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NFL RB Prospect (1 Viewer)

wannabee

Footballguy
I am not "on the bandwagon". But, I did see a few games of this guy. I think his running style fits a few NFL teams.

Cedric Humes, VT 6'1" 233 lbs, 4.58, 40 time

I see this guy as a great fit to teams that like the North/South-type runner. I see him as a one cut runner who breaks tackles. He is not particularly elusive or fast, but neither are most guys with his running style. He runs with authority and with power. In addition, he is an above average receiver out of the backfield.

Ideal destinations:

Pittsburgh->perfect complement to Willie Parker. Perfect Bettis replacement.

Philadelphia -> perfect complement to Westbrook.

Denver -> Anderson's replacement after next year. He is what all hoped Dayne would be.

Atlanta -> if Duckett is gone next year

Minnesota -> would be a good complement to Moore and Smith if the Vikings do not sign a high-profile free agent.

Comparables:

High Side -> Bettis or Stephen Davis

Equitable -> Droughns

Low Side -> Davenport (always nicked up with "potential")

What do you think?

 
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Bloom

Moderator
good write up

a few things:

droughns is better than you are giving him credit for, i would say an equitable player would be maybe greg jones or the guy you put as the low side, poopy.

i love humes as a pick for the steelers on the second day (or howard).

one other thing i love about him that mark may pointed out in the senior bowl (and i mentioned in the rookie 100) is that humes played with a broken arm this year - durability and playing hurt is so key for an RB's fantasy value. its great to see humes is a gamer, makes me think he can take the punishment to be a chainmover in the NFL.

 

ConstruxBoy

Kate's Daddy
The one thing I think he's missing (besides the speed, moves, quickness) is great vision. Watching the Senior Bowl practices and game, I didn't think he showed very good vision. He can power/break tackles through the D-Line, but I think a RB needs to show that vision, esp if they don't have the speed/moves/quickness, to get by the LBers. Not sure if he has that.

 
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jeff_eaglz

Moderator
Good comments, Wannabee.

I've seen quite a few Hokie games over the years, and Humes looks like a solid 2nd day steal.

Virginia Tech Overall Individual Statistics

(as of Jan 03, 2006) All games

RUSHING GP-GS Att Gain Loss Net Avg TD Long Avg/GCedric Humes 12-9 162 783 31 752 4.6 11 41 62.7Powerful runner between the tackles. I like the destinations you suggest for him.Again, this leads to my theory of the "crowded backfields" and RBBC all over the place in 2006.

Not to hijack, but I think Va Tech's biggest offensive prospect that is getting barely mentioned is TE Jeff King.

Code:
RECEIVING 	 GP-GS 	 No. 	 Yards 	 Avg    TD 	 Long 	 Avg/G Jeff King 	 13-13 	 26     292   11.2     6    28    22.5
Solid hands in the red zone (most TD receptions of any Hokie in '05) and ability to get open on third down and down the seam. Solid player.
 

Bloom

Moderator
Good comments, Wannabee.

I've seen quite a few Hokie games over the years, and Humes looks like a solid 2nd day steal.

Virginia Tech Overall Individual Statistics

(as of Jan 03, 2006) All games

RUSHING        GP-GS    Att    Gain   Loss   Net   Avg    TD   Long   Avg/GCedric Humes   12-9     162     783    31    752   4.6    11    41    62.7Powerful runner between the tackles. I like the destinations you suggest for him.Again, this leads to my theory of the "crowded backfields" and RBBC all over the place in 2006.

Not to hijack, but I think Va Tech's biggest offensive prospect that is getting barely mentioned is TE Jeff King.

Code:
RECEIVING  	GP-GS  	No.  	Yards  	Avg    TD  	Long  	Avg/G Jeff King  	13-13  	26     292   11.2     6    28    22.5
Solid hands in the red zone (most TD receptions of any Hokie in '05) and ability to get open on third down and down the seam. Solid player.
King could definitely stick in the NFL, but in this deep class of TEs, i dont see how he's any higher than 7th or 8th. He is a massive target.
 

wannabee

Footballguy
thanks, Jeff. The things that stand out from these stats:

11 TDS -> decent in red zone

4.6 YPC -> good ypc always helps

41 YD longest run -> shows some speed. His 4.58 speed is not that bad for a guy of his size.

Good comments, Wannabee.

I've seen quite a few Hokie games over the years, and Humes looks like a solid 2nd day steal.

Virginia Tech Overall Individual Statistics

(as of Jan 03, 2006) All games

RUSHING        GP-GS    Att    Gain   Loss   Net   Avg    TD   Long   Avg/GCedric Humes   12-9     162     783    31    752   4.6    11    41    62.7Powerful runner between the tackles. I like the destinations you suggest for him.Again, this leads to my theory of the "crowded backfields" and RBBC all over the place in 2006.

Not to hijack, but I think Va Tech's biggest offensive prospect that is getting barely mentioned is TE Jeff King.

Code:
RECEIVING  	GP-GS  	No.  	Yards  	Avg    TD  	Long  	Avg/G Jeff King  	13-13  	26     292   11.2     6    28    22.5
Solid hands in the red zone (most TD receptions of any Hokie in '05) and ability to get open on third down and down the seam. Solid player.
 

JaxBill

Footballguy
Can he pass-block?

Can he catch the ball out of the backfield?

(Edit to add: I'm talking about Humes).

 
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boostedI4

Footballguy
I would definitely like to see the Steelers grab Humes in the 3rd round. He would fit perfect into our offense. I also like Addai from LSU.

 

ConstruxBoy

Kate's Daddy
Can he pass-block?

Can he catch the ball out of the backfield?

(Edit to add: I'm talking about Humes).
http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/scoutingr...edrichumes.htmlNFLDraftCountdown.com this the answer to both questions are YES. This one reason I thought he would be a solid sleeper.
Good find. If nothing else, a RB that comes into the league with decent Pass Block/Receiving skills is a better bet to see action sooner and be more valuable in a Redraft league than a RB that may not have those skills right away.
 

wannabee

Footballguy
Can he pass-block?

Can he catch the ball out of the backfield?

(Edit to add: I'm talking about Humes).
http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/scoutingr...edrichumes.htmlNFLDraftCountdown.com - the answer to both questions are YES. This one reason I thought he would be a solid sleeper.
Good find. If nothing else, a RB that comes into the league with decent Pass Block/Receiving skills is a better bet to see action sooner and be more valuable in a Redraft league than a RB that may not have those skills right away.
I agree, especially a power back
 

ConstruxBoy

Kate's Daddy
Very small sample size, but as I recall my ranking of the big three in these categories going into last year was:

Caddy

Ronnie

Cedric

Probably not a huge surprise that their playing time/success rate was in about the same order last year. Doesn't mean that it won't change over time, but guys who can block generally get off to faster starts in the NFL.

 

Mr. Vegas

Footballguy
I would definitely like to see the Steelers grab Humes in the 3rd round. He would fit perfect into our offense. I also like Addai from LSU.
'our offense' nice you work for the Steelers? :wall:
 

Evilgrin 72

Distributor of Pain
I would definitely like to see the Steelers grab Humes in the 3rd round. He would fit perfect into our offense. I also like Addai from LSU.
'our offense' nice you work for the Steelers? :wall:
Stop with this already. Who cares if someone says "we" when referring to the team. You buy the merchandise, you buy the tickets, you help pay the players' salaries. It's your team too.I think Humes becomes an option if he's around at 4.32 - I don't see him as a first day pick. I'm still wondering what compensatory pick Pittsburgh will get for losing Burress - probably not as good as they would have if he hadn't vanished completely down the stretch - that may dictate their strategy in the 4th-5th rounds...

 

realblue

Footballguy
droughns is better than you are giving him credit for, i would say an equitable player would be maybe greg jones or the guy you put as the low side, poopy.
Blah. Droughns has 9 TDs in 5 years in the NFL and was cut by the Lions and Dolphins.Two "decent" years lately, but one was behind that Bronco OL. He needs at least one more year before I give him credit.
 

Evilgrin 72

Distributor of Pain
droughns is better than you are giving him credit for, i would say an equitable player would be maybe greg jones or the guy you put as the low side, poopy.
Blah. Droughns has 9 TDs in 5 years in the NFL and was cut by the Lions and Dolphins.Two "decent" years lately, but one was behind that Bronco OL. He needs at least one more year before I give him credit.
He rushed for over 1,200 yards for the Browns last year. he doesn't have the dazzling speed that is going to enable him to rip off a ton of long runs, or carry a 4.6 ypc average, but he is an above average NFL back between the tackles and can really do well in the right system.If Humes were guaranteed to = Droughns, he'd be valued a lot higher than RB12, or wherever he's being slotted.

 

beto

Footballguy
No way do I see his high side as Bettis or SDavis. His high side is Davenport or Duckett. I would say he's lucky to even get drafted.

 

Tenacious D

Footballguy
No way do I see his high side as Bettis or SDavis. His high side is Davenport or Duckett. I would say he's lucky to even get drafted.
Those comparisons as upside aren't exactly an insult. Both guys have been in crowded situations and Davenport got hurt...both still have some upside. Duckett was a first rounder and Davenport a fourth rounder...those are the comparables you want to go with and say the guy will be lucky to be drafted? :confused: Duckett is significantly faster, but Davenport is a good comparison. Like him, Humes is a load with good straight line speed, but not much elusiveness. Humes also runs a bit upright, which will be a problem. Humes has been extremely durable when you consider he missed only one game in his career, but at the same time, ironically, he's been victimized by untimely injuries. He looks like the successor to Kevin Jones, then breaks his leg in spring 04, opens the door for Imoh who forces a RBBC and hangs on while Humes starts slow. Full-fledged RBBC heading in to 05, then Imoh turns an ankle and Humes breaks his arm, giving Ore some more work.

Humes was outstanding in the Gator Bowl and solid in the Senior Bowl week, so he has a lot of momentum right now. A nice 40 time locks up a Day Two pick and if he blows them away in the Combine, a shot at the late third.

 

realblue

Footballguy
droughns is better than you are giving him credit for, i would say an equitable player would be maybe greg jones or the guy you put as the low side, poopy.
Blah. Droughns has 9 TDs in 5 years in the NFL and was cut by the Lions and Dolphins.Two "decent" years lately, but one was behind that Bronco OL. He needs at least one more year before I give him credit.
He rushed for over 1,200 yards for the Browns last year. he doesn't have the dazzling speed that is going to enable him to rip off a ton of long runs, or carry a 4.6 ypc average, but he is an above average NFL back between the tackles and can really do well in the right system.If Humes were guaranteed to = Droughns, he'd be valued a lot higher than RB12, or wherever he's being slotted.
Ummm ... exactly. "Two "decent" years lately, but one was behind that Bronco OL. " The other was for the Browns this year.One year, and average at best.

 

beto

Footballguy
Those comparisons as upside aren't exactly an insult. Both guys have been in crowded situations and Davenport got hurt...both still have some upside. Duckett was a first rounder and Davenport a fourth rounder...those are the comparables you want to go with and say the guy will be lucky to be drafted? :confused:
No, they aren't an insult. I was trying to be nice. What I was trying to say is that I think Humes will never be a 1000/10 kind of back. I would not waste a draft pick on him if I were an NFL team.
 
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Evilgrin 72

Distributor of Pain
droughns is better than you are giving him credit for, i would say an equitable player would be maybe greg jones or the guy you put as the low side, poopy.
Blah. Droughns has 9 TDs in 5 years in the NFL and was cut by the Lions and Dolphins.Two "decent" years lately, but one was behind that Bronco OL. He needs at least one more year before I give him credit.
He rushed for over 1,200 yards for the Browns last year. he doesn't have the dazzling speed that is going to enable him to rip off a ton of long runs, or carry a 4.6 ypc average, but he is an above average NFL back between the tackles and can really do well in the right system.If Humes were guaranteed to = Droughns, he'd be valued a lot higher than RB12, or wherever he's being slotted.
Ummm ... exactly. "Two "decent" years lately, but one was behind that Bronco OL. " The other was for the Browns this year.One year, and average at best.
I think 1,200 yards for Cleveland, when considering the rest of their offense, is pretty damned good. Who was the last back to rush for over 1,000 for the Browns?What I'm saying is that if Humes were guaranteed to be as good as Droughns, no way you'd see him as the 12th rated running back in this draft. he'd be a 2nd or 3rd round choice.

 

Jeff Pasquino

Footballguy
I am not "on the bandwagon".  But, I did see a few games of this guy.  I think his running style fits a few NFL teams.

Cedric Humes, VT 6'1"  233 lbs, 4.58, 40 time

I see this guy as a great fit to teams that like the North/South-type runner.  I see him as a one cut runner who breaks tackles.  He is not particularly elusive or fast, but neither are most guys with his running style.  He runs with authority and with power.  In addition, he is an above average receiver out of the backfield.

Ideal destinations:

Pittsburgh->perfect complement to Willie Parker.  Perfect Bettis replacement.

Philadelphia -> perfect complement to Westbrook.

Denver -> Anderson's replacement after next year.  He is what all hoped Dayne would be.

Atlanta -> if Duckett is gone next year

Minnesota -> would be a good complement to Moore and Smith if the Vikings do not sign a high-profile free agent.

Comparables:

High Side -> Bettis or Stephen Davis

Equitable -> Droughns

Low Side -> Davenport (always nicked up with "potential")

What do you think?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
:goodposting: Pittsburgh got the poor man's LenDale White in the 7th round. Here's an SOD candidate.

 

wannabee

Footballguy
I am not "on the bandwagon".  But, I did see a few games of this guy.  I think his running style fits a few NFL teams.

Cedric Humes, VT 6'1"  233 lbs, 4.58, 40 time

I see this guy as a great fit to teams that like the North/South-type runner.  I see him as a one cut runner who breaks tackles.  He is not particularly elusive or fast, but neither are most guys with his running style.  He runs with authority and with power.  In addition, he is an above average receiver out of the backfield.

Ideal destinations:

Pittsburgh->perfect complement to Willie Parker.  Perfect Bettis replacement.

Philadelphia -> perfect complement to Westbrook.

Denver -> Anderson's replacement after next year.  He is what all hoped Dayne would be.

Atlanta -> if Duckett is gone next year

Minnesota -> would be a good complement to Moore and Smith if the Vikings do not sign a high-profile free agent.

Comparables:

High Side -> Bettis or Stephen Davis

Equitable -> Droughns

Low Side -> Davenport (always nicked up with "potential")

What do you think?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
:goodposting: Pittsburgh got the poor man's LenDale White in the 7th round. Here's an SOD candidate.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Thanks Jeff. Anyone else think Humes could be a steal in late rounds of rookie drafts?
 

Tommy Collins

Footballguy
Strengths: Has great overall size. Is tall, well-built and powerful. Has good straight-line speed for his size. Is a north-south type runner with a punishing style. Runs with good pad level and consistently deliver a blow as a runner. He can push the pile as a short-yardage runner. Shows decent burst through the hole and builds speed as he goes. Can be a load to bring down if he gets a head of steam on the second level. He has decent hands and shows the ability to consistently catch the ball on swing patterns and when facing the QB. He has very good size and strength in the phone booth as a blocker. Should only improve in pass pro with better technique and more experience.

Weaknesses: Lacks ideal experience. Is still raw in the passing game. Doesn't show great awareness as a pass blocker. Needs to show more consistent leverage and body control when sliding over to pick up the blitz. He's not a home run threat as a route runner or after the catch. He still is rough around the edges when it comes to recognizing coverages and finding soft spots in underneath zones. He has good speed for his size but he's not an elite-speed type of back. He also lacks elusiveness and won't make many defenders miss in space.

Overall: Humes played a reserve role behind Kevin Jones (Lions) during much of his first two seasons (2002-'03) at Virginia Tech. As a junior in 2004, Humes lost his job to Mike Imoh early in the season but took over the starting job down the stretch when Imoh was hampered by a hamstring injury. Humes finished the 2004 season with 605 yards and five TDs on 130 carries, while also adding eight catches for 46 yards. Most impressive was the fact that Humes rushed for 290 yards on 60 carries in the final three games of the regular season versus three of the better defensive units that his team faced last year. As a senior in 2005, Humes missed time early in the season with a broken right forearm that he suffered versus West Virginia. He wound up finishing the season with 752 yards and 11 touchdowns on 162 carries, while also catching 10 passes for 71 yards. Humes is a punishing back with an impressive combination of size and speed. He's not overly elusive and he won't generate much of his own running room. He also is just decent in the passing game. However, Humes has good NFL "measurables" and is the type of back that can wear an opponent down with 25-plus carries per game in a power-run or zone-blocking offense. Humes finished strong as a junior in 2004 but has suffered a setback with a broken forearm as a senior in 2005. If he can bounce back healthy, regain his form late in the season and build on that momentum during post-season workouts, Humes will have a chance to sneak into the first day of the 2006 draft. As it stands right now, Humes grades out as a fourth or fifth round prospect.

Possible for him to steal some goal line TDs?

 
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mbuehner

Footballguy
Wonder what this is going to do to FWP if this guy pans out?
Not much. There is no way Humes will see the number of touches Bettis did even assuming he pans out. So worst case FWP remains in the ~1500 all purpose yard, 5-7 td catagory, ok for a #2 RB. But his upside is still a bit better, because Humes is going to have to prove he can handle the roll which should also give Parker the opportunity in the first few weeks to prove he can pound the ball in inside the 10. If Humes has a fumbling issue or just doesnt get the job done, Parker could get up into double digit tds and become a viable top 10 RB.
 

Evilgrin 72

Distributor of Pain
:goodposting: Pittsburgh got the poor man's LenDale White in the 7th round. Here's an SOD candidate.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Wonder what this is going to do to FWP if this guy pans out?
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Probably not much. If he makes the team, he'll see limited time as a short-yardage / goalline back - and only significant time in those spots if Staley gets hurt again. I think Parker, on the whole, will see more carries than last year, which should lead to a couple more TDs, but will still get pulled in the "Bettis" situations. I don't expect his stats will be a whole lot difference than last year, maybe a slight uptick, but Humes' arrival is not going to change anything.
 

Englishteacher

Footballguy
I heard some pretty negative stuff about him before the draft. I believe I read that he was one of the guys who's stock fell the furthest in the postseason. And didn't he run closer to a 4.7 at the combine? I also heard that some teams were thinking about switching him to Fullback. IMO, he was lucky to get drafted. I think that the Steelers drafting him has to do more with what kind of offensive style THEY have rather than how hot his draft stock really was. He fits that RB-FB tweener style they covet for their big backs. No doubt they like physical guys. I think they'd like to see him compete with Verron Haynes although Haynes was just inked to a new contract (2 years?) so I think his roster spot is obviously pretty safe (who knows about starting job.) The obvious comparison to Najeh seems OK although I'm going to guess he doesn't have as much wiggle as Najeh. I also don't think he'll have the quickness of Haynes. He'll be bigger than both however (Najeh might be close but he doesn't play to his size, still has a little TB mentality in him) and his meal ticket might come with how he could blow guys up in the hole. As a runner it's hard to tell but hecertainly went to a team that has THE ideal style for his skill set. He could be a short yardage - GL TB though. I just don't know if he'll have the TB talent to ever be a starter. (possible he can get you through a couple of games as spot starter due to injuries)

We're all looking for finds at RB's and probably half the more obscure RB guys I've had on fantasy rosters I don't have a good idea about as far as what kind of runner they are but there's my take on Humes.

 

Evilgrin 72

Distributor of Pain
I heard some pretty negative stuff about him before the draft. I believe I read that he was one of the guys who's stock fell the furthest in the postseason. And didn't he run closer to a 4.7 at the combine? I also heard that some teams were thinking about switching him to Fullback. IMO, he was lucky to get drafted. I think that the Steelers drafting him has to do more with what kind of offensive style THEY have rather than how hot his draft stock really was. He fits that RB-FB tweener style they covet for their big backs. No doubt they like physical guys. I think they'd like to see him compete with Verron Haynes although Haynes was just inked to a new contract (2 years?) so I think his roster spot is obviously pretty safe (who knows about starting job.) The obvious comparison to Najeh seems OK although I'm going to guess he doesn't have as much wiggle as Najeh. I also don't think he'll have the quickness of Haynes. He'll be bigger than both however (Najeh might be close but he doesn't play to his size, still has a little TB mentality in him) and his meal ticket might come with how he could blow guys up in the hole. As a runner it's hard to tell but hecertainly went to a team that has THE ideal style for his skill set. He could be a short yardage - GL TB though. I just don't know if he'll have the TB talent to ever be a starter. (possible he can get you through a couple of games as spot starter due to injuries)

We're all looking for finds at RB's and probably half the more obscure RB guys I've had on fantasy rosters I don't have a good idea about as far as what kind of runner they are but there's my take on Humes.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
:goodposting: You're right on with a lot of this. I think Humes is a good fit for the Steelers. I don't worry about the 40 time at all though - I heard the other day on Sirius that Barry Sanders is the only one of the top 5 all-time RBs in the NFL who ran below a 4.56 in his pre-draft workout. 3 of the 5 ran over a 4.6. This is pursuant to a notion I subscribe to - straight-line speed is often overrated at the RB position. Strength, agility, and vision are more important, and Humes has good power and good vision.

 

mbuehner

Footballguy
This is pursuant to a notion I subscribe to - straight-line speed is often overrated at the RB position. Strength, agility, and vision are more important, and Humes has good power and good vision.
Especially for someone with Humes skill set and the roll he will likely assume. He may never see a carry outside the 40 yard line in his career, his 40 time has about as much to do with his value as the speed on his fastball.
 

ConstruxBoy

Kate's Daddy
Speed is somewhat meaningless. Quickness is not. What made Bettis so great was how quick his feet were. I don't see anything even approaching that with Humes.

 

Evilgrin 72

Distributor of Pain
Speed is somewhat meaningless. Quickness is not. What made Bettis so great was how quick his feet were. I don't see anything even approaching that with Humes.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
True enough, but then again, we're not expecting the 2nd coming of Bettis. This guy was the last non-compensatory pick in the entire draft. If he's even a passable facsimile, they got a steal.
 

Jeff Pasquino

Footballguy
Why do I think "Samkon Gado" when I scroll thru this thread?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I hear what you're saying, but he has more potential to see playing time than Gado did last year. Humes could have a defined role as a goal line / short yardage specialist - whereas Gado needed lots of injuries to clear his path.
 

Jeff Pasquino

Footballguy
Good comments, Wannabee.I've seen quite a few Hokie games over the years, and Humes looks like a solid 2nd day steal.Virginia Tech Overall Individual Statistics(as of Jan 03, 2006) All games

Code:
RUSHING		GP-GS	Att	Gain	  Loss	  Net	  Avg	TD	  Long	  Avg/GCedric Humes	  12-9	 162	 783	31	752	  4.6	11	41	62.7
Powerful runner between the tackles. I like the destinations you suggest for him.Again, this leads to my theory of the "crowded backfields" and RBBC all over the place in 2006.Not to hijack, but I think Va Tech's biggest offensive prospect that is getting barely mentioned is TE Jeff King.
Code:
RECEIVING	  GP-GS	  No.	  Yards	  Avg	TD	  Long	  Avg/G Jeff King	  13-13	  26	 292   11.2	 6	28	22.5
Solid hands in the red zone (most TD receptions of any Hokie in '05) and ability to get open on third down and down the seam. Solid player.
Jeff King Bump.
 

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