*** OFFICIAL *** 13/14 Off-Season Dynasty Trade Thread (1 Viewer)

[bengalbuck]

I would have just offered JStew for Forte if I was dealing with you though

In a 10 team PPR it is possible neither 1.06 and CMike never actually start for you...ever.

Likewise, it's also possible that they're both starting for you and scoring good points within a year or two. If you can't wait a year for a player, you probably shouldn't be joining a dynasty league. I think either Forte for the 1.06 or Forte for Michael would be pretty close, so getting both seems like a clear win.

People always talk about overvaluing youth and picks, but it's also possible to undervalue them. I think if you're looking to unload an expiring star like Forte, this is exactly the kind of deal you should be praying you can make. Very good exit value for a guy who probably doesn't have more than 1-2 peak years in him.

I guess if it works for you that's great. Like everyone else I have deals I should have made and deals I shouldn't have made

I just don't think I am selling a guy that scored 20PPG for a mid-1st and a late 1st from last year that was inactive most of the season. It isn't like you are getting a top3 pick and a can't miss prospect. Getting a talented RB with character and injury concerns and a mid 1st. For reference Charles/Shady/Gordon this is the rest of the list of nonQBs that avg'd 20pts a game playing more than 10 games

I will keep trotting Forte and his 15-20pts a game out there until I get a deal I like or he stops being useful. Patience works both ways

I think in general I am in favor of trading a guy for value if you can before he falls off the cliff. I was able to get a late 1st for SJax last April and jumped on it for example.

But I personally think that Forte is too valuable to sell for such speculative and mediocre a return. We are talking about a guy who is likely a top 5 pick in redraft this fall. And it is not at all far fetched to assume he ages somewhat gracefully and is productive in 2015 as well. I would have to get more than a 1 round trade up and a guy like Michael (who I don't particularly love in PPR anyway).

On a related note:

12 Team PPR

Wes Welker

for

Rookie 2.08 and 3.08

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Gave: Adrien Robinson, 2.4, 3.4

Got: Griff Whalen, 2.2, 2.9

I don't think Robinson ever pans out as a fantasy TE, so I'll take the free pick upgrades.

This trade to me looks like someone traded picks 2.2 and 2.9 for 2.4 and 3.4 - I dont see Robinson or Griffen being anything more that end of roster players. Robinson wasn't even productive in college and has not shown anything in the pros, despite being on a team that made slugs like Jake Ballard and Kevin Boss useful players.

ETA: Swapping those picks is not really all that big of a deal though if some one does beleive in Robinson.

 

[ghostguy123]

10 team ppr start 10: 1 QB, 2-4 RB, 3-5 WR, 1-3 TE, D/ST

Forte + 2.04 rookie

for

CMike + 1.06 rookie

That is just horrible value for Forte.

 

[False Start]

10 team ppr start 10: 1 QB, 2-4 RB, 3-5 WR, 1-3 TE, D/ST

Forte + 2.04 rookie

for

CMike + 1.06 rookie

That is just horrible value for Forte.

Is it me or is Michael so over valued by many, why would someone want him over Forte? Lynch is still the bell cow and Turbin is not something to turn your nose at. I'm just confused by this is all.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

10 team ppr start 10: 1 QB, 2-4 RB, 3-5 WR, 1-3 TE, D/ST

Forte + 2.04 rookie

for

CMike + 1.06 rookie

That is just horrible value for Forte.

Is it me or is Michael so over valued by many, why would someone want him over Forte? Lynch is still the bell cow and Turbin is not something to turn your nose at. I'm just confused by this is all.

I like Michaels, fine, but he has become the overhyped darling of FBGs. Its seems no one was all that high on him come draft time, but after a few big preseason games, the hype train just kept growing.

Guys like Kareem Huggins, Danny Ware and Anthony Dixon have had huge preseasons before.

I don' think this was a terrible trade since the guy getting Michaels also got the 1.06 - but the guy gettingg Forte (and the 2.04 which some seem to be ignoring) will likely not be very disappointed for for the next 2-3 years and how far do we want to look ahead?

 

[Mingooch]

I think Forte is worth more as well. I traded him and B Petigrew TE mid season last year and got Gio Bernard, Crabtree, and a pick that ended up being 1.6

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

10 team ppr start 10: 1 QB, 2-4 RB, 3-5 WR, 1-3 TE, D/ST

Forte + 2.04 rookie

for

CMike + 1.06 rookie

Ouch!

Which side is the ouch?

I actually love the CMike side there.

Might take the 1.06 over Forte straight up. Six years of starter carries is a lot of tread off the tire for a RB. He probably has 1-2 peak years left. Then maybe 1-2 years as a moderately useful fringe player ala LT in New York or Emmitt in Zona. I could see an argument for him in a start 2RB league if you're an immediate contender, but pretty confident that the long term value favors the other side there.

you would but your a Forte hater, and a CM slappy.

Gimme Forte all day

 

[Coeur de Lion]

10 team ppr start 10: 1 QB, 2-4 RB, 3-5 WR, 1-3 TE, D/ST

Forte + 2.04 rookie

for

CMike + 1.06 rookie

That is just horrible value for Forte.

Is it me or is Michael so over valued by many, why would someone want him over Forte? Lynch is still the bell cow and Turbin is not something to turn your nose at. I'm just confused by this is all.

I like Michaels, fine, but he has become the overhyped darling of FBGs. Its seems no one was all that high on him come draft time, but after a few big preseason games, the hype train just kept growing.

Guys like Kareem Huggins, Danny Ware and Anthony Dixon have had huge preseasons before.

I don' think this was a terrible trade since the guy getting Michaels also got the 1.06 - but the guy gettingg Forte (and the 2.04 which some seem to be ignoring) will likely not be very disappointed for for the next 2-3 years and how far do we want to look ahead?

Agreed. Somehow in the course of a season where he didn't do anything of note, Michael has moved from "late 2nd round NFL RB" to "sure fire future stud" -- at the prices he's commanding he's a definite sell. Let someone else absorb the risk.Shiny new toy syndrome at its finest. Michael is the same as David Wilson last year, only with less immediacy in finding out what you actually have.

 

[ghostguy123]

I think Forte is worth more as well. I traded him and B Petigrew TE mid season last year and got Gio Bernard, Crabtree, and a pick that ended up being 1.6

Well to he fair, that guy definitely overpaid.

 

[JohnnyU]

Those posting he should have gotten more are a bunch of Forte owners wishing they can unload him and are hoping to drive up his value, but can't really do it for his true "dynasty" value, and I emphasize dynasty. I don't think he's ready to fall off the cliff yet, but his car is parked beside it.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

10 team ppr start 10: 1 QB, 2-4 RB, 3-5 WR, 1-3 TE, D/ST

Forte + 2.04 rookie

for

CMike + 1.06 rookie

That is just horrible value for Forte.

Is it me or is Michael so over valued by many, why would someone want him over Forte? Lynch is still the bell cow and Turbin is not something to turn your nose at. I'm just confused by this is all.

I like Michaels, fine, but he has become the overhyped darling of FBGs. Its seems no one was all that high on him come draft time, but after a few big preseason games, the hype train just kept growing.

Guys like Kareem Huggins, Danny Ware and Anthony Dixon have had huge preseasons before.

I don' think this was a terrible trade since the guy getting Michaels also got the 1.06 - but the guy gettingg Forte (and the 2.04 which some seem to be ignoring) will likely not be very disappointed for for the next 2-3 years and how far do we want to look ahead?

Agreed. Somehow in the course of a season where he didn't do anything of note, Michael has moved from "late 2nd round NFL RB" to "sure fire future stud" -- at the prices he's commanding he's a definite sell. Let someone else absorb the risk.Shiny new toy syndrome at its finest. Michael is the same as David Wilson last year, only with less immediacy in finding out what you actually have.

It's really kind of remarkable - his value has grown for no other reason (as you said he was inactive for most weeks) than:

1. Marshawn Lynch has grown one year older.

2. Pure hype, with people's eyes growing wide due to all that talk about him.

I actually liked him pre-NFL draft, and still so - but as you said, there has been absolutely no reason for his value to have shot up as much as it has. He may turn out to be a great back, not saying that he will not, but people are valueing him as if its a given. At this rate you're paying for the upside already making him a poor value.

 

[False Start]

Those posting he should have gotten more are a bunch of Forte owners wishing they can unload him and are hoping to drive up his value, but can't really do it for his true "dynasty" value, and I emphasize dynasty. I don't think he's ready to fall off the cliff yet, but his car is parked beside it.

Just had his best season ever but he is parked beside a cliff? Trade a guy who just had his best season for a #3 RB who had a good preseason? Am I seeing this right? I do not own Forte in any league but wish I did. I have no interest in acquiring a #3 RB who just has upside sitting behind an elite for an elite. Seems counter productive to your team. People bail on players way too early from what I gather here at Footballguys.

 

[JohnnyU]

Those posting he should have gotten more are a bunch of Forte owners wishing they can unload him and are hoping to drive up his value, but can't really do it for his true "dynasty" value, and I emphasize dynasty. I don't think he's ready to fall off the cliff yet, but his car is parked beside it.

Just had his best season ever but he is parked beside a cliff? Trade a guy who just had his best season for a #3 RB who had a good preseason? Am I seeing this right? I do not own Forte in any league but wish I did. I have no interest in acquiring a #3 RB who just has upside sitting behind an elite for an elite. Seems counter productive to your team. People bail on players way too early from what I gather here at Footballguys.

Look, in dynasty it's all about trading a guy at the right time and it's better to be a year too early than a year too late. He's 28 years old and will be 29 toward the end of next season, so the potential for a quick regression is there whether you want to believe it or not. Now if you're talking redraft, I agree with you 100%, but in a dynasty league, I don't think he did as bad with that trade as some of you guys are saying.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Those posting he should have gotten more are a bunch of Forte owners wishing they can unload him and are hoping to drive up his value, but can't really do it for his true "dynasty" value, and I emphasize dynasty.

Eh, maybe -- the youth obsessed dynasty community treats guys like Forte as if they have the plague. But there's no reason that anyone HAS to trade guys like that -- just ride em into the sunset. Forte probably roughly 3 years left of useful shelf life -- I have been playing dynasty for almost 20 years, and I have NEVER written off three years in a row, so that mindset is pretty foreign to me.

Finally, if nothing else, right now is a terrible time to trade off Matt Forte. In season either last year or next as people making title pushes bid against each other is hugely likely to bring in much better value. The guy is a very safe bet to be churning out difference making production again next year -- and we've all seen huge windfalls come from that kind of "kingmaker" trade late in the season.

 

[False Start]

Those posting he should have gotten more are a bunch of Forte owners wishing they can unload him and are hoping to drive up his value, but can't really do it for his true "dynasty" value, and I emphasize dynasty. I don't think he's ready to fall off the cliff yet, but his car is parked beside it.

Just had his best season ever but he is parked beside a cliff? Trade a guy who just had his best season for a #3 RB who had a good preseason? Am I seeing this right? I do not own Forte in any league but wish I did. I have no interest in acquiring a #3 RB who just has upside sitting behind an elite for an elite. Seems counter productive to your team. People bail on players way too early from what I gather here at Footballguys.

Look, in dynasty it's all about trading a guy at the right time and it's better to be a year too early than a year too late. He's 28 years old and will be 29 toward the end of next season, so the potential for a quick regression is there whether you want to believe it or not. Now if you're talking redraft, I agree with you 100%, but in a dynasty league, I don't think he did as bad with that trade as some of you guys are saying.

No, in Dynasty its about winning titles just like any fantasy league. Trading away a cornerstone for an up and coming (maybe) piece does not help with that.

FBG hype and non hype adjusts everything. Some of the people with opinions and no qualifications are on here giving their views. I love this site but the Mob mentality is pretty big here. if everyone does it I have to too. If everyone thinks Michael is great, he must be. He even has a nickname (CMike, I agree with the guy above, really?) as if he is important and has done absolutely nothing to earn it but ride the bench.

 

[maxhyde]

Those posting he should have gotten more are a bunch of Forte owners wishing they can unload him and are hoping to drive up his value, but can't really do it for his true "dynasty" value, and I emphasize dynasty. I don't think he's ready to fall off the cliff yet, but his car is parked beside it.

Just had his best season ever but he is parked beside a cliff? Trade a guy who just had his best season for a #3 RB who had a good preseason? Am I seeing this right? I do not own Forte in any league but wish I did. I have no interest in acquiring a #3 RB who just has upside sitting behind an elite for an elite. Seems counter productive to your team. People bail on players way too early from what I gather here at Footballguys.

Look, in dynasty it's all about trading a guy at the right time and it's better to be a year too early than a year too late. He's 28 years old and will be 29 toward the end of next season, so the potential for a quick regression is there whether you want to believe it or not. Now if you're talking redraft, I agree with you 100%, but in a dynasty league, I don't think he did as bad with that trade as some of you guys are saying.

No argument there. But trading a "year too early" in February for a deal that is only good if you think CMichaels is the next sure RB1 in SEA. It would also seem it is already a year too late. Charles would never be sold for anywhere close to this and he is one year younger

You don't have much of a dynasty if you keep trading down to hit on the next great thing...right now that's a long way down for youth. I try to win in dynasty (and redraft) so I would rather not purge guys because I am worried I will be left holding the bag on them. You win some and you lose some. I can't imagine you will get any less for Forte in October when a couple RB's get hurt or start slow

 

[JohnnyU]

Those posting he should have gotten more are a bunch of Forte owners wishing they can unload him and are hoping to drive up his value, but can't really do it for his true "dynasty" value, and I emphasize dynasty.

Eh, maybe -- the youth obsessed dynasty community treats guys like Forte as if they have the plague. But there's no reason that anyone HAS to trade guys like that -- just ride em into the sunset. Forte probably roughly 3 years left of useful shelf life -- I have been playing dynasty for almost 20 years, and I have NEVER written off three years in a row, so that mindset is pretty foreign to me.

Finally, if nothing else, right now is a terrible time to trade off Matt Forte. In season either last year or next as people making title pushes bid against each other is hugely likely to bring in much better value. The guy is a very safe bet to be churning out difference making production again next year -- and we've all seen huge windfalls come from that kind of "kingmaker" trade late in the season.

Using the words "terrible time to trade" and "youth obsessed dynasty community" are a little over generalizing. I never said anyone "HAS to trade guys like that", I said the guy who traded him didn't necessarily get as bad of a deal as some of you are saying. When you say, "right now is a terrible time to trade Matt Forte", that is waaay over generalizing, because in dynasty leagues it's all about team make up. If you have a team that isn't going to compete, then it's probably in your best interest to trade players like Forte before they start to go downhill, and like I said earlier, it's better to trade a player a year early than a year late. If your team is a title contender, then by all means hang on to Forte and ride him into the sunset. I hope that is a little more clear for you.

 

[JohnnyU]

Those posting he should have gotten more are a bunch of Forte owners wishing they can unload him and are hoping to drive up his value, but can't really do it for his true "dynasty" value, and I emphasize dynasty. I don't think he's ready to fall off the cliff yet, but his car is parked beside it.

Just had his best season ever but he is parked beside a cliff? Trade a guy who just had his best season for a #3 RB who had a good preseason? Am I seeing this right? I do not own Forte in any league but wish I did. I have no interest in acquiring a #3 RB who just has upside sitting behind an elite for an elite. Seems counter productive to your team. People bail on players way too early from what I gather here at Footballguys.

Look, in dynasty it's all about trading a guy at the right time and it's better to be a year too early than a year too late. He's 28 years old and will be 29 toward the end of next season, so the potential for a quick regression is there whether you want to believe it or not. Now if you're talking redraft, I agree with you 100%, but in a dynasty league, I don't think he did as bad with that trade as some of you guys are saying.

No argument there. But trading a "year too early" in February for a deal that is only good if you think CMichaels is the next sure RB1 in SEA. It would also seem it is already a year too late. Charles would never be sold for anywhere close to this and he is one year younger

You don't have much of a dynasty if you keep trading down to hit on the next great thing...right now that's a long way down for youth. I try to win in dynasty (and redraft) so I would rather not purge guys because I am worried I will be left holding the bag on them. You win some and you lose some. I can't imagine you will get any less for Forte in October when a couple RB's get hurt or start slow

You act as if the 1.6 is garbage and those with the redraft mentality probably think the same way. Yes, I think Michael will be a good back eventually, but there was more to that deal than Michael.

 

[False Start]

Those posting he should have gotten more are a bunch of Forte owners wishing they can unload him and are hoping to drive up his value, but can't really do it for his true "dynasty" value, and I emphasize dynasty. I don't think he's ready to fall off the cliff yet, but his car is parked beside it.

Just had his best season ever but he is parked beside a cliff? Trade a guy who just had his best season for a #3 RB who had a good preseason? Am I seeing this right? I do not own Forte in any league but wish I did. I have no interest in acquiring a #3 RB who just has upside sitting behind an elite for an elite. Seems counter productive to your team. People bail on players way too early from what I gather here at Footballguys.

Look, in dynasty it's all about trading a guy at the right time and it's better to be a year too early than a year too late. He's 28 years old and will be 29 toward the end of next season, so the potential for a quick regression is there whether you want to believe it or not. Now if you're talking redraft, I agree with you 100%, but in a dynasty league, I don't think he did as bad with that trade as some of you guys are saying.

No argument there. But trading a "year too early" in February for a deal that is only good if you think CMichaels is the next sure RB1 in SEA. It would also seem it is already a year too late. Charles would never be sold for anywhere close to this and he is one year younger

You don't have much of a dynasty if you keep trading down to hit on the next great thing...right now that's a long way down for youth. I try to win in dynasty (and redraft) so I would rather not purge guys because I am worried I will be left holding the bag on them. You win some and you lose some. I can't imagine you will get any less for Forte in October when a couple RB's get hurt or start slow

You act as if the 1.6 is garbage and those with the redraft mentality probably think the same way. Yes, I think Michael will be a good back eventually, but there was more to that deal than Michael.

Yes he gave up 2.4 for the swap, it wasn't like Forte for Michael and 1.6. So in your point to contradict yourself. I feel pick 6 this year is the same as pick 12 because the the draft is so deep.

 

[JohnnyU]

Those posting he should have gotten more are a bunch of Forte owners wishing they can unload him and are hoping to drive up his value, but can't really do it for his true "dynasty" value, and I emphasize dynasty. I don't think he's ready to fall off the cliff yet, but his car is parked beside it.

Just had his best season ever but he is parked beside a cliff? Trade a guy who just had his best season for a #3 RB who had a good preseason? Am I seeing this right? I do not own Forte in any league but wish I did. I have no interest in acquiring a #3 RB who just has upside sitting behind an elite for an elite. Seems counter productive to your team. People bail on players way too early from what I gather here at Footballguys.

Look, in dynasty it's all about trading a guy at the right time and it's better to be a year too early than a year too late. He's 28 years old and will be 29 toward the end of next season, so the potential for a quick regression is there whether you want to believe it or not. Now if you're talking redraft, I agree with you 100%, but in a dynasty league, I don't think he did as bad with that trade as some of you guys are saying.

No argument there. But trading a "year too early" in February for a deal that is only good if you think CMichaels is the next sure RB1 in SEA. It would also seem it is already a year too late. Charles would never be sold for anywhere close to this and he is one year younger

You don't have much of a dynasty if you keep trading down to hit on the next great thing...right now that's a long way down for youth. I try to win in dynasty (and redraft) so I would rather not purge guys because I am worried I will be left holding the bag on them. You win some and you lose some. I can't imagine you will get any less for Forte in October when a couple RB's get hurt or start slow

You act as if the 1.6 is garbage and those with the redraft mentality probably think the same way. Yes, I think Michael will be a good back eventually, but there was more to that deal than Michael.

Yes he gave up 2.4 for the swap, it wasn't like Forte for Michael and 1.6. So in your point to contradict yourself. I feel pick 6 this year is the same as pick 12 because the the draft is so deep.

Big difference in value between 1.6 and 2.4.

 

[False Start]

Those posting he should have gotten more are a bunch of Forte owners wishing they can unload him and are hoping to drive up his value, but can't really do it for his true "dynasty" value, and I emphasize dynasty. I don't think he's ready to fall off the cliff yet, but his car is parked beside it.

Just had his best season ever but he is parked beside a cliff? Trade a guy who just had his best season for a #3 RB who had a good preseason? Am I seeing this right? I do not own Forte in any league but wish I did. I have no interest in acquiring a #3 RB who just has upside sitting behind an elite for an elite. Seems counter productive to your team. People bail on players way too early from what I gather here at Footballguys.

Look, in dynasty it's all about trading a guy at the right time and it's better to be a year too early than a year too late. He's 28 years old and will be 29 toward the end of next season, so the potential for a quick regression is there whether you want to believe it or not. Now if you're talking redraft, I agree with you 100%, but in a dynasty league, I don't think he did as bad with that trade as some of you guys are saying.

No argument there. But trading a "year too early" in February for a deal that is only good if you think CMichaels is the next sure RB1 in SEA. It would also seem it is already a year too late. Charles would never be sold for anywhere close to this and he is one year younger

You don't have much of a dynasty if you keep trading down to hit on the next great thing...right now that's a long way down for youth. I try to win in dynasty (and redraft) so I would rather not purge guys because I am worried I will be left holding the bag on them. You win some and you lose some. I can't imagine you will get any less for Forte in October when a couple RB's get hurt or start slow

You act as if the 1.6 is garbage and those with the redraft mentality probably think the same way. Yes, I think Michael will be a good back eventually, but there was more to that deal than Michael.

Yes he gave up 2.4 for the swap, it wasn't like Forte for Michael and 1.6. So in your point to contradict yourself. I feel pick 6 this year is the same as pick 12 because the the draft is so deep.

Big difference in value between 1.6 and 2.4.

Much bigger difference between Forte and Michael, you also missed the key point where I said I feel pick 6 is not much better then pick 12 in this deep draft. so four picks later still can net you great talent.

 

[JohnnyU]

Those posting he should have gotten more are a bunch of Forte owners wishing they can unload him and are hoping to drive up his value, but can't really do it for his true "dynasty" value, and I emphasize dynasty. I don't think he's ready to fall off the cliff yet, but his car is parked beside it.

Just had his best season ever but he is parked beside a cliff? Trade a guy who just had his best season for a #3 RB who had a good preseason? Am I seeing this right? I do not own Forte in any league but wish I did. I have no interest in acquiring a #3 RB who just has upside sitting behind an elite for an elite. Seems counter productive to your team. People bail on players way too early from what I gather here at Footballguys.

Look, in dynasty it's all about trading a guy at the right time and it's better to be a year too early than a year too late. He's 28 years old and will be 29 toward the end of next season, so the potential for a quick regression is there whether you want to believe it or not. Now if you're talking redraft, I agree with you 100%, but in a dynasty league, I don't think he did as bad with that trade as some of you guys are saying.

No argument there. But trading a "year too early" in February for a deal that is only good if you think CMichaels is the next sure RB1 in SEA. It would also seem it is already a year too late. Charles would never be sold for anywhere close to this and he is one year younger

You don't have much of a dynasty if you keep trading down to hit on the next great thing...right now that's a long way down for youth. I try to win in dynasty (and redraft) so I would rather not purge guys because I am worried I will be left holding the bag on them. You win some and you lose some. I can't imagine you will get any less for Forte in October when a couple RB's get hurt or start slow

You act as if the 1.6 is garbage and those with the redraft mentality probably think the same way. Yes, I think Michael will be a good back eventually, but there was more to that deal than Michael.

Yes he gave up 2.4 for the swap, it wasn't like Forte for Michael and 1.6. So in your point to contradict yourself. I feel pick 6 this year is the same as pick 12 because the the draft is so deep.

Big difference in value between 1.6 and 2.4.

Much bigger difference between Forte and Michael, you also missed the key point where I said I feel pick 6 is not much better then pick 12 in this deep draft. so four picks later still can net you great talent.

I feel you are wrong about the difference between 1.6 and 1.12, let alone the 1.6 and 2.4, so we will agree to disagree. Also, within 3 years, possibly 2, or even 1 year, Michael will have a lot more value than Forte.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Finally, if nothing else, right now is a terrible time to trade off Matt Forte. In season either last year or next as people making title pushes bid against each other is hugely likely to bring in much better value. The guy is a very safe bet to be churning out difference making production again next year -- and we've all seen huge windfalls come from that kind of "kingmaker" trade late in the season.

In general that's sound advice. However you have to acknowledge the risk. There's no guarantee any RB is playing in week 10 or whenever the desire for a late season push sets in. People who waited to trade Foster last year lost out. Forte is at an age that any injury depletes his value.

 

[False Start]

Those posting he should have gotten more are a bunch of Forte owners wishing they can unload him and are hoping to drive up his value, but can't really do it for his true "dynasty" value, and I emphasize dynasty. I don't think he's ready to fall off the cliff yet, but his car is parked beside it.

Just had his best season ever but he is parked beside a cliff? Trade a guy who just had his best season for a #3 RB who had a good preseason? Am I seeing this right? I do not own Forte in any league but wish I did. I have no interest in acquiring a #3 RB who just has upside sitting behind an elite for an elite. Seems counter productive to your team. People bail on players way too early from what I gather here at Footballguys.

Look, in dynasty it's all about trading a guy at the right time and it's better to be a year too early than a year too late. He's 28 years old and will be 29 toward the end of next season, so the potential for a quick regression is there whether you want to believe it or not. Now if you're talking redraft, I agree with you 100%, but in a dynasty league, I don't think he did as bad with that trade as some of you guys are saying.

No argument there. But trading a "year too early" in February for a deal that is only good if you think CMichaels is the next sure RB1 in SEA. It would also seem it is already a year too late. Charles would never be sold for anywhere close to this and he is one year younger

You don't have much of a dynasty if you keep trading down to hit on the next great thing...right now that's a long way down for youth. I try to win in dynasty (and redraft) so I would rather not purge guys because I am worried I will be left holding the bag on them. You win some and you lose some. I can't imagine you will get any less for Forte in October when a couple RB's get hurt or start slow

You act as if the 1.6 is garbage and those with the redraft mentality probably think the same way. Yes, I think Michael will be a good back eventually, but there was more to that deal than Michael.

Yes he gave up 2.4 for the swap, it wasn't like Forte for Michael and 1.6. So in your point to contradict yourself. I feel pick 6 this year is the same as pick 12 because the the draft is so deep.

Big difference in value between 1.6 and 2.4.

Much bigger difference between Forte and Michael, you also missed the key point where I said I feel pick 6 is not much better then pick 12 in this deep draft. so four picks later still can net you great talent.

I feel you are wrong about the difference between 1.6 and 1.12, let alone the 1.6 and 2.4, so we will agree to disagree. Also, within 3 years, possibly 2, Michael will have a lot more value than Forte.

Well you can disagree but all the pundits are all over the place. Some have players in the top 5 others don't have in the top 10. As far as the future, do the titles between now and then matter any less while you are waiting? What is your proof that he will be so much more valuable anyways, all the great games he had this past year or just the hype some are putting around an unproven player who was inactive most the season?

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Those posting he should have gotten more are a bunch of Forte owners wishing they can unload him and are hoping to drive up his value, but can't really do it for his true "dynasty" value, and I emphasize dynasty.

Eh, maybe -- the youth obsessed dynasty community treats guys like Forte as if they have the plague. But there's no reason that anyone HAS to trade guys like that -- just ride em into the sunset. Forte probably roughly 3 years left of useful shelf life -- I have been playing dynasty for almost 20 years, and I have NEVER written off three years in a row, so that mindset is pretty foreign to me.Finally, if nothing else, right now is a terrible time to trade off Matt Forte. In season either last year or next as people making title pushes bid against each other is hugely likely to bring in much better value. The guy is a very safe bet to be churning out difference making production again next year -- and we've all seen huge windfalls come from that kind of "kingmaker" trade late in the season.

Using the words "terrible time to trade" and "youth obsessed dynasty community" are a little over generalizing. I never said anyone "HAS to trade guys like that", I said the guy who traded him didn't necessarily get as bad of a deal as some of you are saying. When you say, "right now is a terrible time to trade Matt Forte", that is waaay over generalizing, because in dynasty leagues it's all about team make up. If you have a team that isn't going to compete, then it's probably in your best interest to trade players like Forte before they start to go downhill, and like I said earlier, it's better to trade a player a year early than a year late. If your team is a title contender, then by all means hang on to Forte and ride him into the sunset. I hope that is a little more clear for you.

No, you were pretty clear the first time, and we've both been posting here for well over a decade -- I've got a pretty good feel for your mindset in FF. I just disagree completely. Even if your team sucks, Forte just turned 28 in December, and put up monster numbers in 2013. He's not Steven Jackson or Frank Gore. His value isn't moving at all, barring injury of course, this offseason. Cashing out right now for a mid-1st and flavor of the week / month / year project Michael is terrible. If you are dead set on moving him, in season is a very safe bet to bring a ton more value with teams in contention losing RBs etc. There's essentially no risk in waiting a bit -- unless you are much better at predicting an injury than I am. Neither Michael's not Forte's actual value is in any way volatile this offseason, or in the first half of next year. But the market value of a guy who will likely be putting up stud #s could significantly go up if things break right among contending teams next year. And if not, in sure you can still cash out for mid and late 1sts anyway.

 

[thriftyrocker]

flavor of the week / month / year project Michael is terrible.

You're ignoring Michael's value just because you don't like him. If you don't like him he's still top 60 value you can swap for an older WR1 or another older RB (Bush, Rice, Foster).

 

[JohnnyU]

Those posting he should have gotten more are a bunch of Forte owners wishing they can unload him and are hoping to drive up his value, but can't really do it for his true "dynasty" value, and I emphasize dynasty. I don't think he's ready to fall off the cliff yet, but his car is parked beside it.

Just had his best season ever but he is parked beside a cliff? Trade a guy who just had his best season for a #3 RB who had a good preseason? Am I seeing this right? I do not own Forte in any league but wish I did. I have no interest in acquiring a #3 RB who just has upside sitting behind an elite for an elite. Seems counter productive to your team. People bail on players way too early from what I gather here at Footballguys.

Look, in dynasty it's all about trading a guy at the right time and it's better to be a year too early than a year too late. He's 28 years old and will be 29 toward the end of next season, so the potential for a quick regression is there whether you want to believe it or not. Now if you're talking redraft, I agree with you 100%, but in a dynasty league, I don't think he did as bad with that trade as some of you guys are saying.

No argument there. But trading a "year too early" in February for a deal that is only good if you think CMichaels is the next sure RB1 in SEA. It would also seem it is already a year too late. Charles would never be sold for anywhere close to this and he is one year younger

You don't have much of a dynasty if you keep trading down to hit on the next great thing...right now that's a long way down for youth. I try to win in dynasty (and redraft) so I would rather not purge guys because I am worried I will be left holding the bag on them. You win some and you lose some. I can't imagine you will get any less for Forte in October when a couple RB's get hurt or start slow

You act as if the 1.6 is garbage and those with the redraft mentality probably think the same way. Yes, I think Michael will be a good back eventually, but there was more to that deal than Michael.

Yes he gave up 2.4 for the swap, it wasn't like Forte for Michael and 1.6. So in your point to contradict yourself. I feel pick 6 this year is the same as pick 12 because the the draft is so deep.

Big difference in value between 1.6 and 2.4.

Much bigger difference between Forte and Michael, you also missed the key point where I said I feel pick 6 is not much better then pick 12 in this deep draft. so four picks later still can net you great talent.

I feel you are wrong about the difference between 1.6 and 1.12, let alone the 1.6 and 2.4, so we will agree to disagree. Also, within 3 years, possibly 2, Michael will have a lot more value than Forte.

Well you can disagree but all the pundits are all over the place. Some have players in the top 5 others don't have in the top 10. As far as the future, do the titles between now and then matter any less while you are waiting? What is your proof that he will be so much more valuable anyways, all the great games he had this past year or just the hype some are putting around an unproven player who was inactive most the season?

Dynasty is a different animal than redraft and when you trade a player does matter and your current team dictates when and whether you trade a player like Forte. I've said all I know to say on the subject and would otherwise be beating a dead horse from this point onward, so I will excuse myself now.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Finally, if nothing else, right now is a terrible time to trade off Matt Forte. In season either last year or next as people making title pushes bid against each other is hugely likely to bring in much better value. The guy is a very safe bet to be churning out difference making production again next year -- and we've all seen huge windfalls come from that kind of "kingmaker" trade late in the season.

In general that's sound advice. However you have to acknowledge the risk. There's no guarantee any RB is playing in week 10 or whenever the desire for a late season push sets in. People who waited to trade Foster last year lost out. Forte is at an age that any injury depletes his value.

Well, sure. But what are those odds? Any player's value can be crushed by a major injury. Michael himself could blow out a knee in OTAs this Spring.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

flavor of the week / month / year project Michael is terrible.

You're ignoring Michael's value just because you don't like him. If you don't like him he's still top 60 value you can swap for an older WR1 or another older RB (Bush, Rice, Foster).

No, I actually do like Michael as a prospect -- but he is what he is -- a late 2nd round RB. We have zero idea what he actually is beyond that at this point. He's far from the sure thing in a few years that people are making him out to be.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Finally, if nothing else, right now is a terrible time to trade off Matt Forte. In season either last year or next as people making title pushes bid against each other is hugely likely to bring in much better value. The guy is a very safe bet to be churning out difference making production again next year -- and we've all seen huge windfalls come from that kind of "kingmaker" trade late in the season.

In general that's sound advice. However you have to acknowledge the risk. There's no guarantee any RB is playing in week 10 or whenever the desire for a late season push sets in. People who waited to trade Foster last year lost out. Forte is at an age that any injury depletes his value.

Well, sure. But what are those odds? Any player's value can be crushed by a major injury. Michael himself could blow out a knee in OTAs this Spring.

By my count 50% of the redraft RB1s going into 2013 were hurt or had less value by midseason Foster, Martin, Rice, Spiller, Richardson, Morris

flavor of the week / month / year project Michael is terrible.

You're ignoring Michael's value just because you don't like him. If you don't like him he's still top 60 value you can swap for an older WR1 or another older RB (Bush, Rice, Foster).

No, I actually do like Michael as a prospect -- but he is what he is -- a late 2nd round RB. We have zero idea what he actually is beyond that at this point. He's far from the sure thing in a few years that people are making him out to be.

That's not the point. The point is you can't say "1.6+CM is bad value for Forte because CM is overvalued." You can swap CM at his current value. You can reinterpret the deal as 1.6+AJ or 1.6+Rice.

 

[matttyl]

Wasn't involved:

Spiller, Cobb and a 2015 2nd round rookie pick

for

Lacy and K Wright

 

[cstu]

Wasn't involved:

Spiller, Cobb and a 2015 2nd round rookie pick

for

Lacy and K Wright

Spiller/Cobb, not even close.

 

[Spike]

I don't disagree that staying in Denver would be great for his fantasy outlook, maybe even the best. But it's hardly a given he takes the huge hit many are concerned about. If you look at the teams I mentioned however, he'd only be a "#1" in Indy, and depending on how Wayne bounces back or Hilton progresses that's even debatable. There are a ton of situations that wouldn't scare me at all. As long as there's someone across from him that can draw plenty of attention, especially if they can also take the top off the D, Decker will be fine. There are a dozen or so situations he could end up flourishing in. As I said, it's all about where he ends up.

I hope people in my league agree with you, because if he leaves I am trading him.

I did a pre-emptive strike of this sort, trading Decker and Victor Cruz for Julio Jones and the other guy's 2014 2.01 rookie pick. While sheer numbers might favor the Decker/Cruz side, I like the upside of Julio and feel Denver won't be able to pay Decker, thus reducing his ceiling.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Finally, if nothing else, right now is a terrible time to trade off Matt Forte. In season either last year or next as people making title pushes bid against each other is hugely likely to bring in much better value. The guy is a very safe bet to be churning out difference making production again next year -- and we've all seen huge windfalls come from that kind of "kingmaker" trade late in the season.

In general that's sound advice. However you have to acknowledge the risk. There's no guarantee any RB is playing in week 10 or whenever the desire for a late season push sets in. People who waited to trade Foster last year lost out. Forte is at an age that any injury depletes his value.

Well, sure. But what are those odds? Any player's value can be crushed by a major injury. Michael himself could blow out a knee in OTAs this Spring.

By my count 50% of the redraft RB1s going into 2013 were hurt or had less value by midseason Foster, Martin, Rice, Spiller, Richardson, Morris

flavor of the week / month / year project Michael is terrible.

You're ignoring Michael's value just because you don't like him. If you don't like him he's still top 60 value you can swap for an older WR1 or another older RB (Bush, Rice, Foster).

No, I actually do like Michael as a prospect -- but he is what he is -- a late 2nd round RB. We have zero idea what he actually is beyond that at this point. He's far from the sure thing in a few years that people are making him out to be.

That's not the point. The point is you can't say "1.6+CM is bad value for Forte because CM is overvalued." You can swap CM at his current value. You can reinterpret the deal as 1.6+AJ or 1.6+Rice.

A.) Martin, Spiller, and Morris, and possibly Richardson, didn't see a huge hit in their dynasty value at all last year unless you found a hugely over-reactive owner to take advantage of.

B.) Rice / AJ + 1.06 is still bad for Forte, and I like both those players more than most.

 

[thriftyrocker]

A.) Martin, Spiller, and Morris, and possibly Richardson, didn't see a huge hit in their dynasty value at all last year unless you found a hugely over-reactive owner to take advantage of.

Yeah, the young ones didn't.

 

[Spin]

Just happened in one of my leagues

Start 1 qb, 2rb, 3wr, 1te, 1superflex, idp. 1ppr

Team A gave: Giovani Bernard

Team B gave: Richardson, 1.3, 1.4

Team A other RB are Foster, Morris, Mendenhall, Gerhart. Is very thin at WR, Jennings, Andre Johnson and Terrance Williams are starters, with DHB, Royal and Boykin behind em.

Team B has Charles, Rice and now Bernard at rb, and is stacked at WR/QB (Arod, Rg3, Megatron, Aj Green, Crabtree, Nelson, Blackmon, Nicks)

 

[Concept Coop]

Just happened in one of my leagues

Start 1 qb, 2rb, 3wr, 1te, 1superflex, idp. 1ppr

Team A gave: Giovani Bernard

Team B gave: Richardson, 1.3, 1.4

Team A other RB are Foster, Morris, Mendenhall, Gerhart. Is very thin at WR, Jennings, Andre Johnson and Terrance Williams are starters, with DHB, Royal and Boykin behind em.

Team B has Charles, Rice and now Bernard at rb, and is stacked at WR/QB (Arod, Rg3, Megatron, Aj Green, Crabtree, Nelson, Blackmon, Nicks)

Major overpay for Gio in a Super-Flex, imo.

 

[Spin]

Just happened in one of my leagues

Start 1 qb, 2rb, 3wr, 1te, 1superflex, idp. 1ppr

Team A gave: Giovani Bernard

Team B gave: Richardson, 1.3, 1.4

Team A other RB are Foster, Morris, Mendenhall, Gerhart. Is very thin at WR, Jennings, Andre Johnson and Terrance Williams are starters, with DHB, Royal and Boykin behind em.

Team B has Charles, Rice and now Bernard at rb, and is stacked at WR/QB (Arod, Rg3, Megatron, Aj Green, Crabtree, Nelson, Blackmon, Nicks)

Major overpay for Gio in a Super-Flex, imo.

I thought so too. Richardson still being valued at late first from what I've seen. Not sure Gio is worth that much, and I'm a big Gio fan.

 

[matttyl]

Wasn't involved:

Spiller, Cobb and a 2015 2nd round rookie pick

for

Lacy and K Wright

Then the guy getting Spiller immediately spun him off for the #5 and #8 rookie picks in this coming draft. Thoughts on both parts?

 

[Spike]

Those posting he should have gotten more are a bunch of Forte owners wishing they can unload him and are hoping to drive up his value, but can't really do it for his true "dynasty" value, and I emphasize dynasty. I don't think he's ready to fall off the cliff yet, but his car is parked beside it.

Just had his best season ever but he is parked beside a cliff? Trade a guy who just had his best season for a #3 RB who had a good preseason? Am I seeing this right? I do not own Forte in any league but wish I did. I have no interest in acquiring a #3 RB who just has upside sitting behind an elite for an elite. Seems counter productive to your team. People bail on players way too early from what I gather here at Footballguys.

Look, in dynasty it's all about trading a guy at the right time and it's better to be a year too early than a year too late. He's 28 years old and will be 29 toward the end of next season, so the potential for a quick regression is there whether you want to believe it or not. Now if you're talking redraft, I agree with you 100%, but in a dynasty league, I don't think he did as bad with that trade as some of you guys are saying.

No argument there. But trading a "year too early" in February for a deal that is only good if you think CMichaels is the next sure RB1 in SEA. It would also seem it is already a year too late. Charles would never be sold for anywhere close to this and he is one year younger

You don't have much of a dynasty if you keep trading down to hit on the next great thing...right now that's a long way down for youth. I try to win in dynasty (and redraft) so I would rather not purge guys because I am worried I will be left holding the bag on them. You win some and you lose some. I can't imagine you will get any less for Forte in October when a couple RB's get hurt or start slow

You act as if the 1.6 is garbage and those with the redraft mentality probably think the same way. Yes, I think Michael will be a good back eventually, but there was more to that deal than Michael.

Yes he gave up 2.4 for the swap, it wasn't like Forte for Michael and 1.6. So in your point to contradict yourself. I feel pick 6 this year is the same as pick 12 because the the draft is so deep.

I've been reading the play-by-play here and have no horses in this race so I feel free to ask why do you seem to want to pick a fight with anyone who doesn't fall into lockstep with your opinion?

 

[False Start]

Those posting he should have gotten more are a bunch of Forte owners wishing they can unload him and are hoping to drive up his value, but can't really do it for his true "dynasty" value, and I emphasize dynasty. I don't think he's ready to fall off the cliff yet, but his car is parked beside it.

Just had his best season ever but he is parked beside a cliff? Trade a guy who just had his best season for a #3 RB who had a good preseason? Am I seeing this right? I do not own Forte in any league but wish I did. I have no interest in acquiring a #3 RB who just has upside sitting behind an elite for an elite. Seems counter productive to your team. People bail on players way too early from what I gather here at Footballguys.

Look, in dynasty it's all about trading a guy at the right time and it's better to be a year too early than a year too late. He's 28 years old and will be 29 toward the end of next season, so the potential for a quick regression is there whether you want to believe it or not. Now if you're talking redraft, I agree with you 100%, but in a dynasty league, I don't think he did as bad with that trade as some of you guys are saying.

No argument there. But trading a "year too early" in February for a deal that is only good if you think CMichaels is the next sure RB1 in SEA. It would also seem it is already a year too late. Charles would never be sold for anywhere close to this and he is one year younger

You don't have much of a dynasty if you keep trading down to hit on the next great thing...right now that's a long way down for youth. I try to win in dynasty (and redraft) so I would rather not purge guys because I am worried I will be left holding the bag on them. You win some and you lose some. I can't imagine you will get any less for Forte in October when a couple RB's get hurt or start slow

You act as if the 1.6 is garbage and those with the redraft mentality probably think the same way. Yes, I think Michael will be a good back eventually, but there was more to that deal than Michael.

Yes he gave up 2.4 for the swap, it wasn't like Forte for Michael and 1.6. So in your point to contradict yourself. I feel pick 6 this year is the same as pick 12 because the the draft is so deep.

I've been reading the play-by-play here and have no horses in this race so I feel free to ask why do you seem to want to pick a fight with anyone who doesn't fall into lockstep with your opinion?

Discussing football and value is picking a fight?

 

[Spike]

Just happened in one of my leagues

Start 1 qb, 2rb, 3wr, 1te, 1superflex, idp. 1ppr

Team A gave: Giovani Bernard

Team B gave: Richardson, 1.3, 1.4

Team A other RB are Foster, Morris, Mendenhall, Gerhart. Is very thin at WR, Jennings, Andre Johnson and Terrance Williams are starters, with DHB, Royal and Boykin behind em.

Team B has Charles, Rice and now Bernard at rb, and is stacked at WR/QB (Arod, Rg3, Megatron, Aj Green, Crabtree, Nelson, Blackmon, Nicks)

Major overpay for Gio in a Super-Flex, imo.

Agreed.

 

[ShaHBucks]

.5 ppr

Green, Ladarius SDC TE

For

Lattimore, Marcus SFO RB

 

[squistion]

.5 ppr

Green, Ladarius SDC TE

For

Lattimore, Marcus SFO RB

One of the few trades here that seems right from both sides...we haven't seen anything form Lattimore but how/when that Green becomes a fantasy factor in SD is about as speculative.

 

[EBF]

10 team ppr start 10: 1 QB, 2-4 RB, 3-5 WR, 1-3 TE, D/ST

Forte + 2.04 rookie

for

CMike + 1.06 rookie

That is just horrible value for Forte.

Is it me or is Michael so over valued by many, why would someone want him over Forte? Lynch is still the bell cow and Turbin is not something to turn your nose at. I'm just confused by this is all.

I like Michaels, fine, but he has become the overhyped darling of FBGs. Its seems no one was all that high on him come draft time, but after a few big preseason games, the hype train just kept growing.

Guys like Kareem Huggins, Danny Ware and Anthony Dixon have had huge preseasons before.

I don' think this was a terrible trade since the guy getting Michaels also got the 1.06 - but the guy gettingg Forte (and the 2.04 which some seem to be ignoring) will likely not be very disappointed for for the next 2-3 years and how far do we want to look ahead?

Agreed. Somehow in the course of a season where he didn't do anything of note, Michael has moved from "late 2nd round NFL RB" to "sure fire future stud" -- at the prices he's commanding he's a definite sell. Let someone else absorb the risk.Shiny new toy syndrome at its finest. Michael is the same as David Wilson last year, only with less immediacy in finding out what you actually have.

It's really kind of remarkable - his value has grown for no other reason (as you said he was inactive for most weeks) than:

1. Marshawn Lynch has grown one year older.

2. Pure hype, with people's eyes growing wide due to all that talk about him.

I actually liked him pre-NFL draft, and still so - but as you said, there has been absolutely no reason for his value to have shot up as much as it has. He may turn out to be a great back, not saying that he will not, but people are valueing him as if its a given. At this rate you're paying for the upside already making him a poor value.

I think it's mainly about his performance in training camp and the preseason. He also looked good in his limited regular season carries. If you look at what happened with Bell/Lacy/Stacy this year, you can see how much a RB's value will spike just by merely looking serviceable. Those guys might be great players, but none of them had a great season. None of them played out of his mind like Portis, CJ2K, or Peterson did as rookies. They had average rushing stats and compiled their FF numbers primarily on volume. And yet here we are a year later and many many people would not balk at the idea of them as top 10 dynasty RBs.

I think Michael is a better runner than any of those three, so the idea of what his value might look like after a year as a starter is pretty appealing.

 

[False Start]

10 team ppr start 10: 1 QB, 2-4 RB, 3-5 WR, 1-3 TE, D/ST

Forte + 2.04 rookie

for

CMike + 1.06 rookie

That is just horrible value for Forte.

Is it me or is Michael so over valued by many, why would someone want him over Forte? Lynch is still the bell cow and Turbin is not something to turn your nose at. I'm just confused by this is all.

I like Michaels, fine, but he has become the overhyped darling of FBGs. Its seems no one was all that high on him come draft time, but after a few big preseason games, the hype train just kept growing.

Guys like Kareem Huggins, Danny Ware and Anthony Dixon have had huge preseasons before.

I don' think this was a terrible trade since the guy getting Michaels also got the 1.06 - but the guy gettingg Forte (and the 2.04 which some seem to be ignoring) will likely not be very disappointed for for the next 2-3 years and how far do we want to look ahead?

Agreed. Somehow in the course of a season where he didn't do anything of note, Michael has moved from "late 2nd round NFL RB" to "sure fire future stud" -- at the prices he's commanding he's a definite sell. Let someone else absorb the risk.Shiny new toy syndrome at its finest. Michael is the same as David Wilson last year, only with less immediacy in finding out what you actually have.

It's really kind of remarkable - his value has grown for no other reason (as you said he was inactive for most weeks) than:

1. Marshawn Lynch has grown one year older.

2. Pure hype, with people's eyes growing wide due to all that talk about him.

I actually liked him pre-NFL draft, and still so - but as you said, there has been absolutely no reason for his value to have shot up as much as it has. He may turn out to be a great back, not saying that he will not, but people are valueing him as if its a given. At this rate you're paying for the upside already making him a poor value.

I think it's mainly about his performance in training camp and the preseason. He also looked good in his limited regular season carries. If you look at what happened with Bell/Lacy/Stacy this year, you can see how much a RB's value will spike just by merely looking serviceable. Those guys might be great players, but none of them had a great season. None of them played out of his mind like Portis, CJ2K, or Peterson did as rookies. They had average rushing stats and compiled their FF numbers primarily on volume. And yet here we are a year later and many many people would not balk at the idea of them as top 10 dynasty RBs.

I think Michael is a better runner than any of those three, so the idea of what his value might look like after a year as a starter is pretty appealing.

You think Michael is a better runner than any of those three, which three? I do not think he is better than any of the six you suggested. All six have done it against first team NFL defenses in the regular season, not back ups in preseason. So to say he is a better runner just because you think so is a little much as there is nothing to go on.

 

[EBF]

No, you were pretty clear the first time, and we've both been posting here for well over a decade -- I've got a pretty good feel for your mindset in FF. I just disagree completely. Even if your team sucks, Forte just turned 28 in December, and put up monster numbers in 2013. He's not Steven Jackson or Frank Gore. His value isn't moving at all, barring injury of course, this offseason. Cashing out right now for a mid-1st and flavor of the week / month / year project Michael is terrible. If you are dead set on moving him, in season is a very safe bet to bring a ton more value with teams in contention losing RBs etc. There's essentially no risk in waiting a bit -- unless you are much better at predicting an injury than I am. Neither Michael's not Forte's actual value is in any way volatile this offseason, or in the first half of next year. But the market value of a guy who will likely be putting up stud #s could significantly go up if things break right among contending teams next year. And if not, in sure you can still cash out for mid and late 1sts anyway.

You always come down on the "proven production" side in these discussions. There are two sides to the equation though. What if Forte comes out next year and looks like he's lost half a step? What if he has a mediocre FF season? Suddenly you've got a 28-29 year old RB on your roster that absolutely nobody wants to trade for. The youth-crazy owners won't want him for obvious reasons and the win-now crowd won't want him either. So your prized dynasty possession just became virtually worthless overnight. He's not helping you win anything and you can't move him for any value. It's not as far-fetched as it seems. Look at Ray Rice after last season. Then consider that Forte is 28, so you're virtually GUARANTEED a huge loss in trade value over the next 1-2 years if you grab him right now.

I actually think trading Forte for Michael and 1.06 is horrible, but not for the reasons you think. I think it's horrible for the side giving up Michael and the pick. Michael might have more value moving forward than Forte. Same with the pick. Both of them together is a huge overpay. Trading one fading star for two ascending assets that each have a very strong chance to eclipse him within 12-18 months.

The "proven production" folks tend to exaggerate the risk of youth while also underplaying the risk of veterans. All of the recent top players today like McCoy, Chris Johnson, S Jackson, Charles, Rice, and MJD began their careers as "OMG why would you pay huge prices for that random prospect" like Michael is today. Somewhere out there right now, the next batch of stars is waiting to be unearthed. Michael has as good a case as just about anyone who isn't already putting up #'s. It's also worth pointing out again how quickly veteran stars can lose their value. I took Brian Westbrook at the zenith of his career in the first round of a dynasty draft. Within two years he was untradeable. The same thing happened with Tomlinson towards the end of his career. Rice looks like he might be headed that direction. Forte, Lynch, and Peterson will be there soon. Just because a player has done it for several years doesn't mean he's going to play at a high level forever. Forte's value is only headed in one direction from this point forward and that's down. Next year when he's 29 you won't be able to get a 2nd-3rd round startup pick for him. And a year later when he's 30, virtually nobody will want him (see: Gore, SJax). And that's assuming that he stays healthy and productive. If he slips, his value will fall even faster.

 

[ShaHBucks]

EBF something makes me think no RB on any of your teams actually gets carries in a game JK

 

[cstu]

Wasn't involved:

Spiller, Cobb and a 2015 2nd round rookie pick

for

Lacy and K Wright

Then the guy getting Spiller immediately spun him off for the #5 and #8 rookie picks in this coming draft. Thoughts on both parts?

Cobb, 1.5, 1.8, and a 2nd for Lacy/Wright? Good lord.

 

[EBF]

You think Michael is a better runner than any of those three, which three? I do not think he is better than any of the six you suggested. All six have done it against first team NFL defenses in the regular season, not back ups in preseason. So to say he is a better runner just because you think so is a little much as there is nothing to go on.

I don't think those guys proved very much as runners. They had average-to-poor efficiency stats for the most part. I think if you stuck any number of mediocre NFL runners into the same opportunity, you would've gotten a very similar rushing output (guys like B Tate, Ridley, Gerhart, Bryce Brown, Pierce, Green-Ellis, Leshoure, Greene).

I think there's a difference between scoring a lot of FF points and having a good NFL season. Those rookie backs had nice FF numbers, but was their NFL performance above average? I don't think so. I think their value derived more from their high usage than their outstanding individual playmaking. I mentioned Portis, Peterson, and CJ2K because that's what a GREAT rookie rushing season really looks like. Rare explosiveness and lots of big plays. That's hard to find.

3.X yards and a cloud of dust is not hard to find. There are 30-50 guys in the league who can do that. So I'm not convinced that Bell/Lacy/Stacy proved much of anything apart from the fact that they were clearly the best back in a very weak stable. I think people overrate their achievements. To be fair, it's impressive when a rookie wins a starting job and plays halfway decent. And there's a chance that those guys are just scratching the surface of their potential. But to suggest that they've proven something significant just because they had one mediocre rushing season is a bit of a stretch. All they've really proven so far is that they aren't complete flops ala Kenny Irons, Eric Shelton, and Maurice Clarett. Everything else is still up in the air.

Looking at it this way, I don't think they've proven significantly more than Michael. They just happened to be fortunate enough to land in situations with no real competition for carries whereas he landed on a team with no real opportunity. If you could switch their places, it's possible that he would've done worse than those guys (maybe he would've totally flopped ala Hardesty/Shelton/Irons/T Bell). On the other hand, it's also possible that he would've been equally serviceable or maybe even outstanding. I think the latter is likely since he's a more gifted athlete and a more explosive runner than any of those guys. I think in their shoes he would've broken more long runs and had a better YPC. Based on what I've seen of him, he's probably the most talented runner of that group. Possibly by a significant margin.