Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
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**NY Jets at NE Patriots** (-3.5, 38) (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Ministry of Pain
- Start date
rockaction
Footballguy
Zach, if you can hear me, I think you'd do well to play within yourself today and not try and chuck things up for grabs. It's midway through your second year and the evaluation is in high gear even though you've barely started a year's worth of games.
Rubber/road/meeting today.
Rubber/road/meeting today.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Gonna come to who can sustain the run game better. New England leads the league in Hurry %, Pressure %, 2nd in Sacks, 3rd in INT. 3rd in Overall DVOA but their run defense is exploitable.
Jets also have a very good defense themselves, 6th in DVOA. Slightly behind NE in most advanced defensive metrics but their run D is marginally better.
Kickers and passers might struggle today:
Winds W at 20 to 30 mph. Higher wind gusts possible.
Jets also have a very good defense themselves, 6th in DVOA. Slightly behind NE in most advanced defensive metrics but their run D is marginally better.
Kickers and passers might struggle today:
Winds W at 20 to 30 mph. Higher wind gusts possible.
FairWarning
Footballguy
should be a great under.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I'm not rooting against anyone but I do have some rooting interest in RS, would love to see Elijah Moore wake up but mostly I think the Patriots will just run the ball for much of the day and the Jets do have a good defense but as the game progresses and their Offense doesn't move the football, Pats wear them down.
New England 21...New York 7
Miami 7-3
Buffalo 7-3
New Eng 6-4
NY Jets 6-4
All Playoff teams
New England 21...New York 7
Miami 7-3
Buffalo 7-3
New Eng 6-4
NY Jets 6-4
All Playoff teams
Team Smokin'
Footballguy
Well Bobby, your post could help me make a line up decision because of the higher winds and gusts. Losing Kupp and filling the WR #3 role is coming down to Garrett Wilson, whom is projected fairly high this week vs. Kadarius Toney. Footballguys have Wilson at WR #14 this week - wow! and Toney at #26 - hard not to ignore this. My thoughts were Hoodie will like stop the run forcing Wilson to throw and turnovers, etc. Corey Davis being out and G Wilson is balling out. He is talented and getting targets and yards. Scoring TD's not so much. Another factor to consider is TD scoring. Toney seems like he's in a very good position to show some of his talents and I think has a better chance to score a TD.
And MoP, I'm also riding RS today. Good luck with E Moore. I liked him last year. I think G Wilson is the most talented of the bunch.
New York 7 or 10 or whatever is another reason to consider benching NY JETS players as well. Playing NE D in another league. Could very well be a run the ball low scoring game. Lets get RS into the endzone.
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BobbyLayne
Footballguy
1 target no receptions since he decided to whine on social media about not getting the ball (immediately following a massive win in Lambeau)
squeaky wheel gets the bench in Saleh's world
WK 7 DNP coaches decision
WK 8 10 snaps 1 target
WK 9 27 snaps 17 routes run 0 targets
WK 10 contemplating the wisdom of opening his trap
Mims and Berrios outsnapping him with Davis hurt
rockaction
Footballguy
Not totally surprised the Patriots are favored by more than a field goal at home.
That sounds about right.
But don't forget, the Jets were a roughing the passer penalty away from blowing the doors off of New England last game.
That sounds about right.
But don't forget, the Jets were a roughing the passer penalty away from blowing the doors off of New England last game.
Team Smokin'
Footballguy
Another convincing reason to consider whom to start and sit when it comes to choices.
rockaction
Footballguy
There was, however, beat reporter chatter about getting him more involved from the slot during the bye week.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
tough call - Wilson is being targeted on 24.5% of this routes run, really like that kid
studs overcome tough matchups and difficult conditions (but yeah....his QB doesn't inspire confidence so I get it)
rockaction
Footballguy
Really tough call between Wilson and Toney. I personally lean Toney because who else in KC is going to catch the ball in a back-and-forth game that will most likely require quite of bit of passing? (I say that even though the Chargers have been said -- and I don't get DVOA anymore -- to have a porous run defense.)
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
I saw those comments from Saleh (not sure which beat you man but that stuff is often wishcasting, I prefer to actually hear what the HC said.)
About 75% of his snaps have been on the boundary since he was drafted.
Patriots slot CB Jonathan Jones has a PFF grade fo 79.1. He's easier to throw on than Jack Jones but still 12/23 168 1-2 passer rating 54.3 is no way to go through life.
Tough matchup. But if they want to get the ball out quick, slants and digs to the slot would be a good way to go.
FairWarning
Footballguy
Wilson is probably the #1 while Toney isn’t. Toney does have a better qb, game total, weather, and not going against Hoodie. I just don’t watch the Jets much to get a feel for their offense.
FairWarning
Footballguy
NE has only allowed 1 100-yard rec game and 4 WR TDs this season. Probably going to come down to if you need floor or upside.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
It's been a weird bye week up in Patriots country. Since Boston is so accustomed to winning a lot, the past two weeks on sports talk tv and radio have been spent bashing the Patriots. Maybe that's because the Celtics and Bruins are a combined 29-5 so far this year, but the talking heads have been relentless. There's one station that has been actively campaigning and complaining to get BB fired for a couple of years, but that sentiment has spread across multiple media outlets. The most recent hot take is that if the Pats don't win a playoff game this season, Bill will be shown the door. (I don't believe that's the case, but it's gaining a lot of steam in these parts.)
On top of that, there are people that cover the team that are suggesting they will be lucky to finish the season with 7 wins . . . and if pressed they might take the under. Basically, the offense is a mess, the defense is a mirage, the coaching is invisible (or inept), and the team is a disaster with no talent and a bunch of JAGs. That being said, I look at the standings and see that they would make the playoffs if the season ended today. Some predictive / analytics sites and models actually have them IMPROVING their playoff spot, and the gauntlet of a schedule that was expected at the start of the season now has some of those teams not as dominant as was initial expected. I think they have a number of good young players that will only get better with more seasoning and experience. (I'm still not sold on Mac, but I think it's too soon to throw him under the bus.)
The Pats play NYJ, MIN(A), BUF, ARI(A), LV(A), CIN, MIA, BUF(A). Who knows how they will do. They could fade like the last few years or hang tough in a number of those games. If BUF can't improve their seed in the final week, who knows who they might play or sit that game. I can see NE winning 5 games . . . and I can also see them losing 5 games. A lot will depend on whether they can get the offense to be more functional.
On top of that, there are people that cover the team that are suggesting they will be lucky to finish the season with 7 wins . . . and if pressed they might take the under. Basically, the offense is a mess, the defense is a mirage, the coaching is invisible (or inept), and the team is a disaster with no talent and a bunch of JAGs. That being said, I look at the standings and see that they would make the playoffs if the season ended today. Some predictive / analytics sites and models actually have them IMPROVING their playoff spot, and the gauntlet of a schedule that was expected at the start of the season now has some of those teams not as dominant as was initial expected. I think they have a number of good young players that will only get better with more seasoning and experience. (I'm still not sold on Mac, but I think it's too soon to throw him under the bus.)
The Pats play NYJ, MIN(A), BUF, ARI(A), LV(A), CIN, MIA, BUF(A). Who knows how they will do. They could fade like the last few years or hang tough in a number of those games. If BUF can't improve their seed in the final week, who knows who they might play or sit that game. I can see NE winning 5 games . . . and I can also see them losing 5 games. A lot will depend on whether they can get the offense to be more functional.
In the elements and against a solid defense I don't trust either starting qb in this one. Lord Vader might have Patricia call 90% running plays, play defense and wait or force The Jets offense into multiple mistakes. Robert could have a similiar gameplan. So who makes the most or biggest mistakes and hands the game to the other team? Pick sixes for both defenses and one scoop and score for...
Patriots- 20
Gang Green- 14
Patriots- 20
Gang Green- 14
Boston
Footballguy
Must win game for the Pats...with Minny and Buffalo up next they need this win if they want to have a chance at making the playoffs...will be interesting to see how the O looks...as Anarchy pointed out there is blood in the water for some in the media but the show he is referencing is the most negative show in town and they live for stirring the pot and quite often it is pretty much schtick...they also get big ratings so it will get real ugly if they have a dud today......if the O struggles coming out of a bye it will look really bad for BB though...putting Patricia in charge is one of the most head-scratching things (i.e. dumb) he has done since he has been here and if it continues to fail it is 100% on BB since everyone but him thought it would...overall, until I see otherwise I see the Pats as a middle-of-the-road team that can contend for the playoffs but is light years away from being a championship contender.
rockaction
Footballguy
Which one? Felger and that balding, spittle-flecked goon or the Callahan one?
Boston
Footballguy
Felger and Mazz and I believe the goon you are referring to is Jim Murray...there is not one positive scenario they cannot find a negative with.
rockaction
Footballguy
Yep. I figured. I used to watch that show on TV! How lame. I drank a lot back then, though, so one can be forgiven.
The goon I'm referring to is Mazz, actually. His balding pate and his sort of wet talking were what I was getting at. Did you hear him on the Red Sox telecasts this year (I believe it was him)? Just awful. He couldn't run his normal schtick and he just didn't know the game of baseball like an Eckersley, Youkilis, Jerry Remy (RIP), or even a Jim Rice or Wakefield or Middlebrooks. He sounded stupid.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
This type of discussion is probably more suited for the NE team thread, but there has been talk of potential changes to the staff for next year. If the Raiders continue to flounder, McDaniels might be let go in the offseason and available for free (although there was an article this week that said LV didn't have the money to pay him to leave). There was also some talk in the media about Bill O'Brien being available (with Alabama not playing at the same level as in recent seasons). Even a couple of mentions of Nick Caley talking over the offense (he's been on the NE staff for 8 years). But the most interesting development that some have speculated was that BB himself might emerge out of the bye as the offensive play caller down the stretch (on the down low so not to make Patricia look bad).
Besides which coach is calling plays, a more pressing issue now (and moving forward) is the O-line. Brown, Wynn, and Cannon have rotated being hurt and sporadically effective, Andrews has been out, and Strange has had a couple games where he struggled and got pulled. They will need to invest in a couple of tackles next year . . . who and from where, who knows? They have $53 million in cap room to play with, but they need to fix some of their bloated contracts with big cap hits. Jonnu ($17.4M), Henry ($15.5M), and Bourne ($6.9M) account for $40M toward the cap and contribute very little (a combined 49-561-1 so far this year). Bear in mind, guys that aren't signed past this year include Wynn, Cannon, Jakobi Meyers, Jonathan Jones, Nelson Agholor, Damien Harris, Devin McCourty, and Matthew Slater. Moving on from Agholor should be celebrated, but some of those other players have been decent contributors. Their prognosis is likely being a slightly better than average team (say in the 12-15 range if healthy). A lot depends who they replace those guys with (and if they hit on more draft picks). IMO, they need to fix the OL issues before they can fix the rest of the offense, so I don't see them making a big splash at WR. PFF this week wrote that Meyers is the top potential free agent receiver on the market this year, and I can't see the Pats breaking the bank to keep him. I don't know what his market value will be, but I doubt he comes back to NE for a few million dollars a year.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
cross wind (toward visitors sideline)
pregame warmups: Nick Folk to the north end zone was 3 of 6. Hit from 28, 38, and 43. Missed from 43 (short knuckler), 48 (wide right), and 53 (hit left upright). The wind was swirling like crazy.
pregame warmups: Nick Folk to the north end zone was 3 of 6. Hit from 28, 38, and 43. Missed from 43 (short knuckler), 48 (wide right), and 53 (hit left upright). The wind was swirling like crazy.
Drake Hater
Footballguy
Damn I just picked up Folk. May the wind be kind
zamboni
Footballguy
At Gillette and can echo this. Cold and windy - don’t expect tons of passing stats - of course not there would be in perfect weather.
rockaction
Footballguy
Technical difficulties at CBS and a delayed start. 1:07 EDT.
rockaction
Footballguy
That was a terrible call against the Patriots. He didn't even touch the kicker. We saved thirty yards of field position on that call.
rockaction
Footballguy
New England has better running backs by a decent margin. Big advantage in this game.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Harris 3/31
RS 2/5
Here comes the seesaw back towards Harris
1,000 yds Rush, 15 TDs a year ago and largely an afterthought to many
RS 2/5
Here comes the seesaw back towards Harris
1,000 yds Rush, 15 TDs a year ago and largely an afterthought to many
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I believe you have to allow the kicker a place to land after the kick. A NE player was on the ground in his landing zone.
Boston
Footballguy
The line is part of the running game...Pats line is very suspect.
BlackCrowes
Footballguy
Belichek really does hate us
Anarchy99
Footballguy
There is no see saw. Both backs will see action. They will split series and RS will get most of the receiving down work. Harris had one big run.
rockaction
Footballguy
Wow. Greg the Leg. Tie game.
rockaction
Footballguy
You're right. That's an interesting rule. Didn't know it was like basketball that way.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Such a nasty run after the catch for Stevenson
rockaction
Footballguy
No excuse for that tackling. No wrap all shoulders.
rockaction
Footballguy
Those sacks pushed them out of field goal range. That was huge. Jets with decent field position now.
rockaction
Footballguy
There you go MoPe, Elijah with two catches.
rockaction
Footballguy
Wow. That one floated and almost picked.
rockaction
Footballguy
Can't disagree more with this punt.
