NFL 2010 Draft -- What do you think about Dan LeFevour? (1 Viewer)

[Weapon of Mass Instruction]

Guy is under the radar of the general public but certainly not NFL scouts. From all reports he is a passing quarterback...that can run, the opposite of Tebow. No, he hasn't played in the SEC but he is D1. Also, go to espn.com and look at his game log. Frankly, many of his better passing games were when they did play the big boys, including Purdue multiple times, Kentrucky, Mich St this year, etc.

I'll give LeFevour stats first, then Tebow:

Total pass yards: 11,016 / 7,422

TDs 91/75

INT 33/13 but LeFevour has 1,507 attempts vs 791 for Tebow

Total rush yards: 2,629 vs 2415

TDs 41 / 38

avg 4.5 / 4.3

attempts 578/574

LeFevour is 22, 6'3 and 238. Same for Tebow but he is 245.

LeFevour plays in the MAC, just like Big Ben did. He already has more yards passing that Ben did in career (both were 4 year starters). In first 2 years as starters, LeFevour had 6,683 passing yards, 53 passing touchdowns. In Roethlisberger's first two seasons as a starter, he compiled 6,343 passing yards, and 47 touchdowns.

Here are a few links:

Gil Brandt

Rivals article from 2 years ago.

Some random article

Anyway, I'm just wondering what others think, especially those that have seen him play a lot.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I'm not sure why you left out yards per attempt, which is probably the most important metric for projecting a college QB, assuming you want to look at stats.

Tebow's at around 9.4 for his career; LeFevour was at 6.73 his sophomore year, 7.40 his junior year and is at 7.75 right now.

I don't think you can use college stats to get very far when it comes to projecting QBs, although there's certainly a minimum level of effectiveness you need to reach (which both Tebow and LeFevour have obviously reached). But if you're going to look at a QB's stats, let's at least throw the most important ones into the discussion.

 

[MAC_32]

I'm not sure why you left out yards per attempt, which is probably the most important metric for projecting a college QB, assuming you want to look at stats.

Tebow's at around 9.4 for his career; LeFevour was at 6.73 his sophomore year, 7.40 his junior year and is at 7.75 right now.

I don't think you can use college stats to get very far when it comes to projecting QBs, although there's certainly a minimum level of effectiveness you need to reach (which both Tebow and LeFevour have obviously reached). But if you're going to look at a QB's stats, let's at least throw the most important ones into the discussion.

That said I'm more intrigued by guys like LeFevour, Max Hall, Jake Locker, and Pat Devlin than Bradford, Clausen, McCoy, Snead, and Tebow so what do I know.

 

[Chaos Commish]

I prefer Locker to any of them.

I don't agree the yards per reception stat is very telling at all. Pretty sure Vince Young led the nation or at least had the highest number of the first round QBs in 06. Chase? Have you dug around this stat to support your comment? Just curious.

I think stats need to be weighed about a quarter as much as watching them play and seeking skills, plays, throws, reads, etc., that translate to the higher level. That's why I like Locker anyway.

 

[PR Sparty]

I can't imagine many people here have seen LeFevour play as CMU doesn't get much national pub, but I was at Spartan Stadium last month when he torched my Spartans. He's good and I think he's NFL ready. Doesn't beat himself and doesn't seem to get rattled. As Chase said, his spread offense is a lot of 5-10 yard slants and bubble screens but he can also let it go deep. He didn't really use his legs in that game, but he can move if need be.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Dudes got all the tools. Hopefully a good NFL team will let him sit and learn before throwning him to the wolves

 

[Modog814]

I'll give LeFevour stats first, then Tebow:

Total pass yards: 11,016 / 7,422

TDs 91/75

INT 33/13 but LeFevour has 1,507 attempts vs 791 for Tebow

Doesn't this make Tebow's stats much more impressive when compared to LeFevour? Only 3500 fewer yards and 16 fewer touchdowns in 600 fewer attempts.

 

[Wu-banger]

Due to playing fantasty College Football The Fever has been on my radar since for awhile now.

His stats were love at first sight but he has the complete skill set to make it in the NFL.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

I prefer Locker to any of them. I don't agree the yards per reception stat is very telling at all. Pretty sure Vince Young led the nation or at least had the highest number of the first round QBs in 06. Chase? Have you dug around this stat to support your comment? Just curious. I think stats need to be weighed about a quarter as much as watching them play and seeking skills, plays, throws, reads, etc., that translate to the higher level. That's why I like Locker anyway.

I agree completely. I think that Chase is a little over infatuated with the stat. I think it overly favors QB's with a strong run threat that can capitalize on play action throws down the field. It takes away from QB's that asked to regularly use the short passing game instead of a running game. Also, I think that in addition in to scheme, in college- the discrepancies in talent from one team to another make it hard make assessments based on stats.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

I like him a lot. This is a huge year for QBs.. this is the year a team needing a QB to get over the hump could steal someone in the mid-first that has top pick talent, much like the Steelers lucked out grabbing Roethlisberger in '04. A team like Tampa that took Freeman last year will likely wish they'd waited - there are no fewer than 6 QBs that could carry a first-round grade in April, IMHO.

 

[MAC_32]

I can't imagine many people here have seen LeFevour play as CMU doesn't get much national pub, but I was at Spartan Stadium last month when he torched my Spartans. He's good and I think he's NFL ready. Doesn't beat himself and doesn't seem to get rattled. As Chase said, his spread offense is a lot of 5-10 yard slants and bubble screens but he can also let it go deep. He didn't really use his legs in that game, but he can move if need be.

Good head on his shoulders, for sure. Read an interview with him last season sometime, he knows he can take it down and run, but that it won't work at the next level...something like that anyway. He'll extend the play with his legs, but only runs as a last resort.

 

[Weapon of Mass Instruction]

Well, I'm intrigued, obviously, because the Titans need a QB. They also do not currently have a 2nd round pick.

I am expecting them to cut VY and, depending on if they can sign a Bulger type vet, cut Collins, too. Getting a rookie would give him a year or two to sit and watch.

Where, at this time, would he go? 2nd or 3rd round? Higher? I assume he'd still go after Bradford, McCoy, Pike, Locker, Tebow(?) and Mallett if he comes out.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Well, I'm intrigued, obviously, because the Titans need a QB. They also do not currently have a 2nd round pick.I am expecting them to cut VY and, depending on if they can sign a Bulger type vet, cut Collins, too. Getting a rookie would give him a year or two to sit and watch.Where, at this time, would he go? 2nd or 3rd round? Higher? I assume he'd still go after Bradford, McCoy, Pike, Locker, Tebow(?) and Mallett if he comes out.

Way too early to say. LeFevour isn't a sleeper, and he'll carry a first round grade by some. I suspect he'll be a top-10 pick on some boards.

 

[wombat104]

CMU grad here, seen LeFevour since he was a freshman. He was matured, in the beginning he looked to run much more and now as someone said he uses his legs to extend plays. I think he has all the potential to go in the first round, but that will depend on his performance in the senior bowl and the combine.

 

[Don Quixote]

Just to mention another MAC QB, I like LeFevour, but I also like Tim Hiller almost just as much. Hiller comes from more of a pro-style offense, and I think has a stronger arm. Hiller's numbers are a bit down this year, but he lost 3 top receivers from a year ago and also had off-season ACL surgery.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Just to mention another MAC QB, I like LeFevour, but I also like Tim Hiller almost just as much. Hiller comes from more of a pro-style offense, and I think has a stronger arm. Hiller's numbers are a bit down this year, but he lost 3 top receivers from a year ago and also had off-season ACL surgery.

Hiller and LeFevour are both possible first-rounders, along with Bradford, McCoy, Clausen, Pike, and possibly Tebow (if the underclassmen come out.) This draft class could rival the '83 class in terms of QBs taken in the first round.

 

[MAC_32]

Just to mention another MAC QB, I like LeFevour, but I also like Tim Hiller almost just as much. Hiller comes from more of a pro-style offense, and I think has a stronger arm. Hiller's numbers are a bit down this year, but he lost 3 top receivers from a year ago and also had off-season ACL surgery.

Hiller looked like a deer in headlights against a less than intimidating Michigan front 7 in the opener.

 

[sterjs]

But if you're going to look at a QB's stats, let's at least throw the most important ones into the discussion.

Do you have evidence that Y/A is the best stat to project college qbs?The Football Outsiders guys claim that Games Started and Completion% are the two best stats for projecting college CBs(along with draft position).

 

[Cecil Lammey]

I've been on the LeFevour bandwagon since his sophomore season. Love his size, scrambling ability, and football intelligence. He throws well on the run, and is looking downfield under pressure - he's not an auto-scrambler. Decision making has improved from last year.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

I'm not sure why you left out yards per attempt, which is probably the most important metric for projecting a college QB, assuming you want to look at stats.

So Josh Nesbitt is an elite prospect then with his 11.2 yards per attempt.

 

[Chase Stuart]

But if you're going to look at a QB's stats, let's at least throw the most important ones into the discussion.

Do you have evidence that Y/A is the best stat to project college qbs?The Football Outsiders guys claim that Games Started and Completion% are the two best stats for projecting college CBs(along with draft position).

Well,1) Y/A is the best stat to project the success level young NFL QBs. NY/A would probably be slightly better, as that includes sack rates, but college football doesn't even count sack yardage in passing stats, so it's a moot point. But what alternatives do we have? INT percentage is almost entirely random and useless as a predictor. TD percentage is a little bit better, but it's certainly not as good a predictor as yards per attempt. Raw passing yards isn't very good -- passing yards are too highly correlated with pass attempts to want to use passing yards over pass yards per attempt. Completion percentage isn't very useful, as it's way too system dependent. QB rating incorporates of all these things but in a terrible way. So for lack of other options, Y/A is pretty clearly the best stat to project future performances. I'm not even sure what would be second.2) I like the FO guys, and David Lewin seems like a good guy, but the Lewin Career Forceast system is bunk; it's an example of data mining rather than data analysis. It's useless to the extent that you would want to put undue weight on completion percentage or games started. Both of those things are good -- there's certainly a correlation between games started and ability at any level, just like a high completion percentage is good; but they're not nearly as correlated with talent as yards per attempt.Draft position, of course, trumps all. That should go without saying, as an efficient market incorporates all of these things. So post-draft, draft position is the only thing that matters. Pre-draft, I'd look at Y/A.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I'm not sure why you left out yards per attempt, which is probably the most important metric for projecting a college QB, assuming you want to look at stats.

So Josh Nesbitt is an elite prospect then with his 11.2 yards per attempt.

Minimum: 2 completions per game.

 

[Weapon of Mass Instruction]

My original post was not to say that he is better than Tebow...or anyone else for that matter. Just to point out statistically that he is quite intriguing.

Just to mention another MAC QB, I like LeFevour, but I also like Tim Hiller almost just as much. Hiller comes from more of a pro-style offense, and I think has a stronger arm. Hiller's numbers are a bit down this year, but he lost 3 top receivers from a year ago and also had off-season ACL surgery.

Hiller and LeFevour are both possible first-rounders, along with Bradford, McCoy, Clausen, Pike, and possibly Tebow (if the underclassmen come out.) This draft class could rival the '83 class in terms of QBs taken in the first round.

In number...or in quality? Most ever taken in 1st round was 5 in 1999. Average number taken in the first round in the last 10 years is 2.8. I imagine that most would likely put in somewhere behind Bradford and Locker, maybe even the 4-6th QB taken which may very well put him in the 2nd round. I'm just interested to see where he stacks up among all qbs in the draft.

I've been on the LeFevour bandwagon since his sophomore season. Love his size, scrambling ability, and football intelligence. He throws well on the run, and is looking downfield under pressure - he's not an auto-scrambler. Decision making has improved from last year.

Seems like he is tough, a good leader, and one that has really transitioned from run 1st to being a QB (somewhat unlike Tebow). Is he a true 6'3?