SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
Maybe they were fighting the last war; I'm still glad they stopped him, they have also put a halt to McCoy and Forte this season.
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New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks Playoff Thread (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter gianmarco
- Start date
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
Any observations from anyone who watched the Cards win at Seattle?
I saw some of this game.
http://espn.go.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=331222026
[SIZE=medium]It really looked like the Seahawks had that one in hand. Palmer had 4 INTs, 4 sacks and they still won. It certainly put the lie to the Seahawks’ invincibility at home.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]Is there any reason that the Saints can’t get a far better QB performance from Brees and play just this kind of game?[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]Wilson: 11/27/108/1/1 (QBR 49.36)[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]Lynch 18/71/0[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]ARI TOP: 38-22[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]SEA 1st downs: 10[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]I'm going to go ahead and say that PHI's offense is better than Seattle's, a lot better in fact. And this looks a lot like the kind of game that the Saints played Carolina (albeit lost with 20 seconds to go), so why not?[/SIZE]
I saw some of this game.
http://espn.go.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=331222026
[SIZE=medium]It really looked like the Seahawks had that one in hand. Palmer had 4 INTs, 4 sacks and they still won. It certainly put the lie to the Seahawks’ invincibility at home.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]Is there any reason that the Saints can’t get a far better QB performance from Brees and play just this kind of game?[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]Wilson: 11/27/108/1/1 (QBR 49.36)[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]Lynch 18/71/0[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]ARI TOP: 38-22[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]SEA 1st downs: 10[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]I'm going to go ahead and say that PHI's offense is better than Seattle's, a lot better in fact. And this looks a lot like the kind of game that the Saints played Carolina (albeit lost with 20 seconds to go), so why not?[/SIZE]
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Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Brees has to play well from the start; he can't commit any dumb turnovers. When Seattle returned that fumble for a touchdown to make it 10-0 in the earlier game, it was over just like that. If you have to be ultra conservative early, then do it, but you can't let Seattle get off to a quick start at home, or else it will just snowball and they'll pummel you.
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
Their defense isn't close to as good as the cardinals. So no. Seeing what the rams did to the Saints I really say no.
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New Orleans has no where close to the defense that Arizona has, so there's that.
Replacing Robert Turbin with Percy Harvin on special teams will be nice. Plus I could sense Seattle wasn't as amped up for the Cards game as they should have been. They had a nice lead for HFA and let it show. The difference in intensity during the Rams game vs. the Cards game was night and day.
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
Difference in the 12th man was day and night as well.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
Cards played at Philly and lost 24-21, sounds like a very similar defensive performance against a common opponent 5 weeks apart.
Statistically they measure up very well, the Saints have had a problem generating TOs lately so that's a definite weakness.
Still, very poor performance by Wilson and it happened at home.
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SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
I agree; I would love to see them lock it down and be patient enough to play Seattle's game, they can do that.
Breesisdaman
Footballguy
I am kind of shocked to hear anything out of ESPN that remotely favors the Saints but I did find this tidbit interesting.
ESPN post-WC Round special... since AFL/NFL merger... a team that was blown out in the regular season is 13-12 when they've gotten a rematch in the playoffs
ESPN post-WC Round special... since AFL/NFL merger... a team that was blown out in the regular season is 13-12 when they've gotten a rematch in the playoffs
proninja
Footballguy
It is possible that Wilson plays a poor game and the Saints win, yes.
None of what you're saying to support that makes much of any sense though. After having watched both teams this year, I think the Cardinals are a better team than the Saints, especially on D, which is where ARI beat the Seahawks. Could it happen? Sure. Is it likely? No. If the Saints beat the Seahawks they'll probably do it by figuring out the defense and relying on Brees. How likely you think that is is probably going to depend on your geography.
Iwannabeacowboybaby!
Footballguy
The Saints won largely due to their ability to run vs Philly. They will not be able to run putting ridiculous amounts of pressure on Brees who did not look particularly well in the Philly game.
Anything can happen but Seattle should win by 10.
Anything can happen but Seattle should win by 10.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
This was more in the way of a question, not an assertion.
The Cards are not better than the Saints, that's been proven on the field.
Actually I think the key is the defense, not Brees, for a change.
proninja
Footballguy
If you're a believer in the "nobody believes in us" Simmons theory, betting on the Saints would be a good idea
proninja
Footballguy
Much in the same way that the Seahawks are better than the Saints, and that's been proven on the field?
Gadabout
Footballguy
I certainly don't expect them to win. In fact, I wanted to ask you what the percentages were.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
I think I said something like that above, recent example being Baltimore vs Denver last year. But that's a real number, encouraging.
Second bite at the Big Apple apparently.
proninja
Footballguy
proninja
Footballguy
Based on this guy, who I don't know anything about, it would seem that as an 8 point favorite the Seahawks are about 75-80% to win the game. That passes the smell test to me. 
http://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/
http://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/
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SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
Yes, thought of that. The Seahawks are better than the Cards. The Seahawks did beat the hell out of the Saints. The Saints beat the hell out of the Cards in NO. The Seahawks beat the Cards convincingly in AZ and the Cards barely beat the Seahawks in Seattle. I'm not sure the Saints even need to be "better" than the Seahawks, they just have to beat them one game.Much in the same way that the Seahawks are better than the Saints, and that's been proven on the field?
That's why the Cards game intrigues me.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
Pats, by the measure of 5 seconds and one uncalled clothesline hold on Junior Gallette.
Gadabout
Footballguy
proninja
Footballguy
Definitely not. Any given Sunday. Do you think the Saints having a 20-25% chance of winning is about right?Yes, thought of that. The Seahawks are better than the Cards. The Seahawks did beat the hell out of the Saints. The Saints beat the hell out of the Cards in NO. The Seahawks beat the Cards convincingly in AZ and the Cards barely beat the Seahawks in Seattle. I'm not sure the Saints even need to be "better" than the Seahawks, they just have to beat them one game.Much in the same way that the Seahawks are better than the Saints, and that's been proven on the field?
That's why the Cards game intrigues me.
Also, that Cards game was in week 3. That's so long ago it may as well have been televised in black and white.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
That is a really cool and unbelievably complicated and interesting site. Wow.Based on this guy, who I don't know anything about, it would seem that as an 8 point favorite the Seahawks are about 75-80% to win the game. That passes the smell test to me.
http://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/
[SIZE=medium]The record is 21-115 between 1994-2012. Brutal.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]The Saints just won a playoff game with a -2 TO differential; I think the record NBC showed for playoff teams on the road with a negative TO difference was something like 16-165 (or something similar).[/SIZE]
Not Sleeping
Footballguy
Niners fan here...hope the Seahawks lose the rematch, but I will say that that I agree that is just a ####### fantastic play. Lynch is a beast. Pleasure to watch him play. Wilson is fantastic to watch too.
biju
Footballguy
The synopsis of the Cards game is as follows (from a high level):Yes, thought of that. The Seahawks are better than the Cards. The Seahawks did beat the hell out of the Saints. The Saints beat the hell out of the Cards in NO. The Seahawks beat the Cards convincingly in AZ and the Cards barely beat the Seahawks in Seattle. I'm not sure the Saints even need to be "better" than the Seahawks, they just have to beat them one game.Much in the same way that the Seahawks are better than the Saints, and that's been proven on the field?
That's why the Cards game intrigues me.
- Cards stopped the running game up the middle, we don't necessarily excel at bouncing it outside
- The long passes where our WRs usually win the 1-on-1 matchups, they didn't win them. Not a single one if I remember correctly.
- The slant game we never employ, was not used at all.
- On defense, the team played rather well. The winning TD was a perfectly thrown ball and a fantastic catch in great coverage.
- Not to pick on single plays as reasons why the Hawks lost, but the last drive shouldn't have ended on an INT. It would have been the strangest bounce in the history of the game to only be on Baldwin's arm.
Edited to add this:
- Also, we didn't use the whole field. There wasn't any bubble passes, screens, etc. It was a pretty poorly planned game IMO. One of the few Bevell really didn't call well.
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Breesisdaman
Footballguy
Really % wise its a crap shoot not knowing the status of certain injured players that I think will make a difference. I wouldn't venture to guess except the Saints are not favored in any scenario.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
Man, percentages? Off the cuff I'd say 15-20%. Objectively speaking, I thought the spread would be higher. And I cannot honestly say I would bet any real money on the Saints [SIZE=medium]except with extreme odds (30-1?).[/SIZE]Definitely not. Any given Sunday. Do you think the Saints having a 20-25% chance of winning is about right?Yes, thought of that. The Seahawks are better than the Cards. The Seahawks did beat the hell out of the Saints. The Saints beat the hell out of the Cards in NO. The Seahawks beat the Cards convincingly in AZ and the Cards barely beat the Seahawks in Seattle. I'm not sure the Saints even need to be "better" than the Seahawks, they just have to beat them one game.Much in the same way that the Seahawks are better than the Saints, and that's been proven on the field?
That's why the Cards game intrigues me.
Also, that Cards game was in week 3. That's so long ago it may as well have been televised in black and white.
[SIZE=medium]Looking for a ***** in the armor right now, I'm sure the Saints are too.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]Reality is the Seahawks come out extremely pumped up, crazed crowd ravenous for a Lombardi trophy driving energy towards the field; if the Saints have any hope it will have to show early.[/SIZE]
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
Thanks, great to learn stuff here from insiders for the game.The synopsis of the Cards game is as follows (from a high level):Yes, thought of that. The Seahawks are better than the Cards. The Seahawks did beat the hell out of the Saints. The Saints beat the hell out of the Cards in NO. The Seahawks beat the Cards convincingly in AZ and the Cards barely beat the Seahawks in Seattle. I'm not sure the Saints even need to be "better" than the Seahawks, they just have to beat them one game.Much in the same way that the Seahawks are better than the Saints, and that's been proven on the field?
That's why the Cards game intrigues me.
- Cards stopped the running game up the middle, we don't necessarily excel at bouncing it outside
- The long passes where our WRs usually win the 1-on-1 matchups, they didn't win them. Not a single one if I remember correctly.
- The slant game we never employ, was not used at all.
- On defense, the team played rather well. The winning TD was a perfectly thrown ball and a fantastic catch in great coverage.
- Not to pick on single plays as reasons why the Hawks lost, but the last drive shouldn't have ended on an INT. It would have been the strangest bounce in the history of the game to only be on Baldwin's arm.
Edited to add this:
- Also, we didn't use the whole field. There wasn't any bubble passes, screens, etc. It was a pretty poorly planned game IMO. One of the few Bevell really didn't call well.
proninja
Footballguy
I think you'll find that most of us Seahawk fans do in fact play well with othersThanks, great to learn stuff here from insiders for the game.The synopsis of the Cards game is as follows (from a high level):Yes, thought of that. The Seahawks are better than the Cards. The Seahawks did beat the hell out of the Saints. The Saints beat the hell out of the Cards in NO. The Seahawks beat the Cards convincingly in AZ and the Cards barely beat the Seahawks in Seattle. I'm not sure the Saints even need to be "better" than the Seahawks, they just have to beat them one game.Much in the same way that the Seahawks are better than the Saints, and that's been proven on the field?
That's why the Cards game intrigues me.
- Cards stopped the running game up the middle, we don't necessarily excel at bouncing it outside
- The long passes where our WRs usually win the 1-on-1 matchups, they didn't win them. Not a single one if I remember correctly.
- The slant game we never employ, was not used at all.
- On defense, the team played rather well. The winning TD was a perfectly thrown ball and a fantastic catch in great coverage.
- Not to pick on single plays as reasons why the Hawks lost, but the last drive shouldn't have ended on an INT. It would have been the strangest bounce in the history of the game to only be on Baldwin's arm.
Edited to add this:
- Also, we didn't use the whole field. There wasn't any bubble passes, screens, etc. It was a pretty poorly planned game IMO. One of the few Bevell really didn't call well.
biju
Footballguy
Forgot another one, and this was a big one...Thanks, great to learn stuff here from insiders for the game.The synopsis of the Cards game is as follows (from a high level):Yes, thought of that. The Seahawks are better than the Cards. The Seahawks did beat the hell out of the Saints. The Saints beat the hell out of the Cards in NO. The Seahawks beat the Cards convincingly in AZ and the Cards barely beat the Seahawks in Seattle. I'm not sure the Saints even need to be "better" than the Seahawks, they just have to beat them one game.Much in the same way that the Seahawks are better than the Saints, and that's been proven on the field?
That's why the Cards game intrigues me.
- Cards stopped the running game up the middle, we don't necessarily excel at bouncing it outside
- The long passes where our WRs usually win the 1-on-1 matchups, they didn't win them. Not a single one if I remember correctly.
- The slant game we never employ, was not used at all.
- On defense, the team played rather well. The winning TD was a perfectly thrown ball and a fantastic catch in great coverage.
- Not to pick on single plays as reasons why the Hawks lost, but the last drive shouldn't have ended on an INT. It would have been the strangest bounce in the history of the game to only be on Baldwin's arm.
Edited to add this:
- Also, we didn't use the whole field. There wasn't any bubble passes, screens, etc. It was a pretty poorly planned game IMO. One of the few Bevell really didn't call well.
Russell Wilson was off this game. Pretty consistently. As a matter of fact, he's missed a number of passes lately, mostly high. It was actually an interesting problem he had at the beginning of the season as well. I'm not sure what's going on, if he's trying to "improve" and has changed his mechanics, but it needs to stop. The time to fix that stuff is in the offseason, not on a playoff push.
My hope is the Saints worry more about Wilson and let the running game slowly chip away instead.
Kai's Hero
Footballguy
Yes, I'm a big Seahawks fan and while I think Seattle should win I think the experience on Monday night will serve the Saints well. They know the environment they're entering and when you get it handed to you the way they did you learn from it. If the Saints can establish a bit of a running game and keep Drew upright they can compete with Seattle. Interested to see the impact Percy will have on this offense. He's a game changer.
Statorama
Footballguy
I have absolutely no idea where this aggression is coming from. I've said on several occasions that I think the Seahawks are the best team in the NFC and that I'm looking forward to the rematch. I guess believing that the Saints have a punchers chance in this game brings out the rage in Seahawk fans.Can't wait until Valhemorrhoid and Palinorama come in here to tell us how the Saints won a Super Bowl four years ago.
You want insufferable? You got it.
seahawk 17
Footballguy
I have been at a 49'er party and I am drunk. So I will probably save my thoughts for later, but if you want true insight...
1. DR Detroit
2. Proninja
3. Friday Frenzy (But he may be dead)
4. Mad Sweeny (But he will get baited easily and punch you in the mouth.)
1. DR Detroit
2. Proninja
3. Friday Frenzy (But he may be dead)
4. Mad Sweeny (But he will get baited easily and punch you in the mouth.)
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Maybe it was justI have absolutely no idea where this aggression is coming from. I've said on several occasions that I think the Seahawks are the best team in the NFC and that I'm looking forward to the rematch. I guess believing that the Saints have a punchers chance in this game brings out the rage in Seahawk fans.Can't wait until Valhemorrhoid and Palinorama come in here to tell us how the Saints won a Super Bowl four years ago.
You want insufferable? You got it.
by me?I've been watching your work for years, just trying to learn from the master.
proninja
Footballguy
Sure thing, aggroMaybe it was justI have absolutely no idea where this aggression is coming from. I've said on several occasions that I think the Seahawks are the best team in the NFC and that I'm looking forward to the rematch. I guess believing that the Saints have a punchers chance in this game brings out the rage in Seahawk fans.Can't wait until Valhemorrhoid and Palinorama come in here to tell us how the Saints won a Super Bowl four years ago.
You want insufferable? You got it.
Statorama
Footballguy
Hmmm, as are the Saints. Interesting.
The Saints are true underdogs in this game. It'll take a miracle, for sure, to beat The NFC's best team (in their den no less)
The key in my opinion is for the Saints to get on top early and force Seattle to play from behind. Get that crowd out of the game early.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Whole bunch of you guys follow closer than I do, I'm just along for the ride and hope to add content when I can. I thought you were dead for a while there also, glad to see you back in full force.
ITS probably follows as closely as anyone but the whole shtick thing gets in the way. And you forgot Hooper, he's like the the sturdy oak that keeps everyone sane. All those guys go back a long way but there are a lot of new fans around here also. I am not much of a Shark Pool guy anymore, but they all seem somewhat reasonable. Chaz McNulty, biju, General something, some other guys. Not really sure why people think Seahawk fans are so terrible, there just isn't enough of us to get a really good reading. Hell back in 2003 or so I can't remember more than five or six of us.
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Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
biju
Footballguy
I hear this often. I'm going to tell you, the Seattle fans don't really get "out of the game". I can't speak for everyone, but I get myself into a nice drunken stupor and yell until the game ends. This upcoming weekend will be my 4th playoff game live and usually the crowd yells from when the opposing punter catches the ball to when the opposing punter kicks the ball.
It's going to be much, much worse than the last time the Saints were in Seattle. I guarantee it.
proninja
Footballguy
Yeah, I'd put a few guys ahead of you and I when it comes to raw knowledge, GB.Whole bunch of you guys follow closer than I do, I'm just along for the ride and hope to add content when I can. I thought you were dead for a while there also, glad to see you back in full force.
ITS probably follows as closely as anyone but the whole shtick thing gets in the way. And you forgot Hooper, he's like the the sturdy oak that keeps everyone sane. All those guys go back a long way but there are a lot of new fans around here also. I am not much of a Shark Pool guy anymore, but they all seem somewhat reasonable. Chaz McNulty, biju, General something, some other guys. Not really sure why people think Seahawk fans are so terrible, there just isn't enough of us to get a really good reading. Hell back in 2003 or so I can't remember more than five or six of us.
But thanks, S17
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Statorama
Footballguy
Of this, I have no doubts. But there's a certain deflation effect that you can feel when a fanbase feels like the game is slipping away. There's also a slight chance that there are more "playoff fans" here than regular joes. Again, these are likely just "reaches" for a Saints fan looking for hope.
Here's wishing for a great game played by both teams, with no injuries coming to either side.
Side note: The line for this game has had a lot of early action. Opened at 7.5, moved super quick to 8, 8.5, all the way up to 9, but then back down to 8 on most books. The ML is nowhere near good enough for me to play this round (in the 320 range). Pocketing the ML on the opening round felt like a gift as it was.
seahawk 17
Footballguy
ITS knows his stuff, but uses it for evil.
proninja
Footballguy
Yeah, my issue with ITS is pretty much never the core of what he's saying, it's the fact that he acts like a petulant 7th grader while saying itITS knows his stuff, but uses it for evil.
Henry Ford
Footballguy
Brees played a horrendous game in that first Seahawks game, and didn't look much better in the first half of the Eagles game. If that's the QB play the Saints get, it's going to be a blowout by the Seahawks again. If not, though, this should be a tremendous game to watch.
If Keenan Lewis is still out, Seahawks by 14 and the game is over early. If he's back, I think this game is decided by a 4th quarter score.
If Keenan Lewis is still out, Seahawks by 14 and the game is over early. If he's back, I think this game is decided by a 4th quarter score.
seahawk 17
Footballguy
Whole bunch of you guys follow closer than I do, I'm just along for the ride and hope to add content when I can. I thought you were dead for a while there also, glad to see you back in full force.
ITS probably follows as closely as anyone but the whole shtick thing gets in the way. And you forgot Hooper, he's like the the sturdy oak that keeps everyone sane. All those guys go back a long way but there are a lot of new fans around here also. I am not much of a Shark Pool guy anymore, but they all seem somewhat reasonable. Chaz McNulty, biju, General something, some other guys. Not really sure why people think Seahawk fans are so terrible, there just isn't enough of us to get a really good reading. Hell back in 2003 or so I can't remember more than five or six of us.
Right, Hooper also. I am pretty sure that's the six of us starting back to 2003-2004. We gained a lot of fans in 05.
I use to start the team thread and it would go like 3 pages all season, and it was me posting news articles.
Times have changed, and we're getting old.
Not Sleeping
Footballguy
I'll be the first to admit I'm biased, since I want an NFC Championship Game at the Stick. But I don't understand how we got to the point where it would "take a miracle" for a HOF QB backed by a solid (albeit injured!) defense to win this game. I would have thought the line would be Seattle -5. I'm surprised to see it over a TD. Of course, I thought the Saints would give them a game back on that Monday Night affair and they didn't, but still, this is Drew Brees we're talking about.
proninja
Footballguy
Nobody really thinks it would take any reasonable definition of a mirror. By the odds, the Saints have about a 1 in 5 shot at this. I wouldn't call that miracle at all.
