Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
OK last week I went 1-2 and am now a paltry 2-4 ATS on the season.
I write this thread and carry out this exercise basically to show you all how ridiculous the locks of the week are in the NFL. Now there are guys on this board who actually feel they can beat Vegas with the NFL games. I myself have grown pretty sour on the NFL for quite some time and have really moved over towards college ball. The absolute worst bet i see people make is the 3 team teasers they like to pull out, those tickets are almost always losers.
I am going to highlight a couple of rules that are either being ignored or just glossed over. You must must must have your picks in no later than 8:00PST on Friday. Anything after that simply gets dumped in the trash sort of speak. I absolutely do it to limit the numbers every week...I have a hard enough time tracking the 100-150 every week right now.
I am still adding up last week's numbers but I know if I don't get this up you guys are start making up your own thread. So i will update this again tonight.
We had people that went 3-0 last week, go 0-3 this week. I think the best we have thru 2 weeks are some poeple that have gone 2-1, and 2-1...but I will double check that and post it later in the thread. Have a great weekend everyone. Let's crank it up.
NY Jets at Buffalo (-6) 34.5
Buffalo is avg 103 yds passing per game…per game! The Jets are giving up about 225 a game but they have allowed 1 TD and picked off 4 Int on the season…and they are only allowing the opposing QBs to complete 49% of their passes so far. Buffalo is avg 3.6 ypc…the Jets are giving up 3.6 ypc. I really see no reason Buffalo should be favored by 6 other than they beat the Phins last week. I like NY to win the game outright so I’ll take the points all day long.
New York Jets 20…Buffalo 16
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-2) (41.5)
The Bengals have the air assault to attack the Steelers secondary. Problem is they haven’t got a lot of healthy WR in which to do it. Bengals are playing better on defense. I want to pick them but Pittsburgh is having it’s manhood tested early this season. I will watxh this game but probably pass the line.
Cinci 21…Pittsburgh 20
Jax at Indy (-7) (44)
Indy has no defense right now. And Freeney may not even play in the game. Jax has shown an attitude when they play Indy that they can stand up to them. It’s a short week for Jax, had to get on a plane and fly up for the game. Colts are giving up 2.5 TDs thru the air per game and teams are completing 70% of their passes…also allowing a whopping 5.8 ypc…YIKES!!! Now jax does not have the best offense in the world but something tells me they can run the ball. If Taylor were faster like Tiki I might actually pick Jax to win the game straight up…Jax has allowed 1 TD and nailed the Steelers and Cowboys for 5 Ints…OK OK OK I’m gonna pinch my nose and jump in with the Jags and assume they can keep the game close.
Jax 23…Indy 21
Tennessee at Miami (-11) (35)
I like Miami to do whatever they please on Sunday. They are 0-2, mad, and maybe since the Titans cannot form a pass rush…just maybe even CPepp can burn them all over the field if he has all day to throw. Look for a couple of big connections to Chris Chambers on Sunday and Miami will win this game.
Miami 28…Tennessee 7
Washington (-4) at Houston (37.5)
Houston has played McNabb and Manning so I sort of have to take their passing defense with a grain of salt but allowing 350 yds thru the air…6 TDs…close to 70% completion rate…even Brunell can pick this apart, no? As long as Portis is somewhere on the field I like the Skins to win the game fairly easily.
Washington 24…Houston 14
Chicago (-3.5) at Minnesota (35)
I am sure a lot of people are going to bet da Bears dis weekend…however I want to throw a few stats out there and see what you think. The Vikings are only allowing about 150 yds a game thru the air. Thye are giving up 4.0 ypc on the ground but teams have not really been sticking with pounding it on Minnesota much. Chicago has looked great thru the air so far but they haven’t seen what is waiting for them on Sunday inside the Metrodome…also Rex Grossman blew out a knee in Minnesota as well…this is not a fun place for him. I think that .5 point on the line just might make the difference here…could even be a mild upset 3 weeks in a row for the Vikes. This will be one of the hardest hitting games of the weekend.
Chicago 17…Minnesota 14
Carolina (-3) at Tampa Bay (35)
At 2-4 ATS on the season and all 4 of those losses coming against these 2 teams…I’ll pass.
Tampa Bay 3…Carolina 2
Green Bay at Detroit (-6.5) (39)
I wanted to like the Pack in this game as they can throw the ball and Detroit cannot really defend it too well…however the Pack are even worse at defending the pass. I sort of like the over in this game. The Lions are allowing almost an 80% completion rate on their defense…Great Knights of Columbus!!! Green bay is allowing about 66% and almost 300 yds a game.
Detroit 27…Green Bay 24
Baltimore (-6.5) at Cleveland (33)
If Art Shell is getting booed to death, Romeo Crennell should be close behind. Browns are awful. They are getting beat thru the air and they are losing starters in their secondary…problem is McNair has not looked real sharp in his 1st couple of games…more managing the game than anything. The Ravens are playing out of their minds right now on defense. They are playing a real tight 46 package and it is stifling. You have to bet the Ravens or pass the game.
Baltimore 20…Cleveland 7
St Louis at Arizona (-5) (45)
This line just looks wrong to me. I think St Louis can win the game. The Rams are only allowing a 50% completion rate on defense and have allowed 1 passing TD, the one you all saw to Antonio Bryant last week. I like the Rams to win this game because their weakness, the run (5.0 ypc), doesn’t seem to matter here. The Cards cannot run the ball and once they are one dimensional I think it will play into the Rams hands.
St Louis 24…Arizona 20
NY Giants at Seattle (-4) (44)
The Giants get off the Philly high and travel cross country to play a very tough defensive team in Seattle? They are going to get waxed in this game…imagine what the line would be had they just folded in Philly…they would be staring 0-3 in the face this week. Their defense is pretty pitiful right now. Their run D is actually OK but over 300 yds a game thru the air just won’t get it done.
Seattle 27…NY Giants 17
Philly (-6) at San Fran (42)
Fun game to watch but I am gonna pass on taking any action on it. I believe Philly is the better team but laying 6…they probably will cover the more I think about it…bad loss last week, they are going to want to get that taste out of their mouth.
Philly 31…San Fran 21
Denver at New England (-6.5) (39)
Denver’s defense has not allowed a TD this year…I repeat, Denver’s defense has not allowed a TD this year. They have a great secondary and NE doesn’t have the WR to do much to them…Denver has allowed close to 4.5 ypc and God knows the Pats will put them to the test on Sunday. NE rush defense is really good…but Denver can run on anybody…and the pats passing defense has been pretty avg at best…Plummer has struggled but he will get things turned around on Sunday.
Denver 20…New England 17
Atlanta (-3.5) at NO (43)
Alright!!! Football is back in New Orleans and God bless those people in Louisiana cause they deserve some entertainment. That Superdome is gonna be a rockin when the Saints COME MARCHING IN!!! Sing it with me…
Oh when the Saints
Come marching in
Oh when the Saints
Come marching in…
Oh I want to be in that number
When the Saints…go…marching…IN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I can smell the Jambalaya from here. Go out there and kick the Falcons’ tail up and down that Superdome on MNF…Reggie Bush has not lost a regular season game he has played in since 2003…how are the Texans doing? Oops!
It’s gonna take a lot for them to beat Atlanta and all the stats favor the Falcons but I can’t spoil the party so let her rip.
New Orleans 24…Atlanta 21 as Reggie Bush streaks down the sideline off a screen pass and runs right out thru the tunnel as time expires…or something like that.
Oddsmaker reality score is Atlanta 24…New Orleans 13
My top3 plays this week will be
NY Jets +6
Denver +6.5
St Louis +5
Other plays I like as well
Seattle -3.5
GB/Det over 39
Washington -4
I write this thread and carry out this exercise basically to show you all how ridiculous the locks of the week are in the NFL. Now there are guys on this board who actually feel they can beat Vegas with the NFL games. I myself have grown pretty sour on the NFL for quite some time and have really moved over towards college ball. The absolute worst bet i see people make is the 3 team teasers they like to pull out, those tickets are almost always losers.
I am going to highlight a couple of rules that are either being ignored or just glossed over. You must must must have your picks in no later than 8:00PST on Friday. Anything after that simply gets dumped in the trash sort of speak. I absolutely do it to limit the numbers every week...I have a hard enough time tracking the 100-150 every week right now.
I am still adding up last week's numbers but I know if I don't get this up you guys are start making up your own thread. So i will update this again tonight.
We had people that went 3-0 last week, go 0-3 this week. I think the best we have thru 2 weeks are some poeple that have gone 2-1, and 2-1...but I will double check that and post it later in the thread. Have a great weekend everyone. Let's crank it up.
NY Jets at Buffalo (-6) 34.5
Buffalo is avg 103 yds passing per game…per game! The Jets are giving up about 225 a game but they have allowed 1 TD and picked off 4 Int on the season…and they are only allowing the opposing QBs to complete 49% of their passes so far. Buffalo is avg 3.6 ypc…the Jets are giving up 3.6 ypc. I really see no reason Buffalo should be favored by 6 other than they beat the Phins last week. I like NY to win the game outright so I’ll take the points all day long.
New York Jets 20…Buffalo 16
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-2) (41.5)
The Bengals have the air assault to attack the Steelers secondary. Problem is they haven’t got a lot of healthy WR in which to do it. Bengals are playing better on defense. I want to pick them but Pittsburgh is having it’s manhood tested early this season. I will watxh this game but probably pass the line.
Cinci 21…Pittsburgh 20
Jax at Indy (-7) (44)
Indy has no defense right now. And Freeney may not even play in the game. Jax has shown an attitude when they play Indy that they can stand up to them. It’s a short week for Jax, had to get on a plane and fly up for the game. Colts are giving up 2.5 TDs thru the air per game and teams are completing 70% of their passes…also allowing a whopping 5.8 ypc…YIKES!!! Now jax does not have the best offense in the world but something tells me they can run the ball. If Taylor were faster like Tiki I might actually pick Jax to win the game straight up…Jax has allowed 1 TD and nailed the Steelers and Cowboys for 5 Ints…OK OK OK I’m gonna pinch my nose and jump in with the Jags and assume they can keep the game close.
Jax 23…Indy 21
Tennessee at Miami (-11) (35)
I like Miami to do whatever they please on Sunday. They are 0-2, mad, and maybe since the Titans cannot form a pass rush…just maybe even CPepp can burn them all over the field if he has all day to throw. Look for a couple of big connections to Chris Chambers on Sunday and Miami will win this game.
Miami 28…Tennessee 7
Washington (-4) at Houston (37.5)
Houston has played McNabb and Manning so I sort of have to take their passing defense with a grain of salt but allowing 350 yds thru the air…6 TDs…close to 70% completion rate…even Brunell can pick this apart, no? As long as Portis is somewhere on the field I like the Skins to win the game fairly easily.
Washington 24…Houston 14
Chicago (-3.5) at Minnesota (35)
I am sure a lot of people are going to bet da Bears dis weekend…however I want to throw a few stats out there and see what you think. The Vikings are only allowing about 150 yds a game thru the air. Thye are giving up 4.0 ypc on the ground but teams have not really been sticking with pounding it on Minnesota much. Chicago has looked great thru the air so far but they haven’t seen what is waiting for them on Sunday inside the Metrodome…also Rex Grossman blew out a knee in Minnesota as well…this is not a fun place for him. I think that .5 point on the line just might make the difference here…could even be a mild upset 3 weeks in a row for the Vikes. This will be one of the hardest hitting games of the weekend.
Chicago 17…Minnesota 14
Carolina (-3) at Tampa Bay (35)
At 2-4 ATS on the season and all 4 of those losses coming against these 2 teams…I’ll pass.
Tampa Bay 3…Carolina 2
Green Bay at Detroit (-6.5) (39)
I wanted to like the Pack in this game as they can throw the ball and Detroit cannot really defend it too well…however the Pack are even worse at defending the pass. I sort of like the over in this game. The Lions are allowing almost an 80% completion rate on their defense…Great Knights of Columbus!!! Green bay is allowing about 66% and almost 300 yds a game.
Detroit 27…Green Bay 24
Baltimore (-6.5) at Cleveland (33)
If Art Shell is getting booed to death, Romeo Crennell should be close behind. Browns are awful. They are getting beat thru the air and they are losing starters in their secondary…problem is McNair has not looked real sharp in his 1st couple of games…more managing the game than anything. The Ravens are playing out of their minds right now on defense. They are playing a real tight 46 package and it is stifling. You have to bet the Ravens or pass the game.
Baltimore 20…Cleveland 7
St Louis at Arizona (-5) (45)
This line just looks wrong to me. I think St Louis can win the game. The Rams are only allowing a 50% completion rate on defense and have allowed 1 passing TD, the one you all saw to Antonio Bryant last week. I like the Rams to win this game because their weakness, the run (5.0 ypc), doesn’t seem to matter here. The Cards cannot run the ball and once they are one dimensional I think it will play into the Rams hands.
St Louis 24…Arizona 20
NY Giants at Seattle (-4) (44)
The Giants get off the Philly high and travel cross country to play a very tough defensive team in Seattle? They are going to get waxed in this game…imagine what the line would be had they just folded in Philly…they would be staring 0-3 in the face this week. Their defense is pretty pitiful right now. Their run D is actually OK but over 300 yds a game thru the air just won’t get it done.
Seattle 27…NY Giants 17
Philly (-6) at San Fran (42)
Fun game to watch but I am gonna pass on taking any action on it. I believe Philly is the better team but laying 6…they probably will cover the more I think about it…bad loss last week, they are going to want to get that taste out of their mouth.
Philly 31…San Fran 21
Denver at New England (-6.5) (39)
Denver’s defense has not allowed a TD this year…I repeat, Denver’s defense has not allowed a TD this year. They have a great secondary and NE doesn’t have the WR to do much to them…Denver has allowed close to 4.5 ypc and God knows the Pats will put them to the test on Sunday. NE rush defense is really good…but Denver can run on anybody…and the pats passing defense has been pretty avg at best…Plummer has struggled but he will get things turned around on Sunday.
Denver 20…New England 17
Atlanta (-3.5) at NO (43)
Alright!!! Football is back in New Orleans and God bless those people in Louisiana cause they deserve some entertainment. That Superdome is gonna be a rockin when the Saints COME MARCHING IN!!! Sing it with me…
Oh when the Saints
Come marching in
Oh when the Saints
Come marching in…
Oh I want to be in that number
When the Saints…go…marching…IN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I can smell the Jambalaya from here. Go out there and kick the Falcons’ tail up and down that Superdome on MNF…Reggie Bush has not lost a regular season game he has played in since 2003…how are the Texans doing? Oops!
It’s gonna take a lot for them to beat Atlanta and all the stats favor the Falcons but I can’t spoil the party so let her rip.
New Orleans 24…Atlanta 21 as Reggie Bush streaks down the sideline off a screen pass and runs right out thru the tunnel as time expires…or something like that.
Oddsmaker reality score is Atlanta 24…New Orleans 13
My top3 plays this week will be
NY Jets +6
Denver +6.5
St Louis +5
Other plays I like as well
Seattle -3.5
GB/Det over 39
Washington -4
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