New Strategies (1 Viewer)

[wickster33]

Even with 2 weeks to go, its apparent that the world of fantasy football has changed. In my league which gives limited credit for performance (1 pt for 4 receptions, 1 pt for 25 yds running or receiving, and 1 pt for 150 yds passing and every 50 yards thereafter), here is how the top 10 scorers looked:

2005 - 5 RBs, 2 QBs, 1 WR

2006 - 6 RB, 2 QBs, 0 WR

2007 - 3 RB, 5 QBs, 2 QRs

moreover, the difference between the 6th rated QB and the 12th rated guy is 5points (140 to 89) Not surprisingly no team without a top 6 quarterback made it to our playoffs.

You'd think with all the QB scoring, you'd see a lot more WR scoring, but that just hasn't been the case. In fact, the point differential from th 6th best WR to the 18th is only 27 points (114 to 87). Similarly, the difference between the 6th best running back and the 18th is 35 points (110-75).

What does this mean? It seems to me that the offenses have become more diversified. There looks to be more passing, but it ends up being split among 8 or 9 receivers. Only a handful of receivers regularly receive 10 targets. The rules that penalize defenses for breathing on receivers during their routes make it much more profitable to heave the pigskin around. Even the traditional running offenses like Jacksonvile and Minnesota are splitting carries among multible running backs. A 20 carry game has almost become the exception.

What are the fantasy impacts? 11 running backs in the first round just doesn't make sense anymore. If you can't get one of the 4 or 5 guys who will get all the carries on a good running team, you might as well wait and grab a mediocre back late. You need to roster one of the top 5 QBs. If you know the rest of the league will wait for their QBs, fine. But if you get shut out, you're in for a long season.

Thats just my quick slant on this years numbers. Anyone else have a different theory?

 

[Challenge Everything]

Get rid of the mandatory 2 RB requirement in leagues with more than 12 teams.

Use a few different starting requirements instead of having each team fill out the same starting requirement format.

Lastly, if the NFL keeps having a couple weeks where there are six teams on bye... fantasy football should adapt and make those two weeks into one game. You lose a game in total unless you incorporate 3 teams play each other those two weeks with a combined score thus giving the end result of those teams a record of 2-0, 1-1, or 0-2. I could see that being used. These weeks could also be set aside as division weeks with those leagues that have 3 teams per division. Unless the NFL makes more weeks with six teams on bye or makes that the norm... something fantasy wise should be done with these weeks.

The argument can be made that one team may have 2 or 3 guys out during those weeks but one team may not and thus gain an advantage between two teams that may be affected by the byes... but combining scores would give those teams at least one week with their intended yearly lineup, per se.

 

[reg]

it's only one year... hard to say if it is a new trend, or simply one year abberation.

 

[wickster33]

it's only one year... hard to say if it is a new trend, or simply one year abberation.

THats true Reg, but you want to be in front of the trends, not behind them. I don't have the long term stats to back things up, but it just seems to ba a much more pass friendly league than it was just a few years ago. Defenses really know how to stop the run now. 3rd and three is a passing down (usually from the shotgun) and I can never remember more 4th and 1 runs getting stuffed.CE, my league has already gone to the start 1 mandatory running back. Again, it is almost always better to stick a WR in the flex this year.

 

[FantasyTrader]

This year saw a great deal of attrition to many big name players. The problem with looking at year end stats like you did fails to account for injuries. End of year, it certainly looks like teams sprayed the ball all over the field but there is a difference between what a team did because it had to and what they would have done if they COULD.

Marvin Harrison for instance, would have ensured a much less diversified target portfolio for Manning.

Did the Seahawks really WANT 4 startable fantasy options at WR? Probably not. A healthy Branch/Hackett most likely trim down Hasselbeck's targets.

Just something to consider.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

People will draft next year based on the aberrations of 2007.

That's a good thing, as it will benefit seasoned FF vets who know that things will likely return to more normalcy next season.

Brady and Romo, for example, will still go too early. So will rookie RBs thanks to ADP.

WR vets and veteran RBs will still be huge values.

RBBC is more here to stay than ever, so RB depth / stockpiling will be key.

 

[s_ezy]

People will draft next year based on the aberrations of 2007.That's a good thing, as it will benefit seasoned FF vets who know that things will likely return to more normalcy next season.Brady and Romo, for example, will still go too early. So will rookie RBs thanks to ADP.WR vets and veteran RBs will still be huge values.RBBC is more here to stay than ever, so RB depth / stockpiling will be key.

it seems as though RBs in RBBC are a good thing to own.ADP, Marion Barber, Fred Taylor, DeShaun Foster have all out produced there ADP this year, and i believe its because having another RB to spell them allows them to not be over worked. Featured back will be more popular to the FF croud but there is something to having your RB fresh all season long and not worn down.

 

[scooterg61]

no matter what you see.. when it comes down to week 15 and 16 for fantasy bowls.. your main guys are still RBS by far.... look at week 15.. how many big WRS WENT OFF????? HOW MANY QBS WENT OFF???.. now.. how many rbs went off??..LT,AP,JALEWIS AND SEVERAL OTHERS.. PLEASE.. LOOK AT THIS AND DRAFT WR AND QB.. so i can get the rbs to win.. and you dont need a top 6 qb to win.. i am in fantasy bowl with.. palmer,warner and hass sharing week to week.. my big help is my RBS are going off now..earlier in year.. i had edwards and housh..... when they both got hot.. i traded for rbs.. got lt and ja lewis.. needless to say.. edwards is not close to what he was say in week 3-12 and housh has dissappeared.. but jamal and lt have taken off.... it is still the #1 thing to have.. rbs!! by far

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

People will draft next year based on the aberrations of 2007.That's a good thing, as it will benefit seasoned FF vets who know that things will likely return to more normalcy next season.Brady and Romo, for example, will still go too early. So will rookie RBs thanks to ADP.WR vets and veteran RBs will still be huge values.RBBC is more here to stay than ever, so RB depth / stockpiling will be key.

it seems as though RBs in RBBC are a good thing to own.ADP, Marion Barber, Fred Taylor, DeShaun Foster have all out produced there ADP this year, and i believe its because having another RB to spell them allows them to not be over worked. Featured back will be more popular to the FF croud but there is something to having your RB fresh all season long and not worn down.

Veteran RBs in a newly formed RBBC will always represent value.Fred Taylor (MJD).Foster (De. Williams).Deuce McAllister was a bargain (R Bush) before the injury.Look for teams that draft RBs and grab the veteran.