*** OFFICIAL *** 13/14 Off-Season Dynasty Trade Thread (4 Viewers)

[Concept Coop]

I think George Bush has something to say to those still paying top dollar for Josh Gordon.

 

[PatsWillWin]

I think George Bush has something to say to those still paying top dollar for Josh Gordon.

"Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, some fools will still give up multiple 1sts for you."

 

[Childress]

I'm the one getting Gordon, I've giving a lot for a huge risk, but believe it, my team is stacked enough to make this deal and not be put into much of a hole.

The 1 and only reason I want Gordon so badly is Manziel. I have a feeling, even if it's next year, that combo will set the NFL on fire.

 

[Concept Coop]

I'm the one getting Gordon, I've giving a lot for a huge risk, but believe it, my team is stacked enough to make this deal and not be put into much of a hole.

The 1 and only reason I want Gordon so badly is Manziel. I have a feeling, even if it's next year, that combo will set the NFL on fire.

Pardon my jest.

I have no doubts about his ability and the production he's likely put while playing. I just think he's shown a pretty clear pattern of behavior--one that will end his career if it continues. I wish the kid well, truly. Just couldn't imagine gambling much on him changing his life.

 

[dewmass]

Another Gordon trade PPR 12 teams QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR/F/TE

Gave him plus 2.09

Received 1.09 1.10

Had him in virtually every league I'm in but have moved on completely now. Love the talent but I'm also a big fan of Blackmon and holding too long and still drafting him relatively high in startups up to this year has scarred me.

 

[bengalbuck]

12 team PPR w/ superflex

Johnny Manziel, Roy Helu, 3.10

for

Demarco Murray, Joseph Randle

 

[Skeletore Eh]

12 team ppr QB - 2 RB - 3 WR - TE - FL

• Team A gave up Cooks, Brandin NOS WR
• Team B gave up Floyd, Michael ARI WR; Year 2014 Draft Pick 3.11 (Derek Carr, QB)

I'd take Floyd all day. In fact, this is making me want to offer 1.5 for Floyd!

You should offer it. I'd take Floyd easily as well

 

[FUBAR]

12 team ppr QB - 2 RB - 3 WR - TE - FL

• Team A gave up Cooks, Brandin NOS WR
• Team B gave up Floyd, Michael ARI WR; Year 2014 Draft Pick 3.11 (Derek Carr, QB)

I think I'd rather have Floyd, etc. than Cooks. I like Cooks but he seems like option 3/4 in that offense where Floyd will be #2 with the possibility of being #1 if the reports out of Arizona are true.

typical rookie over-hype.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

12 team ppr QB - 2 RB - 3 WR - TE - FL

• Team A gave up Cooks, Brandin NOS WR
• Team B gave up Floyd, Michael ARI WR; Year 2014 Draft Pick 3.11 (Derek Carr, QB)

I think I'd rather have Floyd, etc. than Cooks. I like Cooks but he seems like option 3/4 in that offense where Floyd will be #2 with the possibility of being #1 if the reports out of Arizona are true.

typical rookie over-hype.

Which part?

 

[Concept Coop]

typical rookie over-hype.

I don't know that I'd say that. Cooks was a legit 1st round talent in his own right, is in a better situation, and is four years younger. I think it's perfectly logical to like Cooks more than Floyd. I'd likely take Floyd, but I don't think this is an example of someone over-valuing rookies.

 

[doowain]

14 team w/ dev players. Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR/TE, 2 FLEX. .5/1/1.5 PPR for RB/WR/TE.

Gave:

1.08 dev pick

2015 1st

Got:

RB Tre Mason

Couple decent options in the devy pool. This is a draft-eligible devy only, so Gurley, Gordon, Yeldon, Davis, Karlos, etc. are all still out there. I didn't anticipate anyone falling to 1.08 that I'm very high on. Gambling that my first will be a late one next year. Had a horrible season in 2013, but have a pretty good roster of Luck/TRich/Gerhart/Fitzgerald/Graham/Cameron/Eifert/Ebron/Moncrief/etc.

A reasonable trade since the 2015 1st will be dinged by the devy players being gone.

I'm not sure I would be banking on that 2015 1st being a late one though. It's going to take several of those players having huge breakout years for that to happen.

I see Luck, Fitz, Graham, and Cameron as pretty strong redraft options. It's more uncertain with TRich, Gerhart, and Eifert, but if 1-2 of those guys are decent then I don't see my team in the bottom 4-5 this next year.

Late 1sts actually had a lot of value in this league this year (Mason went 1.13 and Hill 1.14), but I don't think next year's pool is nearly as deep.

Graham is a bonafide stud of course, but Luck and Fitz are really just solid starters that are good for consistent points on teams that are very strong elsewhere. Luck, of course, could make that big turn at any moment to become an elite FF stud, but he hasn't yet. QB7 last year in PPG and a full 4+ ppg behind the truly elite QBs. Not really a difference maker to this point in his career.

Cameron started really strong but faded big-time after the first month of the season. The return of Hoyer could propel him back into elite status (he was at his best with Hoyer in there), but it's far from a guarantee. The rest of the roster is a lot of hope. The fact that you're listing Moncrief, who is likely to be a part-time WR4 on his own team this year, and Ebron, a rookie at a position where rookies rarely every contribute majorly, amongst your guys competing for playing time is telling. To be fair though, I have never played in a 1.5 TE ppr league so that could be boosting those guy's value a lot higher than I'm giving them credit for.

Of course, this is fantasy football where preseason rankings mean little so that could very well be a championship team. It just looks to me like it would take a lot of good fortune and several major breakouts from those guys for that to be anywhere near a late pick, not something I'm sure I'd bank/gamble on when moving the pick.

That said, I think the trade itself is pretty fair. Even if the pick next year is early or mid it might not net a better prospect than Mason.

A little too much for Mason imo. Also, although I like the roster for dynasty, I do think the 2015 1st will be an earlier one rather than later (for the same reasons indicated above).

Agreed.

This team (minus Ebron/Mason/J.Hill) finished 1-12 last year. I think it's extremely optimistic to think that those additions make this roster playoff caliber.

 

[Concept Coop]

QRRWWWTF - 12Tm - PPR

Gave: 1.13, 2.10, 2nd(2015)

Got: 1.08

It's a lot to give up, considering the deep class, but my tier drop is at 9 and is big.

 

[Winning IS Everything]

QRRWWWTF - 12Tm - PPR

Gave: 1.13, 2.10, 2nd(2015)

Got: 1.08

It's a lot to give up, considering the deep class, but my tier drop is at 9 and is big.

I can see doing that if your guy is one that may not make it to 1.13. 2.10 and a 2015 2nd is not a bad price to pay to ensure getting your guy imho.

 

[cdubz]

QRRWWWTF - 12Tm - PPR

Gave: 1.13, 2.10, 2nd(2015)

Got: 1.08

It's a lot to give up, considering the deep class, but my tier drop is at 9 and is big.

I can see doing that if your guy is one that may not make it to 1.13. 2.10 and a 2015 2nd is not a bad price to pay to ensure getting your guy imho.

I feel you, I have it at #10 in that format - but would still do something similar. Especially if you think that will be a late 2nd next year.

 

[Chad Parsons]

12tm PPR

TRich and Nicks

For

1.05

 

[Chad Parsons]

12tm PPR

Gordon

For

1.04

 

[Andy Dufresne]

12tm PPR

TRich and Nicks
For
1.05

12tm PPR

Gordon
For
1.04

Give me the picks.

 

[Zyphros]

2TE 10 team .5ppr (all that matters), not involved

Team A trades: Gronkowski

Team B trades: Ertz, 2.2, 2015 2nd

Team A is trying to get a little younger

 

[Matty2D]

12 Team PPR, start 1 RB with 2 FLEX:

Team A Gave: Adrian Peterson, Tyler Eifert, Anquan Boldin, 2.04

Team B Gave: Alshon Jeffrey

 

[Matty2D]

2TE 10 team .5ppr (all that matters), not involved

Team A trades: Gronkowski

Team B trades: Ertz, 2.2, 2015 2nd

Team A is trying to get a little younger

Gronkowski side by a good bit. He's only a year and a half older then Ertz.

 

[Zyphros]

2TE 10 team .5ppr (all that matters), not involved

Team A trades: Gronkowski

Team B trades: Ertz, 2.2, 2015 2nd

Team A is trying to get a little younger

Gronkowski side by a good bit. He's only a year and a half older then Ertz.

Longer career is what I meant by "younger". Team A is worried about Gronk's future.

 

[FUBAR]

typical rookie over-hype.

I don't know that I'd say that. Cooks was a legit 1st round talent in his own right, is in a better situation, and is four years younger. I think it's perfectly logical to like Cooks more than Floyd. I'd likely take Floyd, but I don't think this is an example of someone over-valuing rookies.

Floyd has shown he can produce. To add anything to him to get a rookie who, while in a good situation, hasn't shown anything, seems like a typical "this rookie is awesome" line of thinking.

I could be wrong, but I'm ranking Cooks in the 3rd tier of this year's rookie crop, among Latimer, Benjamin and Adams. Behind Watkins/Evans and Beckham (my 3rd tier by himself). But I like Floyd a lot.

 

[Winning IS Everything]

12tm PPR

TRich and Nicks

For

1.05

12tm PPR

Gordon

For

1.04

Give me the picks.

I tend to agree with this. The first one is close for me but I still like the pick.

 

[Concept Coop]

2TE 10 team .5ppr (all that matters), not involved

Team A trades: Gronkowski

Team B trades: Ertz, 2.2, 2015 2nd

Team A is trying to get a little younger

Oof! A start 2 TE league? This is as bad as it gets. I haven't done the math, but I feel safe suggesting that Gronk, PPG, is one of the best fantasy options of all time in this format.

Gronk could tear his ACL again and still be worth more than this.

 

[FUBAR]

12 Team PPR, start 1 RB with 2 FLEX:

Team A Gave: Adrian Peterson, Tyler Eifert, Anquan Boldin, 2.04

Team B Gave: Alshon Jeffrey

so this is AD's value? I've looking to deal him but I don't know if I'd add Eifert to this package.

 

[Concept Coop]

12 Team PPR, start 1 RB with 2 FLEX:

Team A Gave: Adrian Peterson, Tyler Eifert, Anquan Boldin, 2.04

Team B Gave: Alshon Jeffrey

so this is AD's value? I've looking to deal him but I don't know if I'd add Eifert to this package.

In start one, I think this is a good deal for the new Alshon owner. In start 2x RB leagues--I'm with you. Not enough value for Peterson, unless you're rebuilding.

 

[Matty2D]

12 Team PPR, start 1 RB with 2 FLEX:

Team A Gave: Adrian Peterson, Tyler Eifert, Anquan Boldin, 2.04

Team B Gave: Alshon Jeffrey

so this is AD's value? I've looking to deal him but I don't know if I'd add Eifert to this package.

I was the team getting Jeffrey. I have Gronk at TE so I felt comfortable letting Eifert go (have Olsen too as a stop-gap). Start 1 RB is the reason why I gave up the haul, I have Foster, Vereen and Rice that can all chip in, and had Allen and Floyd as my WR.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

2TE 10 team .5ppr (all that matters), not involved

Team A trades: Gronkowski

Team B trades: Ertz, 2.2, 2015 2nd

Team A is trying to get a little younger

Oof! A start 2 TE league? This is as bad as it gets. I haven't done the match, but I feel safe suggesting that Gronk, PPG, is one of the best fantasy options of all time in this format.

Gronk could tear his ACL again and still be worth more than this.

Yeah this is horrid.

 

[cstu]

2TE 10 team .5ppr (all that matters), not involved

Team A trades: Gronkowski

Team B trades: Ertz, 2.2, 2015 2nd

Team A is trying to get a little younger

Oof! A start 2 TE league? This is as bad as it gets. I haven't done the match, but I feel safe suggesting that Gronk, PPG, is one of the best fantasy options of all time in this format.

Gronk could tear his ACL again and still be worth more than this.

Yeah this is horrid.

Unless Ertz turns into a stud and he gets ASJ or Amaro at 2.2.

 

[Zyphros]

2TE 10 team .5ppr (all that matters), not involved

Team A trades: Gronkowski

Team B trades: Ertz, 2.2, 2015 2nd

Team A is trying to get a little younger

Oof! A start 2 TE league? This is as bad as it gets. I haven't done the match, but I feel safe suggesting that Gronk, PPG, is one of the best fantasy options of all time in this format.

Gronk could tear his ACL again and still be worth more than this.

Yeah this is horrid.

Unless Ertz turns into a stud and he gets ASJ or Amaro at 2.2.

I think it could be one of those trades that looks great/regrettable down the road. Depending on how those picks end up and how the rest of Gronk's career goes.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

12tm PPR

TRich and Nicks

For

1.05

This is the type of deal that can turn out to be a major steal for either side.

 

[Scoonie Pencil]

2TE 10 team .5ppr (all that matters), not involved

Team A trades: Gronkowski

Team B trades: Ertz, 2.2, 2015 2nd

Team A is trying to get a little younger

Oof! A start 2 TE league? This is as bad as it gets. I haven't done the match, but I feel safe suggesting that Gronk, PPG, is one of the best fantasy options of all time in this format.

Gronk could tear his ACL again and still be worth more than this.

Yeah this is horrid.

Unless Ertz turns into a stud and he gets ASJ or Amaro at 2.2.

I think it could be one of those trades that looks great/regrettable down the road. Depending on how those picks end up and how the rest of Gronk's career goes.

The former Gronk trade could technically have won this trade in hindsight in terms of production. BUT he left value on the table IMO. So give me Gronk.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

2TE 10 team .5ppr (all that matters), not involved

Team A trades: Gronkowski

Team B trades: Ertz, 2.2, 2015 2nd

Team A is trying to get a little younger

Gronkowski side by a good bit. He's only a year and a half older then Ertz.

Longer career is what I meant by "younger". Team A is worried about Gronk's future.

In case he wins the lottery and decides to retire?

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Non-PPR

I gave up:
Richardson, Trent IND RB

I got:
Year 2014 Draft Pick 1.08
Year 2014 Draft Pick 3.08

Yep. Jumping ship on that...ship. Glad to get anything of value, much less that.

 

[Concept Coop]

Unless Ertz turns into a stud and he gets ASJ or Amaro at 2.2.

You could use potential hindsight to justify any trade. If the player drafted 2.07 ends up being better than the player drafted at 1.01--was it a good trade to send the 1.01 for the 2.07?

 

[Scoonie Pencil]

1QB-2RB-3WR-1TE-1Flex-K-D, 4pt passing tds, PPR (1.5ppr for TEs)

Team A receives: Terrence Williams, 2.2

Team B receives: DJax

Team C receives: Brandon Marshall, Rashad Jennings

Team D receives: DeMarco Murray, Colin Kaepernick, Justin Hunter, 1.12

Team E receives: Ertz, 3.4

Team B receives: Dwayne Allen, Danny Amedola, 2.2

Team C receives: Alfred Morris, Heath Miller, 3.9

Team F receives: Ladarius Green, 1.11

 

[EBF]

I think I like the Gronk side in that deal, but how highly you rate him is going to hinge on how fully you accept that:

1. He's going to come back with 100% of his talent and produce like the Gronk of old.

2. He's going to be able to stay relatively healthy.

Some people are a lot more sold on those assumptions than others and I think that's why he seems be a polarizing player right now. There are a lot of ways this can go and anyone trading him should obviously sell the "ppg monster" angle hard, but we might look back on this as still being a sell high window if he never regains his old form and/or gets hurt yet again.

 

[cdubz]

1QB-2RB-3WR-1TE-1Flex-K-D, 4pt passing tds, PPR (1.5ppr for TEs)

Team A receives: Terrence Williams, 2.2

Team B receives: DJax

Team C receives: Brandon Marshall, Rashad Jennings

Team D receives: DeMarco Murray, Colin Kaepernick, Justin Hunter, 1.12

Team E receives: Ertz, 3.4

Team B receives: Dwayne Allen, Danny Amedola, 2.2

Team C receives: Alfred Morris, Heath Miller, 3.9

Team F receives: Ladarius Green, 1.11

I would take:

A

D in a landslide

B

F

 

[Concept Coop]

I think I like the Gronk side in that deal, but how highly you rate him is going to hinge on how fully you accept that:

I can respect people being weery of Gronk's injury history, though I think much of it is unjustified panic (to sneak that in there ).

But in this format, a healthy Gronk is a top 2 player, worst case, by a wide margin (unless you start 4+ WRs). How could you jusftiy moving that potential for Ertz--an unproven/non-elite prospect--and a couple 2nd rounders?

 

[Late225]

In a rebuild I had 1.03 / 1.06 / 1.09 / 1.11 / 1.13 (too many eggs in one basket for my taste)

Combo of 2 trades

gave 1.09 / 1.11 / 3.10 / 3.11 for 2 2015 1sts ( I expect 1 of them to be in the bottom half) 2nd & 3rd

I would have held the picks. 2014 is a great year to re-build. 1.09 and 1.11 are the estimated equivalent of 1.04 and 1.06 in a normal year. 2015 COULD be a good year as well, but no guarantees.... Bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush...

Why get cute? Too many eggs in one basket is not a valid reason to make a deal. I'm sure that your trade partners were thrilled to get another pick in this stacked year!

Should also be noted that it's a 14 team league

Is everyone from this league on these boards? Lol.

 

[EBF]

I think I like the Gronk side in that deal, but how highly you rate him is going to hinge on how fully you accept that:

I can respect people being weery of Gronk's injury history, though I think much of it is unjustified panic (to sneak that in there ).

But in this format, a healthy Gronk is a top 2 player, worse case, by a wide margin (unless you start 4+ WRs). How could you jusftiy moving that potential for Ertz--an unproven/non-elite prospect--and a couple 2nd rounders?

I like the Gronk side for the reasons you mentioned. Unlikely Ertz will ever sniff what he's capable of.

But there's a bit of a Blackmon/Gordon/Lattimore stigma to Gronk IMO. If all you look at is the past ppg, you could miss some of the red flags. For the most part though, the risk seems to be reflected in his current market value. He's not pulling top 10 overall value at the moment. I just think he's a guy where a trade can seem very lopsided when you look at him only in terms of his past achievements and not necessarily in terms of his value moving forward. Lots of ??? there.

 

[humpback]

I think I like the Gronk side in that deal, but how highly you rate him is going to hinge on how fully you accept that:

I can respect people being weery of Gronk's injury history, though I think much of it is unjustified panic (to sneak that in there ).

But in this format, a healthy Gronk is a top 2 player, worse case, by a wide margin (unless you start 4+ WRs). How could you jusftiy moving that potential for Ertz--an unproven/non-elite prospect--and a couple 2nd rounders?

Because he's not a "healthy Gronk" right now. Some people are higher on Ertz than you are, and it's not just "a couple of 2nd rounders"- it's the #12 overall in this deep draft class, and if it's the same team's pick next year, it's likely to be a fairly high one as well.

I see what you're saying, but I just don't think it's as lopsided as you.

 

[maf005]

What can I get for D Thomas? Looking for Watkins/Evans plus picks

 

[Concept Coop]

Because he's not a "healthy Gronk" right now. Some people are higher on Ertz than you are, and it's not just "a couple of 2nd rounders"- it's the #12 overall in this deep draft class, and if it's the same team's pick next year, it's likely to be a fairly high one as well.

I see what you're saying, but I just don't think it's as lopsided as you.

I see what you are saying too, and just disagree. In a 10 team league, it's all about studs. In a 10 team, start 2x TE league--especially so at TE.

The 2.02 is the 2.02. That fact that it's the #12 overall pick is offset by the fact that it's a 10 team league.

In 2011, Gronk produces 165 VBD in 10 team non-PPR leagues. Ertz is unlikely to do that in his career (correct me if I am wrong, but I believe the average late first rounder produces around 110-150 career VBD in 12 team leagues, where it is easier to rack up VBD). How many solid TE prospects are worth even a 50% chance at a healthy Gronk for 3 years? More than Ertz and a couple 2nds. And I think we can all agree that 50/50 odds on Gronk being healthy for 3 years is cautious, as he just turned 25 last week.

I'm a documented Gronk fan, with a documented pro-stance on his injury history (in relation to the market)--so take my opinion for what it's worth. But I honestly don't think trades get much worse than this.

 

[Concept Coop]

What can I get for D Thomas? Looking for Watkins/Evans plus picks

Likely the wrong thread for such questions, however:

Recent trade that I don't recall posting:

QRRWWWTFF 14tm 1/1/1.5 TE

Gave: 1.03/1.04/2.11

Got: D. Thomas

 

[Hankmoody]

1. Team 3 / Team 10 Trade

Team 3 gave up Year 2014 Draft Pick 1.03
Team 10 gave up Swearinger, D.J. HOU S; Year 2014 Draft Pick 2.05; Year 2015 Round 1 Draft Pick from Team 10; $12 in blind bidding

Tue May 13 12:45:53 p.m. ET 2014
Pre-draft. 1.03 ended up being Hyde, 2.05 ended up being Freeman

2. Team 6 / Team 3 Trade

Team 6 gave up Year 2014 Draft Pick 1.07; Year 2015 Round 1 Draft Pick from Team 6
Team 3 gave up Watkins, Sammy BUF WR

Mon May 19 1:16:01 p.m. ET 2014
After pick 1 completed. 1.07 ended up being Ebron. Pretty big undersell for Watkins, but Team 3 didn't like Watkins and wanted to cash out on a guy he believes won't be elite.

3. Team 9 / Team 3 Trade

Team 9 gave up Year 2014 Draft Pick 2.09; Year 2015 Round 1 Draft Pick from Team 9
Team 3 gave up Year 2014 Draft Pick 1.10

Mon May 19 11:19:07 p.m. ET 2014
OTC - 1.10 ended up being Moseley, 2.09 ended up being Shazier

4. Team 3 / Team 2 Trade

Team 3 gave up Adams, Davante GBP WR
Team 2 gave up Jennings, Greg MIN WR; Year 2015 Round 1 Draft Pick from Team 2

Tue May 20 8:35:08 a.m. ET 2014
OTC - Adams picked by OTC team and traded

5. Team 8 / Team 7 Trade

Team 8 gave up Palmer, Carson ARI QB; Year 2014 Draft Pick 2.12;Year 2014 Draft Pick 3.12
Team 7 gave up Year 2015 Round 1 Draft Pick from Team 7; $7 in blind bidding

Tue May 20 3:22:11 p.m. ET 2014
OTC - 2.12 ended up being Teddy Bridgewater, 3.12 ended up being Telvin Smith

6. Team 4 / Team 3 Trade

Team 4 gave up Year 2014 Draft Pick 4.12; Year 2015 Round 3 Draft Pick from Team 4
Team 3 gave up Year 2014 Draft Pick 3.11

Tue May 20 11:04:40 p.m. ET 2014
OTC - 3.11 ended up being Anthony Barr, 4.12 ended up being traded back to Team 4 below (Pryor)

7. Team 7 / Team 3 Trade

Team 7 gave up Year 2014 Draft Pick 5.10; Year 2015 Round 2 Draft Pick from Team 7
Team 3 gave up Year 2014 Draft Pick 3.10; Year 2015 Round 6 Draft Pick from Team 3

Tue May 20 11:04:41 p.m. ET 2014
OTC - 3.10 ended up being Charles Sims (Martin owner), 5.10 parleyed below and is currently on the clock.

8. Team 6 / Team 5 Trade

Team 6 gave up Year 2014 Draft Pick 4.06;Year 2014 Draft Pick 5.01
Team 5 gave up Year 2014 Draft Pick 4.01

Wed May 21 8:49:32 a.m. ET 2014
OTC - 4.01 ended up being Chris Borland, 4.06 ended up being John Brown, 5.01 ended up being Kony Ealy

9. Team 5 / Team 4 Trade

Team 5 gave up Year 2014 Draft Pick 6.10; $8 in blind bidding
Team 4 gave up Year 2014 Draft Pick 4.03;Year 2014 Draft Pick 4.05

Wed May 21 2:01:57 p.m. ET 2014
OTC - 4.03 ended up being Martavius Bryant, 4.05 ended up being Jerrick McKinnon

10. Team 3 / Team 4 Trade

Team 3 gave up Year 2014 Draft Pick 4.12;Year 2014 Draft Pick 5.10
Team 4 gave up Year 2014 Draft Pick 4.08

Wed May 21 3:23:16 p.m. ET 2014
OTC - 4.08 ended up being Lamin Barrow, 4.12 ended up being Calvin Pryor, 5.10 ended up being Jason Gilbert

11. Team 1 / Team 2 Trade

Team 1 gave up Year 2014 Draft Pick 4.11
Team 2 gave up $4 in blind bidding

Wed May 21 4:56:58 p.m. ET 2014
OTC - 4.11 ended up being Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix

 

[humpback]

Because he's not a "healthy Gronk" right now. Some people are higher on Ertz than you are, and it's not just "a couple of 2nd rounders"- it's the #12 overall in this deep draft class, and if it's the same team's pick next year, it's likely to be a fairly high one as well.

I see what you're saying, but I just don't think it's as lopsided as you.

I see what you are saying too, and just disagree. In a 10 team league, it's all about studs. In a 10 team, start 2x TE league--especially so at TE.

The 2.02 is the 2.02. That fact that it's the #12 overall pick is offset by the fact that it's a 10 team league.

In 2011, Gronk produces 165 VBD in 10 team non-PPR leagues. Ertz is unlikely to do that in his career (correct me if I am wrong, but I believe the average late first rounder produces around 110-150 career VBD in 12 team leagues, where it is easier to rack up VBD). How many solid TE prospects are worth even a 50% chance at a healthy Gronk for 3 years? More than Ertz and a couple 2nds. And I think we can all agree that 50/50 odds on Gronk being healthy for 3 years is cautious, as he just turned 25 last week.

I'm a documented Gronk fan, with a documented pro-stance on his injury history (in relation to the market)--so take my opinion for what it's worth. But I honestly don't think trades get much worse than this.

The #12 pick is worth more than say the #20 pick no matter how many teams are in the league- you're likely to get a better player there.

What is a "healthy Gronk for 3 years"? How many games does he play during that stretch? How many Is he 100% for? Is he with Brady for them all? He's obviously great, but so is Fitzgerald, and we've seen how limiting injuries and poor QB play have been for him.

As for bad trades, I've seen several just in the last couple of pages which seem much worse than this one.

 

[Concept Coop]

The #12 pick is worth more than say the #20 pick no matter how many teams are in the league- you're likely to get a better player there.

What is a "healthy Gronk for 3 years"? How many games does he play during that stretch? How many Is he 100% for? Is he with Brady for them all? He's obviously great, but so is Fitzgerald, and we've seen how limiting injuries and poor QB play have been for him.

As for bad trades, I've seen several just in the last couple of pages which seem much worse than this one.

You're likely to get a better player, but your baselines are higher the smaller your league is--you need better players to win.

We have different opinions on the two players involved, so we're not going to agree on this trade.

I'm not going to convince you that Gronk's health history is laregly flukey--a nasty hit that would have torn anyone's ACL and a broken forearm which has been healed and is not likely to be an issue in the future. I'm not likely to convince you that Gronk's back history is overblown, with little chance to shorten his career, based on the 95% success rate of the initial surgery, and the 95% success rate of the follow up IF the first one doesn't do it.

You're not likely to convince me that his injury history is an accurate predictor of future injury issues.

Thus, we're not likely to agree on the deal.

 

[humpback]

The #12 pick is worth more than say the #20 pick no matter how many teams are in the league- you're likely to get a better player there.

What is a "healthy Gronk for 3 years"? How many games does he play during that stretch? How many Is he 100% for? Is he with Brady for them all? He's obviously great, but so is Fitzgerald, and we've seen how limiting injuries and poor QB play have been for him.

As for bad trades, I've seen several just in the last couple of pages which seem much worse than this one.

You're likely to get a better player, but your baselines are higher the smaller your league is--you need better players to win.

We have different opinions on the two players involved, so we're not going to agree on this trade.

I'm not going to convince you that Gronk's health history is laregly flukey--a nasty hit that would have torn anyone's ACL and a broken forearm which has been healed and is not likely to be an issue in the future. I'm not likely to convince you that Gronk's back history is overblown, with little chance to shorten his career, based on the 95% success rate of the initial surgery, and the 95% success rate of the follow up IF the first one doesn't do it.

You're not likely to convince me that his injury history is an accurate predictor of future injury issues.

Thus, we're not likely to agree on the deal.

I'm not trying to convince you of anything. I like the Gronk side of the deal as well, I just disagree with how lopsided you think it is and some of your reasoning.

Again, it's irrelevant if it's 10 teams or 20 teams- the #12 pick is worth more than a later pick in all formats. Not that it really matters, but we don't even know the rest of the settings- maybe they start 2 QBs, 4 WRs, etc? In any event, we know they start 20 TEs, which makes Ertz more valuable as well. If he gets ASJ or Amaro with the #12, that closes the gap some too.

I've certainly seen worse recently in this very thread-

the #2 overall and A. Brown for Dez and the #5

Lynch and Dobson for the #11 and 4.02

A likely late 1st in 2015 and 2.1 and 2.2 for Charles and Welker

Cameron and 2.07 for Lynch and 1.06

Harvin and a 2nd and 3rd in 2015 for 2.02, 3.02, 3.03, 3.12

Romo and Jordy for Cutler

All posted in here in the last couple of days.

ETA- IMO it's not even the worst deal involving Gronk in the last couple of days

Dennis Johnson, Lacy, Starks, Pitta, and NE D for Gronk, Khiry Robinson, 1.03 and a 1st and 2nd in 2015

Gronk for Clay and Ertz

Both worse IMO.

 

[KarmaPolice]

very flexible starters, 12 team , ppr, 1.5/catch for tes

2 trades went through today:

2015 1st

for

T.Brady

D.Murray

for

Edelman, M.Bennett, 2015 2nd