NFL.com: "If the season ended today...." (1 Viewer)

[audiophile]

How is this possible? Tie breaking protocol as listed on same web site:

"TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM

If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.

If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.

If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.

Two Clubs

Head-to-head, if applicable."

What am I missing here.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Because the Jaguars and Dolphins aren't the only teams tied for the last wildcard spot. Denver has the 5 seed locked up (if the season ended today), but there are FOUR teams tied for the 6th playoff spot.

How do you break that tie?

Apply the division tiebreaker if any of the teams are in the same division, and take only the highest remaining division winner. This eliminates the Jets.

Then, among the Jags, Dolphins and Ravens, take the team that swept the other two, if any. That didn't happen here. The next tiebreaker is AFC record. Miami is 5-4, Baltimore is 6-4, Jacksonville is 6-3. Therefore, Jacksonville advances.

 

[JaxBill]

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.

2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)

3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.

5. Strength of victory.

6. Strength of schedule.

7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.

9. Best net points in conference games.

10. Best net points in all games.

11. Best net touchdowns in all games.

12. Coin toss

When the first Wild-Card team has been identified, the procedure is repeated to name the second Wild-Card, i.e., eliminate all but the highest-ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. In situations where three or more teams from the same division are involved in the procedure, the original seeding of the teams remains the same for subsequent applications of the tie breaker if the top-ranked team in that division qualifies for a Wild-Card berth.

There's a 4-way tie and Jags and Ravens haven't played this year so Step 2 gets thrown out.

 

[roadkill1292]

Looking at the schedules for all four of these teams, I could see all four of them finishing 9-7 with maybe the same conference records and records against common opponents. What then? What is "strength of victory?"

And I swear that the Stillers could still get there by running the table. They've got Baltimore and Miami left to play and might have the best tiebreakers in a pile of 9-7 teams. I don't trust them to do the right thing and pack it in. <_<

 

[Chase Stuart]

Looking at the schedules for all four of these teams, I could see all four of them finishing 9-7 with maybe the same conference records and records against common opponents. What then? What is "strength of victory?"And I swear that the Stillers could still get there by running the table. They've got Baltimore and Miami left to play and might have the best tiebreakers in a pile of 9-7 teams. I don't trust them to do the right thing and pack it in.

Jets will go 10-6, so no worries about the Steelers.

 

[Bayhawks]

Looking at the schedules for all four of these teams, I could see all four of them finishing 9-7 with maybe the same conference records and records against common opponents. What then? What is "strength of victory?"And I swear that the Stillers could still get there by running the table. They've got Baltimore and Miami left to play and might have the best tiebreakers in a pile of 9-7 teams. I don't trust them to do the right thing and pack it in.

Pittsburgh's conference record is pretty bad. They lost to KC, Oak, Cincy twice, Balt, and Cle. Six conference losses will probably get them eliminated if they do manage to go 9-7 and tie with other teams.

 

[pollardsvision]

I wouldn't worry about it too much. The Jags will find a way to screw it up. They always do the opposite of what most expect this season, so clearly they'll knock off the undefeated Colts next week (that's a near certainty, by the way), then lose to both the Pats and Browns.

This also makes perfect sense because the Jags are perfect at just being good enough to disappoint (as opposed to truly miserable teams). I've mentally given up on them about 4 times this season, but they never allow to completely write them off and they are still in this. Knocking off the Colts would be the perfect move to give the fans something to get excited about just in time to rip it all away by losing 2 winnable games to finish the season.

Jags will be 8-8 and all this will be moot.

 

[roadkill1292]

Looking at the schedules for all four of these teams, I could see all four of them finishing 9-7 with maybe the same conference records and records against common opponents. What then? What is "strength of victory?"And I swear that the Stillers could still get there by running the table. They've got Baltimore and Miami left to play and might have the best tiebreakers in a pile of 9-7 teams. I don't trust them to do the right thing and pack it in.

Jets will go 10-6, so no worries about the Steelers.

Well, I guess that's possible since they will play an unmotivated Indy and get an inconsistent Cincinnati at home. On the other hand, and correct me if I'm wrong here, they're not very good, are they?

Looking at the schedules for all four of these teams, I could see all four of them finishing 9-7 with maybe the same conference records and records against common opponents. What then? What is "strength of victory?"And I swear that the Stillers could still get there by running the table. They've got Baltimore and Miami left to play and might have the best tiebreakers in a pile of 9-7 teams. I don't trust them to do the right thing and pack it in.

Pittsburgh's conference record is pretty bad. They lost to KC, Oak, Cincy twice, Balt, and Cle. Six conference losses will probably get them eliminated if they do manage to go 9-7 and tie with other teams.

Ooh, that's right. That might be enough to eliminate them though their games with Baltimore and Miami might come into play if it goes to common opponents between those teams.

 

[buymeagoat]

Looking at the schedules for all four of these teams, I could see all four of them finishing 9-7 with maybe the same conference records and records against common opponents. What then? What is "strength of victory?"And I swear that the Stillers could still get there by running the table. They've got Baltimore and Miami left to play and might have the best tiebreakers in a pile of 9-7 teams. I don't trust them to do the right thing and pack it in.

Jets will go 10-6, so no worries about the Steelers.

If the Jets sweep out, the world will implode.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Looking at the schedules for all four of these teams, I could see all four of them finishing 9-7 with maybe the same conference records and records against common opponents. What then? What is "strength of victory?"And I swear that the Stillers could still get there by running the table. They've got Baltimore and Miami left to play and might have the best tiebreakers in a pile of 9-7 teams. I don't trust them to do the right thing and pack it in.

Jets will go 10-6, so no worries about the Steelers.

Well, I guess that's possible since they will play an unmotivated Indy and get an inconsistent Cincinnati at home. On the other hand, and correct me if I'm wrong here, they're not very good, are they?

I'm obviously a Jets fan, but yes, they're very good. The Jets have, by far, the best pass defense in the NFL. It's insanely good. On top of that, the Jets have one of, if not the, best rushing games in the NFL. They lead the league in rushing yards.Combine a great pass defense with a good running game, and the Jets are very tough to beat once they get a lead. Their run D is good too, so overall I think they have the best defense in the league. The big, huge achillles heel is the passing game. Calling it below average would be an overstatement. Still, I don't think one bad quarter of a team is enough to tank this team. The Jets style of play also makes the passing offense the league important part of the game, as they throw less often than any other team in the NFL.They lost four games by a total of 14 points, all that could have changed on one play. The Jets are obviously going to be in trouble if Sanchez turns the ball over early, or if the Jets fall behind by a couple of scores. But I think personnel wise they match up well with teams like Indy and SD, and I think they can absolutely cause trouble if they make the playoffs. On most teams, the passing offense is the most recognizable part of the team. On the Jets, that happens to be their weak link, so I think the perception of the team is far below the actual quality. The Jets pass defense, for example, is just as elite (and valuable) as the Saints passing offense. It's just not as sexy.

 

[roadkill1292]

Looking at the schedules for all four of these teams, I could see all four of them finishing 9-7 with maybe the same conference records and records against common opponents. What then? What is "strength of victory?"And I swear that the Stillers could still get there by running the table. They've got Baltimore and Miami left to play and might have the best tiebreakers in a pile of 9-7 teams. I don't trust them to do the right thing and pack it in.

Jets will go 10-6, so no worries about the Steelers.

Well, I guess that's possible since they will play an unmotivated Indy and get an inconsistent Cincinnati at home. On the other hand, and correct me if I'm wrong here, they're not very good, are they?

I'm obviously a Jets fan, but yes, they're very good. The Jets have, by far, the best pass defense in the NFL. It's insanely good. On top of that, the Jets have one of, if not the, best rushing games in the NFL. They lead the league in rushing yards.Combine a great pass defense with a good running game, and the Jets are very tough to beat once they get a lead. Their run D is good too, so overall I think they have the best defense in the league. The big, huge achillles heel is the passing game. Calling it below average would be an overstatement. Still, I don't think one bad quarter of a team is enough to tank this team. The Jets style of play also makes the passing offense the league important part of the game, as they throw less often than any other team in the NFL.They lost four games by a total of 14 points, all that could have changed on one play. The Jets are obviously going to be in trouble if Sanchez turns the ball over early, or if the Jets fall behind by a couple of scores. But I think personnel wise they match up well with teams like Indy and SD, and I think they can absolutely cause trouble if they make the playoffs. On most teams, the passing offense is the most recognizable part of the team. On the Jets, that happens to be their weak link, so I think the perception of the team is far below the actual quality. The Jets pass defense, for example, is just as elite (and valuable) as the Saints passing offense. It's just not as sexy.

I'm gonna have to disagree on the "very good" part of the evaluation, even if your other observations are accurate. They're 1-5 against teams over .500, somewhat like the Ravens, who are 2-6 and who I wouldn't deem very good, either.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I'm gonna have to disagree on the "very good" part of the evaluation, even if your other observations are accurate. They're 1-5 against teams over .500, somewhat like the Ravens, who are 2-6 and who I wouldn't deem very good, either.

If you're just going to judge a team by its record, the analysis is very simple. But if you want to know how good teams are, for things like predictive purposes, you'd be concerned with a lot of other things before a team's record.

 

[roadkill1292]

I'm gonna have to disagree on the "very good" part of the evaluation, even if your other observations are accurate. They're 1-5 against teams over .500, somewhat like the Ravens, who are 2-6 and who I wouldn't deem very good, either.

If you're just going to judge a team by its record, the analysis is very simple. But if you want to know how good teams are, for things like predictive purposes, you'd be concerned with a lot of other things before a team's record.

I know I'm a simpleton but it's also possible to overthink these kinds of things.Edit: I've got to stop trying to be so polite all the time. You're just being a shameless homer, Chase. The Jets stink. Again.

 

[The_Man]

I'm gonna have to disagree on the "very good" part of the evaluation, even if your other observations are accurate. They're 1-5 against teams over .500, somewhat like the Ravens, who are 2-6 and who I wouldn't deem very good, either.

If you're just going to judge a team by its record, the analysis is very simple. But if you want to know how good teams are, for things like predictive purposes, you'd be concerned with a lot of other things before a team's record.

I know I'm a simpleton but it's also possible to overthink these kinds of things.Edit: I've got to stop trying to be so polite all the time. You're just being a shameless homer, Chase. The Jets stink. Again.

The Jets are like Kyle Boller-era Baltimore, with better WRs and a Defense that's not quite as good. They lost in the Wild Card round in 03, and went 9-7 and missed the playoffs in '04. That's the same range where I see the Jets right now.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I'm gonna have to disagree on the "very good" part of the evaluation, even if your other observations are accurate. They're 1-5 against teams over .500, somewhat like the Ravens, who are 2-6 and who I wouldn't deem very good, either.

If you're just going to judge a team by its record, the analysis is very simple. But if you want to know how good teams are, for things like predictive purposes, you'd be concerned with a lot of other things before a team's record.

I know I'm a simpleton but it's also possible to overthink these kinds of things.Edit: I've got to stop trying to be so polite all the time. You're just being a shameless homer, Chase. The Jets stink. Again.

The Jets are like Kyle Boller-era Baltimore, with better WRs and a Defense that's not quite as good. They lost in the Wild Card round in 03, and went 9-7 and missed the playoffs in '04. That's the same range where I see the Jets right now.

The '04 Ravens had an overrated defense, and they never recovered after Palmer torched them. I think the '03 comparison is a very good one. That Ravens team also was tops in the league rushing and against the pass, and held up well against the run. The Jets will have a chance to win every game, but will pretty much be sunk if they're forced to pass. The Jets are becoming a very physical team, and I think that will make them a tough out the rest of the way.

 

[The_Man]

The Jets are like Kyle Boller-era Baltimore, with better WRs and a Defense that's not quite as good. They lost in the Wild Card round in 03, and went 9-7 and missed the playoffs in '04. That's the same range where I see the Jets right now.

The '04 Ravens had an overrated defense, and they never recovered after Palmer torched them. I think the '03 comparison is a very good one. That Ravens team also was tops in the league rushing and against the pass, and held up well against the run. The Jets will have a chance to win every game, but will pretty much be sunk if they're forced to pass. The Jets are becoming a very physical team, and I think that will make them a tough out the rest of the way.

Right. The '03 comparison is a very good one this year, and the '04 comparison will be a very good one next year when the Jets have an overrated defense.

 

[Mr. Brownstone]

I wouldn't worry about it too much. The Jags will find a way to screw it up. They always do the opposite of what most expect this season, so clearly they'll knock off the undefeated Colts next week (that's a near certainty, by the way), then lose to both the Pats and Browns.

This also makes perfect sense because the Jags are perfect at just being good enough to disappoint (as opposed to truly miserable teams). I've mentally given up on them about 4 times this season, but they never allow to completely write them off and they are still in this. Knocking off the Colts would be the perfect move to give the fans something to get excited about just in time to rip it all away by losing 2 winnable games to finish the season.

Jags will be 8-8 and all this will be moot.

Only four? I am at about 6.

 

[gonzobill5]

Looking at the schedules for all four of these teams, I could see all four of them finishing 9-7 with maybe the same conference records and records against common opponents. What then? What is "strength of victory?"

And I swear that the Stillers could still get there by running the table. They've got Baltimore and Miami left to play and might have the best tiebreakers in a pile of 9-7 teams. I don't trust them to do the right thing and pack it in.

Jets will go 10-6, so no worries about the Steelers.

Well, I guess that's possible since they will play an unmotivated Indy and get an inconsistent Cincinnati at home. On the other hand, and correct me if I'm wrong here, they're not very good, are they?

I'm obviously a Jets fan, but yes, they're very good. The Jets have, by far, the best pass defense in the NFL. It's insanely good. On top of that, the Jets have one of, if not the, best rushing games in the NFL. They lead the league in rushing yards.

Jets run game is very good, but their 4.6 ypc doesn't hold a candle to the Titans 5.3. Jet defense is really good as well (i really wish this translated to fantasy more). I wonder how they'd stack up against some of the defenses we saw in last year's playoffs (Pitt, Tenn, Balt, Philly) but they haven't been the kind of defense that wins games for you. I mean that in the sense that they don't score many return TDs, get a ton of turnovers, or get a lot of sacks. Those Baltimore defenses may have been overrated in some ways - but they could score 14 points on their own in any given game.

Bottom line for me is that a good defense can shut down a one dimensional team too easily. I don't see the Jets beating Indy or Cincy.

 

[roadkill1292]

Looking at the schedules for all four of these teams, I could see all four of them finishing 9-7 with maybe the same conference records and records against common opponents. What then? What is "strength of victory?"And I swear that the Stillers could still get there by running the table. They've got Baltimore and Miami left to play and might have the best tiebreakers in a pile of 9-7 teams. I don't trust them to do the right thing and pack it in.

Jets will go 10-6, so no worries about the Steelers.

I'm starting to suspect that your sense of humor is way too subtle for a simpleton like me to comprehend.If the Stillers win out, as they could, they might be able to slip in if Denver loses at Philadelphia and things end up in a 3-way tie at 9-7, since Pittsburgh and Baltimore both own wins over Denver. The Pittsburgh-Miami game in Week 17 could very well be big. If the Fins are in the 3-way mix, they could have the same conference record as the Ravens and the same record against common opponents, which would mean it comes down to that mysterious strength of victory thingie. How does that work?Stillers have big problems in a tie involving the Ravens because they will finish with the worse division record (thanks, Cleveland).Edit: Forgot to mention that the Jets could beat the Colts and Bengals to remain in the mix. That's surely possible for a very good team like them.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Edit: Forgot to mention that the Jets could beat the Colts and Bengals to remain in the mix. That's surely possible for a very good team like them.

It's not unusual to miss the forest when looking for some trees, GB.

 

[Chase Stuart]

If the Stillers win out, as they could, they might be able to slip in if Denver loses at Philadelphia and things end up in a 3-way tie at 9-7, since Pittsburgh and Baltimore both own wins over Denver. The Pittsburgh-Miami game in Week 17 could very well be big. If the Fins are in the 3-way mix, they could have the same conference record as the Ravens and the same record against common opponents, which would mean it comes down to that mysterious strength of victory thingie. How does that work?

Stillers have big problems in a tie involving the Ravens because they will finish with the worse division record (thanks, Cleveland).

I assume you mean SOV if Mia, Balt and Den are all 9-7? According to this link, Balt would be left out (assuming Denver's loss is to Philly and not Oakland).http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenari...amp;16=55141515