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Norwood - Frank Gore candidate for 2007 (1 Viewer)

C

cscmtp

Footballguy
I'm a little surprised there hasn't been more talk about J. Norwood. Last year he had just under 100 carries for 633 yards. (Give him 300 carries and you're talking 1900 yards!) He consistently broke long runs, and seemed faster than anyone else on the field at times. I love Dunn, total class act, but he is 32 years old and just had his lowest YPC in 5 years. With a new coaching staff on the way, does anyone else see Norwood getting the chance to start and possibly having a "Frank Gore" type of year in 2007? Where do you guys rank him in dynasty leagues?

I think he's going to be a monster. Just a matter of this year vs next year to me...

Your thoughts?

 
I like Norwood as a big play guy but I don't think he will be a good every down back. I could really see the new regime bringing in a back that they like to run the system. Don't be surprised is Michael Bush is a Falcon if he makes it to the 2nd round. Atl again would have it's thunder and lightening.

 
cscmtp said:
I'm a little surprised there hasn't been more talk about J. Norwood. Last year he had just under 100 carries for 633 yards. (Give him 300 carries and you're talking 1900 yards!) He consistently broke long runs, and seemed faster than anyone else on the field at times. I love Dunn, total class act, but he is 32 years old and just had his lowest YPC in 5 years. With a new coaching staff on the way, does anyone else see Norwood getting the chance to start and possibly having a "Frank Gore" type of year in 2007? Where do you guys rank him in dynasty leagues? I think he's going to be a monster. Just a matter of this year vs next year to me...Your thoughts?
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I think Petrino will give Norwood a chance to start but I say Dunn still ends up being the starter and gets the majority of the carries as long as lomg as he is healthy. Norwood will get more carries this year and maybe become the starter next year if he has a good season like he did this past year with minimal carries. I would say this year Dunn/Norwwod goes 60-40 in favor of Dunn. He is going to be good, just needs to be given a chance and I would say that comes in 2008.
 
The problem for Dunn is that he is entering the last year of his contract and should have an unmanagable cap number.

If the following information is accurate, he is carrying a $3.25 million base salary but is due a $4.35 million roster bonus. Combined with his prorated signing bonus and implementation of the 30% rule (mandating how contract dollars are distributed), that makes his cap hit for 2007 a staggering $10.545.

There is no way the Falcons will keep Dunn at that price unless he reworks his contract. THis definietly is something to watch heading into the new NFL season.

LINK

Falcons signed Dunn to a six-year contract in March 2002. The contract was worth $28.85 million and included a $6.5 million signing bonus. The sixth year (2007) is an option year. Dunn's base salaries will be as follows: $600,000 (2002); $2 million (2003); $2.4 million (2004); $3 million (2005); $3.5 million (2006); and $4 million (2007). He will receive a $500,000 roster bonus in 2004, and receive $1 million in roster bonuses both in 2005 and 2006. He will also have a $4.35 million roster bonus in 2007, which is probably what the Falcons will need to pay in order to exercise the option. Dunn's cap hits will about $1.683 million (2002); $3.083 million (2003); $3.983 million (2004); $5.083 million (2005); $5.583 milion (2006); and $9.433 million (2007) ... Dunn restructured his contract in March 2005, reducing his base salaries in 2005 and 2006 to $665,000 and $2.5 million, respectively. The difference of $3.335 million will be guaranteed and prorated over the remaining three years of his contract as a signing bonus. Due to the "30-percent rule" based on salary acceleration into uncapped seasons, Dunn will receive $2.825 million in extra payments in 2006. That makes his new cap figures: $3.86 million (2005); $8.52 million (2006); and $10.545 million (2007).
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EDIT TO ADD: That same site has a salary cap page and they list Dunn's cap hit as $9.43 million or about $1.1 million cheaper than I originally cited. THe net result is still the same--that is a monster of a number for Dunn. LINK
 
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Had they not fired their coach and brought in Petrino I think most would agree. Now it's very hard to say what his situation is going to end up being. I think he's a great buy low candidate to roll the dice on if you can get him cheap but there's some risk there.

I also think most owners took him high in the rookie draft last year (saw him go as high as 6 last year) and likely won't part with him yet. If I owned him I would probably be taking a wait and see approach.

 
Blackjacks said:
I like Norwood as a big play guy but I don't think he will be a good every down back. I could really see the new regime bringing in a back that they like to run the system. Don't be surprised is Michael Bush is a Falcon if he makes it to the 2nd round. Atl again would have it's thunder and lightening.
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Why do I keep seeing this? There is no way in hell Atlanta spends a 2nd rounder for a RB when they have Dunn and Norwood. When did Spurrier come back to the NFL? Norwood has what it takes to be an everydown back. As long as Dunn is still around he will not be the every down back.
 
SproutDaddy said:
Blackjacks said:
I like Norwood as a big play guy but I don't think he will be a good every down back. I could really see the new regime bringing in a back that they like to run the system. Don't be surprised is Michael Bush is a Falcon if he makes it to the 2nd round. Atl again would have it's thunder and lightening.
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Why do I keep seeing this? There is no way in hell Atlanta spends a 2nd rounder for a RB when they have Dunn and Norwood. When did Spurrier come back to the NFL? Norwood has what it takes to be an everydown back. As long as Dunn is still around he will not be the every down back.
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I hope you are right but those chicken legs he has scares the sh#t out of me.
 
SproutDaddy said:
Blackjacks said:
I like Norwood as a big play guy but I don't think he will be a good every down back. I could really see the new regime bringing in a back that they like to run the system. Don't be surprised is Michael Bush is a Falcon if he makes it to the 2nd round. Atl again would have it's thunder and lightening.
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Why do I keep seeing this? There is no way in hell Atlanta spends a 2nd rounder for a RB when they have Dunn and Norwood. When did Spurrier come back to the NFL? Norwood has what it takes to be an everydown back. As long as Dunn is still around he will not be the every down back.
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:lmao: From what I've seen so far, Norwood is vastly undervalued. I agree that Petrino's hiring is reason for pause, and that he may not *look* the part of an every-down back with his slight build, but it's not like he's small, and he's a better inside runner than he has been given credit for. I am certainly taking a wait and see approach with him because of Petrino, but if they give him a bump in carries next season, I think he'll take off in a big way. Every time I've seen him run he's looked special to me, and he has the all-around skills to pay off in ppr leagues.
 
I just think it is too early to give a good guess. After we see who they release, What FAs they sign and who they draft; we will have a better idea of the new coaches opinion of him. So for now, I'm stay away from him in the early rounds. You can not aford to blow an early round pick in dynasty leagues.

 
I just watched this video of Norwood highlights from this past year:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kwbA4c2vdvg

Does he remind any one else of former Viking Robert Smith? Smith was taller, but had a similar weight ratio / "thickness" and had great break away speed. Dunno...that's just what popped into my head while I was watching.

As for Norwood's future...I think with a new coaching regime in it's way too early to tell. But I think if a) they give him a chance rather than automatically bringing in "their guy" and b) the offense they run suits his skills, he'll end up as a very good NFL and fantasy back.

 
Exile said:
I just watched this video of Norwood highlights from this past year:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kwbA4c2vdvg

Does he remind any one else of former Viking Robert Smith? Smith was taller, but had a similar weight ratio / "thickness" and had great break away speed. Dunno...that's just what popped into my head while I was watching.

As for Norwood's future...I think with a new coaching regime in it's way too early to tell. But I think if a) they give him a chance rather than automatically bringing in "their guy" and b) the offense they run suits his skills, he'll end up as a very good NFL and fantasy back.
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I couldn't think of who it was, but you are correct! Robert Smith is a great comparison for Norwood.
 
SproutDaddy said:
Don Quixote said:
Atlanta let go Alex Gibbs. Going from zone blocking to L'ville-style power running game. I'd be selling Norwood.
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And how do we know exactly they're going to the power running game?
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Alex Gibbs, the former offensive line coach/consultant who implemented a zone-blocking scheme that contributed to the Falcons leading the NFL in rushing the past three seasons, will not be back with the team.

Though coach Bobby Petrino has overhauled the coaching staff since being hired Jan. 8, Gibbs had been listed as an offensive line consultant, his title the past two seasons. The Falcons confirmed Wednesday that Gibbs, who came to Atlanta in 2004 with then-coach Jim Mora as the offensive line coach, was not retained.

Mike Summers, who was on Petrino's staff at Louisville, was hired as the offensive line coach.

Gibbs' departure signals a likely change in blocking philosophy from the zone/cut-blocking scheme to more of a traditional power game. Petrino has previously based his offense around a physical running game.



The Falcons also will begin the transition to bigger, more physical offensive linemen from the sleeker, smaller linemen that fit better into Gibbs' scheme, Petrino has said in interviews since being hired.
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article
 
Exile said:
I just watched this video of Norwood highlights from this past year:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kwbA4c2vdvg

Does he remind any one else of former Viking Robert Smith? Smith was taller, but had a similar weight ratio / "thickness" and had great break away speed. Dunno...that's just what popped into my head while I was watching.

As for Norwood's future...I think with a new coaching regime in it's way too early to tell. But I think if a) they give him a chance rather than automatically bringing in "their guy" and b) the offense they run suits his skills, he'll end up as a very good NFL and fantasy back.
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I never saw Robert Smith take on tacklers like Norwood does. Norwood seems like a tougher runner. I'm still not sure why he was so ineffective in goal line situations last year, but he was able to get some tough short yardage first downs. He runs way harder than Smith ever did IMO, and has to have the best burst of any RB in the NFL right now, including Bush.The injuries are worrisome, but they could of been flukes. We'll know next year if he can handle more work.

 
Huge Falcons fan (yes I admit it).

I sold Norwood/Dunn in one league.

Keeping Norwood in my other league where I don't have Dunn.

I don't think Dunn will be back (injury/salary).

I also don't think Atlanta has a 2nd round pick in the draft.

Can anyone confirm?

ATL won't take Bush in the 1st (likely DB help).

Bush probably won't slip by Baltimore in the 2nd.

Some mock drafts showing these both happening.

 
I think Norwood has the potential but if I had to put money on it, I think he will end up with injury problems and never fulfill his potential (or your team's potential).

 
silvergold said:
I think Norwood has the potential but if I had to put money on it, I think he will end up with injury problems and never fulfill his potential (or your team's potential).
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Sounds just like Gore. I think the use of the word "candidate" is fitting.

He could be lights out if everything falls into place.

 
It does sound like Gore, but for every case where a guy like Gore works out there are a 100 that don't...If there is one theory I usually stand by in FF is try and pick guys (especially in your top picks) that have a history of making it through the season. Norwood has a lot of hype this year and I think people are going to go a little crazy for him...if he falls he could be a great pick however.

 
What impressed me most in those highlights was how he dragged people along and moved the pile to get tough extra yards. For a guy with chicken legs he doesn't go down easy.

 
Verbal Kint said:
What impressed me most in those highlights was how he dragged people along and moved the pile to get tough extra yards. For a guy with chicken legs he doesn't go down easy.
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I was thinking the same thing. I'm not questioning his toughness it's just that one low shot that i dont think he'll be able to recoup from. JMO
 
hitman2 said:
I like Norwood, but I am scared as hell of keeping him in a dynasty.
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You keep all players in dynasty so not really scared of keeping him. Selling the farm for him, maybe. In a keeper league, where you keep a couple players, unless you have junk, you let him go and look for him mid rounds. Of course that changes as news comes around this offseason, if Dunn is let go and so forth...
 
How about a comparison to FWP? Parker looked skinny enough to be a workload question and while he did add some weight last season, I think he surprised most people by being an every down player. Both have similar speed/vision/moves (though I think Norwood has even more cutting ability) and overall rushing/receiving abilities. To me what makes Norwood potentially special is the combination of vision and burst; plus, he put some moves on guys last season that were just silly.

He missed time last season due to the same knee injury so I don't know what it's fair to tag him an injury risk. I think if he had a thicker build this would be ignored (Maroney missed time last season, too, but it's never mentioned). Norwood never missed a game at MS State due to injury and he was all they had on offense there.

 
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Since we are assuming that Norwood is not the back that Atlanta wants now, let's play pretend.

Who is the back-to-be in Atlanta? If they get said back, where could Atlanta trade Norwood? Houston and GB use the zone system, don't they? Would either pony up a second rounder for him?

 
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