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There is the answer to your question. /thread
So put you down for the "crap shoot"
I believe that the money that is being offered to QB's in the first round is too much of a gamble. Defensive/Offensive lineman seem to pan out better. But, my original point was that it seems with such a high risk/return that most NFL clubs would just try and pick up a FA QB that has proven they can play. Sure it would cost a little more money, but you have a proven QB.
Tell me the franchise that hasn't had a bust when drafting a QB. TIA
How many seasoned free agents have guided their teams to Super Bowls?
Are you talking about the entire draft? Tell me the franchise that hasn't had a bust when drafting a (insert position here). TIA
Off the top of my head I can think of:Steve YoungBrett FavreKurt Warnerall started their careers for other teams to become HOF players.
thanks this helps
None of those guys fit the criteria you stated. None of them were seasons guys signed as a free agent.
Sorry misread your question, off the top of my head Kurt Warner is seasoned, and is leading the Cardinals to the SB.
I agree the money offered to unproven players (not just QB) is beyond my feeble comprehension.What franchise level QB's are available in FA? Do you settle for someone who has proven they can merely play or try to lock up that special player that will make a difference? I think your way may save you some coin short term but not the way to build for a championship.
Saying SB limits the question a lot, but taking deep into the playoffs there have been a bunch. Kerry Collins went to the SB with the Giants, Brad Johnson, Warner, Doug Williams to name a few off the top of my head. I am sure there are a few others
Yes. If he wins, that makes #1. And Brad Johnson. And that's it for the last 20 years, unless you count Dilfer, but he wasn't even signed to be the team's starter.The majority of Super Bowls have been won by first round picks drafted by their team (or drafted and traded on draft day
).Warner was, so were Kerry Collins, Trent Dilfer and Chris Chandler.
"seasoned vet or journeyman Super Bowl appearances" QBs not drafted as franchise QB by team they led to Super Bowl
Because there are more players in the league at the other positions just makes the QB stand out.
I assume this to be correct, so we basically have a better shot of making the SB with a journeyman. So it seems that it would be better for teams to pick up the FA QB, since the amount of drafted QB's to take you to the "promised land" is pretty slim. Also, out of the drafted category there could possibly be 4 HOF players."seasoned vet or journeyman Super Bowl appearances"Kurt Warner X3
Matt Hasselbeck
Jake Delhomme
Rich Gannon
Brad Johnson
Kerry Collins
Trent Dilfer
First round QBs who led team that drafted him to Super Bowl
Peyton Manning
Rex Grossman
Big Ben X2
Donovan McNabb
Steve McNair
This is just since 2000
I was going to include Tom Brady since he was a 6th rounder but I don't know if his 1st Super Bowl appearance really fits the category of "seasoned vet" and he is definitely not a journeyman. He wasn't drafted as a franchise qb either.
Clearly you are heavily stubborn and aren't objective about this theory whatsoever. Players at all positions bust. QBs really don't bust at a higher rate than any other position, unless you have statistics that can prove otherwise.
I edited my post as I forgot to include Eli Manning and put Brady in the non-franchise QB list since I doubt NE figured they were getting their franchise QB that late. I know NYG didn't technically draft Eli Manning but he went to them on draft day with the assumption he would be their franchise QB.I assume this to be correct, so we basically have a better shot of making the SB with a journeyman. So it seems that it would be better for teams to pick up the FA QB, since the amount of drafted QB's to take you to the "promised land" is pretty slim. Also, out of the drafted category there could possibly be 4 HOF players."seasoned vet or journeyman Super Bowl appearances"Kurt Warner X3
Matt Hasselbeck
Jake Delhomme
Rich Gannon
Brad Johnson
Kerry Collins
Trent Dilfer
First round QBs who led team that drafted him to Super Bowl
Peyton Manning
Rex Grossman
Big Ben X2
Donovan McNabb
Steve McNair
This is just since 2000
I was going to include Tom Brady since he was a 6th rounder but I don't know if his 1st Super Bowl appearance really fits the category of "seasoned vet" and he is definitely not a journeyman. He wasn't drafted as a franchise qb either.
I think this will happen this year.
Chad Sexington was an 18th overall pick, and he's been pretty solid (when healthy).
Have you seen the list of FA QBs over the last few years?
Drew Brees: Second round but 32nd overall pick so a first rounder of sorts at least.
There's iron, there's clad, and then there's this.
Love these stats, as they obviously mean "21 years ago. there was a QB drafted..." or "QBs drafted in the 11 spot make it to the pro bowl" FWIW, in 1983 there were 2 HOF QBs drafted in the 1st round after pick #11.
What round was Tom Brady drafted in and what year was it when he was drafted?
Sixth, 199th overall in 2000....but he is only discussing first rounders.
The article meant ONLY QB taken in the first round from picks 12 on . . . not ALL QB taken past pick 11. I had to read it a couple times too to figure it out.As for guys taken past the 11th pick that went on to the Pro Bowl drafted in the past 20 years:
Hey, I didn't write the article, just thought it was an interesting piece of data for someone who already did some analysis.
Please forward additional comments/issues/questions to: rdemovsk@greenbaypressgazette.com
This info. is of great value and supports the OP's main opinion. In my IDP dynasty league, I've come to nearly the same conclusions as this info. documents (but was just on my observations), that 1st rounder DB's, QB's and WR's have a much greater "bust" potential than RB's, D-linemen, linebackers...and from an NFL perspective O-linemen are usually the lowest risk bet position of all.One thing I have noticed is that usually the 1st WR chosen in the top 10 of a draft pans out and usually is not a bust. Its a crapshoot for the 2nd, 3rd + WR's chosen in the 1st round...some are busts and some pan out, but the highly ranked 1st WR chosen (Fitz, Calvin Johnson etc.) usually are a much safer bet.I went back about 20 years checking this stat. Here's what I noticed. First of all, there were only 13 QBs taken after #11 by my count. It was a quick scan, but no way were there 42.
Several guys make the Pro Bowl each year and only one wins the Super Bowl. Only three of them won it all on that list and only one guy won a Super Bowl for the team that drafted him. The discussion here is why an NFL team would take a QB in the first round instead of waiting or going FA. Assuming winning a Super Bowl is the goal for the franchise, you appear to be giving merit to the justification of taking a QB early. Not sure if that was your intent or not though.If more than half the teams in the league who ever won a Super Bowl did it with a QB in the later rounds or through FA, I am sure the justification would be there for passing on great QB prospects early.
What is the percentage of success even among the best teams?
When Parcells was in dallas he used to say that an organization is doing good if hits on 50% of its personnel decisions.I think you also have to consider degree. In other words, it is one thing to say that a player is not a bust, but another for him to be an top 5 or 10 at a given poistion for a good portion of a career.
I didn't particularly have a point. I was only posting the guys that made the Pro Bowl that were drafted in Round 2 or later. But since you seem to be wanting an opinion, all I really care about history wise is the modern relevancy, which to me is the salary cap era forward (so 1994 to now):Looking at each SB on it's own:
If no teams draft them, where will they come from and have the experience to be considered "seasoned"? I haven't seen many undrafted free agents that have done great, Warner is the only one that comes to mind. Romo has put up good numbers, but hasn't had great success.
