Offensive Projections are LIVE (1 Viewer)

[David Dodds]

QB Projections

RB Projections

WR Projections

TE Projections

IDP, PK and Defensive Projections will be posted later today.

Enjoy.

 

[noneother]

wonderful, thanks... I love waking up to you guys!!

 

[David Dodds]

I want to add that I KNOW all projections are not created equally. Whether you agree with all my numbers or not, rest assured that a lot of thought and time went into these numbers.

In fact, I have 45 hours of work into this first set of numbers. I doubt any other info site spends 45 hours on their numbers all preseason.

Why does it take me so long to do these?

Because I try and analyze everything going on with a team. What changed from 2005 to 2006 (coaching, free agents, rookies, schemes, etc)? Will a team run or pass more? How will these touches be allocated? And I attempt to do it against what a player has shown in his history for yards per carry, etc. Additionally, I like to look at team history to get a feel for tendencies / opportunities / production success.

and then after I do that for every team, I make sure all of the team data adds up. For every pass there is a reception. Some are not listed in these numbers (about 40 rushing yards and up to 100 receiving yards are lumped as other, but I definitely have accounted for every touch).

I then look at the rank by position and see if it matches up closely with three year AVT data. I don't look for a perfect match, but I want the curves to approximate reality especially around picks 12-30 for a position.

I then make sure that the aggregate list of data matches up with three year norms for a wide variety of stats.

Here are those aggregates:

Pass Attempts: We project 16,478 for this season.

NFL data - 16,493 (2003), 16,354 (2004), 16,465 (2005)

Pass Completions/Receptions: We project 9,793

NFL data - 9,695 (2003), 9,772 (2004), 9,790 (2005)

Passing Percentage: We project 59.43%

NFL data - 58.8% (2003), 59.8% (2004), 59.5% (2005)

Passing/Receiving Yards: We project 112,084

NFL data - 109,467 (2003), 115,338 (2004), 11,721 (2005)

Passing Average: We project 6.80 yards per attempt

NFL data - 6.64 (2003), 7.05 (2004), 6.79 (2005)

Passing/Receiving TDs: We project 678

NFL data - 654 (2003), 732 (2004), 644 (2005)

Interceptions: We project 516

NFL data - 538 (2003), 524 (2004), 507 (2005)

Rush Attempts: We project 14,461

NFL data - 14,508 (2003), 14,428 (2004), 14,375 (2005)

Rush Yards: We project 58,741

60,341 (2003), 59,709 (2004), 57,583 (2005)

Rushing Average: We project 4.04 yards per carry

NFL data - 4.16 (2003), 4.14 (2004), 4.01 (2005)

Rushing TDs: We project 423

427 (2003), 416 (2004), 431 (2005)

Hopefully this will give you all confidence that these numbers have some thought behind them. Some things still translate to how we see those roles within teams, etc.

Feel free to offer critiques to the numbers. That's how they get better.

 

[cscmtp]

impressive stuff. thanks for your hard work!

 

[David Dodds]

IDP Projections now posted. They were prepared by John Norton.

DL Projections

LB Projections

DB Projections

Note all of this data now appears on the player pages as well

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

awesome.

one thing that stood out to me when I looked at the RBs was the disparity in carries between these players:

Clinton Portis - 340

Cadillac Williams - 325

Steven Jackson - 290

Ronnie Brown - 255

Portis has 343 and 352 carries the past two seasons so he can definitely handle it, but I'm a little concerned about Cadillac holding up under that type of workload for the whole season. Also interesting that both of these backs are listed at 5'11", 205lbs yet are projected for so many more carries than Steven Jackson (6'2", 233lbs) and Ronnie Brown (6'1", 223lbs) are.

things I noticed at QB:

Carson Palmer with 26 TD passes but only ranked #15 and slightly behind Billy Volek with only 19 TD passes.

almost identical stats for Bledsoe from last year to this year despite the addition of Owens.

 

[David Dodds]

awesome.one thing that stood out to me when I looked at the RBs was the disparity in carries between these players:Clinton Portis - 340Cadillac Williams - 325Steven Jackson - 290Ronnie Brown - 255Portis has 343 and 352 carries the past two seasons so he can definitely handle it, but I'm a little concerned about Cadillac holding up under that type of workload for the whole season. Also interesting that both of these backs are listed at 5'11", 205lbs yet are projected for so many more carries than Steven Jackson (6'2", 233lbs) and Ronnie Brown (6'1", 223lbs) are.things I noticed at QB:Carson Palmer with 26 TD passes but only ranked #15 and slightly behind Billy Volek with only 19 TD passes.almost identical stats for Bledsoe from last year to this year despite the addition of Owens.

Not saying I am right on these situations at all, but will discussortis has shown he can handle the workload. I like his chances to succeed this year as the Redskins have a lot better receivers. This should take defenders out of the box. I think he is a safe play this year.Williams - He had 88 carries after the first three games as a rookie so I feel confident Gruden will give him every opportunity to carry the entire load. We likely disagree on whether he will breakdown or not. I would expect with a season under his belt, Williams will be more durable.Steven Jackson - This one is tough. The Rams go from a pass every down team (Martz) to a one that will try and run a lot more. I worry that this transition will not be a smooth one this season. They drafted two tight ends, but neglected improving an OL that is soft at run blocking. I don't doubt Steven Jackson's ability. I doubt the Rams having a good enough team that will allow him to get the carries.Ronnie Brown - I'm a skeptic that he can handle the increased workload without breaking down. He has been sharing time for a long time now and until he demonstrates he is a 300 carry guy, call me a non-believer. I know the same argument could be made for Cadillac Williams, but I see the runners as different.Carson Palmer would probably be QB #2 if we know he will start and be productive right out of the gate. This projection does not have him starting week 1. As I know more I will tweak accordingly. Same goes with Culpepper. I am projecting Volek to be the starter in Tennessee and McNair to go to Baltimore. I will tweak if that does not hold up (but I believe it will eventually). Tennessee under Norm Chow and with a soft defense puts up a lot of passing yards. Volek is a huge value this year if he can play all year.Regarding Bledsoe, I simply think last year was a bit of a fluke for him statistically at his age (and in this Dallas offense). Everything went right. He had multiple shootouts, etc. I like Bledsoe this year, but I think without Owens he would have regressed a lot to the mean. This team will also try and run a lot (even with Owens). They also have a nice defense so I do not expect the number of shootouts they had last year.

 

[noneother]

David,

Would it be worth your while to add comments like those addressing Aaron's observations into the player notes? with a date, for posterity? not to mention everyone will have the opportunity to review them?

thanks again!!

 

[David Dodds]

This is what my schedule looks like right now:

- Finish the magazine. We have a hard deadline to have everything wrapped up within days here. It goes to the printer on Wednesday.

- Launch the site player and team pages

- Launch the VBD App and Draft Dominator programs

So basically I am going to be swamped until about Tuesday of next week.

Once I clear these tasks, I will attempt something like this that addresses the biggest questions that arise in this thread.

 

[code]

 

[deadstick]

Mr. Norton, I don't see Mario Williams in the DL rankings anywhere (but do see other rookies) - did you forget him?

 

[Islander]

NICE



I remember reading a few weeks ago that the projections will evolve into a "consensus" set of projections later this summer, whereas this is intially one man's opinion, correct?

 

[David Dodds]

Mr. Norton, I don't see Mario Williams in the DL rankings anywhere (but do see other rookies) - did you forget him?

He tagged the wrong Player ID. I will get this fixed in a minute here.

 

[David Dodds]

NICE I remember reading a few weeks ago that the projections will evolve into a "consensus" set of projections later this summer, whereas this is intially one man's opinion, correct?

We will be offering 4 different offensive projections soon. These will also feed our newly developed Projections Dominator which will allow you to see these 4 inputs, last three year's actual data and use weighted averages, your own input, etc to craft a unique data set for use with the Draft Dominator. This way you could be a in a league where everyone is using the Draft Dominator yet they still may not know you are targetting with your pick.It's the natural evolution of what we have created.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

NICE



I remember reading a few weeks ago that the projections will evolve into a "consensus" set of projections later this summer, whereas this is intially one man's opinion, correct?

We will be offering 4 different offensive projections soon. These will also feed our newly developed Projections Dominator which will allow you to see these 4 inputs, last three year's actual data and use weighted averages, your own input, etc to craft a unique data set for use with the Draft Dominator. This way you could be a in a league where everyone is using the Draft Dominator yet they still may not know you are targetting with your pick.It's the natural evolution of what we have created.

Or, in the state of Kansas, God gave it to you.

 

[David Yudkin]

I'm not sure how the Cowboys add Owens and Bledsoe scores WORSE than last year.

 

[David Dodds]

I'm not sure how the Cowboys add Owens and Bledsoe scores WORSE than last year.

I answered it earlier in the thread.

 

[David Yudkin]

I'm not sure how the Cowboys add Owens and Bledsoe scores WORSE than last year.

I answered it earlier in the thread.

Sorry. Didn't see it. Disagree, but such is life.

 

[Bailiver]

It's nice to know that while I am fast asleep in my bed, my $20 subscription fee is working hard for me.

 

[P Boy]

If you have Tatum Bell at 5.0 ypc and Dayne at 4.8 ypc, I'll guarantee you, barring injury, that you have the number of carries by each guy switched. In that circumstance, Dayne gets the larger share of the work, no question.

I also find it very interesting that you have Bush with more carries than McAllister.

Seems like you are giving too much credit to the CoP RB and not enough to the featured RB.

Just my initial whining...

 

[Joe Bryant]

It's nice to know that while I am fast asleep in my bed, my $20 subscription fee is working hard for me.

Baliver. That's the idea. Enjoy.J

 

[Joe Bryant]

If you have Tatum Bell at 5.0 ypc and Dayne at 4.8 ypc, I'll guarantee you, barring injury, that you have the number of carries by each guy switched. In that circumstance, Dayne gets the larger share of the work, no question.

I also find it very interesting that you have Bush with more carries than McAllister.

Seems like you are giving too much credit to the CoP RB and not enough to the featured RB.

Just my initial whining...

Hi PB,The New Orleans situation will definitely be one to watch there. We feel pretty good with these projected carries (or at least as good as you can feel in May).

How do you see the carries splitting between Bush and McAllister?

J

 

[QUEZILLA]

IMO I would rank Caddy lower than Ronie Brown simply because Caddy has Alstott stealing TDs, and Pittman stealing a few carries. Also, the Bucs have a tough schedule.

Then again, Gruden rode the Caddy into the dirt last season, and he may do it again.

 

[David Dodds]

If you have Tatum Bell at 5.0 ypc and Dayne at 4.8 ypc, I'll guarantee you, barring injury, that you have the number of carries by each guy switched. In that circumstance, Dayne gets the larger share of the work, no question.I also find it very interesting that you have Bush with more carries than McAllister.Seems like you are giving too much credit to the CoP RB and not enough to the featured RB.Just my initial whining...

You could definitely be right about Dayne. I either need to lower his ypc or name him the starter if he can get 4.8 ypc. I still see a split situation there though as neither look like they will carry the full load. I fully expect these two players to move a lot this preseason as we get a better handle on their roles.Regarding McAllister, he will need to show he is the better runner coming off ACL surgery. I suspect we will see a lot of Reggie Bush right away. And yes i am a believer that if he gets his shot, this competition will be over. But they are paying McAllister too much money to ride the pine (plus they can use Reggie in a variety of ways). Both will get carries this year, but if Bush gets the contract done early and is in camp on time I have no problem projecting he will be better than McAllister this year.

 

[LHUCKS]

If you have Tatum Bell at 5.0 ypc and Dayne at 4.8 ypc, I'll guarantee you, barring injury, that you have the number of carries by each guy switched.  In that circumstance, Dayne gets the larger share of the work, no question.

I agree with most of what PonyBoy has said this offseason regarding the Denver RB situation.

OBTW...RB critique ETA is about three hours. :sneakpeak:

 

[P Boy]

If you have Tatum Bell at 5.0 ypc and Dayne at 4.8 ypc, I'll guarantee you, barring injury, that you have the number of carries by each guy switched.  In that circumstance, Dayne gets the larger share of the work, no question.

I also find it very interesting that you have Bush with more carries than McAllister.

Seems like you are giving too much credit to the CoP RB and not enough to the featured RB.

Just my initial whining... 

Hi PB,The New Orleans situation will definitely be one to watch there. We feel pretty good with these projected carries (or at least as good as you can feel in May).

How do you see the carries splitting between Bush and McAllister?

J

Personally, I see the carries as breaking with McAllister getting 230 carries and Bush getting 165 carries - or a ratio very similar to that. Bush will get touches catching the football also, but I think McAllister does the dirty work, and he'll get enough relief from Bush to limit his work some, which will help him with the injury recovery.

 

[P Boy]

You could definitely be right about Dayne. I either need to lower his ypc or name him the starter if he can get 4.8 ypc. I still see a split situation there though as neither look like they will carry the full load. I fully expect these two players to move a lot this preseason as we get a better handle on their roles.

 

[LHUCKS]

If you have Tatum Bell at 5.0 ypc and Dayne at 4.8 ypc, I'll guarantee you, barring injury, that you have the number of carries by each guy switched.  In that circumstance, Dayne gets the larger share of the work, no question.

I also find it very interesting that you have Bush with more carries than McAllister.

Seems like you are giving too much credit to the CoP RB and not enough to the featured RB.

Just my initial whining... 

Hi PB,The New Orleans situation will definitely be one to watch there. We feel pretty good with these projected carries (or at least as good as you can feel in May).

How do you see the carries splitting between Bush and McAllister?

J

Personally, I see the carries as breaking with McAllister getting 230 carries and Bush getting 165 carries - or a ratio very similar to that. Bush will get touches catching the football also, but I think McAllister does the dirty work, and he'll get enough relief from Bush to limit his work some, which will help him with the injury recovery.

I agree with this...I'd be shocked if Bush gets 200 carries...wouldn't be shocked to see him get 50 receptions as a rookie though. Think Brian Wesbtrook with less carries, but a far superior receiver. People have a hard time envisioning Bush's stats, because few have entered the game with his skillset. I think he's going to produce some very unique stats. A lot more receiving than most expect with fewer rush attempts, yet an insance YPC.

 

[Joe Bryant]

If you have Tatum Bell at 5.0 ypc and Dayne at 4.8 ypc, I'll guarantee you, barring injury, that you have the number of carries by each guy switched.  In that circumstance, Dayne gets the larger share of the work, no question.

I also find it very interesting that you have Bush with more carries than McAllister.

Seems like you are giving too much credit to the CoP RB and not enough to the featured RB.

Just my initial whining... 

Hi PB,The New Orleans situation will definitely be one to watch there. We feel pretty good with these projected carries (or at least as good as you can feel in May).

How do you see the carries splitting between Bush and McAllister?

J

Personally, I see the carries as breaking with McAllister getting 230 carries and Bush getting 165 carries - or a ratio very similar to that. Bush will get touches catching the football also, but I think McAllister does the dirty work, and he'll get enough relief from Bush to limit his work some, which will help him with the injury recovery.

Thanks PB. We'll see of course. I think with the new coaching staff that Bush will see more carries than that. At least until I see McAllister in live action. But I can see what you're saying as well.J

 

[P Boy]

Something else that really jumps out at me is that you have a cumulative 61 catches by DET RBs.

That just is way too low in a Martz offense.

We can debate about who will be carrying the load there - whether it's Jones, Pinner ( :X ), or Calhoun (my personal choice, but I admit severe bias), but one thing we can be pretty certain of is that Martz will get whomever is in the backfield a significant number of catches. I would expect the top RB reciever in DET to have at least 50-55 catches by themselves. Martz loves to exploit the RB/LB mismatch.

The TEN breakdown is sure interesting. I have no clue as to beginning how to guess it wioll shake out & would be curious as to your thought process on how you made your decisions there.

 

[BassNBrew]

Issues I see with the Carolina stats...

RB receiving yardage will not drop off from two consecutive years of approx 650 to 450.

Drew Carter is the number 3 WR in Carolina. I envision a Chris Henry/Stokely type role and I have him at 38-684-6. He proved last year that he can get open deep and the word out of mini-camp was that he was the most impressive player on the field and was basically scoring TDs at will.

Smith and Johnson won't score 18 TDs between the two. I wish I could provide more insight into the split, but I'll need to see Keyshawn play in pre-season. Smith should get some more rushing stats.

Williams ypc will be closer to Foster than Shelton. Shelton will be at 3.5 or below.

All in all, looks very good.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Something else that really jumps out at me is that you have a cumulative 61 catches by DET RBs.

That just is way too low in a Martz offense.

We can debate about who will be carrying the load there - whether it's Jones, Pinner ( :X ), or Calhoun (my personal choice, but I admit severe bias), but one thing we can be pretty certain of is that Martz will get whomever is in the backfield a significant number of catches. I would expect the top RB reciever in DET to have at least 50-55 catches by themselves. Martz loves to exploit the RB/LB mismatch.

Thanks PB. You bring up an interesting point. Can you take a guy with a certain philosophy like Martz who had the QB talent in Warner / Bulger and the RB talent in Faulk / Jackson and plug that into a situation like Detroit with their talent and have similar trends? It's a balance between playing like you want to play and playing to the strengths of the talent you have. It's been fun to watch guys like Parcells do this when you have a "run" oriented coach lead the league in passing attempts with Bledsoe and such. It's sort of a chicken and the egg question.

I've no doubt Martz would love to throw to the RBs where one puts up Faulk type receptions. Just not sure if they'll be able to execute what they want to do. Definitely agree with your premise though.

J

 

[mbuehner]

I agree with this...I'd be shocked if Bush gets 200 carries...wouldn't be shocked to see him get 50 receptions as a rookie though. Think Brian Wesbtrook with less carries, but a far superior receiver.

Well, im not ready to go quite that far. Westbrook is probably the best recieving RB in the league right now. His numbers receiving arent far off Marshall Faulks in his heyday, he just doesnt have near the ground game to be in that kind of company.Bush is an incredible talent, but so is Westbrook and that shouldnt be forgotten. I think Bush is going to have a bit more trouble than anticipated adjusting to the League. Every defense he goes up against is going to be out to give him a welcome, and the game speed is a shock to every rookie. I think Bush will end up being a better receiver and runner than Westbrook, but not this year. As a rookie with a price on his head, I have him somewhere around Chris Perry country but with better yards per catch and a couple more TDs.

 

[P Boy]

Man, I really do hate to nitpick you guyys because you've done such a great job.

I do know that Martz will install his O regardless of whether the team can accomplish it or not. The guy is not rational when it comes to that. It's kind of like a college basketball coach that runs a 40 minute full court press D - he's going to install that D even if he doesn't have the depth to do it & he'll rely on players adjusting or finding other players who will fit it. Seriously - Warner was literally bagging groceries before being forced into starting in STL due to injury, and then turning in the 3 most prolific years by a QB ever in NFL history.

A couple of other things I noticed:

Scott Linehan's TEs have averaged 72 catches in his 3 years as the MIN OC and MIA TEs caught 70 balls last year, but you have STL TEs catching 21 balls with Linehan as a HC. I think TEs are critical to making Linehan's O function - and there isn't a FB of note to take the catches. I think you're vastly underrating Klopfenstein's & Byrd's impact - particularly Klopfenstein, since he has the body & ability to step right in and make plays as a starter.

I also see JAX missing about 25 catches somewhere - and the numbers are short in the WR area. Leftwich averages over 18 completions per game as a starter when he finishes the game, but you all have him at about 16.5 completions per game. The JAX RB & TE receiving numbers look about right, but the WRs look short. I like the way you divvied up the numbers between the JAX WRs, but I think there's more catches there available to them.

Again - being very picky. Sorry about the negative feedback, because I think you guys have really done a superb job.

 

[Nigel Tufnel]

 

[bigreese82]

Good job on the Titans wrs projections!!!!

I do think Kinney will get far less than 50 rec but Scaife will be more than the 18 projected for him

 

[Ditkaless Wonders]

Pony Boy and SSOG need to be on staff. Both are extemely knowlegable and do their homework.

 

[P Boy]

Pony Boy and SSOG need to be on staff. Both are extemely knowlegable and do their homework.

I think you are asking for the demise of FBGs. There aren't enough quaaludes available for these guys if they had to deal with me on a regular basis, and the acumen would drop by a massive amount.Hell, all the staff except Baker probably had their IQs drop by 20 points just by you making a comment like that. Maybe Baker's too, but I don't know if there is such a thing as negative IQ.

 

[Kleck]

I think David will take heat for his interpretation of the Seattle WRs, but I also think he nailed it.

I see Engram being the clear #2.

 

[BassNBrew]

Interesting call on Engram 1.5x Burleson. Huge value play if this is the correct call.

 

[Nigel Tufnel]

I think David will take heat for his interpretation of the Seattle WRs, but I also think he nailed it.

I see Engram being the clear #2.

Not a ton of love for D-Jax. Worried about the knee?

 

[Tiger Fan]

I want to add that I KNOW all projections are not created equally. Whether you agree with all my numbers or not, rest assured that a lot of thought and time went into these numbers.

In fact, I have 45 hours of work into this first set of numbers. I doubt any other info site spends 45 hours on their numbers all preseason.

Why does it take me so long to do these?

Because I try and analyze everything going on with a team. What changed from 2005 to 2006 (coaching, free agents, rookies, schemes, etc)? Will a team run or pass more? How will these touches be allocated? And I attempt to do it against what a player has shown in his history for yards per carry, etc. Additionally, I like to look at team history to get a feel for tendencies / opportunities / production success.

and then after I do that for every team, I make sure all of the team data adds up. For every pass there is a reception. Some are not listed in these numbers (about 40 rushing yards and up to 100 receiving yards are lumped as other, but I definitely have accounted for every touch).

I then look at the rank by position and see if it matches up closely with three year AVT data. I don't look for a perfect match, but I want the curves to approximate reality especially around picks 12-30 for a position.

I then make sure that the aggregate list of data matches up with three year norms for a wide variety of stats.

Here are those aggregates:

Pass Attempts: We project 16,478 for this season.

NFL data - 16,493 (2003), 16,354 (2004), 16,465 (2005)

Pass Completions/Receptions: We project 9,793

NFL data - 9,695 (2003), 9,772 (2004), 9,790 (2005)

Passing Percentage: We project 59.43%

NFL data - 58.8% (2003), 59.8% (2004), 59.5% (2005)

Passing/Receiving Yards: We project 112,084

NFL data - 109,467 (2003), 115,338 (2004), 11,721 (2005)

Passing Average: We project 6.80 yards per attempt

NFL data - 6.64 (2003), 7.05 (2004), 6.79 (2005)

Passing/Receiving TDs: We project 678

NFL data - 654 (2003), 732 (2004), 644 (2005)

Interceptions: We project 516

NFL data - 538 (2003), 524 (2004), 507 (2005)

Rush Attempts: We project 14,461

NFL data - 14,508 (2003), 14,428 (2004), 14,375 (2005)

Rush Yards: We project 58,741

60,341 (2003), 59,709 (2004), 57,583 (2005)

Rushing Average: We project 4.04 yards per carry

NFL data - 4.16 (2003), 4.14 (2004), 4.01 (2005)

Rushing TDs: We project 423

427 (2003), 416 (2004), 431 (2005)

Hopefully this will give you all confidence that these numbers have some thought behind them. Some things still translate to how we see those roles within teams, etc.

Feel free to offer critiques to the numbers. That's how they get better.

DD, a few questions here:1. Have you done this 3 year norm comparison in years past?

2. Are you (as in DD) only doing this, or do the FBG overall projections reflect this comparison also?

 

[Kleck]

I think David will take heat for his interpretation of the Seattle WRs, but I also think he nailed it.

I see Engram being the clear #2.

Not a ton of love for D-Jax. Worried about the knee?

I think Jackson will do better than that. I was referring specifically to the WR2 in Seattle.

 

[David Dodds]

Not a ton of love for D-Jax. Worried about the knee?

Yes I am definitely worried about the off-season surgeries. He posted great PPG stats though so could shoot up the boards if I see him fully recovered. But for right now, I am taking a wait and see approach.

 

[jburns]

We will be offering 4 different offensive projections soon. These will also feed our newly developed Projections Dominator which will allow you to see these 4 inputs, last three year's actual data and use weighted averages, your own input, etc to craft a unique data set for use with the Draft Dominator. This way you could be a in a league where everyone is using the Draft Dominator yet they still may not know you are targetting with your pick.It's the natural evolution of what we have created.

WOW! now this is what i'm talking about!!!

 

[David Dodds]

DD, a few questions here:1. Have you done this 3 year norm comparison in years past?2. Are you (as in DD) only doing this, or do the FBG overall projections reflect this comparison also?

1. Yes I have done it this way for the last few years (adding to the technique every year). I know the importance of good numbers. But I also realize that one person's opinion can be slanted. Hence the deployment of 4 sets of offensive numbers this year (Wood, Henry, Smith and I). We also will have at least 2 sets of IDP numbers.2. There is no such things as FBG overall projections. We have staff rankings, but everyone does not provide projections. I don't see us going down that path either. I do know Bob Henry, Jason Wood and Chris Smith employ similar technigues that I use. Those will be the other three that will provide offensive input to the Projections Dominator / Draft Dominators this year. It's funny because even though we use similar techniques, sometimes we differ wildly on expectations on teams and players. That's the nature of this beast.3. The other thing I plan on doing a lot more this year is listening to the well-thought out arguments/thoughts.Already today I agree these need to be tweaked slightly:- Make Dayne the starter (more carries); Less carries for Bell- Add a few more carries to Ronnie Brown- Take a few carries away from Cadillac Williams- Add more production to the St. Louis TEs- Add more production to the Detroit RBs

 

[joffer]

Already today I agree these need to be tweaked slightly:- Make Dayne the starter (more carries); Less carries for Bell

don't do it, Dave. be strong!!!!!

 

[David Dodds]

DD, a few questions here:1.  Have you done this 3 year norm comparison in years past?2.  Are you (as in DD) only doing this, or do the FBG overall projections reflect this comparison also?

1. Yes I have done it this way for the last few years (adding to the technique every year). I know the importance of good numbers. But I also realize that one person's opinion can be slanted. Hence the deployment of 4 sets of offensive numbers this year (Wood, Henry, Smith and I). We also will have at least 2 sets of IDP numbers.2. There is no such things as FBG overall projections. We have staff rankings, but everyone does not provide projections. I don't see us going down that path either. I do know Bob Henry, Jason Wood and Chris Smith employ similar technigues that I use. Those will be the other three that will provide offensive input to the Projections Dominator / Draft Dominators this year. It's funny because even though we use similar techniques, sometimes we differ wildly on expectations on teams and players. That's the nature of this beast.3. The other thing I plan on doing a lot more this year is listening to the well-thought out arguments/thoughts.Already today I agree these need to be tweaked slightly:- Make Dayne the starter (more carries); Less carries for Bell- Add a few more carries to Ronnie Brown- Take a few carries away from Cadillac Williams- Add more production to the St. Louis TEs- Add more production to the Detroit RBs- Spread the Carolina receiving numbers around differently

 

[kaso]

 

[David Dodds]

Already today I agree these need to be tweaked slightly:

- Make Dayne the starter (more carries); Less carries for Bell

don't do it, Dave. be strong!!!!!

Tremblay and Pony Boy make strong arguments regarding Dayne. It is easy to hate him. We saw him play overweight in NY in an offense that did not suit his skills. But he was an animal in college. Probably the closest comparision is a player like Thomas Jones who was AWFUL in Arizona. But he looked good in TB and now in Chicago. I will admit I expected Dayne to be HORRIBLE last year when he was in the game. But that isn't what I saw. He looked pretty good actually. The team let Mike Anderson leave who was productive. Shanny said Anderson was the starter last year and has continually said Dayne is the guy here. I don't doubt his first gameplan was to get Ricky Williams, but that washed out with the suspension. Tatum Bell is explosive, but he doesn't do it every play. He plays soft and I get the feeling that there is something else going on with him (drugs, laziness, bad attitude, etc). Shanny just has not embraced Bell and until he does, I think we need to take him for his word. With Walker and Smith keeping defenses honest, I suspect Dayne could be a great play this year. His value is off the charts this second.