Sorry if this is a topic for the FFA but I thought it was more a discussion for people who follow the NFL. I know there's been some talk about the NFL "nudging" games, which I unfortunately don't find very hard to believe. I do find it a little harder to believe that there's some vast conspiracy involving betting lines, but I also can't ignore 1. how good odds makers are at setting the lines (I don't care how smart you are, when the randomness of sports is in play you CAN'T be right that often, as all of us who enjoy ff know) and 2. how often and how significantly things change at the end of games with regards to the spread. The last two games of this past weekend stood out to me:
1. The Chiefs are up 45-10. The over/under is 56.5 and with 4 minutes or so to go in the game, the Chiefs go for it on 4th and goal instead of kicking the FG. Not wanting to run up the score doesn't seem plausible when you've had your entire offense out there all game "just running the offense" all the way to 45 points.
2. Falcons are up 14 and the spread is -6. Giants score a TD but instead of making it a 7-point game by kicking the PAT, they go for two, which would cover. Falcons get a FG and we all think that's the end, but the Giants go right down the field and score a "meaningless" TD as time runs out. Even SVP noted the impact of the score on SportsCenter following the game. Many teams would have kicked the FG in that situation to save time and kick the onsides kick, but then a FG wouldn't have covered.
Thoughts? Am I way off on this?
1. The Chiefs are up 45-10. The over/under is 56.5 and with 4 minutes or so to go in the game, the Chiefs go for it on 4th and goal instead of kicking the FG. Not wanting to run up the score doesn't seem plausible when you've had your entire offense out there all game "just running the offense" all the way to 45 points.
2. Falcons are up 14 and the spread is -6. Giants score a TD but instead of making it a 7-point game by kicking the PAT, they go for two, which would cover. Falcons get a FG and we all think that's the end, but the Giants go right down the field and score a "meaningless" TD as time runs out. Even SVP noted the impact of the score on SportsCenter following the game. Many teams would have kicked the FG in that situation to save time and kick the onsides kick, but then a FG wouldn't have covered.
Thoughts? Am I way off on this?