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Official #10 pick strategy thread (12 teams, redraft, half or full PPR) (1 Viewer)

Judge Smails

Footballguy
Was bummed when I drew #10 but after a bunch of mocks I think I can field a decent team. Guaranteed the big 8 will be off the board - CMC, Lamb, Hill, Bijan, Hall, Chase, Jefferson, ARB. 9th pick could go a number of different ways. Could be AJ, could be one of the RB's.

If AJ is there I'm likely taking him first. If not him then G. Wilson. Guaranteed to get one of those 2. Then there will be a run on RB's. Barkley, Henry, Gibbs, Taylor. Gibbs injury may cause him to drop a bit. Puka could be in the mix as well since McVay says he's fine. I'm banking on getting a RB in the 2nd, and if any of those guys aren't there I'll take Kyren Williams (I like him a lot). But I think you're likely to walk away with one of AJ or Garrett Wilson and one of those RB's. I'm good with that.

In round 3 I'm looking WR. My dream is Nico Collins, who lasts some times in mocks and sometimes doesn't. Others often there are Waddle, DJ Metcalf or DJ Moore. I'm good with any of them. Round 4 is when I have to go for my 2nd RB as it's going to get thin. James Conner is often there, Montgomery, Kamara, Jones. Solid RB2 types. This 3/4 turn is critical. I'm resisting the big name QB's on the board because there are 2 I really like later. But depending on the league Hurts, Mahomes, Jackson will be there and it's tempting. I'm going to be strong and stay away.

With the 5th pick I'm likely going WR again, as I want to end up with 2 RB's and 3 WR's with my first 5 picks. Pickens, Nabers, Rice, Flowers, Jayden Reed types. Then in the 6th I'm targeting Jordan Love. He's my first choice at QB and he's often gone after the pick in the early 6th (note - our league is 6 point all TD's, bonuses for 300 yards so QB's don't fall as far, and pocket QB's are OK). I love their offense and he's got a ton of good receivers to throw to. The next several picks are just the best value WR's and RB's with a lean towards RB's who could be league winners if an injury were to go down.

If Goff lasts too long I'm going to snap him up. 14 of first 15 games in domes, great offense. I want the Love/Goff combo but I need to get one for sure (the others in my sights are Kyler Murray and Daniels).

I'll lock up a D around round 12 as they score a lot of points in our league. Want a dome kicker, Aubrey would be great but will settle for others.

Thoughts? What's your strategy? Who are you targeting/avoiding?
 
I have the 10th pick in the FBG sleeper league. It is a 12-team, full PPR league, 20 rounds with a starting lineup of 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2Flex, and 1D. I am at work right now, but will try to post my thoughts soon.
 
Before I post anything, what are the thoughts on mock drafting using FantasyPros? Is it realistic enough?
 
Wilson over brown. Lots of critics of hurts and browns play after first half last year
Yeah I'm torn between those 2. One for sure falls to 10. Brown is definitely an alpha, and Hurts basically only throws to Brown/Smith, so I don't see much downside.
 
Before I post anything, what are the thoughts on mock drafting using FantasyPros? Is it realistic enough?
I've done 15 or so mocks on their site and find it pretty realistic. At least it's all people. I've given up on Fantasy Football Calculator. Often it's only a few people and the rest computer picks. The final straw was when one of the computer teams drafted 3 straight QB's rounds 3-5 in a 1 QB league. Absurd.
 
I have the 10th pick in the FBG sleeper league. It is a 12-team, full PPR league, 20 rounds with a starting lineup of 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2Flex, and 1D. I am at work right now, but will try to post my thoughts soon.
Should add my league starts 1 QB, 2 RB's, 3 WR's, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 DST. Not TE mandatory. 1/2 point PPR, 15 rounds. All TD's 6 points, 5 point bonuses for 100 yards rushing or receiving, 300 yards passing.
 
Mock tonight went

AJ Brown (WR)
Saquon Barkley (RB)
Nico Collins (WR)
James Cook (RB)
Stefon Diggs (WR)
Jordan Love (QB)
Devin Singletary (RB)
Jerome Ford (RB)
Jared Goff (QB)
Brian Thomas (WR)
K Shakur (WR)
Ravens D (DST)
Jordan Mason (RB)
B. Aubrey (K)
D. Schultz (TE)
 
Mock tonight went

AJ Brown (WR)
Saquon Barkley (RB)
Nico Collins (WR)
James Cook (RB)
Stefon Diggs (WR)
Jordan Love (QB)
Devin Singletary (RB)
Jerome Ford (RB)
Jared Goff (QB)
Brian Thomas (WR)
K Shakur (WR)
Ravens D (DST)
Jordan Mason (RB)
B. Aubrey (K)
D. Schultz (TE)
Love this roster Judge. Well done.
 
12-team, full PPR, 20 rounds, 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2Flex, 1D, 10 bench spots

1.10 - Once in a blue moon, Jefferson falls, but if not, your choices are going to be any RB not named CMC, Breece, or Bijan, or any WR not named CeeDee, Tyreek, Ja'Marr, or Amon-Ra. After a handful of mocks, just to be different from @Judge Smails I will take Garrett Wilson over AJ Brown.
2.15 - Here you typically miss out on the next tiny tier of RB's (Gibbs, Barkley, Taylor), but sometimes one is available, and I will take them. The WR's are anyone not listed above. For discussion, let's say Taylor fell to me here (as of today, I have him over the other 2).
3.34 - Here is where the choices start to expand, because everyone has their favorites. First, let's cross off QB's, because I will not take one here, no matter what. At RB/WR, options could be Rachaad, Cook, Walker, Jacobs, Achane, and Pittman, Moore, Waddle, Aiyuk, Samuel (I am leaving Nico off, because he is rarely here, but it does happen). At TE, LaPorta and Kelce seem to disappear, and that's a good thing. If these are my options, I am scooping up Rachaad White, as I think he will once again be a ball hog with lots of catches.
4.39 - I have to start 3 WR's and so far have only 1, so I am taking my favorite that remains. For argument's sake, let's say DJ Moore is still on the board (his current FantasyPros ADP is 4.42.

A start of Jonathan Taylor and Rachaad White at RB, with Garrett Wilson and DJ Moore at WR would be nice to me. I will dig further later.
 
I drafted from 10 the other day in a 12 team PPR home league and was shocked when Bijan slipped to me. It was on Sleeper where his adp is listed at 8, so maybe that's why? I did a few mocks on there and he slipped to me in all of them, but I wouldn't take him because I never would have imagined that he would fall to me at 10 in a real draft, but it happened.

1. Bijan
2. Achane
3. S. LaPorta
4. D. Smith
5. T. Higgins
6. R. Rice
7. C. Godwn
8. X. Worthy
9. J. Daniels
10. J. Palmer
11. Z. Charbonnet
12. T. Chandler
13. R. Davis
14. Fairbairn
15. J. Fields
16. Cincy DST

RB Bijan, Achane
WR D. Smith, T. Higgins
Flex R. Rice, C. Godwin
QB J. Daniels
TE S. LaPorta
Bench X. Worthy, J. Palmer, Z. Charbonnet, T. Chandler, R. Davis, J. Fields
K Fairbairn
DST Cincy

I'm extremely high on Achane this year so I picked him over the boring options with the 15th pick, and went full Double Hero RB strategy and didn't take another RB until the 11th round. Kept getting sniped on my late round RB options, and felt devastated when Ford went one pick before I had to pick Charbonnet, but so it goes. Couldn't resist LaPorta since I wasn't used to seeing him fall so late in the third and I owned him last season and reaped the benefits then. I'm feeling pretty good about my team if Daniels lives up to his potential; just need to hit on even one decent WW RB gem and will blow my entire FAAB week one or two if one emerges.

Good luck to all of you 10th pickers!
 
10 spot is horrible this year. Miss out on the clear top tier of players and then when your 2nd pick comes around, you are picking from like 8 guys who are all abougt the same. Even feels like when your 3rd pick comes you missed another tier of quality players.
 
10 spot is horrible this year. Miss out on the clear top tier of players and then when your 2nd pick comes around, you are picking from like 8 guys who are all abougt the same. Even feels like when your 3rd pick comes you missed another tier of quality players.
Totally agree. Can never remember a year where picking at the end put you so behind. Anything is possible though, especially in a managed league. If it's just your normal home league, I think you can try to fight back. In big contests you might as well throw hail mary's from the start.
 
Drafting now, picked Barkley at 1.10, it was a crapshoot for me between Barkeky, Gibbs, Taylor. Could make an argument for or against for each one.

My strategy this year is 1RB and 3 WR's in my first 4 picks.

Im up now at 2.3, trying to decide between Puca, and London. Puca's pre-season injury, and a healthy Kupp, is not leaving me overconfident with this pick.
It seems that London might be in for a breakout season with Cousins under center, not sure if 2.3 is a bit of a reach.

Am I overthinking drafting Puca? Appreciate any advice.
 
Drafting now, picked Barkley at 1.10, it was a crapshoot for me between Barkeky, Gibbs, Taylor. Could make an argument for or against for each one.

My strategy this year is 1RB and 3 WR's in my first 4 picks.

Im up now at 2.3, trying to decide between Puca, and London. Puca's pre-season injury, and a healthy Kupp, is not leaving me overconfident with this pick.
It seems that London might be in for a breakout season with Cousins under center, not sure if 2.3 is a bit of a reach.

Am I overthinking drafting Puca? Appreciate any advice.
I think Barkley is DEFINITELY the pick among them.

I don't like Puka or London there honestly. Etienne? Garrett Wilson?
 
Wilson
Drafting now, picked Barkley at 1.10, it was a crapshoot for me between Barkeky, Gibbs, Taylor. Could make an argument for or against for each one.

My strategy this year is 1RB and 3 WR's in my first 4 picks.

Im up now at 2.3, trying to decide between Puca, and London. Puca's pre-season injury, and a healthy Kupp, is not leaving me overconfident with this pick.
It seems that London might be in for a breakout season with Cousins under center, not sure if 2.3 is a bit of a reach.

Am I overthinking drafting Puca? Appreciate any advice.
I think Barkley is DEFINITELY the pick among them.

I don't like Puka or London there honestly. Etienne? Garrett Wilson?
Wilson was drafted. I'm in no mans land. Etienne is available, hate to go RB-RB in this format, start 2 RB's, 3WR;s, 1 Flex. WR"s are a premium.
 
Wilson
Drafting now, picked Barkley at 1.10, it was a crapshoot for me between Barkeky, Gibbs, Taylor. Could make an argument for or against for each one.

My strategy this year is 1RB and 3 WR's in my first 4 picks.

Im up now at 2.3, trying to decide between Puca, and London. Puca's pre-season injury, and a healthy Kupp, is not leaving me overconfident with this pick.
It seems that London might be in for a breakout season with Cousins under center, not sure if 2.3 is a bit of a reach.

Am I overthinking drafting Puca? Appreciate any advice.
I think Barkley is DEFINITELY the pick among them.

I don't like Puka or London there honestly. Etienne? Garrett Wilson?
Wilson was drafted. I'm in no mans land. Etienne is available, hate to go RB-RB in this format, start 2 RB's, 3WR;s, 1 Flex. WR"s are a premium.
Yeah. But I hate taking guys who I think are overvalued just because I need. I'd rather just build a strength, personally.

Could hammer WR later with Kupp, Pickens, Aiyuk, Cooper, Rice, McLaurin, Moore, etc.
 
@Judge Smails what kind of scoring is your league? If it's up there I missed it. Standard vs PPR or half PPR scoring can affect suggested picks.

Edit: see it in the title. Doh! :homer:

Good advice so far. Is ARSB going before you're pick typically in the mocks? If not would you go AJ over him every time?
 
@Judge Smails what kind of scoring is your league? If it's up there I missed it. Standard vs PPR or half PPR scoring can affect suggested picks.

Edit: see it in the title. Doh! :homer:

Good advice so far. Is ARSB going before you're pick typically in the mocks? If not would you go AJ over him every time?
Yeah ARSB is gone every time. The top 8 overall go like clockwork. I'm shifting strategy, as in my latest mocks I've had much better teams going RB/RB believe it or not, then hammer WR's in rounds 3-5 while others pick up RB dead zone guys I really don't want. Then get my QB in the 6/7 turn, then still plenty of WR/RB targets after.

Example:
Taylor
K. Williams
DJ Moore
Malik Nabors
T. McLaurin
Love

Then get RB depth with guys like B. Robinson/Ford/Singletary, WR depth with Sutton, Brian Thomas, etc. Got all of em. I'm going to keep playing with WR/RB start or RB/RB.
 
I like WR (AJ or Wilson) and hope Barkley or JT on the turn and then WR/WR - RB/QB - TE/RB. If Barkley and JT not there ... I would WR on the turn. Then RB/RB - WR/QB
 
Justin Jefferson WR - happy @ 10
Derrick Henry RB - best RB (Barkley and JT were gone)
Drake London WR - I think good value
De'Von Achane RB - boom / bust but could be worst
Dalton Kincaid TE - I think I went TE too early, but they were flying off the board
Rhamondre Stevenson RB - meh
Jordan Love QB - most guys were gone and big drop after him
DeAndre Hopkins WR - meh
Jared Goff QB - meh
Brian Thomas Jr. WR -
Chuba Hubbard RB
Bills D/ST D/ST
Jake Moody K
Josh Downs WR
 
Interested to see how your drafts went. Especially RB/RB vs WR/RB. Please post!
I'll play...12-team PPR, all TDs are 6 points, 5 bench spots, no IR. My draft strategy went out the window as some players fell and others were sniped:

1. (10) Jonathan Taylor (Ind - RB)
2. (15) Jahmyr Gibbs (Det - RB)
3. (34) Patrick Mahomes (KC - QB) - almost took Waddle
4. (39) James Cook (Buf - RB)
5. (58) Dalton Kincaid (Buf - TE)
6. (63) Malik Nabers (NYG - WR)
7. (82) Chris Godwin (TB - WR) - almost took Brian Robinson, but needed WR more
8. (87) Diontae Johnson (Car - WR)
9. (106) Keon Coleman (Buf - WR)
10. (111) Ladd McConkey (LAC - WR)
11. (130) Hollywood Brown (KC - WR)
12. (135) Joshua Palmer (LAC - WR)
13. (154) Buffalo (Buf - DEF)
14. (159) Matt Gay (Ind - K)a

Without adding too much play-by-play, I actually love this team.
 
Interested to see how your drafts went. Especially RB/RB vs WR/RB. Please post!
I'll play...12-team PPR, all TDs are 6 points, 5 bench spots, no IR. My draft strategy went out the window as some players fell and others were sniped:

1. (10) Jonathan Taylor (Ind - RB)
2. (15) Jahmyr Gibbs (Det - RB)
3. (34) Patrick Mahomes (KC - QB) - almost took Waddle
4. (39) James Cook (Buf - RB)
5. (58) Dalton Kincaid (Buf - TE)
6. (63) Malik Nabers (NYG - WR)
7. (82) Chris Godwin (TB - WR) - almost took Brian Robinson, but needed WR more
8. (87) Diontae Johnson (Car - WR)
9. (106) Keon Coleman (Buf - WR)
10. (111) Ladd McConkey (LAC - WR)
11. (130) Hollywood Brown (KC - WR)
12. (135) Joshua Palmer (LAC - WR)
13. (154) Buffalo (Buf - DEF)
14. (159) Matt Gay (Ind - K)a

Without adding too much play-by-play, I actually love this team.
I do too. Nabers in the 6th is insane
 
12 team PPR...strong WR, but RBs kept getting sniped. In retrospect, may have needed a reach instead of Dionte. Somewhat reliant on the lotto ticket emerging, but diligence on the waiver wire will be key. One "rate my team" write up headline was "Were you drafting a dynasty team?":)

1.10 Chase, Ja'Marr CIN WR
2.03 Henry, Derrick BAL RB
3.10 London, Drake ATL WR
4.03 Waddle, Jaylen MIA WR (Q)
5.10 Kincaid, Dalton BUF TE
6.03 Rice, Rashee KCC WR
7.10 Robinson, Brian WAS RB
8.03 Johnson, Diontae CAR WR
9.10 Corum, Blake LAR RB
10.03 Love, Jordan GBP QB
11.10 Irving, Bucky TBB RB
12.03 Vidal, Kimani LAC RB
13.10 Aubrey, Brandon DAL PK
14.03 Shaheed, Rashid NOS WR (Q)
15.10 Seahawks, Seattle SEA Def
16.03 Estime, Audric DEN RB
 
Yeah you’re so loaded at WR you’ll never play Diontae. A RB would have been better for depth. But great draft
For better or worse, all the WRs before Dionte have some type of question mark (Chase - holdout; Waddle - injury (though non contact jersey off today); Rice - potential suspension) so it does provide some coverage. Hoping the pundits are right that it will be easier to find RB help than WR...time will tell.
 
If AJB Barkley or Chase are there at #10, you got an easy selection with any of them, most folks likely take Chase or AJB
I like Henry at RB on the way back at 2.03 and then you don't have to show your hand as much coming back on the 3/4, Could go WR/WR or WR/TE or if a RB falls you like as your RB2, perhaps a volume type like White in Tampa Bay

2RB/2WR after the Rd 4, you should have the nucleus of a pretty good team
 
i drew 10 tonight in the one i did. 12 team ppr double flex. i went with JT a i didn't think one of jt, bark, or gibbs would last if i did go wr. maybe should have went wr (ajb/wilson) cause gibbs was there at 2.3 and i had to take him for a rb/rb start. ended with this in the end

1.10 JT
2.01 Gibbs
3.10 Laporta
4.03 DK
5.10 Higgins
6.03 Kirk
7.10 Najee
8.03 Diontae Johnson
9.10 Jayden Daniels
10.03 Eckler
11.10 Polk
12.03 McLaughlin
13.10 Wicks
14.03 McPherson
15.10 Saints

so a good example of a rb/rb/te start from there and how you could maybe try to regain an advantage by zaggin when people are ziggin. i don't hate it
 

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