***Official 2008 NFL Week 1 Wagering thread*** (1 Viewer)

[TheWick]

Well it is that time of year guys and gals...here is the week 1 lines...lets hear what you got

NFL Lines For Week 1 - NFL Football Line Week One

NFL Line 9/4 - 9/8, 2008

Date & Time Favorite Line Underdog Total

9/4 7:00 ET At NY Giants -4 Washington 41

9/7 1:00 ET Cincinnati -1.5 At Baltimore 38

9/7 1:00 ET NY Jets -3 At Miami 36

9/7 1:00 ET At New England -16 Kansas City 44.5

9/7 1:00 ET At Pittsburgh -6.5 Houston 43

9/7 1:00 ET Jacksonville -3 At Tennessee 36.5

9/7 1:00 ET Detroit -3 At Atlanta 41

9/7 1:00 ET At Buffalo -1 Seattle 39

9/7 1:00 ET At New Orleans -3 Tampa Bay 42.5

9/7 1:00 ET At Philadelphia -7.5 St. Louis 44

9/7 4:15 ET Dallas -5.5 At Cleveland 49

9/7 4:15 ET At San Diego -9 Carolina 42

9/7 4:15 ET Arizona -2.5 At San Francisco 41.5

9/7 8:15 ET At Indianapolis -9.5 Chicago 44

Monday Night Football Line

9/8 7:00 ET At Green Bay -2.5 Minnesota 38.5

9/8 10:15 ET Denver -3 At Oakland 41

 

[massraider]

Just moved to Vegas, and planning on just doing some dumb longshot parlays, as I simply don't do the research necessary to play for real.

:sehorn:

Like both dogs on MNF, and the Vikes are getting 3 out here.

 

[TheWick]

I like the Giants tomorrow night and BUF on sunday and MIN on monday if I can get 3.5

 

[aiverson]

Wick, I'd recommend mentioning Week 1 in your title, and each week starting a new thread. Just keeps things clean.

 

[Blackjacks]

Well it is that time of year guys and gals...here is the week 1 lines...lets hear what you got

NFL Lines For Week 1 - NFL Football Line Week One

NFL Line 9/4 - 9/8, 2008

Date & Time Favorite Line Underdog Total

9/4 7:00 ET At NY Giants -4 Washington 41

9/7 1:00 ET Cincinnati -1.5 At Baltimore 38

9/7 1:00 ET NY Jets -3 At Miami 36

9/7 1:00 ET At New England -16 Kansas City 44.5

9/7 1:00 ET At Pittsburgh -6.5 Houston 43

9/7 1:00 ET Jacksonville -3 At Tennessee 36.5

9/7 1:00 ET Detroit -3 At Atlanta 41

9/7 1:00 ET At Buffalo -1 Seattle 39

9/7 1:00 ET At New Orleans -3 Tampa Bay 42.5

9/7 1:00 ET At Philadelphia -7.5 St. Louis 44

9/7 4:15 ET Dallas -5.5 At Cleveland 49

9/7 4:15 ET At San Diego -9 Carolina 42

9/7 4:15 ET Arizona -2.5 At San Francisco 41.5

9/7 8:15 ET At Indianapolis -9.5 Chicago 44

Monday Night Football Line

9/8 7:00 ET At Green Bay -2.5 Minnesota 38.5

9/8 10:15 ET Denver -3 At Oakland 41

red = love itblue = like it

 

[TheWick]

Wick, I'd recommend mentioning Week 1 in your title, and each week starting a new thread. Just keeps things clean.

good idea...done

 

[massraider]

BTW, am doing two season long contests out here in Vegas at the local casinos.

One is a pick 'em game, no spreads, total points scored on Monday night. Winner wins (or splits) $20,000 each week. Cost for the seaosn: $25.

the other is a fantasy game, choose the higher performer between 12 sets of players. Weekly winner gets $5,000. No tiebreakers.

In both contests, buy two get one entry free.

 

[FairWarning]

Carolina

Detroit under

Bears under

Playing the 1st half under in EVERY game. Bet 2/3rds hit also.

 

[JGalligan]

Hmm, I like:

Giving points - Philla, Denver

Getting points - Carolina, Minnesota

Hopefully I can stay away from the parlays this year. They don't like me.

 

[Manster]

Dallas

NO

ARZ

Denver

i really like these teams. close spreads, much better QB's and/or offenses than opposing teams.

 

[bro1ncos]

Cinncy -1.5

Houston +6.5

New Orleans -3

 

[Dragon1952]

I really like:

Buffalo -1

Cincinnati -1.5

Carolina +9 (liked it more at 10)

kinda like:

I saw Cleveland at +6

If the Vikes are at +3

Leans

K.C. +16 can't believe Brady will be sharp...in fact I just looked and this one is currently OTB at my book

Arizona -2.5

 

[Gold Plated Nails]

The Chargers were 7-1 against the spread at home last year. In games where they were double digit favorites they went 5-1 against the spread. The trend is your friend.

 

[Dragon1952]

The Chargers were 7-1 against the spread at home last year. In games where they were double digit favorites they went 5-1 against the spread. The trend is your friend.

Yeah, I know. They are also 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. And going back to 2004, they are 11-1 ATS their last 12 games as a favorite of between 9-11 pts. However, Jake Delhomme has never been a 10 pt dog as a starter for the Panthers (which is what the line started out as). The Chargers were also just 1-4 SU and ATS in their first 4 games last year and averaged just 17 pts per game. Tomlinson gets no pre-season reps, and as he gets older, I think it takes him awhile to get started (like last year). Merriman is not 100%...probably not even 75%, Marcus McNeil isn't 100% and probably won't even start, Gates probably isn't 100% and hasn't played much, Tomlinson had zero reps in pre-season, Jackson has been hampered by injuries and has not got the full benefit of pre-season. I think it all adds up to another potential slow start. Maybe not losing, but probably not covering 9 and 10 pt spreads vs decent teams either. Carolina started 2-1 both SU and ATS last year with Delhomme as the starter and was averaging around 24 pts per game.

 

[Gold Plated Nails]

The Chargers were 7-1 against the spread at home last year. In games where they were double digit favorites they went 5-1 against the spread. The trend is your friend.

Yeah, I know. They are also 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. And going back to 2004, they are 11-1 ATS their last 12 games as a favorite of between 9-11 pts. However, Jake Delhomme has never been a 10 pt dog as a starter for the Panthers (which is what the line started out as). The Chargers were also just 1-4 SU and ATS in their first 4 games last year and averaged just 17 pts per game. Tomlinson gets no pre-season reps, and as he gets older, I think it takes him awhile to get started (like last year). Merriman is not 100%...probably not even 75%, Marcus McNeil isn't 100% and probably won't even start, Gates probably isn't 100% and hasn't played much, Tomlinson had zero reps in pre-season, Jackson has been hampered by injuries and has not got the full benefit of pre-season. I think it all adds up to another potential slow start. Maybe not losing, but probably not covering 9 and 10 pt spreads vs decent teams either. Carolina started 2-1 both SU and ATS last year with Delhomme as the starter and was averaging around 24 pts per game.

Talk about guys comming off of injuries, Delhomme is comming off Tommy John Surgery for petes sake. Oh and the small fact Carolinas main playmaker Steve Smith happens to be out? On the road in front of a sell out? I'll give the 10 no problem.

 

[Johnny Detroit]

BTW, am doing two season long contests out here in Vegas at the local casinos.One is a pick 'em game, no spreads, total points scored on Monday night. Winner wins (or splits) $20,000 each week. Cost for the seaosn: $25.the other is a fantasy game, choose the higher performer between 12 sets of players. Weekly winner gets $5,000. No tiebreakers.In both contests, buy two get one entry free.

make sure you play the Hilton. the World Series of Poker for NFL handicapping. 1st place is usually 200k. a few years back i ended up in a three way tie. had 1st locked up going into the last game of the season, dal-nyg. the two guys under me both had the nyg. dal scores and takes the lead with not much time left. nyg goes down the field and dal gets a penalty deep in their own territory. with like 40 secs left, nyg score a TD at the end to win and cover (on the last play of the last game of the regular season).

 

[brednbuddah]

I'm hearing the remnants TS Hanna is supposed to be in the tri-state area by Sat/Sun. Could just wind up being bad weather, but laying 16.5 pts to KC in NE if it's nasty... The whole Brady foot thing... Welker is hurting...

any word if Hurricane Ike and/or TS Josephine will impact any of the other games..

ETA - spelling correction, welker comment.

 

[massraider]

BTW, am doing two season long contests out here in Vegas at the local casinos.One is a pick 'em game, no spreads, total points scored on Monday night. Winner wins (or splits) $20,000 each week. Cost for the seaosn: $25.the other is a fantasy game, choose the higher performer between 12 sets of players. Weekly winner gets $5,000. No tiebreakers.In both contests, buy two get one entry free.

make sure you play the Hilton. the World Series of Poker for NFL handicapping. 1st place is usually 200k. a few years back i ended up in a three way tie. had 1st locked up going into the last game of the season, dal-nyg. the two guys under me both had the nyg. dal scores and takes the lead with not much time left. nyg goes down the field and dal gets a penalty deep in their own territory. with like 40 secs left, nyg score a TD at the end to win and cover (on the last play of the last game of the regular season).

No way am I serious enough to drop $1,500 on an entry fee. I'm amateur, won't do more than some sill 50 buck parlays all year.

 

[Ghost Rider]

The Chargers were 7-1 against the spread at home last year. In games where they were double digit favorites they went 5-1 against the spread. The trend is your friend.

Not that I am saying take the Panthers, but Carolina has been a much better road team than home team the last few years. Just saying...And I cannot imagine touching that Bengals/Ravens game. Baltimore is starting a rookie QB and are crappy, and the Bengals are, well, the Bengals, and I cannot imagine taking them on the road and laying points.

 

[Dragon1952]

Well as bad as the Bengals have been, they are 5-1 SU vs. the Ravens since 2005 and have won 6 of the last 7 matchups SU overall.

Another thing about the Chargers.....that team that averaged just 17 pts per game last year over their first 4 games and went 1-3 before they finally got their #### together?......they travel to Denver the following week for a big divisional game. Maybe that doesn't mean much, but maybe it does too.

 

[Tanner9919]

The Chargers were 7-1 against the spread at home last year. In games where they were double digit favorites they went 5-1 against the spread. The trend is your friend.

Not that I am saying take the Panthers, but Carolina has been a much better road team than home team the last few years. Just saying...And I cannot imagine touching that Bengals/Ravens game. Baltimore is starting a rookie QB and are crappy, and the Bengals are, well, the Bengals, and I cannot imagine taking them on the road and laying points.

10 sacks, 5 ints and 2 forced fumbles by Carolina's defense in preseason..they're going to be g-o-o-d this season..I think you take the 9-pts and run with it..

 

[AB in DC]

Best Plays:

1) NYJ-MIA OVER 36. I think both teams have a better offense than defense right now. In fact, I think the Miami may have the most underrated offense in the league, but their defense is atrocious. I see this as a 30-20 kind of game.

2) Buf -1. I think Buf is as good as if not better than Seattle right now, plus they're playing at home. My only concern is that Buffalo is still learning a new offense and may not be ready yet, but I just don't see Seattle scoring more than 17 points this week. For that reason I may switch this to the UNDER.

3) Carolina +9. Nine points is a lot to give San Diego with Merriman, Gates, and LT playing through injury.

4) Dal-Cle UNDER 49. Dallas has a lot of injured WRs, and Anderson is still recovering from concussion. I think both teams are good enough on defense to keep this from being a shootout.

 

[Andy Herron]

9/4 7:00 ET At NY Giants -4 Washington 41

9/7 1:00 ET Cincinnati -1.5 At Baltimore 38 (This is a gimme)

9/7 1:00 ET NY Jets -3 At Miami 36

9/7 1:00 ET At New England -16 Kansas City 44.5

9/7 1:00 ET At Pittsburgh -6.5 Houston 43

9/7 1:00 ET Jacksonville -3 At Tennessee 36.5 (Titans offense showed/had nothing in preseason. Nor did the 1st team offense even score a TD)

9/7 1:00 ET Detroit -3 At Atlanta 41

9/7 1:00 ET At Buffalo -1 Seattle 39

9/7 1:00 ET At New Orleans -3 Tampa Bay 42.5

9/7 1:00 ET At Philadelphia -7.5 St. Louis 44

9/7 4:15 ET Dallas -5.5 At Cleveland 49 (Dallas will smoke the Browns here. Clev. secondary has nothing)

9/7 4:15 ET At San Diego -9 Carolina 42

9/7 4:15 ET Arizona -2.5 At San Francisco 41.5 (Warner plus Cards secondary too much for Niners and green offense)

9/7 8:15 ET At Indianapolis -9.5 Chicago 44

 

[massraider]

Interesting on that Browns/Cowboys game, you can get -4.5 to -6, if you shop around.

 

[aiverson]

It looks like several of you are on my early plays. I'm new here, and I know past results do not guarantee future performance, but if you'd like to check out how I've done the last several years as well as understand how I cap games: http://sharpfootballanalysis.blogspot.com/...ason-recap.html

As for this week, two plays I can share are: Buffalo and Carolina

First a word on a few of the reasons why I like Carolina + here.

(note, I do all my own research and analysis, so if you have any question as to the accuracy of these trends and information, let me know and I will be glad to double check)

* Carolina is a very good road dog towards the beginning of the season - since 2002 in week 1-7 of the season, Carolina is 13-3 ATS, including 3-0 last season.

* Carolina is very good at traveling to the West coast, and most games go over - though it has been 4 seasons since Carolina last made the trip west, they have gone 9-1 ATS when traveling to play either the Chargers, the Raiders, the Niners or the Seahawks.

* With regard to the total in this game, in Carolina's West coast trips, the Over has gone 7-3. This conflicts with the fact that as a road dog in the early part of the season, the Under has gone 13-4, including 3-0 last year and 2-1 the year prior.

Second, a few of the reasons why I like Buffalo.

* When a West Coast team (SD, Sea, Oak, SF) travels to the East Coast (AFC East, NFC East) in the early part of the season as a Dog, they are a mere 2-11 SU since 2002. In these games, the Over has gone 9-4.

* Seattle is 1-10 ATS overall vs. the AFC East in the last 10 years. In their games, the Over has gone 9-2.

* Giving the over a good look here could be wise but is not the top play in this game.

This season I will update my own website w/ my picks and plays first, and will then post here as I make the messageboard rounds. I'll be back w/ some more plays.

It really looks like we have a sharp group over here, and I'm sure we will be able to help each other out this season. Good luck to everyone.

 

[brianj74]

I'll take:

Cincy -1.5. Rookie QB starting for Baltimore means trouble. Cincy is no great shakes either but should have enough offense to cover the 1.5.

Jets -3. Most of these games are normally close but I'll take my chances with the better team, even if they are playing on the road.

KC +16. I know it's New England and KC but 16 points is a lot for a week 1 game.

Detroit -3. I don't think Detroit has covered as a road fav in what seems like ages but should have more than enough offense to beat this Atlanta team.

Buffalo -1. If Buffalo loses this game, it'll be a long year.

Dallas -5.5. Seems like a Vegas trap type spread. Dallas is on the road but a mere 5.5 versus Cleveland seems like easy pickens.

Carolina +9. I think Carolina has a chance to win this outright. I'll gladly take the 9.

Minny +2.5. I'm not sold that Green Bay was as good as they showed last year. I think Minny steps up and wins this outright.

 

[massraider]

It looks like several of you are on my early plays. I'm new here, and I know past results do not guarantee future performance, but if you'd like to check out how I've done the last several years as well as understand how I cap games: http://sharpfootballanalysis.blogspot.com/...ason-recap.html

As for this week, two plays I can share are: Buffalo and Carolina

First a word on a few of the reasons why I like Carolina + here.

(note, I do all my own research and analysis, so if you have any question as to the accuracy of these trends and information, let me know and I will be glad to double check)

* Carolina is a very good road dog towards the beginning of the season - since 2002 in week 1-7 of the season, Carolina is 13-3 ATS, including 3-0 last season.

* Carolina is very good at traveling to the West coast, and most games go over - though it has been 4 seasons since Carolina last made the trip west, they have gone 9-1 ATS when traveling to play either the Chargers, the Raiders, the Niners or the Seahawks.

* With regard to the total in this game, in Carolina's West coast trips, the Over has gone 7-3. This conflicts with the fact that as a road dog in the early part of the season, the Under has gone 13-4, including 3-0 last year and 2-1 the year prior.

Second, a few of the reasons why I like Buffalo.

* When a West Coast team (SD, Sea, Oak, SF) travels to the East Coast (AFC East, NFC East) in the early part of the season as a Dog, they are a mere 2-11 SU since 2002. In these games, the Over has gone 9-4.

* Seattle is 1-10 ATS overall vs. the AFC East in the last 10 years. In their games, the Over has gone 9-2.

* Giving the over a good look here could be wise but is not the top play in this game.

This season I will update my own website w/ my picks and plays first, and will then post here as I make the messageboard rounds. I'll be back w/ some more plays.

It really looks like we have a sharp group over here, and I'm sure we will be able to help each other out this season. Good luck to everyone.

Nice. Looking forward to it.

 

[aiverson]

Lang has a 15 Dime on NYG.

Be aware....

 

[new-guru]

Is there a gambling site that is legit?

Pays timely and has good lines?

I would like to hear good and bad

No Help

I use to use bodog or olypic

who would you guys use?

 

[AB in DC]

9/7 1:00 ET Cincinnati -1.5 At Baltimore 38 (This is a gimme)

Avoid this game as if your life depended on it. NOTHING about these two teams are a gimme.Never put money on a game that will be decided by which team is the least incompetent.

 

[aiverson]

A few (hopefully) helpful trends I researched for tonight's game:

* The NFL has played Thursday Night games to kickoff Week 1 since 2002. That's 6 games. The Home team has gone 4-1-1 ATS in those games and the favored team has never lost that game.

* Since the 2003 season (Fassel/Spurrier's last years, then on came Coughlin/Gibbs for 4 years):

* In their first H2H meeting of the year, the Redskins are 0-5 SU and 0-5 ATS, losing by an avg of 13.6 points. In their second H2H meeting, the Redskins are 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS, winning by an avg of 11.6 points

As a secondary tidbit related to totals:

* In the first H2H meeting, the Under is 3-1-1, going under by an avg of 7 points. The only over was an OT game that would have been under but for the OT. All games in NY were Under and went under the total by an avg of 12 points

* In their second H2H meeting, the Over is 3-2, going over by an avg of 6 points. But the Over is 3-0 when the 2nd game is in Washington, going over by an avg of 15 points.

 

[TheWick]

Well I waited too long but I'm on NYG -4.5 and WAS under 19.5 for the game

I don't think WAS offense is ready for primetime...just a hunch

 

[sheerterror]

I lean towards the Giants in this one. While the defense took a few hits, Washington has not looked organized on either side of the ball this preseason. I don't see the Skins D being able to stop the Giants offense much tonight.

 

[Andy Herron]

9/7 1:00 ET Cincinnati -1.5 At Baltimore 38 (This is a gimme)

Avoid this game as if your life depended on it. NOTHING about these two teams are a gimme.Never put money on a game that will be decided by which team is the least incompetent.

When you have Palmer with his WRs on one side and a rookie QB with next to nothing on the other, it's a gimme.Believe me, I'm anything but a Bengals fan, but this game, "out of the shoots-meaning week one," is a gimme.

The Bengals are going to score. Do you really think the Ravens are capable of playing from behind?

We don't even know if they will be capable of moving the ball.

1.5 points is a gimme.

 

[TheWick]

I think we all cashed on that one...good start dudes!

 

[aiverson]

Hope you guys took advantage of this info last night!

Starting out strong with NYG, and if you caught the other trend on the total:

"In the first H2H meeting, the Under is 3-1-1, going under by an avg of 7 points. The only over was an OT game that would have been under but for the OT. All games in NY were Under and went under the total by an avg of 12 points"

You would have been even stronger. 1 game, side and total, nailed.

Let's carry the positive momentum into the weekend. Back later....

Again, the easiest way to get all my plays is to sign up for the e-mails, and be sure to check the site. I'll try to post here, but w/ all my other duties online, I may not get as much time as I'd like...

Good luck fellas.

A few (hopefully) helpful trends I researched for tonight's game:

* The NFL has played Thursday Night games to kickoff Week 1 since 2002. That's 6 games. The Home team has gone 4-1-1 ATS in those games and the favored team has never lost that game.

* Since the 2003 season (Fassel/Spurrier's last years, then on came Coughlin/Gibbs for 4 years):

* In their first H2H meeting of the year, the Redskins are 0-5 SU and 0-5 ATS, losing by an avg of 13.6 points. In their second H2H meeting, the Redskins are 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS, winning by an avg of 11.6 points

As a secondary tidbit related to totals:

* In the first H2H meeting, the Under is 3-1-1, going under by an avg of 7 points. The only over was an OT game that would have been under but for the OT. All games in NY were Under and went under the total by an avg of 12 points

* In their second H2H meeting, the Over is 3-2, going over by an avg of 6 points. But the Over is 3-0 when the 2nd game is in Washington, going over by an avg of 15 points.

 

[sheerterror]

Hope you guys took advantage of this info last night!

Starting out strong with NYG, and if you caught the other trend on the total:

"In the first H2H meeting, the Under is 3-1-1, going under by an avg of 7 points. The only over was an OT game that would have been under but for the OT. All games in NY were Under and went under the total by an avg of 12 points"

You would have been even stronger. 1 game, side and total, nailed.

Let's carry the positive momentum into the weekend. Back later....

Again, the easiest way to get all my plays is to sign up for the e-mails, and be sure to check the site. I'll try to post here, but w/ all my other duties online, I may not get as much time as I'd like...

Good luck fellas.

A few (hopefully) helpful trends I researched for tonight's game:

* The NFL has played Thursday Night games to kickoff Week 1 since 2002. That's 6 games. The Home team has gone 4-1-1 ATS in those games and the favored team has never lost that game.

* Since the 2003 season (Fassel/Spurrier's last years, then on came Coughlin/Gibbs for 4 years):

* In their first H2H meeting of the year, the Redskins are 0-5 SU and 0-5 ATS, losing by an avg of 13.6 points. In their second H2H meeting, the Redskins are 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS, winning by an avg of 11.6 points

As a secondary tidbit related to totals:

* In the first H2H meeting, the Under is 3-1-1, going under by an avg of 7 points. The only over was an OT game that would have been under but for the OT. All games in NY were Under and went under the total by an avg of 12 points

* In their second H2H meeting, the Over is 3-2, going over by an avg of 6 points. But the Over is 3-0 when the 2nd game is in Washington, going over by an avg of 15 points.

I played the NYG ml to win 2u and was very happy with it. The Giants were dominating early on, but seemed to take their foot off the pedal offensively. The fear of Washington backdooring would have had me sweating - I was happy to lay the extra juice on the moneyline.

 

[Billy Bats]

Kansas City +16

Philly -7.5

New Orleans -3

 

[laughinboy_2000]

Everyone in here does know there is an "Official NFL Wagering" thread in the FootballGuys Free For All right? There is some good information in that thread. People in there know what they are doing. Honestly, I'm shocked the MODS have not shut this thread down yet. So we now have two threads for NFL Gambling. Just a heads up. Good luck to everyone this weekend.

 

[massraider]

Everyone in here does know there is an "Official NFL Wagering" thread in the FootballGuys Free For All right? There is some good information in that thread. People in there know what they are doing. Honestly, I'm shocked the MODS have not shut this thread down yet. So we now have two threads for NFL Gambling. Just a heads up. Good luck to everyone this weekend.

You are shocked easily.

 

[TheWick]

Everyone in here does know there is an "Official NFL Wagering" thread in the FootballGuys Free For All right? There is some good information in that thread. People in there know what they are doing. Honestly, I'm shocked the MODS have not shut this thread down yet. So we now have two threads for NFL Gambling. Just a heads up. Good luck to everyone this weekend.

Notice there are no MarshallPlan arguements in this thread...lets keep it that way.

 

[Liquid Tension]

I like the Giants tomorrow night and BUF on sunday and MIN on monday if I can get 3.5

I missed this thread, but did put down 300 chips on the Giants and had to give 4.5. I was sweating the final drive.BTW, I also plunked down 400 chips n the Giants being over 8.5 wins to win 300 chipsETA that I have not made my other decisions as of yet so I have not posted them. I usually lay low week 1 as upsets seem to happen more often. I never bet any teasers early in the year.Off the top of my head, I like the Jets and Cowboys, but I have not put money there yet. The Dolphins are vastly improved and may be able to run on the Jets, but the defense should have trouble.

 

[laughinboy_2000]

Everyone in here does know there is an "Official NFL Wagering" thread in the FootballGuys Free For All right? There is some good information in that thread. People in there know what they are doing. Honestly, I'm shocked the MODS have not shut this thread down yet. So we now have two threads for NFL Gambling. Just a heads up. Good luck to everyone this weekend.

Notice there are no MarshallPlan arguements in this thread...lets keep it that way.

Paging MarshallPlan... Paging MarshallPlan!!

 

[sheerterror]

I like the Giants tomorrow night and BUF on sunday and MIN on monday if I can get 3.5

I missed this thread, but did put down 300 chips on the Giants and had to give 4.5. I was sweating the final drive.BTW, I also plunked down 400 chips n the Giants being over 8.5 wins to win 300 chips

ETA that I have not made my other decisions as of yet so I have not posted them. I usually lay low week 1 as upsets seem to happen more often. I never bet any teasers early in the year.

Off the top of my head, I like the Jets and Cowboys, but I have not put money there yet. The Dolphins are vastly improved and may be able to run on the Jets, but the defense should have trouble.

Factor in that I don't believe the Dolphins will be able to run all that well on the Jets given the Jenkins addition. I'm trying to tell anyone that will listen - the Jets will not lose this game.

 

[Liquid Tension]

I like the Giants tomorrow night and BUF on sunday and MIN on monday if I can get 3.5

I missed this thread, but did put down 300 chips on the Giants and had to give 4.5. I was sweating the final drive.BTW, I also plunked down 400 chips n the Giants being over 8.5 wins to win 300 chipsETA that I have not made my other decisions as of yet so I have not posted them. I usually lay low week 1 as upsets seem to happen more often. I never bet any teasers early in the year.Off the top of my head, I like the Jets and Cowboys, but I have not put money there yet. The Dolphins are vastly improved and may be able to run on the Jets, but the defense should have trouble.

Does anyone look at prop bets for over and unders? I have had consistent success with them. (Have to come clean though that I struggled mightily this year in baseball on the prop bets)

 

[Dragon1952]

Hope you guys took advantage of this info last night!Starting out strong with NYG, and if you caught the other trend on the total:"In the first H2H meeting, the Under is 3-1-1, going under by an avg of 7 points. The only over was an OT game that would have been under but for the OT. All games in NY were Under and went under the total by an avg of 12 points"You would have been even stronger. 1 game, side and total, nailed.Let's carry the positive momentum into the weekend. Back later....Again, the easiest way to get all my plays is to sign up for the e-mails, and be sure to check the site. I'll try to post here, but w/ all my other duties online, I may not get as much time as I'd like...Good luck fellas.

I think most people were on the Giants already actually, but thanks the same

 

[rzrback77]

Cinci to cover and also take the over

Det and Atlanta over

 

[JKL]

There are three large favorites this weekend. Going back to 1993, teams that are favored by 9 or more points are 17-3 SU but only 6-14 ATS. (13-3, 5-11 ATS at home; 4-0, 1-3 ATS on the road). I think the uncertainty of week one favors the heavy dogs here, so I'll go:

Carolina +9

Chicago +9 1/2

Kansas City +16 1/2

There's an interesting split when we look at slight to moderate home underdogs. Teams that are between a pick em and a 6 1/2 point dog as a home team in divisional matchups in week one are 7-19 SU and 11-14-1 ATS. However, in non-divisional matchups where the home team is a dog of 6 1/2 or less, the dog is 18-25 SU and 26-16-1 ATS.

I'll also add:

ATLANTA +3

CLEVELAND +5 1/2

and I'll add STL +7 1/2 and HOU +6 1/2 as my final two for week one.

 

[JKL]

Second, a few of the reasons why I like Buffalo.

* When a West Coast team (SD, Sea, Oak, SF) travels to the East Coast (AFC East, NFC East) in the early part of the season as a Dog, they are a mere 2-11 SU since 2002. In these games, the Over has gone 9-4. * Seattle is 1-10 ATS overall vs. the AFC East in the last 10 years. In their games, the Over has gone 9-2.

* Giving the over a good look here could be wise but is not the top play in this game.

This season I will update my own website w/ my picks and plays first, and will then post here as I make the messageboard rounds. I'll be back w/ some more plays.

It really looks like we have a sharp group over here, and I'm sure we will be able to help each other out this season. Good luck to everyone.

I looked into this, not necessarily from a gambling perspective, but just to see how much the effect of traveling west to east had on a team to open the season. There have been 31 times that a team from the Mountain or Pacific Time Zone ("Western team") has opened on the road in the Eastern Time Zone in week 1, going back to 1993. The Western team has gone 11-20 in these situations, also 11-20 ATS. However, I wanted to check and see whether this advantage was due to an increased home field advantage, or a line that in retrospect overvalued the particular western team or undervalued the eastern team.Turns out its the latter. I used the Simple Rating System end of season power ratings for each team in those 31 matchups to see how much the home field advantage was worth for the eastern team in week one. Turns out, home field advantage was worth approximately +2.0 points in these matchups. The biggest factor was more that the lines in these particular games were off when looking at it retrospectively, knowing how the teams performed all season.

Let's look at Seattle's results as an example. Seattle has played 6 openers in the Eastern Time Zone.

1994, Seattle won by 21 at Washington as a 1 pt dog. The end of season SRS says Sea turned out about 2.5 points better before taking HFA into account, so that line wasn't bad, but Seattle won convincingly.

1998, Seattle won by 38 at Philadelphia as a 4 1/2 pt favorite. The end of season SRS says Sea turned out about 14 points better before taking HFA into account, so that line was bad in favor of Sea, as Philly was terrible that year, but Seattle won convincingly and by more than expected.

2000, Seattle lost by 23 at Miami as a 3 pt dog. The end of season SRS says Sea turned out about 11 points worse before taking HFA into account, so that line was off, and Seattle ended up being a far worse team than Miami that year.

2001, Seattle won by 3 at Cleveland as a 3 1/2 pt favorite. The end of season SRS says Sea turned out about 1 point worse before taking HFA into account, so they failed to cover by half a point, but the end of season results say that Cleveland probably should have been a slight favorite taking into account HFA, and not Seattle.

2005, Seattle lost by 12 at Jacksonville as a 3 pt dog. The end of season SRS says Sea turned out about 4.5 points better before taking HFA into account (this was the Super Bowl team), but they still lost the game.

2006, Seattle won by 3 at Detroit as a 6 pt favorite. The end of season SRS says Sea turned out about 3 points better before taking HFA into account, so Seattle was overvalued and was not nearly as good a team in 2006 as they were in 2005.

So, Seattle went 4-2 SU and 2-4 ATS in openers in the East. In 2 games, they significantly outperformed their overall season performance and won in blow outs, in two, they underperformed, and in two, they played about in line with the rest of the season, but failed to cover because they were overvalued as a team to start the season.

I am not saying I dislike or have a strong feeling on the Buffalo vs. Seattle game. Only that when I looked deeper, I don't see any strong evidence that Western teams actually play worse in week one when they travel to the East.

 

[Liquid Tension]

Second, a few of the reasons why I like Buffalo.

* When a West Coast team (SD, Sea, Oak, SF) travels to the East Coast (AFC East, NFC East) in the early part of the season as a Dog, they are a mere 2-11 SU since 2002. In these games, the Over has gone 9-4. * Seattle is 1-10 ATS overall vs. the AFC East in the last 10 years. In their games, the Over has gone 9-2.

* Giving the over a good look here could be wise but is not the top play in this game.

This season I will update my own website w/ my picks and plays first, and will then post here as I make the messageboard rounds. I'll be back w/ some more plays.

It really looks like we have a sharp group over here, and I'm sure we will be able to help each other out this season. Good luck to everyone.

I looked into this, not necessarily from a gambling perspective, but just to see how much the effect of traveling west to east had on a team to open the season. There have been 31 times that a team from the Mountain or Pacific Time Zone ("Western team") has opened on the road in the Eastern Time Zone in week 1, going back to 1993. The Western team has gone 11-20 in these situations, also 11-20 ATS. However, I wanted to check and see whether this advantage was due to an increased home field advantage, or a line that in retrospect overvalued the particular western team or undervalued the eastern team.Turns out its the latter. I used the Simple Rating System end of season power ratings for each team in those 31 matchups to see how much the home field advantage was worth for the eastern team in week one. Turns out, home field advantage was worth approximately +2.0 points in these matchups. The biggest factor was more that the lines in these particular games were off when looking at it retrospectively, knowing how the teams performed all season.

Let's look at Seattle's results as an example. Seattle has played 6 openers in the Eastern Time Zone.

1994, Seattle won by 21 at Washington as a 1 pt dog. The end of season SRS says Sea turned out about 2.5 points better before taking HFA into account, so that line wasn't bad, but Seattle won convincingly.

1998, Seattle won by 38 at Philadelphia as a 4 1/2 pt favorite. The end of season SRS says Sea turned out about 14 points better before taking HFA into account, so that line was bad in favor of Sea, as Philly was terrible that year, but Seattle won convincingly and by more than expected.

2000, Seattle lost by 23 at Miami as a 3 pt dog. The end of season SRS says Sea turned out about 11 points worse before taking HFA into account, so that line was off, and Seattle ended up being a far worse team than Miami that year.

2001, Seattle won by 3 at Cleveland as a 3 1/2 pt favorite. The end of season SRS says Sea turned out about 1 point worse before taking HFA into account, so they failed to cover by half a point, but the end of season results say that Cleveland probably should have been a slight favorite taking into account HFA, and not Seattle.

2005, Seattle lost by 12 at Jacksonville as a 3 pt dog. The end of season SRS says Sea turned out about 4.5 points better before taking HFA into account (this was the Super Bowl team), but they still lost the game.

2006, Seattle won by 3 at Detroit as a 6 pt favorite. The end of season SRS says Sea turned out about 3 points better before taking HFA into account, so Seattle was overvalued and was not nearly as good a team in 2006 as they were in 2005.

So, Seattle went 4-2 SU and 2-4 ATS in openers in the East. In 2 games, they significantly outperformed their overall season performance and won in blow outs, in two, they underperformed, and in two, they played about in line with the rest of the season, but failed to cover because they were overvalued as a team to start the season.

I am not saying I dislike or have a strong feeling on the Buffalo vs. Seattle game. Only that when I looked deeper, I don't see any strong evidence that Western teams actually play worse in week one when they travel to the East.

There may not be a useful conclusion, but