*** OFFICIAL *** 13/14 Off-Season Dynasty Trade Thread (3 Viewers)

[maxhyde]

14-team Devy PPR

Gave: 2.5, Jonathon Stewart

Got: David Wilson

Sure a bit of a gamble for Wilson, but all the news recently suggests he should be fine. I do also have Andre Brown too for insurance. Figured 2.5 is more like a mid-20s pick since it's a 14-teamer with devys. Some of the studs like Watkins, Lee, Carey and Seastrunk are all gone so even the 1st round could get slim by the end. And Stewart has never lived up to the hype or done anything.

I think I would gamble on Wilson if only to get rid of Stewart and think I got "something"

 

[maxhyde]

Got an interesting one for you guys that I just completed.

League is a Superflex Tiered PPR - Starting 1 QB/WR/RB/TE 4 Flex RB/WR/TE 1 Superflex QB/RB/WR/TE (PPR 1.5 TE, 1 WR, 0.5 RB)

Gave: Tony Romo, Brandon Marshall, 2014 Rookie 2.11

Received: Matt Ryan, Eric Decker, 2014 Rookie 1.10, 2014 Devy 1.10 (That rookie 1.10 should be valued around 2.03ish in a non devy league based on who is rostered)

Ryan side for me.

 

[Black]

Actually, what we've seen is that Ingram looks good running the ball but has been on an offense that doesn't consistently do that. Situation is important, and he can't do the things for that offense that Sproles can, and he's not as versatile as Thomas. New Orleans' offense isn't a fit for him, but if he moves on at some point soon I won't be surprised if he's better than Michaels.

Watching all these Ingram moves...would it surprise anyone to see a Moreno-like resurgence for him in a good situation with more workload? He would be another in that group of mid-late twenty-something RBs that start producing 'all of a sudden.'

I think it might be worth a gample.

Also, I think I prefer the RB side of the Forte for 1.01 and Rice for 1.10 trades, as long as you are not rebuilding and 2 years away from contending.

 

[Black]

Gave: Tony Romo, Brandon Marshall, 2014 Rookie 2.11Received: Matt Ryan, Eric Decker, 2014 Rookie 1.10, 2014 Devy 1.10 (That rookie 1.10 should be valued around 2.03ish in a non devy league based on who is rostered)

I like Ryan more than Romo, and think if Decker lands in a good situation, he could approach Marshall's production. I say that now only because of what Alshon appears to be becoming for that offense. After that, the 1.10 in a very deep WR rookie draft should net you a good shot at a WR2.

 

[Black]

12 team ppr

TRich, 2.04

For

Kendall Wright, 1.11, 1.12

Andrew Luck

For

Nick Foles and Monte Ball

I like the K.Wright side...esp in a PPR. Touchdowns will come with more consistency on offense. Plus you get two late 1sts to take two shots at one of about 8 RBs that are likely there.

I would have a hard time letting Luck go. Foles did it only for one year. I'd take him as part of a QB committee in redraft, but would not gamble in Dynasty that he could approach the long term value of Luck. Ball doesn't catch the ball out of the backfield, will be in a timeshare with someone, so his upside feels capped.. Plus, that offense will slow drastically without Peyton.

 

[MoveToSkypager]

14-team Devy PPR

Gave: 2.5, Jonathon Stewart

Got: David Wilson

Sure a bit of a gamble for Wilson, but all the news recently suggests he should be fine. I do also have Andre Brown too for insurance. Figured 2.5 is more like a mid-20s pick since it's a 14-teamer with devys. Some of the studs like Watkins, Lee, Carey and Seastrunk are all gone so even the 1st round could get slim by the end. And Stewart has never lived up to the hype or done anything.

If you are starting either Wilson or Stewart, you are in deep ####. So I'll take the free 2.5 to go along with exchanging one bad RB for another.

 

[MoveToSkypager]

Devy League

Kaepernick

2014 1.11 rookie

2015 1st rd rookie

2015 1st rd devy

For

Zac Stacy

Team that traded kaep has foles and dalton

No excuse. This was trade rape. The Stacy dealer got rich off of this.

 

[MattFancy]

14-team Devy PPR

Gave: 2.5, Jonathon Stewart

Got: David Wilson

Sure a bit of a gamble for Wilson, but all the news recently suggests he should be fine. I do also have Andre Brown too for insurance. Figured 2.5 is more like a mid-20s pick since it's a 14-teamer with devys. Some of the studs like Watkins, Lee, Carey and Seastrunk are all gone so even the 1st round could get slim by the end. And Stewart has never lived up to the hype or done anything.

If you are starting either Wilson or Stewart, you are in deep ####. So I'll take the free 2.5 to go along with exchanging one bad RB for another.

Hopefullly not starting Wilson, at least until he proves he's healthy. Also have Ryan Mathews, Pierre Thomas, Lache Seastrunk, Andre Brown and Shonn Greene. I still have 1.12 so that could be another RB if needed. Feel like if Wilson and show he's healthy, my RB corps could have some nice depth to it in a start 1 RB league.

 

[One More Rep]

14-team Devy PPR

Gave: 2.5, Jonathon Stewart

Got: David Wilson

Sure a bit of a gamble for Wilson, but all the news recently suggests he should be fine. I do also have Andre Brown too for insurance. Figured 2.5 is more like a mid-20s pick since it's a 14-teamer with devys. Some of the studs like Watkins, Lee, Carey and Seastrunk are all gone so even the 1st round could get slim by the end. And Stewart has never lived up to the hype or done anything.

At this point I would take the 2.5

 

[EBF]

Stewart will only be 27 next season. I know all about the red flags, but to me he's still a player that I'd like to have on the end of my bench as a "what if."

Add in the 2.05 and I would rather have that package than Wilson, who hasn't shown much in the league and has the neck stuff to boot.

 

[ghostguy123]

Gave: Tony Romo, Brandon Marshall, 2014 Rookie 2.11Received: Matt Ryan, Eric Decker, 2014 Rookie 1.10, 2014 Devy 1.10 (That rookie 1.10 should be valued around 2.03ish in a non devy league based on who is rostered)

I like Ryan more than Romo, and think if Decker lands in a good situation, he could approach Marshall's production. I say that now only because of what Alshon appears to be becoming for that offense. After that, the 1.10 in a very deep WR rookie draft should net you a good shot at a WR2.

Man, I can't help but feel some of you are SEVERELY overrating Decker if he were to leave Denver.

Best part of his game is short-intermediate routes. Peyton Manning is the best short-intermediate passer ever.

 

[ShaHBucks]

12 team PPR, 1.25 ppr for TE

(Rice owner)

Vereen, Shane NEP RB

Finley, Jermichael GBP TE

Year 2014 Draft Pick 2.05

For

Pierce, Bernard BAL RB

Cook, Jared STL TE

Year 2014 Draft Pick 2.01

Year 2014 Draft Pick 3.07

 

[maxhyde]

12 team PPR, 1.25 ppr for TE

(Rice owner)

Vereen, Shane NEP RB

Finley, Jermichael GBP TE

Year 2014 Draft Pick 2.05

For

Pierce, Bernard BAL RB

Cook, Jared STL TE

Year 2014 Draft Pick 2.01

Year 2014 Draft Pick 3.07

Vereen

 

[One More Rep]

12 team PPR, 1.25 ppr for TE

(Rice owner)

Vereen, Shane NEP RB

Finley, Jermichael GBP TE

Year 2014 Draft Pick 2.05

For

Pierce, Bernard BAL RB

Cook, Jared STL TE

Year 2014 Draft Pick 2.01

Year 2014 Draft Pick 3.07

Vereen

 

[Coeur de Lion]

12 team PPR, 1.25 ppr for TE

(Rice owner)

Vereen, Shane NEP RB

Finley, Jermichael GBP TE

Year 2014 Draft Pick 2.05

For

Pierce, Bernard BAL RB

Cook, Jared STL TE

Year 2014 Draft Pick 2.01

Year 2014 Draft Pick 3.07

I think I actually prefer Pierce, but given Vereen's current market value relative to that of Pierce I'm not sure i would have pulled the trigger on this, Rice owner or no.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

will only be 27 next season.

"What is something I never thought I'd hear EBF say about a RB"

 

[Hankmoody]

I think Watkins is safer (even in Oakland) but Patterson's upside is higher. That comes with a caveat though because I think Patterson reaching his all world upside is pretty slim. It's a fair deal to me. The pick offers a little bit of benefit in liquidity and possible appreciation but I think most teams want Patterson so that's a minor concern.

Physically, maybe. But technically, Watkins is better today than Patterson ever will be. Patterson is learning how to play WR on the job. He'll gain some polish and might even learn to run the entire route tree, but he'll never be technician--it's too late in the process for that.

Patterson's upside was always a bigger Percy Harvin with less polish and more size, and I think we forgot that. Now that we're all looking for the next Josh Gordon, we're shoving the square through the circle shape.

Boom or bust WR2 is the likely outcome for Patterson, imo. I say this as a Patterson owner in more than one league, but he has a ways to go before he can be relied on to be a steady NFL WR2. The homeruns will be there, but I wouldn't count on them happening at pace they did over the 2nd half of the season.

This is what I never understand about fantasy football. Sure Watkins can be a great pick but it is all about being safe with upside. We all know Patterson is about to explode and can play in the NFL. Sammy Watkins had a busted year in college just two years ago. But Sammy is more coveted? Why? This hyping of players needs to stop. Evans or any other WR in the draft could be better as time moves on. Wanting Watkins over Patterson is a perfect example of how people value age more than even production.

Please, by all means, as the owner of the 1.1, allow it to proceed. Hype it away.

I'm a big fan of Patterson, but the QB situation has to be scary. If they blow it again, you're talking about 3-4 years of Patterson's production wasted. And if you're in a contract/seniority league, you're having to renew or fight for him in the face of that uncertainty. I'd have no problem paying premium for AJ Green coming off his rookie deal, but are you really going to want to bid against some raging fan over Patterson?

 

[Concept Coop]

Man, I can't help but feel some of you are SEVERELY overrating Decker if he were to leave Denver.
Best part of his game is short-intermediate routes. Peyton Manning is the best short-intermediate passer ever.

Leaving Denver will be a major hit to his value, no doubt. Otherwise he'd be valued like the WR1 he's been with Manning at QB. But there is a healhty chance that he re-signs, based on what I've read about the situation.

Also, he got deep frequently with Orton and Tebow, prior to Thomas coming back healthy and taking that role. He's a solid deep threat too.

ETA: In fact, I remember when he was thought of as "only a deep threat" in the Rankings Thread.

 

[EBF]

will only be 27 next season.

"What is something I never thought I'd hear EBF say about a RB"

People act like JStew is dead. The last two years have been a total flop, but age-wise the guy is still in his athletic prime.

If he can somehow get healthy and stay healthy, there's a pretty large window of potential utility.

I wouldn't be too keen on using a top 10-20 startup pick on a 27 year old RB, but as a late round flyer, sure.

 

[Hankmoody]

Gave: Tony Romo, Brandon Marshall, 2014 Rookie 2.11Received: Matt Ryan, Eric Decker, 2014 Rookie 1.10, 2014 Devy 1.10 (That rookie 1.10 should be valued around 2.03ish in a non devy league based on who is rostered)

I like Ryan more than Romo, and think if Decker lands in a good situation, he could approach Marshall's production. I say that now only because of what Alshon appears to be becoming for that offense. After that, the 1.10 in a very deep WR rookie draft should net you a good shot at a WR2.

Man, I can't help but feel some of you are SEVERELY overrating Decker if he were to leave Denver.

Best part of his game is short-intermediate routes. Peyton Manning is the best short-intermediate passer ever.

There are plenty of QB's that can deliver it in this range. It all depends on which situation he goes to, and I agree I'd be slightly more cautious until I knew. Indy, NE, PIT, WAS, SEA, DET, all have QB's that can get him the ball, someone opposite him to take enough attention away, and coaches/systems that will air it out enough for 2 WR's to sustain viability as fantasy plays. It's all about where he goes (or stays).

 

[Coeur de Lion]

will only be 27 next season.

"What is something I never thought I'd hear EBF say about a RB"

People act like JStew is dead. The last two years have been a total flop, but age-wise the guy is still in his athletic prime.

If he can somehow get healthy and stay healthy, there's a pretty large window of potential utility.

I wouldn't be too keen on using a top 10-20 startup pick on a 27 year old RB, but as a late round flyer, sure.

We've always agreed on Stewart's talent -- we just disagree on the likelihood of the situation changing in the next few years.

I just find it amusing that Stewart is "only 27" while CJ Spiller and countless other dudes you don't like have been "already 25 / 26."

 

[EBF]

I like Decker okay, but I don't buy him as a #1 NFL WR.

He's maybe a half notch above a Mike Williams/Stevie Johnson/Torrey Smith/Mike Wallace level player.

In FF or the NFL, you don't want to be the team that tries to make him its #1.

 

[EBF]

We've always agreed on Stewart's talent -- we just disagree on the likelihood of the situation changing in the next few years.

I just find it amusing that Stewart is "only 27" while CJ Spiller and countless other dudes you don't like have been "already 25 / 26."

All about the price. You give me Spiller in the 13th round and I'll be doing cartwheels.

Can't compare a guy with a 150+ ADP with a guy who will set you back a top 30-40 pick. Totally different universe.

I believe in buying players who are undervalued. That usually means buying unproven players who are available because people haven't yet realized how good they are and buying proven players who have become afterthoughts after years of adversity even though they may have some tread left on the tire. Every year brings a few of these reclamation projects like Ryan Mathews, Ricky Williams (post-suspensions), Randy Moss (post-Oakland), Marshawn Lynch (post-Buffalo), and Joey Galloway. This year I've got guys like Toby Gerhart, Jonathan Stewart, and Santonio Holmes on the shopping list. All have shown flashes of rare talent in the past. All are available for virtually nothing.

 

[maxhyde]

We've always agreed on Stewart's talent -- we just disagree on the likelihood of the situation changing in the next few years.

I just find it amusing that Stewart is "only 27" while CJ Spiller and countless other dudes you don't like have been "already 25 / 26."

All about the price. You give me Spiller in the 13th round and I'll be doing cartwheels.

Can't compare a guy with a 150+ ADP with a guy who will set you back a top 30-40 pick. Totally different universe.

I believe in buying players who are undervalued. That usually means buying unproven players who are available because people haven't yet realized how good they are and buying proven players who have become afterthoughts after years of adversity even though they may have some tread left on the tire. Every year brings a few of these reclamation projects like Ryan Mathews, Ricky Williams (post-suspensions), Randy Moss (post-Oakland), Marshawn Lynch (post-Buffalo), and Joey Galloway. This year I've got guys like Toby Gerhart, Jonathan Stewart, and Santonio Holmes on the shopping list. All have shown flashes of rare talent in the past. All are available for virtually nothing.

Wouldn't Wilson be one of those reclamation/undervalued projects? Except 22 not 27 and with 1 year vs the 5 years of disappointment

 

[ghostguy123]

Man, I can't help but feel some of you are SEVERELY overrating Decker if he were to leave Denver.
Best part of his game is short-intermediate routes. Peyton Manning is the best short-intermediate passer ever.

Leaving Denver will be a major hit to his value, no doubt. Otherwise he'd be valued like the WR1 he's been with Manning at QB. But there is a healhty chance that he re-signs, based on what I've read about the situation.

Also, he got deep frequently with Orton and Tebow, prior to Thomas coming back healthy and taking that role. He's a solid deep threat too.

ETA: In fact, I remember when he was thought of as "only a deep threat" in the Rankings Thread.

How can people take others seriously when they consider him as "only a deep threat"?? Had to be a product of group think started by people who never watch football.

He was probably viewed to only get deep passes with Tebow because Tebow sucks at everything else.

yes if he leaves, major it. If he stays, he will retain his value. But I am not sure how it will work out to get him to stay. Lot of money.

I am thinking they need to restructure MANNING to like a 4-5 year deal with spread out guaranteed, and eat some money for a few years in like 2016-2019

 

[ghostguy123]

will only be 27 next season.

"What is something I never thought I'd hear EBF say about a RB"

People act like JStew is dead. The last two years have been a total flop, but age-wise the guy is still in his athletic prime.

If he can somehow get healthy and stay healthy, there's a pretty large window of potential utility.

I wouldn't be too keen on using a top 10-20 startup pick on a 27 year old RB, but as a late round flyer, sure.

He WOULD be in his athletic prime, if he was actually able to run and train the past FIVE years

 

[ghostguy123]

There are plenty of QB's that can deliver it in this range. It all depends on which situation he goes to, and I agree I'd be slightly more cautious until I knew. Indy, NE, PIT, WAS, SEA, DET, all have QB's that can get him the ball, someone opposite him to take enough attention away, and coaches/systems that will air it out enough for 2 WR's to sustain viability as fantasy plays. It's all about where he goes (or stays).

There is no situation better than where he is now, and only a few that would keep his value close to where it is now.

If he goes ANYWHERE as a #1 WR, his value tanks IMO. He is never covered by a teams top corner.

 

[EBF]

We've always agreed on Stewart's talent -- we just disagree on the likelihood of the situation changing in the next few years.

I just find it amusing that Stewart is "only 27" while CJ Spiller and countless other dudes you don't like have been "already 25 / 26."

All about the price. You give me Spiller in the 13th round and I'll be doing cartwheels.

Can't compare a guy with a 150+ ADP with a guy who will set you back a top 30-40 pick. Totally different universe.

I believe in buying players who are undervalued. That usually means buying unproven players who are available because people haven't yet realized how good they are and buying proven players who have become afterthoughts after years of adversity even though they may have some tread left on the tire. Every year brings a few of these reclamation projects like Ryan Mathews, Ricky Williams (post-suspensions), Randy Moss (post-Oakland), Marshawn Lynch (post-Buffalo), and Joey Galloway. This year I've got guys like Toby Gerhart, Jonathan Stewart, and Santonio Holmes on the shopping list. All have shown flashes of rare talent in the past. All are available for virtually nothing.

Wouldn't Wilson be one of those reclamation/undervalued projects? Except 22 not 27 and with 1 year vs the 5 years of disappointment

Yeah, he fits the mold of a potential high reward/low cost player.

The difference between him and Stewart/Holmes is that there's no mystery with those guys. They've already proven that when healthy, motivated, and flush with opportunity, they can produce solid FF stats. With Wilson you are taking a leap of faith that he can actually play in the NFL because he hasn't really shown it yet. Same with Toby to some extent, although I like him more as a runner than Wilson and thus rank him higher.

 

[maxhyde]

We've always agreed on Stewart's talent -- we just disagree on the likelihood of the situation changing in the next few years.

I just find it amusing that Stewart is "only 27" while CJ Spiller and countless other dudes you don't like have been "already 25 / 26."

All about the price. You give me Spiller in the 13th round and I'll be doing cartwheels.

Can't compare a guy with a 150+ ADP with a guy who will set you back a top 30-40 pick. Totally different universe.

I believe in buying players who are undervalued. That usually means buying unproven players who are available because people haven't yet realized how good they are and buying proven players who have become afterthoughts after years of adversity even though they may have some tread left on the tire. Every year brings a few of these reclamation projects like Ryan Mathews, Ricky Williams (post-suspensions), Randy Moss (post-Oakland), Marshawn Lynch (post-Buffalo), and Joey Galloway. This year I've got guys like Toby Gerhart, Jonathan Stewart, and Santonio Holmes on the shopping list. All have shown flashes of rare talent in the past. All are available for virtually nothing.

Wouldn't Wilson be one of those reclamation/undervalued projects? Except 22 not 27 and with 1 year vs the 5 years of disappointment

Yeah, he fits the mold of a potential high reward/low cost player.

The difference between him and Stewart/Holmes is that there's no mystery with those guys. They've already proven that when healthy, motivated, and flush with opportunity, they can produce solid FF stats. With Wilson you are taking a leap of faith that he can actually play in the NFL because he hasn't really shown it yet. Same with Toby to some extent, although I like him more as a runner than Wilson and thus rank him higher.

So you are targetting DMC?

He has shown he can get it done at a better level than Stewart when healthy and he is younger.

I think only so many of those guys you can have on a roster so pick a few and go for it but I think for the year Stewart has before he is "old" for a RB I might gamble a different direction. He hasn't been able to stay healthy yet so like DMC I am willing to risk he will not stay healthy this year either

 

[EBF]

So you are targetting DMC?

He has shown he can get it done at a better level than Stewart when healthy and he is younger.

I don't agree with that. DMC never had to contend with DeAngelo. I think if you'd given Stewart five years as an unquestioned starter you would've seen a better return than what DMC gave Oakland. Both guys have injury issues, but I like Stew more as a runner and think he's more capable of holding up.

 

[squistion]

will only be 27 next season.

"What is something I never thought I'd hear EBF say about a RB"

 

[maxhyde]

So you are targetting DMC?

He has shown he can get it done at a better level than Stewart when healthy and he is younger.

I don't agree with that. DMC never had to contend with DeAngelo. I think if you'd given Stewart five years as an unquestioned starter you would've seen a better return than what DMC gave Oakland. Both guys have injury issues, but I like Stew more as a runner and think he's more capable of holding up.

So give the injury prone part time RB a bigger load and he will be less injury prone...makes sense

 

[EBF]

So you are targetting DMC?

He has shown he can get it done at a better level than Stewart when healthy and he is younger.

I don't agree with that. DMC never had to contend with DeAngelo. I think if you'd given Stewart five years as an unquestioned starter you would've seen a better return than what DMC gave Oakland. Both guys have injury issues, but I like Stew more as a runner and think he's more capable of holding up.

So give the injury prone part time RB a bigger load and he will be less injury prone...makes sense

Don't think this board really needs another JStew thread, but he played in 62 of 64 possible games his first four seasons in the league. The last two years have been very bad on that front. That might be a sign of things to come or it might not.

I believe in punishing players for opportunities they fumble, but not in punishing them for opportunities they never had. That's the primary difference between DMC and Stewart in my view. DMC had chances to be the man and couldn't do it. Stewart has always had DeAngelo in the mix. There's no way to say what he might have done if he had been handed a starting job on a plate for five years like DMC. It's purely hypothetical. I think he would've done far better. It would've been tough for him to have been worse. We'll never really know though.

The important point is that to me it's like....

DMC - Had lots of chances and couldn't deliver.

Stewart - Didn't really have many chances, thus never had a chance to deliver.

One guy failed through lack of individual merit and one guy failed more through lack of opportunity. That's the key distinction.

Similar story with Toby. The lazy analysis would be to say he's a failure because he hasn't done anything after four years in the league. The more astute analysis would be to say he's a failure because he's never had the opportunity to be a success, so his lack of production to date says virtually nothing about his viability. He might suck. He might be really good. It's hard to tell because he has barely played. That's different from a guy like Mikel Leshoure who was handed the keys for a season and still couldn't own the job. One guy failed because he didn't perform well enough and the other guy failed because he never had an opportunity to play. I'm typically going to be more harsh on the guys who flop with a golden opportunity than the guys who simply haven't been given a real chance yet.

Stewart has had brief windows of time where it looked like Carolina wanted him to step up. He failed at that in late 2012. But for the most part his career has been characterized more by a lack of opportunity than by a lack of performance. Not the case with DMC, who was basically given five full seasons with minimal competition to stake his claim to the Oakland RB job. That failure is far worse than being a partial disappointment in a RBBC with a Pro Bowl caliber back (DeAngelo).

 

[Hankmoody]

There are plenty of QB's that can deliver it in this range. It all depends on which situation he goes to, and I agree I'd be slightly more cautious until I knew. Indy, NE, PIT, WAS, SEA, DET, all have QB's that can get him the ball, someone opposite him to take enough attention away, and coaches/systems that will air it out enough for 2 WR's to sustain viability as fantasy plays. It's all about where he goes (or stays).

There is no situation better than where he is now, and only a few that would keep his value close to where it is now.

If he goes ANYWHERE as a #1 WR, his value tanks IMO. He is never covered by a teams top corner.

I don't disagree that staying in Denver would be great for his fantasy outlook, maybe even the best. But it's hardly a given he takes the huge hit many are concerned about. If you look at the teams I mentioned however, he'd only be a "#1" in Indy, and depending on how Wayne bounces back or Hilton progresses that's even debatable. There are a ton of situations that wouldn't scare me at all. As long as there's someone across from him that can draw plenty of attention, especially if they can also take the top off the D, Decker will be fine. There are a dozen or so situations he could end up flourishing in. As I said, it's all about where he ends up.

 

[ghostguy123]

I don't disagree that staying in Denver would be great for his fantasy outlook, maybe even the best. But it's hardly a given he takes the huge hit many are concerned about. If you look at the teams I mentioned however, he'd only be a "#1" in Indy, and depending on how Wayne bounces back or Hilton progresses that's even debatable. There are a ton of situations that wouldn't scare me at all. As long as there's someone across from him that can draw plenty of attention, especially if they can also take the top off the D, Decker will be fine. There are a dozen or so situations he could end up flourishing in. As I said, it's all about where he ends up.

I hope people in my league agree with you, because if he leaves I am trading him.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

So you are targetting DMC?

He has shown he can get it done at a better level than Stewart when healthy and he is younger.

I don't agree with that. DMC never had to contend with DeAngelo. I think if you'd given Stewart five years as an unquestioned starter you would've seen a better return than what DMC gave Oakland. Both guys have injury issues, but I like Stew more as a runner and think he's more capable of holding up.

So give the injury prone part time RB a bigger load and he will be less injury prone...makes sense

Don't think this board really needs another JStew thread, but he played in 62 of 64 possible games his first four seasons in the league. The last two years have been very bad on that front. That might be a sign of things to come or it might not.

I believe in punishing players for opportunities they fumble, but not in punishing them for opportunities they never had. That's the primary difference between DMC and Stewart in my view. DMC had chances to be the man and couldn't do it. Stewart has always had DeAngelo in the mix. There's no way to say what he might have done if he had been handed a starting job on a plate for five years like DMC. It's purely hypothetical. I think he would've done far better. It would've been tough for him to have been worse. We'll never really know though.

The important point is that to me it's like....

DMC - Had lots of chances and couldn't deliver.

Stewart - Didn't really have many chances, thus never had a chance to deliver.

One guy failed through lack of individual merit and one guy failed more through lack of opportunity. That's the key distinction.

Similar story with Toby. The lazy analysis would be to say he's a failure because he hasn't done anything after four years in the league. The more astute analysis would be to say he's a failure because he's never had the opportunity to be a success, so his lack of production to date says virtually nothing about his viability. He might suck. He might be really good. It's hard to tell because he has barely played. That's different from a guy like Mikel Leshoure who was handed the keys for a season and still couldn't own the job. One guy failed because he didn't perform well enough and the other guy failed because he never had an opportunity to play. I'm typically going to be more harsh on the guys who flop with a golden opportunity than the guys who simply haven't been given a real chance yet.

Stewart has had brief windows of time where it looked like Carolina wanted him to step up. He failed at that in late 2012. But for the most part his career has been characterized more by a lack of opportunity than by a lack of performance. Not the case with DMC, who was basically given five full seasons with minimal competition to stake his claim to the Oakland RB job. That failure is far worse than being a partial disappointment in a RBBC with a Pro Bowl caliber back (DeAngelo).

both guys are brittle, move along dude, Stew is toast

 

[ghostguy123]

Didn't J-Stew retire? Hmm.

In all seriousness though, yeah he is worth a late round flier. But I would be happy to deal him for some sort of pick of any kind of value

 

[mzkp54]

Gave: Adrien Robinson, 2.4, 3.4

Got: Griff Whalen, 2.2, 2.9

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Gave: Adrien Robinson, 2.4, 3.4

Got: Griff Whalen, 2.2, 2.9

I don't think Robinson ever pans out as a fantasy TE, so I'll take the free pick upgrades.

 

[Hankmoody]

I don't disagree that staying in Denver would be great for his fantasy outlook, maybe even the best. But it's hardly a given he takes the huge hit many are concerned about. If you look at the teams I mentioned however, he'd only be a "#1" in Indy, and depending on how Wayne bounces back or Hilton progresses that's even debatable. There are a ton of situations that wouldn't scare me at all. As long as there's someone across from him that can draw plenty of attention, especially if they can also take the top off the D, Decker will be fine. There are a dozen or so situations he could end up flourishing in. As I said, it's all about where he ends up.

I hope people in my league agree with you, because if he leaves I am trading him.

And I hope people in my league agree with you, because if someone's bailing on him I'm buying.

 

[ghostguy123]

And I hope people in my league agree with you, because if someone's bailing on him I'm buying.

Oh, I am definitely not "bailing" on Decker. I am simply hoping someone values him about where he will be if he stays in Denver and dealing him to that person.

he will still have decent value elsewhere, but I wouldnt expect much more than a 215 point here or so PPR. While decent, not the top 10 he could easily put up otherwise.

 

[FFDude23]

10 team ppr start 10: 1 QB, 2-4 RB, 3-5 WR, 1-3 TE, D/ST

Forte + 2.04 rookie

for

CMike + 1.06 rookie

 

[maxhyde]

10 team ppr start 10: 1 QB, 2-4 RB, 3-5 WR, 1-3 TE, D/ST

Forte + 2.04 rookie

for

CMike + 1.06 rookie

Ouch!

 

[One More Rep]

10 team ppr start 10: 1 QB, 2-4 RB, 3-5 WR, 1-3 TE, D/ST

Forte + 2.04 rookie

for

CMike + 1.06 rookie

Forte. Even if this is a rebuild shouldn't have to add the 2.4

 

[Hankmoody]

And I hope people in my league agree with you, because if someone's bailing on him I'm buying.

Oh, I am definitely not "bailing" on Decker. I am simply hoping someone values him about where he will be if he stays in Denver and dealing him to that person.

he will still have decent value elsewhere, but I wouldnt expect much more than a 215 point here or so PPR. While decent, not the top 10 he could easily put up otherwise.

And that's exactly what I'm saying. Him going to another team doesn't mean he's "severely" overvalued now or that he'll "tank" as you said. As the #2 WR on a high-power offense, if he went from Denver to another high-power offense, he can again post #2 numbers. Put him across from DJax in Philly and I'll take the over on 80/1100/11 (assuming I end up trusting Foles as the real thing). You think he's ever going to be doubled across from Calvin Johnson? And yeah, that's an offense that is just dying for a guy to come in and post 80/1200/10 in the #2. Seattle with a healthy Harvin (might be wishing for too much) or Garcon drawing all kinds of attention - I see a number of situations where Decker can thrive. And what is a team like MIN or CLE lucks into a QB in this draft? Jax hitting the perfecta of finding a not-terrible QB and Blackmon getting his head out of his own chute in the same off-season?

I'll admit that Decker's strong finish was even stronger than I realized, he's #9 in my homer league, and that I was aiming a tad lower when slotting him. Heck even if he stays in Denver I'd take the under on him finishing top 10 again though. Solid #2 WR, not a reach at all.

 

[cstu]

10 team ppr start 10: 1 QB, 2-4 RB, 3-5 WR, 1-3 TE, D/ST

Forte + 2.04 rookie

for

CMike + 1.06 rookie

Really?

 

[EBF]

10 team ppr start 10: 1 QB, 2-4 RB, 3-5 WR, 1-3 TE, D/ST

Forte + 2.04 rookie

for

CMike + 1.06 rookie

Ouch!

Which side is the ouch?

I actually love the CMike side there.

Might take the 1.06 over Forte straight up. Six years of starter carries is a lot of tread off the tire for a RB. He probably has 1-2 peak years left. Then maybe 1-2 years as a moderately useful fringe player ala LT in New York or Emmitt in Zona. I could see an argument for him in a start 2RB league if you're an immediate contender, but pretty confident that the long term value favors the other side there.

 

[maxhyde]

10 team ppr start 10: 1 QB, 2-4 RB, 3-5 WR, 1-3 TE, D/ST

Forte + 2.04 rookie

for

CMike + 1.06 rookie

Ouch!

Which side is the ouch?

I actually love the CMike side there.

Might take the 1.06 over Forte straight up. Six years of starter carries is a lot of tread off the tire for a RB. He probably has 1-2 peak years left. Then maybe 1-2 years as a moderately useful fringe player ala LT in New York or Emmitt in Zona. I could see an argument for him in a start 2RB league if you're an immediate contender, but pretty confident that the long term value favors the other side there.

I would have just offered JStew for Forte if I was dealing with you though

In a 10 team PPR it is possible neither 1.06 and CMike never actually start for you...ever. I mean you likely have to wait another year for both those pieces to do much.

Meantime Forte scores another 200+ points for me and I can still deal him for a slightly worse offer than this before the trade deadline next year. Or run him until he is done and hope to draft my replacement over those 2-4 years you give him

 

[EBF]

I would have just offered JStew for Forte if I was dealing with you though

In a 10 team PPR it is possible neither 1.06 and CMike never actually start for you...ever.

Likewise, it's also possible that they're both starting for you and scoring good points within a year or two. If you can't wait a year for a player, you probably shouldn't be joining a dynasty league. I think either Forte for the 1.06 or Forte for Michael would be pretty close, so getting both seems like a clear win.

People always talk about overvaluing youth and picks, but it's also possible to undervalue them. I think if you're looking to unload an expiring star like Forte, this is exactly the kind of deal you should be praying you can make. Very good exit value for a guy who probably doesn't have more than 1-2 peak years in him.

 

[maxhyde]

I would have just offered JStew for Forte if I was dealing with you though

In a 10 team PPR it is possible neither 1.06 and CMike never actually start for you...ever.

Likewise, it's also possible that they're both starting for you and scoring good points within a year or two. If you can't wait a year for a player, you probably shouldn't be joining a dynasty league. I think either Forte for the 1.06 or Forte for Michael would be pretty close, so getting both seems like a clear win.

People always talk about overvaluing youth and picks, but it's also possible to undervalue them. I think if you're looking to unload an expiring star like Forte, this is exactly the kind of deal you should be praying you can make. Very good exit value for a guy who probably doesn't have more than 1-2 peak years in him.

I guess if it works for you that's great. Like everyone else I have deals I should have made and deals I shouldn't have made

I just don't think I am selling a guy that scored 20PPG for a mid-1st and a late 1st from last year that was inactive most of the season. It isn't like you are getting a top3 pick and a can't miss prospect. Getting a talented RB with character and injury concerns and a mid 1st. For reference Charles/Shady/Gordon this is the rest of the list of nonQBs that avg'd 20pts a game playing more than 10 games

I will keep trotting Forte and his 15-20pts a game out there until I get a deal I like or he stops being useful. Patience works both ways