Odell Beckham 1.01 in dynasty and redraft PPR leagues in 2015? (1 Viewer)

[Koya]

lol, no.

End of the first in Dynasty. I'd much rather have an elite WR that has proven himself in at least one full season.

Keenan Allen. Michael Clayton. Michael Floyd. They all looked elite at first, then defenses decided to cover them the next season.

I understand not trusting him to burn the 1.01 on him. I wouldn't necessarily either.

But trying to equate him to what those guys have done is laughable. None of those guys have looked anything like the dominance that OBJ has been this year.

Floyd racked up 45/562/2 over 16 games (3 starts) his rookie season.

Clayton went 80/1193/7 over 16 games (starting 13) his rookie season.

Allen went 71/1046/8 over 15 games (starting 14) his rookie season.

Beckham went 91/1305/12 over 13 games (12 starts).

And that's the just the numbers devoid of actually looking at them play.

Exactly like the folks saying he was better than Randy Moss his rookie year.

I have not read one person say he was better than Moss. But it's logical to link the two seeing as Moss had the best rookie year ever with 1,313 yards and 17 TDs. Prorate Beckham's 12 games over 16 and he gets to 1,740 yards and 16 TDs. So I'm sorry if people take offense to comparing a rookie to a proven multi year stud like Moss, but we haven't seen a rookie WR that looked this good since him.

Your last sentence says it all. And that's saying a LOT.

 

[anguskahn]

lol, no.

End of the first in Dynasty. I'd much rather have an elite WR that has proven himself in at least one full season.

Keenan Allen. Michael Clayton. Michael Floyd. They all looked elite at first, then defenses decided to cover them the next season.

I understand not trusting him to burn the 1.01 on him. I wouldn't necessarily either.

But trying to equate him to what those guys have done is laughable. None of those guys have looked anything like the dominance that OBJ has been this year.

Floyd racked up 45/562/2 over 16 games (3 starts) his rookie season.

Clayton went 80/1193/7 over 16 games (starting 13) his rookie season.

Allen went 71/1046/8 over 15 games (starting 14) his rookie season.

Beckham went 91/1305/12 over 13 games (12 starts).

And that's the just the numbers devoid of actually looking at them play.

Exactly like the folks saying he was better than Randy Moss his rookie year.

I have not read one person say he was better than Moss. But it's logical to link the two seeing as Moss had the best rookie year ever with 1,313 yards and 17 TDs. Prorate Beckham's 12 games over 16 and he gets to 1,740 yards and 16 TDs. So I'm sorry if people take offense to comparing a rookie to a proven multi year stud like Moss, but we haven't seen a rookie WR that looked this good since him.

You must have missed the 200+ replied thread a few below this one.

 

[mikel0254]

lol, no.

End of the first in Dynasty. I'd much rather have an elite WR that has proven himself in at least one full season.

Keenan Allen. Michael Clayton. Michael Floyd. They all looked elite at first, then defenses decided to cover them the next season.

I understand not trusting him to burn the 1.01 on him. I wouldn't necessarily either.

But trying to equate him to what those guys have done is laughable. None of those guys have looked anything like the dominance that OBJ has been this year.

Floyd racked up 45/562/2 over 16 games (3 starts) his rookie season.

Clayton went 80/1193/7 over 16 games (starting 13) his rookie season.

Allen went 71/1046/8 over 15 games (starting 14) his rookie season.

Beckham went 91/1305/12 over 13 games (12 starts).

And that's the just the numbers devoid of actually looking at them play.

Exactly like the folks saying he was better than Randy Moss his rookie year.

I have not read one person say he was better than Moss. But it's logical to link the two seeing as Moss had the best rookie year ever with 1,313 yards and 17 TDs. Prorate Beckham's 12 games over 16 and he gets to 1,740 yards and 16 TDs. So I'm sorry if people take offense to comparing a rookie to a proven multi year stud like Moss, but we haven't seen a rookie WR that looked this good since him.

You must have missed the 200+ replied thread a few below this one.

Ahh...yes, I did not read that one.

 

[georg013]

No disrespect but I didnt bother to read your post in full. I expect it is more of the same. So you are willing to spend the 1.01 based on a 12 game stretch. Your team your choice. I need more. My choice. Going in circles here. Moving on. I liked your post in good faith since you took the time to write it.

Why would you bother to respond if you couldn't be bothered to read the whole post? <_<

I never said I would take OBJ at the 1.01. I simply pointed out how "regression to the mean" gets thrown around too easily and a bit carelessly on these boards.

What good does it do me to believe ODJ will regress if I have no idea how much? Because at the end of the day, I have to put him on a draft sheet ranking him somewhere.

So speaking about regression without trying to quantify that regression really isn't that helpful outside of being able to come back later and posture over having predicted a regression. Saying he will regress doesn't tell me whether he would still be worth the 1.01 or maybe the 1.12 or maybe the 2.12.

Besides, you've actually subtley switched your argument. First you were saying he couldn't keep that pace. (No kidding, BTW) Now it sounds like you are saying the sample size isn't large enough. Why didn't you just say that to begin with?

Let's clarify. He will NOT keep up the pace. No switching of any argument. Just to be clear. Furthermore, he will regress to the mean. It is inevitable. Every player regresses to the mean. OBJ will be no different. Can you name one player who hasn't? In the history of sports? In the history of life? Tiger Woods? Calvin Johnson? Kobe Bryant? Superman? Everyone regresses to the mean.

 

[ILUVBEER99]

No disrespect but I didnt bother to read your post in full. I expect it is more of the same. So you are willing to spend the 1.01 based on a 12 game stretch. Your team your choice. I need more. My choice. Going in circles here. Moving on. I liked your post in good faith since you took the time to write it.

Why would you bother to respond if you couldn't be bothered to read the whole post? <_<

I never said I would take OBJ at the 1.01. I simply pointed out how "regression to the mean" gets thrown around too easily and a bit carelessly on these boards.

What good does it do me to believe ODJ will regress if I have no idea how much? Because at the end of the day, I have to put him on a draft sheet ranking him somewhere.

So speaking about regression without trying to quantify that regression really isn't that helpful outside of being able to come back later and posture over having predicted a regression. Saying he will regress doesn't tell me whether he would still be worth the 1.01 or maybe the 1.12 or maybe the 2.12.

Besides, you've actually subtley switched your argument. First you were saying he couldn't keep that pace. (No kidding, BTW) Now it sounds like you are saying the sample size isn't large enough. Why didn't you just say that to begin with?

Let's clarify. He will NOT keep up the pace. No switching of any argument. Just to be clear. Furthermore, he will regress to the mean. It is inevitable. Every player regresses to the mean. OBJ will be no different. Can you name one player who hasn't? In the history of sports? In the history of life? Tiger Woods? Calvin Johnson? Kobe Bryant? Superman? Everyone regresses to the mean.

Yes, but his regression will likely be more towards the average of other elite WR's? That's not a bad thing. 1,200 - 1,600 yards a season constantly is great, of course he's not going to regularly put up 2,200 yards/20 TD's.

Throw in a couple outlier seasons above and below and it works out fine.

 

[georg013]

This isnt about being good. This is about being the most valuable player in fantasy. The 1.01. There are several elite receivers. How many are worth the 1.01.

 

[ILUVBEER99]

This isnt about being good. This is about being the most valuable player in fantasy. The 1.01. There are several elite receivers. How many are worth the 1.01.

In redraft none, in dynasty any one of 6-7 WR's going 1st would be a fine move.

Due to RB scarcity i think Bell has to go #1 in redraft and probably dynasty as well, but can't fault someone for taking one of the elite WR's in dynasty leagues.

Luck would be an acceptable pick too. There is no definite #1 pick in dynasty, Luck, Bell, one of the 6ish elite WR's, all good picks there. I guess that implies trading down to pick 6-8 might be best move in dynasty start-ups.

 

[mr roboto]

This isnt about being good. This is about being the most valuable player in fantasy. The 1.01. There are several elite receivers. How many are worth the 1.01.

In redraft none, in dynasty any one of 6-7 WR's going 1st would be a fine move.

Due to RB scarcity i think Bell has to go #1 in redraft and probably dynasty as well, but can't fault someone for taking one of the elite WR's in dynasty leagues.

Luck would be an acceptable pick too. There is no definite #1 pick in dynasty, Luck, Bell, one of the 6ish elite WR's, all good picks there. I guess that implies trading down to pick 6-8 might be best move in dynasty start-ups.

Due to scarcity and depending on scoring, QB and then RB for dynasty startup are the most important iMO. 6 promising WRs were drafted this year. How many promising RBs? How about QBs?Luck and Rodgers are CLEAR teir 1 QBs. After that roll the dice. Bell Lacy Murray are CLEAR tier 1 RBs. After that, roll the dice.

Unless there was a Moss or Calvin player you have a cluster of great young WRs.

 

[carverlee]

This isnt about being good. This is about being the most valuable player in fantasy. The 1.01. There are several elite receivers. How many are worth the 1.01.

In redraft none, in dynasty any one of 6-7 WR's going 1st would be a fine move.

Due to RB scarcity i think Bell has to go #1 in redraft and probably dynasty as well, but can't fault someone for taking one of the elite WR's in dynasty leagues.

Luck would be an acceptable pick too. There is no definite #1 pick in dynasty, Luck, Bell, one of the 6ish elite WR's, all good picks there. I guess that implies trading down to pick 6-8 might be best move in dynasty start-ups.

It's odd how Beckham must regress to the mean but Bell and Luck are impervious to this logic. This is due to the handful of extra games in hand? Both just had a breakout season but the extra tape and game planning won't catch up with them as well, only Beckham? I hope the majority of the FF community truly takes this hardline stance on Beckham and is late to the party. I'll enjoy him at a discount next year.

 

[jurb26]

I'm still taking Charles at 1.01 in PPR.

 

[SproutDaddy]

Foster could be a consideration at 1.

 

[ILUVBEER99]

I'm still taking Charles at 1.01 in PPR.

in redraft i assume? in dynasty no way.

 

[ILUVBEER99]

This isnt about being good. This is about being the most valuable player in fantasy. The 1.01. There are several elite receivers. How many are worth the 1.01.

In redraft none, in dynasty any one of 6-7 WR's going 1st would be a fine move.

Due to RB scarcity i think Bell has to go #1 in redraft and probably dynasty as well, but can't fault someone for taking one of the elite WR's in dynasty leagues.

Luck would be an acceptable pick too. There is no definite #1 pick in dynasty, Luck, Bell, one of the 6ish elite WR's, all good picks there. I guess that implies trading down to pick 6-8 might be best move in dynasty start-ups.

Due to scarcity and depending on scoring, QB and then RB for dynasty startup are the most important iMO. 6 promising WRs were drafted this year. How many promising RBs? How about QBs?Luck and Rodgers are CLEAR teir 1 QBs. After that roll the dice. Bell Lacy Murray are CLEAR tier 1 RBs. After that, roll the dice.

Unless there was a Moss or Calvin player you have a cluster of great young WRs.

can't disagree with that logic at all. Bell is in a tier by himself at RB and Luck/Rodgers same thing at QB. at WR there is a pretty deep group of elite ones.

 

[IHEARTFF]

You just know he has a 2000 and 20 in him. That's worth the 1.1

 

[Bayhawks]

You just know he has a 2000 and 20 in him. That's worth the 1.1

This is the kind of asinine statement that makes these debates pointless. You are saying you know ODB can do what no other player in the history of the NFL has ever done. Not Jerry Rice, not Randy Moss, not Calvin Johnson, no one. has done what you say YOU KNOW Beckham will do. Seriously?

It took an NFL record 700+ pass attempts for Calvin to get 1900 receiving yards, but YOU KNOW Beckham will get 2000 with Eli, who has never thrown more than 601 in a season?

It took 2 HOFer QBs throwing 41 TD passes, and Tom Brady with a (at that time) NFL record 50 TD passes to get Rice and Moss to 20+ receiving TDs, but YOU KNOW Beckham will get 20 with Eli, who has never thrown more than 31 in a season?

Could Beckham get those numbers? Maybe, but saying YOU KNOW he will do it, and that's why he should go 1.01 is just dumb.

I could say I KNOW Luck will have a 5500/60 TD season, so that's why he should go 1.01, and that would be equally dumb.

Stating that it is a given that a player (a rookie, no less) will break not 1, but 2 NFL records, AT THE SAME TIME, is the definition of over-hype.

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

I don't know much about dynasty, but I joined a new keeper league and we get to keep one player from this past season. I was fortunate enough to "settle" for Luck at the draft and I hope he'll be my keeper for years to come.

If I had Beckham I'd still keep Luck. And it's a PPR. I think he's a WR1 for a successful fantasy team, though.

 

[cvnpoka]

lol, no.

End of the first in Dynasty. I'd much rather have an elite WR that has proven himself in at least one full season.

Keenan Allen. Michael Clayton. Michael Floyd. They all looked elite at first, then defenses decided to cover them the next season.

I understand not trusting him to burn the 1.01 on him. I wouldn't necessarily either.

But trying to equate him to what those guys have done is laughable. None of those guys have looked anything like the dominance that OBJ has been this year.

Floyd racked up 45/562/2 over 16 games (3 starts) his rookie season.

Clayton went 80/1193/7 over 16 games (starting 13) his rookie season.

Allen went 71/1046/8 over 15 games (starting 14) his rookie season.

Beckham went 91/1305/12 over 13 games (12 starts).

And that's the just the numbers devoid of actually looking at them play.

If Rivers was one to focus on one receiver then Allen could have put up the same numbers as Beckham.

and allen earned more targets per game this year than last. so rivers actually focused on him more this year.

 

[Nugget]

He will have a top 3 auction price next season in my PPR league. I figure we'll have 3-5 RBs go for more than WR1. I figure he will be a bit over 20% of someone's auction budget, 25% tops

 

[IHEARTFF]

You just know he has a 2000 and 20 in him. That's worth the 1.1

This is the kind of asinine statement that makes these debates pointless. You are saying you know ODB can do what no other player in the history of the NFL has ever done. Not Jerry Rice, not Randy Moss, not Calvin Johnson, no one. has done what you say YOU KNOW Beckham will do. Seriously?

It took an NFL record 700+ pass attempts for Calvin to get 1900 receiving yards, but YOU KNOW Beckham will get 2000 with Eli, who has never thrown more than 601 in a season?

It took 2 HOFer QBs throwing 41 TD passes, and Tom Brady with a (at that time) NFL record 50 TD passes to get Rice and Moss to 20+ receiving TDs, but YOU KNOW Beckham will get 20 with Eli, who has never thrown more than 31 in a season?

Could Beckham get those numbers? Maybe, but saying YOU KNOW he will do it, and that's why he should go 1.01 is just dumb.

I could say I KNOW Luck will have a 5500/60 TD season, so that's why he should go 1.01, and that would be equally dumb.

Stating that it is a given that a player (a rookie, no less) will break not 1, but 2 NFL records, AT THE SAME TIME, is the definition of over-hype.

You seem mad.

Anyway, he was on a 2131 yard and 16 TD pace over his last 9 games. 2000 and 20 is not unrealistic for him.

 

[georg013]

You just know he has a 2000 and 20 in him. That's worth the 1.1

This is the kind of asinine statement that makes these debates pointless. You are saying you know ODB can do what no other player in the history of the NFL has ever done. Not Jerry Rice, not Randy Moss, not Calvin Johnson, no one. has done what you say YOU KNOW Beckham will do. Seriously? It took an NFL record 700+ pass attempts for Calvin to get 1900 receiving yards, but YOU KNOW Beckham will get 2000 with Eli, who has never thrown more than 601 in a season?

It took 2 HOFer QBs throwing 41 TD passes, and Tom Brady with a (at that time) NFL record 50 TD passes to get Rice and Moss to 20+ receiving TDs, but YOU KNOW Beckham will get 20 with Eli, who has never thrown more than 31 in a season?

Could Beckham get those numbers? Maybe, but saying YOU KNOW he will do it, and that's why he should go 1.01 is just dumb.

I could say I KNOW Luck will have a 5500/60 TD season, so that's why he should go 1.01, and that would be equally dumb.

Stating that it is a given that a player (a rookie, no less) will break not 1, but 2 NFL records, AT THE SAME TIME, is the definition of over-hype.

You seem mad.Anyway, he was on a 2131 yard and 16 TD pace over his last 9 games. 2000 and 20 is not unrealistic for him.

LMAO

 

[jurb26]

You just know he has a 2000 and 20 in him. That's worth the 1.1

This is the kind of asinine statement that makes these debates pointless. You are saying you know ODB can do what no other player in the history of the NFL has ever done. Not Jerry Rice, not Randy Moss, not Calvin Johnson, no one. has done what you say YOU KNOW Beckham will do. Seriously? It took an NFL record 700+ pass attempts for Calvin to get 1900 receiving yards, but YOU KNOW Beckham will get 2000 with Eli, who has never thrown more than 601 in a season?

It took 2 HOFer QBs throwing 41 TD passes, and Tom Brady with a (at that time) NFL record 50 TD passes to get Rice and Moss to 20+ receiving TDs, but YOU KNOW Beckham will get 20 with Eli, who has never thrown more than 31 in a season?

Could Beckham get those numbers? Maybe, but saying YOU KNOW he will do it, and that's why he should go 1.01 is just dumb.

I could say I KNOW Luck will have a 5500/60 TD season, so that's why he should go 1.01, and that would be equally dumb.

Stating that it is a given that a player (a rookie, no less) will break not 1, but 2 NFL records, AT THE SAME TIME, is the definition of over-hype.

You seem mad.Anyway, he was on a 2131 yard and 16 TD pace over his last 9 games. 2000 and 20 is not unrealistic for him.

 

[Gandalf]

I love Beckham but the hype has gone too far.

No doubt in my mind about this. It will be funny to re-read these threads if he isn't even a WR1 next season.

 

[Bayhawks]

You just know he has a 2000 and 20 in him. That's worth the 1.1

This is the kind of asinine statement that makes these debates pointless. You are saying you know ODB can do what no other player in the history of the NFL has ever done. Not Jerry Rice, not Randy Moss, not Calvin Johnson, no one. has done what you say YOU KNOW Beckham will do. Seriously?

It took an NFL record 700+ pass attempts for Calvin to get 1900 receiving yards, but YOU KNOW Beckham will get 2000 with Eli, who has never thrown more than 601 in a season?

It took 2 HOFer QBs throwing 41 TD passes, and Tom Brady with a (at that time) NFL record 50 TD passes to get Rice and Moss to 20+ receiving TDs, but YOU KNOW Beckham will get 20 with Eli, who has never thrown more than 31 in a season?

Could Beckham get those numbers? Maybe, but saying YOU KNOW he will do it, and that's why he should go 1.01 is just dumb.

I could say I KNOW Luck will have a 5500/60 TD season, so that's why he should go 1.01, and that would be equally dumb.

Stating that it is a given that a player (a rookie, no less) will break not 1, but 2 NFL records, AT THE SAME TIME, is the definition of over-hype.

You seem mad.

Anyway, he was on a 2131 yard and 16 TD pace over his last 9 games. 2000 and 20 is not unrealistic for him.

1-You didn't say it was not unrealistic in your first post, you said "YOU KNOW" he has it in him. Stating it was a given that ODB would do this is what I called asinine. If you're amending your original statement, that's fine, but it's asinine to suggest that YOU KNOW he will put up ridiculous, video-game type numbers based on a 9-game hot streak.

2-Besides that, yes, it is unrealistic. Expecting any player to break not 1 NFL record, but 2, in the same season is unrealistic, especially when you are basing it on a tiny sample size of 9 games.

Calvin Johnson was on pace for 2350 yards over the last 9 games in 2012, he hasn't cracked 1500 in the 2 seasons since.

ADP was on pace for 2570 yards over the last 9 games in 2012, he only gained 1266 in 2013.

Just because a player has a hot streak doesn't mean pro-rating those stats over a full season is realistic.

 

[ShamrockPride]

Saving this thread for later griefing after next season. We got guys in here seriously talking about 2000 yard receiving seasons when only 2 guys in 100 years of this game have even surpassed 1800. You all deserve the shaming I am going to give you in 12 months.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Beckham is obviously pretty awesome already, but to play the contrarian for a minute, I'd have a hard time taking a WR number 1 when Eli Manning is throwing him the ball. Okay, Eli played well this year for the most part, much of which was probably because he had Beckham to throw to, but Eli just scares me. I think Beckham will be great, but number 1 overall in redraft? I can't get on board with that.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

4 FBG staff members have updated their positional dynasty rankings in the past week. Beckham is the #1 WR in all 4 of those, fwiw.

I can't believe people get paid (and other people pay) for a job/service like this.

I get that if there is a buyer, someone is going to become a seller but really?

Someone said above that ODB is quickly becoming the most overhyped player for the offseason and that is certainly the case. During a long time of watching football and playing FF, I can probably put together a list of a player or three who EVERY single year falls into a perfect storm scenario and just looks like the next coming and people get flat out stupid over him.

How much were people paying for TRICH just two years ago?

Wasn't Jordan Cameron a sure-fire can't miss top 4 dynasty TE just 7 months ago?

The NFL is a funny league in that during the season, they can be brutally stubborn and regimented and cut their nose off to spite their face because they can't/won't change anything but they are also remarkably efficient in adjusting in the offseason to things they have game tape to study. When you have a great talent, obviously he is going to be effective if used correctly but every team that plays the Giants next year isn't just going to continue to show up and watch their season get bent sideways because they allow this one guy to just play pitch and catch. Teams will adjust.

Andrew Luck came into the league with everyone eyeballing him as the great next QB talent. So far, he has lived up to it in a big way. He has the pedigree and the production. A guy like him I can buy hitching your horses to. But 90% of the ff experts, real scouts in general, etc, weren't talking about Beckham coming into the league the way they are now. It was Sammy, Evans, and everyone else was a clear tier before. That's not to say that Beckham isn't really great, but more to say that sometimes players just find themselves in that sweet spot at the right time, at the right time of the year, under the right circumstances. And maybe next year, it won't come as easy.

Lots of people won fantasy titles on the backs of Peyton Hillis and Reuben Droughns that ONE TIME. But they didn't continue the pace they were on that would have shattered Emmitt Smith's records and I don't expect Beckham is going to continue a trajectory that will have him bumping Jerry Rice's names out of the books in 9 years. Sometimes you just have to recognize a unique and perfect storm when you see it.

It is SO easy to look at hindsight and say Beckham is now number 1 going forward. IS that really expert ff advice you need to be told and that you want to pay for?

I think a LOT of people are going to be disappointed next season if they fall into this line of thinking.

yeah, remember that year .......uhmmmm whatsisname......arian foster, I think it was, came out of nowhere and got hot at the end of the year and then nobody ever heard from him again.

I feel like I'm forgetting some detail -- probably irrelevant

 

[IHEARTFF]

You just know he has a 2000 and 20 in him. That's worth the 1.1

This is the kind of asinine statement that makes these debates pointless. You are saying you know ODB can do what no other player in the history of the NFL has ever done. Not Jerry Rice, not Randy Moss, not Calvin Johnson, no one. has done what you say YOU KNOW Beckham will do. Seriously?

It took an NFL record 700+ pass attempts for Calvin to get 1900 receiving yards, but YOU KNOW Beckham will get 2000 with Eli, who has never thrown more than 601 in a season?

It took 2 HOFer QBs throwing 41 TD passes, and Tom Brady with a (at that time) NFL record 50 TD passes to get Rice and Moss to 20+ receiving TDs, but YOU KNOW Beckham will get 20 with Eli, who has never thrown more than 31 in a season?

Could Beckham get those numbers? Maybe, but saying YOU KNOW he will do it, and that's why he should go 1.01 is just dumb.

I could say I KNOW Luck will have a 5500/60 TD season, so that's why he should go 1.01, and that would be equally dumb.

Stating that it is a given that a player (a rookie, no less) will break not 1, but 2 NFL records, AT THE SAME TIME, is the definition of over-hype.

You seem mad.

Anyway, he was on a 2131 yard and 16 TD pace over his last 9 games. 2000 and 20 is not unrealistic for him.

1-You didn't say it was not unrealistic in your first post, you said "YOU KNOW" he has it in him. Stating it was a given that ODB would do this is what I called asinine. If you're amending your original statement, that's fine, but it's asinine to suggest that YOU KNOW he will put up ridiculous, video-game type numbers based on a 9-game hot streak.

2-Besides that, yes, it is unrealistic. Expecting any player to break not 1 NFL record, but 2, in the same season is unrealistic, especially when you are basing it on a tiny sample size of 9 games.

Calvin Johnson was on pace for 2350 yards over the last 9 games in 2012, he hasn't cracked 1500 in the 2 seasons since.

ADP was on pace for 2570 yards over the last 9 games in 2012, he only gained 1266 in 2013.

Just because a player has a hot streak doesn't mean pro-rating those stats over a full season is realistic.

Yes, you know is hyperbole. Obviously, we don't know. I think he is definitely the #1 dynasty WR and depending on your scoring format is the 1.1 overall.

20 TD would not be an NFL record, so not sure why you keep mentioning breaking 2 NFL records. 2000 yards is coming. 5 of the top 15 WR yardage seasons of all time have come from Calvin, Antonio Brown, Demaryius, & Josh Gordon with Andre at 19 and Julio at 21 this year. Beckham's per game pace counting his 1st 3 stinkers was for the 5th best season of all time as well. It's coming.

 

[jdubs952]

Beckham is obviously pretty awesome already, but to play the contrarian for a minute, I'd have a hard time taking a WR number 1 when Eli Manning is throwing him the ball. Okay, Eli played well this year for the most part, much of which was probably because he had Beckham to throw to, but Eli just scares me. I think Beckham will be great, but number 1 overall in redraft? I can't get on board with that.

Eli makes average wrs fantasy relevant: nicks, cruz, steve smith, jernigan, etc..

I'm very optimistic that you can do great things with a superior talent like obj.

 

[IHEARTFF]

This isn't some random out of nowhere Peyton Hillis season, either. Odell Beckham Jr. was the 12th pick in round 1 of the deepest draft in NFL history.

 

[Dismattle]

This isnt about being good. This is about being the most valuable player in fantasy. The 1.01. There are several elite receivers. How many are worth the 1.01.

In redraft none, in dynasty any one of 6-7 WR's going 1st would be a fine move.

Due to RB scarcity i think Bell has to go #1 in redraft and probably dynasty as well, but can't fault someone for taking one of the elite WR's in dynasty leagues.

Luck would be an acceptable pick too. There is no definite #1 pick in dynasty, Luck, Bell, one of the 6ish elite WR's, all good picks there. I guess that implies trading down to pick 6-8 might be best move in dynasty start-ups.

It might be a good time to explain, how your coming up with the ranking..

I mean is this in reference to how many yrs of service at an elite level/ scarcity of similarly available talent/ name recognition alone

I really like Bell, and actually took Patterson in my draft (DOH) But anyway my point is that when you hit on a WR.. It can have lasting effects. For a counter example, what ya doin w/ Patterson/Kaep/ (insert rookie RB name)

There is quite a bit of risk in every position, but a WR1 is quite appealing (heck I still have Roddy rostered)

Now I do agree w/ having some reservation w/ the availability of Luck in a start-up. QB's can last for yrs, and stay productive for yrs n yrs.. However unless your including some gurantee that this guy is Beast-Mode all over again (Im not buyin)

p.s. Now I really like Mike Evans a lot, but if you have a shot at ODB (especially if its not like the first couple picks ie. Luck (maybe Wilson gone too imho) I think ya should jump all over ODB UNLESS Weve seen any changes ex. Coach's, QB etc. The guy looks legit. If ya think your a baller (period) and wanna take your chances w/ other WR's I could see guys like Bell (maybe Hill) poundin the rock hard for yrs too But trust me, itll start hurtin down the road if ya take the Blackmons/ Pattersons in back to back yrs. Ive seen guys become "gun-shy" and its not pretty..

Bottom line QB's can take time to develop and RB's get called to action and don't stop (sometimes) Guys like Bryant and/or Thomas (hmm, hope the pictures clear)

 

[Donnybrook]

Reading this makes me believe that it is probably a good year to trade back in a dynasty PPR start up. Not saying that ODB would be a bad pick at 1.01 but don't see any significant gap between him and Julio Jones, AJ Green, and Andrew Luck.

 

[Bayhawks]

You just know he has a 2000 and 20 in him. That's worth the 1.1

This is the kind of asinine statement that makes these debates pointless. You are saying you know ODB can do what no other player in the history of the NFL has ever done. Not Jerry Rice, not Randy Moss, not Calvin Johnson, no one. has done what you say YOU KNOW Beckham will do. Seriously? It took an NFL record 700+ pass attempts for Calvin to get 1900 receiving yards, but YOU KNOW Beckham will get 2000 with Eli, who has never thrown more than 601 in a season?

It took 2 HOFer QBs throwing 41 TD passes, and Tom Brady with a (at that time) NFL record 50 TD passes to get Rice and Moss to 20+ receiving TDs, but YOU KNOW Beckham will get 20 with Eli, who has never thrown more than 31 in a season?

Could Beckham get those numbers? Maybe, but saying YOU KNOW he will do it, and that's why he should go 1.01 is just dumb.

I could say I KNOW Luck will have a 5500/60 TD season, so that's why he should go 1.01, and that would be equally dumb.

Stating that it is a given that a player (a rookie, no less) will break not 1, but 2 NFL records, AT THE SAME TIME, is the definition of over-hype.

You seem mad.Anyway, he was on a 2131 yard and 16 TD pace over his last 9 games. 2000 and 20 is not unrealistic for him.

1-You didn't say it was not unrealistic in your first post, you said "YOU KNOW" he has it in him. Stating it was a given that ODB would do this is what I called asinine. If you're amending your original statement, that's fine, but it's asinine to suggest that YOU KNOW he will put up ridiculous, video-game type numbers based on a 9-game hot streak.2-Besides that, yes, it is unrealistic. Expecting any player to break not 1 NFL record, but 2, in the same season is unrealistic, especially when you are basing it on a tiny sample size of 9 games.

Calvin Johnson was on pace for 2350 yards over the last 9 games in 2012, he hasn't cracked 1500 in the 2 seasons since.

ADP was on pace for 2570 yards over the last 9 games in 2012, he only gained 1266 in 2013.

Just because a player has a hot streak doesn't mean pro-rating those stats over a full season is realistic.

Yes, you know is hyperbole. Obviously, we don't know. I think he is definitely the #1 dynasty WR and depending on your scoring format is the 1.1 overall. 20 TD would not be an NFL record, so not sure why you keep mentioning breaking 2 NFL records. 2000 yards is coming. 5 of the top 15 WR yardage seasons of all time have come from Calvin, Antonio Brown, Demaryius, & Josh Gordon with Andre at 19 and Julio at 21 this year. Beckham's per game pace counting his 1st 3 stinkers was for the 5th best season of all time as well. It's coming.

I agree, depending on scoring system anf the right circumstances, a WR could be the 1.01 pick. The right circumstances don't currently exist, though. Beckham is in the same tier as a number of their WRs ( especially if you are talking redraft): Brown, Dez, Julio, Calvin, Jordy, Hilton, Cobb, D Thomas, Sanders, Evans, etc. Why take any of those WRs at 1.01, when another WR from the same tier will be available at the end of the 2nd, and the drop off at RB or QB would be much greater? There is no reason to pick WR at the 1.01, unless you are predicting ridiculous numbers (like 2000 & 20).

 

[Banger]

No disrespect but I didnt bother to read your post in full. I expect it is more of the same. So you are willing to spend the 1.01 based on a 12 game stretch. Your team your choice. I need more. My choice. Going in circles here. Moving on. I liked your post in good faith since you took the time to write it.

Why would you bother to respond if you couldn't be bothered to read the whole post? <_<

I never said I would take OBJ at the 1.01. I simply pointed out how "regression to the mean" gets thrown around too easily and a bit carelessly on these boards.

What good does it do me to believe ODJ will regress if I have no idea how much? Because at the end of the day, I have to put him on a draft sheet ranking him somewhere.

So speaking about regression without trying to quantify that regression really isn't that helpful outside of being able to come back later and posture over having predicted a regression. Saying he will regress doesn't tell me whether he would still be worth the 1.01 or maybe the 1.12 or maybe the 2.12.

Besides, you've actually subtley switched your argument. First you were saying he couldn't keep that pace. (No kidding, BTW) Now it sounds like you are saying the sample size isn't large enough. Why didn't you just say that to begin with?

Let's clarify. He will NOT keep up the pace. No switching of any argument. Just to be clear. Furthermore, he will regress to the mean. It is inevitable. Every player regresses to the mean. OBJ will be no different. Can you name one player who hasn't? In the history of sports? In the history of life? Tiger Woods? Calvin Johnson? Kobe Bryant? Superman? Everyone regresses to the mean.

what's his mean by the way?

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

No disrespect but I didnt bother to read your post in full. I expect it is more of the same. So you are willing to spend the 1.01 based on a 12 game stretch. Your team your choice. I need more. My choice. Going in circles here. Moving on. I liked your post in good faith since you took the time to write it.

Why would you bother to respond if you couldn't be bothered to read the whole post? <_<

I never said I would take OBJ at the 1.01. I simply pointed out how "regression to the mean" gets thrown around too easily and a bit carelessly on these boards.

What good does it do me to believe ODJ will regress if I have no idea how much? Because at the end of the day, I have to put him on a draft sheet ranking him somewhere.

So speaking about regression without trying to quantify that regression really isn't that helpful outside of being able to come back later and posture over having predicted a regression. Saying he will regress doesn't tell me whether he would still be worth the 1.01 or maybe the 1.12 or maybe the 2.12.

Besides, you've actually subtley switched your argument. First you were saying he couldn't keep that pace. (No kidding, BTW) Now it sounds like you are saying the sample size isn't large enough. Why didn't you just say that to begin with?

Let's clarify. He will NOT keep up the pace. No switching of any argument. Just to be clear. Furthermore, he will regress to the mean. It is inevitable. Every player regresses to the mean. OBJ will be no different. Can you name one player who hasn't? In the history of sports? In the history of life? Tiger Woods? Calvin Johnson? Kobe Bryant? Superman? Everyone regresses to the mean.

what's his mean by the way?

forget it, he's rolling

 

[georg013]

Who let KoolAid out of the idp snaps section again?! Dammit!

 

[Dr. Octopus]

No disrespect but I didnt bother to read your post in full. I expect it is more of the same. So you are willing to spend the 1.01 based on a 12 game stretch. Your team your choice. I need more. My choice. Going in circles here. Moving on. I liked your post in good faith since you took the time to write it.

Why would you bother to respond if you couldn't be bothered to read the whole post? <_<

I never said I would take OBJ at the 1.01. I simply pointed out how "regression to the mean" gets thrown around too easily and a bit carelessly on these boards.

What good does it do me to believe ODJ will regress if I have no idea how much? Because at the end of the day, I have to put him on a draft sheet ranking him somewhere.

So speaking about regression without trying to quantify that regression really isn't that helpful outside of being able to come back later and posture over having predicted a regression. Saying he will regress doesn't tell me whether he would still be worth the 1.01 or maybe the 1.12 or maybe the 2.12.

Besides, you've actually subtley switched your argument. First you were saying he couldn't keep that pace. (No kidding, BTW) Now it sounds like you are saying the sample size isn't large enough. Why didn't you just say that to begin with?

Let's clarify. He will NOT keep up the pace. No switching of any argument. Just to be clear. Furthermore, he will regress to the mean. It is inevitable. Every player regresses to the mean. OBJ will be no different. Can you name one player who hasn't? In the history of sports? In the history of life? Tiger Woods? Calvin Johnson? Kobe Bryant? Superman? Everyone regresses to the mean.

what's his mean by the way?

same as Tiger Woods apparently - best in the world by far until knee and back injuries do him in around 40 years old?

 

[Shutout]

4 FBG staff members have updated their positional dynasty rankings in the past week. Beckham is the #1 WR in all 4 of those, fwiw.

I can't believe people get paid (and other people pay) for a job/service like this.

I get that if there is a buyer, someone is going to become a seller but really?

Someone said above that ODB is quickly becoming the most overhyped player for the offseason and that is certainly the case. During a long time of watching football and playing FF, I can probably put together a list of a player or three who EVERY single year falls into a perfect storm scenario and just looks like the next coming and people get flat out stupid over him.

How much were people paying for TRICH just two years ago?

Wasn't Jordan Cameron a sure-fire can't miss top 4 dynasty TE just 7 months ago?

The NFL is a funny league in that during the season, they can be brutally stubborn and regimented and cut their nose off to spite their face because they can't/won't change anything but they are also remarkably efficient in adjusting in the offseason to things they have game tape to study. When you have a great talent, obviously he is going to be effective if used correctly but every team that plays the Giants next year isn't just going to continue to show up and watch their season get bent sideways because they allow this one guy to just play pitch and catch. Teams will adjust.

Andrew Luck came into the league with everyone eyeballing him as the great next QB talent. So far, he has lived up to it in a big way. He has the pedigree and the production. A guy like him I can buy hitching your horses to. But 90% of the ff experts, real scouts in general, etc, weren't talking about Beckham coming into the league the way they are now. It was Sammy, Evans, and everyone else was a clear tier before. That's not to say that Beckham isn't really great, but more to say that sometimes players just find themselves in that sweet spot at the right time, at the right time of the year, under the right circumstances. And maybe next year, it won't come as easy.

Lots of people won fantasy titles on the backs of Peyton Hillis and Reuben Droughns that ONE TIME. But they didn't continue the pace they were on that would have shattered Emmitt Smith's records and I don't expect Beckham is going to continue a trajectory that will have him bumping Jerry Rice's names out of the books in 9 years. Sometimes you just have to recognize a unique and perfect storm when you see it.

It is SO easy to look at hindsight and say Beckham is now number 1 going forward. IS that really expert ff advice you need to be told and that you want to pay for?

I think a LOT of people are going to be disappointed next season if they fall into this line of thinking.

yeah, remember that year .......uhmmmm whatsisname......arian foster, I think it was, came out of nowhere and got hot at the end of the year and then nobody ever heard from him again.

I feel like I'm forgetting some detail -- probably irrelevant

Yeah, what you are missing from that scenario is Arian Foster was a great college talent that finished 2nd all time at this school, had a great junior year and was advised to enter the draft but then he stayed and inherited a rebuilding, bumbling Tennessee team, yet another OC (I think he went through a new one every year he was there), and their philosophy was about as terrible as the way Andy Reid thinks about Jamaal Charles.

He then got a bunch of nagging injuries, one of which was a hamstring that kept him from participating in the ALL IMPORTANT (to some) scouting combine. He had some bad attitude issues with his coaches and some other red flags which some in the NFL took as character issues but failed to realize the Mickey Mouse operation Tennessee was running and that they basically screwed him over and he was right.

He then CHOSE to sign with the Texans, saying that the Scheme they used was the one he fit best into in college (since he got a chance to run in FOUR of them while he was there).

Yeah, you missed a few things. And even all of that doesn't mean Beckham isn't or won't be great in the NFL. I am just saying these people talking him up like he is the late 90's Priest Holmes/Marshall Faulk on steroids and will just keep doing this, will go 18 TDs, flirt with 2000 yards, will get 225 targets all the time are just setting them up for a miserable return, relevant to what they are talking about paying for him.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Yeah, what you are missing from that scenario is Arian Foster was a great college talent that finished 2nd all time at this school, had a great junior year and was advised to enter the draft but then he stayed and inherited a rebuilding, bumbling Tennessee team, yet another OC (I think he went through a new one every year he was there), and their philosophy was about as terrible as the way Andy Reid thinks about Jamaal Charles.

He then got a bunch of nagging injuries, one of which was a hamstring that kept him from participating in the ALL IMPORTANT (to some) scouting combine. He had some bad attitude issues with his coaches and some other red flags which some in the NFL took as character issues but failed to realize the Mickey Mouse operation Tennessee was running and that they basically screwed him over and he was right.

He then CHOSE to sign with the Texans, saying that the Scheme they used was the one he fit best into in college (since he got a chance to run in FOUR of them while he was there).

Yeah, you missed a few things. And even all of that doesn't mean Beckham isn't or won't be great in the NFL. I am just saying these people talking him up like he is the late 90's Priest Holmes/Marshall Faulk on steroids and will just keep doing this, will go 18 TDs, flirt with 2000 yards, will get 225 targets all the time are just setting them up for a miserable return, relevant to what they are talking about paying for him.

does he need that to get drafted early?

mike clayton sucked, so that means brown, green, calvin, demaryius, et al will all regress to the mean, leaving odb on top with far less than the bolded

 

[JamesTheScot]

No disrespect but I didnt bother to read your post in full. I expect it is more of the same. So you are willing to spend the 1.01 based on a 12 game stretch. Your team your choice. I need more. My choice. Going in circles here. Moving on. I liked your post in good faith since you took the time to write it.

Why would you bother to respond if you couldn't be bothered to read the whole post? <_<

I never said I would take OBJ at the 1.01. I simply pointed out how "regression to the mean" gets thrown around too easily and a bit carelessly on these boards.

What good does it do me to believe ODJ will regress if I have no idea how much? Because at the end of the day, I have to put him on a draft sheet ranking him somewhere.

So speaking about regression without trying to quantify that regression really isn't that helpful outside of being able to come back later and posture over having predicted a regression. Saying he will regress doesn't tell me whether he would still be worth the 1.01 or maybe the 1.12 or maybe the 2.12.

Besides, you've actually subtley switched your argument. First you were saying he couldn't keep that pace. (No kidding, BTW) Now it sounds like you are saying the sample size isn't large enough. Why didn't you just say that to begin with?

Let's clarify. He will NOT keep up the pace. No switching of any argument. Just to be clear. Furthermore, he will regress to the mean. It is inevitable. Every player regresses to the mean. OBJ will be no different. Can you name one player who hasn't? In the history of sports? In the history of life? Tiger Woods? Calvin Johnson? Kobe Bryant? Superman? Everyone regresses to the mean.

Saying he will regress to the mean is still meaningless! The mean for what? All NFL receivers ever? All of them in the last 10 years? All of the top 10 receivers (stat's wise)?

To say he isn't worth the 1.01 because he will regress to the mean is nearly nonsensical.

If, as you say, every receiver will regress to the mean, and if, as you imply, OBJ isn't worth the 1.01 because he will regress to the mean, then, again, as I showed in my earlier post, NO receiver should be taken at the 1.01 because, as you say, they all will regress to the mean.

You can't say he isn't worth the 1.01 because he will regress out of one side of your mouth and then out of the other side say that every receiver will regress.

You are throwing around that phrase in support of your argument when it in no way actually supports your argument.

 

[JamesTheScot]

4 FBG staff members have updated their positional dynasty rankings in the past week. Beckham is the #1 WR in all 4 of those, fwiw.

I can't believe people get paid (and other people pay) for a job/service like this.

I get that if there is a buyer, someone is going to become a seller but really?

Someone said above that ODB is quickly becoming the most overhyped player for the offseason and that is certainly the case. During a long time of watching football and playing FF, I can probably put together a list of a player or three who EVERY single year falls into a perfect storm scenario and just looks like the next coming and people get flat out stupid over him.

How much were people paying for TRICH just two years ago?

Wasn't Jordan Cameron a sure-fire can't miss top 4 dynasty TE just 7 months ago?

The NFL is a funny league in that during the season, they can be brutally stubborn and regimented and cut their nose off to spite their face because they can't/won't change anything but they are also remarkably efficient in adjusting in the offseason to things they have game tape to study. When you have a great talent, obviously he is going to be effective if used correctly but every team that plays the Giants next year isn't just going to continue to show up and watch their season get bent sideways because they allow this one guy to just play pitch and catch. Teams will adjust.

Andrew Luck came into the league with everyone eyeballing him as the great next QB talent. So far, he has lived up to it in a big way. He has the pedigree and the production. A guy like him I can buy hitching your horses to. But 90% of the ff experts, real scouts in general, etc, weren't talking about Beckham coming into the league the way they are now. It was Sammy, Evans, and everyone else was a clear tier before. That's not to say that Beckham isn't really great, but more to say that sometimes players just find themselves in that sweet spot at the right time, at the right time of the year, under the right circumstances. And maybe next year, it won't come as easy.

Lots of people won fantasy titles on the backs of Peyton Hillis and Reuben Droughns that ONE TIME. But they didn't continue the pace they were on that would have shattered Emmitt Smith's records and I don't expect Beckham is going to continue a trajectory that will have him bumping Jerry Rice's names out of the books in 9 years. Sometimes you just have to recognize a unique and perfect storm when you see it.

It is SO easy to look at hindsight and say Beckham is now number 1 going forward. IS that really expert ff advice you need to be told and that you want to pay for?

I think a LOT of people are going to be disappointed next season if they fall into this line of thinking.

yeah, remember that year .......uhmmmm whatsisname......arian foster, I think it was, came out of nowhere and got hot at the end of the year and then nobody ever heard from him again.

I feel like I'm forgetting some detail -- probably irrelevant

Good posting.

This is what the shark pool is.

Take a position on a player...well, sort of take a position on a player and conveniently cite past situations that fit your argument while ignoring the ones that run counter to your argument.

 

[Slim_Shady]

You've got to be kidding. I remember this guy named Josh Gordon that put up ridiculous in 2013 and was pretty much unstoppable. Along came 2014 and he wasn't superman any longer. THe point being that circumstances change year to year. He is a top 10 WR in redraft and top 5 WR in keeper/dynasty but to even contemplate as 1.01 in a redraft is about the most ridiculous thing I've seen......good luck with all that!

 

[Ernol]

Yeah, what you are missing from that scenario is Arian Foster was a great college talent that finished 2nd all time at this school, had a great junior year and was advised to enter the draft but then he stayed and inherited a rebuilding, bumbling Tennessee team, yet another OC (I think he went through a new one every year he was there), and their philosophy was about as terrible as the way Andy Reid thinks about Jamaal Charles.


He then got a bunch of nagging injuries, one of which was a hamstring that kept him from participating in the ALL IMPORTANT (to some) scouting combine. He had some bad attitude issues with his coaches and some other red flags which some in the NFL took as character issues but failed to realize the Mickey Mouse operation Tennessee was running and that they basically screwed him over and he was right.

He then CHOSE to sign with the Texans, saying that the Scheme they used was the one he fit best into in college (since he got a chance to run in FOUR of them while he was there).

Yeah, you missed a few things. And even all of that doesn't mean Beckham isn't or won't be great in the NFL. I am just saying these people talking him up like he is the late 90's Priest Holmes/Marshall Faulk on steroids and will just keep doing this, will go 18 TDs, flirt with 2000 yards, will get 225 targets all the time are just setting them up for a miserable return, relevant to what they are talking about paying for him.

So if I am reading this right, you are saying that although undrafted, with Foster’s former pedigree (he was given a 2nd round advisory grade after his junior year) and situation (he went to a team of his choice as some undrafted rookies get to do), those that predicted greatness after a great NFL start had reason to do so. And yet, with Odell Beckham’s lack of pedigree (drafted 12th overall!), after his great NFL start, predicting greatness is all an overreaction?

As far as experts talking up Odell Beckham back then like they do now, of course they didn’t. 12 games of those kind of eye-popping numbers can change things, as they should! Failing to adjust expectations after 12 games like that would be a fault imo. If anything, FBG moving him up to #1 is both bold and surprising. I applaud them for taking a position that will be an easy target for criticism, because the conservative choice would be to stick with AJ Green, Dez Bryant or Julio Jones. If you believe in someone enough to pay for their advice, then you want that someone to give their honest assessment despite the criticism that it would bring. Its then up to you to take that info and apply it as you please.

Back to pedigree though, Odell Beckham had it, it just wasn’t that obvious (at least to me). As Matt Waldman indicated in his post draft RSP, “Eli Manning repeatedly asked the Giants to pick Beckham if he was available and the front office had the receiver as a top-10 player in this class”. That’s great info and indicates that the Giants saw him as a potential impact player from the beginning (and perhaps we should have also). The Giants actually taking him at #12 was another indication. Matt Waldman himself had Odell Beckham at #2 behind only Sammy Watkins in the RSP. Nice call! It wasn’t always just Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, and then everyone else after all.

 

[ghostguy123]

I wouldnt take him at #1 in redraft, but I wouldnt fault someone for doing so. The RBs are always up and down. Mccoy and Peterson were top picks, right? Charles didnt even have that great of a year.

In less than a full year Beckham actually outscored all but a few RBs, and more importantly he LOOKED good doing in (looked great actually).

Next year will be looking like a nice year to have 12/13 to start out a redraft.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

There will with little doubt be SOME kind of regression towards the mean with Beckham. Whether that is regression to the mean of tier 1 WRs or regression to the mean of a Victor Cruz (who's first season isn't that far off Beckham's) type guy is the question.

If he "regresses" to the tier 1 WR territory, then he's absolutely worth the 1.01 as he's got ~4 years of youth on the best of those guys. The flipside to that is that there is definitely more risk to him. While there may not have been WRs with a stretch as good of his that fell off substantially, there are a lot of them with stretches nearly as good as his that did. If I told you that either Odell Beckham or Dez Bryant was going to put up 1000/8 in 16 games next year, I think we'd all wager that Beckham was far more likely to be that guy than Dez. This becomes even more likely in that Beckham's situation will change somewhat substantially next year with Cruz coming back.

So, the question is how much of a risk taker are you, and how valuable is super-longterm value to you. Odell Beckham probably has 12 years of play left compared to the ~8 years of Dez/AJ/Julio. Is that extra 4 years worth the added risk that Beckham is the next Cruz? I'm a risk taker so I like Beckham, but I certainly can't fault anyone for putting him behind even the entire Dez/AJ/Julio/Demaryius group. They provide a ton of long term value with far less short term risk.

 

[ghostguy123]

There will with little doubt be SOME kind of regression towards the mean with Beckham. Whether that is regression to the mean of tier 1 WRs or regression to the mean of a Victor Cruz (who's first season isn't that far off Beckham's) type guy is the question.

If he "regresses" to the tier 1 WR territory, then he's absolutely worth the 1.01 as he's got ~4 years of youth on the best of those guys. The flipside to that is that there is definitely more risk to him. While there may not have been WRs with a stretch as good of his that fell off substantially, there are a lot of them with stretches nearly as good as his that did. If I told you that either Odell Beckham or Dez Bryant was going to put up 1000/8 in 16 games next year, I think we'd all wager that Beckham was far more likely to be that guy than Dez. This becomes even more likely in that Beckham's situation will change somewhat substantially next year with Cruz coming back.

So, the question is how much of a risk taker are you, and how valuable is super-longterm value to you. Odell Beckham probably has 12 years of play left compared to the ~8 years of Dez/AJ/Julio. Is that extra 4 years worth the added risk that Beckham is the next Cruz? I'm a risk taker so I like Beckham, but I certainly can't fault anyone for putting him behind even the entire Dez/AJ/Julio/Demaryius group. They provide a ton of long term value with far less short term risk.

Honestly, even those other top guys have risk. Dez maybe less risk, but he has those nagging back issues. Probably not a short term issue though. Aj Green has Dalton, enough risk there I would say. Julio has been hurt a few times, injury risk same as most I guess. Demaryius has the risk of Peyton leaving soon. Even if Manning stays one year, yeah 2015 will be really good for Demaryius, but then what? Definite risk there if he doesnt have a competent QB.

Beckhams risk is that we have only seen 10-12 games of it. However, those were 10-12 games where his stats were anything but a fluke. This wasn't Drew Bennett stuff here. This guy was making it happen and looked great doing it.

Of all the rankings for players/positions out there, I wouldnt blink an eye no matter what order someone puts these guys in.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

There will with little doubt be SOME kind of regression towards the mean with Beckham. Whether that is regression to the mean of tier 1 WRs or regression to the mean of a Victor Cruz (who's first season isn't that far off Beckham's) type guy is the question.

If he "regresses" to the tier 1 WR territory, then he's absolutely worth the 1.01 as he's got ~4 years of youth on the best of those guys. The flipside to that is that there is definitely more risk to him. While there may not have been WRs with a stretch as good of his that fell off substantially, there are a lot of them with stretches nearly as good as his that did. If I told you that either Odell Beckham or Dez Bryant was going to put up 1000/8 in 16 games next year, I think we'd all wager that Beckham was far more likely to be that guy than Dez. This becomes even more likely in that Beckham's situation will change somewhat substantially next year with Cruz coming back.

So, the question is how much of a risk taker are you, and how valuable is super-longterm value to you. Odell Beckham probably has 12 years of play left compared to the ~8 years of Dez/AJ/Julio. Is that extra 4 years worth the added risk that Beckham is the next Cruz? I'm a risk taker so I like Beckham, but I certainly can't fault anyone for putting him behind even the entire Dez/AJ/Julio/Demaryius group. They provide a ton of long term value with far less short term risk.

Honestly, even those other top guys have risk. Dez maybe less risk, but he has those nagging back issues. Probably not a short term issue though. Aj Green has Dalton, enough risk there I would say. Julio has been hurt a few times, injury risk same as most I guess. Demaryius has the risk of Peyton leaving soon. Even if Manning stays one year, yeah 2015 will be really good for Demaryius, but then what? Definite risk there if he doesnt have a competent QB.

Beckhams risk is that we have only seen 10-12 games of it. However, those were 10-12 games where his stats were anything but a fluke. This wasn't Drew Bennett stuff here. This guy was making it happen and looked great doing it.

Of all the rankings for players/positions out there, I wouldnt blink an eye no matter what order someone puts these guys in.

Like I said, if I told you that one of those guys was going to put up 1000/8 in 16 games next year, who would you put money on being? I think almost everyone would answer that question with "Beckham".

I am of the opinion that two guys in the same tier aren't necessarily equal, so I would consider Beckham at 1.01. That said, I can totally see someone putting him at the bottom of the tier because he has the most "those just happened to be the 12 best games he'll ever play" risk.

 

[Ernol]

This isnt about being good. This is about being the most valuable player in fantasy. The 1.01. There are several elite receivers. How many are worth the 1.01.

In redraft none, in dynasty any one of 6-7 WR's going 1st would be a fine move.

Due to RB scarcity i think Bell has to go #1 in redraft and probably dynasty as well, but can't fault someone for taking one of the elite WR's in dynasty leagues.

Luck would be an acceptable pick too. There is no definite #1 pick in dynasty, Luck, Bell, one of the 6ish elite WR's, all good picks there. I guess that implies trading down to pick 6-8 might be best move in dynasty start-ups.

Due to scarcity and depending on scoring, QB and then RB for dynasty startup are the most important iMO. 6 promising WRs were drafted this year. How many promising RBs? How about QBs?Luck and Rodgers are CLEAR teir 1 QBs. After that roll the dice. Bell Lacy Murray are CLEAR tier 1 RBs. After that, roll the dice.

Unless there was a Moss or Calvin player you have a cluster of great young WRs.

Interesing, because I think QB and RB are the least important in a dynasty. I would go WR, WR, WR, WR, WR, WR, WR, ….etc. in the 1st round of a dynasty startup. In the second round, probably another WR.

I get the scarcity at RB, but RBs are too risky and lose value too quickly in dynasty. I don't see the QB position being scarce at all (in fact, I went with Eli Manning as my QB for several of my teams this year, Ben Roethlisberger in others), although I would take Luck at some point early because he is that good (and super young).

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

There will with little doubt be SOME kind of regression towards the mean with Beckham. Whether that is regression to the mean of tier 1 WRs or regression to the mean of a Victor Cruz (who's first season isn't that far off Beckham's) type guy is the question.

If he "regresses" to the tier 1 WR territory, then he's absolutely worth the 1.01 as he's got ~4 years of youth on the best of those guys. The flipside to that is that there is definitely more risk to him. While there may not have been WRs with a stretch as good of his that fell off substantially, there are a lot of them with stretches nearly as good as his that did. If I told you that either Odell Beckham or Dez Bryant was going to put up 1000/8 in 16 games next year, I think we'd all wager that Beckham was far more likely to be that guy than Dez. This becomes even more likely in that Beckham's situation will change somewhat substantially next year with Cruz coming back.

So, the question is how much of a risk taker are you, and how valuable is super-longterm value to you. Odell Beckham probably has 12 years of play left compared to the ~8 years of Dez/AJ/Julio. Is that extra 4 years worth the added risk that Beckham is the next Cruz? I'm a risk taker so I like Beckham, but I certainly can't fault anyone for putting him behind even the entire Dez/AJ/Julio/Demaryius group. They provide a ton of long term value with far less short term risk.

I really have no idea why I'd be comparing odb to mike clayton, peyton hillis, reuben droughns, or victor cruz.

is half this board just mindless trolling, or do people on here just not watch football and have little to no idea wtf they're talking about?

can you explain to me why I should expect odb to regress to victor cruz's mean?

first of all, just to get some of the nonsense sorted out, victor cruz's first season wasn't anywhere comparable to odb --- in fact, he did basically nothing his first year.

he didn't get much opportunity until his second year when a couple other receivers left or got hurt, because he was undrafted.

just to clue you in a little bit on what we're talking about in this thread -- odb was taken with the 12th pick in the first round.

cruz had a great 2nd year, putting up nearly 100 ypg, but only logging 9 td in his 16 games, while odb was on nearly double that pace.

the following year, cruz actually scored 10 td --- 10 being greater than 9.

it's true, however, that the yardage fell off about 400 yds due to his ypc dropping from a crazy high 19 to a more realistic 13, and maybe more slot usage, but that's from vague memory.

odb was around 14, I believe.

so, I'm still trying to figure out the relevance of victor cruz's existance.

aj green was also an elite wr prospect, getting drafted 4th overall.

his production went up 300/4 in his 2nd year.

julio jones was taken 6th overall, and saw his production bump up 250/2 in his 2nd year.

dez bryant was drafted bottom of the 1st, and while the rookie year comparison might not be fair, once he ramped up to top tier production in his 3rd year he reeled off a steady 3 years of it.

also drafted bottom first, demaryius thomas took a similar 3 years to get going, and once he did he also strung 3 years of top tier production together.

antonio brown doesn't fit the list, but he followed his career year of 1500/8 up with 1700/13

calvin johnson was drafted higher than all these guys --- 2nd overall, but didn't have a historic rookie year.

his 2nd year, however, is when he really emerged with 1300/12, but followed that up with only 5 td in his 3rd year --- regression!!

after 28 td the next 2 years he sat pretty comfortably atop wr rankings as a 'proven' vet, and safe bet, but managed only 5 td again in 2012.

so, why is it I should expect some kind of down year from odb rather than any of these other 'sure thing' wr with a longer track record?

explain to me again why, in your mind, we're pegging odb at a level with mike clayton, victor cruz, or greg little.

 

[georg013]

Should he be elevated to Jerry Rice / Randy Moss status after 12 games? Guess that makes more sense. To his owners at least.

 

[ghostguy123]

This isnt about being good. This is about being the most valuable player in fantasy. The 1.01. There are several elite receivers. How many are worth the 1.01.

In redraft none, in dynasty any one of 6-7 WR's going 1st would be a fine move.

Due to RB scarcity i think Bell has to go #1 in redraft and probably dynasty as well, but can't fault someone for taking one of the elite WR's in dynasty leagues.

Luck would be an acceptable pick too. There is no definite #1 pick in dynasty, Luck, Bell, one of the 6ish elite WR's, all good picks there. I guess that implies trading down to pick 6-8 might be best move in dynasty start-ups.

Due to scarcity and depending on scoring, QB and then RB for dynasty startup are the most important iMO. 6 promising WRs were drafted this year. How many promising RBs? How about QBs?Luck and Rodgers are CLEAR teir 1 QBs. After that roll the dice. Bell Lacy Murray are CLEAR tier 1 RBs. After that, roll the dice.

Unless there was a Moss or Calvin player you have a cluster of great young WRs.

Interesing, because I think QB and RB are the least important in a dynasty. I would go WR, WR, WR, WR, WR, WR, WR, ….etc. in the 1st round of a dynasty startup. In the second round, probably another WR.

I get the scarcity at RB, but RBs are too risky and lose value too quickly in dynasty. I don't see the QB position being scarce at all (in fact, I went with Eli Manning as my QB for several of my teams this year, Ben Roethlisberger in others), although I would take Luck at some point early because he is that good (and super young).

Totally agree. The more dynasty I have played, the more I realize the true young stud WRs are just wayyyy more valuable than QB or RB. Maybe people think they will get the next Tomlinson or something.

And RBs both gain and lose value so quickly that they aren't worth anywhere near the investment of a top tier WR.