NFL overtime poll question (1 Viewer)

[TWP]

The reason coaches don't go for it on 4th down more often is based on the fear of failing. It is well proven that the human mind puts more value on failure than success, this is called Loss Aversion. In the case of a football coach, if he calls a 4th down play and it fails the blame is all on him. If he calls a punt/FG and for some reason a turnover happens it is the player's fault, not his.

The actual conversion rate on 4th and 5+ is 36%. Given that knowledge, how often do you think coaches should go for it on 4th and 5 in their own half of the field?

These aren't the cases where it is obviously a mistake to kick. It is the 4th and short or 4th and VERY short where coaches still punt (sometimes in opposing territory!) that are pretty clearly bad decisions...

 

[CalBear]

The reason coaches don't go for it on 4th down more often is based on the fear of failing. It is well proven that the human mind puts more value on failure than success, this is called Loss Aversion. In the case of a football coach, if he calls a 4th down play and it fails the blame is all on him. If he calls a punt/FG and for some reason a turnover happens it is the player's fault, not his.

The actual conversion rate on 4th and 5+ is 36%. Given that knowledge, how often do you think coaches should go for it on 4th and 5 in their own half of the field?

These aren't the cases where it is obviously a mistake to kick. It is the 4th and short or 4th and VERY short where coaches still punt (sometimes in opposing territory!) that are pretty clearly bad decisions...

I agree that coaches sometimes punt when they shouldn't. However, if punting is banned, coaches will be required to go for it in situations where it would clearly be a bad idea. You get a kickoff return to the 28, you run for three yards on first down, have an incomplete pass on second, and run for two yards on third. It's fourth and 5 at your own 33 and you're required to go for it--fail and you pretty much lose the game. Those are the kinds of situations you'll be in with punting disallowed.