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*** OFFICIAL *** 13/14 Off-Season Dynasty Trade Thread (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Concept Coop
- Start date
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
In a must start 2qb I could maybe see it, but don't like this at in a superflex where you can start up to 4 RBs.
Mathews scored virtually the same as Flacco last year anyway, and pretty much any starting QB he can acquire in the next year via FA or the draft will be as good as Flacco in FF.
Based on where Lee probably went in the rookie/start-up draft, that is too much for Green IMO. Based on my personal thoughts about Lee, if you prefer Green to Julio at all not a bad price to pay.
Greggity
Footballguy
I like AJ a hair more in a dynasty. When the guy threw in Lee who went in rd 10 in the startup it was enough for me to move AJ. I thought it was a good deal...
Yeah I can see taking the RB's in this deal. Matthews is pretty solid when healthy and Brown is a bit of an enigma but has some potential in the right situation
Not great value for Flacco imo but if you believe he tops out at QB15-18 or so it isn't a bad deal. Those 2nds and 3rds will be more valuable in superflex next year too
jeaton6
Footballguy
What starting quarterbacks are available as FA? I don't see too many in Superflex. If one was available I doubt the Manuel owner is making that trade. Last year Mathews numbers were similar to Flaccos but Flacco had the worst season of his career and a rebound is likely while at the same time improvement for Mathews isn't.
cstu
Footballguy
steveski
Footballguy
That's exactly how I felt. I like my other WR's so decided to take the pick. Could use it as ammo to trade up next year if need be.
steveski
Footballguy
That's a tough call for me, but I think I'd prefer Julius. Vernon might be running out of juice in the tank in a couple years and Julius probably won't have Manning throwing him the ball in a couple years so they both could drop in value, but at least Julius should be around for a while longer and maybe by then he'll be on a different team with a good QB.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I meant during the season. He can pickup whatever backup QB gets on the field due to injuries or whatever reason. This year's version of last year's guys like Mike Glennon, Josh McCown, Case Keenum, Nick Foles, Kellen Clemens, Brian Hoyer, Jason Campbell, Matt Cassell, Matt McGloin, etc. That's the thing about Joe Flacco. His game to game fantasy production is so bad that you can get basically the same production out of virtually ANY quarterback that gets a start in the league, no matter how bad. And while Flacco had a bad season last year from a real life perspective, from a fantasy perspective he was right on his career average and I think we can expect the same going forward.
It's not like he has a hole in his lineup at superflex that he can't plug until another QB loses their job to injury or poor performance. Ryan Mathews scores at the same clip as Joe Flacco so there is no change to his scoring in the meantime. The difference is that, had he kept Mathews when he picked up whomever of the oodles of QBs that will get starting shots this year he would then be able to move Mathews to RB and still get the same production out of the superflex spot. Now that RB spot just sits empty.
It was practically giving away Ryan Mathews (and change) for nothing. Well, I guess now he doesn't have to click that button during the season to pick up one of those many free agent QBs who are now scoring on par with Flacco. So I guess there's that.
jeaton6
Footballguy
I guess it depends how deep the benches are but many backup QBs are carried in non Superflex leagues so I find it unlikely that there will be oodles on the WW in a Superflex league unless it's shallow and even if they are out there they won't come cheap. I also don't agree that Flacco was on his career average as his TDs were the lowest he's had since his rookie year and his Ints were nearly double his worst year. I do agree he's tended to be high variance week to week and at the end of the day his end of year stats tend to vary little from year to year. I like Mathews and I don't like Flacco but I think he has as many weapons as he's ever had and finally getting a healthy Pitta back is going to help. Mathews' workload will probably take a hit this year I just don't believe he's going to deliver 1,400 yards in that crowded backfield.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Even in a superflex, do you think that Mike Glennon, Josh McCown, Jason Campbell, Brian Hoyer, and Matt McGloin were on rosters entering the season last year?
As to Flacco vs his career averages. Fantasy points by season:
2008: 183
2009: 206
2010: 231
2011: 202
2012: 234
2013: 208
2013 was actually the third highest scoring season of his career, and a mere 26 points below his career high.
I had Glennon on all my superflex teams from the draft. Also Hoyer on a couple teams...the rest you are right not really rostered. Also Thad Lewis had good games when he started so you are right in that Flacco is an uninspiring superflex option even
JPeso
Footballguy
True, but you also can't overdraft QBs - last year I made the mistake of taking EJ Manuel over DeAndre Hopkins and Le'Veon Bell in one superflex league. Though the door isn't shut on Manuel, it's not looking like a very good move on my part.
jeaton6
Footballguy
Not sure where you got the stats above from? Looks like you are using worst case 1/25 passing, 4 per TD, -2 per INT. OP said std FBG scoring which in the Data Dominatir is 1/20, 4 per TD, -1per INT. Using those stats Flacco was 4.5 ppg better than Matthews last year. If it's 6 per TD he's 7 ppg better. I'll give you that Flacco was around his career avg last year. Again, I believe Flacco's more likely to improve on last years stats (though minimally). Similar yards (better options than last year, fewer attempts but higher ypa), higher TDs, lower INTs (fewer attempts). Mathews is in a crowded backfield and has not proven he can stay healthy and is likely to regress.
I could also spout off a laundry list of WW RBs that got starts as well but no point.
If this improves his lineup then I get the move I just think there could have been value.
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BuckeyeChaos
Footballguy
16 team start DT, 2DE, 3LB, 2CB, 2S 1FLEX tackle heavy
give J Cyprien
get 2017 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th round rook picks
give J Cyprien
get 2017 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th round rook picks
pyite76
Footballguy
In our league last year, Flacco scored 253 (one of his worst seasons) and Mathews scored 170. I guess I mislead with the "FBG scoring". We use 6 pt passing TDs and -3 for picks.
It's a 47 man roster dynasty league, and QBs are most valuable. There aren't any QBs available on the WW. Here are some of the top available names:
Kellen Clemens
Tarvaris Jackson
Jeff Tuel
Matt Simms
So basically garbage.
It's a superflex league, but if you aren't starting 2 QBs you are at a disadvantage.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
WW RBs don't apply the same way here, because to replace Ryan Mathews they have to not only play, but they have to actually be good. To replace Joe Flacco all a QB literally has to do is play. In the current passing era if they're on the field it's almost impossible for them not to be within a point or two of what Flacco is putting up, if not performing better than him.
Above we listed off about 8 guys that were probably on the WW and either outperformed Flacco or were within a point or two per game of him. There's not a single WW RB that outperformed Mathews and not a single one within a point or two per game of him.
The closest we can get at RB is probably Rashad Jennings who was 2.5ppg behind. After that, Andre Ellington might have been available at 3.1ppg behind. Beyond that we're looking at almost 5ppg behind for LaGarrette Blount even counting his 31 point game in week 17 that most people didn't get to use.
The scoring system and large rosters (though it's IDP so not as large as they seem) do change things some, but I still think it's a really bad move for the guy getting Flacco, the same way I'd say that trading Julio Jones for Ben Tate isn't a good trade just because the guy getting Tate needs a RB.
I'm sure the QB WW looks bare now, but that will change during the season as some truly random guys get a shot every year. I'm sure if you'd given me the best available WW QBs entering last year you wouldn't have even bothered listing guys like Jason Campbell and Matt McGloin, yet there they were, matching Flacco step for step by about the midpoint of the season.
Flacco has a nice reliable starting gig and gives him a 6ppg advantage. That seems nice enough. But while not starting a QB at superflex may be a disadvantage, starting Joe Flacco (IE pretty much the worst QB you can get in fantasy terms) is still a disadvantage. I think I would have eaten the 6 points for 6 weeks until I could replace him and retained a higher advantage going forward. When those random 8th string QBs come in and start scoring the same as Flacco that 6ppg advantage is going to swing to an even larger disadvantage the other way as those guys sit on his bench behind Flacco (or start ahead of Flacco) and Ryan Mathews' vacated RB spot wrings hollow.
I also have much more confidence that the QB spot could be filled to Flacco's level going forward than that the RB spot could be filled to Mathew's level going forward. As mentioned above, replacing Ryan Mathews means you have to find a GOOD starting running back. Replacing Joe Flacco means you have to find ANY starting quarterback.
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thriftyrocker
Footballguy
The last thing you want in a superflex league is to feel like you are in the position where you HAVE to draft a QB EVERY year. So many QBs are not just blown picks but roster albatrosses that you can't let go of because what if. It is better to pay the piper, solidify the position, and then only take QBs you like. You will like superflex leagues a lot more when you are benefiting from people reaching for QBs instead of actively participating in the practice of reaching.
pyite76
Footballguy
I hear what you are saying, but I don't think you quite understand the lack of QBs on the waiver wire. Guys like:
Ryan Griffin
Scott Tolzien
Kory Faulkner
Connor Shaw
Tajh Boyd
Thad Lewis
Jason Campbell
Landry Jones
TJ Yates
Ryan Nassib
Josh Freeman
Matt McGloin
Bruce Gradkowski
Tyler Wilson
are ALL rostered currently, and all (except the rookies) were rostered last year as well. Finding ANY starting QB is impossible. A guy gave a late first for Case Keenum at some point, all based on his big game vs. Indy last year. When the deal went down, many owners laughed at him paying a 1st for Keenum, but then Case went off in his 2nd start as well. Of course he sank back into obscurity shortly after, but that gives you an idea of what QBs are worth in our league.
We decided before the league began (9th year this season) that since QBs are easily the most important position in the NFL, that they should hold the same importance in our league. It's structured around that concept.
If you are looking to the WW for a QB, you could be waiting years. They just don't come around very often as nearly all are drafted in rookie draft every year.
jeaton6
Footballguy
I think you are higher on Mathews than most. You are neither factoring in injury nor regression risk while ignoring the likely improved numbers Flacco should see. Very few backup QBs would even be available in Superflex if any. The competition to get anyone on the WW once an injury were to occur would be fierce. Especially for the owner who lost the QB. Once Rashad Jennings became the starter (week 5) his ppg were higher than Matthews. Matt Asiata and Edwin Baker also higher (granted on limited action). Good conversation but time (for me at least) to move on to next trade evaluation.
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. In fact, I'm going to throw a million s. I'm throwing all the s there are.Did I miss something, here? We are talking about Ryan Mathews, right? Is there another Ryan Mathews I'm not aware of that plays RB, is younger than 27, and is somehow a future Hall of Famer? Or is this the Ryan Mathews I'm thinking of- the one who plays for the Chargers and has never scored more than 7 TDs in a single season? The one who played fewer snaps last season than Danny Woodhead? Are you sure you really want to go with a Julio Jones analogy here? Are you sure you want to go to the mat for the Ryan Mathews who was the 22nd RB off the board in the most recent round of DLF mocks?
Also, while we're at it, in a superflex league Joe Flacco is no Ben Tate. Ben Tate may or may not be a starter this season. Joe Flacco is a 29-year-old franchise QB who'll probably be starting another half dozen years in the league. Sure, you might be able to pull a Matt McGloin off the waiver wire this year to get comparable (but inferior) production to Joe Flacco for 6 games. Assuming you're able to beat every other QB-needy team to the wire for him, of course. And then, afterwards, you'll have to pull another one off the wire. And after that QB gets benched four games later, you'll have to pull another. Then two more next year. Three more the year after that. Five more the year after that. But yeah, provided you can manage to do that in a superflex league where the QB wire is routinely picked down to the bone, then sure, you could totally get comparable production to Joe Flacco without having to give up the irreplaceable Ryan Mathews.
I would give Mathews, Brown, a future 2nd, and a future 3rd all day long for Joe Flacco in that league, and chuckle to myself about what I heist I just pulled off.
FFDude23
Footballguy
10 tm PPR. start: 1 QB, 2-3 RB, 3-5 WR, 1-3 TE
Gave: David Wilson
Got: 2015 2nd
Wilson was probably my 8th best RB and probably the player with the least value on my 26 man roster, I have a deep roster and needed to open up a roster spot for a d/st, I also picked up Khiry Robinson recently knowing that I was going to eventually move Wilson.
Gave: David Wilson
Got: 2015 2nd
Wilson was probably my 8th best RB and probably the player with the least value on my 26 man roster, I have a deep roster and needed to open up a roster spot for a d/st, I also picked up Khiry Robinson recently knowing that I was going to eventually move Wilson.
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cstu
Footballguy
FFDude23
Footballguy
This is how I was looking at it. Dropped my defense to secure k-rob a couple weeks ago then traded wilson to open a spot for a defense or free agent add.
jeaton6
Footballguy
Understood just not a fan of opening up the spot for a D. Plenty of time for that...
Nucker101
Footballguy
jurb26
Footballguy
I'll take team B's haul.
Nucker101
Footballguy
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bostonfred
Footballguy
Luck and gronk are the two best players in the deal. Depends on format, but I usually prefer luck.Harvin for gordon is a reasonable trade. You'll get rational people on either side.
Hyde is going for an early/mid first right now. Eifert is still going for a first in some leagues. Neither is going for that price to me. Foles for two firsts seems reasonable to me, and if the format dictates that foles is worth more than that then luck is worth a lot more than gronk.
So I think I prefer the luck side, but only if I can find interested parties to take hyde and eifert from me because I don't particularly like either of them.
opensourcebeer
Footballguy
Same here.jurb26 said:
Even worse when considering Team B just drafted Reed at 7.01 like a week ago. Witten went 11.07 & Murray at 15.07
jeaton6
Footballguy
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
12tm PPR
Ray Rice
for
Khiry Robinson
2.9 (Kelvin Benjamin)
Andre Brown
4.4
14tm 0.5 PPR
2.12 (Allen Robinson)
for
Greg Olsen
Reggie Wayne
Ray Rice
for
Khiry Robinson
2.9 (Kelvin Benjamin)
Andre Brown
4.4
14tm 0.5 PPR
2.12 (Allen Robinson)
for
Greg Olsen
Reggie Wayne
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