New Projections (1 Viewer)

[Chaser1439]

What is up with LT's ranking. From ranking 2 in a PPR league to 13th? Is there any basis for the radical drop?

 

[David Dodds]

I have soured on LT immensely this season. A RBs skills (or bodies break down) go quickly (just look at Shaun Alexander, Curtis Martin, etc recently). LT has a ton of mileage on this body. But what scares me away even more is how good Darren Sproles looked running behind this same line last year. I think this will be LTs last year as a Charger and I just don't see a scenario where they don't try and involve Sproles a lot more in this offense. Taking carries away and some TDs and LT got passed by quite a few players.

 

[jsharlan]

I have soured on LT immensely this season. A RBs skills (or bodies break down) go quickly (just look at Shaun Alexander, Curtis Martin, etc recently). LT has a ton of mileage on this body. But what scares me away even more is how good Darren Sproles looked running behind this same line last year. I think this will be LTs last year as a Charger and I just don't see a scenario where they don't try and involve Sproles a lot more in this offense. Taking carries away and some TDs and LT got passed by quite a few players.

LT is under contract until 2012. Sproles is a free agent in 2010.

 

[Chaser1439]

I have soured on LT immensely this season. A RBs skills (or bodies break down) go quickly (just look at Shaun Alexander, Curtis Martin, etc recently). LT has a ton of mileage on this body. But what scares me away even more is how good Darren Sproles looked running behind this same line last year. I think this will be LTs last year as a Charger and I just don't see a scenario where they don't try and involve Sproles a lot more in this offense. Taking carries away and some TDs and LT got passed by quite a few players.

Obviously I respect your opinion Mr. Dodds, but I feel like you are over looking the facts in this situation. LT coming off to injuries last year (turf toe, and pulled groin) which led to LT's decline (not knee injuries like Martin or other old backs). As I am sure you know he still finishes as the 7th best RB in ppr leagues. LT being healthy in training camp is the key for me. If he is healthy I am putting my stones on the line and selecting him 3rd pick overall in a 12 person PPR BIG $ league. I personally do not feel that Sproles at 5'6 can handle as many carries as it would take to detract from a healthy LT. The rookie that SD signed scares me a little bit, but I think the chargers number 1 priority will be to win, and LT gives them the best opportunity to do that! They have a myriad of weapons at their disposal, but the coaching staff has committed to the run to control the pace of the game. I have 2 weeks to decide so I will see how this situation fleshes itself out. Thanks for the comment!

 

[mikel0254]

David - Question for you. Whose rankings are in the 163 Cheatsheets? I know Clayton puts it out, but it doesn't look like his rankings. They kind of resemble yours, but I can't really tell where these are coming from.

Also, is the defense updated? The one I'm looking at has CHI as the number 1 DEF, and it looks like highest any of you have them ranked is 6

 

[David Dodds]

David - Question for you. Whose rankings are in the 163 Cheatsheets? I know Clayton puts it out, but it doesn't look like his rankings. They kind of resemble yours, but I can't really tell where these are coming from.Also, is the defense updated? The one I'm looking at has CHI as the number 1 DEF, and it looks like highest any of you have them ranked is 6

It uses my projections and he runs the VBD App against those scoring rules.

 

[Couch Potato]

I have soured on LT immensely this season. A RBs skills (or bodies break down) go quickly (just look at Shaun Alexander, Curtis Martin, etc recently). LT has a ton of mileage on this body. But what scares me away even more is how good Darren Sproles looked running behind this same line last year. I think this will be LTs last year as a Charger and I just don't see a scenario where they don't try and involve Sproles a lot more in this offense. Taking carries away and some TDs and LT got passed by quite a few players.

Alexander was always regarded as soft but was the beneficiary of a great OL. He then had the foot problem, didn't run, the OL got old and he couldn't make yards on his own, and Alexander was toast.Curtis Martin won the rushing title at 32. He had a ton of mileage prior to that too. The difference between him and SAlex was that he stayed in top shape.

LT stays in great shape. He turned 30 in June. I've done a fair amount of studying RB ages and drop offs, and I think LT has 2009 and 2010 still in him at a high level. At 32 I'm worried; at 30 I'm still riding with him. I think he's a great value this year because so many, like you apparently, are writing him off a couple years prematurely.

Also this, from an interview with Norv turner five days ago:

http://www3.signonsandiego.com/stories/200...-grow/?chargers

What did you see from LT this offseason?

"No. 1, he's really focused and determined. I think his mindset is that he's excited to have a great year. I didn't see any physical limitations at all from his injuries. I liked what I saw in terms of the explosiveness."

What do you expect from him, since Darren Sproles will have a slightly larger role in the offense?

"I would expect LT to be among the top three or four rushers in the league. And depending how our season goes and the games go, he'll be a factor in the rushing title. Darren is going to complement him. But Darren's starting point is in the return game and we'll pick our spots with him on offense."

 

[David Dodds]

I am just going but what I saw and Sproles was the man in that offense. He can't be a 20-25 carry back, but he will be getting on the field more this season (well if Norv Turner knows what he is doing so I could be wrong here). LT has been dinged the last few years, has a lot of mileage, won't likely be back with the Chargers in 2010. I think all of these are indications we will see reduced carries for LT. It's not like I have him at RB20 or something. I still have him among the leaders, just not the top 3 spot he usually commands.

 

[TheFanatic]

I am just going but what I saw and Sproles was the man in that offense. He can't be a 20-25 carry back, but he will be getting on the field more this season (well if Norv Turner knows what he is doing so I could be wrong here). LT has been dinged the last few years, has a lot of mileage, won't likely be back with the Chargers in 2010. I think all of these are indications we will see reduced carries for LT. It's not like I have him at RB20 or something. I still have him among the leaders, just not the top 3 spot he usually commands.

This may be the biggest motivating factor he has. This may get him to play through injuries he may have sat for in the past...Also he is currently 14th on the career rushing list. 1K yards puts him in the top 7. 2K puts him in the top 5. I know he's not rushing foir 2K this year but he could over the next two so he may be playing harder this year to help establish his legacy.

He's also 11th on the career yards from scrimmage. He needs 2600 yards from scrimmage to pass Barry Sanders and break the top 5. He'll never see the top 4 as Faulk has 1K more yards than Sanders.

 

[VonRomig]

He is being overcome by man-crushes on other RBs... and he is now 30.

Von

 

[Joe Bryant]

wow Garts. Your comment really helped out! Maybe you should attempt a new career in comedy! I see LT having a breakout year, and you are clearly a jabrone!

3 responses..yippe...search Tomlinson and add your comment instead of tieing up the Shark Pool with useless garbage.

It's a legit thread. LT dropped recently and he wanted to know why. Rather than tack this onto an old thread he made a new one. Lighten up

Exactly. It happens every year in August but the tool factor is definitely on the rise. Expect to be looking for a new board to post on if you are unable to be cool to other posters here. TIA.J

 

[gibfunk]

He is being overcome by man-crushes on other RBs... and he is now 30.Von

 

[gheemony]

I have soured on LT immensely this season. A RBs skills (or bodies break down) go quickly (just look at Shaun Alexander, Curtis Martin, etc recently). LT has a ton of mileage on this body. But what scares me away even more is how good Darren Sproles looked running behind this same line last year. I think this will be LTs last year as a Charger and I just don't see a scenario where they don't try and involve Sproles a lot more in this offense. Taking carries away and some TDs and LT got passed by quite a few players.

David:a great feature to add would be some way to see how your rankings change with each new round. I used your July 4 projections for a draft a week ago. I have another in two weeks and it would be helpful to see what has changed since. in fact, it would be a very cool feature if i could track each set of projections. Maybe the player pages can have a chart that shows how your projections have changes each time. It would be a nice way to see how news is impacting your thinking and will help folks to start good threads like this one.Thanks!

 

[benm3218]

I am just going but what I saw and Sproles was the man in that offense. He can't be a 20-25 carry back, but he will be getting on the field more this season (well if Norv Turner knows what he is doing so I could be wrong here). LT has been dinged the last few years, has a lot of mileage, won't likely be back with the Chargers in 2010. I think all of these are indications we will see reduced carries for LT. It's not like I have him at RB20 or something. I still have him among the leaders, just not the top 3 spot he usually commands.

The writing is on the wall. I don't care if he had turf toe or was banged up. If you watched him play last year, he didn't look hurt. He looked old. And Sproles looked electric. Sproles was too good to not have on the field more this year. Even if he only takes 5 carries form LT a game that will be significant to his scoring... And if LT looks old again this year, it wouldn't surprise me to see him not in on the goal line. Sproles was MONEY within 20 yards last year, and now they got this new kid...

 

[LTsharks]

I am just going but what I saw and Sproles was the man in that offense. He can't be a 20-25 carry back, but he will be getting on the field more this season (well if Norv Turner knows what he is doing so I could be wrong here). LT has been dinged the last few years, has a lot of mileage, won't likely be back with the Chargers in 2010. I think all of these are indications we will see reduced carries for LT. It's not like I have him at RB20 or something. I still have him among the leaders, just not the top 3 spot he usually commands.

Also, if you look at the projections there is only 7.2 points separating RB5 from RB12. LT is at RB10 but really Dodds has him with a group of 8 RBs that are within 0.5 pt/game of each other. That is a group of RBs that could really determine the fate of a lot of fantasy teams this year.