Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Week 3 is here already. We took a big jump in people that joined the Oddsmaker thread this past week. This thread is actually an anti-betting thread if you have not figure it out already. We will see close to the same percentages as we did last week. I do the thread a little tongue and cheek but you are going to find that very few of our posters are going to be able to stay over 50% for any length or period of time. And any service that claims that they are 80% ATS or 10-1 on their locks of the year are for the most part liars! Don’t believe them and for sure don’t give them your money.
So far I have offered a little insight into the weekend games but this week I will focus on some stats that I think are quite important and those are the rushing yds allowed by the defenses and the ypc allowed as well. Sometimes you see a rushing defense that allows 100+ yds on the ground but only 3.1 ypc, and that’s the sign of a pretty good run defense. Other times you might see a team that only gives up 70 yards on the ground but 4.5 ypc, so the numbers can be deceiving sometimes. Let’s jump to the games and I will post the results after as well.
Jax at NYJETS (-2.5) (35): The Jets are allowing 5.1 ypc on the ground and Jax is avg 123 rushing and 4.5 ypc on offense. If the Jags simply run the ball and do it consistently they have a great shot to win the game. The Jags rush defense is a little suspect but the Jets only manage 2.7 ypc on offense! Add that CuMart is injured and I have a hard time seeing how the Jets are going to win this game. Take the Jags and the points.
JAX 20…NYJets 16
Tennessee at ST.LOUIS (-6.5) (46): The Rams are only giving up 58 yds rushing and Tennessee has 2 RB that are not really seizing the starting role. The Rams will pass at will in their home opener.
St. Louis 31…Tennessee 20
Oakland at PHILLY (-8) (46.5): This game could be a little closer than some might think. Philly is vulnerable a bit on the ground although SF could never exploit that on Sunday. Oakland is only giving up 3 ypc however Philly does not rush the ball all that much so it sort of makes a non factor. I probably pass on the game.
Philly 27….Oakland 21
Cincinnati (-3) at CHICAGO (39): The Bengals are rushing for 157 and are close to the top of the league. The fact they can pass opens those rushing lanes for the talented RB in their stable. Chicago was impressive last week in their opener however they haven’t seen an offense like the one that will take the field on Sunday. Cinci is 2-0 ATS this season. The Bengals are only giving up 86 yds rushing but they are yielding 5.4 ypc…that’s awful! Chicago is going to run all day on Sunday…and I think they can pull the upset here by shortening the game.
Chicago 21…Cincinnati 20
New Orleans at MINNESOTA (-4) (44): People are still betting on the Vikes? Apparently so. The Vikes rush defense is putrid right now giving up 4.5 ypc and 156 yds per game. I guess teams want to watch CPep sitting on the bench and are controlling the clock…smart. The Saints are avg 55 yds on the ground right now…that’s not very good. My gut says the Saints will win on Sunday but I have no stats to support this so I pass the game.
NO 26…Minnesota 23
Carolina (-3.5) at MIAMI (36.5): Both teams are allowing around 70-80 on the ground and 3.o ypc on defense…expect LOW SCORING imo. They both run between 110-120 yds per game on offense. Miami should really be favored as the home team. Take Miami and the points or pass the game. Miami did play OK last week and were down only 10-7 going into the 4th with the Jets. They did not fall nearly as bad as teams like the Niners.
Miami 16….Carolina 13
Cleveland at INDY (-13.5) (47): Believe it or not the Colts are giving up almost 4.6 ypc…teams need to try and keep running on them. I think the Colts have a great pass rush and a better secondary than many think so teams eventually are going to just lineup and run right at them…Cleveland isn’t one of them though.
INDY 38…Cleveland 14
Atlanta at BUFFALO: OFF THE BOARD
Tampa Bay (-3.5) at GREEN BAY (38): The Bucs have enough thru the air to make Green Bay loosen up on the ground. The Pack are giving up an unbelievable 2.9 ypc and only 78 yds per game. I attribute that to mostly the fact teams want to pass on them. Cleveland had no problem doing it. The Bucs are leading the NFC with 168 yds per game on the ground…and they look good doing it. I thought their OL was supposed to be horrendous this year. If the Bucs were playing at home they might be 7 point favorites. For right now you have to respect their defense which allows only 40 yds on the ground per game. They shutdown Willis McGahee completely. And their pass defense is among the best too.
Tampa Bay 24…Green Bay 10
Arizona at SEATTLE (-6.5) (42): The Cards cannot run the ball and Seattle can. The Seahawks are avg 4.9 ypc and the Cardinals are giving 4.9 ypc from their defense. I expect this to be a blowout for Seattle.
Seattle 37…Arizona 14
New England at PITTSBURGH (-3) (42): Usually I just say how much I’ll enjoy watching it and pass…however, the Pats seem unable to run the ball right now. 2.4 ypc! YUCK! The Steelers however are giving almost 4.3 ypc…that’s right, the AMAZING STEELER DEFENSE! I think I’ll pass but I do expect Pittsburgh to try and seek revenge for last year.
Pittsburgh 20…New England 17
Dallas (-6.5) at San Fran (40.5): Pass
Dallas 28…San Fran 21
NYGiants at SAN DIEGO (-6) (42.5): The Bolts are only giving up 3.5 ypc on the ground even thought they are giving up over 100 per game. The Giants have not given up much rushing at all and I expect them to cover even if they do not win the game. Why is SD favored by 6? I might have to walk thru that trapdoor.
San Diego 16…NY Giants 14
KC at DENVER (-2.5) (48): Wow…the Chiefs are the dogs here? KC is giving up only 64 yds on the ground and Denver has been mustering 87 yds on offense, rushing. KC has racked an avg of 161 per week and I think Oakland was a little better at stopping the run than people think…I can’t find a reason not to like the Chiefs on Monday Night…
KC 27…Denver 17
Here are the results from last week. Repeaters will have their results in parentheses however I want to point out that many folks declined to try again…I understand…it’s tough to hang yourself out there in front of the entire FBG community. Also many people took the SD-Den game and since the line was 3 I counted both sides as losses as I am not keeping track of pushes…they’re losses on most tickets in the gambling world anyways.
3-0
Angry Beavers (4-2)…way to rebound
CYUNVme
Dhamon Shadowhawk
Shomethemoney
Winning IS Everything
8% of the predictors got a perfect 3-0
2-1
MOP (4-2)
4xChamps (4-2)
Abrecher
Bass N Brew (5-1)
Bloom (5-1)
Boot to the Head
Coachg-ride
Dude
Isotopes (4-2)
Jeremyx13
JWVDCW (3-3)
Kclien (4-2)
Ko-Jack
Leo2228
Marklot
NapoleanD (3-3)
Napolean Dynamite
Oaktown
Pimpin Aint Easy
RobertPedro22
RumForlt
Rzrback77 (3-3)
Steelers4Life (4-2)
Zigg
24 out of 63 made it to 66% ATS this week. That’s 38% of the FBG posters which is actually pretty good. Had these been played as parlays however they would have all lost.
1-2
Abiding Dude
Alonso De Cordoba (2-4)
Bankerguy (2-4)
Chase Stuart
Chihawk
Fatness
Gamblor (2-4)
Gigantor (2-4)
Hamster13
Homer J Simpson (3-3)
Hutchins929
IanTucker
Iwannabeacowboy!
J3r3m3y (2-4)
Jpeace121
Mandersen1 (2-4)
Mapmaker (1-5)
Norseman
Packer7 (3-3)
Pizzatyme
Raidersfan
Reg
Scoobus
SuperWade2
Tackling Dummies
Tecumseh (2-4)
Unlucky
Wannabee
And finally our 0-3 group.
Benherover00
David Yudkin (0-6)…please keep posting…if you can keep going 0-3 we may have something here.
Kirby
Makwaloon (2-4)…rough week
Urinal Mint (0-6)…see Yudkin…you two may need your own talk show.
Wheelhouse (1-5)…much better at Dynasty League Football
Disqualified because of time deadline or edited the spreads I put up…Fenwah and everyone that posted after #79…no biggie…I am going to extend the deadline this week a few hours.
My top 3 will be posted b4 the 8:00PM Deadline Friday Night. I am extending the deadline from 3:00 till 8:00 so that should help everyone. Have fun with this and remember...always protect your unit!
So far I have offered a little insight into the weekend games but this week I will focus on some stats that I think are quite important and those are the rushing yds allowed by the defenses and the ypc allowed as well. Sometimes you see a rushing defense that allows 100+ yds on the ground but only 3.1 ypc, and that’s the sign of a pretty good run defense. Other times you might see a team that only gives up 70 yards on the ground but 4.5 ypc, so the numbers can be deceiving sometimes. Let’s jump to the games and I will post the results after as well.
Jax at NYJETS (-2.5) (35): The Jets are allowing 5.1 ypc on the ground and Jax is avg 123 rushing and 4.5 ypc on offense. If the Jags simply run the ball and do it consistently they have a great shot to win the game. The Jags rush defense is a little suspect but the Jets only manage 2.7 ypc on offense! Add that CuMart is injured and I have a hard time seeing how the Jets are going to win this game. Take the Jags and the points.
JAX 20…NYJets 16
Tennessee at ST.LOUIS (-6.5) (46): The Rams are only giving up 58 yds rushing and Tennessee has 2 RB that are not really seizing the starting role. The Rams will pass at will in their home opener.
St. Louis 31…Tennessee 20
Oakland at PHILLY (-8) (46.5): This game could be a little closer than some might think. Philly is vulnerable a bit on the ground although SF could never exploit that on Sunday. Oakland is only giving up 3 ypc however Philly does not rush the ball all that much so it sort of makes a non factor. I probably pass on the game.
Philly 27….Oakland 21
Cincinnati (-3) at CHICAGO (39): The Bengals are rushing for 157 and are close to the top of the league. The fact they can pass opens those rushing lanes for the talented RB in their stable. Chicago was impressive last week in their opener however they haven’t seen an offense like the one that will take the field on Sunday. Cinci is 2-0 ATS this season. The Bengals are only giving up 86 yds rushing but they are yielding 5.4 ypc…that’s awful! Chicago is going to run all day on Sunday…and I think they can pull the upset here by shortening the game.
Chicago 21…Cincinnati 20
New Orleans at MINNESOTA (-4) (44): People are still betting on the Vikes? Apparently so. The Vikes rush defense is putrid right now giving up 4.5 ypc and 156 yds per game. I guess teams want to watch CPep sitting on the bench and are controlling the clock…smart. The Saints are avg 55 yds on the ground right now…that’s not very good. My gut says the Saints will win on Sunday but I have no stats to support this so I pass the game.
NO 26…Minnesota 23
Carolina (-3.5) at MIAMI (36.5): Both teams are allowing around 70-80 on the ground and 3.o ypc on defense…expect LOW SCORING imo. They both run between 110-120 yds per game on offense. Miami should really be favored as the home team. Take Miami and the points or pass the game. Miami did play OK last week and were down only 10-7 going into the 4th with the Jets. They did not fall nearly as bad as teams like the Niners.
Miami 16….Carolina 13
Cleveland at INDY (-13.5) (47): Believe it or not the Colts are giving up almost 4.6 ypc…teams need to try and keep running on them. I think the Colts have a great pass rush and a better secondary than many think so teams eventually are going to just lineup and run right at them…Cleveland isn’t one of them though.
INDY 38…Cleveland 14
Atlanta at BUFFALO: OFF THE BOARD
Tampa Bay (-3.5) at GREEN BAY (38): The Bucs have enough thru the air to make Green Bay loosen up on the ground. The Pack are giving up an unbelievable 2.9 ypc and only 78 yds per game. I attribute that to mostly the fact teams want to pass on them. Cleveland had no problem doing it. The Bucs are leading the NFC with 168 yds per game on the ground…and they look good doing it. I thought their OL was supposed to be horrendous this year. If the Bucs were playing at home they might be 7 point favorites. For right now you have to respect their defense which allows only 40 yds on the ground per game. They shutdown Willis McGahee completely. And their pass defense is among the best too.
Tampa Bay 24…Green Bay 10
Arizona at SEATTLE (-6.5) (42): The Cards cannot run the ball and Seattle can. The Seahawks are avg 4.9 ypc and the Cardinals are giving 4.9 ypc from their defense. I expect this to be a blowout for Seattle.
Seattle 37…Arizona 14
New England at PITTSBURGH (-3) (42): Usually I just say how much I’ll enjoy watching it and pass…however, the Pats seem unable to run the ball right now. 2.4 ypc! YUCK! The Steelers however are giving almost 4.3 ypc…that’s right, the AMAZING STEELER DEFENSE! I think I’ll pass but I do expect Pittsburgh to try and seek revenge for last year.
Pittsburgh 20…New England 17
Dallas (-6.5) at San Fran (40.5): Pass
Dallas 28…San Fran 21
NYGiants at SAN DIEGO (-6) (42.5): The Bolts are only giving up 3.5 ypc on the ground even thought they are giving up over 100 per game. The Giants have not given up much rushing at all and I expect them to cover even if they do not win the game. Why is SD favored by 6? I might have to walk thru that trapdoor.
San Diego 16…NY Giants 14
KC at DENVER (-2.5) (48): Wow…the Chiefs are the dogs here? KC is giving up only 64 yds on the ground and Denver has been mustering 87 yds on offense, rushing. KC has racked an avg of 161 per week and I think Oakland was a little better at stopping the run than people think…I can’t find a reason not to like the Chiefs on Monday Night…
KC 27…Denver 17
Here are the results from last week. Repeaters will have their results in parentheses however I want to point out that many folks declined to try again…I understand…it’s tough to hang yourself out there in front of the entire FBG community. Also many people took the SD-Den game and since the line was 3 I counted both sides as losses as I am not keeping track of pushes…they’re losses on most tickets in the gambling world anyways.
3-0
Angry Beavers (4-2)…way to rebound
CYUNVme
Dhamon Shadowhawk
Shomethemoney
Winning IS Everything
8% of the predictors got a perfect 3-0
2-1
MOP (4-2)
4xChamps (4-2)
Abrecher
Bass N Brew (5-1)
Bloom (5-1)
Boot to the Head
Coachg-ride
Dude
Isotopes (4-2)
Jeremyx13
JWVDCW (3-3)
Kclien (4-2)
Ko-Jack
Leo2228
Marklot
NapoleanD (3-3)
Napolean Dynamite
Oaktown
Pimpin Aint Easy
RobertPedro22
RumForlt
Rzrback77 (3-3)
Steelers4Life (4-2)
Zigg
24 out of 63 made it to 66% ATS this week. That’s 38% of the FBG posters which is actually pretty good. Had these been played as parlays however they would have all lost.
1-2
Abiding Dude
Alonso De Cordoba (2-4)
Bankerguy (2-4)
Chase Stuart
Chihawk
Fatness
Gamblor (2-4)
Gigantor (2-4)
Hamster13
Homer J Simpson (3-3)
Hutchins929
IanTucker
Iwannabeacowboy!
J3r3m3y (2-4)
Jpeace121
Mandersen1 (2-4)
Mapmaker (1-5)
Norseman
Packer7 (3-3)
Pizzatyme
Raidersfan
Reg
Scoobus
SuperWade2
Tackling Dummies
Tecumseh (2-4)
Unlucky
Wannabee
And finally our 0-3 group.
Benherover00
David Yudkin (0-6)…please keep posting…if you can keep going 0-3 we may have something here.
Kirby
Makwaloon (2-4)…rough week
Urinal Mint (0-6)…see Yudkin…you two may need your own talk show.
Wheelhouse (1-5)…much better at Dynasty League Football
Disqualified because of time deadline or edited the spreads I put up…Fenwah and everyone that posted after #79…no biggie…I am going to extend the deadline this week a few hours.
My top 3 will be posted b4 the 8:00PM Deadline Friday Night. I am extending the deadline from 3:00 till 8:00 so that should help everyone. Have fun with this and remember...always protect your unit!
Last edited by a moderator:
Miami +3.5KC +2.5CIN -3
. Sticking to Over/Under's 20-12 this year.Sorry not time for commentary this week...although after posting a 2-4 record for this constest, I'm sure no one cares what I have to say. I wouldn't. Jac/NYJ (35) I'll take the UNDER.Ari/Sea (42) OVERNYG/SD (42.5) UNDERGood luck all.
