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Norton's Week 7 DB Projections (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Eph
- Start date
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
I'll send this to Norton's attention, but I'm going to steal his thunder and channel his reply in the meantime. 
Tyvon Branch leads all defensive backs in tackles and has a good matchup. I don't know how my weekly projections would shake out, but I'd have a hard time keeping him out of the top five without a strong reason in any given week in a confidence rank listing.
Adrian Wilson is struggling, but it's extremely hard to ignore this trend. I'm not as confident that he'll be able to take advantage of the trend to the extent other safeties might, but the list of safeties who have produced big numbers against the Giants isn't exactly a who's who of NFL talent. Competition for tackles among Dansby, Hayes and Rolle may be steep as usual, but a five solo expectation isn't out of the question for him.
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Tyvon Branch leads all defensive backs in tackles and has a good matchup. I don't know how my weekly projections would shake out, but I'd have a hard time keeping him out of the top five without a strong reason in any given week in a confidence rank listing.
Adrian Wilson is struggling, but it's extremely hard to ignore this trend. I'm not as confident that he'll be able to take advantage of the trend to the extent other safeties might, but the list of safeties who have produced big numbers against the Giants isn't exactly a who's who of NFL talent. Competition for tackles among Dansby, Hayes and Rolle may be steep as usual, but a five solo expectation isn't out of the question for him.
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Thank you Jene, I couldn't have put it better myself but I'll add this. Projections are all about two things, dependability of a player (Branch) and match up (Wilson). You don't downgrade a player like Branch in a situation like that just because he doesn't lead the league in tackles for one week and I'm not going to change his numbers just for the sake of changing his numbers, or so they aren't the same as the previous weeks. The Eagles have been a good match up for safeties and none of us dreamed that game would go down as it did. The Jets are also a good match up so my expectations of Branch haven't changed. Regardless of his lacking box score production in general, Wilson is still an outstanding safety. Not to mention that he's starting to come alive in the big play columns. As Jene mentioned, I didn't project him with particularly big tackle numbers. I do however, believe he could easily exceed the 5 solos projected if the Giants come out fired up the way I expect them too after last weeks drubbing. Wilson is one of the best blitzing safeties that has ever played the game. If you want to see why I like Wilson so much this week just take a look at our match up tool http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/i...7&year=2009
Look at what safeties have done against the Giants this year. Harper 4-1-1, Branch 7-3 PD, Brown 6-3-1, Allen 9-1, Hamlin 6-2, Landry 8-0 PD... Wilson won't be in my top 10 all year but there is a real good reason he's there this week
Great Justini
Footballguy
ummmm....what?and lol on adrian wilson --- he's the biggest mancrush on here.
he'll probably still be top 5 a year after he retires.
Yeah, I didn't follow that trend link either. Seemed like a Demeco justification thread.Drinen's "Custom Top 250" is out for this week (with Rest of Year ratings), but it looks to be incomplete. He's got Wilson at DB11 moving forward, though. Are his numbers based on yours, John. Or, does he do his own analysis? (And, can you please ask him to complete the IDP ratings?)
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
I don't think the two statements above are illogical. The matchup trend is very strong, Wilson's performance trends temper the confidence and enthusiasm.Hard to deny that we've been high on Wilson, myself included (note the top line in my sig
), but it's easy to be wooed by Wilson's upside. Despite the disappointing trend since mid-2007, you're still looking at a player who has had five or more solos in 13 games over the past three seasons (including playoffs) and twice this year. I've noted that he's looked slower this year than last and continue to note that the competition for tackles is a concern, but the trend noted in our links is flashing neon. If you're looking at a host of other DB2 options this week like Mike Brown, Chris Harris, Bernard Pollard and Chris Harris, it's hard not to like Wilson's upside this week.
TheBottomLine
Footballguy
while I see where you're coming from with the Adrian Wilson talk, I just personally won't start him until he can prove he's worth starting. I understand, though, that your projections are based on the matchup rather than what the's been doin.. and you might very well be correct. I'd just be much more satisfied with leaving him on my bench and seeing him actually put up numbers this week rather than buying the hype, only for him to let me down yet again. We'll see though.... I might give him the nod but I am extremely deep at DB (Rhodes, C.Harris, M.Griffin, T.Jackson, M.Lewis) and we only start 2.
Wilson broke my heart so my mancrush has pretty much ended. I'm not as stubborn as Jene, at least not on this particular guyGreat Justini said:
I gave him the benefit of the doubt heading into this season and projected him to rebound, but I'm no longer holding out much hope that he will ever be a top 10 guy again. That said, I just can't ignore the match up this week. Unfortunately projections don't allow consideration for how much confidence we have in a guy. Even though I projected him high, I personally wouldn't start him over other solid, consistent and dependable options. But then I'm not one to gamble consistency for upside.
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the link you provided goes to a thread on DeMeco Ryans though. I think that's the source of the confusion here.Jene Bramel said:
DeadhorseGM
Footballguy
I'm going off a bit from the current topic, but I'm puzzled by Quintin Mikell's ranking not only this week but the past several weeks. Mikell has been OK so far this season, but throw out week 2 and he's been below average, currently ranked #57 amongst DB's in my league. He is consistently ranked in the top 10 every week and even higher in the current rankings. I've considering dropping him for Brandon McGowan.
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
Stupid clipboard. 
Yup - good call on AWilson. You clearly got that one right.I see you have him high again this week, as well as Branch, Rhodes, and Gibril Wilson.Can you please comment on these picks for this week, as well as Rest of Year outlook?A comparison between Arizona's Bryant McFaddden and AWilson, would also be appreciated (this week and long term). You appear to be giving McFadden a slight advantage this week.Thanks again.EphGuess I haven't flipped my lid completely yet
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Ozymandias
Footballguy
The biggest mancrush that Norton has is Rhodes.
Of course, even a blind squirrel.... But he ranks #25 in solo tackles amongst DB's. At the beginning of the season Norton had him #2 for the year.
Of course, even a blind squirrel.... But he ranks #25 in solo tackles amongst DB's. At the beginning of the season Norton had him #2 for the year.
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Ozymandias
Footballguy
Norton was pimping Kerry Rhodes again last week. Had him at #2 amongst DB's.Result? 1 tackle for Rhodes. Other than that, NADA.Maybe he has pictures of Norton in a compromising situation?
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