Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Here's a chance for everyone to voice their opinions on the playoff games this weekend.
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New York Jets @ San Diego Chargers (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Chase Stuart
- Start date
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Off ESPN.comThe wild-card round has featured 18 contests in which teams played once in the regular season. The club that captured the regular-season matchup also prevailed in the wild-card game 10 times.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
A couple of interesting facts here:Both the Jets and Chargers rank top five in rush attempts and bottom five in pass attempts. I think everyone knows the Jets run the ball as often as any team outside of Pittsburgh, but I'm surprised to see Martyball still in effect. All you hear about is Drew Brees and Antonio Gates, but SD really doesn't pass the ball.The Chargers pass defense let up over 4,000 yards, but I'm not sure an ailing Chad Pennington can exploit them. This game comes down to strength against strength IMO:The leader rusher in the NFL (Martin and Jordan combined for a league high 2100+ yards) vs. one of the best run Ds in the league. (SD ranks third against the run).The Jets have run AT WILL against the weak teams in the NFL, but have been stopped against the elite units.In Pittsburgh (number one against the run), Martin and Jordan ran 27 times for just 82 yards. (3.0)Against New England (number six against the run) in two games, Martin and Jordan ran 38 times for 130 yards (3.4)Against Buffalo (number seven against the run, third in yards per rush) in two games, Martin and Jordan ran 43 times for 146 yards (3.4).Against San Diego, they ran 33/121 -- 3.7.The Jets need to average 4.0 yards per rush to win this game, something San Diego typically does not allow.
my man otis
Footballguy
current voting stands at 36-4 for SD?I didn't think fans across the country were that down on the Jets (incl. the line).Tough for me to get a good feel as I don't get to see any team besides the Jets and Giants play on most Sundays. The only SD game I've seen all year is when the Jets beat them early on.
Shrek
Having a great season
I think you cut right to the heart of the matter and deciphered EXACTLY what Chase was saying. Quoting statistics my ###....and therefore the team who won the regular-season matchup ended up LOSING the wild-card game 8 times.10-8? Yeah, sounds like a lock-tight trend to me.
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
Here comes Marty-ball with a TON of LDT, and that's fine, for now anyway. Pennington, and I'm a rather large fan, is awful right now. Something is wrong. SD is good at stopping the run, the Jets strength. They need Penny to difuse that, but he won't be able to.Make no mistake about it, the Jets did want that win last week, for some momentum. Didn't happen. They have tried to get anything going of late, but it's not there. SD is indeed, for real. I was a skeptic...no longer. Feel good story getting overblown, or not, they could care less. This team is solid, very confident, and at home. Game over.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Who says it's a lock tight trend?...and therefore the team who won the regular-season matchup ended up LOSING the wild-card game 8 times.10-8? Yeah, sounds like a lock-tight trend to me.
cstu
Footballguy
That's the big reason I don't think the Jets will win. If Pennington is healthy he could exploit the Chargers pass defense, but with a sore arm that is going to be difficult. I look for the Jets to keep it close, but the Chargers are playing too well right now to lose at home. I just watched them dismantle the Chiefs with their scrubs and the team just looks like they are firing on all cylinders. Barring a game changing injury, the game is a virtual lock for the Chargers.
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
Exactly what I'm sayin'. I wonder how many supporting the Jets (especially in the Gambling thread in the FFA) have seen his last two games. :quack:
Ronnie Mack
Footballguy
Guys remember its the playoffs- a new season- This one will be very close- the Jets dominated earlier and match up well the Chargers. I see low scoring 17-13 either way.
sdsjr3
Footballguy
I voted J-E-T-S.....because I'm a homer!
But the bottom line is that the Jets D won't lose this game. They really are as good as advertised. Quick, young, and Abraham should be healthy.The Jets O WILL lose this game. Hackett sucks...badly!Sonny, you got it right, Chad is in trouble right now. No strength, and he doesn't look either comfortable or confident. It's not like there aren't talented WRs on this team. And if they aren't getting the ball (and they aren't dropping it mind you) the blame can not be pointed at them. Therefore it's either the Pass Protection, O-Coord, or the QB. Well, there is almost always a pocket for Chad to stand in. So that leaves Hackett and Chad. AFter they blow this game, Hackett will hopefully be fired.My bigger fear however has nothing to do with this game. I worry that Chad's problem is something that will not go away. He didn't look right from day one this year so the shoulder injury can't be blamed for that.It seems to be implicit in the very fact that ESPN dug up this factoid and published it.Put another way, the ESPN note in your MIN vs. GB thread is an example of an interesting fact:Who says it's a lock tight trend?...and therefore the team who won the regular-season matchup ended up LOSING the wild-card game 8 times.10-8? Yeah, sounds like a lock-tight trend to me.
Now THAT is insightful.But ESPN telling me that repeat matchups in the wild card round result in a 10-8 record for the regular-season victor? Uh, not so much.
-MR
cstu
Footballguy
The Chargers aren't buying into the hype at all. The type of guys that they have (LT, Brees, etc.) aren't the kind that will fall into that. I also think they are amazed themselves at how well they are playing and won't take it for granted. To me they are the scariest team in the playoffs since they feel they have nothing to lose. The Jets as the underdog still have to explain back in NY why they lost while the fans in SD would be cheering for them regardless of a loss. The excitement over just having a playoff game in SD is tremendous.
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Chase Stuart
Footballguy
I understand your point. I think I just read it a different way. You KNOW someone is wondering "how often does the team that win in the regular season win in the playoffs?" From an educational standpoint, that 10-8 record is something that should be shown--whether it proves something or not.What I think it DOES prove is that the winner of the regular season game doesn't have much of an edge in the playoff game. And for some readers, that IS something to learn.It seems to be implicit in the very fact that ESPN dug up this factoid and published it.Put another way, the ESPN note in your MIN vs. GB thread is an example of an interesting fact:Who says it's a lock tight trend?...and therefore the team who won the regular-season matchup ended up LOSING the wild-card game 8 times.10-8? Yeah, sounds like a lock-tight trend to me.
Now THAT is insightful.But ESPN telling me that repeat matchups in the wild card round result in a 10-8 record for the regular-season victor? Uh, not so much.
-MR
houndirish
Footballguy
I too am amazed at how lopsided the consensus is on this game. I like San Diego primarily because the Jets haven't played well versus the best competition they've faced but the thought of the Jets beating the Chargers doesn't seem shocking. I'd have guessed this line would've been 4.5 to 5, not a TD.
their points scored & allowed.
----------
Jets (18th offense, 3rd defense) = 18+3 = 21
Chargers (3rd offense, 11th defense) 3+11 = 14
Translation: Interesting matchup of an offensive and defensive club.
Offensive/Defensive Efficienies:
-----------
O:Jets 5258 yards, 304 points = 17.30
D:Jets 4399 yards, 229 points = 19.21
O:Chargers 5321 yards, 422 points = 12.61
D:Chargers 4917 yards, 296 points = 16.61
Translation: A split decision here, again showing the Chargers have the better offense but the Jets have the better defense.
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Ints-Ints Thrown
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Jets 17-11 = +6
Chargers 19-7 = +12
These are two good ratios. Note, the Chargers have the best ratio among all playoff teams. This stat picked the two super bowl participants in 2002, and it picked the Patriots vs Eagles last year, which almost happened.
This is the matchup I'm most on the fence about, actually. I'm going to use that last ratio to make my selection.
Pick: Chargers
----------
Jets (18th offense, 3rd defense) = 18+3 = 21
Chargers (3rd offense, 11th defense) 3+11 = 14
Translation: Interesting matchup of an offensive and defensive club.
Offensive/Defensive Efficienies:
-----------
O:Jets 5258 yards, 304 points = 17.30
D:Jets 4399 yards, 229 points = 19.21
O:Chargers 5321 yards, 422 points = 12.61
D:Chargers 4917 yards, 296 points = 16.61
Translation: A split decision here, again showing the Chargers have the better offense but the Jets have the better defense.
----------
Ints-Ints Thrown
----------
Jets 17-11 = +6
Chargers 19-7 = +12
These are two good ratios. Note, the Chargers have the best ratio among all playoff teams. This stat picked the two super bowl participants in 2002, and it picked the Patriots vs Eagles last year, which almost happened.
This is the matchup I'm most on the fence about, actually. I'm going to use that last ratio to make my selection.
Pick: Chargers
Jason Wood
Zoo York
I picked San Diego, because I figure now's as good a time as any to start paying them the respect they've earned all year. I kept waiting for the wheels to fall off but that hasn't happened.NY is in a state of disarray. Aside from losing their last two, the writing is already on the wall for Paul Hackett to be replaced, and for Pennington to get offseason surgery (more than likely) which doesn't, IMHO, speak of a team ready and confident to make a deep playoff run.
Iwannabeacowboybaby!
Footballguy
This is the case of 2 teams going in 2 different directions. Chargers easily.
BoltzNBrew
Footballguy
I have been listening to the local radio stations this week. Chargers are ready and pumped!! They practiced at the Q yesterday with some of the Chargers wearing NYJ jerseys to get a feel for the game. Someone also called into the radio station and said he was at a bar with a bunch of Jets players and they were all getting hammered :grainofsalt: . The turf was replaced but it has been raining for a week now. We are expecting non stop torrential rain for the next 4 days so the game is most likely going to be played in the slop. There is also talk of possible flooding at the Q, John Madden get your hip waders. I fully expect the media to eat up the horrible conditions at the Q further aiding the push for a new stadium. I just hope the San Diego River doesn't spill over into the parking lot or we are in trouble of having the game postponed.The city is buzzing, the Q will be jam packed and LOUD. Also, Keenan McCardell will play.
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
I just think the SD attack, if it begins to find a rhythm early, can be too well-balanced for a NY D that is much stronger defending the run that it is the pass. Granted, they are better than SD in this arena, but I just think that the game plan cn be fluid enough for Brees to keep the Jets back on their toes.Set up the game running LT2. As the Jets begin cheating up into the box, test them downfield or across the middle of the field. The Jets have decent sized linebackers, but I think Abraham, Barrett and Tongue can't cover Gates coming off the line.I predict the Chargers win 28-24, the game ball going to Gates.
Jason Wood
Zoo York
I credit the D...HOWEVER, no John Abraham = very different Jets DLayer in the cross country travel, the utter lack of momentum, the negative sentiment, a banged up Chad Pennington, and the fact that the Chargers are a better team and this isn't going to be as close as Jets fans hope.
Reaper
Footballguy
When healthy the Jets stood toe to toe with New England and Pitt and Beat SD....Their best players on both sides of the ball are hurting.I picked the Jets but, I'm hoping (Praying) Chad can throw better (Practice reports are encouraging) and I'm hoping Abraham comes in on passing downs......
What's to expose? - They played well when healthy and they played poorly when not.There's no mystery - It's not a deep team this is one team that desperately needed their best 2 players to make a run.
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
You would have seen butterflies in the Indy game. None. Highly doubt you see it IN San Diego. Maybe next week, not this one.
brednbuddah
Footballguy
I'm expecting Mud Bowl II. (hopefully different results for the Jets).Take the Jets +6.5 and the under.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
I'm not so sure about that, maybe it's just gamesmanship but Abrams does not sound like a sure thing this week, and doesn't sound like he'll be 100% even if he plays. Without a pass rush the Jets D could be in for trouble.I think the Chargers will win this one, but if I were betting I'd take the points (and thereby the Jets).
BoltzNBrew
Footballguy
NY Daily NewsSorry pal, there is a big difference between a week 2 matchup and a playoff game in San Diego. Dude is in for a rude awakening. I have been hearing a lot of lame reasons why the Chargers will lose from Marty is not happy with his contract to the team is inexperienced to the fans are lame. Problem is none of that crap has anything to do with the players on the field. I am amused by the haters desperate attempts to keep thier listeners/readers happy.
Shrek
Having a great season
pffffffffftttttttThis lame drum keeps getting beaten, but the tune is getting old. While I agree that the Chargers will probably win (I am picking them in a close one), and that articles like the one you linked to are stupid drivel, let's not talk Charger smack until one of two things happens.A) They win ANY game in the playoffs (how long has that been?)B) They beat the Jets once this yearSo far, it's Jets 1, Chargers 0. Give up the "Well it ain't week 2 anymore" crap. I think we all understand that they are playing better.
cstu
Footballguy
:rotflmao: at Jets fans getting excited that they will win this game. The Jets could certainly win this game, but everything is going in the Chargers favor. If the Chargers lose it will be a huge choke and from watching them all season I don't see them as a team that will fold up in a huge game.
BoltzNBrew
Footballguy
Just started raining 10 miles north of the Q. Not real heavy just yet but by looking at the radar we are going to get dumped on.
cstu
Footballguy
With comments like "Give up the "Well it ain't week 2 anymore" crap." it sounds like you are still thinking they are the same Chargers (as well as the same Jets) as week 2 - even though you are giving the win to the Chargers "in a close one".Perhaps "getting excited" was the wrong phrase and I should have said "getting their hopes up".
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Brodie8307
Footballguy
Abraham & Chrebet OUTSammy Davis OUTMcCardell INRaining in SD according to Michele Tafoya at QComm. Wind not a problem early.. picking up late in the game. Field looked to be covered, but it was a bad camera angle.
Shrek
Having a great season
Actually, my point was more that Chargers fans sound like the 12 hours of sports talk radio that our local radio stations carry. Saying "Well, I have news for you, it ain't week 2 anymore" is:1) Getting old- most NFL fans understand that we have progressed past week 2.2) Unoriginal- come up with your own observations.3) Not exactly chock full of good analysis.4) A weak battle cry. I guess I am just looking for someone to point out a good reason why the Chargers will beat the Jets (and some crazy people are saying by 20+ points) without saying, "Well I know one thing for sure, it sure isn't week 2 anymore."With comments like "Give up the "Well it ain't week 2 anymore" crap." it sounds like you are still thinking they are the same Chargers (as well as the same Jets) as week 2 - even though you are giving the win to the Chargers "in a close one".Perhaps "getting excited" was the wrong phrase and I should have said "getting their hopes up".
madviking10
Footballguy
Need Tomlinson to show up big for my playoff league.
THE REAPER
Footballguy
Me too.
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