NFL 2009 Over/Unders (1 Viewer)

[Blackjacks]

Who do you all like?

I like

Arizona over 8.5 (screw the runner up in the superbowl curse)

Atlanta under 8.5 (haven't had back to back winning seasons in team history)

Chicago over 8.5 (I like this team to win the division, 10-6)

Cleveland under 7 (I don't think I have to explain this too much)

Denver under 7 (see Cleveland, horrible offseason)

New Orleans over 9 (I think they have helped the defense in free agency and the draft and I like New Orleans to go to the superbowl this year)

NYG under 10 (I just don't see how they are going to score points this year)

San Diego over 9.5 (Most talented team in the AFC playing in the worst division in the NFL)

Love the bolded ones

9/13/2009 Arizona Cardinals regular season wins

601 Over 8½ reg season wins +100

602 Under 8½ reg season wins -120

9/13/2009 Atlanta Falcons regular season wins

603 Over 8½ reg season wins -110

604 Under 8½ reg season wins -110

9/13/2009 Baltimore Ravens regular season wins

605 Over 8½ reg season wins -165

606 Under 8½ reg season wins +145

9/14/2009 Buffalo Bills regular season wins

607 Over 8 reg season wins +115

608 Under 8 reg season wins -135

9/13/2009 Carolina Panthers regular season wins

609 Over 8½ reg season wins +100

610 Under 8½ reg season wins -120

9/13/2009 Chicago Bears regular season wins

611 Over 8½ reg season wins -135

612 Under 8½ reg season wins +115

9/13/2009 Cincinnati Bengals regular season wins

613 Over 6½ reg season wins -120

614 Under 6½ reg season wins +100

9/13/2009 Cleveland Browns regular season wins

615 Over 7 reg season wins +165

616 Under 7 reg season wins -185

9/13/2009 Dallas Cowboys regular season wins

617 Over 9 reg season wins -130

618 Under 9 reg season wins +110

9/13/2009 Denver Broncos regular season wins

619 Over 7 reg season wins +100

620 Under 7 reg season wins -120

9/13/2009 Detroit Lions regular season wins

621 Over 4½ reg season wins -115

622 Under 4½ reg season wins -105

9/13/2009 Green Bay Packers regular season wins

623 Over 8½ reg season wins -120

624 Under 8½ reg season wins +100

9/13/2009 Houston Texans regular season wins

625 Over 8½ reg season wins +120

626 Under 8½ reg season wins -140

9/13/2009 Indianapolis Colts regular season wins

627 Over 10 reg season wins -105

628 Under 10 reg season wins -115

9/13/2009 Jacksonville Jaguars regular season wins

629 Over 8 reg season wins -120

630 Under 8 reg season wins +100

9/13/2009 Kansas City Chiefs regular season wins

631 Over 6 reg season wins +110

632 Under 6 reg season wins -130

9/13/2009 Miami Dolphins regular season wins

635 Over 7 reg season wins +100

636 Under 7 reg season wins -120

9/14/2009 New England Patriots regular season wins

637 Over 11½ reg season wins -120

638 Under 11½ reg season wins +100

9/13/2009 New Orleans Saints regular season wins

639 Over 9 reg season wins -110

640 Under 9 reg season wins -110

9/13/2009 New York Giants regular season wins

641 Over 10 reg season wins +130

642 Under 10 reg season wins -150

9/13/2009 New York Jets regular season wins

643 Over 7 reg season wins -160

644 Under 7 reg season wins +140

9/14/2009 Oakland Raiders regular season wins

645 Over 6 reg season wins +115

646 Under 6 reg season wins -135

9/13/2009 Philadelphia Eagles regular season wins

647 Over 9½ reg season wins -140

648 Under 9½ reg season wins +120

9/10/2009 Pittsburgh Steelers regular season wins

649 Over 10½ reg season wins -125

650 Under 10½ reg season wins +105

9/14/2009 San Diego Chargers regular season wins

651 Over 9½ reg season wins -140

652 Under 9½ reg season wins +120

9/13/2009 San Francisco 49ers regular season wins

653 Over 7 reg season wins -165

654 Under 7 reg season wins +145

9/13/2009 Seattle Seahawks regular season wins

655 Over 7½ reg season wins -120

656 Under 7½ reg season wins +100

9/13/2009 St Louis Rams regular season wins

657 Over 5½ reg season wins -135

658 Under 5½ reg season wins +115

9/13/2009 Tampa Bay Buccaneers regular season wins

659 Over 6½ reg season wins -105

660 Under 6½ reg season wins -115

9/10/2009 Tennessee Titans regular season wins

661 Over 9 reg season wins -130

662 Under 9 reg season wins +110

9/13/2009 Washington Redskins regular season wins

663 Over 8½ reg season wins +135

664 Under 8½ reg season wins -155

 

[Norseman]

What about Minnesota?

 

[SuperJohn96]

What about Minnesota?

HA! They're probably waiting on Favre!

 

[kwille]

Vikings missing from the list ... hmmm

I like:

9/13/2009 Denver Broncos regular season wins

620 Under 7 reg season wins -120

9/13/2009 Seattle Seahawks regular season wins

655 Over 7½ reg season wins -120

9/13/2009 Philadelphia Eagles regular season wins

647 Over 9½ reg season wins -140

9/13/2009 Arizona Cardinals regular season wins

601 Over 8½ reg season wins +100

 

[Bills_Fan11]

Buffalo under 8. I think they'll be a better team than last year but it won't show up in the record. Similar to what someone mentioned with ATL in another thread, they go from playing the AFC West and NFC West to AFC South and NFC South. Ouch. Losing a home game doesn't help either (I thought Toronto would be like GB playing in Milwaukee but I was wrong).

Green Bay over 8.5. They squashed some teams and lost close games last year. I think they're closer to '07. Maybe not 12-4, but good enough. Not a bad schedule either.

 

[runner06]

Best bet

9/13/2009 Indianapolis Colts regular season wins

627 Over 10 reg season wins -105

628 Under 10 reg season wins -115

The Colts have won 12 or more game five straight seasons and 10 or more games six straight seasons. Sure Dungy retired, but they still have Manning. Plus their offensive linemen (which was really young last year) have another year (or in a lot of cases one year) of experience now. I can't see them winning less then 10 games unless Manning suffers a season ending injury.

2nd best bet

9/13/2009 Denver Broncos regular season wins

619 Over 7 reg season wins +100

620 Under 7 reg season wins -120

Terrible offseason - the worst I can remember.

3rd best bet

9/14/2009 San Diego Chargers regular season wins

651 Over 9½ reg season wins -140

652 Under 9½ reg season wins +120

Went 8-8 last season despite a ton of injuries and terrible luck. The other three teams in their division probably won't be very good (Chiefs, Raiders, and Broncos) so they should be able to get to 10 wins.

4th best bet

9/13/2009 New York Giants regular season wins

641 Over 10 reg season wins +130

642 Under 10 reg season wins -150

Added a lot of solid players this offseason. They should at least get to 10 wins and probably more.

 

[simmonjm]

(I think this one is the best bet)

9/13/2009 Cincinnati Bengals regular season wins

613 Over 6½ reg season wins -120

9/13/2009 Houston Texans regular season wins

625 Over 8½ reg season wins +120

9/13/2009 Denver Broncos regular season wins

620 Under 7 reg season wins -120

 

[Blackjacks]

What about Minnesota?

HA! They're probably waiting on Favre!

I looked again and Minnesota isn't listed.I guess they probably are waiting on Favre.Looks like everyone likes the under for Denver

 

[footballman_696969]

9/13/2009 Cleveland Browns regular season wins

615 Over 7 reg season wins +165

616 Under 7 reg season wins -185

9/13/2009 Jacksonville Jaguars regular season wins

629 Over 8 reg season wins -120

630 Under 8 reg season wins +100

9/13/2009 New York Giants regular season wins

641 Over 10 reg season wins +130

642 Under 10 reg season wins -150

9/14/2009 Oakland Raiders regular season wins

645 Over 6 reg season wins +115

646 Under 6 reg season wins -135

9/13/2009 Seattle Seahawks regular season wins

655 Over 7½ reg season wins -120

656 Under 7½ reg season wins +100

Cleveland under 7 is by far my favourite.

 

[kremenull]

Lock City.......

Panthers over 8.5

Broncos under 7

 

[FUBAR]

Who do you all like?I like Atlanta under 8.5 (haven't had back to back winning seasons in team history)

I'll take the over thanks.

 

[Penguin]

What about Minnesota?

HA! They're probably waiting on Favre!

I looked again and Minnesota isn't listed.I guess they probably are waiting on Favre.Looks like everyone likes the under for Denver

I see Minnesota o9 -115/u9 -115 at several places

 

[Penguin]

Also, I hammered Washington u8.5 -140 a few days ago. That's a huge half, they have to go 9-7 or better for that to lose and I don't see that happening with their schedule and that division.

 

[Penguin]

9/14/2009 Oakland Raiders regular season wins

645 Over 6 reg season wins +115

646 Under 6 reg season wins -135

A lot of these totals that don't fall on a half a win are going to push. In the Raiders case, they have to go 5-11 or worse to hit on the under. They were playing well at they end of last year and with Denver & KC in the division I'd rather take a shot at 7-9 with positive vig then 5-11 laying -135. Most likely they'll end up 6-10 and wash it out anyway, but gun to my head I'm taking the over.

 

[Blackjacks]

Who do you all like?I like Atlanta under 8.5 (haven't had back to back winning seasons in team history)

I'll take the over thanks.

I like Atl. but when you look at their history (never back to back winning seasons......ever) and a tough schedule I'll take my chances.

 

[TheWick]

SD over 9.5 is my favorite out of that group they might slip up and lose 1 division road game but other than that look out.

 

[Larrywarren]

9/13/2009 Seattle Seahawks regular season wins

655 Over 7½ reg season wins -120

Not much love for Seattle in the betting markets but last year's injuries were horrendous and they've made some very nice moves, probably most under rated team betting wise, also have some money on them at around 60.0 for the SB.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

Also, I hammered Washington u8.5 -140 a few days ago. That's a huge half, they have to go 9-7 or better for that to lose and I don't see that happening with their schedule and that division.

I also liked this one initially, but Washington has one of the easiestout of division schedules in the NFL.STLDETTBKCDENOAKlot of potential wins in that group.I'll pass.

 

[JKL]

I'd go Tampa over 6.5 -105.

The only teams with a lower over/under on wins are Detroit, Saint Louis, Kansas City, and Oakland. Those teams combined for 9 wins last year. Tampa has had 9 wins each of the last two seasons. There are a few older parts who have left, but the lineup is not as old as people may think. The O-line was rebuilt 2-3 years ago, and had an average age of 25.2 last year, and should all be back, a year older, and as good or better.

I think the perception of loss here is much greater than actual loss. I think it just as likely that Gruden had worn on the team and the change to a young "player's coach" from a good coaching system (who will likely run a similar defense so that the drafted personnel still fits) will have a positive impact. I'm not saying they are a Super Bowl contender or anything, but I would start my projection with where they have been recently, slightly above average to average.

 

[cdwood]

9/13/2009 Jacksonville Jaguars regular season wins

629 Over 8 reg season wins -120

630 Under 8 reg season wins +100

For this one to pay off the Jaguars would have to be no better than 7-9. Without even looking at their divisional schedule I can name 6 games they should win Seattle

vs St Louis

vs Kansas City

@ San Francisco

vs Miami

@ Cleveland

That leaves them winning only one of the remaining schedule:

@ Indy

vs Arizona

@ Houston

vs Tennessee

@ Tennessee

@ NY Jets

vs Buffalo

vs Houston

vs Indy

@ New England

The problem with the odds being offered is that for the other side of the bet to pay off, they'd have to go atleast 9-7 which might be tough to do with their divisional schedule the way it is. They may end up going 8-8 which would be a push.

Christopher

 

[Penguin]

Without even looking at their divisional schedule I can name 6 games they should win:

@ Seattle

vs St Louis

vs Kansas City

@ San Francisco

vs Miami

@ Cleveland

I wouldn't count on winning both those games. Seattle & San Fran should be improved and the Jags will be traveling cross country (separate trips) for each of these.

 

[simmonjm]

What do you guys think about Cincy and Over 6½ reg season wins -120

1 Sep 13 DEN @ CIN Paul Brown Stadium 1:00 PM Tickets CBS

2 Sep 20 CIN @ GB Lambeau Field 1:00 PM Tickets CBS

3 Sep 27 PIT @ CIN Paul Brown Stadium 4:15 PM Tickets CBS

4 Oct 04 CIN @ CLE Cleveland Browns Stadium 1:00 PM Tickets CBS

5 Oct 11 CIN @ BAL M&T Bank Stadium 1:00 PM Tickets CBS

6 Oct 18 HOU @ CIN Paul Brown Stadium 1:00 PM Tickets CBS

7 Oct 25 CHI @ CIN Paul Brown Stadium 1:00 PM Tickets FOX

8 Bye

9 Nov 08 BAL @ CIN Paul Brown Stadium 1:00 PM Tickets CBS

10 Nov 15 CIN @ PIT Heinz Field 1:00 PM Tickets CBS

11 Nov 22 CIN @ OAK Oakland Coliseum 4:15 PM Tickets CBS

12 Nov 29 CLE @ CIN Paul Brown Stadium 1:00 PM Tickets CBS

13 Dec 06 DET @ CIN Paul Brown Stadium 1:00 PM Tickets FOX

14 Dec 13 CIN @ MIN Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome 1:00 PM Tickets CBS

15 Dec 20 CIN @ SD Qualcomm Stadium 4:05 PM Tickets CBS

16 Dec 27 KC @ CIN Paul Brown Stadium 1:00 PM Tickets CBS

17 Jan 03 CIN @ NYJ Giants Stadium 1:00 PM Tickets CBS

The bolded games are the games I see them winning. I think they have a good shot of winning against Baltimore or Min.

Last year surprisingly the Bengals defense stepped up and played well. This year additions of Keith Rivers (from injury), Tank Williams, Roy Williams should at least keep the defense playing the same way as last year. On the offensive side of the ball the return of Carson Palmer and a dynamic WR corp of Coles, Ocho, and Henry should make this team explosive. I am picking Cincinnati to make the playoffs or finish 9-7. I really think they will surprise people this year.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Denver under 7 and NE over 11 1/2 are the ones I like the most.

Miami's O/U is shockingly low (7), but given that they seemed to overachieve last year, I could see them falling back to 6-8 wins, so I don't like either side.

 

[Penguin]

What do you guys think about Cincy and Over 6½ reg season wins -120

1 Sep 13 DEN @ CIN Paul Brown Stadium 1:00 PM Tickets CBS

2 Sep 20 CIN @ GB Lambeau Field 1:00 PM Tickets CBS

3 Sep 27 PIT @ CIN Paul Brown Stadium 4:15 PM Tickets CBS

4 Oct 04 CIN @ CLE Cleveland Browns Stadium 1:00 PM Tickets CBS

5 Oct 11 CIN @ BAL M&T Bank Stadium 1:00 PM Tickets CBS

6 Oct 18 HOU @ CIN Paul Brown Stadium 1:00 PM Tickets CBS

7 Oct 25 CHI @ CIN Paul Brown Stadium 1:00 PM Tickets FOX

8 Bye

9 Nov 08 BAL @ CIN Paul Brown Stadium 1:00 PM Tickets CBS

10 Nov 15 CIN @ PIT Heinz Field 1:00 PM Tickets CBS

11 Nov 22 CIN @ OAK Oakland Coliseum 4:15 PM Tickets CBS

12 Nov 29 CLE @ CIN Paul Brown Stadium 1:00 PM Tickets CBS

13 Dec 06 DET @ CIN Paul Brown Stadium 1:00 PM Tickets FOX

14 Dec 13 CIN @ MIN Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome 1:00 PM Tickets CBS

15 Dec 20 CIN @ SD Qualcomm Stadium 4:05 PM Tickets CBS

16 Dec 27 KC @ CIN Paul Brown Stadium 1:00 PM Tickets CBS

17 Jan 03 CIN @ NYJ Giants Stadium 1:00 PM Tickets CBS

The bolded games are the games I see them winning. I think they have a good shot of winning against Baltimore or Min.

Last year surprisingly the Bengals defense stepped up and played well. This year additions of Keith Rivers (from injury), Tank Williams, Roy Williams should at least keep the defense playing the same way as last year. On the offensive side of the ball the return of Carson Palmer and a dynamic WR corp of Coles, Ocho, and Henry should make this team explosive. I am picking Cincinnati to make the playoffs or finish 9-7. I really think they will surprise people this year.

I could see it happening, they were 7-9 or better every season since 2003 except for last year. One thing I see is that you have them winning five of their last seven (after a 2-7 start) and winning on the road against the Jets & Raiders.

 

[DawgPoundNJ]

Not to be a but Cleveland is a classic sucker bet and you all are falling for it.

Here are some blurbs for +6.5 wins for the Browns:

-Mangini cranked out 10 wins with the Jets in his first season.

-Mangini relied heavily on Thomas Jones' success and relied heavily on the O Line, Jones and Washington. Jamal Lewis is slightly younger than Jones, and Harrison has shown some flashes that he can step into the Leon Washington role.

-Mangini's offense didn't really feature a receiving tight end so the loss of Winslow is overthought.

-The schedule goes from top 3 toughest to #8 easiest.

-QBs are healthy this season; a main reason why they didn't score an offensive TD the last 6 games last year.

-Drafting Alex Mack at center helps neutralize Casey Hampton and Haloti Ngata.

-Don't underestimate Rob Ryan as D coordinator. Mixing up schemes will create turnovers; a run first offense will boost time of possession and keep opposing offenses off the field. A big problem in the past was a worn down defense due to time of possession.

-Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Cincy didn't noticably improve themselves although each drafted solidly.

 

[TLEF316]

i know its a homer pick and they are likely relying on a rookie QB, but i'd be very surprised if the Jets dont at least push on 7 wins. Too much talent on that defense, plus a stellar running game.

 

[Sweet Love]

Not to be a but Cleveland is a classic sucker bet and you all are falling for it.Here are some blurbs for +6.5 wins for the Browns:-Mangini cranked out 10 wins with the Jets in his first season. -Mangini relied heavily on Thomas Jones' success and relied heavily on the O Line, Jones and Washington. Jamal Lewis is slightly younger than Jones, and Harrison has shown some flashes that he can step into the Leon Washington role. -Mangini's offense didn't really feature a receiving tight end so the loss of Winslow is overthought.-The schedule goes from top 3 toughest to #8 easiest. -QBs are healthy this season; a main reason why they didn't score an offensive TD the last 6 games last year.-Drafting Alex Mack at center helps neutralize Casey Hampton and Haloti Ngata. -Don't underestimate Rob Ryan as D coordinator. Mixing up schemes will create turnovers; a run first offense will boost time of possession and keep opposing offenses off the field. A big problem in the past was a worn down defense due to time of possession.-Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Cincy didn't noticably improve themselves although each drafted solidly.

I came her to post just this and you did a much better job than I would have ever done selling it. Mangini jump started the Jets like no one else could have (and I mean that). He has a Parcells/Belicheck entrance, but he just can't finish (i.e he does not know how to pull back the reigns). This is something that works for a year or so, but Belicheck (and it kills me to say this) is a master of kicking players' butts and loving them at the same time. mangini just has mastered one part of the equation, but if you are betting against him in Year 1 regardless of where he is, you are taking a very big chance. I don't like him as a head coach, but it would not surprise me if in 5 years he finds himself in a new role in the NFL as a "training camp coach" (like a consultant) for years to come. It is an ever evolving league and I can see him shining in such a role. Not to mention that while Cleveland may not have been as good as they were in 2007, they certainly were not as bad as last year.

 

[Blackjacks]

Not to be a but Cleveland is a classic sucker bet and you all are falling for it.Here are some blurbs for +6.5 wins for the Browns:-Mangini cranked out 10 wins with the Jets in his first season. -Mangini relied heavily on Thomas Jones' success and relied heavily on the O Line, Jones and Washington. Jamal Lewis is slightly younger than Jones, and Harrison has shown some flashes that he can step into the Leon Washington role. -Mangini's offense didn't really feature a receiving tight end so the loss of Winslow is overthought.-The schedule goes from top 3 toughest to #8 easiest. -QBs are healthy this season; a main reason why they didn't score an offensive TD the last 6 games last year.-Drafting Alex Mack at center helps neutralize Casey Hampton and Haloti Ngata. -Don't underestimate Rob Ryan as D coordinator. Mixing up schemes will create turnovers; a run first offense will boost time of possession and keep opposing offenses off the field. A big problem in the past was a worn down defense due to time of possession.-Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Cincy didn't noticably improve themselves although each drafted solidly.

I came her to post just this and you did a much better job than I would have ever done selling it. Mangini jump started the Jets like no one else could have (and I mean that). He has a Parcells/Belicheck entrance, but he just can't finish (i.e he does not know how to pull back the reigns). This is something that works for a year or so, but Belicheck (and it kills me to say this) is a master of kicking players' butts and loving them at the same time. mangini just has mastered one part of the equation, but if you are betting against him in Year 1 regardless of where he is, you are taking a very big chance. I don't like him as a head coach, but it would not surprise me if in 5 years he finds himself in a new role in the NFL as a "training camp coach" (like a consultant) for years to come. It is an ever evolving league and I can see him shining in such a role. Not to mention that while Cleveland may not have been as good as they were in 2007, they certainly were not as bad as last year.

1 Sun, Sep 13 Minnesota 1:00 PM L2 Sun, Sep 20 @ Denver 4:15 PM maybe a W3 Sun, Sep 27 @ Baltimore 1:00 PM L4 Sun, Oct 4 Cincinnati 1:00 PM should be a W5 Sun, Oct 11 @ Buffalo 1:00 PM L6 Sun, Oct 18 @ Pittsburgh 1:00 PM L7 Sun, Oct 25 Green Bay 1:00 PM L8 Sun, Nov 1 @ Chicago 1:00 PM L9 BYE WEEK 10 Mon, Nov 16 Baltimore 8:30 PM L11 Sun, Nov 22 @ Detroit 1:00 PM maybe a W12 Sun, Nov 29 @ Cincinnati 1:00 PM maybe a W13 Sun, Dec 6 San Diego 4:05 PM L14 Thu, Dec 10 Pittsburgh 8:20 PM L15 Sun, Dec 20 @ Kansas City 1:00 PM maybe a W16 Sun, Dec 27 Oakland 1:00 PM should be a W17 Sun, Jan 3 Jacksonville 1:00 PM perhaps a WI have 7 potential wins for the Browns4 maybe's1 perhaps2 should be winsI wouldn't be real comfortable

 

[runner06]

9/13/2009 Jacksonville Jaguars regular season wins

629 Over 8 reg season wins -120

630 Under 8 reg season wins +100

For this one to pay off the Jaguars would have to be no better than 7-9. Without even looking at their divisional schedule I can name 6 games they should win Seattle

vs St Louis

vs Kansas City

@ San Francisco

vs Miami

@ Cleveland

That leaves them winning only one of the remaining schedule:

@ Indy

vs Arizona

@ Houston

vs Tennessee

@ Tennessee

@ NY Jets

vs Buffalo

vs Houston

vs Indy

@ New England

The problem with the odds being offered is that for the other side of the bet to pay off, they'd have to go atleast 9-7 which might be tough to do with their divisional schedule the way it is. They may end up going 8-8 which would be a push.

Christopher

Jacksonville is a weird team. They could easily go 9-7 or better and lose two or three games from that first list. They've done that a couple of times it seems since Del Rio has arrived. They could also stink it up all year.

 

[DawgPoundNJ]

Not to be a but Cleveland is a classic sucker bet and you all are falling for it.Here are some blurbs for +6.5 wins for the Browns:-Mangini cranked out 10 wins with the Jets in his first season. -Mangini relied heavily on Thomas Jones' success and relied heavily on the O Line, Jones and Washington. Jamal Lewis is slightly younger than Jones, and Harrison has shown some flashes that he can step into the Leon Washington role. -Mangini's offense didn't really feature a receiving tight end so the loss of Winslow is overthought.-The schedule goes from top 3 toughest to #8 easiest. -QBs are healthy this season; a main reason why they didn't score an offensive TD the last 6 games last year.-Drafting Alex Mack at center helps neutralize Casey Hampton and Haloti Ngata. -Don't underestimate Rob Ryan as D coordinator. Mixing up schemes will create turnovers; a run first offense will boost time of possession and keep opposing offenses off the field. A big problem in the past was a worn down defense due to time of possession.-Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Cincy didn't noticably improve themselves although each drafted solidly.

I came her to post just this and you did a much better job than I would have ever done selling it. Mangini jump started the Jets like no one else could have (and I mean that). He has a Parcells/Belicheck entrance, but he just can't finish (i.e he does not know how to pull back the reigns). This is something that works for a year or so, but Belicheck (and it kills me to say this) is a master of kicking players' butts and loving them at the same time. mangini just has mastered one part of the equation, but if you are betting against him in Year 1 regardless of where he is, you are taking a very big chance. I don't like him as a head coach, but it would not surprise me if in 5 years he finds himself in a new role in the NFL as a "training camp coach" (like a consultant) for years to come. It is an ever evolving league and I can see him shining in such a role. Not to mention that while Cleveland may not have been as good as they were in 2007, they certainly were not as bad as last year.

1 Sun, Sep 13 Minnesota 1:00 PM L2 Sun, Sep 20 @ Denver 4:15 PM maybe a W3 Sun, Sep 27 @ Baltimore 1:00 PM L4 Sun, Oct 4 Cincinnati 1:00 PM should be a W5 Sun, Oct 11 @ Buffalo 1:00 PM L6 Sun, Oct 18 @ Pittsburgh 1:00 PM L7 Sun, Oct 25 Green Bay 1:00 PM L8 Sun, Nov 1 @ Chicago 1:00 PM L9 BYE WEEK 10 Mon, Nov 16 Baltimore 8:30 PM L11 Sun, Nov 22 @ Detroit 1:00 PM maybe a W12 Sun, Nov 29 @ Cincinnati 1:00 PM maybe a W13 Sun, Dec 6 San Diego 4:05 PM L14 Thu, Dec 10 Pittsburgh 8:20 PM L15 Sun, Dec 20 @ Kansas City 1:00 PM maybe a W16 Sun, Dec 27 Oakland 1:00 PM should be a W17 Sun, Jan 3 Jacksonville 1:00 PM perhaps a WI have 7 potential wins for the Browns4 maybe's1 perhaps2 should be winsI wouldn't be real comfortable

Too quick to discount the home opener, @ Buffalo, and the Monday night game at home against Baltimore (look at what happened to the undefeated Giants last year)

 

[Blackjacks]

Not to be a but Cleveland is a classic sucker bet and you all are falling for it.Here are some blurbs for +6.5 wins for the Browns:-Mangini cranked out 10 wins with the Jets in his first season. -Mangini relied heavily on Thomas Jones' success and relied heavily on the O Line, Jones and Washington. Jamal Lewis is slightly younger than Jones, and Harrison has shown some flashes that he can step into the Leon Washington role. -Mangini's offense didn't really feature a receiving tight end so the loss of Winslow is overthought.-The schedule goes from top 3 toughest to #8 easiest. -QBs are healthy this season; a main reason why they didn't score an offensive TD the last 6 games last year.-Drafting Alex Mack at center helps neutralize Casey Hampton and Haloti Ngata. -Don't underestimate Rob Ryan as D coordinator. Mixing up schemes will create turnovers; a run first offense will boost time of possession and keep opposing offenses off the field. A big problem in the past was a worn down defense due to time of possession.-Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Cincy didn't noticably improve themselves although each drafted solidly.

I came her to post just this and you did a much better job than I would have ever done selling it. Mangini jump started the Jets like no one else could have (and I mean that). He has a Parcells/Belicheck entrance, but he just can't finish (i.e he does not know how to pull back the reigns). This is something that works for a year or so, but Belicheck (and it kills me to say this) is a master of kicking players' butts and loving them at the same time. mangini just has mastered one part of the equation, but if you are betting against him in Year 1 regardless of where he is, you are taking a very big chance. I don't like him as a head coach, but it would not surprise me if in 5 years he finds himself in a new role in the NFL as a "training camp coach" (like a consultant) for years to come. It is an ever evolving league and I can see him shining in such a role. Not to mention that while Cleveland may not have been as good as they were in 2007, they certainly were not as bad as last year.

1 Sun, Sep 13 Minnesota 1:00 PM L2 Sun, Sep 20 @ Denver 4:15 PM maybe a W3 Sun, Sep 27 @ Baltimore 1:00 PM L4 Sun, Oct 4 Cincinnati 1:00 PM should be a W5 Sun, Oct 11 @ Buffalo 1:00 PM L6 Sun, Oct 18 @ Pittsburgh 1:00 PM L7 Sun, Oct 25 Green Bay 1:00 PM L8 Sun, Nov 1 @ Chicago 1:00 PM L9 BYE WEEK 10 Mon, Nov 16 Baltimore 8:30 PM L11 Sun, Nov 22 @ Detroit 1:00 PM maybe a W12 Sun, Nov 29 @ Cincinnati 1:00 PM maybe a W13 Sun, Dec 6 San Diego 4:05 PM L14 Thu, Dec 10 Pittsburgh 8:20 PM L15 Sun, Dec 20 @ Kansas City 1:00 PM maybe a W16 Sun, Dec 27 Oakland 1:00 PM should be a W17 Sun, Jan 3 Jacksonville 1:00 PM perhaps a WI have 7 potential wins for the Browns4 maybe's1 perhaps2 should be winsI wouldn't be real comfortable

Too quick to discount the home opener, @ Buffalo, and the Monday night game at home against Baltimore (look at what happened to the undefeated Giants last year)

I agree. I never say never but I would be surprised if they beat the Vikings opening day (I think Cle. would have a better chance if Favre was playing), I really like Buffalo this year and I think they will beat Cle. easily and Balt is just alot more physical than the Browns'.But I'm not saying anyone is wrong for their thoughts, just adding mine.

 

[DawgPoundNJ]

Allow me to put my homer hat back on...

I don't think the Steelers will hit 10.5 wins this year. The offensive line hasn't been upgraded unless you count Kraig Urbik coming right in and playing well, and with Ben taking hits the way he does he's a big time injury risk as he gets older. Chuck Batch is the only proven entity after Ben, and he's coming off a major injury.

 

[fatkid]

Buffalo Bills regular season wins 608 Under 8 reg season wins -135

My favorite of these is the under on the Bills. They will loose Lynch for a couple of games, their offensive line is terrible, TO is a shadow of his former self who is about to destroy Trent Edwards confidence, if Edwards gets hurt, they only have Ryan Fitzpatrick behind him, and **** Jauron is a terrible coach.

 

[Marvelous]

9/13/2009 Detroit Lions regular season wins

621 Over 4½ reg season wins -115

622 Under 4½ reg season wins -105

I am surprised no one mentioned this. Take the over for Detroit. It is really hard to lose 12 games in a season. They got a new coach and GM. They should get better by default.

 

[MAC_32]

If Hasselbeck's back is healthy Seattle wins more than 7.5, I'd take that bet now.

I loath writing this, take Pittsburgh over 10.5 to the bank.

Oakland under 6 wins for sure, JaMarcus is going to start week 1 and it should be rather ugly until they replace him. I think they'll be adequate once Garthia is given the job but by then it may be too late.

New England won 11 games in 2008 without Tom Brady, his presence alone adds one game minimum.

Miami over 7, I know their schedule's a #####, but this team's good enough to at least push.

Green Bay under 8 1/2, do not think the transition to the 3-4 will go well at all. The division around them is improving, they're not.

Chicago over 8 1/2, they were a .500 team then they upgraded QB. Good bet here.

Dallas over 9, I think you can bank on a push at minimum. They've been good in the regular season, their problems surface December and beyond. I think the new gameplan gets them to 10 wins, we'll see if it works in the playoffs.

I think St Louis over 5.5 is a good bet, I doubt they'll finish > .500 but I'd expect 6 or 7 wins. I think Spags effect improves the defense and they have finally committed themselves to their strength on offense, the running game. I'd wait until camp though before making the bet, I don't want to see bad reports re Spags in camp.

I really want to say Washington because given the lack of faith they've put in Campbell, how much love they've given Brennan, and how awful I think Brennan will be they could be in for an awful season. However, they have St Louis, Detroit, and Tampa weeks two through four so Campbell may stick around long enough for them to flirt too much with 8.5 wins.

Hmm, a lot of over bets from me, may need to trim a couple of those off.

 

[Liquid Tension]

"NYG under 10 (I just don't see how they are going to score points this year)"

The only way the Giants don't win 10 games is if they have injuries because their defense is as good as anyone's and they have a bruising RB (with depth), a solid OL, a receiving team that has a lot of pretty good players (new pass catching TE), and an above average QB.

You are underestimating them, they are better than last year even without Plax. Osi by himself is worth more than Plax and the G-men added a ton of DL depth, Boley (if he comes back from injury) and removing Toomer from the lineup will help the passing game as he was covered by safeties last year.

I am a Giant fan, but would be the first to tell you when they have issues...they don't unless they get hit with the injury bug.

 

[Liquid Tension]

Denver under 7 and NE over 11 1/2 are the ones I like the most. Miami's O/U is shockingly low (7), but given that they seemed to overachieve last year, I could see them falling back to 6-8 wins, so I don't like either side.

My 2nd favorite team is the Dolphins and I agree with the above. I expected a win total of 8.5 and I was looking to play the under, but 7 is tough. IF I had to bet I would take the over only because I think the chances of being under 7 are much less than being over 8. 6-10 would be a bad year for this team. 8 wins to me seems like the number of wins I would choose if I had to choose a number.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Allow me to put my homer hat back on...I don't think the Steelers will hit 10.5 wins this year. The offensive line hasn't been upgraded unless you count Kraig Urbik coming right in and playing well, and with Ben taking hits the way he does he's a big time injury risk as he gets older. Chuck Batch is the only proven entity after Ben, and he's coming off a major injury.

Unless the Steelers play the first half of the season with their eyes closed like they did coming off the title in '06, I don't see any way they don't hit 11 wins (barring a Roethlisberger injury). Look at their schedule compared with a year ago - they replaced New England, Indianapolis, Houston, Jacksonville, Giants, Dallas, Philly, and Washington (combined win pct last year .583) with Miami, Denver, Oakland, KC, Minnesota, Chicago, Green Bay, and Detroit (combined win pct .398)They won 12 last year with the toughest schedule in league history, there's no way they shouldn't hit 12+ this year unless something catastrophic happens. There's a decent chance that only 3 teams on this year's schedule make the playoffs.

 

[Blackjacks]

Minnesota is now listed at 9 over (-120)

 

[Penguin]

Denver under 7 and NE over 11 1/2 are the ones I like the most. Miami's O/U is shockingly low (7), but given that they seemed to overachieve last year, I could see them falling back to 6-8 wins, so I don't like either side.

My 2nd favorite team is the Dolphins and I agree with the above. I expected a win total of 8.5 and I was looking to play the under, but 7 is tough. IF I had to bet I would take the over only because I think the chances of being under 7 are much less than being over 8. 6-10 would be a bad year for this team. 8 wins to me seems like the number of wins I would choose if I had to choose a number.

Miami has a brutal schedule, but under 7 means they'd have to go 6-10 or worse to win that bet. They were 11-5 last year, sure they had a cake schedule and Brady went down possibly giving them an additional win, but I'm not gonna go out on a limb and gamble that they'll win five less games in '09 than they did in '08. Bill Parcel's teams usually get better. If anything, I'd be tempted to go over, but that schedule scares the heck out of me.I will say that this led me to take a closer look at Buffalo though, as they basically have the same schedule as Miami. Now, Buffalo's O/U is 8 wins -110 at most of my shops. That extra win is big, they'd have to go 9-7 or better for the under to lose. I'd much rather bet on Buffalo under 8 than Miami under 7, and the vig is almost identical. It's not like we're talking Buffalo U8 -160 versus Miami U7 even. Just my .02, I played Buffalo U8 -110

 

[tombonneau]

I'd go Tampa over 6.5 -105. The only teams with a lower over/under on wins are Detroit, Saint Louis, Kansas City, and Oakland. Those teams combined for 9 wins last year. Tampa has had 9 wins each of the last two seasons. There are a few older parts who have left, but the lineup is not as old as people may think. The O-line was rebuilt 2-3 years ago, and had an average age of 25.2 last year, and should all be back, a year older, and as good or better.I think the perception of loss here is much greater than actual loss. I think it just as likely that Gruden had worn on the team and the change to a young "player's coach" from a good coaching system (who will likely run a similar defense so that the drafted personnel still fits) will have a positive impact. I'm not saying they are a Super Bowl contender or anything, but I would start my projection with where they have been recently, slightly above average to average.

When you're betting on a team's over win total, it's alwayas nice to know who their starting quarterback is. Just sayin'.

 

[Penguin]

I'd go Tampa over 6.5 -105. The only teams with a lower over/under on wins are Detroit, Saint Louis, Kansas City, and Oakland. Those teams combined for 9 wins last year. Tampa has had 9 wins each of the last two seasons. There are a few older parts who have left, but the lineup is not as old as people may think. The O-line was rebuilt 2-3 years ago, and had an average age of 25.2 last year, and should all be back, a year older, and as good or better.I think the perception of loss here is much greater than actual loss. I think it just as likely that Gruden had worn on the team and the change to a young "player's coach" from a good coaching system (who will likely run a similar defense so that the drafted personnel still fits) will have a positive impact. I'm not saying they are a Super Bowl contender or anything, but I would start my projection with where they have been recently, slightly above average to average.

When you're betting on a team's over win total, it's alwayas nice to know who their starting quarterback is. Just sayin'.

I took Tampa Bay under the 6.5 for the record, nothing huge, but a very nice sized position against them. Once again the brutal schedule played into my decision, as well as the loss of half their defense and Jeff Garcia. I have little faith in McCown, Leftwich, Freeman & Co. and Derrick Ward doesn't exactly excite me. I wouldn't be shocked if he ended up being a change of pace back while Earnest Graham moved the chains. I love KW2 but can he stay healthy? If so, can he hit the ground running with a new QB (who even knows who it's gonna be at this point? We could see a mid season switch and that can't bode well for Winslow's #'s.) Will Antonio Bryant stay out of trouble and build on his 2008 season? What about the defense? Is this the year that Gaines Adams makes good on his potential? Will Sabby Piscitelli step up? Ruud's a stud but who's going to help him at LB? Geno Hayes? Angelo Crowell? Ronde's legs gotta feel a little heavier than last year. Now, back to the schedule...On the road at...BuffaloWashingtonPhiladelphiaMiamiAtlantaCarolinaSeattleNew OrleansAt home versus...New York GiantsDallasCarolinaNew EnglandGreen bayNew OrleansNew York jetsAtlantaNow, if you see 7 wins there be my guest and hammer the over. I'll be the guy at the window around 4 pm EST on January 3rd hopefully waiting to cash my Bucs U6.5 ticket as they drop their last home game to Atlanta.

 

[Penguin]

I just want to say to everyone in here that myself (and I think most others posting opinions) are here to help each other. We are giving opinions to try and either strengthen or weaken a position based on statistical facts, player/coaching movements, scheme changes, post draft/pre camp rumblings etc.

I think we are all looking out for one another here, and hopefully the thread stays on track and remains that way.

 

[Pictus Cat]

9/13/2009 Detroit Lions regular season wins 621 Over 4½ reg season wins -115 622 Under 4½ reg season wins -105 I am surprised no one mentioned this. Take the over for Detroit. It is really hard to lose 12 games in a season. They got a new coach and GM. They should get better by default.

I agree. I hope they won't be pantsing the Bears, because I think they will pants 5 teams.

 

[Penguin]

A few others I have hit this week...

Indy O10 +130 (I'm not a big fan this year with all of the coaching changes but 10-6 is a push and I have nice positive vig here. 11-7 and I win 1.3 on my money, 9-7 or worse to lose, and only even money at that.

Tampa Bay U6.5 even (see previous post.)

Dallas U9 +135 (Not a big fan of the Cowboys, brutal division, could easily drop several out of division games, I liked them much better last year and they finished 8-8 with an easier schedule (in my opinion.) Phily got better with the addition of Andrews & Peters on the OL, McCoy & Maclin on offense, S.Jones & E.Hobbs in the secondary. The G-Men added depth on the defensive side of the ball. No Plkax is a concern but I think the mash unit of Hicks, Smith, Hixon and company get it down with the help of B.Jacobs, A.Bradshaw, A.Brown & D.Ware. Travis Beckum helping out K.Boss at TE. Not to mention, word on the street is that the Skins are not going to be a push over. (I have some doubts about them, but they could easily end up 8-8, if not better.)

San Diego O9.5 -125 (Not a big fan of their schedule, it seems that several games could easily go either way, but I'm counting on KC, Denver & Oakland making the AFC West the worst division in football. Now I do have some love for the Raiders besides their God awful management/ownership. The team played much better down the stretch going 3-3 and knocking off playoff hopefuls Houston & Tampa Bay in weeks 16-17. I think the only thing keeping San Diego for a 10+ win season is another injury riddled season wit some bad Ed Hochuli voodoo.

Denver U7.5 -140. love the bet and the extra half win so there's no possibility of a push here. Vig is a little high but it's worth it in my opinion for that extra half win. I think Denver could be headed for a disastrous season if McDaniels can't hold the team together.

Buffalo U8 (See earlier post)

Washington U8.5 (See earlier post)

 

[Bills_Fan11]

Denver under 7 and NE over 11 1/2 are the ones I like the most. Miami's O/U is shockingly low (7), but given that they seemed to overachieve last year, I could see them falling back to 6-8 wins, so I don't like either side.

My 2nd favorite team is the Dolphins and I agree with the above. I expected a win total of 8.5 and I was looking to play the under, but 7 is tough. IF I had to bet I would take the over only because I think the chances of being under 7 are much less than being over 8. 6-10 would be a bad year for this team. 8 wins to me seems like the number of wins I would choose if I had to choose a number.

Miami has a brutal schedule, but under 7 means they'd have to go 6-10 or worse to win that bet. They were 11-5 last year, sure they had a cake schedule and Brady went down possibly giving them an additional win, but I'm not gonna go out on a limb and gamble that they'll win five less games in '09 than they did in '08. Bill Parcel's teams usually get better. If anything, I'd be tempted to go over, but that schedule scares the heck out of me.I will say that this led me to take a closer look at Buffalo though, as they basically have the same schedule as Miami. Now, Buffalo's O/U is 8 wins -110 at most of my shops. That extra win is big, they'd have to go 9-7 or better for the under to lose. I'd much rather bet on Buffalo under 8 than Miami under 7, and the vig is almost identical. It's not like we're talking Buffalo U8 -160 versus Miami U7 even. Just my .02, I played Buffalo U8 -110

Parcells teams get better over time, but that doesn't mean much for this year. The 94 Pats came out of nowhere and tanked in 95 before the SB in 96. The Cowboys in his 1st year somehow made the playoffs with a Quincy Carter & Troy Hambrick backfield but naturally took a step back in the 2nd year.