gonzobill5
Footballguy
Prior to the 2012-2013 season I gave up on redraft and moved on to a pretty competitive keeper league. Since that change I have found myself wishing there was more keeper league discussion here at FBGs where everything has a dynasty/redraft flavor. I understand that keeper league rules can differ pretty significantly making this conversation difficult, so I'll start by sharing some basics about my league followed by general strategies that have been successful early on. If others care to chime in about their leagues (general rules + strategies that worked/failed) I'd love to hear it.
Our rules (I'll try to limit these to rules that are relevant to the strategies discussed):
-3 keepers per year according to the formula: draft round - 2*number of years kept
-Undrafted players acquired off waivers can be kept at ADP
-In season trading of players for future picks is allowed and occurs often
-One IR spot
Observation #1: All keepers are declining assets, treat them as such. Putting the formula used aside for a moment (since keeper formulas vary league to league) a random player's value in any year n+1 and each year beyond that is less than their value in year n because of the unpredictability of this sport. FF Players have a habit of looking at a player they like and assuming the best case scenario and pencil in 10-20% improvements per year for some number of years. Players get hurt, injured, change teams, have down years, all sorts of things that cannot be anticipated and destroy keeper value. When you factor in the keeper formula my league uses, you realize you should cash in on a top keeper whenever possible. I plan to keep data on the average number of times a player is kept in our league, and it wouldn't surprise me if it were close to 1. Of last years 36 keepers in our league, I anticipate that only 6 will be kept again this year (Cobb, Morris, Cameron, Vereen, Woodhead, Wilson). Of those, I can't say confidently that any will be kept again in 2015. Picks that looked fantastic a year ago have lost their sizzle. While others I didn't mention actually still present some value, I believe owners will move on to the next hot commodity since we are forced to choose 3.
Observation #2: There is a tendency to look toward next year too soon, avoid it. This might be specific to my league where poaching players for picks is common. My main goal is to always be competitive in the year we are in, while keeping an eye on the next. Rebuilding is for dynasty leagues. If your team looks like it has a few warts, deal a player with more keeper value in n+1 for a player with more actual value in year n. Or sell some middling draft pick for an underperforming player with a juicy schedule from a team that is looking toward next year. Get to the playoffs, from there anything can happen.
Observation #3: You can accumulate value by trading up in the draft if your league mates use a pick calculator to determine fair trades. I can't feel too guilty when someone approaches me with a trade offer of the 8th overall pick for the 20th overall + the 60th. Sure, the pick calculator says its a good deal for them but in actuality you need to adjust for the keepers whose ADP is higher than the picks in question. Actually I do feel guilty for doing this - why does it seem the rest of my league doesn't get this?
Observation #4: A 12th round draft pick is more or less equivalent to an 18th round draft pick. I'd have a hard time trading a 12 for an 18. But if I needed to throw in a 12 to close a deal knowing that I'd be down one pick and get an 18th added on the backend I'd do it in a heartbeat. Your pretty unlikely to hit on a worthwhile player in either round, but if you hit on the 18th rounder the keeper value is through the roof. I'd like to say more about this observation (and discuss how to value picks in general) but I just don't really have enough to go on yet. The 36 keepers in my league were distributed haphazardly from round 1 (charles) to round 16 (morris).
I'll add some more later. Would really like to hear from others who play in keeper leagues. Even if your rules are drastically different than mine I'm sure the discussion could unearth things I hadn't thought of.
Our rules (I'll try to limit these to rules that are relevant to the strategies discussed):
-3 keepers per year according to the formula: draft round - 2*number of years kept
-Undrafted players acquired off waivers can be kept at ADP
-In season trading of players for future picks is allowed and occurs often
-One IR spot
Observation #1: All keepers are declining assets, treat them as such. Putting the formula used aside for a moment (since keeper formulas vary league to league) a random player's value in any year n+1 and each year beyond that is less than their value in year n because of the unpredictability of this sport. FF Players have a habit of looking at a player they like and assuming the best case scenario and pencil in 10-20% improvements per year for some number of years. Players get hurt, injured, change teams, have down years, all sorts of things that cannot be anticipated and destroy keeper value. When you factor in the keeper formula my league uses, you realize you should cash in on a top keeper whenever possible. I plan to keep data on the average number of times a player is kept in our league, and it wouldn't surprise me if it were close to 1. Of last years 36 keepers in our league, I anticipate that only 6 will be kept again this year (Cobb, Morris, Cameron, Vereen, Woodhead, Wilson). Of those, I can't say confidently that any will be kept again in 2015. Picks that looked fantastic a year ago have lost their sizzle. While others I didn't mention actually still present some value, I believe owners will move on to the next hot commodity since we are forced to choose 3.
Observation #2: There is a tendency to look toward next year too soon, avoid it. This might be specific to my league where poaching players for picks is common. My main goal is to always be competitive in the year we are in, while keeping an eye on the next. Rebuilding is for dynasty leagues. If your team looks like it has a few warts, deal a player with more keeper value in n+1 for a player with more actual value in year n. Or sell some middling draft pick for an underperforming player with a juicy schedule from a team that is looking toward next year. Get to the playoffs, from there anything can happen.
Observation #3: You can accumulate value by trading up in the draft if your league mates use a pick calculator to determine fair trades. I can't feel too guilty when someone approaches me with a trade offer of the 8th overall pick for the 20th overall + the 60th. Sure, the pick calculator says its a good deal for them but in actuality you need to adjust for the keepers whose ADP is higher than the picks in question. Actually I do feel guilty for doing this - why does it seem the rest of my league doesn't get this?
Observation #4: A 12th round draft pick is more or less equivalent to an 18th round draft pick. I'd have a hard time trading a 12 for an 18. But if I needed to throw in a 12 to close a deal knowing that I'd be down one pick and get an 18th added on the backend I'd do it in a heartbeat. Your pretty unlikely to hit on a worthwhile player in either round, but if you hit on the 18th rounder the keeper value is through the roof. I'd like to say more about this observation (and discuss how to value picks in general) but I just don't really have enough to go on yet. The 36 keepers in my league were distributed haphazardly from round 1 (charles) to round 16 (morris).
I'll add some more later. Would really like to hear from others who play in keeper leagues. Even if your rules are drastically different than mine I'm sure the discussion could unearth things I hadn't thought of.
