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NFLs best ground game (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter daveR
- Start date
David Yudkin
Footballguy
What are you trying to rank? Total team RB production? Individual RB production? Rushing yards? Fantasy outlook?
For example, NE ranked 10th in rushing attempts, 12th in rushing yards, and 6th in TD in 09. They ranked 4th, 6th, and 4th in 08. They ranked 9th, 13th, 5th in 07. Yet you have them listed as 23rd.
For example, NE ranked 10th in rushing attempts, 12th in rushing yards, and 6th in TD in 09. They ranked 4th, 6th, and 4th in 08. They ranked 9th, 13th, 5th in 07. Yet you have them listed as 23rd.
daveR
Footballguy
What I'm trying to do is get a grasp on how well a team runs the ball. I'm not ranking as much as tier-ing. That is, I've got New Orleans in the "superlative" tier, and New England in the "average NFL ground game" tier. At the same time, I'm saying that overall CLE runs the ball about as effectively as NE or anybody else in their tier, but better than anyone in a lower tier, say DET.I use these tiers to establish a SOS spreadsheet.
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
I think NYJ are quite a bit high considering loss of Thomas Jones. Shonn Greene looked good coming off the bench and in playoffs but toting the rock as the primary is different.
Also LT2? Looks done to me. Not saying they fall off the planet, but...
Also LT2? Looks done to me. Not saying they fall off the planet, but...
daveR
Footballguy
Makes you wonder, huh? Why dump an effective TJ for LT2? Couldn't they have done the same thing, making Greene top RB, anyway? $$$, I suppose...
NFL Teams' rushing totals from 2009, 1-32: LINK
Statistics
1 New York Jets 560 607 2,756
2 Tennessee Titans 507 499 2,592
3 Carolina Panthers 313 525 2,498
4 Miami Dolphins 254 509 2,231
5 Baltimore Ravens 260 468 2,200
6 New Orleans Saints 215 468 2,106
7 Dallas Cowboys 578 436 2,103
8 Cleveland Browns 297 498 2,087
9 Cincinnati Bengals 203 505 2,056
10 Jacksonville Jaguars 296 447 2,029
11 Kansas City Chiefs 246 438 1,929
12 New England Patriots 440 466 1,921
13 Minnesota Vikings 326 467 1,918
14 Green Bay Packers 412 438 1,885
15 Atlanta Falcons 295 451 1,876
16 Buffalo Bills 91 424 1,867
17 New York Giants 525 443 1,837
18 Denver Broncos 354 440 1,836
19 Pittsburgh Steelers 256 428 1,793
20 St. Louis Rams 296 411 1,784
21 Oakland Raiders 207 410 1,701
22 Philadelphia Eagles 241 384 1,637
23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 276 404 1,627
24 Detroit Lions 349 409 1,616
25 San Francisco 49ers 268 371 1,600
26 Seattle Seahawks 193 395 1,566
27 Washington Redskins 392 391 1,510
28 Arizona Cardinals 329 365 1,494
29 Chicago Bears 463 373 1,492
30 Houston Texans 157 425 1,475
31 San Diego Chargers 199 427 1,423
32 Indianapolis Colts 386 366 1,294
NFL Teams' average yards per rush from 2009, 1-32: LINK
1 Tennessee Titans 507 499 2,592 5.2
2 Carolina Panthers 313 525 2,498 4.8
3 Dallas Cowboys 578 436 2,103 4.8
4 Baltimore Ravens 260 468 2,200 4.7
5 Jacksonville Jaguars 296 447 2,029 4.5
6 New Orleans Saints 215 468 2,106 4.5
7 New York Jets 560 607 2,756 4.5
8 Buffalo Bills 91 424 1,867 4.4
9 Miami Dolphins 254 509 2,231 4.4
10 Kansas City Chiefs 246 438 1,929 4.4
11 Green Bay Packers 412 438 1,885 4.3
12 San Francisco 49ers 268 371 1,600 4.3
13 St. Louis Rams 296 411 1,784 4.3
14 Philadelphia Eagles 241 384 1,637 4.3
15 Atlanta Falcons 295 451 1,876 4.2
16 Denver Broncos 354 440 1,836 4.2
17 Pittsburgh Steelers 256 428 1,793 4.2
18 Cleveland Browns 297 498 2,087 4.2
19 Arizona Cardinals 329 365 1,494 4.1
20 Minnesota Vikings 326 467 1,918 4.1
21 Cincinnati Bengals 203 505 2,056 4.1
22 New England Patriots 440 466 1,921 4.1
23 Oakland Raiders 207 410 1,701 4.1
24 New York Giants 525 443 1,837 4.1
25 Chicago Bears 463 373 1,492 4.0
26 Seattle Seahawks 193 395 1,566 4.0
27 Detroit Lions 349 409 1,616 4.0
28 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 276 404 1,627 4.0
29 Washington Redskins 392 391 1,510 3.9
30 Houston Texans 157 425 1,475 3.5
31 Indianapolis Colts 386 366 1,294 3.5
32 San Diego Chargers 199 427 1,423 3.3
OK, here's the way I would break down the teams' performance just from the raw 2009 statistics:
Elite Teams (4) - top 10 rushing total and yards-per-carry above 4.6
Titans, Panthers, Ravens, Cowboys
TEN, CAR, BAL, DAL
Outstanding Teams (7) - Top 16 rushing total and yards per carry between 4.3 and 4.5
Jets, Dolphins, Saints, Jaguars, Chiefs, Packers, Bills
NYJ, MIA, NO, JAX, KC, GB, BUF
[Notes: Obviously, the KC and BUF performances are suspect and due to special circumstances (KC Charles' insane 5.9 ypc due to facing mostly prevent D's, ditto BUF facing a lot of prevent D's) - I'd call Charles' second half of 2009 outstanding, but not KC's performance overall. BUF did well to hit their numbers, but I don't think anyone would call them Outstanding due to their manifest OL issues. So these two would be adjusted down to average IMO after we process the raw numbers. The loss of Thomas Jones and Leon Washington for the NYJ is a concern, but their OL is so outstanding that I'd be inclined to keep them in this second tier - just some random notes]
Average Teams (13) - top 24 rushing totals and yards per carry between 4.0 and 4.2 (or above in ypc if below top 16 in total yards)
Browns, Bengals, Patriots, Vikings, Falcons, Giants, Broncos, Steelers, Rams, Raiders, Eagles, Bucs, Lions
CLE, CIN, NE, MIN, ATL, NYG, DEN, PIT, STL, OAK, PHI, TB, DET
[Notes: The Vikings as a team weren't outstanding in the rushing category last season, but Peterson's huge work load and his TD scoring potential makes him an outstanding to elite fantasy back none-the-less. In the opposite vein, Steven Jackson is an incredible talent at RB when healthy, but the Rams only scored four rushing TDs last year and haven't gone above mid-single-digits in rushing TDs for three seasons due to a horrible offense surrounding Jackson. With a rookie QB starting the bulk of 2010, the surrounding team in STL is enough to keep Jackson average in scoring potential, IMO, due to a derth of TDs in STL. So here we see some of the limitations of backwards-looking tiering based on merely raw statistics]
Below Average Teams (4) - below #24 in total rushing yards, above 4.0 yards per rush
San Francisco, Seattle, Arizona, Chicago
SF, SEA, ARI, CHI
[Notes: Obviously, Frank Gore is good enough, and the improving SF offense is promising enough, to elevate our forward-looking expectations to at least average and perhaps outstanding for 2010. Many expect ARI to lean on the running game more with Warner out of town. Martz's offense with Chester Taylor should help lift CHI back to average at least. SEA is a RBBC mess in fantasy terms, IMO, as of late May although that may clarify during pre-season]
Bad Teams (4) - Below #24 in total rushing yards, below 4.0 yards per rush
Washington, Houston, Chargers, Colts
WAS, HOU, SD, IND
[Notes: WAS looks like a RBBC from the nether regions during 2010 IMO. HOU has prospects for improvement if Ben Tate pans out or if Slaton's spinal/nerve surgery is actually a success and he returns to form; Ryan Mathews makes the 2010 situation for SD fluid; Colts' backs are limited by offensive scheme - Addai is more valuable in PPR leagues]
HTH - MW
Statistics
1 New York Jets 560 607 2,756
2 Tennessee Titans 507 499 2,592
3 Carolina Panthers 313 525 2,498
4 Miami Dolphins 254 509 2,231
5 Baltimore Ravens 260 468 2,200
6 New Orleans Saints 215 468 2,106
7 Dallas Cowboys 578 436 2,103
8 Cleveland Browns 297 498 2,087
9 Cincinnati Bengals 203 505 2,056
10 Jacksonville Jaguars 296 447 2,029
11 Kansas City Chiefs 246 438 1,929
12 New England Patriots 440 466 1,921
13 Minnesota Vikings 326 467 1,918
14 Green Bay Packers 412 438 1,885
15 Atlanta Falcons 295 451 1,876
16 Buffalo Bills 91 424 1,867
17 New York Giants 525 443 1,837
18 Denver Broncos 354 440 1,836
19 Pittsburgh Steelers 256 428 1,793
20 St. Louis Rams 296 411 1,784
21 Oakland Raiders 207 410 1,701
22 Philadelphia Eagles 241 384 1,637
23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 276 404 1,627
24 Detroit Lions 349 409 1,616
25 San Francisco 49ers 268 371 1,600
26 Seattle Seahawks 193 395 1,566
27 Washington Redskins 392 391 1,510
28 Arizona Cardinals 329 365 1,494
29 Chicago Bears 463 373 1,492
30 Houston Texans 157 425 1,475
31 San Diego Chargers 199 427 1,423
32 Indianapolis Colts 386 366 1,294
NFL Teams' average yards per rush from 2009, 1-32: LINK
1 Tennessee Titans 507 499 2,592 5.2
2 Carolina Panthers 313 525 2,498 4.8
3 Dallas Cowboys 578 436 2,103 4.8
4 Baltimore Ravens 260 468 2,200 4.7
5 Jacksonville Jaguars 296 447 2,029 4.5
6 New Orleans Saints 215 468 2,106 4.5
7 New York Jets 560 607 2,756 4.5
8 Buffalo Bills 91 424 1,867 4.4
9 Miami Dolphins 254 509 2,231 4.4
10 Kansas City Chiefs 246 438 1,929 4.4
11 Green Bay Packers 412 438 1,885 4.3
12 San Francisco 49ers 268 371 1,600 4.3
13 St. Louis Rams 296 411 1,784 4.3
14 Philadelphia Eagles 241 384 1,637 4.3
15 Atlanta Falcons 295 451 1,876 4.2
16 Denver Broncos 354 440 1,836 4.2
17 Pittsburgh Steelers 256 428 1,793 4.2
18 Cleveland Browns 297 498 2,087 4.2
19 Arizona Cardinals 329 365 1,494 4.1
20 Minnesota Vikings 326 467 1,918 4.1
21 Cincinnati Bengals 203 505 2,056 4.1
22 New England Patriots 440 466 1,921 4.1
23 Oakland Raiders 207 410 1,701 4.1
24 New York Giants 525 443 1,837 4.1
25 Chicago Bears 463 373 1,492 4.0
26 Seattle Seahawks 193 395 1,566 4.0
27 Detroit Lions 349 409 1,616 4.0
28 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 276 404 1,627 4.0
29 Washington Redskins 392 391 1,510 3.9
30 Houston Texans 157 425 1,475 3.5
31 Indianapolis Colts 386 366 1,294 3.5
32 San Diego Chargers 199 427 1,423 3.3
OK, here's the way I would break down the teams' performance just from the raw 2009 statistics:
Elite Teams (4) - top 10 rushing total and yards-per-carry above 4.6
Titans, Panthers, Ravens, Cowboys
TEN, CAR, BAL, DAL
Outstanding Teams (7) - Top 16 rushing total and yards per carry between 4.3 and 4.5
Jets, Dolphins, Saints, Jaguars, Chiefs, Packers, Bills
NYJ, MIA, NO, JAX, KC, GB, BUF
[Notes: Obviously, the KC and BUF performances are suspect and due to special circumstances (KC Charles' insane 5.9 ypc due to facing mostly prevent D's, ditto BUF facing a lot of prevent D's) - I'd call Charles' second half of 2009 outstanding, but not KC's performance overall. BUF did well to hit their numbers, but I don't think anyone would call them Outstanding due to their manifest OL issues. So these two would be adjusted down to average IMO after we process the raw numbers. The loss of Thomas Jones and Leon Washington for the NYJ is a concern, but their OL is so outstanding that I'd be inclined to keep them in this second tier - just some random notes]
Average Teams (13) - top 24 rushing totals and yards per carry between 4.0 and 4.2 (or above in ypc if below top 16 in total yards)
Browns, Bengals, Patriots, Vikings, Falcons, Giants, Broncos, Steelers, Rams, Raiders, Eagles, Bucs, Lions
CLE, CIN, NE, MIN, ATL, NYG, DEN, PIT, STL, OAK, PHI, TB, DET
[Notes: The Vikings as a team weren't outstanding in the rushing category last season, but Peterson's huge work load and his TD scoring potential makes him an outstanding to elite fantasy back none-the-less. In the opposite vein, Steven Jackson is an incredible talent at RB when healthy, but the Rams only scored four rushing TDs last year and haven't gone above mid-single-digits in rushing TDs for three seasons due to a horrible offense surrounding Jackson. With a rookie QB starting the bulk of 2010, the surrounding team in STL is enough to keep Jackson average in scoring potential, IMO, due to a derth of TDs in STL. So here we see some of the limitations of backwards-looking tiering based on merely raw statistics]
Below Average Teams (4) - below #24 in total rushing yards, above 4.0 yards per rush
San Francisco, Seattle, Arizona, Chicago
SF, SEA, ARI, CHI
[Notes: Obviously, Frank Gore is good enough, and the improving SF offense is promising enough, to elevate our forward-looking expectations to at least average and perhaps outstanding for 2010. Many expect ARI to lean on the running game more with Warner out of town. Martz's offense with Chester Taylor should help lift CHI back to average at least. SEA is a RBBC mess in fantasy terms, IMO, as of late May although that may clarify during pre-season]
Bad Teams (4) - Below #24 in total rushing yards, below 4.0 yards per rush
Washington, Houston, Chargers, Colts
WAS, HOU, SD, IND
[Notes: WAS looks like a RBBC from the nether regions during 2010 IMO. HOU has prospects for improvement if Ben Tate pans out or if Slaton's spinal/nerve surgery is actually a success and he returns to form; Ryan Mathews makes the 2010 situation for SD fluid; Colts' backs are limited by offensive scheme - Addai is more valuable in PPR leagues]
HTH - MW
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TitansFan10
Footballguy
I agree with Wimer. They (NE) are average when you tier them.
daveR
Footballguy
Thanks, Mark.
This is the sort of thing I have done on my own. I wanted to see where people agree / disagree.
ETA: We are essentially in agreement. You have KC & BUF slotted higher (already discussed), as well as DET and GB. I'm not sure why that is for the latter two. Think Best will be a stud? Think GB's new OT will improve them that much?
This is the sort of thing I have done on my own. I wanted to see where people agree / disagree.
ETA: We are essentially in agreement. You have KC & BUF slotted higher (already discussed), as well as DET and GB. I'm not sure why that is for the latter two. Think Best will be a stud? Think GB's new OT will improve them that much?
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I like what Detroit has done on offense across the board. Nate Burleson to be #2 should take some defensive pressure off Calvin Johnson and open up the passing game. Scheffler at TE to stand in until Pettigrew is back up to speed, and then potential 2-TE sets with threats to catch from both Scheffler and Pettigrew. Best (as long as he doesn't get concussed again) is an intriguing talent and worth the elevated injury risk due to his past history, IMO. Plus Stafford has a year under his belt now and should be able to improve to respectable levels during 2010 given the upgraded talent around him. For the first time over the past decade, I'm actually excited to see what happens with the Lions' offense this year. It's been quite awhile since I felt that way about this team. GB's OL needed help and got it in the draft - I like the new talents in Bulaga and Newhouse - big bodied 310+ guys who can learn from Clifton and Tauscher - Bulaga could step in if necessary IMO. I think Grant is a solid, capable back and benefits from playing with arguably the most lethal passing attack in the NFL (either GB or New Orleans is the best in the NFC for sure). With what Rodgers has at his disposal at TE and WR, opposing defenses simply can't load up to stop Grant which allows him to maximize his talent with good creases/holes. I'm with holding judgement on Best until I see more of him at this level (27th on my redraft RB board right now) as I have seen lots of rookies disappoint in NFL year one, but if he shows NFL-caliber ability during preseason he'll move up into RB2 range on my board. I do believe that the DET offense in general will be much more capable this year, which should lift production at all key offensive skill positions (simply because the team as a whole will score a good bit more than last year (24th in passing TDs and 22nd in rushing TDs last year - look for them to move into the middle teens in both categories at a minimum). If Best busts, Maurice Morris and Aaron Brown could be an adequate tandem, though I'd be less enthusiastic about the Lions' rushing attack with that pair headlining in a committee. But I don't think Best will bust.Thanks, Mark.This is the sort of thing I have done on my own. I wanted to see where people agree / disagree.ETA: We are essentially in agreement. You have KC & BUF slotted higher (already discussed), as well as DET and GB. I'm not sure why that is for the latter two. Think Best will be a stud? Think GB's new OT will improve them that much?
Aardvarks
Footballguy
Tennessee and Carolina have the 2 best pure running games in the NFL. I slide NYJ into a close 3rd because their avg per carry (4.5) was lower than Tennessee (5.2) and Carolina (4.8) despite more "talent" on the O-line.
Both Tennessee & Carolina's ground attacks are simple, man-block, no tricks, and everyone in the stadium knows it's coming. Both have subpar passing attacks and hence, safeties cheat for a living. Both like to use 2-TE sets and that's about as exotic as it gets.
Both will continue to run the ball 500-550 times annually until they get their QB problems sorted out - which I don't expect to happen for either team in 2010.
Both Tennessee & Carolina's ground attacks are simple, man-block, no tricks, and everyone in the stadium knows it's coming. Both have subpar passing attacks and hence, safeties cheat for a living. Both like to use 2-TE sets and that's about as exotic as it gets.
Both will continue to run the ball 500-550 times annually until they get their QB problems sorted out - which I don't expect to happen for either team in 2010.
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Donnybrook
Footballguy
It is going to interesting to see how big of jump San Diego makes in their rushing stats with the addition of Ryan Mathews. Even if he proves to be a great back, I am not as optomistic as the FanEx team that drafted him at 8.
I was trying to think back to a team that improved dramatically from one year to the next. I remember being surprised by the improvement Carolina made from their pitiful 2007, when they scored only 7 rushing TDs, to 2008, DeAnglo Williams breakout year. They went from 13th to 3rd in the league in rushing. But it is debatable how many extra yards you can you attribute to the change at RB and how much you can attribute to having a healthy Oline and Jake Delhomme.
Other than replacinging LT with Mathews, SD offense hasn't changed much. I don't see the dramatic swing in rushing yards that some are predicting.
I was trying to think back to a team that improved dramatically from one year to the next. I remember being surprised by the improvement Carolina made from their pitiful 2007, when they scored only 7 rushing TDs, to 2008, DeAnglo Williams breakout year. They went from 13th to 3rd in the league in rushing. But it is debatable how many extra yards you can you attribute to the change at RB and how much you can attribute to having a healthy Oline and Jake Delhomme.
Other than replacinging LT with Mathews, SD offense hasn't changed much. I don't see the dramatic swing in rushing yards that some are predicting.
