No separation at the top of RB or WR dynasty rankings in my opinion (1 Viewer)

[bigmiiiiike]

This is moreso a general observation that I had when I was fielding some trade offers in a dynasty ppr league: all of the top 10 or so guys at rb and wr are pretty much the same. I'm trying to improve my team by getting a stud, and I have plenty of pieces that I wouldn't mind packaging for the right player, but I can't bring myself to go after any of the top ranked guys because I feel they're not really that much better than the guys I'd be giving up. ESPECIALLY in the dynasty context, where the best WRs IMO are Roddy and AJ, but I don't want to mortgage the farm for a WR who is going to be 30+ next year.

Where is the separation at the top with VBD? Or am I the only one who doesn't see any major differences between Foster, CJ3, Ray Rice, Charles, Mendenhall, MJD, Peterson, McCoy, Forte, and Hillis? Same with WRs: AJ, Roddy, Calvin, Wayne, Desean, Nicks, VJax, Jennings, Miles Austin, Wallace, Fitz, Bowe, and Marshall. Obviously some of these guys are a little better than others, but as a general policy, I think it is a bad move for a team that is a contender to trade multiple pieces that include one of these guys to get a guy slightly higher on the list (i.e., Austin + something for Roddy; or McCoy + something for AP). Thoughts?

 

[mikel2014]

I agree for the most part but would not include Forte/Hillis and Austin/Marshall in your listings. Those guys are a clear step down from the top tier IMO.

 

[loose circuits]

I have Nicks & Calvin ahead of the pack because they have just as much talent as the rest and are much younger. Wayne isn't anywhere close since he's 33 and showing signs of decline

Having said all that, I agree with your premise. I've been burnt before going for the upgrade so I am much more reluctant to do it now

 

[D.J.]

I agree with your theory completely. I would rather have extra picks in the 2nd-5th of a dynasty startup then have a 1st. The guys at the top tend to not be that much better then the later guys. Is rather have multiple of the "2nd tier" guys than 1 "1st tier" guy

 

[Mario Kart]

I have Nicks & Calvin ahead of the pack because they have just as much talent as the rest and are much younger. Wayne isn't anywhere close since he's 33 and showing signs of declineHaving said all that, I agree with your premise. I've been burnt before going for the upgrade so I am much more reluctant to do it now

When has Wayne shown signs of decline? Please explain. Thanks.

 

[Concept Coop]

I agree with your theory completely. I would rather have extra picks in the 2nd-5th of a dynasty startup then have a 1st. The guys at the top tend to not be that much better then the later guys. Is rather have multiple of the "2nd tier" guys than 1 "1st tier" guy

I don't think this is good practice and I don't think this is what the OP meant. I don't see teams win leagues without "1st tier" players. I think the OP is advocating trading down towards the end of the 1st tier, which makes sense. The only problem is that, in my startups, this is common knowledge and owners are not going to sell the farm to move up from 7-8 to 1-3.The best way to take advantage of this, in my opinion, is to trade up into the late 1st, early 2nd, and target the end of tier 1. Identify where the tier ends for you and snipe a 2nd workhorse. Because, as small as the gap between a top 5 player and top 10 player seems this year, it is still bigger than the gap between 2nd and 3rd tier players, or any tier gap the rest of the way.

 

[DexterDew]

I have Nicks & Calvin ahead of the pack because they have just as much talent as the rest and are much younger. Wayne isn't anywhere close since he's 33 and showing signs of declineHaving said all that, I agree with your premise. I've been burnt before going for the upgrade so I am much more reluctant to do it now

When has Wayne shown signs of decline? Please explain. Thanks.

He will be 33 in November, and there is not much of a track record for WRs performing at a high level at that age.The last four games in 2010, he had 18 catches for 143 yards and 1 TD. Is it a harbinger for things to come? No way to tell.If he can produce like Marvin at age 33 and 34: great! But IMHO Marvin is a much better WR and has always been double digits for TDs and Wayne is more hit and miss in terms of TD production.I think he will be fine for another year, maybe two.

 

[bigmiiiiike]

I agree with your theory completely. I would rather have extra picks in the 2nd-5th of a dynasty startup then have a 1st. The guys at the top tend to not be that much better then the later guys. Is rather have multiple of the "2nd tier" guys than 1 "1st tier" guy

I don't think this is good practice and I don't think this is what the OP meant. I don't see teams win leagues without "1st tier" players. I think the OP is advocating trading down towards the end of the 1st tier, which makes sense. The only problem is that, in my startups, this is common knowledge and owners are not going to sell the farm to move up from 7-8 to 1-3.The best way to take advantage of this, in my opinion, is to trade up into the late 1st, early 2nd, and target the end of tier 1. Identify where the tier ends for you and snipe a 2nd workhorse. Because, as small as the gap between a top 5 player and top 10 player seems this year, it is still bigger than the gap between 2nd and 3rd tier players, or any tier gap the rest of the way.

I actually posted this with the mindset that it takes "1st tier" guys to win in fantasy football, and I'd like to make trades to improve to as many "1st tier" guys as possible. This is what I've done in the past if I have a dynasty team that is a contender and would like to get it over the hump, trade a few pieces for a superstud like Faulk or LT in their primes. However, this year, it just seems like there is no value at all in doing this, as the "1st tier" is so large with such little separation. I was intentionally trying to not make it team specific or "should I do this trade?" to keep it in the shark pool, but to give more background on my thought process, I was specifically trying to improve the team in my signature.

 

[loose circuits]

I have Nicks & Calvin ahead of the pack because they have just as much talent as the rest and are much younger. Wayne isn't anywhere close since he's 33 and showing signs of declineHaving said all that, I agree with your premise. I've been burnt before going for the upgrade so I am much more reluctant to do it now

When has Wayne shown signs of decline? Please explain. Thanks.

worst season he's had in production per targetworst season he's had in yards per catchTD's were down despite career high in targetsthe only reason he was still near the top last year was because of the ridiculous number of targets mainly due to injury to other members of the Colts and lack of a run game. If you think he's going to see 170+ balls his way again feel free to buy, but the wheels are going to fall off sooner than later. He's also in a contract year and I could see the Colts letting him walk while they try to get younger at the position. How much money did they dump at the end of Marvin's career?

 

[bengalbuck]

I agree with your theory completely. I would rather have extra picks in the 2nd-5th of a dynasty startup then have a 1st. The guys at the top tend to not be that much better then the later guys. Is rather have multiple of the "2nd tier" guys than 1 "1st tier" guy

I don't think this is good practice and I don't think this is what the OP meant. I don't see teams win leagues without "1st tier" players. I think the OP is advocating trading down towards the end of the 1st tier, which makes sense. The only problem is that, in my startups, this is common knowledge and owners are not going to sell the farm to move up from 7-8 to 1-3.The best way to take advantage of this, in my opinion, is to trade up into the late 1st, early 2nd, and target the end of tier 1. Identify where the tier ends for you and snipe a 2nd workhorse. Because, as small as the gap between a top 5 player and top 10 player seems this year, it is still bigger than the gap between 2nd and 3rd tier players, or any tier gap the rest of the way.

I actually posted this with the mindset that it takes "1st tier" guys to win in fantasy football, and I'd like to make trades to improve to as many "1st tier" guys as possible. This is what I've done in the past if I have a dynasty team that is a contender and would like to get it over the hump, trade a few pieces for a superstud like Faulk or LT in their primes. However, this year, it just seems like there is no value at all in doing this, as the "1st tier" is so large with such little separation. I was intentionally trying to not make it team specific or "should I do this trade?" to keep it in the shark pool, but to give more background on my thought process, I was specifically trying to improve the team in my signature.

I have a startup dynasty with a draft starting this week and I think this is very true. I have a very, very tough time trying to distinguish between the top 7-8 running backs (AP, Foster, CJ, McCoy, MJD, Charles, Rice, McFadden?). They're all 26 or younger. All of them are generally 40+ catch guys. None of them have serious threats of a RBBC...I'm sitting at the end of the 1st round and could tradeup into the top 5 very cheaply, but don't see the point of it. There's just not much separation in the top RBs. There's not even a real clear order as it really comes down to personal preference.With WRs, I do see some separation at the top primarily due to age (Calvin and Nicks are so much younger than Roddy/AJ). However, even that is somewhat diminished by the fact that in PPR Roddy and AJ are likely to catch 15-20 more balls. And the 5th, 6th, etc. guys (Fitz, Jennings, etc.) are right there too. When setting my personal board, I see a top tier that goes to 12-15. Then just a slight dropoff to the next tier of 5 or 6 guys.Maybe someone emerges as a truly dominant fantasy player over the long term, but it seems like you're just as likely to find that guy at 10 as you are at 1 or 2...

 

[FUBAR]

Imo, more so this year thsn in the past, the key to winning even in dynasty won't be acquiring known studs before the season as much as hitting on a few guys who become tier one. Guys like Stewart, maclin, freeman, graham, etc will be the key. So, if you feel confident, I'd trade a guy like Peterson for two guys you think will move up.

 

[BuckeyeChaos]

I'm torn. I agree to a point with the OP premise that tiers are flattening but I still think that some seperate out.

The RBBC trend is what I feel is driving the flatening of the RB tier but I still feel guys like AP, Foster, Charles, CJ and McCoy are above the rest. MJD would be included but his knee worries me a bit and I need further proof that he is ok. All the others you mentioned are clearly in a lower tier to me.

The WRs are less flattened in my opinion. Age on Roddy White and AJ does not scare me as they are in great shape and show no signs of slowing down. They also have great QB situations. I guess guys like Roddy, AJ, megatron, Nicks stand out as stud tier.

I would certainly trade Mendenhall + something to get one of the guys I mentioned in the top tier. I would certainly trade Bowe,Marshall, DeShawn, Maclin etc..+ something for the top tier guys I mention.

The days of getting a Marshall Faulk to carry you to a championship (ahh I remember those years well) are probably over but getting a combo of the top guys at the expense of several next level guys can still work I think.

 

[BuckeyeChaos]

Example:

I think Charles is a big enough upgrade for me that I moved Moreno and the #1 rookie pick ( I assume Ingram). Even though both guys might be studly I don't think they will be stuuuuuudly like Charles.

 

[bengalbuck]

Example:

I think Charles is a big enough upgrade for me that I moved Moreno and the #1 rookie pick ( I assume Ingram). Even though both guys might be studly I don't think they will be stuuuuuudly like Charles.

I agree with you that the top tier is a little bit separate from lower tiers. I just think there's very little separation within that top tier.I'll give you a quick example. I was in a startup dynasty league last year. The owner with the first pick was able to trade his 1st and 2nd pick to another owner for his 1st, 2nd and 5th rounder. The perceived value of CJ was so high that someone picking lower in the 1st had to switch 2nd rounders and throw in another pretty early pick just to move up. It would have cost an arm and a leg to move up into the top of the 1st to grab CJ, AP or Ray Rice.

It's the exact opposite in my dynasty startup this year. Owners at the top of the draft are all trying to trade down. Any of them would gladly take a swap of 2nd rounders just to move down but there are no takers. In fact, one owner drafting high (3rd) gave up his 1st, 2nd and a 5th just to swap 1st and 2nds with an owner picking later. (Bad trade in my opinion, but just shows how little value those top picks have compared to later 1st rounders.)

 

[BuckeyeChaos]

Example:

I think Charles is a big enough upgrade for me that I moved Moreno and the #1 rookie pick ( I assume Ingram). Even though both guys might be studly I don't think they will be stuuuuuudly like Charles.

I agree with you that the top tier is a little bit separate from lower tiers. I just think there's very little separation within that top tier.I'll give you a quick example. I was in a startup dynasty league last year. The owner with the first pick was able to trade his 1st and 2nd pick to another owner for his 1st, 2nd and 5th rounder. The perceived value of CJ was so high that someone picking lower in the 1st had to switch 2nd rounders and throw in another pretty early pick just to move up. It would have cost an arm and a leg to move up into the top of the 1st to grab CJ, AP or Ray Rice.

It's the exact opposite in my dynasty startup this year. Owners at the top of the draft are all trying to trade down. Any of them would gladly take a swap of 2nd rounders just to move down but there are no takers. In fact, one owner drafting high (3rd) gave up his 1st, 2nd and a 5th just to swap 1st and 2nds with an owner picking later. (Bad trade in my opinion, but just shows how little value those top picks have compared to later 1st rounders.)

I can't argue with this at all. It falls under the Marshal Faulk part of my post.

 

[bengalbuck]

Example:

I think Charles is a big enough upgrade for me that I moved Moreno and the #1 rookie pick ( I assume Ingram). Even though both guys might be studly I don't think they will be stuuuuuudly like Charles.

I agree with you that the top tier is a little bit separate from lower tiers. I just think there's very little separation within that top tier.I'll give you a quick example. I was in a startup dynasty league last year. The owner with the first pick was able to trade his 1st and 2nd pick to another owner for his 1st, 2nd and 5th rounder. The perceived value of CJ was so high that someone picking lower in the 1st had to switch 2nd rounders and throw in another pretty early pick just to move up. It would have cost an arm and a leg to move up into the top of the 1st to grab CJ, AP or Ray Rice.

It's the exact opposite in my dynasty startup this year. Owners at the top of the draft are all trying to trade down. Any of them would gladly take a swap of 2nd rounders just to move down but there are no takers. In fact, one owner drafting high (3rd) gave up his 1st, 2nd and a 5th just to swap 1st and 2nds with an owner picking later. (Bad trade in my opinion, but just shows how little value those top picks have compared to later 1st rounders.)

I can't argue with this at all. It falls under the Marshal Faulk part of my post.

Yeah, I wasn't disagreeing with you. The days of Faulk or even the prime years of Priest Holmes or Tomlison are past.I guess my general point is that the top tier that has always existed seems bigger than normal this year. Bigger than last year even. Last year it was probably 4 guys (CJ, AP, MJD, Rice) and there was even some perceived separation at the very top after CJ's huge 2009. This year the top tier is 6-9 RBs and there is absolutely no separation at the #1 as there isn't even a consensus as to who the #1 is.

Unlike last year, there is no advantage to drafting high in the 1st round. In fact in snake drafts, the real value this year seems to be in drafting late.

 

[Peeps Inc.]

I agree for the most part but would not include Forte/Hillis and Austin/Marshall in your listings. Those guys are a clear step down from the top tier IMO.

don't forget Vjax the guy has done nothing in his career to be classified as tier one, the most catches he's ever had was only 69

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

there is absolutely no separation at the #1 as there isn't even a consensus as to who the #1 is.

the "consensus" #1 is almost always wrong anyway

 

[Clifford]

This is moreso a general observation that I had when I was fielding some trade offers in a dynasty ppr league: all of the top 10 or so guys at rb and wr are pretty much the same. I'm trying to improve my team by getting a stud, and I have plenty of pieces that I wouldn't mind packaging for the right player, but I can't bring myself to go after any of the top ranked guys because I feel they're not really that much better than the guys I'd be giving up. ESPECIALLY in the dynasty context, where the best WRs IMO are Roddy and AJ, but I don't want to mortgage the farm for a WR who is going to be 30+ next year. Where is the separation at the top with VBD? Or am I the only one who doesn't see any major differences between Foster, CJ3, Ray Rice, Charles, Mendenhall, MJD, Peterson, McCoy, Forte, and Hillis? Same with WRs: AJ, Roddy, Calvin, Wayne, Desean, Nicks, VJax, Jennings, Miles Austin, Wallace, Fitz, Bowe, and Marshall. Obviously some of these guys are a little better than others, but as a general policy, I think it is a bad move for a team that is a contender to trade multiple pieces that include one of these guys to get a guy slightly higher on the list (i.e., Austin + something for Roddy; or McCoy + something for AP). Thoughts?

You lost me at McCoy, Forte and Hillis at RB, and I think MJD belongs with them rather than the others.WRs are more similar but there's no way at this point you can say VJax ranks next to Roddy.What's interesting to me is that prior to 2010 Foster was a fifth round pick and Wallace was barely on the radar. Bowe and Marshall came with serious question marks. Jury still out on Fitz.In dynasty you shouldn't look to acquire last year's top players. You should look to move last year's top players for next years studs.

 

[BuckeyeChaos]

This is moreso a general observation that I had when I was fielding some trade offers in a dynasty ppr league: all of the top 10 or so guys at rb and wr are pretty much the same. I'm trying to improve my team by getting a stud, and I have plenty of pieces that I wouldn't mind packaging for the right player, but I can't bring myself to go after any of the top ranked guys because I feel they're not really that much better than the guys I'd be giving up. ESPECIALLY in the dynasty context, where the best WRs IMO are Roddy and AJ, but I don't want to mortgage the farm for a WR who is going to be 30+ next year.

Where is the separation at the top with VBD? Or am I the only one who doesn't see any major differences between Foster, CJ3, Ray Rice, Charles, Mendenhall, MJD, Peterson, McCoy, Forte, and Hillis? Same with WRs: AJ, Roddy, Calvin, Wayne, Desean, Nicks, VJax, Jennings, Miles Austin, Wallace, Fitz, Bowe, and Marshall. Obviously some of these guys are a little better than others, but as a general policy, I think it is a bad move for a team that is a contender to trade multiple pieces that include one of these guys to get a guy slightly higher on the list (i.e., Austin + something for Roddy; or McCoy + something for AP). Thoughts?

You lost me at McCoy, Forte and Hillis at RB, and I think MJD belongs with them rather than the others.WRs are more similar but there's no way at this point you can say VJax ranks next to Roddy.

What's interesting to me is that prior to 2010 Foster was a fifth round pick and Wallace was barely on the radar. Bowe and Marshall came with serious question marks. Jury still out on Fitz.

In dynasty you shouldn't look to acquire last year's top players. You should look to move last year's top players for next years studs.

You figure out how to do that and you will have something.