NFL off season - name two “locks” and two “bold calls” (1 Viewer)

[-OZ-]

Yeah yeah, there’s three games left in the season.

But for 87.5% of the league, the off season is here.

List two things you would bet the house on, and two bold calls. Anything from free agents, trades, coaches, draft, etc.

My four:

Draft:
Bryce Young goes to a team in the AFC south

Trade:
Derek Carr to the jets

Free agency:
Tom Brady to Miami

Coach:
DeMeco Ryans next head coach of the Texans

 

[BassNBrew]

Yeah yeah, there’s three games left in the season.

But for 87.5% of the league, the off season is here.

List two things you would bet the house on, and two bold calls. Anything from free agents, trades, coaches, draft, etc.

My four:

Draft:
Bryce Young goes to a team in the AFC south

Trade:
Derek Carr to the jets

Free agency:
Tom Brady to Miami

Coach:
DeMeco Ryans next head coach of the Texans

Which are bold and which are locks?

 

[Rubi]

O.K. I'll bite:

Two locks: 1. The Colts will screw up their head coaching decision

2. The Colts will screw up their starting QB position

Two bold calls: 1. Aaron Rogers will retire

2. Tom Brady will retire...again

 

[menobrown]

Two bold calls: 1. Aaron Rogers will retire

2. Tom Brady will retire...again

I was seriously going to post a response in this thread earlier and my locks were going to be that both Rodgers and Brady decide to return. I got hung on the bold so did not post anything.

 

[Deamon]

Yeah yeah, there’s three games left in the season.

But for 87.5% of the league, the off season is here.

List two things you would bet the house on, and two bold calls. Anything from free agents, trades, coaches, draft, etc.

My four:

Draft:
Bryce Young goes to a team in the AFC south

Trade:
Derek Carr to the jets

Free agency:
Tom Brady to Miami

Coach:
DeMeco Ryans next head coach of the Texans

Brady to Miami is a lock for you?

 

[travdogg]

Bet the house: Bears trade the #1 pick and are 100% committed to Justin Fields.

Bet the house: The 49ers are sticking with Brock Purdy as their starter.

Bold call: CJ Stroud is the 4th QB off the board, the allure of Levis/Richardson's tools are too strong.

Bold call: Supply>>>Demand at RB. Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones, Eziekiel Elliott, and maybe even Derrick Henry are all cut/traded by their current teams, and RB value hits an all-time low.

 

[zamboni]

Bold call: Supply>>>Demand at RB. Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones, Eziekiel Elliott, and maybe even Derrick Henry are all cut/traded by their current teams, and RB value hits an all-time low.

I think you're spot on about supply far exceeding demand, and it's not even a bold call but reality. We may very well be looking at an uncomfortable number of RBBCs, well beyond what we're used to. Among the guys you cited, I don't see Jones or Henry being cut, but you could make a case for any of the others.

 

[-OZ-]

Yeah yeah, there’s three games left in the season.

But for 87.5% of the league, the off season is here.

List two things you would bet the house on, and two bold calls. Anything from free agents, trades, coaches, draft, etc.

My four:

Draft:
Bryce Young goes to a team in the AFC south

Trade:
Derek Carr to the jets

Free agency:
Tom Brady to Miami

Coach:
DeMeco Ryans next head coach of the Texans

Brady to Miami is a lock for you?

If I had to bet the house on something with some meaning involving him it would be that he lives half the year in Florida. But I think Miami makes entirely too much sense given Tua’s issues, the team makeup, and his connection to Miami.

 

[travdogg]

Bold call: Supply>>>Demand at RB. Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones, Eziekiel Elliott, and maybe even Derrick Henry are all cut/traded by their current teams, and RB value hits an all-time low.

I think you're spot on about supply far exceeding demand, and it's not even a bold call but reality. We may very well be looking at an uncomfortable number of RBBCs, well beyond what we're used to. Among the guys you cited, I don't see Jones or Henry being cut, but you could make a case for any of the others.

The logic on Jones is he's due like 20 million and is the highest paid RB in the NFL by a wide margin (assuming Zeke gets cut) next year. Henry is more of a bet that the Titans kinda just blow everything up, I think they could move on from Tannehill too.

 

[bostonfred]

Lock - Carr to the Jets. They will make a run at Rodgers but it won't materialize. They've committed to go the veteran route. It's carr.

Lock - indy trades up to 1.1 and drafts a quarterback.

Bold - Raiders don't get Brady. They get Jimmy G, who reunites with McDaniels and stays west.

Bold - Bijan to Buffalo as they finally realize that they have home field advantage in a snowy domeless stadium

 

[-OZ-]

Bold call: Supply>>>Demand at RB. Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones, Eziekiel Elliott, and maybe even Derrick Henry are all cut/traded by their current teams, and RB value hits an all-time low.

I think you're spot on about supply far exceeding demand, and it's not even a bold call but reality. We may very well be looking at an uncomfortable number of RBBCs, well beyond what we're used to. Among the guys you cited, I don't see Jones or Henry being cut, but you could make a case for any of the others.

The logic on Jones is he's due like 20 million and is the highest paid RB in the NFL by a wide margin (assuming Zeke gets cut) next year. Henry is more of a bet that the Titans kinda just blow everything up, I think they could move on from Tannehill too.

On board with everything except Henry. He’s way too much a Vrabel guy and titans fans would revolt. The is loved here. He’ll fall off the cliff someday but hopefully not for a few years.

 

[Bozeman Bruiser]

On board with everything except Henry. He’s way too much a Vrabel guy and titans fans would revolt. The is loved here. He’ll fall off the cliff someday but hopefully not for a few years.

Can someone explain it to me like I am clueless when it comes to contracts.

He has 1 year left on his 4 year deal, $10,500,000.

Titans would want to trade now so they get picks, the new team pays 2023 salary and hopes to resign or use him as a 1 year rental?

How does the restructure in 2022 factor in, is that already paid and just restructured on paper for accounting or is that money the Titans and whoever will still owe him in 2023-2025?

Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry contract and salary cap details, full contract breakdowns, salaries, signing bonus, roster bonus, dead money, and valuations.

www.spotrac.com

 

[travdogg]

Bold - Bijan to Buffalo as they finally realize that they have home field advantage in a snowy domeless stadium

I think that may be the boldest call so far, though not from Buffalo wanting to do it, but Bijan making anywhere near that far in the draft. Would Buffalo trade up?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

On board with everything except Henry. He’s way too much a Vrabel guy and titans fans would revolt. The is loved here. He’ll fall off the cliff someday but hopefully not for a few years.

Can someone explain it to me like I am clueless when it comes to contracts.

He has 1 year left on his 4 year deal, $10,500,000.

Titans would want to trade now so they get picks, the new team pays 2023 salary and hopes to resign or use him as a 1 year rental?

How does the restructure in 2022 factor in, is that already paid and just restructured on paper for accounting or is that money the Titans and whoever will still owe him in 2023-2025?

Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry contract and salary cap details, full contract breakdowns, salaries, signing bonus, roster bonus, dead money, and valuations.

www.spotrac.com

He was able to take $9M in a restructure bonus last year.
-My guess is that Tennessee will try and extend him, he has no guarantee after '23, they can do a lot to make him feel good and also not hurt the franchise, lot of wiggle room here.

 

[wgoldsph]

Lock -
A WR will get traded for a 1st round pick plus
The bears trade down from 1

Bold -
Three qbs will go in the first five picks
Barkley will make cmc money

 

[Tanner9919]

lock:
Ravens part ways with Lamar Jackson
Cards part ways with Murray
Dak Prescott is traded, Cooper Rush is the new starting QB in Big D
Brady retires - he just can't throw the ball anymore shades of Peyton Manning in Denver,

Bold
Rodgers stays in GB
Carr signs with Carolina
Jets sign Love ( or trade for him if that's needed).

 

[Dizzy]

Locks: Sean Payton returns to TV and Lamar Jackson will not play another down for the Ravens.

Bold: Brady and Rogers retire.

 

[JohnnyU]

Bold - Colts get a QB but you will be fooled how they do it. They stay at 4 and lose out on their guy, so they trade down and take Hendon Hooker in the 2nd round and also trade for Jordan Love for a day 3 pick.

Lock - No matter who their QB is they will have a top 4 pick again in 2023.

 

[Hankmoody]

On board with everything except Henry. He’s way too much a Vrabel guy and titans fans would revolt. The is loved here. He’ll fall off the cliff someday but hopefully not for a few years.

Can someone explain it to me like I am clueless when it comes to contracts.

He has 1 year left on his 4 year deal, $10,500,000.

Titans would want to trade now so they get picks, the new team pays 2023 salary and hopes to resign or use him as a 1 year rental?

How does the restructure in 2022 factor in, is that already paid and just restructured on paper for accounting or is that money the Titans and whoever will still owe him in 2023-2025?

Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry contract and salary cap details, full contract breakdowns, salaries, signing bonus, roster bonus, dead money, and valuations.

www.spotrac.com

Restuctures are kicking the can down the road on money because certain bonuses are averaged out over multiple future years (signing bonus). Example:

Player is due a $12M salary which = $12M cap hit and has one more year at $12M.

Team restructures the deal to be a $2M salary + $10M signing bonus. Teams can spread bonuses out over as many as 5 years. Let's assume they do 4 years for this one, so $10M / 4 = $2.5M per year.

Year 1 = $2M salary + $2.5M restructure bonus = $4.5M cap hit.

So now the team has saved $7.5M for year 1, but will have to pay that piper later on. It could be $2.5M added to each future year, or once there are no more years all of that remaining pro-rate hits at once in a dead money allocation. In our (and Henry's) example, there's only one year after the restructure but the allocation was spread over 4 years.

Year 2 = $12M salary + $2.5M restructure bonus = $14.5M cap hit.
Year 3 = $5M dead money since the contract has expired. Teams must eventually account for all money actually paid out to the player.

 

[Grid71]

LOCK
Steelers who reached for a QB and RB in the first round last two drafts, triple down by selecting OL first in a weak 2023 class.
Steelers passive offense finishes bottom 5 in passing yards per reception and passing TD

BOLD
Steelers hire an assistant OC groomed to take over for Matt Canada mid season to provide a spark. Buys time and excuses to stick with Pickett.
Tomlin’s non losing season streak ends in 2023.

 

[-OZ-]

Coach:
DeMeco Ryans next head coach of the Texans

Well that was easy.