Got to value the proven talent of KW over all the rookies this year except maybe the top three. There's just to much risk of these youngsters busting.
And there's risk of Wright not breaking 80/900 and being basically what Cecil Shorts is. Valuewise, it's much safer to invest in someone like Adams whose upside isn't questioned. Most of Wright's points came with QBs no longer in Tenn. He's the perfect guy for Fitzpatrick, not Locker. There's a ton of WRs I'd happily downgrade Wright to. Wright is far from a safe investment, and if you're blindly looking at ADP he's way overvalued.
While I somewhat disagree with saying the Wright is far from a safe investment, I do think his value is pretty capped. Two years ago he was going anywhere near 1.08-2.02 if I had to guess in rookie drafts. I still think his value is roughly the same. He's got a way higher floor than the rookies at that spot, but I'd rather gamble on the upside of the Kelvin Benjamin, Latimer, Davante Adams, Marqise Lee, and Allen Robinson. Especially if I have some a solid WR core at 1-3.
KW is only capped by his QB right now. The new offense they are putting in is going to increase his deep targets a little. I got him at 100 receptions, 1150 yards, and 5-6 TD's this year. Which will put him at WR15ish I traded for KW last week so I'm could be biased and I recognize that. I have had mixed reviews on the trade but a couple of things to note. I feel KW is only going to get better moving forward. That league I'm in has short benches so you can only hold/wait for one or two rookies to develop. I already have Cooks and ASJ on that team so holding another rookie WR that could take literally 3 years to develop would have been extremely difficult.At this point I would rank those second tier WR listed in this order. Latimer> Adams> Robinson> >Benjamin>>>Lee. KW's proven production is above all of them. Non of those WR are going in you starting line up this year or next maybe besides Benjamin. We are not even factoring in bust rates for these guys yet. None of those guys are a lock to have a 1000 yard receiving season or anywhere close to 100 receptions.
Not one of my teams but in my 12 team PPR dynasty league today
Team A gets: Justin Hunter, Cooks, J. Bell, A. Williams
Team B gets: L. Bell, Evans, Golden Tate, Donald Brown
I like team B a little better but it's pretty close. Depends how much you like Justin Hunter and how many WR can be started. L. Bell is the best player in the deal but that could easily change by next year and Cooks could be the best player in the deal.
Or Evans could be. I'm not a huge Evans fan, and do like Cooks a lot, but I think Evans is the clear 1.02 in rookie drafts.
Value wise I look at that trade like this.
Evans/Donald Brown => Cooks/Andre Williams
Golden Tate >>> Joique
Le'Veon >>> Hunter.
I'm also a Hunter fan and not really a Le'Veon fan, but Le'Veon's value, start up wise is a good four rounds ahead of Hunter's.
Nice post. I know it's not popular on this site and I do take their rankings into consideration when I'm ranking rookies but I have Cooks>Evans in PPR. Evans certainly has more upside but keep in mind his biggest advantage should be in the red zone and Tampa also added a red zone monster in ASJ. That's certainly going to cut into Evans targets in that area of the field. Evans is the riskier pick of the two because there is a lot of mouths to feed and they could run a good amount of scores in with Martin as well. Cooks is walking into the perfect situation. Elite QB + Elite offense + aging WR1 on the roster + Can't double him because of Jimmy. I'm a big Andre Williams fan as well. What tips the scales in favor of team B for me is Le'Veon Bell. He's going to be the Steelers bell cow for 5 years.Evans/ Brown<<Cooks/Williams
Tate>>> Joique
Le'Veon Bell>>>Hunter
I'll reply to both of those as one post.
If you think Kendall Wright is going to receive much more longer targets this year, but only project him at 100/1150, that pretty much exactly what he did last year (11.5 ypc). He did this with really no other good receiver on the team, or one that was NFL ready yet. He put up 94/1079 last year. Justin Hunter will eat into those targets, or at the very least, should. That itself should limit some of the targets KW receives. While I still think he will be rather productive, I also think Locker looked pretty decent last year before getting injured. If I had to put a number of what KW will do, I think something like 85 (145 targets)/1000 yards, and would agree with about 5-6 TDs. I do think those are solid numbers, as it would put him almost exactly where he was at last year, a low WR2, I think that's essentially what his upside is capped at. While I don't mind the deal you pulled off with getting him, certainly with how high you are on Andre Williams, you still managed to draft Mark Ingram ahead of him, also taking him ahead of Allen Robinson and Donte Moncrief. While Moncrief won't be heavily targeted this year and might not see much PT, he's a WR worth waiting two years for, especially with Andrew Luck at QB. With what you did, I would rather take Jordan Matthews there who could easily put up a 70/1000/8 stat line in Chip's offense, as a rookie.
While I can definitely respect you for having Cooks ahead of Evans, I still haven't been able to rank Cooks ahead. As you said, there are a lot of mouths to feed (in the redzone) in TB, there's even more to feed in Nola. I know you're super high on ASJ, as taking him at 1.10 is pretty evident of that, I however think that is a pretty big reach, especially in this talented draft class. VJax is 31, and has Evans next to him with really no 3rd WR option, I think they will all get their fair share of redzone opportunies. While Evans should be a beast down there, I think it's pretty likely that he could end up with 10 TDs as he probably will benefit from VJax getting double. While ASJ should too, I think you could have held off and gotten ASJ at 2.05 pretty easily.