NFL is in Trouble Post-Rodgers (or The Dried-up QB Pipeline) (1 Viewer)

[tombonneau]

Me and some buddies were talking about this the other week and then there was an article from some major outlet (WSJ maybe?) that talked about the same thing. But my basic thesis is there are no superstar QBs under the age of 30 in the NFL. That's a problem.

You can argue Luck, but until he limits turnovers, sorry, he's not a HOF guy. Wilson? Exciting to watch, but is his game tenable? Plus, I believe last 2 years threw lowest # of pass attempts for a starter. Maybe Mariota? I mean, I guess I'd have to say Newton is the only one.

But without a handful of marquee QBs the NFL will face a real dilemma. I think when Brady/Rodgers/Ben/Manning/Brees retire there is going to be a real decrease in quality of play. I think we are seeing it now already. This has been the sloppiest first four weeks of football I can remember.

The big issue is the college pipeline. Not a lot of these QBs are coming out of a pro-style program and are having trouble adjusting it seems. So will NFL teams start trying to mirror college? It's usually been the other way around but I think we could be in for an awkward 3-4 year transition period in the NFL while coaching staffs turnover and adjust.

And of course none of this factors in the 8-10 year olds right now who parents are diverting out of football and into other sports ....

 

[fbelange]

Stars emerge.

1 per year or every other year is all it takes.

Brees/Manning/Rodgers/Brady/Eli/Big Ben even...

If I recall correctly, none of them were drafted the same year, and some of them were late round picks. The NFL will find the talent and good coaching will make them stars (ala Tom Brady).

 

[shadyridr]

Sorry to ruin your entire premise but luck and wilson are both superstar qbs right now.

 

[fbelange]

Bortles, Luck, Mariota, Wilson.

Those are the future stars I see at the moment. Give it 2 or 3 more years and we will have another 5-6 'Elite' QB's. It's like clockwork, or star pitchers in baseball.

 

[Shutout]

So, when 5 HOF QBs retire, 3 of which are all-time iconic players of the NFL, there is going to be a void to fill? I think you are onto something here.

Yes, the game is different but these things work out. When Marino, Aikman, Young, Kelly, Elway, Montana were ending their run, we said the same thing. Sure, it wasn't the same, but the NFL isn't worse now than it was...just different.

Luck and Wilson and Newton are fine young players. They just don't have the history stamped on their resume yet. Mariota and probably Derek Carr of all guys, along with Bridgewater are three very young guys that look like they will do some things. We can build a list all day long. It will be okay.

Now, in day dreaming of the bygone players and the different era, boy, what I would give to see Jim Kelly and Dan Marino in today's game...or even Warren Moon.

 

[Milkman]

Lol at Bortles being a star.

They could call pass interference correctly. That might open things up.

 

[Biabreakable]

Sorry to ruin your entire premise but luck and wilson are both superstar qbs right now.

Just piling on.

The league has already been shifting more towards the college spread offenses, read option is still a thing (although it always has been to some extent), you see a lot more use of pistol formation. The NFL has changed the way it plays and some of the best QB like Manning and Brady have thrived from it.

The league has been shifting towards more passing and hit high mark in total offensive plays and passing attempts in 2013, This is a trend that is likely to continue but I am not sure if the high mark of 2013 will be reached again in the near future or if that will remain the high mark for awhile. This has been the trend over the last 3 seasons:

2012

32882 total plays 1027.6/team 64.23 plays/game
17788 passing attempts 555.9/team 34.74 passing attempts/game
13925 rushing attempts 435.2/team 27.2 rushing attempts/game

2013

33302 total plays 1040.7/team 65 plays/game
18136 passing attempts 566.8/team 35.43 passing attempts/game
13871 rushing attempts 433.5/team 27.09 rushing attempts/game


2014

32779 total plays 1024.3/team 64 plays/game
17879 passing attempts 558.7/team 34.92 passing attempts/game
13688 rushing attempts 427.8/team 26.74 rushing attempts/game

2015 (sorry this is a bit off due to last nights game)

8190 total plays 255.9 plays/team 63.975 plays/game on pace for 32755 total plays or 1023.6 total plays/team
4541 passing attempts 141.9 passing attempts/team 35.475 pass attempts/game on pace for 18163.2 pass attempts or 567.6 pass attempts/team
3370 rushing attempts 105.3 rushing attempts/team 26.325 rushing attempts/game on pace for 13478.4 rushing attempts or 421.2 rushing attempts/team

So after four weeks it looks like the league is on pace for a similar number of total plays as 2014 but right now the passing attempts are a bit higher than they ended up being in 2013. Rushing attempts are below the low mark of 26.74/game of last season so far.

So if these new QB are good or not. They will have volume on their side and their numbers may look better statistically than similar players from a decade or so ago.

 

[JaxBill]

Can't believe nobody has mentioned Cam Newton. Not the pure passer that Manning/Brady/Rodgers but probably better than WIlson and talk about putting a franchise on your back.

 

[tombonneau]

Sorry to ruin your entire premise but luck and wilson are both superstar qbs right now.

This is my point. Of two "superstar" QBs one leads the league in turnovers since the start of 2014 and the other has "led" starting QBs in the fewest pass attempts over the past two seasons. They are only superstars because the league is telling you they are.

Biabreakable, you're right they will have volume on their side and surely one of the active QBs will probably end up breaking yardage and other records with the aid of longevity, but ironically the think the skill level has eroded.

Hopefully one or two emerge as generational talents given time. I'm certainly not rooting for the demise of the NFL but just thought it was an interesting topic worth discussing.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

.

You can argue Luck, but until he limits turnovers, sorry, he's not a HOF guy. Wilson? Exciting to watch, but is his game tenable? Plus, I believe last 2 years threw lowest # of pass attempts for a starter. Maybe Mariota? I mean, I guess I'd have to say Newton is the only one.

Here's one of the flaws in your premise.

 

[JaxBill]

I'm waiting for a coach to come in who announces he's going to run the spread/read-option full-time and de-emphasizes the QB position. Load up on impact defensive players and OL.

Draft oversize WR and speedy pass-catching RBs. Bring in several spread QB who can run read-option. One gets hurt, plug the next one in.

Continually draft one or two per year. Don' re-sign them after rookie contract.

Who knows maybe this is where Chip Kelly is going. I don't know.

 

[LittlePhatty]

Can't believe nobody has mentioned Cam Newton.

The OP did, first post.

Anyway, I don't think there is a shortage now compared to 5, 10, 15 years ago.

Before Aaron Rodgers got the starting job, the average fan would have guessed he was a good backup at the very most, not a world-beater superstar.

Team environment/offenseive scheme fit are also important. I'm very happy to see the Titans adapting to Mariota's strengths, instead of trying to fit a square peg in a round hole. And I wouldn't laugh at the possibilty of Bortles being a franchise starter for a long time. With the right support around him he could be Big Ben v2.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Sorry to ruin your entire premise but luck and wilson are both superstar qbs right now.

This is my point. Of two "superstar" QBs one leads the league in turnovers since the start of 2014 and the other has "led" starting QBs in the fewest pass attempts over the past two seasons. They are only superstars because the league is telling you they are.

This is only Luck's 4th year in the league - and if your premise starts with him not being a superstar or future Hall of Famer (ok, he has a long way to go for that - but you MUST see that the talent is there), you may want to reexamine that premise.

 

[Steve Tasker]

Stars emerge.

1 per year or every other year is all it takes.

Brees/Manning/Rodgers/Brady/Eli/Big Ben even...

If I recall correctly, none of them were drafted the same year, and some of them were late round picks. The NFL will find the talent and good coaching will make them stars (ala Tom Brady).

Peyton and Eli were #1 overall picks. Big Ben was 11th pick. Rodgers was the 24th pick. Brees was 32nd overall (first pick of the second round). Brady was picked 199th (sixth round).

Eli and Roethlisberger were both 2004 draft picks. Philip Rivers was the #4 overall pick that year (JP Losman was also a late first).

I'm not sure how draft status really has any impact on this discussion, but those guys were all pretty high draft picks. Brady is the anomaly of the group.

 

[tombonneau]

Sorry to ruin your entire premise but luck and wilson are both superstar qbs right now.

This is my point. Of two "superstar" QBs one leads the league in turnovers since the start of 2014 and the other has "led" starting QBs in the fewest pass attempts over the past two seasons. They are only superstars because the league is telling you they are.

This is only Luck's 4th year in the league - and if your premise starts with him not being a superstar or future Hall of Famer (ok, he has a long way to go for that - but you MUST see that the talent is there), you may want to reexamine that premise.

I think Luck is going to be fortunate in that there will be a vacuum of QB talent in the AFC once all of Brady, Manning & Ben retire/decline in 4-5 years so by default I think he'll at least get to some SBs, but you're right he still will improve. Peyton was a turnover machine his first four years as well.

I think he might have also been anointed sooner than he should of which is not helping my perception.

 

[shadyridr]

Sorry to ruin your entire premise but luck and wilson are both superstar qbs right now.

This is my point. Of two "superstar" QBs one leads the league in turnovers since the start of 2014 and the other has "led" starting QBs in the fewest pass attempts over the past two seasons. They are only superstars because the league is telling you they are.

Biabreakable, you're right they will have volume on their side and surely one of the active QBs will probably end up breaking yardage and other records with the aid of longevity, but ironically the think the skill level has eroded.

Hopefully one or two emerge as generational talents given time. I'm certainly not rooting for the demise of the NFL but just thought it was an interesting topic worth discussing.

how many ints did brett Favre throw

 

[tombonneau]

I'm waiting for a coach to come in who announces he's going to run the spread/read-option full-time and de-emphasizes the QB position. Load up on impact defensive players and OL.

Draft oversize WR and speedy pass-catching RBs. Bring in several spread QB who can run read-option. One gets hurt, plug the next one in.

Continually draft one or two per year. Don' re-sign them after rookie contract.

Who knows maybe this is where Chip Kelly is going. I don't know.

This is actually what I think will happen and be the end product of what is going on at the collegiate level. I think NFL will be forced to devalue the QB position as a result of how colleges are devaluing it. It'll just be too hard to predict who will do well in a pro style offense or what small school pro qb (a al Garroppolo) will translate to the NFL.

Of course, it will take a collective shift as well as the other top QBs fading away, but I think that is the direction we are heading.

I think maybe my premise is better put another way: There is no under 30 QB that as an opposing fan you are ####ting your pants up 4 with two minutes left and they have the ball and three time outs because you just know they are going to drive down the field.

 

[RUSF18]

Anyone who follows college recruiting will dispute his. Not saying that every top prospect, 5* kid is destined to be a star, obviously not the case, but the training that these kids are receiving from the time they get to about 14 years old is at an elite level. Not just from a physical standpoint, but in understanding film and diagnosing defenses. Hell, virtual reality is going to do amazing things for getting kids up to speed without actually risking their health practicing.

 

[shadyridr]

Sorry to ruin your entire premise but luck and wilson are both superstar qbs right now.

This is my point. Of two "superstar" QBs one leads the league in turnovers since the start of 2014 and the other has "led" starting QBs in the fewest pass attempts over the past two seasons. They are only superstars because the league is telling you they are.

INTs through first 5 seasons:

Manning= 101 or 1.26 per game

INTs through first 3+ seasons:

Luck= 50 or .98 per game

 

[shadyridr]

Sorry to ruin your entire premise but luck and wilson are both superstar qbs right now.

This is my point. Of two "superstar" QBs one leads the league in turnovers since the start of 2014 and the other has "led" starting QBs in the fewest pass attempts over the past two seasons. They are only superstars because the league is telling you they are.

Pass attempts for Big Ben first 4 seasons = 25.6 per game

Pass attempts for Wilson= 1379 or 26.5 per game

 

[tombonneau]

Sorry to ruin your entire premise but luck and wilson are both superstar qbs right now.

This is my point. Of two "superstar" QBs one leads the league in turnovers since the start of 2014 and the other has "led" starting QBs in the fewest pass attempts over the past two seasons. They are only superstars because the league is telling you they are.

INTs through first 5 seasons:

Manning= 101 or 1.26 per game

INTs through first 3+ seasons:

Luck= 50 or .98 per game

Manning's early career INTs has sort of become the "Bill Gates dropped college" argument for young QBs.

 

[shadyridr]

In other words, these guys are still very early in their careers.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

remember reading the same thing when elways/aikmans/young/marino crowd was starting to retire.

 

[tombonneau]

Sorry to ruin your entire premise but luck and wilson are both superstar qbs right now.

This is my point. Of two "superstar" QBs one leads the league in turnovers since the start of 2014 and the other has "led" starting QBs in the fewest pass attempts over the past two seasons. They are only superstars because the league is telling you they are.

Pass attempts for Big Ben first 4 seasons = 25.6 per game

Pass attempts for Wilson= 1379 or 26.5 per game

This is a much more valid reference. I do think Wilson is more limited by the system and could be better than what Carroll's system is giving him. He's probably the closets to reaching #### My Pants 2-Minute Drill status. Butler pick and all.

 

[shadyridr]

Tom Brady also started his career as a game manager. Luck and Wilson are both superstar Qbs who will only get better.

 

[Thunderlips]

The lack of young, star QBs is more a fault of the NFL than the college system. Injuries, early unrealistic expectations and flat out poor coaching have dulled some of these at one time can't miss players (RGIII,Kap). It will take one or two coaches to effectively use the skillset of these new "hybrid" QBs......and then that will be it. They'll change the game and you'll get your stars.

It's a shame that Chip Kelly's QBs have, more or less, had feet of stone as I think he could have been the one to change the system.

 

[tombonneau]

The lack of young, star QBs is more a fault of the NFL than the college system. Injuries, early unrealistic expectations and flat out poor coaching have dulled some of these at one time can't miss players (RGIII,Kap). It will take one or two coaches to effectively use the skillset of these new "hybrid" QBs......and then that will be it. They'll change the game and you'll get your stars.

It's a shame that Chip Kelly's QBs have, more or less, had feet of stone as I think he could have been the one to change the system.

Well, he'll be starting RG3 next year so we should get our chance to see.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I think the OP is right that there's a dearth of young HOF-quality passers right now. Plenty of good fantasy QBs, but I don't think there's anyone today that measures up to the 30+ crew as a pure passer.

 

[Bri]

The lack of young, star QBs is more a fault of the NFL than the college system.

Mariota seems to be heading in the right direction

 

[bostonfred]

Dalton. People always forget Dalton.

 

[RBM]

Good. I'd love to see a shift back to running the football. The best players in college right now are rbs.

 

[elbowrm]

I think the problem is more the win now mentality that puts nearly all highly drafted rookie QBs on the field immediately and as a result doesn't allow them to develop.

 

[ShamrockPride]

A QB doesn't become a bonafide star until just about 30 anyways. A QB'S prime is later than any other position in football, probably just about his 29-33 year old seasons. Obviously with the exceptions like Luck or Russ.

Football is a very complex game, especially when you have to keep track of all 21 other guys on the field while diagnosing defensive play calls while 300 pound men are trying to flatten you. It takes a LONG time for a QB to fully understand and be able to see everything going on.

 

[BroadwayG]

I can't believe noone has mentioned luck or newton

 

[fantasy stud]

Luck is obviously a future star. The guy has a couple of bad games to start the season and we are ready to doubt him? Surprised nobody mentioned Carr. He seems to be looking the part in year 2 and him to A. Cooper could be one of those historic combos. I kind of disagree on Newton. He kind of has that physical freak thing going kind of like Randall Cunningham in a different way. I just don't think he is an elite passer. I would take The Romos, Rivers, and Ryans as pure passers over him any day. It's early to judge Winston and Mariotta, but they could end up in that club. After all that, the original poster has valid points. With the style of play in the college game, I see less pro ready guys and more RG 3 and Blaine Gabbert types.

 

[bud29]

Honestly, over the last 5 drafts, 2013 seems to be the only one that hasn't produced at least a potential franchise QB. 2011 gave us Newton. 2012 gave us Luck and Wilson. 2014 gave us Bortles, Carr, Bridgewater. We have Winston and Mariota from this most recent draft. The pipeline isn't broken, but the NFL QB development system might be.

 

[Al O'Pecia]

Stars emerge.

1 per year or every other year is all it takes.

Brees/Manning/Rodgers/Brady/Eli/Big Ben even...

If I recall correctly, none of them were drafted the same year, and some of them were late round picks. The NFL will find the talent and good coaching will make them stars (ala Tom Brady).

Brady was the only late round pick of those QBS. Brees was the first pick of the second round, and all the rest were first round picks.

 

[tombonneau]

Honestly, over the last 5 drafts, 2013 seems to be the only one that hasn't produced at least a potential franchise QB. 2011 gave us Newton. 2012 gave us Luck and Wilson. 2014 gave us Bortles, Carr, Bridgewater. We have Winston and Mariota from this most recent draft. The pipeline isn't broken, but the NFL QB development system might be.

You might be right in bolded above. It's shocking the first round QBs thrown out in the trash if they haven't produced by their second year. With the new rookie caps I thought we'd see teams sitting guys at least a year, but all it takes is a few rookie phenoms (RG3, Newton) and coaches are pretty much forced to play a rookie from day 1.

And then the guys who can't produce get sent to the Island of Misfit QBs never to be startable again.

 

[elbowrm]

Taylor is a good counter example. Pat Kirwan was talking a couple of weeks ago how all the GMs were starting to pay a lot more attention to the 4th year FA candidates coming off their rookie deals - should be interesting to see if anything develops over the next couple of years here.

 

[cstu]

Stars emerge.

1 per year or every other year is all it takes.

Brees/Manning/Rodgers/Brady/Eli/Big Ben even...

If I recall correctly, none of them were drafted the same year, and some of them were late round picks. The NFL will find the talent and good coaching will make them stars (ala Tom Brady).

In 2003 there were only Peyton and Brady (who wasn't putting up HOF numbers) being discussed as future HOF'ers.

Things change quickly in the NFL.

 

[cstu]

I can't believe noone has mentioned luck or newton

Due to him being an average passer, Cam will need to succeed in the playoffs to be a HOF'er.

 

[shady inc]

RG3 will be elite when he gets another shot.

 

[JuniorNB]

RG3 will be elite when he gets another shot.

I love a good Friday joke. Good job.

But seriously, I think the best two QBs over the next 10 years will be Luck and Mariota. (of course, Rodgers will still be great for a lot of that time).

I actually think Russell Wilson is at his peak right now. If he loses a step over the next few years, his effectiveness will diminish greatly. His ability to sidestep and be shifty to avoid the push and then scramble for 10 yards just kills defenses. He will be great as long as he can do that. If he ever has to be a drop back pocket passer, I don't see him being much more than average. Cam needs to tay healthy too. Once the running threat goes, he becomes average.

Bortles has the tools. I think he'll be a solid QB, maybe having the career of a Carson Palmer. I don't think he'll ever be in the elite group, though.

Assuming good health, I think guys like Dalton, Bradford, Bridgewater, Foles, and Carr will be the next tier down. Not superstars, but soli reliable starters.

 

[zftcg]

Stars emerge.

1 per year or every other year is all it takes.

Brees/Manning/Rodgers/Brady/Eli/Big Ben even...

If I recall correctly, none of them were drafted the same year, and some of them were late round picks. The NFL will find the talent and good coaching will make them stars (ala Tom Brady).

In 2003 there were only Peyton and Brady (who wasn't putting up HOF numbers) being discussed as future HOF'ers.

Things change quickly in the NFL.

Well, Favre.

But I was just about to say that if you had had this discussion in '99, you would have said that Elway, Marino and Kelly had just finished, Young and Aikman were winding down, Favre was the one HOFer in his prime, and Manning was clearly the next big thing. (OK, you might have assumed that McNabb, Culpepper, or one of the other Class of '99 QBs would become all-timers, but you'd have been wrong). So I definitely agree with your overall sentiment.

 

[JuniorNB]

Stars emerge.

1 per year or every other year is all it takes.

Brees/Manning/Rodgers/Brady/Eli/Big Ben even...

If I recall correctly, none of them were drafted the same year, and some of them were late round picks. The NFL will find the talent and good coaching will make them stars (ala Tom Brady).

In 2003 there were only Peyton and Brady (who wasn't putting up HOF numbers) being discussed as future HOF'ers.

Things change quickly in the NFL.

Well, Favre.

But I was just about to say that if you had had this discussion in '99, you would have said that Elway, Marino and Kelly had just finished, Young and Aikman were winding down, Favre was the one HOFer in his prime, and Manning was clearly the next big thing. (OK, you might have assumed that McNabb, Culpepper, or one of the other Class of '99 QBs would become all-timers, but you'd have been wrong). So I definitely agree with your overall sentiment.

Agreed. And then you also have guys like Kurt Warner emerge out of nowhere. I think the NFL will be just fine.

 

[Tom Hagen]

Sorry to ruin your entire premise but luck and wilson are both superstar qbs right now.

This is my point. Of two "superstar" QBs one leads the league in turnovers since the start of 2014 and the other has "led" starting QBs in the fewest pass attempts over the past two seasons. They are only superstars because the league is telling you they are.

INTs through first 5 seasons:

Manning= 101 or 1.26 per game

INTs through first 3+ seasons:

Luck= 50 or .98 per game

Manning's early career INTs has sort of become the "Bill Gates dropped college" argument for young QBs.

Let's look at career INT %

Luck 2.6

P Manning 2.6

Favre 3.3

Brees 2.6

Brady 2.0

Ben 2.6

Rodgers 1.6

Outside of Brady and Rodgers, Luck is right there with the other recent HOF type QB's and is still developing as an NFL QB.

 

[Warrior]

You and your buddies drink too much.

 

[DocHolliday]

While this is an interesting discussion, the NFL is going to be fine. There may not always be a Peyton, Brady, Elway, or Marino playing but there will still be plenty of great QBs in the NFL that will have HOF careers. Tough to predict what is going to happen with the current young crop of QBs in their first or second year. Even more difficult to figure if a great QB will enter the NFL in 2 or 3 years. I am going to guess that there will be a great QB entering the NFL within the next 3 years.

 

[Mingooch]

RG3 will be elite when he gets another shot.

Just don't see it, at all. Not even a little.

 

[Shutout]

Can't believe nobody has mentioned Cam Newton. Not the pure passer that Manning/Brady/Rodgers but probably better than WIlson and talk about putting a franchise on your back.

Posted Today, 08:25 AM

So, when 5 HOF QBs retire, 3 of which are all-time iconic players of the NFL, there is going to be a void to fill? I think you are onto something here.

Yes, the game is different but these things work out. When Marino, Aikman, Young, Kelly, Elway, Montana were ending their run, we said the same thing. Sure, it wasn't the same, but the NFL isn't worse now than it was...just different.

Luck and Wilson and Newton are fine young players.

I wasn't talking about "fig" newton.