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Oddsmaker Week 4 (1 Viewer)

Ministry of Pain

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Hey folks, I usually am ready to roll by Thursday Morning and unfortunately this week I am not so here's what we will do this week. I am going to show the games and spreads for the week. These will be the spreads we use. I will have the analysis part done tonight sometime and then I'll update it tomorrow. I will also extend the 8pm EST deadline for picks to Saturday at the same time. I think that's fair for everyone. You do not have to put in your picks yet but if you want to start talking about the lines then let's do that.

Update for Friday: A very lucky Oddsmaker went 3-0 last week to salvage himself to 5-4 ATS on the season. Also all 3 of the other plays I mentioned were strong also hit. And I won my office pool this week as well…I could no wrong. So this week I am sure to flounder thru the NFL games…let’s have a look and see what I can do to screw up 3 good ones this week.

Indy (-9) at NY Jets (46.5)

I loved the Jets last week…this week it would be hard to pick them again. Indy is letting any person run right thru their defense. In fact I am not sure they even have a defense…it’s amazing they are 3-0 but they look like the same ole Colts, even worse. But they have that easy schedule and unfortunately the Jets will not be able to take advantage of the rush defense of the Colts…but they will be able to keep it slightly closer than some think. Mangini coached for Bellichek and Peyton never had any success against him.

Indy 31…NY Jets 23

The over is interesting here.

San Diego (-2.5) at Baltimore

2 awesome defenses. I’ll pass on betting the game but I am rooting for the Chargers in this one.

San Diego 17…Baltimore 13

Minnesota (-1) at Buffalo

I like it. Laying 1 point for the Vikes who have faced some pretty good competition. I still am not buying the Bills this season. Look for a healthy dose of Chester Taylor in this one.

Minnesota 23…Buffalo 13

Dallas (-9.5) at Tennessee (37)

Titans will get run off the field. Very simply put.

Dallas 28…Tennessee 10

SF at Kansas City (-7) (40.5)

I like the over in this one. SF can score and LJ will be run thru the A gaps all day long.

KC 27…SF 24

NO at Carolina (-7.5) (41.5)

If you look at the stats NO is a decent team. They can beat the Panthers and Reggie Bush will be a big big factor in this game…he is just starting to figure out what he can do in that offense. I like him to get loose and I also think NO will lead for most of the game. NO could get a letdown after MNF but really they are on cloud 9 right now and they believe in themselves.

New Orleans 21…Carolina 20

Arizona at Atlanta (-7) (40.5)

The Falcons are the better team but Fitz, Boldin, and BJ on turf…oh my! Game will be closer than some think.

Atlanta 24…Arizona 23

Miami (-3.5) at Houston

So far, you just bet against Houston and you win money this season. They let the Skins with a very so so offense run and pass all over them. Chambers and Brown will have good games this week. Miami will go to 2-2.

Miami 21…Houston 14

Detroit at St Louis (-5.5) (43.5)

The Lions just can’t beat anyone right now. St Louis is lucky to be 2-1 right now…but I’d rather get lucky than be good I guess.

St Louis 24…Detroit 17

New England at Cincinnati (-6) (45.5)

(COUGH COUGH COUGH!!!)...wait a minute…(COUGH COUGH COUGH!!!) Let me get this str8…the Bengals after beating the Steelers in a fashion like the Giants did the week before and were handed the game by Philly…they win a game like that on the road, and now they go home and will blow out the Patriots on Sunday??? Let me explain why the Pats lost on Sunday. THEY PLAYED A REALLY GOOD TEAM IN DENVER!!! The Broncos have a tremendous defense right now…the WR form NE can’t do much against them till it was very late in the game. Look for the Bengals to get that punch in the mouth. Maroney and Brady will slice and dice a very suspect defense IMO. Beating Pittsburgh did not impress me…should they beat the Pats soundly at home, I’ll start to believe…but it isn’t gonna happen so don’t worry.

New England 27…Cincinnati 24

Jax (-3) at Washington (34)

Everyone looks good against Houston. The Skins have their hands full. Jax is a sound team that should have beaten the Colts. I expect a low scoring affair and actually a push in the game.

Jax 17…Washington 14

Cleveland (-2.5) at Oakland (33.5)

Game of the week right? If I have to watch anything more than the highlights or lowlights in this one its too much.

Cleveland 19…Oakland 17

Seattle at Chicago (-3.5) (34.5)

More fun to watch than bet. I can give you a bunch of reasons why either one of these teams can win the game.

Chicago 20…Seattle 17

Green Bay at Philly (-11) (48)

Eagles will run the Pack off the field. I expect a lot of garbage time in this one.

Philly 37…Green Bay 20

My 3 picks for the week.

NE +6

Indy/NYJ 46.5 Over

Minnesota -1

Other games I like this weekend

Miami -3.5

New Orleans +7.5

Dallas -9.5

Have a great weekend and good luck.

I will also try and give an update of where folks are at. I appreciate those that are keeping score of themselves.

 
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1 - 2 last week due to Baltimore and Atlanta 5 - 4 total so far.

New England just did not look that great against Buffalo or Denver. I don't know if the Bengals can defend the pass as well, or if Brady has started to feel more comfortable. Good to see Caldwell and Gabriel making an impact. But at this point the Bengals are just rolling. Unless we see dramatic improvement in NE offense the Bengals should be able to win by at least 7. I don't know that I would definitely pick this game though, there has to be others that are better.

I know Minnesota is going to Buffalo, but the way they played against Chicago and the way Buffalo played at home last week I do not think it matters. Minnesota should win this one easily. They are the real deal this year with very good defense, and a balanced offense. Buffalo still has a ways to go. I really like taking the Vikings here.

I think Carolina wins the NO game, after the Saints' emotional Monday nighter followed by a short week and some travel on top of that. But I don't like laying 7.5 points on just that. Granted Smith is back, and one could expect him to continue to become more involved in the offense, unless of course there is a set back. If he can play all game and not have any problems I really like him against the NO secondary. I will probably stay away from this one.

I cannot believe KC and Huard are favored by 7!?!?

I like Seattle to continue to show why they are the NFC favorites by dominating with their defense and getting enough through the air to beat Chicago outright.

And Cleveland should get an easy win in Oakland.

The other game I like is San Diego -2.5 against Baltimore. San Diego's defense should be able to cause enough problems to the struggling McNair to win going away.

 
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Just in case I am not able to get in here tomorrow I will throw my picks in. I am 5-4 on the year to date.

St. Louis -5 1/2. I think they will slap a beatdown on Detroit and Jackson will prove to Martz that he can be a 100 yard 2 TD RB.

Buffalo/Minn 34 1/2 OVER. I think there will be just enough scoring here to cover this.

Buffalo +1. I am liking Buffalo this week. They put up MAD yards last week and look to convert some of that into points this week. I do not like Minn this week.

Those are my picks for now...............

 
6-3 overall (2-1 in each week), and my picks for this week are as follows:

Arizona @ Atlanta OVER 40.5

New England @ Cincinnati (-6)

San Diego (-2.5) @ Baltimore

 
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Ministry of Pain said:
Hey folks, I usually am ready to roll by Thursday Morning and unfortunately this week I am not so here's what we will do this week. I am going to show the games and spreads for the week. These will be the spreads we use. I will have the analysis part done tonight sometime and then I'll update it tomorrow. I will also extend the 8pm EST deadline for picks to Saturday at the same time. I think that's fair for everyone. You do not have to put in your picks yet but if you want to start talking about the lines then let's do that. I would really lik to hear about a few of these games from you all. MN/Buff, Cin/NE, and NO/Car are 3 games I am really zoning in on and would like to hear from folks about.Here are the spreadsIndy (-9) at NYJets (46.5)San Diego (-2.5) at Baltimore (33.5)Minnesota (-1) at Buffalo (34.5)Dallas (-9.5) at Tennessee (37)San Fran at KC (-7) (40.5)NO at Carolina (-7.5) (41.5)Arizona at Atlanta (-7) (40.5)Miami (-3.5) at Houston (40.5)Detroit at St Louis (-5.5) (43.5)NE at Cinci (-6) (45.5)JAX (-3) at Washington (34)Cleveland (-2.5) at Oakland (33.5)Seattle at Chicago (-3.5) (34.5)Green Bay at Philly (-11) (48)I will also try and give an update of where folks are at. I appreciate those that are keeping score of themselves.
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4-2 this season (I started week 2)After a perfect 3-0 in week 2, things came crashing back down to reality in week 3 going 1-2. Week 3 is all but forgotten as I concentrate my wisdom on week 4.Panther's -7.5I'm actually going to this game, so it should be fun. Carolina owns NO folks. NO had a short week, and I think this will be a statement game for the KittyKats.Carolina - 27NO - 14Cinci - 6Please tell me this is a misprint? NE is not playing well, and Cinci beat up the defending champs last week ON THE ROAD!!. I look for more of the same this week. Cinci is good. REAL GOOD...Cinci 30NE 17Atlanta - 7They are playing at home and they are out to prove last week was a fluke. Zona has Kurt Warner who may be playing his last game this year.Atlanta 24Zona 14
 
3-5-1 for the season...

Cincy - peaking while NE is struggling

Minnesota - solid team against a inconsistant Buffalo

Indy - i predict a long day for pennington

 
Man having a bad year 1-8 so far

If you want to win bet the opposite of me

Hear we go let turn this thing around

Dallas -9.5

ATL -7

Cinn -6

 
First time this year so im 0-0

here it goes.

AZ @ ATL- I TAKE AZ AND FEEL GOOD ABOUT IT +7

NEXT PICK IS A 5 STAR LOCKDOWN

SF @ KC - I TAKE KC ALL DAY AND TWICE ON SUNDAY.. EASY, EASY PICK HERE.

A 6 STAR PLAY.

BALT OVER SD THIS IS EASIEST PICK I WLL GET TO MAKE THIS YEAR

EIDIT- TO DELETE A PICK.

 
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I like Buffalo a lot this weekend.

A three teamer here:

Bufflao +1

Dallas -9.5

Carolina -7.5

Minny will not move the ball that well agains ta very underrated defense in the Bills. I see the Bills running it down Minny's throat. And coming a out a winner. Tight game but I like the home team in this one.

Dallas will kill the Titans who are hopless and will continue to be winless. Dallas should easily control the line all day and run at will as well as hit some big plays.

Carolina will get it going against a team that will be emotionally drained from Monday night. Steve Smith is back in the fold and Deshaun Foster breaks out with a big game as well.

 
3-0 last week

7-2 overrall

Cincy -6

Dallas -9.5

KC/SF over 40.5

 
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1-2 last week

2-4 for the season

NYJets +9

Buffalo +1

Washington +3

Oakland +2.5

I'm taking four because they are all home dogs and I think they could/should all win outright.

 
very consistent -ly bad 1-2 and 3-6 overall

cin -6 ; NE on the road after a sunday night game with a poor secondary; 1st back to back losses for NE since 2002?

Miami and Hou under 40.5; has either team scored over 20 yet? oh houston once scored 24. And we expect both to be 20 +?

car -7.5; NO short wk on the rad after emotional game= Let Down!

 
laughinboy_2000 said:
...

Panther's -7.5

I'm actually going to this game, so it should be fun. Carolina owns NO folks. NO had a short week, and I think this will be a statement game for the KittyKats.

Carolina - 27

NO - 14

...
Click to expand...
:confused: Last 6 years at Carolina:

05 - Wk 1, Saints 23-20

04 - Wk 17, Saints 21-18

03 - Wk 5, Panthers 19-13

02 - Wk 10, Saints 34-24

01 - Wk 4, Saints 27-25

00 - Wk 11, Saints 20-10

Overall, the past 6 years vs Carolina (12 games): Saints 7 wins, 5 losses

 
Sidewinder said:
laughinboy_2000 said:
...

Panther's -7.5

I'm actually going to this game, so it should be fun. Carolina owns NO folks. NO had a short week, and I think this will be a statement game for the KittyKats.

Carolina - 27

NO - 14

...
Click to expand...
:confused: Last 6 years at Carolina:

05 - Wk 1, Saints 23-20

04 - Wk 17, Saints 21-18

03 - Wk 5, Panthers 19-13

02 - Wk 10, Saints 34-24

01 - Wk 4, Saints 27-25

00 - Wk 11, Saints 20-10

Overall, the past 6 years vs Carolina (12 games): Saints 7 wins, 5 losses
Click to expand...
yeah, i caught that too but i wasn't about to call stop someone from making a bad bet....
 
Billy Ball Thorton said:
First time this year so im 0-0here it goes. AZ @ ATL- I TAKE AZ AND FEEL GOOD ABOUT IT +7NE @ CIN- I TAKE CIN AND FEEL GREAT ABOUT IT -6NEXT PICK IS A 5 STAR LOCKDOWN SF @ KC - I TAKE KC ALL DAY AND TWICE ON SUNDAY.. EASY, EASY PICK HERE.EDIT TO ADD A 6 STAR PLAY. BALT OVER SD THIS IS EASIEST PICK I WLL GET TO MAKE THIS YEAR
Click to expand...
Rules state three picks...you will likely be DQed.
 
Week 1: 0-3 :bag:

Week 2: 1-2 :bag:

Week 3: 2-1 :yes:

Overall: 3-6 :yucky:

Week 4 Picks

New Orleans +7.4 at Carolina

Seattle +3.5 at Chicago

New England at Cincinatti (-6) (45.5) UNDER

 
AbidingDude said:
I think Carolina wins the NO game, after the Saints' emotional Monday nighter followed by a short week and some travel on top of that. But I don't like laying 7.5 points on just that. Granted Smith is back, and one could expect him to continue to become more involved in the offense, unless of course there is a set back. If he can play all game and not have any problems I really like him against the NO secondary. I will probably stay away from this one.
Click to expand...
The book on Carolina at home is that they either cover or lose outright. When playing Carolina at home points aren't a consideration, play the team you think will win.I haven't decided if I'm going to play this game, but if I do it will be NO. The Panthers have no answer for Bush. If you have Bush on your fantasy team, he's a must start. The Panthers over pursuing D-line along with crappy/slow LBs means that Bush will be cutting his runs back for huge chunks of yardage.
 
YTD: 5-3-1

Minnesota (-1)

- Minny has played 3 solid games thus far and so has Buffalo. I like Minnesota in a tight game.

Cinci (-6)

- NE has looked very sluggish thus far and Cincy isn't the team to get well on, Cincy easily.

Chicago (-3.5)

- If any team will beat Chicago it might be Seattle but with no Alexander, I don't see it happening.

Honourable mentions:

Tennessee (+9.5)

- Granted Tennessee is probably one of the worst teams in the league but I'm not sold on Dallas laying almost 10 on the road.

Miami (-3.5)

- Miami barely beat Tennessee last week so if they can't cover this spread then all hope is lost.

Green Bay (+11)

- Everything screams Philly but I think Favre has one more big Monday night in him.

NYJets (+9)

- The more I think about this game, the more I like the Jets. The fact I even think about this game probably means trouble.

 
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After 3 weeks, 5-4 overall.

This week I'll take:

NYJ +9

Oak +2.5

Wash +3

 
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Week 1: 1-2

Week 2: 1-2

Week 3: 1-2

anyone see a pattern? i got smart and bet against my third pick on monday night (i had picked atlanta) since i was 1-1 and voila, 1-2 but cash money in my pocket!

on that note, i'm pounding Atlanta this week. Vick didn't look like a guy who wanted to win, nor the gameplan, etc etc. not gonna blame atlanta for it, but it was clear i think that the game was over when it was scheduled. They come back huge this weekend and pound on arizona.

Atl -7

Indy -9

Cincy -6

 
I believe I'm 4-5 for the season.

Week 1: 2-1

Week 2: 0-3

Week 3: 2-1

Week 4:

MIA/HOU - Under 40.5

Cleveland -2.5

Jacksonville -3

 
GB +11: Favre will make it close, offense starting to work together

Sea +3: Again, offense finally starting to go and has nothing to do with Alexander, defense is very good, alot better that given credit for

Cinci -6: NE offense struggles, Cinci's offense cant be stopped, do the math

Bills +1: Bills put up the numbers but couldnt finish due to mistakes, they work on the mistakes, and possibly get Spikes back, Bills win but close

St louis -5.5: their deffense looks tough, Jackson has been running well, and Bulgar is alot better than he's playing and will start to get back in rythum w his recievers

* 2-1 last week

- 4-2 on the year

 
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SF +7 Should be an entertaining game. I think SF offense will do well enough against the KC defense to make this a close game.

JAX -3 I like Jacksonville to win this by more than a TD. Brunell + the Skins offense is going to have problems scoring. Jags cover easily.

Jets +9 Getting 9 points at home after playng well so far this season

 
I see a lot of S.F. +7 in here. Just a quick question. Why do people think that a second year Qb can go into KC against a top 10 D and with a Rb the is not 100% and cover? I did not pick one way or another on this game, and have no interest in it. Just a general question to the FBG handicappers. :D

 
BassNBrew said:
Cleveland (-2.5) at Oakland (33.5)

Are these good defensive teams???
Click to expand...
Usually when a young QB gets his first NFL start, the team runs an extremely conservative offense. With Oakland at home this should be the plan. Everyone knows to run the ball right at Oakland's D as well. So this does look like a boring defensive game of field position. However I expect Oakland to fire some deep ones early and to try a trick play because Cleveland wants to rattle Walter. Lots of potential for turnovers with two young QBs as well. Defensive game? Absolutely. Low Scoring game as a result? Only maybe
 
ExtraPoint said:
BassNBrew said:
Cleveland (-2.5) at Oakland (33.5)

Are these good defensive teams???
Click to expand...
Usually when a young QB gets his first NFL start, the team runs an extremely conservative offense. With Oakland at home this should be the plan. Everyone knows to run the ball right at Oakland's D as well. So this does look like a boring defensive game of field position. However I expect Oakland to fire some deep ones early and to try a trick play because Cleveland wants to rattle Walter. Lots of potential for turnovers with two young QBs as well. Defensive game? Absolutely. Low Scoring game as a result? Only maybe
Click to expand...
As a Browns fan i agree. Browns 30, Oak 3. Take the under. :mellow:
 
Thanks for taking care of this again MoP ...

Last week 2 - 0 - 1 ... I coulda kicked Scobey thru the damn uprights !

All roadies giving points this week ... :yucky: ... gawd I hate giving points on the road

San Diego -2.5 ... the Ravens D is good ... :football: ... guess what their O still sucks

Minnesota -1 ... the Vikings are a real solid team, this game is a definate snoozer though ... :sleep: ... most boring of the week

Cleveland -2.5 ... well, maybe I spoke to hastily about most boring ! :bag:

:popcorn:

ETA: Season Totals 6-2-1

 
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