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*** Number 2 Draft Pick Strategy *** (1 Viewer)

The Psychologist said:
I just finished drafting in a 12 team non ppr league from the number two and came away with this:1. ADP2. Andre Johnson3. TJ Houshmanzadeh4. Kellen Winslow5. Jonathan Stewart6. Kevin Smith7. Lee Evans8. Vikings D9. Ahmad Bradshaw10. Marc Bulger11. Jake Delhomme12. Reggie Brown13. Vincent Jackson14. Steve Slaton15. Donald Lee16. Matt PraterI'm pretty happy with my draft considering I didn't draft a second running back till round 5. It was a very RB top-heavy first 2 or 3 rounds, so I didn't really feel there was good value to draft a RB in rounds 2-4. When Stewart fell to 5 and Smith was still there at 6, I couldn't have been more pleased. Hopefully, someone will break through via the waiver wires, but overall, I'm pleased with my draft.
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Good job. I'd like this draft a lot more if I saw Chester Taylor in there. Where did he go?
 
AtomicDogg97 said:
I just think going RB-WR-WR is a big risk because there may not be a decent RB left when you get to 4.11.Guys like Thomas Jones, Edgerrin james, etc will probably all be gone by then. You might be stuck with someone like Lendale White or Selvin Young.
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Looks to me like there is a fall off around the 2-3 pick if you miss Grant the Grant/Jones-Drew/Bush tier. So,it seems like there could be a situation fro RB-WR-WR. I think there is a good chance you could still get Edge there; not sure about Jones since Favremania hit. Have you drafted yet?
 
No we have not drafted yet. August 30th. How about rb-wr-rb?

How does this shake out:

adp

bush

top WR maybe Welker?

How about QB? And then WRs in 4,5,6, rounds?

 
wolfeman said:
No we have not drafted yet. August 30th. How about rb-wr-rb? How does this shake out:adpbushtop WR maybe Welker? How about QB? And then WRs in 4,5,6, rounds?
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Yes, in thinking about it nore, and considering you go a long time between picks at this spot, i think it is rb-wr -rb (or rb-rb-wr depending on who is there).,I don't think I'd wait until round 7 for RB3. Who's there? DeAngelo, Julius, Fred tier?
 
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So I was thinking maybe RB2 in the second rd. QB in the 3rd. Then bang out some young WRs. Holmes.Calvin Johnson,Bowe,maybe a Marshall in RDs 4-6...

 
wolfeman said:
So I was thinking maybe RB2 in the second rd. QB in the 3rd. Then bang out some young WRs. Holmes.Calvin Johnson,Bowe,maybe a Marshall in RDs 4-6...
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How many teams in the league? If 12+, those receivers shouldn't last past you 5th pick. Who at QB? Romo/Brees? 7h round still seems late to me for next RB; looking at drafts, everyone I'd like to take disappears by then.
 
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Just Win Baby said:
Posted this in a recent thread:

Just Win Baby said:
Just Win Baby said:
I have the second pick in a 16 team draft (no PPR, start 1/2/3/1/1/1). 16 teams makes the value thin out a lot faster, with 28 picks between my odd and even round picks. I plan to go RB at 1.2 and get at least one WR at 2.15 and 3.2, with the other spot best available RB/WR. After that, I'll just go best available.I like the benefit of an early pick in terms of getting LT/AP, but I think this position tends to be the beneficiary of less sliding value players, since there aren't enough picks between even and odd picks for value to develop and there are so many picks between odd and even picks that it is less likely a value pick will slide all the way back. Also, it is sometimes necessary to take a position earlier than you might normally be inclined to do so (e.g., QB, TE, D/ST) to avoid being frozen out of a position run.
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In case anyone cares, I did some strategizing about this tonight, and I'm seriously considering the following plan:1.2 - LT/AP2.15 - WR1 (last year only 4 WRs were gone at this point, compared to 22 RBs)3.2 - WR24.15 - QB1 or TE, based on needs of the team at 1.15.2 - TE or QB1, whichever I didn't take at 4.15Notes: last year, by pick 6.15, 17 QBs were gone, so I feel forced to avoid getting frozen out at the position; meanwhile, last year, only 1 RB went between 5.2 and 6.15, and only 1 TE was taken by 5.2.6.15 - RB27.2 - RB38.15 - QB2 or WR3, based on needs of the team at 1.19.2 - WR3 or QB2, whichever I didn't take at 8.1510.15 to 14.15 - RB4, WR4, K, D/ST, and best value in some order determined by valueOh yeah, only 14 rounds. By foregoing RB2 until 6.15, I should be able to get 2 top 6-8 WRs, a top 2 TE, and a solid QB to go with LT/AP.
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In the other thread, people responded to generally say they were uncomfortable waiting until the 6th for RB2. So let me make one point on that: Last year, I went RB-WR-WR to start from the third draft position, and took Foster at 4.14 as my RB2, then QB in the 5th. I could have had Witten/Winslow at TE in the 4th/5th, and only 1 RB was taken between my Foster pick and my 6.14 pick. So in retrospect I would have been better off waiting on RB2. Of course, that was last year...I made a spreadsheet to analyze a number of different combinations in the first 7 picks, based on last year's draft (i.e., what was available at each pick). If I want to avoid getting the 18th QB taken as my first QB, then I have to take QB by the 5th. Using FBG projections with no tweaks, it turns out that this route projects the most points:QB1 - BradyRB23 - e.g., ParkerWR6 - e.g., EdwardsWR20 - e.g., CotcheryTE2 - e.g., WinslowRB34 - e.g., Chester TaylorThis lineup yields a great QB, TE, and set of WRs at the expense of RB. When I did this analysis last week, this group would produce 1117 points (FBG projections).However, I'm not sure I'm comfortable taking Brady at 1.2. The next best solution was this:RB2 - presumably APWR5 - e.g., Andre JohnsonWR6 - e.g., EdwardsRB32 - e.g., MendenhallTE2 - e.g., WinslowQB18 - e.g., RodgersThis group has much better RBs, carried by the AP choice, even better WRs, and the same strong TE... at the expense of the drop from Brady to Rodgers. This group would produce 1106 points (FBG projections).Another alternative is almost identical:RB2 - presumably APWR5 - e.g., Andre JohnsonWR6 - e.g., EdwardsTE2 - e.g., WinslowQB12 - e.g., Derek AndersonRB34 - e.g., Chester TaylorThis group would produce 1105 points (FBG projections).If I'm not comfortable taking Brady at 1.2, I have to decide whether or not I'm comfortable waiting until QB18 or so to get my starting QB. Note that we have only a 5 man bench, so I do not want to carry 3 QBs for a QBBC approach... 2 QBs in a committee may work, though.All that said, I am just trying to explore options, and I will definitely adjust as the draft unfolds.
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Had the draft last night:1.2 Adrian Peterson2.15 Torry Holt3.2 Chad Johnson4.15 Antonio Gates5.2 Jerricho Cotchery6.15 Vince Young7.2 Rashard Mendenhall8.15 Jerious Norwood9.2 Philip Rivers10.15 Reggie Brown11.2 Nate Kaeding12.15 Giants D/ST13.2 Chris Brown14.15 Antonio BryantI'm not overly happy with the results. Having 30 picks between my odd and even round picks was tough, and it was rare that players I was hoping would make it back to me made it.Obviously, my team is weak at RB2, so I have to hope one of Mendenhall, Norwood, or Brown emerges by midseason as a consistently startable option, keeping in mind that 32 RBs have to start every week in this league. In the draft I was continually faced with poor value choices available at my picks, so I kept taking better players at other positions. Chester Taylor went at 5.10, so I would have had to have taken him NLT 5.2 to get him. If AP goes down, I will probably be in trouble. I will probably try to work out a trade for him after a few weeks.Also, I'm not a big Vince Young fan, but I got him as the 14th QB taken, and our scoring is favorable for running QBs - 4 point passing TDs and 1 point per 30 passing yards vs. 6 point rushing TDs and 1 point per 10 rushing yards.Antonio Bryant won't be long for this roster, since he'll be the cut for my first free agent pickup.Anyway, just following up the #2 pick strategy with an example of holding off on RB2. I suspect most people will not like the results and will see this as a pattern to avoid. :no:ETA: DraftDominator (with latest default projections) has this team projected with the most points in the league for total roster and starters, and projects it to go undefeated. I'm sure that won't happen, but the point is that waiting at RB2 can be effective in terms of maximizing points.
 
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BUMP....drafting from 2 hole tonight.

Lean is towards Westy...

No PPR and pretty much TD heavy but I like Westy and the amount of touches he gets...he averaged about 25 to AP's 18 last year.

Isn't anybody concerned with Chester stealing carries whereas Westy should see the lions share... :whistle:

 
12 Team, No PPR

The guy with the first pick has already stated he is taking LT. That leaves me with taking AP and praying that he doesn't get injured. ALOT of New Orleans homers in my league so chances are he goes before Romo. I think from doing several mocks that a RB-WR-WR works best in this situation....but I would still be hard pressed to do that if Romo/Brees falls to late 2nd round. Much rather Stud RB and 2 Stud WRs and take a chance on a selvin young/michael turner round 4

 
Northbound Train said:
BUMP....drafting from 2 hole tonight.Lean is towards Westy...No PPR and pretty much TD heavy but I like Westy and the amount of touches he gets...he averaged about 25 to AP's 18 last year.Isn't anybody concerned with Chester stealing carries whereas Westy should see the lions share... :unsure:
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Bumpety bump Yes, I'm concerned about that. I have the second pick in a 12 team ppr league and am going back-and-forth in my mind between Westbrook and Peterson. Peterson could be the next 20-TD back, but his TD upside is counterbalanced by his inconsistent opportunities. Westbrook is almost guaranteed to get 350+ touches (barring significant injury, of course) while Peterson may not even get 300.
 
Native said:
Interesting, thats quite late for Mcfadden. What other WRs were left at the 4/5 turn?
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Yes, that's why I was willing to take him. I was expecting Edge or Parker, who both went in the 4th. That's the limitation of ADP - each league will have a different set of runs and drops. Jennings and Bowe were the next two WRs taken.
 
Non-PPR 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/1K/1D

1 - Adrian Peterson

2 - Andre Johnson

3 - Laurence Maroney

4 - Calvin Johnson

5 - Jonathan Stewart

6 - Dwayne Bowe

7 - DeAngelo Williams

8 - Vince Young

9 - Chris Johnson

10 - Matt Schaub

11 - Owen Daniels

12 - Tennessee D

13 - Neil Rackers

I think 8 & 9 might have been switched; can't remember.

 
After several mock drafts, I find this to be legitimately possible:

Adrian Peterson

Colston/Chad Johnson

Chad Johnson/Torry Holt

McFadden/Turner

Selvin Young/McFadden

If I ended up with 1 from each of those 5 rounds, I would be VERY pleased.

 
Had our draft yesterday 12-team redraft no-PPR

1.02 ADP

2.11 Andre Johnson

3.02 Carson Palmer (Brees, Romo & Brady went round 1 - Anderson & Peyton also went before pick...I felt compelled to jump here)

4.11 Calvin Johnson

5.02 Selvin Young

One of my errors was loading up on bye week 8 but I also think this is the way to go...get it over with quickly.

 
So it seems going RB-WR-Wr may not be the way to go. Maybe RB-RB-WR or RB-WR-RB. You can get 3 studly players in the 1st 3 RDs. Of course the draft is won in rounds 4-9, right

 
wolfeman said:
So it seems going RB-WR-Wr may not be the way to go. Maybe RB-RB-WR or RB-WR-RB. You can get 3 studly players in the 1st 3 RDs. Of course the draft is won in rounds 4-9, right
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I'm probably going RB-WR-WR in my 12-team ppr redraft because I don't like the backs I'm seeing in my mocks at 23 relative to the wide receivers. Our league uses the 3RR draft system so instead of having picks 2/23/26, I have picks 2/23/35. I'd rather get a Marques Colston/Andre Johnson/TJ Housh with my second pick (or one of the big four QBs) rather than a Willis McGahee, Maroney, or Turner. I should be able to get a serviceable RB2 to pair with ADP with either my fourth or fifth round pick at 47/50 (i.e. McFadden)...
 
That was my intial thought, RB-WR-WR.I am thinking Colston to be gone in Rd2. I dont mind taking the QB, but then I might as well go RB2 and then bang out Wrs for 4,5,6 rds.

 
The Psychologist said:
I just finished drafting in a 12 team non ppr league from the number two and came away with this:1. ADP2. Andre Johnson3. TJ Houshmanzadeh4. Kellen Winslow5. Jonathan Stewart6. Kevin Smith7. Lee Evans8. Vikings D9. Ahmad Bradshaw10. Marc Bulger11. Jake Delhomme12. Reggie Brown13. Vincent Jackson14. Steve Slaton15. Donald Lee16. Matt PraterI'm pretty happy with my draft considering I didn't draft a second running back till round 5. It was a very RB top-heavy first 2 or 3 rounds, so I didn't really feel there was good value to draft a RB in rounds 2-4. When Stewart fell to 5 and Smith was still there at 6, I couldn't have been more pleased. Hopefully, someone will break through via the waiver wires, but overall, I'm pleased with my draft.
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I really like this draft, but would have preferred to see another back in 9-13 (not Bradshaw). Maybe Ricky Williams? And I'm not that high on Stewart. Maybe a Forte in there if nobody better was around? But the rest looks very strong. The receivers and TE are great for a PPR.
 
Neil Beaufort Zod said:
I really like this draft, but would have preferred to see another back in 9-13 (not Bradshaw). Maybe Ricky Williams? And I'm not that high on Stewart. Maybe a Forte in there if nobody better was around?
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You can't get those guys round 9+. Best available there is probably Felix Jones.Edit - Sorry, I think I misread; you meant Forte where Stewart went, right? He was around then in my draft.
 
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Just completed a draft from the 2 spot this weekend:

Westy

Boldin

J. Lewis

Calvin Johnson

R. Bush

McFadden

R. Brown

Roddy White

Galloway

Scheffler

Gostkowski

Javon Walker

TB D

Leinart

Campbell

Bironas

Car D

Mercedes Lewis

 
Did a 10 team PPR redraft the other night, pretty standard scoring, results...

1.2 LT

2.9 LJ

3.2 Holt

4.9 Cal Johnson

5.2 Boldin

6.9 K Winslow

7.2 E James

8.9 Driver

9.2 Ricky W

10.9 Reg Brown

Might have a pick or 2 reversed, going off memory.

Less sure about the rest of the order, but also wound up with...

V Young

A Rodgers

J Fargus

K Jones

DJ Hackett

T Scheffler

Kaeding

Bills D

 
DreadedParms said:
We start 2 RB, 2 WR, TE & no flex. I expect to be taking AP with 1.2 in a fourteen team league. We keep one, mine is Santonio Holmes in exchange for losing my 6th, and about eight pretty decent WRs will be kept. At the 2/3 is where I'm having a problem. Most of the quality RBs will be gone. With the keepers, a lot of WRs will be gone. Barring exceptional value, I'm looking at crappy RB2 at 2 and a decent WR (Holt, Burress, Chad Johnson) at 3. I'm actually planning on taking Chester Taylor at the 4.13 regardless of whether or not I have AP. The RBs in the 5th all have question marks. The guy picking at 4.14 & 5.1 took Michael Turner last year at 5. I don't put it ahead of him to take Taylor at 5. I want to avoid that. Maybe it's too early, but I'd like some security, and if I have to pass on Chris Cooley to do it, then I will.
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Had the draft last night:1.2 - ADP2.13 - B. Jacobs3.2 - S. Smith4.13 - Chester Taylor (yeah a bit early, but I was convinced the guy at the first position would take him and, if not he wouldn't last until 7)5.2 - J. Cotchery (probably should've taken Harrison here)6.13 (keeper) - S. Holmes7.2 - Matt Hasselbeck8.13 - J. Norwood9.2 - M. Morris10.13 - Vincent Jackson11.2 - LJ Smith12.13 - Buffalo D13.2 - J. Garcia14.13 - R. McMichael 15.2 - B. Johnson (the only one I didn't like - not much else left)16.13 - Saints D (hello, Defense by Committee)17.2 - J. Reed18.13 - Mike NugentA lot of reaches, it was Christmas come early. Julius Jones & Chris Perry go late third. Robert Meachem, Chris Johnson, S. Gostowski goes in the 5th. Ray Rice and Slaton go in the sixth. Way too soon, IMO. Most of the bad picks were by three guys who kept feeding off one another's dumb picks. I like my team. With fourteen teams, it's hard for somebody to really drop, because even if there's a couple of idiots, somebody will see value.
 
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Well, this is the last time I listen to the people on FootballGuys.com. For a month, everyone on this message board has been saying that you should go RB-WR-WR with your first three picks if you draft #2 overall. They said there would be plenty of solid running backs left at the end of round 4. So going against my intuition I did and now I regret it. It turns out that everyone in my league went running back crazy and I was left with garbage for a second and third running back. Yes my WR’s are strong, but they don’t make up for my RB’s.

This was my draft:

1.2 Brian Westbrook

2.11 Braylon Edwards

3.2 Marques Colston

4.11 Steve Smith

5.2 Lendale White (Holmes and Marshall were available)

6.11 Matt Forte

Am I overreacting?

 
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AtomicDogg97 said:
Well, this is the last time I listen to the people on FootballGuys.com. For a month, everyone on this message board has been saying that you should go RB-WR-WR with your first three picks if you draft #2 overall. They said there would be plenty of solid running backs left at the end of round 4. So going against my intuition I did and now I regret it. It turns out that everyone in my league went running back crazy and I was left with garbage for a second and third running back. Yes my WR’s are strong, but they don’t make up for my RB’s.This was my draft:1.2 Brian Westbrook2.11 Braylon Edwards3.2 Marques Colston4.11 Steve Smith5.2 Lendale White (Holmes and Marshall were available)6.11 Matt ForteAm I overreacting?
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What are your starting requirements?
 
I got a 16 teamer tonight, should be interesting who is left when it is my turn up. Last year after 30 picks (up to 2.15) the following was taken:

4 QB

25 RB

1 WR

If it deviates even a little bit this year and Brees or Romo are there I will take them, otherwise I think I have to go WR-WR given the value left on the board. Best available RB due to ADP will be looking like: JStewart, Forte, FTaylor :yucky:

For the next 32 picks after 3.02 last year it went like this:

6 QB

8 RB

17 WR

1 TE

So there is a definite big run on WR's

 
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Christo it means to me that do get caught in the run. If everyone takes a WR then maybe look at the other spots(rb and qb)

 
wolfeman said:
Christo it means to me that do get caught in the run. If everyone takes a WR then maybe look at the other spots(rb and qb)
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:kicksrock: When people use the term I just picture them grabbing the next player on their cheat sheet without taking into account runs, ADPs etc.
 
Going RB-WR-WR would have been risky but it would have improved my WR corps.

I ended up taking a big risk and taking a top TE and my #1 DT early by going:

RB-RB-WR-TE-DT-QB-RB-RB-WR

16 team league

all TD's 6 pts, non-ppr, Ints are -3, passing 1/25, return yardage (KR and PR) 1/20, rushing/receiving 1/10

Start: QB, RB RB, WR WR WR, TE, DT, PK

I had the 2nd pick and traded up for the first pick for 10% of my sportsline FAAB dollars.

Ended up with (my rank in parens):

QB: (7)Garrard, (11)Warner, (30)Croyle

RB: (1)Tomlinson, (15)Turner, (23)Leon Washington, (32)Chris Perry

WR: (8)Holmes, (32)Reggie Brown, (40)Kevin Walter, (43)Breaston, (47)Hackett, (55)Hagan

TE: (2)Winslow

DT: (1)Minnesota

PK: --empty--

(ADP adjusted for 16 teams)

1.01 RB-Ladainian Tomlinson (01.01) SD/9

2.15 RB-Michael Turner (03.03) Atl/7

3.02 WR-Santonio Holmes (03.12) Pit/6

-- I took a big risk with these next two picks

4.15 TE-Kellen Winslow (04.03) Cle/5

5.02 DT-Minnesota (06.04 ) Min/8

6.15 QB-David Garrard (06.09) Jac/7

7.02 RB-Leon Washington (10.16) NYJ/5

8.15 RB-Chris Perry (09.06) Cin/8

-- hella late to be taking my WR2, I could have gone WR-WR in rounds 2 & 3 and ended up with Fitz+Holmes, but I felt I could not passup on Turner after 18RB's were already taken, I did have a good feeling that I could get decent WR value later in the draft

9.02 WR-Reggie Brown (07.12) Phi/7

10.15 WR-Kevin Walter (11.14) Hou/8

-- same bye at Garrard, I knew that going into the draft but I think Kurt has the *potential* to put up top 5 QB numbers if everything clicks

11.02 QB-Kurt Warner (12.08) Ari/7

-- With Steve Smith on suspension this guy should be startable for the first few weeks

12.15 WR-D.J. Hackett (08.14) Car/9

-- Next guy is all about return yards, I have him projected to score more points then Hackett overall

13.02 WR-Steve Breaston (---) Ari/7

14.15 WR-Derek Hagan (---) Mia/4

-- The only other startable QB left was Matt Ryan and he has the same bye as Warner & Garrard so I felt as if I had to take him

15.02 QB-Brodie Croyle (---) KC/6

 
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From the 2 hole in 12 team non-PPR

1.02 Adrian Peterson (RB)

2.11 Tony Romo (QB)

3.02 Brandon Marshall (WR)

4.11 Santanio Holmes (WR)

5.02 Calvin Johnson (WR)

6.11 Dwayne Bowe (WR)

7.02 Lendale White (RB)

8.11 DeAngelo Williams (RB)

9.02 Chester Taylor (RB)

10.11 Owen Daniels (TE)

11.02 Ricky Williams (RB)

12.12 Aaron Rodgers (QB)

13.02 Reggie Williams (WR)

14.11 Tampa Bay (DEF)

15.02 Mason Crosby (K)

16.11 Kevin Boss (TE)

Start 1 QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1W/R, TE, Def, K

Points 50 yards / 6 TD pass; 10 yards / 6 TD rec/rush

I'm pretty happy with the way this turned out. Didn't really like taking Romo in round 2 -- usually take a QB quite late - and thought it might be early for Marshall (passed on Chad, Holt, Plax, Welker) but worked out really well when Holmes, Calvin and then Bowe all dropped. Picked up some decent enough RB2 in White, Williams x2. so hopefully one of those will pan out. If not I can probably trade a WR for one.

 
Well the time finally came...

12 team redraft

PPR, basic scoring

QB:romo,farve

RB:westy,bush,r.williams,hightower

WR:cotchery,witten,ginn,berrian,thomas,bryant johnson.

We start:qb,2rb,3wr...

I took Westy @2.

Romo in the 2nd. All the WRs were gone. Top 6 were gone. Could have had Marshall, but no Romo...

Bush in the 3rd.

Cotchery in the 4th

Witten in the 5th.

My 1st 5 picks seemed solid. My 3rd WR is not so good. Everyone was WR happy. We draft 72 WRs altogether...

 
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