Odell Beckham 1.01 in dynasty and redraft PPR leagues in 2015? (1 Viewer)

[shader]

I think in dynasty, he without question has to go 1.01. In re-draft, perhaps there will be some debate, and we'll need to see how the offseason plays out.

I got in a great discussion about this on twitter last night. Interesting debates for sure.

My thinking on Odell:

His floor is a top 7 or 8 WR.

His ceiling is that he perhaps becomes the best WR in the game, the "Michael Jordan of football", the next Jerry Rice, or whatever other superlative will get thrown around this offseason.

For these reasons I think you have to take the gamble. What if he is that other-worldly superstar? Are the odds GOOD that he is? Not necessarily. But are the odds good that he'll be a top 5 back in 2015? I'd have to say yes.

Again, the risk/reward is juicy. Low risk, very, very high reward.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Great idea for a thread about Beckham! I'm sure the board doesn't have one discussing his 2015 status yet!

 

[steveski]

I wouldn't take him 1st overall in redraft, but in dynasty I can see it.

 

[SproutDaddy]

I couldn't see taking him 1.01 in dynasty. What he has done this year has been amazing, and I'm not taking that away from him. I probably wouldn't take him until the top of the 2nd honestly. That means I'd probably miss out. I'd rather take someone with a more proven track record. I traded for Michael Clayton after his rookie year. That one still burns.

 

[georg013]

I couldn't see taking him 1.01 in dynasty. What he has done this year has been amazing, and I'm not taking that away from him. I probably wouldn't take him until the top of the 2nd honestly. That means I'd probably miss out. I'd rather take someone with a more proven track record. I traded for Michael Clayton after his rookie year. That one still burns.

Very good post right here. Look, he had a fantastic season. My hat goes off to him. However, you have to do a LOT more than put together a 12 game run to be considered THE 1.01. What happens when teams have spent all off season game planning to stop this kid? Has there ever been a receiver in the history of the league who has kept up this pace over a career? I expect him to regress back to the mean just like everyone else who has come off a big year. Good player, but not the best ever to play the game. Yet. Three years of production then you can come talk to me if he is still putting up 12/150/2 per game. The guy had 21 targets this past week for goodness sake! Will the Giants continue to force feed him the ball when Cruz returns? Lots of question marks. Don't let the excitment take you overboard. He is not even in my top 5 yet.

 

[TDorBust]

Not in redraft is he going to be that good with Cruz back or will he fall into the Packers duo area?

 

[Bayhawks]

PPR-1.01?

No way. There are MANY good young WRs. If you pass on a young stud RB (L Bell, Lacy, etc) with the 1.1 pick and take Beckham, you will end up with an inferior RB1. If you pass on Beckham at 1.1, you could still get WRs like Evans, Dez, Julio, Maclin, Hilton, Benjamin, D Thomas, Jeffery, Cobb, etc in the 2nd (or later). The value of your RB1 and WR1 (assuming you went RB/WR or WR/RB) with the 1.1 pick would be better by taking one of the top, young RBs.

 

[SproutDaddy]

Getting him at the turn would be $$$. I'd love to have him as my WR2 or accompanied by a top tier RB. Guessing that would be highly unlikely.

 

[shader]

I couldn't see taking him 1.01 in dynasty. What he has done this year has been amazing, and I'm not taking that away from him. I probably wouldn't take him until the top of the 2nd honestly. That means I'd probably miss out. I'd rather take someone with a more proven track record. I traded for Michael Clayton after his rookie year. That one still burns.

Very good post right here. Look, he had a fantastic season. My hat goes off to him. However, you have to do a LOT more than put together a 12 game run to be considered THE 1.01. What happens when teams have spent all off season game planning to stop this kid? Has there ever been a receiver in the history of the league who has kept up this pace over a career? I expect him to regress back to the mean just like everyone else who has come off a big year. Good player, but not the best ever to play the game. Yet. Three years of production then you can come talk to me if he is still putting up 12/150/2 per game.

I don't expect him to put up 12/150/2 per game. That's not reasonable.

THE 1.01 isn't always a great pick. Calvin this year didn't work out. There is risk in all picks.

There are two ways to analyze players: 1 is by their on-film talent. The second is their production.

Beckham hit home runs in both categories.

Scouting Tape: Beckham is totally unique. He has hands of glue that are so good, that people are lining up before games to watch him warm up. This is rather unprecedented. But it's not just the hands. He has great deep speed. He gets off the line and runs routes with such precision and quickness that he seems practically unguardable. He toasted Richard Sherman. Although I haven't seen the film yet, the Eagles made it their "super bowl" to stop him and he put up a huge game. Michael Clayton and others have had big seasons, but cmon they haven't approached his level of superstardom ON TAPE. What is his weakness? A return of hamstring injuries? He seems to have no visible weaknesses.

Production: Not only did he look great, but he put up insane production. Record-breaking production. Stats that are so good, that people will spend the offseason telling us that he has no chance to do it again. He's got the stats and the tape.

So, the possibility exists that he is the next bigtime superstar. The next Jerry Rice. If I have the 1.01, I'm taking that risk, because at worst, he is going to be a top 5 wr.

If I pick Beckham 1.01 and he puts up 100-1400-9, while I might be disappointed, I'm still getting production.

But if i pass on him, and he continues this pace into next season, because he's that good...I'm going to kick myself for awhile.

 

[shader]

Getting him at the turn would be $$$. I'd love to have him as my WR2 or accompanied by a top tier RB. Guessing that would be highly unlikely.

Not gonna happen

 

[buddhacwru]

I want him on my team next year but he looks to be the recipient of the 2014 most overhyped player and I doubt I will get him. The thing for me is there are maybe 3 good TEs in Football, but there are a lot more WRs out there. I'll likely target a TE in my redraft leagues early on.

 

[fruity pebbles]

I wouldn't even take him as the #1 WR in a redraft. Antonio out scored him on a per game basis this year and I think Beckham is a higher risk to regress.

 

[tangfoot]

I would be THRILLED if someone took him at #1 overall in my redrafts next year.

 

[Pwingles]

Low risk? Eli is fairly unreliable. He has been everywhere from elite to laughable. That is potentially a big risk. Doesnt matter how great you are if your qb is busy throwing it to the other team.

Im not saying he isnt fantastic. Im also not saying he wont have a really great career. But i dont think he should be the first wr taken, let alone top pick.

 

[georg013]

Also, Antonio Brown does it without needing 21 targets a game. Remember when Percy was force fed the ball in Minnesota? How about now?

 

[BallparkFrank]

4 FBG staff members have updated their positional dynasty rankings in the past week. Beckham is the #1 WR in all 4 of those, fwiw.

 

[mikel0254]

I wouldn't even take him as the #1 WR in a redraft. Antonio out scored him on a per game basis this year and I think Beckham is a higher risk to regress.

In both of my leagues, Beckham out scored Brown on a per game basis. It obviously depends on scoring system (one PPR and one not with funky catch bonuses), but they are neck and neck. Brown didn't look this good until his 4th year. Beckham is something else. He's definitely in MY conversation for #1 overall in both redraft and dynasty.

 

[mr roboto]

Not even the consensus first WR in dynasty yet.

But a first rounder in 12 team startup? Sure.

I'd put Julio, Green and Dez ahead of him due to more historic data.

 

[netnalp]

Low risk? Eli is fairly unreliable. He has been everywhere from elite to laughable. That is potentially a big risk. Doesnt matter how great you are if your qb is busy throwing it to the other team.

Im not saying he isnt fantastic. Im also not saying he wont have a really great career. But i dont think he should be the first wr taken, let alone top pick.

Eli had a good year this year despite the record. The recent bad years are due to offensive line woes. The line was still bad this year but it's young in a couple of spots. The Giants are lacking a starting guard and they can get that in the draft or FA. The Giants should be able to solidify their line in this offseason. I doubt that they will be able to improve their RB situation enough where it would cause concern that it would take away from how much they pass.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Guys the real deal no doubt, in a dynasty I prolly would take him 1st. Redraft I'd go with the more established guys. Be too scared of a slump to make him #1.

 

[Truebluey]

#1 redraft pick next year has to be Le'Veon Bell. After that you can argue for a lot of players.

 

[EastonBlues22]

No receiver's floor is a top 7 or 8 WR.

 

[ShamrockPride]

Let's see what he does over the next 16 games when he has another more than capable receiver on the field with him before we start anointing this guy the second coming. He's probably never going to reach the target mark he got this year ever again with Victor out there.

 

[ShamrockPride]

No receiver's floor is a top 7 or 8 WR.

Calvin? Dez? Antonio?

 

[Pwingles]

Low risk? Eli is fairly unreliable. He has been everywhere from elite to laughable. That is potentially a big risk. Doesnt matter how great you are if your qb is busy throwing it to the other team.

Im not saying he isnt fantastic. Im also not saying he wont have a really great career. But i dont think he should be the first wr taken, let alone top pick.

Eli had a good year this year despite the record. The recent bad years are due to offensive line woes. The line was still bad this year but it's young in a couple of spots. The Giants are lacking a starting guard and they can get that in the draft or FA. The Giants should be able to solidify their line in this offseason. I doubt that they will be able to improve their RB situation enough where it would cause concern that it would take away from how much they pass.

Im not concerned with their running game taking from the passing attack. Their Def was pretty bad and not sure they can fix it enough to make a difference in one offseason. Theyll play from behind more often than be in a positon to eat clock

Eli's o line problems affect him, which affects obj. Same difference imo

 

[shader]

No receiver's floor is a top 7 or 8 WR.

I disagree, unless you are taking about injuries...which isn't really relevant here.

 

[shader]

Odell had the highest ppg of any wr if you factor out the games when he was on a snap count just getting adjusted to the offense.

When he became the 1, after the bye week, he was unstoppable.

 

[EastonBlues22]

No receiver's floor is a top 7 or 8 WR.

Calvin? Dez? Antonio?

Calvin finished as WR14 this year, J. Jones as WR8 (obviously missed out last year), AJ Green as WR21.

Even if you want to talk PPG, it's far from a lock when your competition is Calvin, Julio, DT, Dez, Green, Brown, Nelson, Cobb, Jeffery, Gordon, Marshall, etc. Any of those guys, and more than a few I didn't mention, could easily blow up for a top 5 WR season. You're saying there's no chance that he could finish behind 8 of those guys next year?

 

[Meatwad Reloaded]

I wouldn't even take him as the #1 WR in a redraft. Antonio out scored him on a per game basis this year and I think Beckham is a higher risk to regress.

Per game that they actually played? No way that is true.

 

[ShamrockPride]

No receiver's floor is a top 7 or 8 WR.

Calvin? Dez? Antonio?

Calvin finished as WR14 this year, J. Jones as WR8 (obviously missed out last year), AJ Green as WR21. Even if you want to talk PPG, it's far from a lock when your competition is Calvin, Julio, DT, Dez, Green, Brown, Nelson, Cobb, Jeffery, Gordon, Marshall, etc. Any of those guys, and more than a few I didn't mention, could easily blow up for a top 5 WR season. You're saying there's no chance that he could finish behind 8 of those guys next year?

Calvin missed 3 games this year...so yes, that's what I'm saying. As long as he's healthy, which you can say about any player.

 

[georg013]

Being hot and being great are two different things. Most rankings reflect hot, not great. Funny, I read a similar thread about taking Gio 1.01. Then Jeremy Hill happened. Take that as you may.

 

[EastonBlues22]

No receiver's floor is a top 7 or 8 WR.

Calvin? Dez? Antonio?

Calvin finished as WR14 this year, J. Jones as WR8 (obviously missed out last year), AJ Green as WR21. Even if you want to talk PPG, it's far from a lock when your competition is Calvin, Julio, DT, Dez, Green, Brown, Nelson, Cobb, Jeffery, Gordon, Marshall, etc. Any of those guys, and more than a few I didn't mention, could easily blow up for a top 5 WR season. You're saying there's no chance that he could finish behind 8 of those guys next year?

Calvin missed 3 games this year...so yes, that's what I'm saying. As long as he's healthy, which you can say about any player.

I think that's pretty foolish. All those guys have put up top 8ish seasons in the last two years (I'm not going to check every scoring system to see if that's a universal fact). All are capable of 90+/1400+/10+ seasons...with a good number having had seasons significantly better than that. As a group, they probably average 145+ targets a year.

Beckham's efficiency is going to regress. There's simply no way anyone can rationally expect him to continue catching 69% of his targets and averaging 1 TD a game with Eli as his QB. Brown and Cobb were the two league leaders (among those highly targeted) at 71-72%, and they both have much more accurate QBs throwing to them. Dez is the only WR who has hit 16 TDs since 2011 (when Calvin did it), and you have to go back to 2007 to find the next occurrence after that (Moss).

Once that happens, where he ends up will largely be a matter of how many targets he gets. That's going to be a product of how well Eli is playing, how well the Giants are running the ball, how teams are choosing to defend the Giants, what other weapons are on the team, and game flow (being well behind vs well ahead). It's impossible to predict with any degree of certainty how any of those things will play out right now. He could lead the league in targets, or not break the top 10.

To highlight what that means: Dez finished at #12 in targets this year with 138. He caught 64% of those targets for 1320 yards (averaging 15.0 YPC) with 16 TDs to finish as the WR4 in standard scoring this year. If he keeps those same numbers but catches "only" 10 TDs, he finishes as WR8 in a year when both Calvin and AJ Green missed extensive time. Catching 9 TDs would have put him at WR10. In 2013 Dez was a TD and a fumble away from being outside the top 8.

Dropping out of the top 8 at WR is a pretty easy proposition.

 

[Jerry Curl]

I love Beckham but the hype has gone too far.

 

[Jerry Curl]

No receiver's floor is a top 7 or 8 WR.

I disagree, unless you are taking about injuries...which isn't really relevant here.

You also think Beckham should be the #1 overall pick in dynasty.

 

[mr roboto]

WR is a deeeeeeeeeeeeeep position. There's no singular dominant WR (like Moss or Calvin).

Now young 3 down RBs? That's a much more scarce resource.

 

[RBM]

After spending some time in the "Next stud qb" thread, I think I'm going Luck or Rodgers at 1.01

 

[cstu]

I love Beckham but the hype has gone too far.

Agree - Dez, Green and Julio are still young (25/26), in their prime and proven.

 

[cstu]

That's going to be a product of how well Eli is playing

How much can we count on that next year?

 

[Pipes]

I love Beckham but the hype has gone too far.

Agree - Dez, Green and Julio are still young (25/26), in their prime and proven.

Give me Beckham over Green any day. Until Green gets a better QB I feel that he's at his ceiling which is about what Odell did in 12 games.

 

[buck naked]

Great idea for a thread about Beckham! I'm sure the board doesn't have one discussing his 2015 status yet!

Now THIS is what I expect from the Shark Pool! The first response is criticizing a new thread on a same player but on a different topic. Now people are getting back to be tools!

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Great idea for a thread about Beckham! I'm sure the board doesn't have one discussing his 2015 status yet!

Now THIS is what I expect from the Shark Pool! The first response is criticizing a new thread on a same player but on a different topic. Now people are getting back to be tools!

There is a 30 page thread on OBJ. Roughly half of the posts on the last 5 pages relate to where he should be taken in 2015 including a discussion of where he fits in with the existing elite players going forward. Why is this thread necessary?

 

[Pipes]

Great idea for a thread about Beckham! I'm sure the board doesn't have one discussing his 2015 status yet!

Now THIS is what I expect from the Shark Pool! The first response is criticizing a new thread on a same player but on a different topic. Now people are getting back to be tools!

There is a 30 page thread on OBJ. Roughly half of the posts on the last 5 pages relate to where he should be taken in 2015 including a discussion of where he fits in with the existing elite players going forward. Why is this thread necessary?

Who cares the fantasy season is over so nothing wrong with starting a thread talking about 2015 specifically.

 

[Jerry Curl]

I love Beckham but the hype has gone too far.

Agree - Dez, Green and Julio are still young (25/26), in their prime and proven.

Give me Beckham over Green any day. Until Green gets a better QB I feel that he's at his ceiling which is about what Odell did in 12 games.

I will say it every time someone puts crazy talk out there.

The hype is going too far and I love some Beckham.

 

[Jerry Curl]

After spending some time in the "Next stud qb" thread, I think I'm going Luck or Rodgers at 1.01

Luck or Rodgers is the no brainer #1 overall pick in any format.

 

[shader]

Great idea for a thread about Beckham! I'm sure the board doesn't have one discussing his 2015 status yet!

Now THIS is what I expect from the Shark Pool! The first response is criticizing a new thread on a same player but on a different topic. Now people are getting back to be tools!

There is a 30 page thread on OBJ. Roughly half of the posts on the last 5 pages relate to where he should be taken in 2015 including a discussion of where he fits in with the existing elite players going forward. Why is this thread necessary?

I apologize for not looking at every thread and dissecting them thoroughly in order to determine whether the need for this thread exists. Why do YOU feel the need to post in this thread if it is so irrelevant. Here's a tip: Skip this thread and go to the one you prefer.

This thread is based on ONE subject: Not Odell Beckham as a player, (which will eventually make the 30 page threat 200 pages over the next decade), but Odell Beckham and his draft positioning for 2015. That's it.

Ok, my rant is over. You can return to your previous job of policing the number of threads in the shark pool. Sorry to pull you from it.

 

[shader]

I love Beckham but the hype has gone too far.

Agree - Dez, Green and Julio are still young (25/26), in their prime and proven.

Give me Beckham over Green any day. Until Green gets a better QB I feel that he's at his ceiling which is about what Odell did in 12 games.

I will say it every time someone puts crazy talk out there.

The hype is going too far and I love some Beckham.

Perhaps you are right, we will see.

But these things people are saying about Dez, Julio and Antonio such as "they are proven, they've been in the league 2-3 years, they have a track record" are the exact reasons I'm taking Odell. We just don't know what he is. Not only do we see his great talent, but we see unbelievable production. What if this is who he is? What if he's this much better than every other WR out there?

I also don't buy the "hype" angle. Hype would be if Odell made that spectacular catch, and lived off that catch for the entire season, and people watched him before the game, and he made a few entertaining circus play. There is no hype to his production. He produced at a phenomenal rate EVERY SINGLE TIME HE TOOK THE FIELD, aside from the first game or two where he was on a snap count.

So for me, that's why I'm taking him. I don't see how you can call his insane production hype. Why is it hype to think he might continue to do what he's already done? For people to take him at 1.08 or 1.09, they must be projecting that he is going to see a rather significant drop in numbers. Why?

Could he massively bust? I guess so. But his talent is so off the charts that it seems like a tough proposition to see him completely bust unless he gets injured or Eli gets injured and a horrible QB takes over.

 

[Banger]

I wouldn't even take him as the #1 WR in a redraft. Antonio out scored him on a per game basis this year and I think Beckham is a higher risk to regress.

Why? Why can't he get better as most rookies tend to do? Won't his recognition of defenses improve, rapport withManning, know ledg of defenses and their tendencies? Everyone keeps spouting regression to the mean but we don't know what his mean is. What we've seen is he came in and did insane things and for that reason because he was so good he has to regress.

It's funny that everyone is using Brown as the benchmark this year but let's not forget he was about the 10th wr off the board last year.

 

[georg013]

I wouldn't even take him as the #1 WR in a redraft. Antonio out scored him on a per game basis this year and I think Beckham is a higher risk to regress.

Why? Why can't he get better as most rookies tend to do? Won't his recognition of defenses improve, rapport withManning, know ledg of defenses and their tendencies? Everyone keeps spouting regression to the mean but we don't know what his mean is. What we've seen is he came in and did insane things and for that reason because he was so good he has to regress.

It's funny that everyone is using Brown as the benchmark this year but let's not forget he was about the 10th wr off the board last year.

That's because everyone faps to 6'3 or taller.

 

[georg013]

I love Beckham but the hype has gone too far.

Agree - Dez, Green and Julio are still young (25/26), in their prime and proven.

Give me Beckham over Green any day. Until Green gets a better QB I feel that he's at his ceiling which is about what Odell did in 12 games.

I will say it every time someone puts crazy talk out there.

The hype is going too far and I love some Beckham.

Perhaps you are right, we will see.

But these things people are saying about Dez, Julio and Antonio such as "they are proven, they've been in the league 2-3 years, they have a track record" are the exact reasons I'm taking Odell. We just don't know what he is. Not only do we see his great talent, but we see unbelievable production. What if this is who he is? What if he's this much better than every other WR out there?

I also don't buy the "hype" angle. Hype would be if Odell made that spectacular catch, and lived off that catch for the entire season, and people watched him before the game, and he made a few entertaining circus play. There is no hype to his production. He produced at a phenomenal rate EVERY SINGLE TIME HE TOOK THE FIELD, aside from the first game or two where he was on a snap count.

So for me, that's why I'm taking him. I don't see how you can call his insane production hype. Why is it hype to think he might continue to do what he's already done? For people to take him at 1.08 or 1.09, they must be projecting that he is going to see a rather significant drop in numbers. Why?

Could he massively bust? I guess so. But his talent is so off the charts that it seems like a tough proposition to see him completely bust unless he gets injured or Eli gets injured and a horrible QB takes over.

No receiver in the HISTORY of the NFL has ever maintained this pace. Ever. You're going to have to remove the Beckham-colored glasses for a second to see that. No one. Not Randy Moss. Not Jerry Rice. Not Calvin Johnson. No one. Ever. At 21 targets per game, he would be in line for 336 targets. Is that even realistic? Some guys take THREE years to reach that total. Are we to believe that the next coming of Jerry Rice (on steroids) is here to change the game, receive 17+ targets every game, for a statline of 175/2,432/28 year after year? Or, will he start commanding added attention, the way Calvin does, come back to Earth and be a very good receiver. Which one is more likely? He will have DBs and safeties draped all over him next year. Count on it. With Cruz back, they won't have to force feed Beckham the ball every other pass attempt. I'm not saying he is going to bust. Just that expectations should be tempered. Be excited about your guy, he's good. Just not 1.01 excited. Personally, I need to see more.

 

[fredsavage]

He's been commanding defensive attention.... See Rams game