Official 12th Draft Pick Strategy Thread (1 Viewer)

[RalphMouth]

Lets say you ? What do you think is the smartest way to go ?

You could take in your opinion the best QB (Rogers, Brees...) but QBs are deep this year.

You could go WR, WR and nab Green & Julio Jones or Green & Marshall.

You could take best available RB and WR but does Chris Johnson, Ridley, DeMarco Murray, R. Bush, Forte,

Stevan Jackson, MJD, Gore or Mc Fadden really thrill you ?

I suppose you could take best TE but I never will at the 12th or 13th picks.

those RBs at 12th and 13th don't thrill me and will earn a thread of it's own- I think I'm leaning

WR, WR but even they are deep this year- YIKES

 

[Khy]

This really depends on who was picked already... for the sake of argument lets just cross off the top 11 based on ADP.

1.01: Adrian Peterson

1.02: Arian Foster

1.03: Doug Martin

1.04: Jamaal Charles

1.05: Marshawn Lynch

1.06: C.J. Spiller

1.07: Ray Rice

1.08: LeSean McCoy

1.09: Calvin Johnson

1.10: Trent Richardson

1.11: Alfred Morris

Okay so all of these guys are gone. I'm playing with the assumption that we are in a serpentine and we have 1.12 and 2.01. Lets take a look at the top say 3-4 For each other position.

QB

-------

Aaron Rodgers

Drew Brees

Peyton Manning

You can take one of these guys, me personally? I think there is enough depth at the position this year to wait on QB for a few rounds.

RB

-------

Steven Jackson

Matt Forte

Chris Johnson

Steven Ridley

I'm not super high on any of these guys and I don't foresee myself taking any of them over the WRs that are circling around right now. That said I'm probably highest on Forte.

WR

-------

AJ Green

Brandon Marshall

Julio Jones

Dez Bryant

I'm definitely taking one of these guys right one of the two picks. Probably AJ Green for me, although I can see an argument for any of them they are all completely elite talents.

TE

-----

Jimmy Graham

Rob Gronkowski

Aaron Hernandez

I think I like taking Graham here also the gap in points between Graham and any other TE is going to be large enough to off set the other problems you'll face.

So I'm either going 1.12/2.01: Graham/Forte or AJ Green/Forte. Although I'm leaning Graham/Forte at this juncture. Right now it's seeming like Gronk may miss several weeks of the season and I just feel like Graham will probably outscore his position in PPG more than any other skill position player. So it's worth skipping on the elite WR talent to get him. There's a ton of depth at WRs this season and almost none at TE.

I don't think you can afford to skip on a RB at this juncture. It's possible it pays off but it's WAY to risky. I think you're almost forced into taking one of those 4 RBs then when the buck comes back for 3.12 and 4.01 you try and land someone like Lamar Miller, David Wilson, Montee Ball, Leveon Bell types. Ideally landing two of them would be gold.

That said... if ANY of the RBs in the Top 11 that we've crossed off manage to make their way down here. I'm taking them and Forte more than likely. I like knowing that my starting RBs are in a good comfortable position for the rest of the season. Nothing is more comforting for me than coming out of round two knowing I'm holding a lock for RB1 and a high RB2 with RB1 upside.

 

[RalphMouth]

I just can't see myself drafting a TE at 12th or 13th overall. I got Gonzo last year in the 7th.

I think somebody like Pitta, Rudolph or Olsen can be fine 5 or 6 rounds later.

 

[NCPanthersFan]

Is there a master thread started somewhere yet that consolidates the per pick strategy for 2013?

 

[nirad3]

As another has already mentioned, it certainly depends on who's gone, but if you're going off current ADPs, I would grab the best two WRs.

 

[kutta]

I am drafting 12th in my main league (PPR) and I HATE this spot this year. Khy nails it with his post. All those RB's are flying off the board, and in all the mocks I've done it looks pretty much like that. If it goes the way ADP's are falling, there's no way I'm passing on Graham here. At least you get one position where you have a big advantage each week. I might also consider Brees, to secure two positions. The rest of the draft can be spent picking up every RB and WR in sight and trying to make a go of it.

Realistically I can see going Graham/Green, and hoping for something like Peyton/Wilson in 3/4. I also kind of like the rookies (Bell, Ball, Gio), and wouldn't be opposed to waiting and hoping one of them falls to me at 5/6 - especially if everyone else is drafting RB's early, they may pass on some of these guys.

But I am just hating this spot this year. The whole draft is going to be a struggle and a battle.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

This really depends on who was picked already... for the sake of argument lets just cross off the top 11 based on ADP.

1.01: Adrian Peterson

1.02: Arian Foster

1.03: Doug Martin

1.04: Jamaal Charles

1.05: Marshawn Lynch

1.06: C.J. Spiller

1.07: Ray Rice

1.08: LeSean McCoy

1.09: Calvin Johnson

1.10: Trent Richardson

1.11: Alfred Morris

Okay so all of these guys are gone. I'm playing with the assumption that we are in a serpentine and we have 1.12 and 2.01. Lets take a look at the top say 3-4 For each other position.

QB

-------

Aaron Rodgers

Drew Brees

Peyton Manning

You can take one of these guys, me personally? I think there is enough depth at the position this year to wait on QB for a few rounds.

RB

-------

Steven Jackson

Matt Forte

Chris Johnson

Steven Ridley

I'm not super high on any of these guys and I don't foresee myself taking any of them over the WRs that are circling around right now. That said I'm probably highest on Forte.

WR

-------

AJ Green

Brandon Marshall

Julio Jones

Dez Bryant

I'm definitely taking one of these guys right one of the two picks. Probably AJ Green for me, although I can see an argument for any of them they are all completely elite talents.

TE

-----

Jimmy Graham

Rob Gronkowski

Aaron Hernandez

I think I like taking Graham here also the gap in points between Graham and any other TE is going to be large enough to off set the other problems you'll face.

So I'm either going 1.12/2.01: Graham/Forte or AJ Green/Forte. Although I'm leaning Graham/Forte at this juncture. Right now it's seeming like Gronk may miss several weeks of the season and I just feel like Graham will probably outscore his position in PPG more than any other skill position player. So it's worth skipping on the elite WR talent to get him. There's a ton of depth at WRs this season and almost none at TE.

I don't think you can afford to skip on a RB at this juncture. It's possible it pays off but it's WAY to risky. I think you're almost forced into taking one of those 4 RBs then when the buck comes back for 3.12 and 4.01 you try and land someone like Lamar Miller, David Wilson, Montee Ball, Leveon Bell types. Ideally landing two of them would be gold.

That said... if ANY of the RBs in the Top 11 that we've crossed off manage to make their way down here. I'm taking them and Forte more than likely. I like knowing that my starting RBs are in a good comfortable position for the rest of the season. Nothing is more comforting for me than coming out of round two knowing I'm holding a lock for RB1 and a high RB2 with RB1 upside.

I'll piggy back off of this top 11 adp list. If I had 1.12 and 2.1--in a ppr league---I'd go aaron rodgers and jimmy graham. The qb depth might be deeper this season--but I still see a lot of value in having an elite qb that is solidly consistent. Gronk is a pretty solid question mark to me when it comes to his injury--which to me means that any team with Graham at a tight end will have a huge advantage. Having Graham is basically like having an elite wr that plays in your te spot. I'd definitely then go for the best available rb and wr with your next two picks.

 

[Biabreakable]

While I agree with the intent to get a top player at a position by drafting Brees and/or Graham is a good idea, and those are very good picks. The are most often only 1 required starter. So you somewhat hurt your options to draft value at those positions. Now those players VBD number might justify it, just pointing out that starting your draft this way limits your options later on.

If the draft does unfold that there is a long RB run in the 1st round, you do not want to be chasing the run. At the same time you do not want the run to go into the 3rd tier of players without getting one if at all possible.The fact that you will not be drafting again until picks 23,24 (unless this gets reversed in 3rd round) makes passing on the RB/WR even more of a problem. You will be chasing 2 RB runs and a WR at that point and the top QB/TE will be gone.

So I think you have to do an upside down draft if this is what happens. If you do not go WR/WR I think you need one of those picks be a WR so you are starting a run not chasing one. The 2nd pick I can see using on Brees or Graham although I would rather be taking the last of Brees/Rodgers/Manning than the 1st team drafting a QB. Likewise Graham would be a better value even towards the end of the 2nd round compared to at the top of it. I do not think that is in the cards drafting at the 3/4 turn.

I have not looked at any ADP info for quite some time, but drafting at the turn does give the advantage of taking 2 players at once. I think part of the strength of this allows you to wait on positions like QB/TE and get good value later in the draft at those positions at the 5/6 turn. Or the other option would be to wait later than that but to draft those positions in pairs at later turns with the intent to pair favorable scheduling.

Having over 20 picks in between your picks forces you to plan ahead more than the other draft positions. I think the thing to do is look at what is the best value at the 5/6 turn and then plan picks 1-4 based off of that.

 

[kOOk]

WR, WR. No question there will be a WR run before your next pick which will drop some value to you at another position. Nobody, except the CJ owner if he also stacks the position, will have a 2nd WR close to yours and there's your advantage. You go with one of those RBs and you'll be playing chase all day long.

Plan B would be WR/Graham.

 

[meyerj31]

Depends completely on starting requirements...

2/3/1/2 - WR / WR

1/3/1/1 - WR / WR


2/2/1/0 - RB / Graham

2/2/1/1 - RB / Graham

2/3/0/0 - RB / WR

I didn't do exact VBD projections for these cases ... this is just an illustration of how I think it would play out. Generally the less WR/flex positions the more important RB becomes, so even though there's a drop off it's worth taking the next best available.

The turn is an awful place to be this year, IMO. I recently did a snake-draft value calculation selecting correctly by VBD in a 2/3/1 league, and the expected value from the 1st pick was nearly 30% higher than the guys picking near the turn. I think that has to do with the extremely deep QB and WR positions (so the guys who get first crack at the best RBs have a huge advantage, since they can get near the same QB/WR core later).

Due to this, I am almost exclusively playing in auction leagues this year.

 

[Rubi]

WR, WR. No question there will be a WR run before your next pick which will drop some value to you at another position. Nobody, except the CJ owner if he also stacks the position, will have a 2nd WR close to yours and there's your advantage. You go with one of those RBs and you'll be playing chase all day long.

Plan B would be WR/Graham.

Totally agree. Start a run,don't finish it. Wait on your QB,a very good one will be available at your next turn. You'll have 2 #1 WR's(assuming you start at least 2) Your edge is at that #2 all year. I can understand WR/TE to get Graham but I think your advantage at that #2 WR will be of greater value than at TE. You can get 2 very servicable TE's later on and use the better match-up each week. At the 12 spot I'd be happy to start AJ Green/Marshall or Green/Julio every week.

 

[Khy]

WR, WR. No question there will be a WR run before your next pick which will drop some value to you at another position. Nobody, except the CJ owner if he also stacks the position, will have a 2nd WR close to yours and there's your advantage. You go with one of those RBs and you'll be playing chase all day long.

Plan B would be WR/Graham.

Totally agree. Start a run,don't finish it. Wait on your QB,a very good one will be available at your next turn. You'll have 2 #1 WR's(assuming you start at least 2) Your edge is at that #2 all year. I can understand WR/TE to get Graham but I think your advantage at that #2 WR will be of greater value than at TE. You can get 2 very servicable TE's later on and use the better match-up each week. At the 12 spot I'd be happy to start AJ Green/Marshall or Green/Julio every week.

I agree and disagree with this at the same time. I agree you should start a run and not be finishing one. That said, I think going WR/WR is a grave mistake that you'll regret for the rest of your season. WR/RB is the safest play. Going like AJ Green/Forte or AJ Green/Jackson or something is the best play there. Because there won't usually be a 'run' of WRs until R3. What you will see is every RB I mentioned above gone and now your up at 3.12 with 15-20 RBs having already been drafted and you're not looking at even more question marks. What then? At least if you snagged Forte/Green you can go something like David Wilson and Vincent Jackson with 3.12 and 4.01. And I think your team is looking much better than if you go Green/Julio and then be staring at Wilson/Sproles/R.Mathews as two guys that will now be your RB1 and 2.

 

[kutta]

I disagree with Rubi and Khy. If Graham is available, I don't see how you pass on him here. No way, no how. He's the one guy that is certain to outperform his peers, especially with all the trouble in NE right now. Do you really think drafting two late TE's is going to come close to Graham's production? While I like the idea of drafting WR/WR, I question how much Green/Julio/Marshall will actually outscore the WR's you can get at the 3/4 turn (Fitz, Cruz, Nicks, Jordy). I'll take one of Green/Julio/Marshall couple with Graham, and maybe pick up one of those other guys at the 3/4 turn.

And I completely disagree with taking a RB here. You are getting the bottom of the barrel RB1 and are already behind at that position to 10 other guys. I'll take my chances later grabbing every rookie and up and comer I can, but at least I'll have a big advantage at a couple other positions.

 

[jwb]

I disagree with Rubi and Khy. If Graham is available, I don't see how you pass on him here. No way, no how. He's the one guy that is certain to outperform his peers, especially with all the trouble in NE right now. Do you really think drafting two late TE's is going to come close to Graham's production? While I like the idea of drafting WR/WR, I question how much Green/Julio/Marshall will actually outscore the WR's you can get at the 3/4 turn (Fitz, Cruz, Nicks, Jordy). I'll take one of Green/Julio/Marshall couple with Graham, and maybe pick up one of those other guys at the 3/4 turn.

And I completely disagree with taking a RB here. You are getting the bottom of the barrel RB1 and are already behind at that position to 10 other guys. I'll take my chances later grabbing every rookie and up and comer I can, but at least I'll have a big advantage at a couple other positions.

I tried exactly this last year - picked at the end of the round, went Graham/Julio. Went 3-10. I lost the RB battle every week. You have to go RB/Your Choice here. Yes, it can be RB/Graham, or RB/Rodgers, or RB/Julio, but you really, really need that RB (nice, safe, unexciting Forte works fine).

 

[meyerj31]

I disagree with Rubi and Khy. If Graham is available, I don't see how you pass on him here. No way, no how. He's the one guy that is certain to outperform his peers, especially with all the trouble in NE right now. Do you really think drafting two late TE's is going to come close to Graham's production? While I like the idea of drafting WR/WR, I question how much Green/Julio/Marshall will actually outscore the WR's you can get at the 3/4 turn (Fitz, Cruz, Nicks, Jordy). I'll take one of Green/Julio/Marshall couple with Graham, and maybe pick up one of those other guys at the 3/4 turn.

And I completely disagree with taking a RB here. You are getting the bottom of the barrel RB1 and are already behind at that position to 10 other guys. I'll take my chances later grabbing every rookie and up and comer I can, but at least I'll have a big advantage at a couple other positions.

I tried exactly this last year - picked at the end of the round, went Graham/Julio. Went 3-10. I lost the RB battle every week. You have to go RB/Your Choice here. Yes, it can be RB/Graham, or RB/Rodgers, or RB/Julio, but you really, really need that RB (nice, safe, unexciting Forte works fine).

Or you guys could just play in auction. Seriously, though... guys in 10-12 this year in snake drafts are going to get the shaft. Unless I think the league is going to be really soft, no thanks.

 

[kutta]

I disagree with Rubi and Khy. If Graham is available, I don't see how you pass on him here. No way, no how. He's the one guy that is certain to outperform his peers, especially with all the trouble in NE right now. Do you really think drafting two late TE's is going to come close to Graham's production? While I like the idea of drafting WR/WR, I question how much Green/Julio/Marshall will actually outscore the WR's you can get at the 3/4 turn (Fitz, Cruz, Nicks, Jordy). I'll take one of Green/Julio/Marshall couple with Graham, and maybe pick up one of those other guys at the 3/4 turn.

And I completely disagree with taking a RB here. You are getting the bottom of the barrel RB1 and are already behind at that position to 10 other guys. I'll take my chances later grabbing every rookie and up and comer I can, but at least I'll have a big advantage at a couple other positions.

I tried exactly this last year - picked at the end of the round, went Graham/Julio. Went 3-10. I lost the RB battle every week. You have to go RB/Your Choice here. Yes, it can be RB/Graham, or RB/Rodgers, or RB/Julio, but you really, really need that RB (nice, safe, unexciting Forte works fine).

I understand, but that is a pretty small sample set.

 

[Gawain]

Taking those WRs are great until you see that the WRs available at the 3/4 turn are pretty darn good, while the RBs that slip sure aren't as appealing.

Forte, S. Jackson, V. Jackson, Cruz is a stronger start imo than Sproles, Bell, Green, Bryant. A ton depends on scoring and lineup requirements though.

 

[Khy]

Taking those WRs are great until you see that the WRs available at the 3/4 turn are pretty darn good, while the RBs that slip sure aren't as appealing.

Forte, S. Jackson, V. Jackson, Cruz is a stronger start imo than Sproles, Bell, Green, Bryant. A ton depends on scoring and lineup requirements though.

Yeah, that was the point I made above. Is while yes... there are "better" players available at that point than Forte/Jackson types. You HAVE to take one of them and then your choice of Graham or Green/Bryant/Julio (whoever you're higher on). I've done the whole 11/12th pick thing before and I've gone RB RB and had it work out I've gone RB WR and had it work out. I've gone WR WR and NEVER had it work out. Ever. Every single week you are sitting there with 2 RBs who aren't even matching the 1 RB in points for the guy you're playing against. And then your WRs are getting 15 points to their WRs 12 points. RB is the primer position in fantasy and you just can't win without a steady RB on your team. At least I've never seen it... every year the fantasy champion in every league I'm in tends to have the best on staff RBs. Every year.

 

[kutta]

Taking those WRs are great until you see that the WRs available at the 3/4 turn are pretty darn good, while the RBs that slip sure aren't as appealing.

Forte, S. Jackson, V. Jackson, Cruz is a stronger start imo than Sproles, Bell, Green, Bryant. A ton depends on scoring and lineup requirements though.

Yeah, that was the point I made above. Is while yes... there are "better" players available at that point than Forte/Jackson types. You HAVE to take one of them and then your choice of Graham or Green/Bryant/Julio (whoever you're higher on). I've done the whole 11/12th pick thing before and I've gone RB RB and had it work out I've gone RB WR and had it work out. I've gone WR WR and NEVER had it work out. Ever. Every single week you are sitting there with 2 RBs who aren't even matching the 1 RB in points for the guy you're playing against. And then your WRs are getting 15 points to their WRs 12 points. RB is the primer position in fantasy and you just can't win without a steady RB on your team. At least I've never seen it... every year the fantasy champion in every league I'm in tends to have the best on staff RBs. Every year.

Two years ago I took Calvin and Fitz from the 11 hole and set the record for most points ever scored in my league. So it can work out, you just have to get the right guys the rest of the way.

 

[Khy]

Taking those WRs are great until you see that the WRs available at the 3/4 turn are pretty darn good, while the RBs that slip sure aren't as appealing.

Forte, S. Jackson, V. Jackson, Cruz is a stronger start imo than Sproles, Bell, Green, Bryant. A ton depends on scoring and lineup requirements though.

Yeah, that was the point I made above. Is while yes... there are "better" players available at that point than Forte/Jackson types. You HAVE to take one of them and then your choice of Graham or Green/Bryant/Julio (whoever you're higher on). I've done the whole 11/12th pick thing before and I've gone RB RB and had it work out I've gone RB WR and had it work out. I've gone WR WR and NEVER had it work out. Ever. Every single week you are sitting there with 2 RBs who aren't even matching the 1 RB in points for the guy you're playing against. And then your WRs are getting 15 points to their WRs 12 points. RB is the primer position in fantasy and you just can't win without a steady RB on your team. At least I've never seen it... every year the fantasy champion in every league I'm in tends to have the best on staff RBs. Every year.

Two years ago I took Calvin and Fitz from the 11 hole and set the record for most points ever scored in my league. So it can work out, you just have to get the right guys the rest of the way.

Sounds like you got a little lucky on the other positions that year... last year was definitely a season you could have done it with guys like Morris and CJ Spiller and them blowing up. I don't see it as likely this year though, but then again you never known.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Trestman in Chicago might be looking for someone to fill the slotback role that he had in TO. I don't think that's exactly a slot WR, I think it's more in the way of a RB/HB scatback who can catch the ball on inter-mediate routes. Forte's bigger than the slotbacks for the Argos, and he's not a scatback per se, but I think he will be that guy. in PPR I'd say go Forte.

 

[Fantasy Fool]

I'm grabbing at least 1 RB if I'm sitting with the 12th pick this year. Depending on scoring format, you could be looking at the likes of Bell, Ball, Ivory, Matthews for your 1st RB pick at the end of the 3rd round. The ADP of Bell and Ball may rise higher, so they might not even be available at the end of the 3rd. Granted some of those RBs may work out, but I wouldn't be comfortable with those guys as my #1 RB.

 

[lazyike]

Like all of you I won leagues numerous times so don't take this as bragging but with none of those championships have I ever drafted a QB or TE in the first 2 rounds. WR/RB is about the only way to go IMO. Yes you may be finishing a run on RBs but your also have your stud WR. Green/Forte in a PPR and thinking to go RB/WR (possibly Sproles,Bush, Bell/ Garcon,Amendola or similar ranked WR) with 3rd and 4th picks unless a real stud QB or TE fall to me. Many times I will admit however that #1 or #2 QB was gone in late round 2 when I might have considered grabbing one.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

While I read and understand the various points of view in regards to drafting a running back with the 12th pick-- I have to say that one of the primary reasons why I wouldn't do this is because of the instability of the running back position. Running backs have an exponentially higher chance of getting injured versus a wr/te/qb. Looking at the quality of the rb's available at 12--maybe a forte--I just can't ignore the likelihood of passing up on an aaron rodgers/jimmy graham for a probably 14-15 games versus maybe getting maybe 10-12 games from a rb like forte. If I could get a graham/rodgers here--and a solid rb/wr in the next rounds--maybe a reggie bush with fitzgerald/roddy white/cobb/demaryious--etc...I just like that mix. Obviously if you take this route--you can wait a while before drafting a backup qb and load up on high upside lower round rb's/wr's to complete your roster. Also-- if your team really ended up lacking in the rb department--you should have no problem trading a guy like rodgers for a solid rb. In fact, in my fantasy league--aaron rodgers got traded very early in the season for marshawn lynch and tony romo. An elite qb will always have some equity (as long as he stays healthy)--where an elite rb could easily lose all of his value very quickly--as their injury risk is far greater. Just my take---but I can see why many would disagree.

 

[lazyike]

The instability at RB gets even worse if you don't get one of the top 15 or so which is precisely why you need to take one at the 12/13 turn. QBs such as Stafford and Romo etc a few rounds later will be passing plenty and are sure to be the starters for every snap if healthy.

 

[kutta]

The instability at RB gets even worse if you don't get one of the top 15 or so which is precisely why you need to take one at the 12/13 turn. QBs such as Stafford and Romo etc a few rounds later will be passing plenty and are sure to be the starters for every snap if healthy.

But it's not that simple. Sure the RB's get worse, but so do all the other positions. Since you are going to get a mediocre RB1 at pick 12/13, I think you have to seriously consider getting the best players here at whatever position is available. There will be RB's available later in the draft that should be serviceable. But you can get really strong at WR/TE/QB by taking those guys at 12/13.

Another consideration is if you take let's say Brees/Graham at the turn, most other folks in the draft will have to use two mid-round picks on QB's and two picks on TE's. This gives you a great chance to fill in your WR's and RB's.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

i have done a few mocks and hate my team when I go WR/WR or WR/QB etc with the first two picks.....on the other hand I love my team when I have gone RB/RB....

ton of value at WR and QB this year.....still plenty of WR1 types left in third and 4th...with a flex I have even gone RB/RB/RB(Bush) and loved the team...

i love pairing Steven Jackson with one of the other RB's that make it there....

 

[Khy]

The instability at RB gets even worse if you don't get one of the top 15 or so which is precisely why you need to take one at the 12/13 turn. QBs such as Stafford and Romo etc a few rounds later will be passing plenty and are sure to be the starters for every snap if healthy.

But it's not that simple. Sure the RB's get worse, but so do all the other positions. Since you are going to get a mediocre RB1 at pick 12/13, I think you have to seriously consider getting the best players here at whatever position is available. There will be RB's available later in the draft that should be serviceable. But you can get really strong at WR/TE/QB by taking those guys at 12/13.

Another consideration is if you take let's say Brees/Graham at the turn, most other folks in the draft will have to use two mid-round picks on QB's and two picks on TE's. This gives you a great chance to fill in your WR's and RB's.

Well no see, it really is that simple and here is why. The RB drop off is MUCH MUCH harder than any other positon.

2012 RB1: 20ppg

2012 RB10: 14ppg

2012 RB20: 12ppg

2012 RB30: 9.5ppg

2012 RB40: 7ppg

2012 RB50: 6.2ppg

2012 WR1: 19.6ppg

2012 WR10: 15.38ppg

2012 WR20: 13.5ppg

2012 WR30: 12ppg

2012 WR40: 10.8ppg

2012 WR50: 9.8ppg

2012 TE1: 18ppg

2012 TE10: 10.6ppg

2012 TE20: 8.7ppg

2012 TE30: 6.6ppg

Do you see the difference in drop off? It's astronomical at least in my opinion. I never leave the first round without a RB because after that first round they get progressively worse.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

The instability at RB gets even worse if you don't get one of the top 15 or so which is precisely why you need to take one at the 12/13 turn. QBs such as Stafford and Romo etc a few rounds later will be passing plenty and are sure to be the starters for every snap if healthy.

But it's not that simple. Sure the RB's get worse, but so do all the other positions. Since you are going to get a mediocre RB1 at pick 12/13, I think you have to seriously consider getting the best players here at whatever position is available. There will be RB's available later in the draft that should be serviceable. But you can get really strong at WR/TE/QB by taking those guys at 12/13.

Another consideration is if you take let's say Brees/Graham at the turn, most other folks in the draft will have to use two mid-round picks on QB's and two picks on TE's. This gives you a great chance to fill in your WR's and RB's.

Well no see, it really is that simple and here is why. The RB drop off is MUCH MUCH harder than any other positon.

2012 RB1: 20ppg

2012 RB10: 14ppg

2012 RB20: 12ppg

2012 RB30: 9.5ppg

2012 RB40: 7ppg

2012 RB50: 6.2ppg

2012 WR1: 19.6ppg

2012 WR10: 15.38ppg

2012 WR20: 13.5ppg

2012 WR30: 12ppg

2012 WR40: 10.8ppg

2012 WR50: 9.8ppg

2012 TE1: 18ppg

2012 TE10: 10.6ppg

2012 TE20: 8.7ppg

2012 TE30: 6.6ppg

Do you see the difference in drop off? It's astronomical at least in my opinion. I never leave the first round without a RB because after that first round they get progressively worse.

You definitely make a strong point in the overall "value" of a stud running back. I want to make sure to make crystal clear that I don't disagree with you there. The thing here is with the 1-12,2-1 picks--the selections made early draft really need to perform. If one's top 2 picks (from that drafting position) don't perform--they could be looking at a team where their top players come from the 3-12,4-1 draft selections---which is all but a death sentence. If you look at the top 10 rbs from last year--while your list looks great---look at the guys who were in the top 10--alfred morris, doug martin, frank gore, cj spiller...etc--these are guys who were drafted far below the 1st and 2nd rounds of redraft leagues. If you look at that relative to what the so-called must have first round rb's from last years draft should have been--lesean mccoy, chris johnson, darren mcfadden, mjd..etc--there is no guarantee that drafting a running back early means you'll get a stud rb. The point is that drafting any running back is a crapshoot. Nobody expected Adrian Peterson to have a historic season last year--and virtually nobody expected Lesean Mccoy or darren Mcfadden to be terrible. The fact of a matter is that the value of any running back is subject to change the very moment the draft ends. However, one can say with a very high level of confidence that an Aaron Rodgers will be a top 10-15 fantasy commodity at any point of a season. Could one say the same thing about Matt Forte with the same level of confidence? I'd personally say no---and I think most people would. If you llok at the Jimmy Graham argument--if you look at his numbers for the past couple years--having him (especially now with Payton back as coach) on a roster is basically equivalent to playing an elite wr at the TE position--which all but guarantees that he will always be an extremely valuable fantasy commodity. Most teams that win their fantasy championships don't draft a team--and keep their team exactly the same the entire way through a season. The key is that if you fill a team up with guaranteed studs in any position (qb, wr, te..etc)--you can always use those assets as trade pieces to acquire what you need. The problem with no drafting a graham or an aaron rodgers is that you are allowing teams that have already drafted allegedly "elite" rb's a chance to couple that with elite qb's and te's. That's a bigger risk in my opinion.

 

[kutta]

The instability at RB gets even worse if you don't get one of the top 15 or so which is precisely why you need to take one at the 12/13 turn. QBs such as Stafford and Romo etc a few rounds later will be passing plenty and are sure to be the starters for every snap if healthy.

But it's not that simple. Sure the RB's get worse, but so do all the other positions. Since you are going to get a mediocre RB1 at pick 12/13, I think you have to seriously consider getting the best players here at whatever position is available. There will be RB's available later in the draft that should be serviceable. But you can get really strong at WR/TE/QB by taking those guys at 12/13.

Another consideration is if you take let's say Brees/Graham at the turn, most other folks in the draft will have to use two mid-round picks on QB's and two picks on TE's. This gives you a great chance to fill in your WR's and RB's.

Well no see, it really is that simple and here is why. The RB drop off is MUCH MUCH harder than any other positon.

2012 RB1: 20ppg

2012 RB10: 14ppg

2012 RB20: 12ppg

2012 RB30: 9.5ppg

2012 RB40: 7ppg

2012 RB50: 6.2ppg

2012 WR1: 19.6ppg

2012 WR10: 15.38ppg

2012 WR20: 13.5ppg

2012 WR30: 12ppg

2012 WR40: 10.8ppg

2012 WR50: 9.8ppg

2012 TE1: 18ppg

2012 TE10: 10.6ppg

2012 TE20: 8.7ppg

2012 TE30: 6.6ppg

Do you see the difference in drop off? It's astronomical at least in my opinion. I never leave the first round without a RB because after that first round they get progressively worse.

You definitely make a strong point in the overall "value" of a stud running back. I want to make sure to make crystal clear that I don't disagree with you there. The thing here is with the 1-12,2-1 picks--the selections made early draft really need to perform. If one's top 2 picks (from that drafting position) don't perform--they could be looking at a team where their top players come from the 3-12,4-1 draft selections---which is all but a death sentence. If you look at the top 10 rbs from last year--while your list looks great---look at the guys who were in the top 10--alfred morris, doug martin, frank gore, cj spiller...etc--these are guys who were drafted far below the 1st and 2nd rounds of redraft leagues. If you look at that relative to what the so-called must have first round rb's from last years draft should have been--lesean mccoy, chris johnson, darren mcfadden, mjd..etc--there is no guarantee that drafting a running back early means you'll get a stud rb. The point is that drafting any running back is a crapshoot. Nobody expected Adrian Peterson to have a historic season last year--and virtually nobody expected Lesean Mccoy or darren Mcfadden to be terrible. The fact of a matter is that the value of any running back is subject to change the very moment the draft ends. However, one can say with a very high level of confidence that an Aaron Rodgers will be a top 10-15 fantasy commodity at any point of a season. Could one say the same thing about Matt Forte with the same level of confidence? I'd personally say no---and I think most people would. If you llok at the Jimmy Graham argument--if you look at his numbers for the past couple years--having him (especially now with Payton back as coach) on a roster is basically equivalent to playing an elite wr at the TE position--which all but guarantees that he will always be an extremely valuable fantasy commodity. Most teams that win their fantasy championships don't draft a team--and keep their team exactly the same the entire way through a season. The key is that if you fill a team up with guaranteed studs in any position (qb, wr, te..etc)--you can always use those assets as trade pieces to acquire what you need. The problem with no drafting a graham or an aaron rodgers is that you are allowing teams that have already drafted allegedly "elite" rb's a chance to couple that with elite qb's and te's. That's a bigger risk in my opinion.

That's my main reason for drafting TE/QB/WR at the 12/13 spot. The guys you get will be almost guaranteed to be top 5 at their position. The RB's you get here have lots of questions and risk.

 

[Biabreakable]

i have done a few mocks and hate my team when I go WR/WR or WR/QB etc with the first two picks.....on the other hand I love my team when I have gone RB/RB....

ton of value at WR and QB this year.....still plenty of WR1 types left in third and 4th...with a flex I have even gone RB/RB/RB(Bush) and loved the team...

i love pairing Steven Jackson with one of the other RB's that make it there....

While I also think this is a viable strategy it also has the risk of you ending up with a mediocre team if the RB and some of your later picks underperform. I think points are points and landing a top player will give you a nice advantage that you will be hard pressed to match taking the 12/13 RB 10WR/3rdTE and so on. Your picks may all be below a tier of talent at that position, because thats whats left.

Or it could be awesome if you hit on a lot of those picks.

 

[donkshow]

I'd seriously consider Graham/Rodgers. That, or Graham & 1 of elite WR Julio/Green/Dez and wait on maybe Manning at the end of round 3. After the top 10 RB, I think there is a drop and taking SJax, Ridley, CJ2K, Forte could be a mistake with the elite at other positions still on board. But then you leave yourself likely drafting 4-5 RB's and hoping to hit on an Ivory/Bernard/etc.

Get the elite at positions where the Elite crush the rest. While they may be deep positions AFTER the top 3-4 and it's a big drop, if you get the 2 elite and walk away with a huge advantage already.

At that point, if you can walk away with RB combo of: Bush, Ivory, Sproles or something, and some other back-ups with potential, you have 3 high ceiling mediocre floor RB, plus the elite at 2 of: QB/WR/TE.

Tough to grab RB11 when TE1 and WR2 are there, IMO.

Based off ADP of Fantasy football calculator (I think that's what was used for the Top 11 in the OP), in the first 8 rounds you could land:

If you grab an elite TE:

1.12: A.J. Green

2.01: J. Graham

3.12: P. Manning

4.01: C. Ivory

5.12: R. Mendenhall

6.01: E. Decker

7.12: C. Shorts

8.01: J. Stewart

QB: P. Manning

RB: C. Ivory

RB: R. Mendenhall

WR: A.J. Green

WR: E. Decker

WR: C. Shorts

TE: J. Graham

Bench: J. Stewart

Or if you go 1 RB/1 WR to start instead of the QB or TE:

1.12: A.J. Green

2.01: M. Forte

3.12: P. Manning

4.01: C. Ivory

5.12: J. Witten

6.01: E. Decker

7.12: C. Shorts

8.01: J. Stewart

QB: P. Manning

RB: M. Forte

RB: C. Ivory

WR: A.J. Green

WR: E. Decker

WR: C. Shorts

TE: J. Witten

Bench: J. Stewart

Finally, if you go WR heavy:

1.12: A.J. Green

2.01: D. Bryant

3.12: D. Sproles

4.01: C. Ivory

5.12: J. Witten

6.01: M. Stafford

7.12: C. Shorts

8.01: J. Stewart

QB: M. Stafford

RB: D. Sproles

RB: C. Ivory

WR: A.J. Green

WR: D. Bryant

WR: C. Shorts

TE: J. Witten

Bench: J. Stewart

 

[meyerj31]

I'd seriously consider Graham/Rodgers. That, or Graham & 1 of elite WR Julio/Green/Dez and wait on maybe Manning at the end of round 3. After the top 10 RB, I think there is a drop and taking SJax, Ridley, CJ2K, Forte could be a mistake with the elite at other positions still on board. But then you leave yourself likely drafting 4-5 RB's and hoping to hit on an Ivory/Bernard/etc.

Get the elite at positions where the Elite crush the rest. While they may be deep positions AFTER the top 3-4 and it's a big drop, if you get the 2 elite and walk away with a huge advantage already.

At that point, if you can walk away with RB combo of: Bush, Ivory, Sproles or something, and some other back-ups with potential, you have 3 high ceiling mediocre floor RB, plus the elite at 2 of: QB/WR/TE.

Tough to grab RB11 when TE1 and WR2 are there, IMO.

Based off ADP of Fantasy football calculator (I think that's what was used for the Top 11 in the OP), in the first 8 rounds you could land:

If you grab an elite TE:

1.12: A.J. Green

2.01: J. Graham

3.12: P. Manning

4.01: C. Ivory

5.12: R. Mendenhall

6.01: E. Decker

7.12: C. Shorts

8.01: J. Stewart

QB: P. Manning

RB: C. Ivory

RB: R. Mendenhall

WR: A.J. Green

WR: E. Decker

WR: C. Shorts

TE: J. Graham

Bench: J. Stewart

Or if you go 1 RB/1 WR to start instead of the QB or TE:

1.12: A.J. Green

2.01: M. Forte

3.12: P. Manning

4.01: C. Ivory

5.12: J. Witten

6.01: E. Decker

7.12: C. Shorts

8.01: J. Stewart

QB: P. Manning

RB: M. Forte

RB: C. Ivory

WR: A.J. Green

WR: E. Decker

WR: C. Shorts

TE: J. Witten

Bench: J. Stewart

Finally, if you go WR heavy:

1.12: A.J. Green

2.01: D. Bryant

3.12: D. Sproles

4.01: C. Ivory

5.12: J. Witten

6.01: M. Stafford

7.12: C. Shorts

8.01: J. Stewart

QB: M. Stafford

RB: D. Sproles

RB: C. Ivory

WR: A.J. Green

WR: D. Bryant

WR: C. Shorts

TE: J. Witten

Bench: J. Stewart

I think you just proved that QB/TE is a bad idea. That's by far the worst of the three.

I like the WR/WR one the best. Witten is not that much of a step down from graham. He actually scored higher than Graham in PPR leagues last year. I see 90+ balls being a possibility... he just doesn't score any TDs.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

I'd seriously consider Graham/Rodgers. That, or Graham & 1 of elite WR Julio/Green/Dez and wait on maybe Manning at the end of round 3. After the top 10 RB, I think there is a drop and taking SJax, Ridley, CJ2K, Forte could be a mistake with the elite at other positions still on board. But then you leave yourself likely drafting 4-5 RB's and hoping to hit on an Ivory/Bernard/etc.

Get the elite at positions where the Elite crush the rest. While they may be deep positions AFTER the top 3-4 and it's a big drop, if you get the 2 elite and walk away with a huge advantage already.

At that point, if you can walk away with RB combo of: Bush, Ivory, Sproles or something, and some other back-ups with potential, you have 3 high ceiling mediocre floor RB, plus the elite at 2 of: QB/WR/TE.

Tough to grab RB11 when TE1 and WR2 are there, IMO.

Based off ADP of Fantasy football calculator (I think that's what was used for the Top 11 in the OP), in the first 8 rounds you could land:

If you grab an elite TE:

1.12: A.J. Green

2.01: J. Graham

3.12: P. Manning

4.01: C. Ivory

5.12: R. Mendenhall

6.01: E. Decker

7.12: C. Shorts

8.01: J. Stewart

QB: P. Manning

RB: C. Ivory

RB: R. Mendenhall

WR: A.J. Green

WR: E. Decker

WR: C. Shorts

TE: J. Graham

Bench: J. Stewart

Or if you go 1 RB/1 WR to start instead of the QB or TE:

1.12: A.J. Green

2.01: M. Forte

3.12: P. Manning

4.01: C. Ivory

5.12: J. Witten

6.01: E. Decker

7.12: C. Shorts

8.01: J. Stewart

QB: P. Manning

RB: M. Forte

RB: C. Ivory

WR: A.J. Green

WR: E. Decker

WR: C. Shorts

TE: J. Witten

Bench: J. Stewart

Finally, if you go WR heavy:

1.12: A.J. Green

2.01: D. Bryant

3.12: D. Sproles

4.01: C. Ivory

5.12: J. Witten

6.01: M. Stafford

7.12: C. Shorts

8.01: J. Stewart

QB: M. Stafford

RB: D. Sproles

RB: C. Ivory

WR: A.J. Green

WR: D. Bryant

WR: C. Shorts

TE: J. Witten

Bench: J. Stewart

I think you just proved that QB/TE is a bad idea. That's by far the worst of the three.

I like the WR/WR one the best. Witten is not that much of a step down from graham. He actually scored higher than Graham in PPR leagues last year. I see 90+ balls being a possibility... he just doesn't score any TDs.

He didn't show qb/te-- He did wr/te--graham/aj green. If he did qb/te--He would have done rodgers/graham. His qb was drafted in the 3rd round (Manning).

 

[jvdesigns2002]

Just using the adp for 2013 from fantasy football calculator--here is how a projected team going qb/te could look:

1/12: Aaron Rodgers

2/1 Jimmy Graham

3/12:best available between roddy white/vjax/andre johnson/hakeem nicks/vcruz

4/1 best available between ryan matthews/mcfadden/sproles

5/12 antonio brown/erik decker/steve smith

6/1 mendenhall/bjge

7/12 Miles Austin/Maclin/Steve Johnson/desean jackson

8/1 Fred Jackson/leshoure/ jonathon stewart

If I list that in a easier to read way--this could be a projected team--I just cherry picked off of the potential list of available guys--I feel like this mock would be a nice start for a pretty strong team.

QB: Aaron rodgers

wr's: Roddy white, antonio brown, Steve johnson

Rbs: Darren McFadden, Mendenhall, Mikel leshoure

TE: Jimmy Graham

 

[kutta]

Just using the adp for 2013 from fantasy football calculator--here is how a projected team going qb/te could look:

1/12: Aaron Rodgers

2/1 Jimmy Graham

3/12:best available between roddy white/vjax/andre johnson/hakeem nicks/vcruz

4/1 best available between ryan matthews/mcfadden/sproles

5/12 antonio brown/erik decker/steve smith

6/1 mendenhall/bjge

7/12 Miles Austin/Maclin/Steve Johnson/desean jackson

8/1 Fred Jackson/leshoure/ jonathon stewart

If I list that in a easier to read way--this could be a projected team--I just cherry picked off of the potential list of available guys--I feel like this mock would be a nice start for a pretty strong team.

QB: Aaron rodgers

wr's: Roddy white, antonio brown, Steve johnson

Rbs: Darren McFadden, Mendenhall, Mikel leshoure

TE: Jimmy Graham

Since I really like Peyton this year, I would like the team better if you took Green instead of Rodgers, and Manning instead of Roddy.

 

[Gawain]

Just using FFC ADP, one of the big problems is that 29 backs are projected to be gone before 5.12/6.01. You're left trying to choose one from Cincy/Car/StL.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

Just using FFC ADP, one of the big problems is that 29 backs are projected to be gone before 5.12/6.01. You're left trying to choose one from Cincy/Car/StL.

This is true--but I still mocked the first 8 rounds of a draft from that same draft position using the same ffc adp--and posted it in an earlier post. I'm not saying it's a perfect team by any means--but I do think it's a very strong competitive team. The problem with going heavy with running backs early--especially in this 12th position is that the teams that drafted earlier are most likely going to have already drafted the rb's with the most elite potential. If you pick the best rb's at this position--you will be in essense "behind" in the rb position regardless. All of the while, while the draft snakes back---all of those owners who already have elite running backs will have the opportunity to pair those backs with elite te's (graham) and qb's (rodgers, brees). While I can understand why somebody would want a Matt Forte/AJ Green-- I'm not sure if I would want that by opening up the door for an owner to have a Jamaal charles/aaron rodgers or Ray rice/Jimmy graham combination. Keep in mind, that these other teams will each get two picks by the time you would be able to draft again--so you could literally be trying to compete against a team with jimmy graham, ray rice, tom brady or peyton manning...etc. My argument is that at this draft position--when soo much is dependent on your top 2 picks to produce-- the best play is to draft the guys who are the closest to being guaranteed commoditities My argument is that this low in the draft--none of the running backs are close to being a guaranteed asset just because of volatility of the running back position alone. As I mentioned in an earlier post-- the odds are that Aaron rodgers will be a top 10-20 fantasy commodity throughout the entire season. I think the same argument could be made for Graham--and also AJ green if one decides to go that way. The key is that if you already know that you'll be playing from behing in the running back position--then why allow yourself to play behind in the qb/te and possibly wr positions as well? You're creating a bigger hole by trying to keep up with the running back craze. If one just fills their team up with studs--regardless of what positions they play--they have the tools to make moves to fill in their needs. Of course--this strategy would only apply to this draft position. If one is fortunate enough to have a top 5-6 draft pick where you can land potentially elite rb's and don't have to wait 23 picks between selections--this strategy need not apply. I totally see why many would disagree, but if I had to draft in this position--this is how I would do it.

 

[Rubi]

Just using FFC ADP, one of the big problems is that 29 backs are projected to be gone before 5.12/6.01. You're left trying to choose one from Cincy/Car/StL.

This is true--but I still mocked the first 8 rounds of a draft from that same draft position using the same ffc adp--and posted it in an earlier post. I'm not saying it's a perfect team by any means--but I do think it's a very strong competitive team. The problem with going heavy with running backs early--especially in this 12th position is that the teams that drafted earlier are most likely going to have already drafted the rb's with the most elite potential. If you pick the best rb's at this position--you will be in essense "behind" in the rb position regardless. All of the while, while the draft snakes back---all of those owners who already have elite running backs will have the opportunity to pair those backs with elite te's (graham) and qb's (rodgers, brees). While I can understand why somebody would want a Matt Forte/AJ Green-- I'm not sure if I would want that by opening up the door for an owner to have a Jamaal charles/aaron rodgers or Ray rice/Jimmy graham combination. Keep in mind, that these other teams will each get two picks by the time you would be able to draft again--so you could literally be trying to compete against a team with jimmy graham, ray rice, tom brady or peyton manning...etc. My argument is that at this draft position--when soo much is dependent on your top 2 picks to produce-- the best play is to draft the guys who are the closest to being guaranteed commoditities My argument is that this low in the draft--none of the running backs are close to being a guaranteed asset just because of volatility of the running back position alone. As I mentioned in an earlier post-- the odds are that Aaron rodgers will be a top 10-20 fantasy commodity throughout the entire season. I think the same argument could be made for Graham--and also AJ green if one decides to go that way. The key is that if you already know that you'll be playing from behing in the running back position--then why allow yourself to play behind in the qb/te and possibly wr positions as well? You're creating a bigger hole by trying to keep up with the running back craze. If one just fills their team up with studs--regardless of what positions they play--they have the tools to make moves to fill in their needs. Of course--this strategy would only apply to this draft position. If one is fortunate enough to have a top 5-6 draft pick where you can land potentially elite rb's and don't have to wait 23 picks between selections--this strategy need not apply. I totally see why many would disagree, but if I had to draft in this position--this is how I would do it.

Very interesting argument,well done. I did a couple of mocks just for the halibut from the 12 hole. Without boring details,when I tried to "balance" the picks,rb/wr,for example,i didn't like the end results at all. The teams that I went rb/rb or wr/wr with looked much better OVERALL,imop. Going wr/wr did make the rb position the weakest,but I'm drafting in a ppr league so the options at rb later on were a BIT better than non-ppr. I'm leaning towards wr/te or wr/wr in a 12 team ppr league right now.

 

[kOOk]

I didn't read jvdesigns due to the paragraph shortage.

It's early still. We could have a much easier RB selection at 12 two months from now. Like Ball or someone else who shoots up the charts after a few preseason games. Yeah my earlly pick would be Ball. Ball will end up everybodys little darling at the ball.

 

[kutta]

I didn't read jvdesigns due to the paragraph shortage.

It's early still. We could have a much easier RB selection at 12 two months from now. Like Ball or someone else who shoots up the charts after a few preseason games. Yeah my earlly pick would be Ball. Ball will end up everybodys little darling at the ball.

I hope not. I'm sort of hoping to take Ball/Bell at the 3/4 turn.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

I didn't read jvdesigns due to the paragraph shortage.

It's early still. We could have a much easier RB selection at 12 two months from now. Like Ball or someone else who shoots up the charts after a few preseason games. Yeah my earlly pick would be Ball. Ball will end up everybodys little darling at the ball.

Montee ball at 12?-- a running back in a pass heavy offense--over an Aaron Rodgers, Jimmy Graham, or AJ Green? Here's a writeup that rotoworld just did on Graham today:

Jimmy Graham's current ADP is the late second round, and that is absolute robbery for a tier-one fantasy commodity whose value is supplemented by Rob Gronkowski's five surgeries and Aaron Hernandez's legal woes. Let's average Graham's 2011 and 2012 stat lines and say he scores at that per-game fantasy points clip (11.3) in 2013. And let's say Gronk and Hernandez are out of the picture for now. In order, the next best 2012 per-game tight end clips were Tony Gonzalez (8.8), Heath Miller (8.6), and Jason Witten (7.6). If you have Graham and you're going against a team with Greg Olsen (7.1), you're essentially starting off with a four-point fantasy lead. Graham gives you a massive weekly edge.

This is the type of guy that I want with the 12th pick.

 

[meyerj31]

I didn't read jvdesigns due to the paragraph shortage.

It's early still. We could have a much easier RB selection at 12 two months from now. Like Ball or someone else who shoots up the charts after a few preseason games. Yeah my earlly pick would be Ball. Ball will end up everybodys little darling at the ball.

Montee ball at 12?-- a running back in a pass heavy offense--over an Aaron Rodgers, Jimmy Graham, or AJ Green? Here's a writeup that rotoworld just did on Graham today:

Jimmy Graham's current ADP is the late second round, and that is absolute robbery for a tier-one fantasy commodity whose value is supplemented by Rob Gronkowski's five surgeries and Aaron Hernandez's legal woes. Let's average Graham's 2011 and 2012 stat lines and say he scores at that per-game fantasy points clip (11.3) in 2013. And let's say Gronk and Hernandez are out of the picture for now. In order, the next best 2012 per-game tight end clips were Tony Gonzalez (8.8), Heath Miller (8.6), and Jason Witten (7.6). If you have Graham and you're going against a team with Greg Olsen (7.1), you're essentially starting off with a four-point fantasy lead. Graham gives you a massive weekly edge.

This is the type of guy that I want with the 12th pick.

Sure.

But realize that there's a larger disparity between Rodgers/Brees/Brady and the replacement level QB. For as deep as QB is supposed to be this year, the correct VBD choice is still 3 top QBs in the first two rounds in almost every league I've modeled out.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

I didn't read jvdesigns due to the paragraph shortage.

It's early still. We could have a much easier RB selection at 12 two months from now. Like Ball or someone else who shoots up the charts after a few preseason games. Yeah my earlly pick would be Ball. Ball will end up everybodys little darling at the ball.

Montee ball at 12?-- a running back in a pass heavy offense--over an Aaron Rodgers, Jimmy Graham, or AJ Green? Here's a writeup that rotoworld just did on Graham today:

Jimmy Graham's current ADP is the late second round, and that is absolute robbery for a tier-one fantasy commodity whose value is supplemented by Rob Gronkowski's five surgeries and Aaron Hernandez's legal woes. Let's average Graham's 2011 and 2012 stat lines and say he scores at that per-game fantasy points clip (11.3) in 2013. And let's say Gronk and Hernandez are out of the picture for now. In order, the next best 2012 per-game tight end clips were Tony Gonzalez (8.8), Heath Miller (8.6), and Jason Witten (7.6). If you have Graham and you're going against a team with Greg Olsen (7.1), you're essentially starting off with a four-point fantasy lead. Graham gives you a massive weekly edge.

This is the type of guy that I want with the 12th pick.

Sure.

But realize that there's a larger disparity between Rodgers/Brees/Brady and the replacement level QB. For as deep as QB is supposed to be this year, the correct VBD choice is still 3 top QBs in the first two rounds in almost every league I've modeled out.

I totally agree with you---this is exactly why I've argued that if I had 1-12, and 2-1---I'd go with Graham and Rodgers. The advantage that you get in these positions can really help counter any weakness that you might have in the rb department. We're on the same page.

 

[RalphMouth]

I'm starting to come around to the idea of Graham at either 12 or 13th especially with the NE mess. Never thought I'd think this,

 

[hotboyz]

I disagree with Rubi and Khy. If Graham is available, I don't see how you pass on him here. No way, no how. He's the one guy that is certain to outperform his peers, especially with all the trouble in NE right now. Do you really think drafting two late TE's is going to come close to Graham's production? While I like the idea of drafting WR/WR, I question how much Green/Julio/Marshall will actually outscore the WR's you can get at the 3/4 turn (Fitz, Cruz, Nicks, Jordy). I'll take one of Green/Julio/Marshall couple with Graham, and maybe pick up one of those other guys at the 3/4 turn.

And I completely disagree with taking a RB here. You are getting the bottom of the barrel RB1 and are already behind at that position to 10 other guys. I'll take my chances later grabbing every rookie and up and comer I can, but at least I'll have a big advantage at a couple other positions.

I tried exactly this last year - picked at the end of the round, went Graham/Julio. Went 3-10. I lost the RB battle every week. You have to go RB/Your Choice here. Yes, it can be RB/Graham, or RB/Rodgers, or RB/Julio, but you really, really need that RB (nice, safe, unexciting Forte works fine).

Or you guys could just play in auction. Seriously, though... guys in 10-12 this year in snake drafts are going to get the shaft. Unless I think the league is going to be really soft, no thanks.

Auctions are the worst and defeat the purpose of playing fantasy football

 

[Norcalhoya]

WR, WR. No question there will be a WR run before your next pick which will drop some value to you at another position. Nobody, except the CJ owner if he also stacks the position, will have a 2nd WR close to yours and there's your advantage. You go with one of those RBs and you'll be playing chase all day long.

Plan B would be WR/Graham.

Totally agree. Start a run,don't finish it. Wait on your QB,a very good one will be available at your next turn. You'll have 2 #1 WR's(assuming you start at least 2) Your edge is at that #2 all year. I can understand WR/TE to get Graham but I think your advantage at that #2 WR will be of greater value than at TE. You can get 2 very servicable TE's later on and use the better match-up each week. At the 12 spot I'd be happy to start AJ Green/Marshall or Green/Julio every week.

Pretty hard to play the matchups with a TE no?

 

[nihsumi]

For a standard, 12 team, NON-ppr league start 2RB/3WR from all the different mocks I have done. I have felt most comfortable with my team going RB/RB at 1.12, 2.01. I typically will see McCoy/Forte/CJ/Lynch here. Then I come back and will grab WR/RB or WR/WR for a choice of Cruz/Jordy/Wallace/Colston/Amendola. For an RB I have seen Bush/Lacy/Stewart/BJE/Gio here. Then in 5th/6th finish w/WR/WR orWR/QB(depends on who is avail) else grab the QB at the next turn.

The WR depth seems really deep this year with alot of potential #1s sitting out there like A. and V.Brown, Amendola, T.Austin, Danario still there end of the 5th. While outside RB20-RB24 the dropoff is vertical.

So after 6 rounds a typical team I have drafted:

RB1:McCoy (yes I like RBs who touch the ball alot whether it is ppr or not)

RB2:Fote

RB3:Bush (I like)

WR1: Cruz

WR2:Brown

WR3: Amendola

and for QBs

Luck, Brady, Romo, Wilson.

for TEs

Gonzo, Finley, Owen, Olsen

Then pick up 2-3 more WRs and 3-4 rookie/backup RBs. This is a decent draft from the 12 hole.

There other route to go and it is the one I used last year successful to get to 3 league playoffs was basically to have the weakest link on the team being RB2. So I draft 3 WRs in the 1st 2 rounds that I feel can start all year and maybe a backup WR late. More likely just enter the season w/3WRs wait a few weeks and pick up a WR to help cover byes or as a replacement. So most of the draft after the 4th round is looking for potential RBs perhaps 4-5 more guys, a QB (Eli, Wilson, Brady) and a rookie QB(Geno?) late. I landed Ridley/Russel Wilson/ColinK/Spillar like this. A majority of the RBs will not pan out but you only need 1 of the RBs on your bench to pan out for RB2 and if you get a guy who breaks out for 2 games think of him as trade bait.

RB1/WR1

WR2/WR3

depends on your options: RB2, WR4 a backup, TE(only Witten or better) or possible a QB

the remainder of the draft is QB then alot of rookie/backup RBs or any who stand out in the preseason games. I decide before the draft which position I will consider my weakest spot and ignore this in the early rounds.

 

[kutta]

The more I mock, the more I realize I probably will not take a QB at 1/2, and probably not even at 3/4. In the mocks I'm doing, i am seeing QB's fall like crazy, and starting out with Graham/Dez, or Dez, AJ Green, and coming back in 3/4 with the best two RB's (ideally Bush, L. Miller, Wilson), or even a strong WR like Amendola, is looking pretty promising. I would seriously consider Peyton here too.

I'm in PPR, so if a guy like McCoy or Richardson falls to me at 12, I would most likely take them in the first. But I've mocked about 20 times, and Richardson fell once and McCoy has not fallen at all.

 

[ImTheScientist]

For a standard, 12 team, NON-ppr league start 2RB/3WR from all the different mocks I have done. I have felt most comfortable with my team going RB/RB at 1.12, 2.01. I typically will see McCoy/Forte/CJ/Lynch here. Then I come back and will grab WR/RB or WR/WR for a choice of Cruz/Jordy/Wallace/Colston/Amendola. For an RB I have seen Bush/Lacy/Stewart/BJE/Gio here. Then in 5th/6th finish w/WR/WR orWR/QB(depends on who is avail) else grab the QB at the next turn.

The WR depth seems really deep this year with alot of potential #1s sitting out there like A. and V.Brown, Amendola, T.Austin, Danario still there end of the 5th. While outside RB20-RB24 the dropoff is vertical.

So after 6 rounds a typical team I have drafted:

RB1:McCoy (yes I like RBs who touch the ball alot whether it is ppr or not)

RB2:Fote

RB3:Bush (I like)

WR1: Cruz

WR2:Brown

WR3: Amendola

and for QBs

Luck, Brady, Romo, Wilson.

for TEs

Gonzo, Finley, Owen, Olsen

Then pick up 2-3 more WRs and 3-4 rookie/backup RBs. This is a decent draft from the 12 hole.

There other route to go and it is the one I used last year successful to get to 3 league playoffs was basically to have the weakest link on the team being RB2. So I draft 3 WRs in the 1st 2 rounds that I feel can start all year and maybe a backup WR late. More likely just enter the season w/3WRs wait a few weeks and pick up a WR to help cover byes or as a replacement. So most of the draft after the 4th round is looking for potential RBs perhaps 4-5 more guys, a QB (Eli, Wilson, Brady) and a rookie QB(Geno?) late. I landed Ridley/Russel Wilson/ColinK/Spillar like this. A majority of the RBs will not pan out but you only need 1 of the RBs on your bench to pan out for RB2 and if you get a guy who breaks out for 2 games think of him as trade bait.

RB1/WR1

WR2/WR3

depends on your options: RB2, WR4 a backup, TE(only Witten or better) or possible a QB

the remainder of the draft is QB then alot of rookie/backup RBs or any who stand out in the preseason games. I decide before the draft which position I will consider my weakest spot and ignore this in the early rounds.

I don't like that team at all. With that said I also wonder how you are getting McCoy when McCoy's ADP is pick 8, let alone seeing CJ or Lynch there. I guess I don't feel you are being honest with yourself about your prospects at pick #12.

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