NFL.com - Fabiano looks at the top rookie players for fantasy football (1 Viewer)

[Faust]

http://www.nfl.com/fantasy/story?id=09000d...mp;confirm=true

Mathews is the unquestioned king of the 2010 fantasy rookies

By Michael Fabiano | NFL.com

Fantasy Editor

The 2010 NFL Draft is in the books, so we now have a number of brand-new potential fantasy impact makers to consider on draft day. Not surprisingly, many of those players are running backs. If we've learned anything from the past, it's that rookie runners have the best chance to make an immediate impact. Of course, there are a few first-year quarterbacks and wide receivers to consider in larger leagues. So without further ado, here's our look at the top 10 fantasy rookies that you should target this summer.

1. Ryan Mathews, RB, Chargers

Mathews will be the unquestioned No. 1 rookie in fantasy football this season. I expect him to see 250-plus carries for coach Norv Turner, whose offenses have produced huge fantasy seasons from Ricky Williams, Frank Gore and LaMont Jordan in the past. He'll go as high as the late second round in larger seasonal leagues and is a surefire No. 2 fantasy back across the board. He'll also be the first pick in all dynasty leagues.

2. Jahvid Best, RB, Lions

Best did have durability issues at the college level, but he has amazing potential in the Lions offense which should be much improved. I consider him the favorite to start ahead of Kevin Smith, who is coming off reconstructive knee surgery and won't be as effective upon his return. Best's speed will only make him more lethal on the Ford Field turf, and he'll have middle-round value as a potential flex starter in all formats.

3. C.J. Spiller, RB, Bills

Spiller was widely considered the most explosive running back in the 2010 draft class, but he's in a tough situation in Buffalo. Fred Jackson will likely be the starter to open the season, and Marshawn Lynch remains in the mix. The Bills also have a questionable offensive line and lack an effective pass attack to keep defenses honest. Spiller is talented without question, but it's hard to consider him as more than a flex starter.

4. Ben Tate, RB, Texans

Tate is a hard-nosed, one-cut running back with a chance to start right out of the gate for coach Gary Kubiak. In fact, I'd be shocked if he wasn't atop the depth chart in Week 1. Steve Slaton, who is coming off neck surgery, is clearly better suited as a third-down back at the NFL level, and Arian Foster could wind up third in the pecking order. A viable middle-round sleeper, Tate is someone to watch during training camp.

5. Montario Hardesty, RB, Browns

Hardesty is a physical runner with great speed and playmaking ability, and his skills are a perfect fit for the Browns. Jerome Harrison doesn't have the size to be a true featured back, so he'll see more than his share of opportunities to produce during his rookie season. This fantasy sleeper is well worth a middle-round look in all seasonal leagues and has additional value in long-term keeper and dynasty formats.

6. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos

Thomas will be a welcomed addition to the Broncos which lack a true No. 1 wideout after the trade of Brandon Marshall. The Georgia Tech product has good size and can make plays in the vertical pass attack, and I think he'll have a chance to see more targets than any other rookie wideout in 2010. While he won't make a major fantasy impact, Thomas will be worth a late-round selection in most seasonal leagues.

7. Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys

Bryant, who might have been the most talented wide receiver in the 2010 draft class, has a bright future both on the field and in fantasy circles. He's an exceptional talent with a chance to develop into an elite wideout, but returns on Bryant won't be immediate. The Cowboys are loaded at his position, so the rookie would need to unseat Roy Williams to warrant more than a late-round pick in seasonal formats.

8. Arrelious Benn, WR, Buccaneers

Benn will be a major part of the Buccaneers rebuilding process on the offensive side of the football. Without a legitimate No. 1 wideout, the Illinois product will have a legitimate chance to start right out of the gate for coach Raheem Morris. That makes him worth a look in the late rounds of larger fantasy leagues. However, questions about the effectiveness of the team's pass attack will loom over his immediate value.

9. Sam Bradford, QB, Rams

Bradford, the No. 1 overall in the 2010 NFL Draft, has a legitimate chance to start in his rookie season. If he does earn the top spot on the depth chart, he'll have some late-round value in larger seasonal leagues or those formats that require two starting quarterbacks. Rookie signal-callers rarely make an immediate fantasy impact, though, so Bradford's greater value will be for those owners in dynasty leagues.

10. Toby Gerhart, RB, Vikings

A hard-nose runner with a nose for the end zone at the collegiate level, Gerhart will open training camp as the favorite to back up fantasy superstar Adrian Peterson in 2010. The Stanford product isn't going to see many opportunities to make a statistical impact behind such an elite back, but he will have late-round value in seasonal leagues as a fantasy reserve. He'll also be insurance for owners who take Peterson.

 

[Faust]

Thomas ahead of Bryant is a surprise.

 

[CanadianNFLJunkie]

http://www.nfl.com/fantasy/story?id=09000d...mp;confirm=true

10. Toby Gerhart, RB, Vikings

A hard-nose runner with a nose for the end zone at the collegiate level, Gerhart will open training camp as the favorite to back up fantasy superstar Adrian Peterson in 2010. The Stanford product isn't going to see many opportunities to make a statistical impact behind such an elite back, but he will have late-round value in seasonal leagues as a fantasy reserve. He'll also be insurance for owners who take Peterson.

No way. Gerhart wouldn't even be worthy of a bye week filler in most leagues. He'll hardly play this year, assuming AP doesn't get hurt and miss time. There are a lot of better candidates to crack the top 10 over Gerhart.

 

[Faust]

http://www.nfl.com/fantasy/story?id=09000d...mp;confirm=true

10. Toby Gerhart, RB, Vikings

A hard-nose runner with a nose for the end zone at the collegiate level, Gerhart will open training camp as the favorite to back up fantasy superstar Adrian Peterson in 2010. The Stanford product isn't going to see many opportunities to make a statistical impact behind such an elite back, but he will have late-round value in seasonal leagues as a fantasy reserve. He'll also be insurance for owners who take Peterson.

No way. Gerhart wouldn't even be worthy of a bye week filler in most leagues. He'll hardly play this year, assuming AP doesn't get hurt and miss time. There are a lot of better candidates to crack the top 10 over Gerhart.

I am inclined to agree...the only way Gerhart goes at the 1.10 rookie pick is if the AP owner has that selection (or somebody takes him with the intent to trade Gerhart to the AP owner)

 

[Faust]

SI.com

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/fant...atch/index.html

NFL rookie watch: Dez Bryant

With the draft now in the NFL's rear-view mirror and training camps in the future, it's time to take an early look at a handful of rookies who are poised to make an impact this fall. getting things started is Cowboys receiver Dez Bryant.

The 6-foot-2, 215-pound Bryant is a physical freak with a bit of baggage. In October, his relationship to future Hall of Famer and NFL Network commentator Deion Sanders put the NCAA on alert, and Bryant was suspended for the remainder of his junior season. Still, with just one full collegiate season to show, Bryant had plenty of believers. He's confident and capable of destroying defenses on every down. In March, Bryant decided to enter the NFL draft early and was selected with the No. 24 pick after Dallas made a deal with New England to move up three spots. He will wear Michael Irvin's No. 88. A few days after the draft it was revealed that Bryant has an irregular heartbeat, but his condition is not a concern for the Cowboys medical staff.

Dissecting the depth chart: Let's make it simple -- Dallas is loaded. Miles Austin ranked among the league's top receivers last year in yards and touchdowns, while tight end Jason Witten caught 94 passes for 1,030 yards. Those two players alone demand much of quarterback Tony Romo's attention. But Dallas is also financially bound to Roy Williams for another season, and Patrick Crayton caught 37 passes last year. Throw in Sam Hurd and coaching-staff-favorite Kevin Ogletree and there are a few too many egos to satisfy. Fantasy owners should still feel confident that Bryant will find his place on the field sooner rather than later; he represents the future, while Williams, Crayton and Hurd in some ways already represent the past.

Just the stats: Bryant played in just three games last season before the suspension, racking up four touchdowns in those games (161 yards in a win over Rice). The year prior, Bryant was one of the best receivers in the country, with 87 receptions for 1,480 yards and 19 touchdowns in 13 games. Highlights included a pair of 200-yard games, three or more touchdown catches in four games, and a career-best 13 receptions in the Pacific Life Holiday Bowl against Oregon. As a freshman in '07, Bryant caught eight balls for 155 yards in a loss to Kansas, then beat up on Indiana in the Insight Bowl (nine catches, 117 yards, two touchdowns).

Rookie comparison from '09: Michael Crabtree, 49ers

Like his Big 12 rival, Bryant should have little trouble making the transition to the next level (and there is a good chance he'll arrive in camp ahead of Crabtree's schedule). Bryant has an NFL-ready body and a chip on his shoulder. However, while Crabtree was able to slide into the lineup with ease at San Francisco, Bryant will have to work hard just to get reps at Dallas.

Interesting fact that won't help you: Since the start of the common draft, Bryant is the third Oklahoma State wide receiver to get selected in Round 1. The others (Hart Lee Dykes in 1989 and Rashaun Woods in 2004) didn't have lasting NFL careers.

What he's worth: Bryant has more ability than any other receiver in this draft class, but it is probable fantasy owners will see inconsistent totals from him in Year 1. Not only must he shake off the rust from not playing for a full year, but the presence of Austin and Witten will limit Bryant's ability to post steady numbers each week.

In keeper leagues Bryant has tremendous upside, but for '10 he is only worth a mid- to late round pick as a No. 5 receiver in standard leagues.

 

[Faust]

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Early primer on fantasy rookie tailbacks

By Mike Gilbert, RotoExperts.com, Special to SI.com

Some of the most exciting action in fantasy drafts is projecting how rookie running backs will fit in with their new teams. Nearly every year, some rook becomes an immediate stud, more than justifying the mid-round pick you gambled on him. Chris Johnson and Matt Forte immediately spring to mind. Of course, for every one of those guys, there are many more like Knowshon Moreno and Darren McFadden, who don't live up to the hype. Let's separate the ballas from the poseurs in this year's crop:

Ryan Mathews, Chargers

Mathews was anointed the starter upon the Chargers trading way up in Round 1 to land him. Norv Turner already said he's going to feed the ball to Mathews close to 300 times, and so the kid is an obvious candidate for a RB2 pick. His only real competition for touches is Darren Sproles, and considering Sproles is about the size of a chipmunk, Mathews will surely get all of the red zone "money" touches. That video of Ray Lewis blowing up Sproles last season is a prime example of why. The one thing standing (or more to the point, not standing) between Mathews and big fantasy points is the San Diego offensive line. The unit that paved the way for the 31st-ranked rushing attack was not upgraded in free agency or the draft, and that spells trouble for Mathews. The opportunities alone put him in the RB2 category if he can stay healthy, but the line's ineptitude will keep him from breaking through into the top tier.

Ben Tate, Texans

Auburn University has a long history of sending stud RBs to the NFL and the Texans look like they got a good one in Tate. The second-round pick should easily beat out "Slippery" Steve Slaton for the starting job. Tate is the kind of one-cut RB that can excel in Houston's zone-blocking scheme, and he has the size (220 pounds) to generate push in short-yardage situations. He's also effective at catching the ball, which could keep Slaton and the 10,000 other Houston RBs riding the pine. Realistically, look for Tate to get the majority of the touches, with Slaton filling a complementary role on third downs, for which he's better suited. Tate has RB2 potential, with loads of upside.

Jahvid Best, Lions

It's not as if Kevin Smith brought that much to the table, even before he tore his ACL. Approximately 3.4 yards per carry and broken wheels are exactly the kinds of things that cause you to be in the low end of the rotation when the team trades back into the first round to select another tailback. Best is now Detroit's top dog. Consider how you viewed Smith in your 2009 draft, and give Best a bump for superior talent. He's certainly hamstrung by Detroit's pitiful excuse for blocking, so maybe not that much of a bump. Also consider that Best is a bit fragile, and playing behind that line puts him at increased risk for injuries. Best is a potential RB2 with some yellow flags, but he does have some decent upside. If you're like Jim Schwartz, creepily lusting after YouTube highlights of Best, don't forget the one where Best almost breaks his neck on a touchdown leap. That one is the most telling about his future prospects.

Montario Hardesty, Browns

I'll give Jerome Harrison credit, he looked good in putting up 561 rushing yards and five touchdowns in the last three games of the season. But why couldn't he do that earlier in the year? The Browns didn't seem content with the answer; otherwise, they wouldn't have traded up in the second round to pick Hardesty. Nothing about Hardesty screams star, and odds are that his long list of injuries will continue in the pro ranks. However, he can definitely be the thunder to Harrison's lightning in a time-share that could approach 50/50, health permitting. He'll also have the first crack at replacing Harrison, should that year-closing stretch prove more than just a mirage. Invest a late pick on Hardesty and be patient. It may take some time, but he'll prove valuable at some point.

Anthony Dixon, 49ers

Glen Coffee was a frappaccino as Frank Gore's backup, so the 49ers picked up what could be a future gem. With apologies to Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram, Dixon was the SEC's best ruunning back last year, doing more with far less help. He's not the kind of RB you put in on third down to catch a swing pass, which could limit his fantasy value initially. He's a big, hard-charging banger. Considering Gore's injury history and Coffee's blandness, though, Dixon will get the bulk of the work when Gore inevitably sits out a few games with injuries. When you consider the upgrades to San Francisco's offensive line, Dixon is an absolute-must handcuff for Gore. Park him on your bench and leave him there, because odds are high that he'll prove useful at some point. Dynasty league owners should strongly consider using an early pick on Dixon.

C.J. Spiller, Bills

The S.S. Bills is listing badly, and instead of investing in buckets (a quarterback, offensive linemen) to bail the franchise out, they splurge on water skis (a speedy, undersized RB). They saw what super-fast RB Chris Johnson did in Tennessee and are hoping to get similar action in Spiller. The difference here is the Titans have arguably the best offensive line in the league; the Bills definitely have the worst. Let's also mention that incumbent starting RB Fred Jackson had more than 1,400 combined yards, and former first-round pick Marshawn Lynch is still on the roster. It would be foolish to dramatically cut back on Jackson's touches for a guy that looks like the next Reggie Bush, but we are talking about Buffalo after all. If it doesn't make sense, the Bills will probably do it. The impact here is not so much that Spiller becomes a fantasy star, but that he murders Jackson's value. If Lynch is dealt, expect to see a split similar to Pierre Thomas/Bush, with Jackson as a borderline RB2/3, and Spiller as a flex player. If Lynch stays, chaos reigns in the Buffalo backfield.

Toby Gerhart, Vikings

Gerhart is in a situation similar to Dixon, but his future outlook is cloudy. While he has nice hands, he's not a third down RB, so don't expect a bunch of swing passes to him. With Adrian Peterson's well-documented fumbling woes, Gerhart could be used as a "closer," i.e. a touchdown vulture and/or spelling Peterson in the fourth quarter. He's such an odd fit in this offense that it's difficult to see how he'll be deployed. He might wind up a Leonard Weaver-type, for all we know. Consider him a late handcuff pick for Peterson, with increased upside in TD-heavy scoring systems.

Dexter McCluster, Chiefs

As Crispin Glover might ask, "what is it?" A running back? A wide receiver? The second coming of Dante Hall? Whatever he is, the Chiefs must love McCluster to death to use a second-round pick on him, considering all the holes on their roster and the overflow of riches at running back. This hybrid position might sound good on paper, but the reality is that this kid is 5'8'', 170 pounds, and doesn't possess the type of blinding speed you'd think would be necessary at that size ... big surprise, he's also injury prone. In terms of touches, McCluster would absolutely come after Jamaal Charles, Thomas Jones and Dwayne Bowe. Chris Chambers has a good argument for more love, too. It's possible that McCluster is worth a late flyer in deeper leagues, but that's best case.

Joe McKnight, Jets

Don't expect McKnight to immediately step into Leon Washington's old role with the Jets in his rookie season. First, LaDainian Tomlinson will serve as the primary change of pace to Shonn Greene. Second, McKnight is just not as good as Washington. McKnight never quite lived up to the hype at USC, and if you can't make it there as a RB, you can't make it anywhere. See the career arcs of LenDale White and Bush for evidence of what mediocre backs are capable of in that system. Unless something happens to LT, McKnight won't get enough touches to even be a fantasy afterthought. Don't waste a draft pick on him; he's strictly waiver wire material.

 

[bonesman]

Thomas ahead of Bryant is a surprise.

I'm assuming these are redraft rankings, so I don't see it as a surprise. I know there is a lot of dynasty love for Bryant here, but it is not guaranteed that he'll step in as a starter in week 1 so he could easily be outperformed by another rookie WR who gets to start. Thomas very well may be Denver's #1 WR. It's pretty much guaranteed that he'll at least be a starter, right?

Is he even guaranteed to be ready for the season? Doesn't he have some kind of issue w/ his foot that prevented him from taking part in the combine and the first mini-camps? Also, wasn't he considered pretty "raw" as far as running the route tree and developing consistent hands?

 

[Faust]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/fant...port/index.html

Rookie watch: Jermaine Gresham

How good is Jermaine Gresham? Consider that he tore cartilage in his right knee last fall, missed his entire senior season at Oklahoma and still became a first round pick. Few NFL teams would gamble on such a player, never mind the fact that few tight ends land in Round 1 with two healthy knees, let alone one (and Gresham may not even have that -- he tore his left ACL during his senior year of high school).

Gresham was simply marvelous for the Sooners during his sophomore and junior seasons, serving as one of quarterback Sam Bradford's favorite targets. Now the 6-foot-5, 261-pound weapon will join a Cincinnati squad that hasn't had a game-changing tight end for years.

Dissecting the depth chart: Like a pampered socialite making an appearance at a nightclub, Gresham will move to the front of the line in Cincinnati. The Bengals did invest in fellow Big 12 target Chase Coffman in last year's draft, but he is not the athlete that Gresham is. Depending on Coffman's growth, those two could pair up to offer the Bengals a solid 1-2 punch for years to come. Daniel Coats gives Cincinnati another serviceable option, although probably only in the short term. Gresham is the guy -- today, tomorrow and years from now.

Just the stats: In 2008 Gresham was one of America's most electrifying tight ends, with 66 catches for 950 yards. He tallied five games with multiple scores for the Sooners that season, and caught eight or more passes in each of his final three contests (including the loss to Florida in the national title game). In the win over Oklahoma State, Gresham posted career highs with nine catches for 158 yards. His best game may have come during his sophomore season: five catches for 80 yards and four touchdowns against Texas A&M. In his final two active seasons in Norman, Gresham caught a total of 25 touchdowns.

Rookie comparison from 2009: Brandon Pettigrew

Pettigrew caught 30 passes for 346 yards and two touchdowns in 11 games for Detroit last season. Both are first round tight end picks, but even at that, the comparison is probably unfair to Gresham. Few first-year NFL tight ends have been able to match his measurable qualities and athleticism. He could top Pettigrew's totals by the midway point of the year if he and Carson Palmer get on the same page early.

Interesting fact that won't help you: Gresham averaged a double-double during his junior year of basketball at Ardmore High School.

What he's worth: Gresham is an intriguing No. 2 tight end prospect in standard 12-team leagues. He has good upside and will work with one of the game's premier passers. He also has quality weapons to surround him and take the attention away. It's conceivable the pay-off could be huge for those fantasy owners willing to gamble on him. The injuries should remain a concern, especially since Gresham hasn't played a competitive down since January of '09.

 

[BINGBING]

Anthony Dixon, 49ersGlen Coffee was a frappaccino as Frank Gore's backup, so the 49ers picked up what could be a future gem. With apologies to Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram, Dixon was the SEC's best ruunning back last year, doing more with far less help. He's not the kind of RB you put in on third down to catch a swing pass, which could limit his fantasy value initially. He's a big, hard-charging banger. Considering Gore's injury history and Coffee's blandness, though, Dixon will get the bulk of the work when Gore inevitably sits out a few games with injuries. When you consider the upgrades to San Francisco's offensive line, Dixon is an absolute-must handcuff for Gore. Park him on your bench and leave him there, because odds are high that he'll prove useful at some point. Dynasty league owners should strongly consider using an early pick on Dixon.

This is what I saw when I reached for him with the 18th pick in my rookie draft. I think he's in a good situation, but it may take some patience.

 

[Faust]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/fant...port/index.html

Rookie report: Demaryius Thomas

One foot injury is all it takes to keep a good man down -- at least that's true in the case of new Broncos wide receiver Demaryius Thomas, who broke his left foot in mid-February while practicing a three-cone drill. Unable to go through all the pre-draft rigmarole, Thomas started his rehabilitation and waited for his phone to ring. When it did, Josh McDaniels was on the other end, offering him a shot to compete for catches in one of the AFC's most pass-friendly offenses. But recovery has taken him longer than anyone anticipated. Originally expected back for offseason workouts, Thomas' timetable will now take him up to the start of training camp. However, team officials claim there is nothing to be concerned with after examining his latest set of X-rays.

And as if the foot isn't bad enough, Thomas has been a pro for less than two months and already he's had to deal with respect issues. Despite being the first wideout selected (No. 22), everyone anointed Dez Bryant (No. 24) the best wide receiver in the 2010 draft class. And despite being the first Denver player selected, Thomas was a quiet pick as compared to the Broncos next choice, Tim Tebow, whose jersey immediately started flying off the shelves.

If he lacks respect, at least the 6-foot-3, 224-pound Georgia Tech standout will have opportunity. The Broncos are in the market for a new No. 1 wide receiver, and most believe the team will try to thrust that role on Thomas as soon as he appears ready to handle it.

Dissecting the depth chart: The Broncos are in the process of rebuilding the passing game after parting ways with superstar Brandon Marshall and tight end Tony Scheffler this offseason. Eddie Royal is the most established wide receiver remaining on the roster, while Brandon Stokley, Brandon Lloyd and Jabar Gaffney offer experience. For now, Gaffney is the odds-on-favorite to begin camp as the starter opposite from Royal, but it's a spot Thomas will be expected to win, probably sooner than later. Another receiver who could factor into the mix is fellow rookie Eric Decker, a catch machine from the University of Minnesota.

Just the stats: A look at Thomas' statistics at Georgia Tech exposes nothing exceptional in the standard receiving categories. He caught between 35-50 passes in each of the past three seasons, including his 1,000-yard campaign last fall. And in those three seasons Thomas caught a very average 14 touchdowns (eight in '09). The number that made scouts drool, however, was his 25.1 yards per reception last season. Thomas caught at least one pass of 50-plus yards in nine of Georgia Tech's 13 regular season contests, including a catch of 70-plus in the final three games. But as well as Thomas played as a junior, the longest catch of his career came against Duke the year before (88 yards) in what can be called the best overall performance of his collegiate career (nine catches for 230 yards).

Rookie comparison to 2009: Hakeem Nicks

Nicks was also part of a rebuilt receiving corps in New York last season and managed to come out of his rookie season with some positive selling points (two 100-yard games, six touchdowns). Thomas could match Nicks' success, and a catch total of between 40 to 50 is also a reasonable expectation for Denver's top choice.

Interesting fact that won't help you: Thomas was born on Christmas Day 1987 in Georgia.

What he's worth: No matter how long it takes Thomas to recover from his foot injury he'll eventually win that starting job, and he is certain to offer more value to fantasy owners than Gaffney. In standard leagues Thomas can be viewed as a fringe No. 3 receiver (solid No. 4) with the ability to move into the top 30 with a solid showing this summer in Broncos camp. In terms of how he'll stack up against his peers, Thomas will have more opportunity than Dallas' Bryant and he possesses more ability than Tampa Bay's Arrelious Benn, making him the likely top fantasy performer at his position this year.

 

[Faust]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/fant...port/index.html

NFL rookie report: Ryan Mathews

By Mike Beacom, FootballDiehards.com, Special to SI.com

For more fantasy analysis, check out FootballDiehards.com.

For the past decade, fantasy owners haven't needed to ask "who" with regard to the San Diego rushing attack, just how many -- how many yards, how many touchdowns, how many records will be broken. But LaDainian Tomlinson's time has run out in San Diego, and so the team went shopping for a new back -- someone to rebuild the running game around. What they found at pick No. 12 in April's NFL draft was Fresno State star Ryan Mathews, who spent the last three years of his life making WAC defenders look foolish.

At the NFL Combine in February, Mathews ran a 4.45 in the 40-yard dash and posted one of the best broad jumps of all the running back prospects -- good athleticism for a back measuring 5-foot-11 and 218 pounds.

As if all of that is not enough, Chargers coach Norv Turner gave Mathews a glowing endorsement in May when he told a reporter, "... I would expect Ryan to have 250 carries and 40 catches, something like that." No rookie running back reached 250 carries last season (although Knowshon Moreno was close) and only LeSean McCoy reached 40 catches. If Turner's prediction holds true, Mathews will be the must-have fantasy rookie of 2010.

Dissecting the depth chart: San Diego returns a number of players who carried the ball last season, including Darren Sproles (93 for 343 yards) and fullbacks Mike Tolbert and Jacob Hester. And the team added Marcus Mason, who carried 26 times for Washington over the final six games last season. But this is really Mathews' gig to lose, and with his running back-friendly coach calling the shots, that's not going to happen (Mathews will have to make way for Sproles in certain formations and game situations, as the team still hopes to utilize both backs).

Just the stats: Mathews gained more than 3,400 yards and scored 41 touchdowns during his three seasons in the lineup for the Bulldogs. His sophomore season was cut short, but not before he gained 166 yards and scored twice in an upset win over UCLA. In '09, Mathews gained 1,808 yards and scored 19 touchdowns. After a win in the opener, Fresno State lost three straight against a tough slate of teams, but Mathews was marvelous during the stretch: 107 yards against Wisconsin, 234 yards and three scores against Boise State, and 145 yards against Cincinnati. The only game in which Mathews failed to top 100 yards was in his team's loss to Nevada, in which an injury took him off the field in the second quarter. Had it not, Mathews probably would have the led the country in rushing yards.

Rookie comparison in 2009: Knowshon Moreno

Moreno carried the ball 247 times for Denver last season with mixed results. He was hot in November but struggled through the season's final month, as one would expect of a rookie. Mathews could match not only Moreno's attempt total, but the number of times he reached the end zone (seven rushing, two receiving).

Interesting fact that won't help you: According to one source, Mathews scored a 16 on his Wonderlic exam -- roughly half the score of the year's top-scoring Wonderlic back, Toby Gerhart (30).

What he's worth: In a recent experts draft, Mathews was selected with the 19th pick in a 12-team league -- the 10th running back picked overall. That may be a little too high, but it illustrates the interest fantasy owners have for Tomlinson's heir apparent.

To be fair to the first-year player, he's probably best suited as a No. 2 back, anywhere from No. 15 to 20 among those at his position. He has a ton of ability and a favorable environment, but fantasy owners should never lose sight of the fact that he's a rookie, and rookies rarely provide consistent and satisfactory results over a 16-game schedule.

 

[Raider Nation]

Anthony Dixon, 49ersGlen Coffee was a frappaccino as Frank Gore's backup, so the 49ers picked up what could be a future gem. With apologies to Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram, Dixon was the SEC's best ruunning back last year, doing more with far less help. He's not the kind of RB you put in on third down to catch a swing pass, which could limit his fantasy value initially. He's a big, hard-charging banger. Considering Gore's injury history and Coffee's blandness, though, Dixon will get the bulk of the work when Gore inevitably sits out a few games with injuries. When you consider the upgrades to San Francisco's offensive line, Dixon is an absolute-must handcuff for Gore. Park him on your bench and leave him there, because odds are high that he'll prove useful at some point. Dynasty league owners should strongly consider using an early pick on Dixon.

This is what I saw when I reached for him with the 18th pick in my rookie draft. I think he's in a good situation, but it may take some patience.

Can someone tell me what Gore's contract situation is? Could Dixon start as early as 2011?

 

[Faust]

Anthony Dixon, 49ersGlen Coffee was a frappaccino as Frank Gore's backup, so the 49ers picked up what could be a future gem. With apologies to Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram, Dixon was the SEC's best ruunning back last year, doing more with far less help. He's not the kind of RB you put in on third down to catch a swing pass, which could limit his fantasy value initially. He's a big, hard-charging banger. Considering Gore's injury history and Coffee's blandness, though, Dixon will get the bulk of the work when Gore inevitably sits out a few games with injuries. When you consider the upgrades to San Francisco's offensive line, Dixon is an absolute-must handcuff for Gore. Park him on your bench and leave him there, because odds are high that he'll prove useful at some point. Dynasty league owners should strongly consider using an early pick on Dixon.

This is what I saw when I reached for him with the 18th pick in my rookie draft. I think he's in a good situation, but it may take some patience.

Can someone tell me what Gore's contract situation is? Could Dixon start as early as 2011?

A few sources online indicated the following:2007 SeasonGore signed a contract extension through 2011 estimated to be worth $28 million over four years on March 28, 2007.

 

[Faust]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/fant...port/index.html

NFL rookie report: Sam Bradford

By Mike Beacom, FootballDiehards.com, Special to SI.com

At the start of his college career, things came easy for Sam Bradford. He won the University of Oklahoma's starting job as a redshirt freshman, then followed that up by becoming the second player in college football history to win the Heisman Trophy as a sophomore.

But then Bradford's "luck" ran dry. He twice injured his throwing shoulder in 2009, first in the season opener against BYU and again five weeks later in the Red River Shootout against Texas. The injury kept him on the sidelines for the remainder of his junior season but did not deter him from taking his chances in the 2010 NFL draft. After his Pro Day, during which he completed 62 of his 63 throws, Bradford pushed past his peers and was picked by the St. Louis Rams first overall in April.

Now projected to move his way to the front of the Rams' depth chart -- assuming contract talks go smooth -- Bradford has caught the eye of talent-hungry fantasy owners everywhere.

Dissecting the depth chart: Because St. Louis showed Marc Bulger the door there is no one else who poses much of a threat to Bradford. Backup A.J. Feeley hasn't played in a meaningful game since Week 13 of the '07 season, and Keith Null's touchdown-to-interception ratio from last season (three to nine) speaks for itself. Even if the Rams wanted to save Bradford from the punishment this year, they couldn't -- not if they hope to put a respectable product on the field. And the fanbase certainly isn't going to pay good money to come watch Feeley or Null throw ducks downfield.

Just the stats: Bradford threw just 69 passes in '09, most of them in his team's win over Baylor (27 of 49 for 389 yards). NFL scouts more closely examined his Heisman-winning season of 2008, during which Oklahoma's signal caller completed 328 of 483 attempts for 4,720 yards and an NCAA-leading 50 touchdowns. In his team's only regular season loss that year, Bradford passed for 387 yards and five touchdowns against Texas. And as productive as he was for the Sooners, Bradford was also ridiculously efficient. In fact, in '07 and '08 combined, Bradford threw 86 touchdowns and just 16 interceptions, completing better than 67 percent of his passes in both seasons.

Rookie comparison to 2009: Matthew Stafford

Both players were the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL draft, and accordingly, both were snapped up by a desperate franchise unable to fully support them. Stafford had a few shining moments last season, but he didn't have the kind of time in the pocket that a rookie requires. The same will be true of Bradford, who must operate behind a line that is almost as green as he is. While fantasy owners should expect Bradford to throw fewer interceptions, Stafford's 2,267 yards and 13 touchdowns sound about right.

Interesting fact that won't help you: Bradford is one of the few NFL players of Native American descent. His great-great-grandmother, Susie Walkingstick, was full-blooded Cherokee.

What he's worth: To be frank, not much. While it's safe to assume Bradford will be the only rookie quarterback to see significant playing time this season, it is also fair to say that the Rams will not provide him with enough opportunity to succeed for fantasy owners. The team lacks a true No. 1 wide receiver, has a suspect offensive line, and is still shaping its identity under coach Steve Spagnuolo. All of this makes Bradford a risky pick, even as a backup.

 

[Faust]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/fant...atch/index.html

NFL rookie report: Golden Tate

By Mike Beacom, FootballDiehards.com, Special to SI.com

Two things we know about Seattle rookie wide receiver Golden Tate: he loves late-night snacks (especially those that are glazed) and he makes big plays on the football field.

As Notre Dame's No. 1 target the past two seasons, the 5-foot-10, 199-pound wideout caught 45.4 percent of his team's 55 touchdown passes -- an incredible figure for someone who possesses neither ideal speed nor size. Tate just has a feel for how to get open, and the fact that he played in Charlie Weis' pro-style offense cannot be overstated.

In 2009, Tate's efforts earned him the Biletnikoff Award, given each year to the nation's top wide receiver. Considering the previous two winners of the award were Michael Crabtree and Calvin Johnson, that bit of news should sit favorably with fantasy owners.

Dissecting the depth chart: The Seahawks have a lot of 'name' receivers, but other than T.J. Houshmandzadeh there isn't one that Tate won't be expected to bump out of his way prior to the start of the season. Deon Butler did little as a rookie last season (15 catches), and Deion Branch has done little since leaving New England four years ago. Tate has fresher legs than the rest of his competition, and the fact that Pete Carroll -- a USC guy -- handpicked Tate -- a Golden Domer -- should say plenty about how much respect Carroll has for his top offensive rookie.

Just the stats: Considering Notre Dame's schedule, there may not have been a more tested wide receiver in all of college football last season. And yet Tate got better with each passing week, destroying every secondary he came across. He caught eight or more passes in seven of the team's final eight games, and caught at least one touchdown in 10 of 12 contests. The best day of his career was probably his nine-catch, 244-yard effort against Washington last year, although his 201-yard and three-touchdown day against Stanford in the season finale rates a close second. Tate ranked ninth in the country in receptions (93) and tied for second in touchdown catches (15).

Rookie comparison from 2009: Kenny Britt

Like Britt, Tate enters a situation where a lot of reshuffling can be expected. The Seahawks are considering a change at quarterback and must make do with a developing offensive line. And Tate will also be given a chance to emerge as his team's leading wideout, same as Britt, who led his squad with 701 yards last season.

Interesting fact that won't help you: In June, Tate was drafted by a Major League Baseball club for the second time. The Giants took him in the 50th round. The Diamondbacks also selected him in 2007.

What he's worth: Probably not as talented as the two wide receivers selected in round one of April's Draft (Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas), Tate will be given a better opportunity to succeed in his first season. Where he will most likely struggle is in the red zone; Seattle showed favoritism to Houshmandzadeh there last season, and has plans to make tight end John Carlson a bigger touchdown target in 2010. Tate can offer good upside as a No. 4 fantasy receiver in most leagues, but his real value will come in future years after Carroll has had time to weed out some of the competition at receiver.

 

[cjack]

I understand Dallas has Miles Austin, and Witten at TE, but does having Roy Williams, Patrick Crayton and Sam Hurd really substantiate being loaded at the position? Let's face it, if Bryant can't beat out those three guys, he's a bust.

 

[Faust]

11 Rookies to target in 2010

David Sabino>FANTASY INSIDER NFL

Gridiron 11

Once an afterthought in fantasy leagues, rookies have become major contributors, increasingly worthy of serious draft consideration. While we're not advocating taking quarterbacks like Sam Bradford or Tim Tebow, players from other skill positions, such as Ryan Mathews and Dez Bryant, are slated for veterans minutes, which allows them to be slotted as if they've been in the league for years. Except in the smallest of leagues, the following 11 rookies will all be active in big ways at some time during the season. So, instead of grabbing a twilighter like Torry Holt or Larry Johnson at the end of your draft, take someone with great upside instead.

For more insights, follow SI's fantasy expert David Sabino on Twitter at SI_DavidSabino.

1. Ryan Mathews, Chargers

The leading rusher in the nation at 150.7 yards per game last season, the Fresno State product has captured the fancy of the fantasy football community now that he's been tagged to be LaDainian Tomlinson's successor. It would be unfair to lay the blame for San Diego's rushing struggles last season on LT2 alone, especially with the spate of injuries that hit the O-line. Even with Mathews on board, combined with the fact Vincent Jackson will be missing for the start of the year (and likely much more time), the Chargers won't become a run-heavy team all of a sudden, not with Philip Rivers still able to find Antonio Gates, and Malcom Floyd down the field. In other words, Mathews will be a weekly fantasy starter but to believe that he'll be the same offensive machine this year that Tomlinson was in his prime is too lofty an outlook.

2. C.J. Spiller, Bills

New head coach Chan Gailey has shown a tendency to favor the run -- in both seasons as Cowboys head coach, Dallas finished in the Top-8 in rushing yards and the Top-5 in rushing touchdowns -- so he shouldn't be too fazed that the Bills have very little passing game. That will play right into the strengths of Spiller, the first runner off the board in April's draft and someone who has apparently overtaken Fred Jackson as the main man in Buffalo's backfield. Until the quarterback situation is remedied (and good luck to all who believe Trent Edwards is the answer), Gailey will have little choice but to keep feeding the ball to the Clemson speedster. Move him up on your draft lists.

3. Dez Bryant, Cowboys

He'll be sidelined for a majority of the preseason with a high-ankle sprain. That's bad news since he's allowing Roy Williams the opportunity to re-claim the prominent role in Dallas' offense that he seemingly squandered after leading the league in dropped passes last year. However, the Cowboys brass fell head over heels with Bryant the minute he walked into Valley Ranch, so don't be discouraged. He'll be someone to consider starting every (healthy) week.

4. Jahvid Best, Lions

It looks like Best will be splitting duties in the backfield with the recovering Kevin Smith, who has made major strides following knee surgery. That great news for coach Jim Schwartz is terrible for those who are hoping that Best would be a fantasy force for a team that hasn't had a 1,000-yard rusher score more than six touchdowns in a season since James Stewart in 2000. With the workforce split, that trend should continue, making Best more of a flex/reserve option than someone to rely on week in and week out.

5. Aaron Hernandez, Patriots

One of the standouts at Patriots camp thus far has been the rookie tight end from Florida. Although the second tight end taken in the 2010 draft by New England, Hernandez will have more fantasy value than Rob Gronkowski, the first, due to his excellent receiving skills and ability to get down the field. In the suddenly stout AFC East, a big body with great hands is invaluable, and there's no doubt that Tom Brady will find many uses for his new dangerous weapon, especially near the goal line, where the running game has failed miserably in recent seasons.

6. Mike Williams, Buccaneers

A major playmaker while playing for a horrid Syracuse team, Williams' off-field problems (which he calls a "misunderstanding") led to his departure from the team midway through the 2009 season, a red flag that saw him drop all the way to the fourth round. Now listed as a starter in Tampa, Williams appears motivated to get beyond his bad rap. He'll be key to the rebuilding of an offense that ranked in the bottom third in passing yards and touchdowns. With a nose for the end zone, and a developing quarterback in Josh Freeman, who'll be able to get him the ball in position to score, Williams is someone who you'll want, especially in keeper leagues.

7. Brandon LaFell, Panthers

LaFell fell into a perfect situation for a rookie receiver, with nothing but underachievers vying for the opportunity to play opposite Steve Smith, who'll command double coverage, and on a team with a running game that will force defenses to put eight-men in the box. Further, he'll be catching passes from a quarterback who many teams will underestimate but has the arm strength to get the ball down field. A great route-runner, LaFell will make his way into fantasy lineups, especially on a situational basis.

8. Golden Tate, Seahawks

You have to be something special for a USC coach to tab a Notre Dame player as his future star receiver. After an impressive off-season marred only by a dumb incident in which he broke into a donut shop, he's in position to start the season as one of Seattle's top receivers. In part, that's thanks to injuries to other receivers, but also as a result of his explosiveness, something Seattle's offense has lacked for years before the arrival of Pete Carroll. He's a good flex option who may evolve into a great one before too long.

9. Dexter McCluster, Chiefs

Kansas City's offense promises to be one of the most improved in the league with the additions of Thomas Jones and the speedy jack-of-all-trades McCluster. A poor-man's Percy Harvin without the migraines, McCluster will operate all over the field for offensive gurus Todd Haley and Charlie Weis, playing wide receiver primarily but also on returns with an occasional rushing attempt as a tailback or wildcat quarterback. He's drawing comparisons as a more offensively-polished Dante Hall, Kansas City's All-Pro return man and part-time receiver of a few seasons back, and as such is sure to make a big fantasy splash.

10. Jordan Shipley, Bengals

Chad Ochocinco, Terrell Owens and Antonio Bryant are around, so you wouldn't think there would be any room for Shipley in the Bengals attack, but think again. Colt McCoy's roommate and favorite receiver at Texas has his sights on being the second coming of another Lone Star State product, a good pass-catcher from Texas Tech named Wes Welker. It's a lofty goal but not completely beyond the realm of possibility if Carson Palmer is fully back from his arm troubles of two years ago and if Bryant's balky knee is as troublesome as many think. Don't be surprised to see Shipley installed permanently as the slot receiver, a la Indy's Austin Collie, as the older Owens and Bryant split time on the outside.

11. Montario Hardesty, Browns

A preseason knee injury will likely cost Hardesty a chance to begin the season as the Browns primary running back. Even with Jerome Harrison likely getting the nod instead, that in no way should deter you from taking Hardesty late in the draft. Running back depth is such that good backs will always rise to the top, and playing behind an underrated offensive line that paved the way for 130.4 yards per contest in 2009, up 30 yards per game from a year earlier, will enable the second-round pick to make his mark at some point during the year. Stash him away.

 

[Trey]

I'd move Dexter up several slots on the above list.