NYJ 2010 fantasy player projections (1 Viewer)

[Chase Stuart]

Assumptions:

1) None of the players in the below projections switch teams between now and the end of the season.

2) The Jets don't add any offensive players (besides a trivial player, encapsulated in the OTHER category) between now and the end of the season (may not be true)

3) Mark Sanchez will play in 14 complete games; Kellen Clemens will start and finish 2 complete games; all of the RBs will play in 13 games; the WRs and TEs will play all 16 games (this will not be true)

4) The Jets face an average strength of schedule

Player		 Pos  Comp  Att  Perc	Pyd   Y/A   PTD  INT   Rsh   Ryd   YPC   TD   Rec   Ryd   YPC  TD M. SANCHEZ	 QB	224  385  58.2%   2705  7.0   16   12	 30	85   2.8   1						K. CLEMENS	 QB	 32   55  58.2%	325  5.9	3	2	  7	18   2.6   0						S. GREENE	  RB											 235  1011   4.3   8	 6	 30   5.0   0L. TOMLINSON   RB											 141   578   4.1   7	15	110   7.3   1L. WASHINGTON  RB											  94   425   4.5   3	30	233   7.8   2T. RICHARDSON  FB											   5	25   5.0   0	 2	 12   6.0   0D. KELLER	  TE																	54	645  11.9   5B. HARTSOCK	TE																	 5	 45   9.0   1J. COTCHERY	WR											   1	 5   5.0   0	70	910  13.0   4B. EDWARDS	 WR											   1	 5   5.0   0	50	740  14.8   5D. CLOWNEY	 WR											   2	16   8.0   0	15	200  13.3   1B. SMITH	   WR											  15	80   5.3   1	 6	 65  10.8   0  OTHER																				 3	 40  13.3   0															   TOTAL				256  440  58.2%   3030  6.9   19   14	531  2248   4.2  20   256   3030  11.8  192009				 210  393  53.4%   2596  6.6   12   21	607  2756   4.5  21   210   2596  12.4  12

I'm projecting a decrease in rushing production due to regression to the mean; I'm predicting Sanchez to flip around his TD/INT ratio as I think he improves with experience and I think interceptions for a player like Sanchez are close to impossible to predict.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Kellen Clemens will start and finish 2 complete games;

 

[gheemony]

Great stuff, Chase. I hope you'll do this for all the teams as you lead up to providing your full-set of projections.

What's most helpful is the explanation of games played.

In this case, are the predictions for games played for the QBs and RBs based on historical injury rates? Or did you account individual situation? I know Greene and Sanchez were injured last year, but I'm not sure there is any reason to think they are more likely to play less games than the historical average.

 

[pantherclub]

Way too low on Greene. With that line and an improved Sanchez I would have to think 1200 yards is the ceiling as well as 8 td's. I dont see LT being anything more then a relief back

 

[Chase Stuart]

Great stuff, Chase. I hope you'll do this for all the teams as you lead up to providing your full-set of projections.What's most helpful is the explanation of games played.In this case, are the predictions for games played for the QBs and RBs based on historical injury rates? Or did you account individual situation? I know Greene and Sanchez were injured last year, but I'm not sure there is any reason to think they are more likely to play less games than the historical average.

I think most QBs should be projected for 14 games; I think that's a pretty reasonable projection for most QBs (that's based on my review of the historical rates, but that review was awhile ago so I don't have any of the numbers handy now). Same deal for RBs; 13-14 games is a pretty reasonable projection, and if anything, the Jets trio seem all a little more likely to get injured than the regular back (although somewhat tempered by the fact that they're in a committee). I think projecting 16 games for any of those three would be foolhardy, although not unreasonable if you project 16 games for every RB in the league.Thanks. I'm not sure if I'll do this for all the teams but it was something on my mind this afternoon.

 

[gheemony]

Great stuff, Chase. I hope you'll do this for all the teams as you lead up to providing your full-set of projections.

What's most helpful is the explanation of games played.

In this case, are the predictions for games played for the QBs and RBs based on historical injury rates? Or did you account individual situation? I know Greene and Sanchez were injured last year, but I'm not sure there is any reason to think they are more likely to play less games than the historical average.

I think most QBs should be projected for 14 games; I think that's a pretty reasonable projection for most QBs (that's based on my review of the historical rates, but that review was awhile ago so I don't have any of the numbers handy now). Same deal for RBs; 13-14 games is a pretty reasonable projection, and if anything, the Jets trio seem all a little more likely to get injured than the regular back (although somewhat tempered by the fact that they're in a committee). I think projecting 16 games for any of those three would be foolhardy, although not unreasonable if you project 16 games for every RB in the league.Thanks. I'm not sure if I'll do this for all the teams but it was something on my mind this afternoon.

What's the historical rate for WRs and TEs?Would be great if you could get your FBG colleagues to project games played too. Through the Retrospective Mock Draft, I am learning that fantasy points per game and games played are much more important than end of season totals.

 

[moderated]

Get ready for all the Shonne Greene lovers to attack.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Great stuff, Chase. I hope you'll do this for all the teams as you lead up to providing your full-set of projections.

What's most helpful is the explanation of games played.

In this case, are the predictions for games played for the QBs and RBs based on historical injury rates? Or did you account individual situation? I know Greene and Sanchez were injured last year, but I'm not sure there is any reason to think they are more likely to play less games than the historical average.

I think most QBs should be projected for 14 games; I think that's a pretty reasonable projection for most QBs (that's based on my review of the historical rates, but that review was awhile ago so I don't have any of the numbers handy now). Same deal for RBs; 13-14 games is a pretty reasonable projection, and if anything, the Jets trio seem all a little more likely to get injured than the regular back (although somewhat tempered by the fact that they're in a committee). I think projecting 16 games for any of those three would be foolhardy, although not unreasonable if you project 16 games for every RB in the league.Thanks. I'm not sure if I'll do this for all the teams but it was something on my mind this afternoon.

What's the historical rate for WRs and TEs?Would be great if you could get your FBG colleagues to project games played too. Through the Retrospective Mock Draft, I am learning that fantasy points per game and games played are much more important than end of season totals.

I think the WR rates are a little higher. I'd probably project 15 games for most WRs, but I just wanted to stipulate for WRs that they would get 16 games in order to get a better feel for how I think the offense will look. If you want to project 16 games for all the RBs, Greene would receive a disproportionate bump since LT/Washington would obviously have lower per-game numbers if Greene was never hurt; I'd keep the team totals pretty similar, though.

 

[finito]

Way too low on Greene. With that line and an improved Sanchez I would have to think 1200 yards is the ceiling as well as 8 td's. I dont see LT being anything more then a relief back

Doubt LT is just a relief back. He is going to get some reps for sure, wouldn't be surprised if he had close to 200 touches. The line in NY is MUCH better, LT won't be a worldbeater but his ypc should increase and he is still a good receiver out of the backfield.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Way too low on Greene. With that line and an improved Sanchez I would have to think 1200 yards is the ceiling as well as 8 td's. I dont see LT being anything more then a relief back

I think an improved Sanchez is not going to be good for Greene. The Jets were incredibly committed to the running game last year, and I'm projecting 64 fewer carries this year. Give Greene another 40-50 carries and his numbers would be a bit better.

 

[David Yudkin]

Chase -

I realize we are a long way from playing football, but what would you project the Jets record to be?

 

[Dawg Pound 69]

The ypc are out of whack. Anybody who watched LT the last few years would agree that no way will he average only 0.2 less ypc than Greene. I know Jets O-line is much better than San Diego's, and Greene's average will be hurt by being the short-yardage back. But still think LT will be around 3.7, and Greene around 4.8.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Chase - I realize we are a long way from playing football, but what would you project the Jets record to be?

11-5.

 

[Chase Stuart]

The ypc are out of whack. Anybody who watched LT the last few years would agree that no way will he average only 0.2 less ypc than Greene. I know Jets O-line is much better than San Diego's, and Greene's average will be hurt by being the short-yardage back. But still think LT will be around 3.7, and Greene around 4.8.

There are very few RB1s that I would project a YPC average of over 4.5. Shonn Greene isn't close to being one of them.

 

[Chase Stuart]

The ypc are out of whack. Anybody who watched LT the last few years would agree that no way will he average only 0.2 less ypc than Greene. I know Jets O-line is much better than San Diego's, and Greene's average will be hurt by being the short-yardage back. But still think LT will be around 3.7, and Greene around 4.8.

There are very few RB1s that I would project a YPC average of over 4.5. Shonn Greene isn't close to being one of them.

Only two RBs -- CJ4.24 and DeAngelo Williams -- had an average YPC of over 4.5 and at least 200 carries in both '08 and '09. Almost no RB's true ability is at 4.6, 4.7, 4.8 YPC; that's why it's rare for RBs to do it in consecutive seasons, because it takes more than just elite skill; it takes a bit of luck. I think if the 2010 season was played 1000 times, Greene would not hit 4.5 YPC more than maybe 300 times and would probably hit 4.8 YPC 75-100 times. That's the sort of thinking I use when I do my projections, which is neither the right way nor the common way. It's just what makes the most sense to me, and explains why I put Greene at 4.3.

 

[Jello_Biafra]

i thought they cut richardson.

 

[Chase Stuart]

i thought they cut richardson.

He hasn't signed with anyone yet, and it looks like he'll probably be going to the Jets or the Chiefs. I think the Jets are the favorite at this point, but we'll see. If not, switch his numbers with Jason Davis' (and maybe downgrade the rush offense a tick).

 

[Jello_Biafra]

i thought they cut richardson.

He hasn't signed with anyone yet, and it looks like he'll probably be going to the Jets or the Chiefs. I think the Jets are the favorite at this point, but we'll see. If not, switch his numbers with Jason Davis' (and maybe downgrade the rush offense a tick).

Actually, I think it would be more than a tick. Glad to see this news:# NFL - Schefter: Jets agree with 4-time Pro Bowl FB Tony Richardson, who has been with the team since 2008 8 minutes ago via UberTwitter

http://twitter.com/SportTalkJunkie

 

[David Yudkin]

i thought they cut richardson.

He hasn't signed with anyone yet, and it looks like he'll probably be going to the Jets or the Chiefs. I think the Jets are the favorite at this point, but we'll see. If not, switch his numbers with Jason Davis' (and maybe downgrade the rush offense a tick).

Actually, I think it would be more than a tick. Glad to see this news:# NFL - Schefter: Jets agree with 4-time Pro Bowl FB Tony Richardson, who has been with the team since 2008 8 minutes ago via UberTwitter

http://twitter.com/SportTalkJunkie

Richardson missed almost half the season last year and will turn 39 years old during the season. I'm not sure his level of contribution is anywhere near what it was when he was in his prime.

 

[Jello_Biafra]

i thought they cut richardson.

He hasn't signed with anyone yet, and it looks like he'll probably be going to the Jets or the Chiefs. I think the Jets are the favorite at this point, but we'll see. If not, switch his numbers with Jason Davis' (and maybe downgrade the rush offense a tick).

Actually, I think it would be more than a tick. Glad to see this news:# NFL - Schefter: Jets agree with 4-time Pro Bowl FB Tony Richardson, who has been with the team since 2008 8 minutes ago via UberTwitter

http://twitter.com/SportTalkJunkie

Richardson missed almost half the season last year and will turn 39 years old during the season. I'm not sure his level of contribution is anywhere near what it was when he was in his prime.

He is very old, that's true. Missing half the games, not so sure. He played in all 16, starting 10.

 

[David Yudkin]

i thought they cut richardson.

He hasn't signed with anyone yet, and it looks like he'll probably be going to the Jets or the Chiefs. I think the Jets are the favorite at this point, but we'll see. If not, switch his numbers with Jason Davis' (and maybe downgrade the rush offense a tick).

Actually, I think it would be more than a tick. Glad to see this news:# NFL - Schefter: Jets agree with 4-time Pro Bowl FB Tony Richardson, who has been with the team since 2008 8 minutes ago via UberTwitter

http://twitter.com/SportTalkJunkie

Richardson missed almost half the season last year and will turn 39 years old during the season. I'm not sure his level of contribution is anywhere near what it was when he was in his prime.

He is very old, that's true. Missing half the games, not so sure. He played in all 16, starting 10.

Didn't scroll down far enough. I was looking at 2006.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Oh man... Green putting up 10ppg (PPR) will not be a popular prediction.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Oh man... Green putting up 10ppg (PPR) will not be a popular prediction.

I like Greene. A lot. I liked him last summer, and I actually projected him for 91 FP last year (he had 66, because he had only 2 TDs). But in PPR, how do you love him? He has one career reception, which came in the playoff game. Last year, Jones, a guy who's a solid receiver at the position (he once had 56 catches), had only 10 receptions, and that's without Leon Washington for half the year. Greene came in with a reputation as having brick hands, he caught 0 passes in the regular season last year, and the Jets RB1 who has better hands had 10 catches last year. I won't project Greene for more than 5 receptions with Washington and LT around.

 

[gonzobill5]

I think most QBs should be projected for 14 games; I think that's a pretty reasonable projection for most QBs (that's based on my review of the historical rates, but that review was awhile ago so I don't have any of the numbers handy now).

Do you think 2009 was more of an aberration or a product of recent rule changes protecting the QB? From memory, McNabb, Hasselbeck, and Ryan were the only QBs who missed any time and it really wasn't anything significant. I understand projecting Sanchez for only 14 games if you have some concerns about the knee injury. But what is the point of an across the board projection of 14 games for the position? When you say "most" I get the impression you mean every QB not named Manning or Favre - is that correct?

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Oh man... Green putting up 10ppg (PPR) will not be a popular prediction.

I like Greene. A lot. I liked him last summer, and I actually projected him for 91 FP last year (he had 66, because he had only 2 TDs). But in PPR, how do you love him? He has one career reception, which came in the playoff game. Last year, Jones, a guy who's a solid receiver at the position (he once had 56 catches), had only 10 receptions, and that's without Leon Washington for half the year. Greene came in with a reputation as having brick hands, he caught 0 passes in the regular season last year, and the Jets RB1 who has better hands had 10 catches last year. I won't project Greene for more than 5 receptions with Washington and LT around.

I actually agree with you and think that Greene's ceiling is probably 12-13ppg for maybe two or three years. But that's not what his going price today is predicting.

 

[Devine Intervention]

Chase - I realize we are a long way from playing football, but what would you project the Jets record to be?

11-5.

I think those are some pretty lofty expectations. They went 9-7 last year, with the last 2 games handed to them. Even if you give them the bengals game they are an 8-8 team. They still play NE twice a year and an 8-8 miami team. I wouldnt say their offense has improved at all. I just dont see one more year of exp for Sanchez putting them into the 11-5 range. I think they stay at the 9-7 range again while Sanchez is still going to be having his growing pains.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I think most QBs should be projected for 14 games; I think that's a pretty reasonable projection for most QBs (that's based on my review of the historical rates, but that review was awhile ago so I don't have any of the numbers handy now).

Do you think 2009 was more of an aberration or a product of recent rule changes protecting the QB? From memory, McNabb, Hasselbeck, and Ryan were the only QBs who missed any time and it really wasn't anything significant. I understand projecting Sanchez for only 14 games if you have some concerns about the knee injury. But what is the point of an across the board projection of 14 games for the position? When you say "most" I get the impression you mean every QB not named Manning or Favre - is that correct?

I agree that '09 felt like a particularly healthy year, and most likely, I'd say it was an aberration, especially when it's the good QBs that stay healthy. But still:Warner, Sanchez, Roethlisberger and Cassel all missed a game due to injury.Ryan, Hasselbeck, McNabb missed two.Stafford, Bulger missed half the season with injuries.Chad Pennington missed practically the whole season.JaMarcus Russell, Delhomme, Brady Quinn, Trent Edwards, Kerry Collins, Shaun Hill and Byron Leftwich all missed games due to a combination of injuries/benchings (I honestly can't remember for all of them what was the case; I think most were at least partially injury related).Also, the median is almost always going to be higher than the average, and I think the average is what you're looking for with a projection. So to project that, on average, a starting QB plays in 14 games seems like good practice to me. But YMMV.

 

[gheemony]

I like how the passing game makes huge strides yet the running game takes a hit. The team put up 4.5 ypc last year while facing 8 men in the box. If Sanchez starts to make the D play a little more honest why does the rushing game regress? And 141 carries is a lot for a third down back.

I know you're bitter these predictions below didn't work out for you, but let the Greene hate go. If he's healthy, he'll get more than 18 carries per game and more than 4.3 ypc. Jones lacked Greene's explosion and even he got 4.2 ypc last year - with Sanchez stinking up the joint.

Thomas Jones ranked 4th in the NFL in rushing first downs. If he's healthy, he's going to be the Jets guy next year.

There are no guarantees that either Jones or Washington will be playing for the Jets next season, but as it stands, I suspect they both will be and Greene will be the #3.

I didn't watch all of the WC game. Why did Greene get 6 more carries than Jones?

That happens. The Jets go into the game planning to run 40 times, so obviously they can't just feed Jones the rock early if they want him as a finisher late. They were mixing up the carries, and Jones had a big workload in week 17. Greene was playing well, and was a good fit for the weather and that tough defense. I wasn't surprised to see him end up with more carries than Jones.But assuming Washington and Jones are on the Jets next year, Greene will be the RB3.

I think Chase's assumptions are reasonable. What are your specific projections?

 

[Pickle Rody]

Please...............I'd like to know MrTwo94..................No joke...................what are your projections for the NYJ RB's in 2010?..................

 

[cstu]

Way too low on Greene. With that line and an improved Sanchez I would have to think 1200 yards is the ceiling as well as 8 td's. I dont see LT being anything more then a relief back

I get the feeling that the Jets wouldn't mind not over-working Greene based on how great he was last year in the playoffs. Of course they are going to do whatever it takes to win, but I think they'd rather not give Greene the ball 300 times this year if they can avoid it.

 

[cstu]

Oh man... Green putting up 10ppg (PPR) will not be a popular prediction.

I like Greene. A lot. I liked him last summer, and I actually projected him for 91 FP last year (he had 66, because he had only 2 TDs). But in PPR, how do you love him? He has one career reception, which came in the playoff game. Last year, Jones, a guy who's a solid receiver at the position (he once had 56 catches), had only 10 receptions, and that's without Leon Washington for half the year. Greene came in with a reputation as having brick hands, he caught 0 passes in the regular season last year, and the Jets RB1 who has better hands had 10 catches last year. I won't project Greene for more than 5 receptions with Washington and LT around.

I actually agree with you and think that Greene's ceiling is probably 12-13ppg for maybe two or three years. But that's not what his going price today is predicting.

I think he'll do a little better than that, but he's borderline top 10 material in PPR at best due to lack of receptions. I expect around 200FP in PPR (1200/10 and maybe 10 receptions for 70), which is solid if expectations weren't sky high for him.

 

[Tanner9919]

Assumptions:

1) None of the players in the below projections switch teams between now and the end of the season.

2) The Jets don't add any offensive players (besides a trivial player, encapsulated in the OTHER category) between now and the end of the season (may not be true)

3) Mark Sanchez will play in 14 complete games; Kellen Clemens will start and finish 2 complete games; all of the RBs will play in 13 games; the WRs and TEs will play all 16 games (this will not be true)

4) The Jets face an average strength of schedule

Player Pos Comp Att Perc Pyd Y/A PTD INT Rsh Ryd YPC TD Rec Ryd YPC TD M. SANCHEZ QB 224 385 58.2% 2705 7.0 16 12 30 85 2.8 1 K. CLEMENS QB 32 55 58.2% 325 5.9 3 2 7 18 2.6 0 S. GREENE RB 235 1011 4.3 8 6 30 5.0 0L. TOMLINSON RB 141 578 4.1 7 15 110 7.3 1L. WASHINGTON RB 94 425 4.5 3 30 233 7.8 2T. RICHARDSON FB 5 25 5.0 0 2 12 6.0 0D. KELLER TE 54 645 11.9 5B. HARTSOCK TE 5 45 9.0 1J. COTCHERY WR 1 5 5.0 0 70 910 13.0 4B. EDWARDS WR 1 5 5.0 0 50 740 14.8 5D. CLOWNEY WR 2 16 8.0 0 15 200 13.3 1B. SMITH WR 15 80 5.3 1 6 65 10.8 0 OTHER 3 40 13.3 0 TOTAL 256 440 58.2% 3030 6.9 19 14 531 2248 4.2 20 256 3030 11.8 192009 210 393 53.4% 2596 6.6 12 21 607 2756 4.5 21 210 2596 12.4 12I'm projecting a decrease in rushing production due to regression to the mean; I'm predicting Sanchez to flip around his TD/INT ratio as I think he improves with experience and I think interceptions for a player like Sanchez are close to impossible to predict.

I think the rushing numbers actually improve/increase..last year the Jets faced many 8-man fronts, and still finished with one of the best running games in the league.This year they'll have more time to get Braylon more involved in the offense, and I think they open up the TE position and make it a big time threat against opposing defenses - stretching the field and opening up the running lanes..I do think Sanchez, like most QBs, will struggle in Year Two..Matt Ryan struggled mightily last season, Flacco did well but from what I can tell, most second-year starting QB's fall to earth somewhat...you have the stats you can probably provide more information on this than I can, but I've noticed this to be somewhat of a trend - QB's struggle in the 2nd seasons as starters..is this true or a mirage?

anyways, I think Sanchez will still be guilty of the bad throws/costly errors from time to time, again, see Matt Ryan 2009..

you might see a marginal increase in TD production but nothing spectacular..I don't think this offense is going to go thru Sanchez' arm - it's all about Shonn Greene (and LT2) now..

it's what they're built for. play action passes to the TE/RB, and take the occasional shot down the field.

I'd be shocked if the Jets, and specifically Shonn Greene didn't finish in the top 5 in terms of RB production

 

[Chase Stuart]

I think the rushing numbers actually improve/increase..last year the Jets faced many 8-man fronts, and still finished with one of the best running games in the league.This year they'll have more time to get Braylon more involved in the offense, and I think they open up the TE position and make it a big time threat against opposing defenses - stretching the field and opening up the running lanes..I do think Sanchez, like most QBs, will struggle in Year Two..Matt Ryan struggled mightily last season, Flacco did well but from what I can tell, most second-year starting QB's fall to earth somewhat...you have the stats you can probably provide more information on this than I can, but I've noticed this to be somewhat of a trend - QB's struggle in the 2nd seasons as starters..is this true or a mirage?anyways, I think Sanchez will still be guilty of the bad throws/costly errors from time to time, again, see Matt Ryan 2009..you might see a marginal increase in TD production but nothing spectacular..I don't think this offense is going to go thru Sanchez' arm - it's all about Shonn Greene (and LT2) now..it's what they're built for. play action passes to the TE/RB, and take the occasional shot down the field.I'd be shocked if the Jets, and specifically Shonn Greene didn't finish in the top 5 in terms of RB production

Most rookie QBs not only improve in year two, they make the biggest percentage improvement of their careers in year two. Ryan certainly fell back to earth, but Flacco is a poor example. Ryan was perhaps the greatest rookie QB in NFL history, so he's going to be an outlier no matter what.But Flacco improved his adjusted net yards per attempt, yards per attempt, his sack rate, his completion rate, his TD percentage and his INT rate last year. He also had about 40 more FPs in '09 than in '08. Anything is possible, but I'd be shocked if Sanchez doesn't improve in '10. Why? Not because he's a lock to be a star, but because for the most part, he stunk in 2009. Whether you're talking fantasy or real life, Sanchez seems like a lock to improve on his ANY/A number (he ranked 27th out of 32 last year) and his FP number (he ranked 24th in FP and 27th in FP/G). The odds of a young rookie QB (i.e., someone who came out early) that was highly drafted who had a pretty poor rookie year (bottom quarter of the league by most measures) regression in year 2 is very low, IMO. I'd say he'll probably be about 18 or 19 in ANY/A and slightly lower than that in FP or FP/G.As far as the running game, yes, I absolutely agree that the Jets RBs should finish in the top 5. As far as projections go, I might only project two of three other teams with more FPs. But the RB/pasing game relationship is a red herring. There's zero evidence to indicate that an improved passing game (or, conversely, a crappy passing game) has any impact whatsoever on a team's rushing stats. If you'd like some exhibits, take a look at the 2009 Jets and the 2009 Colts/Chargers.(As for saying the Jets running game improves/increases next season, I'd say the odds of the Jets rushing for more than 2750 yards is very low. That's like asking Chris Johnson to improve on his '09 season.)

 

[Reaper]

At face value without number crunching, these projections don't excite me as a Jets fan. But, I'm sure you worked them out relative to Offensive production and league wide rankings.

I would hope for about 200 more yards from Braylon and possibly 200 more yards from LT between rushing and receptions. Bump Sanchez up accordingly.

Then again, Fantasy wise, the only Jet I figure to own is Braylon Edwards... Possibly LT if he's around late...

At this point Leon is the big question mark... Sounds like the Jets are completely open to drafting a RB and letting Leon walk. Tough to say if he'll still have that burst that makes him special and when he'll be 100%.

 

[Reaper]

I think the rushing numbers actually improve/increase..last year the Jets faced many 8-man fronts, and still finished with one of the best running games in the league.This year they'll have more time to get Braylon more involved in the offense, and I think they open up the TE position and make it a big time threat against opposing defenses - stretching the field and opening up the running lanes..I do think Sanchez, like most QBs, will struggle in Year Two..Matt Ryan struggled mightily last season, Flacco did well but from what I can tell, most second-year starting QB's fall to earth somewhat...you have the stats you can probably provide more information on this than I can, but I've noticed this to be somewhat of a trend - QB's struggle in the 2nd seasons as starters..is this true or a mirage?anyways, I think Sanchez will still be guilty of the bad throws/costly errors from time to time, again, see Matt Ryan 2009..you might see a marginal increase in TD production but nothing spectacular..I don't think this offense is going to go thru Sanchez' arm - it's all about Shonn Greene (and LT2) now..it's what they're built for. play action passes to the TE/RB, and take the occasional shot down the field.I'd be shocked if the Jets, and specifically Shonn Greene didn't finish in the top 5 in terms of RB production

Most rookie QBs not only improve in year two, they make the biggest percentage improvement of their careers in year two. Ryan certainly fell back to earth, but Flacco is a poor example. Ryan was perhaps the greatest rookie QB in NFL history, so he's going to be an outlier no matter what.But Flacco improved his adjusted net yards per attempt, yards per attempt, his sack rate, his completion rate, his TD percentage and his INT rate last year. He also had about 40 more FPs in '09 than in '08. Anything is possible, but I'd be shocked if Sanchez doesn't improve in '10. Why? Not because he's a lock to be a star, but because for the most part, he stunk in 2009. Whether you're talking fantasy or real life, Sanchez seems like a lock to improve on his ANY/A number (he ranked 27th out of 32 last year) and his FP number (he ranked 24th in FP and 27th in FP/G). The odds of a young rookie QB (i.e., someone who came out early) that was highly drafted who had a pretty poor rookie year (bottom quarter of the league by most measures) regression in year 2 is very low, IMO. I'd say he'll probably be about 18 or 19 in ANY/A and slightly lower than that in FP or FP/G.

Most important IMO, the guy is in the Jet offices every single day.... He's not one of these guy's that you cross your fingers and hope he shows up on time or at all for mini-camp and hope he shows up in shape... He's there every day studying and working his tail off.

 

[KellysHeroes]

I project Cromartie to have 3 more kids after 2 years in NY

Jets CB Antonio Cromartie won't have to appear in a San Diego court after he paid his past-due child support obligations.

Cromartie, who has seven children by six women in five states, had been past due on his support of them by around $25,000 to $50,000. The Jets gave him a $500,000 advance so he could take care of the situation.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Oh man... Green putting up 10ppg (PPR) will not be a popular prediction.

I like Greene. A lot. I liked him last summer, and I actually projected him for 91 FP last year (he had 66, because he had only 2 TDs). But in PPR, how do you love him? He has one career reception, which came in the playoff game. Last year, Jones, a guy who's a solid receiver at the position (he once had 56 catches), had only 10 receptions, and that's without Leon Washington for half the year. Greene came in with a reputation as having brick hands, he caught 0 passes in the regular season last year, and the Jets RB1 who has better hands had 10 catches last year. I won't project Greene for more than 5 receptions with Washington and LT around.

Rex Ryand had a great line about Greene in training camp last season. Something along the lines of "defenders bounce off this guy, but unfortunately so do passes."

 

[Reaper]

I project Cromartie to have 3 more kids after 2 years in NY Jets CB Antonio Cromartie won't have to appear in a San Diego court after he paid his past-due child support obligations.Cromartie, who has seven children by six women in five states, had been past due on his support of them by around $25,000 to $50,000. The Jets gave him a $500,000 advance so he could take care of the situation.

So, we finally figured out the answer to "Who's Your Daddy?"

 

[dmac37]

As Sanchez gains experience I can see Cotchery becoming the next coming of Driver/Mason in PPR. no respect at draft time but putting up solid numbers in PPR.

 

[Tau837]

I think most QBs should be projected for 14 games; I think that's a pretty reasonable projection for most QBs (that's based on my review of the historical rates, but that review was awhile ago so I don't have any of the numbers handy now).

Do you think 2009 was more of an aberration or a product of recent rule changes protecting the QB? From memory, McNabb, Hasselbeck, and Ryan were the only QBs who missed any time and it really wasn't anything significant. I understand projecting Sanchez for only 14 games if you have some concerns about the knee injury. But what is the point of an across the board projection of 14 games for the position? When you say "most" I get the impression you mean every QB not named Manning or Favre - is that correct?

Or Rivers, who has never missed a start in college or in the NFL. And I'd assume there are others.

 

[cstu]

Oh man... Green putting up 10ppg (PPR) will not be a popular prediction.

I like Greene. A lot. I liked him last summer, and I actually projected him for 91 FP last year (he had 66, because he had only 2 TDs). But in PPR, how do you love him? He has one career reception, which came in the playoff game. Last year, Jones, a guy who's a solid receiver at the position (he once had 56 catches), had only 10 receptions, and that's without Leon Washington for half the year. Greene came in with a reputation as having brick hands, he caught 0 passes in the regular season last year, and the Jets RB1 who has better hands had 10 catches last year. I won't project Greene for more than 5 receptions with Washington and LT around.

Rex Ryand had a great line about Greene in training camp last season. Something along the lines of "defenders bounce off this guy, but unfortunately so do passes."

That's great.

 

[cstu]

Signed LT2 who was not productive last year but stated himself that he was healthy that season.

The Chargers OL was a disaster last year and the entire team combined for the worst YPC in the league. He clearly wasn't his old self, but behind one of the league's best OL's he could look much better this year.

 

[Cassius]

From all the panting Green fans here, LT is slowly creeping up my buy-low list.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Good sobering stuff from Chase here. Greene will Cedric Benson or Michael Turner with about 100 less carries.

 

[Reaper]

From all the panting Green fans here, LT is slowly creeping up my buy-low list.

Rex Ryan claims LT will get 15 carries a game...

.. I wonder if part of this comment has something to do with the Leon Washington negotiations - As in, "Leon is a Change of Pace / ST guy"... and not a "Starting NFL RB" like Leon and his agent were trying to sell him as...

PFT

Ryan: Tomlinson slated for 15 carries a game

Posted by Gregg Rosenthal on March 23, 2010 3:07 PM ET

Rex Ryan's vision of the 2010 Jets backfield will be music to LaDainian Tomlinson's ears, and should be nails on a chalkboard for Jets fans. And Leon Washington's agent.

"What we should do with [Washington], in my opinion, is put him back to his role which he had initially, which is third-down back, a change-of-pace type back, and a Pro Bowl returner. And there's nothing wrong with that," Ryan said to Bob Glauber of Newsday Tuesday.

It makes sense to work Washington into the mix slowly, but he should be a huge part of the offense again when healthy. At least Tomlinson will be the clear backup to Shonn Greene, right?

"Hypothetically, we'd see [Tomlinson] carry the ball 15 times a game," Ryan said. "We're just going to ground and pound away. I'm sure some games he'll have more rushing attempts than Shonn Greene, and I think Shonn will have more than L.T. in other games."

I don't even need go to the stats to explain why Greene should be getting a lot more touches than Tomlinson. Go back and watch the Jets-Chargers playoff game.

Handing Tomlinson 15 carries a game at the expense of his younger teammates will be doing Jets opponents a favor.

 

[David Yudkin]

This time of year, coaches say things that in practical reality could never happen. As the preseason evolves, Ryan will probably make comments that Greene will get 20-25 carries, LT 15 carries, and Washington 8-10 carries a game (on 3rd downs, long yardage, passing situations, etc.). Of course, over a full season that adds up to 750-800 rushing attempts and clearly that's not going to happen.

I suspect that ON OCCASION Tomlinson might get 15 carries, but as a week in and week out thing I doubt it will happen. Unless, of course, the Jets only pass the ball 5 times a game.

 

[LBH]

I think Tomlinson is a great value buy right now. If you need a filler RB2 in your dynasty for a year i think he might do the trick. Jets are probably going to use two backs a lot and i think Tomlinson has the PPR potential to produce at a steady level. Greene looks like he has a lot of talent but im not sure how much of a beating he can take, and the Jets had Washington/T.Jones at a pretty even split until Washington broke his leg. I think Washington will mostly be used on returns/gimmick plays/3rd and long/2 min offense

 

[David Yudkin]

I think Tomlinson is a great value buy right now. If you need a filler RB2 in your dynasty for a year i think he might do the trick. Jets are probably going to use two backs a lot and i think Tomlinson has the PPR potential to produce at a steady level. Greene looks like he has a lot of talent but im not sure how much of a beating he can take, and the Jets had Washington/T.Jones at a pretty even split until Washington broke his leg. I think Washington will mostly be used on returns/gimmick plays/3rd and long/2 min offense

In the 6 games prior to Washington breaking his leg, he averaged 12 carries and 2.5 receptions per game. Jones averaged 16 carries and 1 reception per game. Greene, as a rookie, was barely utilized the first few weeks of the season.Now there are three options instead of two, so that will cost all three guys touches.Also, the Jets ranked first in the league in rushing attempts at an insanely high 607 attempts. On the flip side, they ranked dead last in the league in passing attempts (only 393). IMO, for the Jest to win more games, they need to be more balanced, so I would think they would run less and let Sanchez do more this year.

 

[Young 8]

This time of year, coaches say things that in practical reality could never happen.

shhhh...don't say that too loud

 

[Reaper]

This time of year, coaches say things that in practical reality could never happen.

shhhh...don't say that too loud

I still think you need to tweak LT's numbers up a little (from Chase's #'s), be very weary of Greene for fantasy purposes since he doesn't catch the ball at all and wonder what role Leon will have at all IF he even returns.