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*** Official 2013 St. Louis Rams Thread *** (2 Viewers)

Really thought the D would be better than this.

What I'm not surprised about is that Brian Shottenheimer has no clue how to use a guy like Austin and coordinate an aggressive, spread out passing attack.

 
Not enamored with either coordinator, to be honest. Granted, we've had some drops, but Schotty appears to have no idea how to use the tools we have. Every Austin play is telegraphed, their refusal to go no huddle...

It's also perplexing that they consider the "7-yard cushion" to be an effective way for cornerbacks to play on almost every snap. They're eating the D alive. Jenkins is at least athletic enough to survive this at times, but Finnegan's virtue lies in his physicality, not his cover skills or recovery speed. I'd love to see them take a page or seven from the Seahawks' book.

 
Well, that was a horrendous display yesterday.



I really felt like we stacked up well against both Atlanta and Dallas, especially along the line of scrimmage. But that was just about as disappointing as it could possibly be. It was like a flashback to three years ago. The Rams can’t block, can't tackle, can't cover, can't run, can't pass, can't catch, can't avoid stupid penalties.



Sam had trouble hitting his targets and when he did the receivers would just let the ball bounce off of their mitts. Demarco Murray had his second best career day against us yesterday, only to be surpassed by the first time he met the Rams and racked up a team rushing record. And again, the team continues to commit stupid penalties at the most inopportune moments. The lone bright spot on the day would have been a Tavon Austin kick return to the house but that play was negated by not one but two penalties.



Execution was horrid and the play calling was suspect too. After a punt return fubar gave us the ball on the Dallas 30 we were unable to convert any points. Instead of settling on what I thought would have been a long, but makeable field goal for Legatron, the Rams fail on a razzle-dazzle fake punt pass. What ... was ... that?



That game was deserving of a big fat: "COME ON, MAN!!!"



Now we have just a few days to try to clean up and prepare for the 9ers on Thursday night who are also looking to get the taste of a disappointing loss out of their mouths. We stacked up well against the 9ers last year but that will not make any difference if this team continues to play like crap.

 
Let's see....

Heavily invested in the Rams' D? Check.

Traded away Matt Ryan after week 2 when he looked interchangable with Bradford? Check.

Heavily invested in ancillary pieces like Givens and Cook who will be wildly inconsistent from week to week? Check.

I want my 2012 Rams back.... 2013 ain't looking like the step forward I had anticipated.

 
[SIZE=16.5pt]Bernie: Rams star in grotesque horror show[/SIZE]
BY BERNIE MIKLASZ

[SIZE=10pt]ARLINGTON, Texas[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt] • I feel bad for those who had to watch the game at home, on television, when the Cowboys demolished the sorry, no-account Rams 31-7 on Sunday afternoon at AT&T Stadium.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]Please know this: You were better off in your safe houses, hundreds of miles from this gruesome scene.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]You should have seen what the Rams’ horror show looked like on the Cowboys’ continent-sized jumbo, jumbo, jumbo, Jumbotron. The Rams’ hideous display of football was blown up, magnified a thousand times and sharpened by high definition.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]The big big big big screen technology made Cowboys pass-rushing beast DeMarcus Ware look like Godzilla; I thought he was going to eat everyone in the place after he got done with Rams quarterback Sam Bradford.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]“I didn’t see this one coming,” Rams coach coach Jeff Fisher said. “I can’t explain it.”[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]He couldn’t prevent it, either.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]This terrible, one-sided game seemed to last seven hours. The Dallas cowboy-boot stomping of the overmatched Rams was so thorough and extreme, Fisher cleared the locker room for a quick coaches-players meeting.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]I hope Fisher remembered to remind the Rams that they’d be playing a game against the 49ers on Thursday at the Edward Jones Dome, and that they should arrive on time for the 7:25 p.m. kickoff.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]After what we witnessed Sunday, that would represent real progress.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]Silly me, I thought the Rams had a chance to defeat the Cowboys. Either way, I expected a close, hard-fought game.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]Instead, we got the Rams playing Florida A&M to the Cowboys’ Ohio State.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]In opening a 24-0 lead in the third quarter the Cowboys had a 310 to 43 edge in yards and a 16-1 advantage in first downs.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]At one point in the first half the Cowboys had 80 yards to the Rams’ 2.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]The Rams finished the first half with 18 yards.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]EIGHTEEN.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]The Mike Martz offenses used to gain 18 yards before the rehearsal of the national anthem.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]“Just a very poor performance on our part today,” Bradford said.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]“Pretty much, we had a flat start,” rookie wide receiver Tavon Austin said.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]“It sucked, and we hated every minute of it,” defensive end Chris Long said.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]This was an all-inclusive failure: head coach Fisher, coordinators Brian Schottenheimer and Tim Walton, special teams coach John Fassel and of course the surprisingly soft players.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]I didn’t buy into all of the talk about how we’d been privileged to observe some spectacular achievement because the Rams got through the first two games without giving up a sack. Big deal.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]The levee broke Sunday. Bradford took a beating, which at least gave the smiling anti-Sam loons a positive takeaway from the game.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]Schotteneimer took a beating, too. In the coaching strategy matchup, Dallas defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin – who may be older than Willie Nelson – made the Rams’ offense look timid and feeble.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]Schottenheimer orders up a lot of passes – the Rams are averaging 50 attempts a game – but too many are dinky, harmless little lobs that pose no threat.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]When Schotty and Sam go into the check-down mode, the Rams are easier to shut down than Highway 40 in St. Louis. I guess both are in a perpetual state of construction. And in each instance the speed limit is reduced.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]Schottenheimer has displayed no acumen in finding ways to get the cat-quick Austin out in space to create Madden-game excitement.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]Schottenheimer continues calling the same plays for Austin: a predictable teeny-weeny pass in the flat, or a wide receiver screen that’s unique in that it features no blocking.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]Seeing that opposing-team coaches study video, they already know when these plays are coming. That probably explains why it seems like 37 tacklers are waiting to bury Austin every time. But the Schottyball Rams keep going back to these worthless plays, inexplicably believing that they’re onto something magical here.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]A defense made Rams tight end Jared Cook all but vanish from sight for the second consecutive week, but there’s apparently nothing in the playbook to burn the defense for overplaying Cook.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]The Rams are passing the ball more often than any offense in franchise history. And all we’ve heard about is the improved speed and enhanced playmaking skill.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]But the Rams don’t even try to stretch the field.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]You can’t do it if you can’t stretch the offensive coordinator’s imagination.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]And has anyone seen the Rams’ running game? I didn’t think any of these kids would become the next Marshall Faulk. I just didn’t think they’d become the next June Henley.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]And, of course, the coaches declined to go to a no-huddle offense until a few minutes into the fourth quarter.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]Pssst: The game was over, gentlemen. Too late.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]I don’t understand this. The no-huddle has enlivened the offense, and this group was sleepy on Sunday ... so why not amp it up, go at a faster tempo to generate some energy, and maybe slow those manic Cowboys pass rushers?[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]On the other side...[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]The front seven of the Rams’ defense was bullied without summoning much resistance, with the physical Cowboys opening massive holes that made RB DeMarco Murray look like Emmitt Smith and Tony Dorsett.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]I have no idea what Walton, the first-year defensive coordinator, is doing with the Rams’ defense. But I can tell you this: If the plan is to leave receivers completely unattended to roam free and pad their statistics and get paid, the strategy is working beautifully.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]In the first three games Carson Palmer, Matt Ryan and Tony Romo have undressed the Rams’ defense for 76 completions in 107 attempts (71 percent) for 911 yards, seven touchdown passes and one interception. That’s a passer rating of 114.6.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]The Rams’ special teams were a joke again; the dumbo penalties continue and no one does a damned thing about it.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]Here’s what bugs me the most ...[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]There’s never an excuse for being flat, but how does the league’s youngest team come into the third week with a 1-1 record and utterly fail to compete?[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]This wasn’t Dec. 22 — near the end of a brutally bad season when a lot of losing teams just play out the string. This was Sept. 22, and the Rams had a chance to go 2-1, and build momentum heading into Thursday’s home game against the 49ers.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]Moreover, the Rams were playing at AT&T Stadium, the monument to excess that appeals to players’ vanity and desire to perform on the largest and most glamorous venue in American professional sports. The NFL’s celebrity culture was developed in Dallas, then enhanced in Dallas; this is the biggest regular-season stage you could ask for.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]And the Rams don’t even post up?[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]I thought this kind of junk was a thing of the past. I picked the Rams to go 7-9 this season, so obviously I believed they’d have some lousy days. But this wasn’t just a bad day, or bad football.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]This was the kind of awful, joy-draining, spirit-sinking, unacceptable stinking heap of a mess that was common when Scott Linehan and Steve Spagnuolo coached the Rams.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]The Rams sure stepped in it Sunday.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]And took a big step back, too.[/SIZE]
Click to expand...
 
Ultimately the blame lands with Fisher. He's in charge of the coordinators of the offense and the defense and the special teams. When you can repeatedly commit penalties on punt returns, I ask you what is the point in having a guy that can take it to the house. This team is the youngest in the NFL and perhaps the youngest of all time. These guys require extra coaching to know what all of the rules are so that they don't make stupid penalties. Again ultimately it all goes to coaching and preparation and flows back to Fisher.

 
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So... do you fire Schotty and go back into the cycle of "it's the new coordinator who is holding Bradford back" or do you ride it out one more year in hopes that consistency and cohesion as a unit sprinkles magic football pixie dust on them all and keeps.... THAT... from happening?

 
Words can not express my disappointment with my Rams this year. I feel a bit like Red from shawshank .....

Red: Let me tell you something my friend. Hope is a dangerous thing. Hope can drive a man insane.

Not even sure if I'm more surpried by our lack of ability to use the new "weapons" on offense or how poorly the D has played. Probably the D I guess as that showed promise last year.... Really thought Fisher was a better coach then this.

 
dkp993 said:
Words can not express my disappointment with my Rams this year. I feel a bit like Red from shawshank .....

Red: Let me tell you something my friend. Hope is a dangerous thing. Hope can drive a man insane.

Not even sure if I'm more surpried by our lack of ability to use the new "weapons" on offense or how poorly the D has played. Probably the D I guess as that showed promise last year.... Really thought Fisher was a better coach then this.
Click to expand...
Perhaps the new weapons aren't as good as everyone thought they would be.
 
jurb26 said:
dkp993 said:
Words can not express my disappointment with my Rams this year. I feel a bit like Red from shawshank .....

Red: Let me tell you something my friend. Hope is a dangerous thing. Hope can drive a man insane.

Not even sure if I'm more surpried by our lack of ability to use the new "weapons" on offense or how poorly the D has played. Probably the D I guess as that showed promise last year.... Really thought Fisher was a better coach then this.
Click to expand...
Perhaps the new weapons aren't as good as everyone thought they would be.
Click to expand...
How would we know?

 
Junior McSpiffy said:
jurb26 said:
dkp993 said:
Words can not express my disappointment with my Rams this year. I feel a bit like Red from shawshank .....

Red: Let me tell you something my friend. Hope is a dangerous thing. Hope can drive a man insane.

Not even sure if I'm more surpried by our lack of ability to use the new "weapons" on offense or how poorly the D has played. Probably the D I guess as that showed promise last year.... Really thought Fisher was a better coach then this.
Click to expand...
Perhaps the new weapons aren't as good as everyone thought they would be.
Click to expand...
How would we know?
Click to expand...
That's exactly it. Pead and Richardson aren't getting it done. Let's see what Stacy or Cunningham can do. Quick is a joke. Pettis is a chump. But let's run short button hooks to Austin. Oh, and forget Cook even exists. I like Ogeltree on D. He's the lone bright spot I see right now of the rookies....

 
I refuse to ragequit football. So I'm taking a few days to let the rage subside. At that point, I'll know if I am about to calmquit football.

 
Sam Bradford might be worst starter in the NFL - He is in the Blaine Gabbert, Brandon Weeden, Josh Freeman conversation right now.

If he didn't miss that wide open TD in the first half, whole game might've been a little different.

 
Where do you start?

It's hard but the Rams have no run game.....you need something. They are not blocking, they need to revamp that line.

Bradford is not as good as the spot he was drafted, never will be but I think he could win with the correct players around him, he needs support.

Part of the problem is the Rams have been rebuilding now for years, it's frustrating and hard to trust anything your team does because of so many bad decisions.

I'm not telling you guys anything new, but I understand as I live in Detroit. The Lions are out of the playoff hunt by Thanksgiving just about every single year and it's ridiculous to talk about what the team's needs are for next year before the season is even 1/4 of the way over. Detroit appears to not be in that situation this year but they still have made a ton of mistakes even post Millen and I am not sold on their coach. His clock management is subpar.

Anyway, good luck.

 
Right now, Bradford's ceiling looks to be Andy Dalton, which isn't that inspiring. He needs the team to carry him, which is the opposite of what elite QBs need. I think what's most disappointing is the accuracy woes--supposedly his great strength--since year one. I want to see him move in the pocket, throw further than 10 yards downfield, and command the offense.

One of the things that mystifies me is why Pettis lines up as the #2. Sure, Bradford loves him, but he gets separation once a game. His bread and butter is 5-yards-and-fall. Meanwhile, Brian Quick sits on the sidelines. Aren't we a young team that's supposed to be developing its young talent? Put Quick out there every snap. Use his height and strength. Will he make mistakes? Sure. But he at least has upside, and can make plays that Pettis can't. Let him learn/improve on the job. Am I crazy?

And our running game..everything is up the middle. Gimme a sweep. Get players in space. DO something with this talent.

 
i think the rams two first picks in the 2014 draft, as of today, would be #6 and #14.

early thoughts, it will be interesting to see where WAS finishes, they don't have an easy schedule to conclude the season...

the below immediate following part addresses the recommendations of some on a rams mssg board i frequent, for using one of the two first round picks on a LB.

i take it there are some excellent LBs that could be available with one of the two first round picks...

here is the question... the rams already have laurinaitis and ogletree, defenses don't have all three LBs on the field in nickel situations... and the way the league is evolving, defenses sometimes use nickel personnel more than 50% of the time.

van noy sounds very talented... but would he sit on third down... ogletree and van noy would be incredibly athletic, more so than a duo comprised with either plus Laurinaitis, but hard to see the vet sitting, he calls the defense.

don't see it.

i'm not sure STL NEEDS a WR like watkins, evans or lee as much as other positions... but I could see that a lot more...

don't expect a high pick on a QB, but any time after the first (preferably third or fourth), rams have to have a developmental/depth upgrade at the position...

on the OL, matthews would be a great pick, depending on how bad WAS finishes, still probably a long shot to get the consensus top LT (and like the long brothers meeting sunday, hall of fame bloodlines)... those guys tend to go fast (bridgewater probable #1, clowney looked like a lock to be #1 or #2 before the season started, but he has been banged up, had his effort questioned and not dominated generally - he will destroy the combine, though)...

not sure what other OL would be good intersections of need and value with either of the two first rounders? but the rams need to come out of the draft with at least one tackle and one guard (good guards can be gotten later, sounds like the rams would have drafted warford if ogletree had been off the board at 1.30, that would have been a good pick and definitely filled a need and been a great piece for the future... he went in the third?)... RT barksdale has played well, which reduces the urgency somewhat... some think LT/RT saffold could be an elite guard, but he is expected to seek a LT contract in free agency, young, potentially talented ones don't hit free agency often, but than he has been hurt a lot, so teams won't break the bank for him... wells and dahl are on the wrong side of 30, but for the sake of continuity, it would be tough to replace both at the same time... it would be nice to get the fourth round center/guard jones some snaps this season, to better evaluate if he could be a viable starter at either interior OL position... the rams have seemed sketchy in pass blocking and protection since orlando pace hit the wall (a key piece in the GSOT, with warner, faulk, holt and bruce)... they do look better now that they are run blocking more, with fisher/schotty's renewed dedication to the run)... after a somewhat mixed start, jake long is playing at a consistently high level and worth the investment at this point... he has broken down a few times in recent years, though... they need to groom a younger player, and, like QB, upgrade depth at the position.

with cook and kendricks, TE not an obvious need (and a lot of cap money committed to cook)...

fisher was known to take RBs with some high picks during his tenure, not just eddie george, but lendale white, chris johnson and chris henry were taken in three consecutive years, i think (a first and two second rounders?)... stacy looks like a keeper, would seastrunk or gordon (not a lock to turn pro anyways) be upgrades? or outstanding complements, and depth... these days, just about everybody except for MIN has two RBs (if not three, like NO), RB is a brutal, violent position, and stacy is a physical, hard charging runner who's style invites a lot of collisions... the above RBs would certainly be upgrades over richardson... with so many holes on the team, a pick like this might be a luxury, and not likely until the second round at the earliest, probably later (they got stacy in the fifth?)...

on defense, finnegan is a shell of himself (they HAVE to restructure his contract next year, if not cut him), jenkins imo hasn't played as well as his rookie season (though he may have been misused in off coverage, and is more natural in press coverage... trumaine johnson flashes athleticism, but has gotten picked on this season for a reason... he came in as a college tweener safety/CB, and if he developes has nice size for a CB, but does he project to have starter caliber coverage ability and talent from the CB position (he flashed ball skills in college, and might just be a natural safety - but not sure if his run instincts and tackling ability would be good enough to play there in the NFL?)... the fifth round rookie from miami has done nothing. STL needs a CB, first round a possibility if value intersection is right at one of the prospective spots, good ones can always be found in the second, possibly later, but than talent starts to thin out...

DT a possibility, not sure langford is any better than average, if that, he seems to make too much to justify his contract... he isn't a liability and massive cap drain like finnegan, so maybe he hangs around for another year... but STL could be a blue chip, elite DT away from having the best, or one of the best DLs in the league (they already are one of the best, so it could propel them to the top)... it could be the kind of move that makes the back seven better, as well, especially the secondary... there are some good ones in the first round...

last but not least... safety... imo, THE biggest need, along with OL (really the biggest need period - though i am starting to warm to the idea of a blue chip WR to help bradford take a decisive next step in his development)... MAYBE mcdonald will turn into a good player, but he is better in the box, imo, he will never be a complete, two way player like blue chip rookies vaccaro and reid (based on his work earlier in the season, before breaking his leg)... he may always be suspect in coverage and the type of safety that needs to be protected and schemed around (and other teams scheme against)... even at his forte, in run support, he appears at times to have questionable run/pass instincts, ability to read keys and diagnose, takes bad angles and plays out of control... alabama safety dixon is the consensus top safety, and would be a huge addition... look at it this way, the rams are trying to build the offense and defense incrementally... with three levels on defense, fisher added brockers in the draft (and hayes in free agency) to long and quinn on DL in 2012... at LB, dunbar was a solid 2012 free agent, and the 2013 draft brought ogletree, who has star potential, added to an above average (if not super star) laurinaitis... in the secondary, at CB in 2012, finnegan added in free agency, jenkins and johnson in draft... first two supposed to be core players, looked good last year, less so in 2013... but at safety, STL muddled through with vets last year (mikell was quite serviceable, but the cap precluded retaining him)... this season, there were still too many holes on both sides of the roster to address the position (even though it was the weakest one on the team) before the third round... maybe that is above average pedigree for a safety, but as noted above with mcdonald, he is far from a lock to be a better than average NFL player... it is the one position on defense (maybe CB, too, with the corp regressing big time this season) where the defense doesn't have a blue chip player (this could also be said about several positions on offense)... blown coverages have been an achilles heel for the rams, not just in the two year fisher era, but for longer than i can remember... again, mikell was decent, and mcdonald may turn out to be (mcdonald has the physical talent and athleticism to be a star, with his size and 40" vertical jump, don't get me wrong, and like chris long, serial pro bowl bloodlines - but if his instincts are questionable at this stage of his career arc and trajectory, how much can they be counted on to ever reach an elite level?), but WHEN WAS THE LAST *STAR* SAFETY STL HAD?

look at how having troy polamalu helped PIT win two super bowls... the super bowl winning IND defense was bad before him and when he was out (too often after), but in bob sanders defensive player of the year campaign (unfortunately he hit too hard for his body to withstand the punishment long term), he singlehandedly lifted the colts stop unit to elite defensive numbers... how much did rodney harrison mean to NE in their super bowl win/s? look at the cowboys, who can never seem to get over the hump in the romo era, and safety has been a perpetual achilles heel for them as well... they won multiple super bowls with darren woodson (of course they had the triplets on offense, and talents at every level of the defense, like leon lett and ken norton, jr... but after he was in the league for a few years, woodson was the QB of that defense)... a blue chip safety would help the CBs... the seahawks have the top defense in the NFL (used to be the 49ers as recently as 2012, when willis and bowman were arguably the greatest ILB tandem in league history, certainly one of)... bobby wagner (who the rams could have had instead of soon to be cut pead and already cut watkins - OOF!) has pro bowl talent at MLB, the seahawks have outstanding aggegate DL talent that plays very well together within their system and scheme... of course sherman is playing as well as any CB in the league (including a still recovering revis, joe haden and patrick peterson), and is a virtual mortal lock for a well deserved all pro berth... kam chancellor is outstanding, and a pro bowl SS... but the most valuable player on the defense (maybe on the team, even with wilson, lynch and harvin) with a bullet, is earl thomas, having his best year and a defensive player of the year-type campaign (no DE/rush LB on the horizon... watt not dominating like last year, von miller and aldon smith hurt by suspension and rehab missed time)... he is by far the most irreplaceable part of the defense, it revolves around him... dixon won't be earl thomas, guys like that are maybe once or twice in a decade-type players... after DE (or an elite rush LB like von miller and aldon smith, or MLBs like ray lewis or luke kuechly), a blue chip safety is one of the most valuable chess pieces in a contemporary defense, the way the game is evolving into a passing dominated league... dixon, like vaccaro, would be able cover slot receivers, TEs and be a hammer in run support... that kind of versatility can help defend any kind of opposing offense or game plan from game to game, throughout the years/seasons... and always help within each game, in any down and distance situation, and is a massive equalizer and difference maker, the way things are trending.

if dixon not avail, not into positional reaches, not sure where later value/need intersections would be at the position? but STL needs to address the position early... of course, a vet option like BUF FS byrd a possibility in 2014 free agency, but not sure if fisher will want to break the bank for a safety, instead of using all the accumulated draft capital to develop his own? dixon would be the cherry on top of fisher and snead's three year plan defensive rebuild... :)

when your last line of defense is tantamount to the maginot line, bad things happen.

we could look at a lot of positional parallels (there are lots of ways to win super bowls, and it can be done without great safeties... but safety talent is a integral part of defending contemporary passing attacks... can't think of a lot of super bowl winners with bad defenses)... maybe it isn't a coincidence that the rams haven't had a great safety in recent memory... and haven't won a super bowl in nearly a decade and a half.

* unless there is a situation where STL has a shot at a blue chip player that fits a potential need with one of the early first round picks (matthews, dixon, watkins?), since they have traded down in the first round three times already in just the first two years of the fisher/snead-era (twice in 2012 when they had one first rounder, and traded up once and down once with the two first rounders in 2013), that is a very possible scenario.

 
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above post generated some questions (ommitted here - but in MOST cases, they can either be inferred from the context of the answers, or they can serve as standalone points)...

1 - IF everybody stays healthy (and currently unknown if saffold, wells or dahl are back - maybe three, maybe two, maybe only one... probably not zero... but say one, even with barksdale, that could leave the rams pretty thin on the OL... i might feel differently if i knew who was returning, which we will know by the 2014 draft... also if i knew what STL has in the unproven jones... no rookie drafted where he was is a slam dunk to be a competent player, though interior OL tend to fall ((warford to third)), and he was i think one of top 2-3 center prospects in the draft ((titans took one that was starting - from cal?))... are you confident that he is a reasonably good bet to be a solid starter at center or guard? if so, that would certainly reduce the need for an interior OL, and he can play either position, even played some tackle at alabama, though don't think they want him to do that as a pro), that may be right... but that hasn't worked out too well for the past more than half a decade... what happens if long breaks down again... and since he did break down several times in MIA, maybe he doesn't play at an elite level until he is 35... i don't think WAS is going to have a bad enough record to have a realistic shot at consensus top LT matthews... but if it happened, he could start at RT (could barksdale play guard, like saffold?), and be groomed as long's successor... good point about fisher liking vets, but starting LT roos was drafted by fisher and internally developed... hall of famer father bruce played under fisher at the end of his career, and he was once a rookie...
smilie1.gif
BUT, while great if it happened, imo, as noted, don't think matthews will be there unless WAS really collapses... don't know the other projected first round LT-types (i think alabama has one?), and interior OL can be taken much later in the draft, if needed...

2 - just for the record, i would never advocate positional reaches, that is how you get a roster stocked with mediocre talent at the respective position groups... i mean, you don't take a QB in the first round for a decade straight (though GB used to draft them late, and parlayed QBs like aaron brooks into draft picks) if that is the "BPA", maybe trade out of the spot (like the RGIII trade), or take another position, so sometimes need has to factor in also, it is an intersection... i haven't scouted the class of '14 much, so you can help with the value/need interesections for different junctures and positions in the draft... if it isn't an OL in the first round, than attend to it later...

3 - i hope you are right and i'm wrong about mcdonald, not wedded to the take and personnel evals aren't ego-driven, everybody gets some right and wrong... it was probably a few things... mayock saying he looked a little stiff and not as fluid or agile or with the body control and the ability to break down in space as a more elite athlete/defender... he didn't knock my socks off in the few games i saw him (i forget when he broke his leg, around week 4?)... his last year at USC reportedly not as good as the previous season (maybe scheme-related, and not as well positioned to succeed?)... i don't think scouts graded him as a blue chip talent, or he would have been drafted closer to (even if not vaccaro and reid), elam and cyprien... you can already tell vaccaro and reid are going to be pretty good players, imo, elam and cyprien have had growing pains and ups and downs as starters, but i feel more confident about their long term projection... mcdonald is murkier for me... i agree it is fortunate he had his father as an example since childhood of what it takes to be an NFL player and positional coach, and always a good sign about the work ethic... and sometimes, more reps and film study of tendencies, translates to what we call instincts... but all things equal, the top defensive players, have outstanding first step initial quickness, and are generally quickly flowing in the right direction... as an example, recall the earl thomas play when he came from deep in the secondary when the rams were driving, and nearly took clemens head off when he was attempting to run... some players have to take extra time to process information and figure out where to go, also seem slower once they see it and decide, for the signal to travel through the nerve pathways to activate the muscles and GO! with thomas (an unfair comparison, but to illustrate the point), he has phenomenal recognition, and from the time of recognition to explosively breaking on the ball it is almost instant... also, i felt mcdonald didn't look like he was playing to his timed speed when i saw him (but he was a rookie, and maybe his head was spinning with new terminology and concepts, and can play faster when the pro game slows down for him)... getting back to the point about being a hard worker, sometimes being knowledgeable, doesn't always translate to having elite instincts, which imo, is almost like a nervous system difference, and to an extent, either you have it or not, there are limits to coaching up and improvement with reps and experience (for instance, if you have seen slo mo highlights of joe montana looking at a about 5-6 separate receiving options, and possibly coming back to one or two initial reads, in a split second, is something that 99.9% of the human population could never attain, no matter how much study and practice... to not hold the defense back, even if he is better at run support than i may be projecting currently, he HAS to be at least competent in pass coverage... not that i think he is david fulcher or late roy williams, but safeties pretty much have to be complete, and have skill sets that include run support and coverage, or it is too easy for DCs to take advantage of that functional weakness... again, hope you are right...

4 - we agree on need for a safety, even if mcdonald is legit and a future above average starter that sticks for a decade... glad to see we agree on dixon... you mentioned a possible trade down... imo, that might work with higher pick, if the lower pick is about where it is now (1.14), not sure he would be avail at 1.20 or 1.25... conflicting reports, where some scouts say he is not a top half of the first round grade safety like vaccaro, but others saying he is... also, if this class is not as good at safety (i thought the '13 class was the best in several years), that could push him up... my favorite option would be matthews with first pick, but as noted, seems so unlikely unless redskins completely implode (even than not a sure thing)... assuming he is gone, and without getting greedy, if i could lock up just one of the two first round picks, i think around mid-1st, dixon would be my favorite value/need intersection of all... the nightmare scenario (if you want to see dixon land on the rams roster) is STL drafts around 1.8 and 1.16, and fisher/snead decide 1.8 is too high for dixon, and then he is gone by 1.16... i haven't scouted the other safeties yet, even dixon i know about more from scouting profiles and by reputation...

5 - initially i wasn't excited about a WR with a first round pick, because that seemed like giving up on givens or quick (not to mention making bailey less relevant), but, in the spirit of not positionally reaching and taking BPA (but also not taking QB in first round for a decade straight
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)... if watkins is 3 X the player givens or quick is, so be it... the object isn't to cling to underwhelming former picks that may be dragging down the roster now and in the future, and lamenting the waste... the object is to field the most talent on the roster at any given time, now and in the future... watkins may represent exactly that... i didn't agree with the circa millen-era lions drafting charles rogers, roy williams and BMW in first round in about as many years, neglecting OL, getting their QB hammered, who than couldn't get the ball to the WRs, effectively wasting them? the flip side is, it would have been FOOLISH to NOT draft calvin johnson, on the basis of previous busts... now he is one of the top 3-5 players in the league at any position, and after jerry rice, in the conversation with randy moss for most physically talented and athletically gifted WRs in NFL history... watkins isn't calvin johnson, but if he is instantly the rams most talented WR, and takes attention from austin and helps weaponize him and cook, that starts to look increasingly attractive...

6 - who is a comp for watkins... i heard bucky brooks use torrey smith, but another "scout" noted he is more complete, possibly far more complete, with better and more dangerous RAC skills... i take it he is smaller than the current top young WRs after the freakish calvin, in terms of length with AJ green, and length and weight with julio, dez and demaryius (factoring in elite older WRs like dre johnson and larry fitzgerald, all 6'2"-6'5" and 220-240 lb. range)... i actually haven't seen watkins, but need to start scouting him, might be pounding the table for him as much as anybody pretty soon... this makes more and more sense the more i look into it and think about it... how about evans comp - are you convinced he is fast and explosive enough to succeed at NFL level (one of the most anticipated 40 times of the combine, if he can hopefully stay healthy... crabtree was a rare WR and skill position player that could avoid it and still be drafted top 10 - he did have two record breaking campaigns at texas tech, and he played fast, or at least quick, powerful and athletic, which was his game, on film)... lastly among WRs, is marquis lee in top 3 from class of '14, and worthy of first round pick... would he instantly be best WR on rams? who would you comp him with? i get the feeling lee might be around in mid-first or later, but probably won't make it to the end of first or second round?

7 - on the van noy two down LB thing... you mentioned his safety-like coverage ability... ogletree a former safety also touted with this, that would be an awesome future nickel package at the LB position... he also sounds complete, a great tackler, and can also get after the QB... is he complete enough that he could be the heir apparent for laurinaitis at MLB some day, or is he strictly a WLB/SLB in a 4-3 (potential 3-4 skills not relevant to the rams, given fisher's preferred scheme)? that would make more sense to me, than... ogletree played inside as well as outside at georgia, and has some interesting attributes that could be tapped in the middle (if van noy was on outside), but a lot of scouts questioned if he was physical enough and good enough at shedding blocks to thrive there, and thought it wasn't a natural pro position for him, that WLB was his best fit, where he could best leverage his speed chasing ball carriers from sideline-to-sideline... but back to van noy... if two of his best traits are coverage and rush ability... and he is a two down LB (because they don't sit ogletree, of course, and probably not laurinaitis, either, though no doubt van noy would be more athletic), that means they pull him on third down in obvious pass situations... so they wouldn't be able to put his great coverage (and pass rush) skills to use? there would be times the opponent passes on first or second down, where he would help, or he could stay in on third an short, situationally and depending on down and distance... but IF he was pulled on third down, than that takes the steam out of the recommendation somewhat, on the basis of his coverage, if he isn't out there on third down... where he could cover? as noted above, though, if either he or ogletree could move to the middle at some point, than i could MAYBE see this? even than, though, it might be a luxury pick if laurinaitis is going to be on the team, starting and a three down LB for at least 3+ more years... he turns just 27 in december (signed five year extension through 2017 last year, for $41.5 million with $23.5 million guaranteed), unless he suffers from a finnegan-type implosion, don't think he is going anywhere soon. is mosley comparable to a young vilma or beason as projected slightly undersized NFL MLB, thought to be better fit at WLB, or talented enough overall and with the interchangeable skill set to succeed at either position?

* though STL has taken a lot of WRs since 2011 (a first, a second, two thirds and two fourths)...

2011 - pettis and salas (low third and mid fourth) - salas gone, pettis not a fisher/snead pick, from last spagnuolo/devaney draft
2012 - quick and givens (high second and high fourth)
2013 - austin and bailey (high first and low third)

so, not a lot of REALLY high picks... quick was a high second (so was former bust avery, i think taken ahead of desean jackson)... but the last ram WR to be taken in the first round before tavon austin, was actually torry holt in '99, the only rams super bowl year...

so taking watkins with another first rounder (two years in a row), could be a case of making up for lost time...
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also, fisher and snead have done a good overall job strengthening the team on both sides of the ball across the roster... with only a few glaring holes remaining (safety, backup QB, perhaps CB if finnegan is done), by 2014, year three of the rebuild, that is a move, taking the BPA (if that is what watkins is), that they are now in a better position to make than a few years ago... that is the good thing about competent roster building, you don't have to reach as much (not that it is ever a good idea, but bad teams have more holes, and thus more needs are dictated to them)...

taking a LT because you think you *HAVE* to have a LT is how you end up with jason smith at 1.2... though in fairness, 2009 was not a great class at the top (after stafford went 1.1 year before bradford), perhaps crabtree at 1.10 was one of the best players in top 10 (CIN RT still playing pretty well, but you don't take a RT that high... that kind of heuristic doesn't have to do with not positional reaching, but getting certain positions in the right place/round, value-wise)...

 
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Recapping the 2012 #2 pick trade:

2012:

Traded pick #2, received pick 6, 39, 2013 1st, 2014 1st.

Traded pick #6, received pick 14, 45

Traded pick 45, received pick 50, 150

2013:

Traded pick 22, received 30, 92, 198

Traded pick 198 (and Rams own pick 184), received pick 160

Putting players with the picks:

2012:

14 - Brockers DT

39 - Jenkins CB

50 - Pead RB

150 - Watkins OT (released in 2013)

2013:

30 - Ogletree LB

92 - Bailey WR

160 - Z.Stacy RB

2014:

Washington's 1st (currently pick #2)

~~~ ~~~ ~~~

So, throwing out Pead and Watkins, right now we have Brockers, Jenkins, Ogletree, Stacy, and Bailey (plus Washington's 2014 1st).

How do we think it is looking so far?

 
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Lott said:
Recapping the 2012 #2 pick trade:

2012:

Traded pick #2, received pick 6, 39, 2013 1st, 2014 1st.

Traded pick #6, received pick 14, 45

Traded pick 45, received pick 50, 150

2013:

Traded pick 22, received 30, 92, 198

Traded pick 198 (and Rams own pick 184), received pick 160

Putting players with the picks:

2012:

14 - Brockers DT

39 - Jenkins CB

50 - Pead RB

150 - Watkins OT (released in 2013)

2013:

30 - Ogletree LB

92 - Bailey WR

160 - Z.Stacy RB

2014:

Washington's 1st (currently pick #2)

~~~ ~~~ ~~~

So, throwing out Pead and Watkins, right now we have Brockers, Jenkins, Ogletree, Stacy, and Bailey (plus Washington's 2014 1st).

How do we think it is looking so far?
Click to expand...
I feel good for STL getting a high pick, but bad the way the season has gone down for WAS.

I think they packaged two sixths for the fifth used on Stacy, one of which was from the RGIII trade, so technically, we can count half of Stacy to the bounty.

Brockers and Ogletree are core defenders, Jenkins also starts, Stacy has been a revelation and Bailey started for the first time today, they are both keepers. We still need to see what kind of career RGIII has. Guessing if Shanahan could hit the reset button he would, but it could still work out for the franchise (if not for the about to be fired in a few hours, soon to be ex-HC) in the long run if he regains his 2012 ROY form in 2014 and ends up a top 5, franchise QB. That isn't a sure thing (maybe he becomes more top 10?). With the high pick, it does look to put the trade over the top for the Rams for now. Still very early, though. Hope they could trade down a little and still get LT Matthews or WR Watkins. They might get both, Mike Evans another possibility at WR, if they trade down further with one of the picks, FS Clinton-Dix would fill a big need.

If the picks are around 2 and 8-10, any prospects or positions of interest to you?

The picks are nice, but they only help if they are used well. They could have had Alshon Jeffery and Bobby Wagner instead of Quick and Pead. OOF! I was looking at recent drafts, and I'm sure all teams have similar stories, but in the 2008, 2010 & 2012 drafts, instead of taking Donnie Avey, Mardy Gilyard and Quick, they could have had DeSean Jackson, Mike Williams and Jeffery.

I didn't expect the Rams to do well with Clemens, but it is strange to see them put up the best two game stretch in a decade against IND and CHI (and earlier nearly beating SEA), than turn in a few lackluster games in a row. Just too inconsistent. The coordinators are average to bad (the DC really needs to go, but not excited about the OC, either). The team is younger and has a stronger nucleus, but it is hard to not compare our fortunes with SEA in division. Much has been made of how Long and Laurinaitis are the only players on the roster from before 2010. But isn't SEA similar, I think they also have only about two players on the roster with more than 3-4 years of tenure on their roster, so it has been almost completely overhauled, between the draft (Wilson the centerpiece), free agency (Clemons) and trade (Lynch for like a fifth, and Harvin for a first, who they haven't even needed to use yet). In the same approximate time frame, SEA has built the best team in the NFL, by lapping and running rings around STL in personnel decisions. They may not be able to keep the band together in a few years when the star caliber contracts come due, but something tells me they will do a good job of managing the cap.

One factor that has made SEA so successful is the dedication to competition. Lately I have wondered about Laurinaitis, who they signed to an extension a year or two ago. He is good. Is he great? At times, are they willing to "settle" for a good player, rather than try and upgrade to a great one. When a team has a lot of holes, I guess we need to be content with good ones at some positions for a while longer. He is only 27. Quinn may be the only Pro Bowl caliber player on either side of the ball (I think Austin can be as a returner).

 
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The "We Already Have Chris Long Reason To Not Get Clowney" Fallacy and Peter Finch

my thinking is evolving on clowney. there may be other compelling reasons to not take him if available at 1.2, if the backgound check and personal interview process confirms some of the work ethic issues...

otherwise, why should the Rams make ANY move, for ANY player, in ANY round, in ANY year or draft... to help them win the super bowl.

anything else, like saying they already have chris long, and they have a bigger hole at other positions... is the kind of wrong thinking that leads to getting jason smith at 1.2.

Peter Finch, the mad as hell and I'm not going to take it any more speech/scene from Network...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WINDtlPXmmE

[this is cross-posted from another board, in response to another poster that was critical of Fisher, and despaired how much better SEA had turned their roster over in not that much longer of a time frame - i guess that could be said about a lot of teams, but there is maybe less patience because of many (too many) previous... already we only have the draft to look forward to next year-type seasons.

the post was refreshing, maybe there is too much group think that fisher is great, and rams fans should be patient. the RGIII trade was great, but they fell into that. snead did do well with the sealed bid (maybe forcing an overbid situation).

but in the end, all that matters, is what they do with the picks. they have had some good ones (in 2011 brockers, maybe jenkins, in 2012, austin, ogletree, mcdonald, bailey, stacy, possibly barrett jones), but some bad ones (2011 - quick has disappointed, pead a full blown bust)... on balance, more good than bad... in 2014, they could have the #2 and #10 pick, possibly trade down with either, up with the #10, and possibly get clowney or matthews or watkins at #2, with a trade down (if clowney gone by definition bridgewater or top QB prospect will still be on the board) maybe matthews or watkins or evans, with the #10, maybe evans (if not watkins already), maybe trade down, safety like Clinton-Dix.

in 2012, STL emphasized quantity over quality by continuing to trade down, down, down... worked at top by getting brockers at 1.14 instead of 1.6, got burned by getting pead instead of bobby wagner by making too cute of a three pick move down in mid-second, just for a fifth they wasted on ro watkins. OOF!

in 2013 the rams balanced quantity and quality, evidenced by trading up for skill position weapons austin and stacy, as well as trading down to get ogletree (which i think netted bailey in the late third after using their own third for mcdonald earlier in that round)...

in 2014, they need to emphasize quality, blue chip, elite physical specimens and athletic phenoms, best in class, best in position, important positions, difference makers and game breakers that can be pro bowlers...

with two top 10 picks, maybe they can get two if they don't trade both or at least too far down...

there is the old maxim that you have to architect your roster to win the division (with some long range considerations, too)... SEA and SF have many pro bowlers, the rams have one in quinn... if clowney is better than long, and has much higher upside, sort out what to do with long later... move him to DT... it is true he is very good, or was (not great this year, lot of pressures, but not as good sack numbers as previous seasons, unclear if he is slowing down a little if not hitting the wall hard at 28)... if he can still play at a high level, they will find a way to get their best DL on the field in run and pass situations... if not in a year or two, maybe STL can take the same stance with him, as some are suggesting they do with bradford... what is fair on offense is on defense... long makes $10 million plus (so does laurinaitis?), so maybe in future he may need to consider restructuring if production is not matching performance, or maybe STL even trades or releases him in a few years if clowney is as good as advertised...

laurinaitis was a player that the post made me think of most, for whatever season (and fisher - with more good than bad seasons, but a lot of middling seasons, he has a lot of good will, but should he (?), and is he what the organization needs to get to the promised land, there have been missteps in free agency, and if he is such a great judge of talent, why are the coordinators questioned so much?)... laurinaitis is good, but TSL has a talent gap (severe in some cases) at MLB/ILB relative to rest of division (wagner more athletic and talented with similar pedigree, SF and ARI each have TWO ILBs better, with willis and bowman probably best inside LB tandem ever, never needing to leave the field in any down and distance situation, and washington and danby, also incredibly athletic with the versatilirt and ability to run, hit, blitz and cover with ball skills like mutant DL/LB/DB hybrids)... do the rams just keep trotting out laurinitis and eat the positional talent and athleticism deficit 6 X every year (nearly half the season)? just because he is "pretty good"... a "leader" and "high character type" (not knocking these traits and attributes, but there can be leaders at different positions, maybe clinton dix, while not as talented, could be the rams earl thomas or darren woodson and QB of the defense)... and we have "bigger holes elsewhere"? maybe laurinaitis, like long, should be asked the same hard questions others want bradford to be asked, in the interim? think of the seahawks culture of competition... a lot of teams wouldn't even have DRAFTED wilson where they did, but they also might not have given him a shot to start... maybe a lot of teams after paying want to "get their moneys worth" (ARI slow to recognize kevin kolb was not the answer and it cost whisenhunt his job), and would have said, matt flynn is our guy... like the rams, the seahawks also have only two players from 3-4 year ago, and have also almost completely churned and turned over roster. they have just been a lot better at it than STL (in fairness, SEA has had more than two years, so fisher and snead shouldn't be blamed for mistakes make by previous regimes like spagnuolo and devaney)... WWCD (what would carroll do) would he muddle through with a pretty good but not great MLB? he had LBs already, but he used a mid-second, not an insignificant investment of draft resources (laurinaitis himself high second).

to tie that back in to the above... what if STL does have bigger holes (like safety, or guard)... what if they end up paying long a lot if he converts to DT, to accomodate clowney at DE?

turn the thought process around. if background check vetting leads to a green light, what if quinn and clowney give the rams one of the greatest sets of DE bookends in NFL history, and lead them to the playoffs? in retrospect, the previous concerns would seem mundane and pedestrian by comparison.

 
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cross-posted from the draft thread...

the team has said bradford is their QB. this tends to lead to contentious debates which have begun to bore me, and i don't want to pursue it in this thread. there are other rams and bradford threads. suffice it to say, fisher himself said the two main reasons he came was the presence of bradford, and the 1.2 pick in the 2012 draft (an unsaid reason may be that he coveted more control over operations and personnel than he was promised in MIA?). bradford advocates point to seeming improvement in his six full games. but this too is predictably split, and some detractors heatedly say you are stupid to think that. which is why i don't want to get in the muck and predictably drag the thread through the mud. if the rams extend bradford, it is another way to make his contract more cap friendly. contracts like finnegan's are clearly worse yet they aren't talked about as much. in a carefully orchestrated and meticulously planned and organized multi-year rebuild, i don't see fisher doing what would amount to yanking on the emergency brake going full speed on the freeway. what if they get a manziel, and he bombs. OOPS. that sets the team back 2-3 years. than they can try again, but maybe the replacement bombs. OOPS. other people are down on him, but there is nothing to suggest fisher and snead are, and in fact there is plenty of evidence to the contrary, where they have very vocally and publicly supported him, saying he is the guy next year (with no qualifiers like - if he takes a pay cut). of course, if he is hurt again, all bets are off, which is why i do endorse an upgraded depth/developmental prospect at the position (see below).

if they finish the season at #2, i think they would look to trade down to about 1.4-1.6 (maybe add a 2nd plus a third or another pick next year, not a first). imo the positional value lines up best at LT and WR (matthews or watkins).

a quick note about trading down. NE and belichick have long been praised for flipping picks to stockpile second rounders (when they have used occasional high firsts, they have nailed them with defensive stalwarts like richard seymour and jerod mayo). that is a sweet spot value wise. WRs like desean jackson and alshon jeffery have been among the best WRs in their classes, but came at a reduced price. third round QB russell wilson is a poster boy for this kind of value, but kaepernick was also a second. gronk was a second. rookie RBs bernard, bell, ball and lacy went in the second. randall cobb was a second. the importance of this, is that with the changed landscape with the new CBA, there has been a shift in paying top end rookies to paying top end free agents (this was intended). so it is almost essential to hit on some good non-first round picks, which makes for a healthier cap situation. those that consistently do this best (and the rams don't have a lot to show for three second rounders in 2012 (jenkins may just be an average CB, quick may be a bust, and pead defeinitely is a bust - though on balance, they have more good picks than bad, and i like the 2013 draft a lot more), will be at an advantage and positioned to be players in the free agent market. or in the case of SEA, with so many cheap stars (also sherman, earl thomas, bobby wagner, marshawn lynch only cost a fifth rounder), they were able to trade a first round pick for pro bowl caliber WR percy harvin, and extend him to a top 5 WR contract. he didn't pay off this year, but he is still only like 25? bradford is expected to be extended at some point, though there is debate on what terms and the timing. finnegan is the worst contract on the team by far and needs to be off the books. i think chris long and laurinaitis at $10 million each are questionable, long didn't seem to play as well this year. he is only 28, and may have been dealing with a hip injury.

by trading down from the original RGIII pick, and continuing to do so, they are following this template. i think they are building the team the right way. they cut off a lot of flab from underperforming players, gutted it, and have had the youngest team in the league a few years in a row (hard to remember, but just a few years ago, the rams were one of the oldest teams in the league, besides being 15-65 from 2005-2009, that was a pretty dire and hopeless predicament that fisher and snead had to extricate the team from). there are growing pains, like dumb penalties, assignment mistakes, drops, etc. and they can still be maddeningly inconsistent (easily throttling IND, CHI and NO, nearly beating SEA, but getting thumped by DAL and SF twice). but they seem to be heading in the right direction. there was no such feeling of hope when martz nosedived a super bowl juggernaut straight into the ground, or with the regimes of linehan and spagnuolo. certainly the RGIII trade has been a windfall. perhaps a less established and secure HC would be more impatient, but i think he had a three year plan and is on target (bradford's torn ACL was setback, but hopefully a temporary one). of course, it is a challenge playing in the NFC West, the best division in the NFL, so they have to have a good plan to excel with such withering, relentless competition.

but i digress.

the case for LT jake matthews - saffold expected to get too rich an offer in free agency to be retained, barksdale has played well at RT, but he could be a swing tackle (or maybe they could try him at guard like saffold?). matthews has played RT (when 2012 1.2 pick luke joeckle was LT at texas A&M) and LT, so he could start on the right side, and be the eventual successor for jake long, who is nearing 30, and was hurt a few times in MIA. he is a good run blocker. fisher coached his father for many years. fisher inherited chris long, but added rookie SS TJ mcdonald with the earlier of two thirds, who has great NFL bloodlines. the matthews family has unbelievable, off-the-charts bloodlines and football character. he would protect their investment in the QB, and enhance the value of first rounder austin, etc. there is a school of thought that fisher has a rigid rule against taking OL in the first round. it is true he hasn't in 18 years (between HOU, TEN and STL), but just this year, he reportedly would have taken guard larry warford if ogletree had been off the board at 1.30. michael roos was a high second rounder. and the three times he had a top 10 pick, he had other more pressing needs (took mcnair, VY and pacman - not sure if he had final decision, it may have been floyd reese?). he also had OL like matthews and munchak that were hall of famers and played for a decade or two, so he didn't have the need to draft OL like most teams with mere mortal OL. in other words, i think the pattern which looks good at first could be more flukey than anything else, the result of other factors and a case of some reading too much into this.

the case for sammy watkins - the rams hope in year three of the fisher/snead rebuild blueprint, some good things are going to start coming together. if they get the 1.2 pick, that was a complete gift and totally unexpected at the time. the point being, they might not be in a position to add a blue chip, elite talent at an impact position (like LT or WR, possibly DE?) again for a while. if you look at the rosters of SEA and SF in the division, they both have multiple pro bowlers. the rams probably have one pro bowl caliber talent, in robert quinn, who won't get the publicity to win defensive player of the year, but is having the kind of season to merit more consideration than he is probably getting. tavon austin may have future pro bowl ability as a returner? with so many holes in 2012, they repeatedly traded down. in 2013, they employed a mix (up for austin and stacy, down for ogletree). this year, with a 1.2 and currently around 1.14 (?), they could maneuver a little (again, at the top, down to about 1.4-1.6), and potentially emerge with multiple blue chip players. it is time they start adding quality, and not just quantity. watkins has an interesting resume. for whatever reason, the rams haven't demonstrated an aptitude for developing young WRs (see brian quick, chris givens, austin started slow, bailey is just beginning to make an impact). watkins was arguably the most collegiate ready prep WR EVER. he is the only WR to ever earn AP first team All American as a true freshman (and just fourth at any position - others were luminaries herschel walker, marshall faulk and adrian peterson). he looks like he could hit the ground running. while he isn't in julio jones class as a prospect, and has good but lacks great size at about 6'1" 205, he has sprinter speed, runs good routes, has good hands and is an explosive RAC weapon. STL doesn't have a alpha dog WR1-type on their roster. quick is that physically, but imo is lacking something, and they can't wait around for years to see if the light comes on. pettis is a plodder that lacks explosion and struggles to get open (how many would want him starting for their team?). givens has regressed, and doesn't have a well rounded skill set, may always be best as a situational deep threat. austin is promising, but watkins could bring things to the table as a boundary and red zone weapon that austin can't, so they could be complementary. bailey has starter talent, and reminds me of a love child between hines ward and derrick mason, but he can't match watkins as a prospect. receiving weapons of watkins and bailey on the outside, austin on the inside or coming out of the backfield and TE cook would put tremendous pressure on defenses. mike evans and watkins are my two favorite WRs in the draft, and evans could be avail later. i'll return to him.

if they don't trade down, and he is sitting there at 1.2, clowney could be tempting (i just don't think as tempting as trade down if the phone is ringing - in the old CBA, with a weak class, they were forced to draft jason smith, but it is cheaper to trade up, and there are a few QB prospects and needy teams that should be conducive to a trade). fisher drafted jevon kearse, another physical specimen and athletic phenom capable of running a legit 4.4, who terrorized QBs and seemed destined for the hall of fame until chronic foot injuries sadly derailed his career (he could have been an all time great). i have concerns about his motor, and fisher already had a bad experience with DT haynesworth. but there is some appeal. i myself said it didn't make sense with quinn and long already on the roster. but quinn is signed through 2014. and i think long's contract wouldn't present a problem to make a move after 2014? i do think they value his leadership, but his play has seemed to slip this year, and he makes a lot of money. this in't as exciting an option as LT or WR to me for reasons outlined above. BUT, if clowney realized his potential (maybe by fisher lighting a fire under him), with quinn, that would be easily the top set of DE bookends in the league (and potentially one of the best ever, just looking at them athletically). i think it is important to balance BPA (look what happens with positional reaches such as ponder) with team need (just because QB BPA in first, you don't take one a decade straight). but increasingly, i've been thinking, why not strip away all the clutter, and just make the move you think best helps you get to the super bowl. after at first being vocally against this, increasingly i am warming to the idea, and more open and receptive to the possibility that it could improve the overall team's fortunes the most?

if the rams had lost to NO, and lost out, there might have been a chance they could have had a 1.2 and 1.8 pick. than they may not have had to choose, and maybe could have traded down from 1.2 to 1-4, gotten matthews, and still gotten watkins with the second pick. now that the second pick is more in the 1.13-1.14 range, they may have to choose between LT and WR. UNLESS, mike evans were to drop, and they could add him with the earlier matthews pick. another possible permutation would be to take watkins in the 1.4-1.6 range, and there should be some good LT prospects left with the second pick... lewan, LTs from alabama, auburn, florida state? if matthews isn't compellingly better than them (i think he is more technically sound than the later trio, but they may have physical and athletic upside and could be coached up), i think watkins is a better prospect and safer projection than evans (struggled to separate last few games, though he certainly had some high profile star making performances, for instance against alabama).

what other positions? a safety like clinton-dix or interior OL like cyril richardson would be attractive, but maybe not good value there, so possibly in a trade down scenario. in fact, if they were to add a second and a third with a trade down from the 1.2, maybe they could package one of them with their own mid-second to move back into the first (sort of like MIN having three firsts this year). i don't think clinton-dix drops into the second (1.20-1.25?)... he may fall between vaccaro/reid and elam/cyprien as a prospect. richardson could go anywhere from 1.20 to the second (?), though also not sure he falls that far. the stanford guard yankey could be another interior OL target. richardson has positional flexibility, having played both OT and guard (everything but center?), so could be a starter on the inside but also a swing guard/tackle if needed (guard likely his best pro position, but maybe he could fill in on the outside in a pinch). as noted above, the rams were prepared to take guard larry warford with their 1.30 pick if ogletree had been gone. the rams did use a high fourth rounder on former alabama OL and outland trophy winner barrett jones with the expectation he is the future at center or guard. but as mentioned, saffold, who was a revelation at guard, has probably priced himself out of the rams budget. vet interior OL scott wells and harvey dahl are solid, but make a lot of money, wells has missed significant time both seasons (dahl has also missed time in 2013) and may soon be expendable due to their age. so they probably need some new blood on the inside.

another attractive and appealing thought about trading down from the 1.2 and getting an extra second and maybe a third, is they might be able to add a RB. richardson and pead don't cut it. stacy has been a revelation, but he has a very physical, punishing style (sometimes to himself) without a lot of wiggle - one reason i wasn't that high on him when he was in college - much to the detriment of my fantasy teams, but i was happily wrong in terms of real football. i think they need a complement. with the RB position increasingly viewed as commoditized and fungible, we are seeing good backs drop to the second or further (see 2013 class noted above). if they were to add a LT AND a WR like watkins or evans, it is tantalizing to think of a 1-2 RB punch with stacy and a complement like seastrunk or gordon, or double down with a hard charging bruiser like carlos hyde (eddie george, who starred for fisher, and is an ohio state alum like hyde will soon be, stated he thought he could be a super star at the next level).

between OL, WR and RB, that would have offense pretty well covered. most rams observers (people like jim thomas, bernie miklasz, jeff wagoner, etc.) would be shocked if they don't take a QB, given bradford missing large parts of two seasons, and clemens being a below average emergency starter. i'd like to see maybe a low day two or high day three pick like an aaron murray or mettenberg (could be value picks after ACL injuries). maybe the alabama QB if he falls to the third?

on defense, we already touched on safety. CB is a big need, but ideally one that could be filled in the second if not third (again, adding extra picks could fill more needs), if this is viewed as higher priority than interior OL, safety or backup RB. finnegan looks done, his play fell off a cliff despite being just 29, and he carries more than a $10 million cap figure if he is still on the roster past june. even if they restructure and he gets a severe salary haircut, it would be reckless to count on him. jenkins and trumaine johnson flash promise, but intermittently and sporadically. i think there is a good possibility this could be partly scheme-related, and the DC may in fact be on the hot seat (runblings that fisher is taking a more active role in the defensive play calling). if you break down the raw pass defense stats, they aren't pretty. they are giving up an unacceptable completion percentage to opposing QBs. they likely need a starter, not just depth (trumaine johnson could be an excellent nickel, but questionable starter). it wouldn't surprise me if they use the second first on one (maybe with another trade down scenario). i don't think there is an elite, joe haden-type prospect worthy of a top 5-10 overall pick, so we can probably safely rule that out (using the higher first on that position).

LB pops up a lot in discussions about possible draft targets of the rams, value-wise, there are some good ones (notably mack, mosley, shazier, van noy). my question is, with laurinaitis and former safety ogletree seemingly firmly entrenched in the nickel, why spend a high first rounder on an effectively two down player? a player like mack is a terror in the pass rush, so would they remove him from the field in precisely the situation he could shine in? it doesn't add up. ogletree and mack would be a nasty set of nickel LBs (like quinn and clowney would be at DE). but than do they sit laurinaitis in the nickel? he is like chris long, in that he is thought of as a cornerstone defender and overall player, as well as a respected team leader - but he may not be an elite talent, which he is being paid as. within the NFC West division, he isn't as good as wagner in SEA, and SF (willis/bowman) and ARI (washington/dansby - though karlos turns 33 this year) each have TWO ILBs better. so a player like mosley might make sense like clowney could, as an eventual successor, if he plays a situaional role initially, but is groomed to start in the middle in a year or two. i just think that very good LB prospects can be found later in the draft in future years (see ogletree - end of first), while blue chip LT and WR prospects as good as matthews and watkins are rarer, and would make more sense as investments of a high pick. free agent OLB dunbar is expected to move on, but if this is to be a two down position (again, unless they want to draft a mosley-type as heir apparent to laurinaitis), maybe the hole can be filled the same as it was with dunbar in the first place, with a competent but not bank breaking vet free agent. maybe with a lower draft pick. BTW, it has been pointed out that ogletree started outside (actually, may even have started at safety, explaining his great athleticism, coverage ability and ball skills - eerily similar resume to karlos dansby at auburn) at georgia before moving inside, so maybe HE could be the heir apparent for laurinaitis (meaning it might make more sense to add a mack or mosley-type, the latter himself could be jon beason-like and able to play inside or outside). the down side is, some scouts thought that tangling with and getting off blocks (which he would have to do as MLB) is not his strong suit, and his best fit is as a WLB-type (though STL employs left/right designations, not strong/weak side, as fisher did in TEN) where he can roam sideline-to-sideline chasing ball carriers, and best leverage his formidable speed and athleticism. the upside is, with physical maturation (already about 240-245?), coaching up and technical refinement, he could be a daryl washington-like beast as an inside presence?

while the rams are building a core of young talent, they still have a lot of holes, if not at starter, when depth is included. i don't think there is an elite DT prospect that would warrant a pick as high as the 1.2 (or 1.4-1.6 in trade down). but maybe with the second first (notre dame DT nix would make an impressive size and power tandem with brockers), or in a trade down, or possibly a day two or even three pick. i used to think kendall langford wasn't playing up to his contract, but he is solid, and i think his contract is structured in a way it will be better to keep him at least one more year, and if he continues to improve (last year he was dealing with the conversion from a 3-4 DE to 4-3 DT), maybe longer.

 
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If the Rams get 1.2, Jake Matthews has to be a lock, IMO. You pointed out his bloodlines, Bob, but let's not forget that Jeff Fisher and Bruce Matthews have a relationship dating back to when they were teammates at USC and continuing when Fisher coached Bruce Matthews in his last years with the Oilers/Titans.

 
Brady Marino said:
If the Rams get 1.2, Jake Matthews has to be a lock, IMO. You pointed out his bloodlines, Bob, but let's not forget that Jeff Fisher and Bruce Matthews have a relationship dating back to when they were teammates at USC and continuing when Fisher coached Bruce Matthews in his last years with the Oilers/Titans.
Click to expand...
thanks for the clarification, Brady Marino...I mentioned the coaching history, but forgot the personal history extended back further to being teammates at USC ( I knew they both went there, but forgot they overlapped). you don't draft an average prospect JUST because of the family history. but when they are a blue chip prospect, the family history could seal it.

a few questions, though... is it better to get matthews and evans, or watkins and lewan/one of the other highly graded LT prospects. also, trading down has worked out well for them for the most part. if they can trade down to 1.6 and add a second and third and effectively fill two or three holes for the price of one, that could be a compelling prospect they have a hard time turning down. though at 1.6, matthews would probably gone (but hopefully watkins still there, especially with clowney expected to go in addition to matthews, and multiple teams needing QBs).

 
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below article by bernie miklasz dedicated to clemens most "avid fan", who tried to use a 65 yard *RUN* by tavon austin against CHI as "evidence" that clemens was better than bradford as a *PASSER* for austin (ostensibly to cover up for an earlier post in which austin was called one of the worst football players in league history that would NEVER be able to elude NFL defenders, through the use of comparitive punt return stats - later the QB switch was seized on as excusing the grotesquely mistaken earlier post, evidently forgetting that it was made on the basis of *PUNT RETURN* stats... NEIN! :) )...

there is a school of thought that the rams were spraying the ball all over the field like the circa oilers run and shoot and falcons red gun, at which point they abruptly changed philophy and shifted gears to a run-centric approach with the bradford injury. it is mistaken. the biggest issue with the rams failed run game in their 1-3 start, obviously, was zac stacy only had one carry in that span. fisher and his coaches had already come to the realization before bradford went down that with rookie austin and new TE cook, the offense wasn't ready for the more wide open attack. so they retrenched and made the run game the focal point. some have trouble wrapping their minds around how a more run-based approach could be good for passing numbers (surely they must be mutually exclusive?). below is an excerpt from the article regarding what bradford did in the three games reflecting the switch towards the run, before the untimely injury...

"Here’s what Bradford did in his three games in the heavy, run-based offense: a 65.4 completion rate, seven touchdown passes, one interception and a passer rating of 111.1."

another excerpt comparing what clemens has done in his seven starts (bradford in six complete games and part of the CAR game had a 14/4 TD/INT ratio [[double the TDs and less INTs relative to clemens, in the same approximate time frame]] - and again, that was with the disadvantage of not having stacy in the first month)...

"And over the last seven games, the Rams’ starting quarterback ranks 17th in passer rating (78.7), with seven touchdown passes and five interceptions. That would be Clemens."

another favorite observation used to draw a negative infererence on bradford's partial season stats is that a seven game trend is meaningless, at which point similar or even better partial season outbursts are held up as "refutation" (like ex-BUF QB fitzgerald). imo, what this "analysis" neglects, is it just statistically squashes all previous situations into the same category as this one, with no appreciation for wider pattern or surrounding context, by which we might interpret the possible significance (or not) of *THIS* particular outburst. if a QBX was bad before, has a half season outburst, than is bad after, in retrospect, this pattern has seemingly borne out that the outburst was random, an aberration and outlier in nature. and that might be a reasonable conclusion to draw if the same type of outburst had happened to bradford in year two of his first four years, and was never approached before or after. here is the difference. many predicted bradford would do better, as he never had a LT as good as long, or had been surrounded by an influx of receiving weapons like top 10 overall tavon austin and 4.4 TE cook (to complement givens, pettis, quick and kendricks). for those people, the outburst wasn't unexpected, but could represent the inflection point of an ascendant curve based on superior supporting cast and surrounding talent on the OL and with his receiving weapons. again, "analysis" unable or unwilling to factor this in to its "just squash and lump all previous historical outbursts together and treat them the same, with no appreciation of contextual differences on a case by case basis that might have led to or shaped the outcome" model, is incomplete at best, and potentially flat wrong at worst.

the whole half season critique is probably a misnomer, anyways. for somebody determined to view the evidence in a glass half empty manner, what if he hadn't been injured, and finished the year with a 30/10 ratio? of course they would predictably say, instead of it was just a half season, it was *ONLY* a season (the same could be done with the critique that he has never reached .500... if he did, it could be changed to he never had a winning season, and so on). a critique based on floating boundaries and shifting demarcations, where the definition can always be changed on the fly and on a whim (like alice falling down the rabbit hole into wonderland), to "prove" the original point, he mediocre at best and terrible at worst.

i had an exchange with a detractor who was adamant that he would never say never, but (instantly contradicting himself) that he would never have the ADP upside (in a fantasy football sense) of "other guys". who the the detractor was referring to with the nebulous other guys, and how they knew what his 2014 ADP would be a season in advance were, he refused to say, even with prompting. clearly it is logically untenable to make definitive statements about what his future performance might be relative to those of others, with several key variables left blank (like trying to solve 1 + X = Y :) ).

another way i thought might be a seemingly fair and reasonable way to cut through the clutter of the often contentious and acrimonious bradford projection question, was to come up with a disprovable number (like season long TD/INT ratio). this idea came from one of noted scientific historian and theorist karl popper's central tenets of his scientific epistomology, that he called falsificationism. this put the detractor in an akward position. if he blurted out a low number like 20/15, he would be setting himself for failure is bradford maintains the torrid pace with a 30/10. but if he said 30/10, than that would be flatly contradicting himself (recall he earlier said, after never say never, that he would NEVER have the upside of those other guys, and he also had said he would alway be average and mediocre)? so he was stuck between a rock and a hard place. how did the detractor respond to the challenge of a disprovable TD/INT number? with that bastion of intellectual integrity and debating in good faith - name calling!

MY NUMBERS - 30/10, 63+% completion percentage, 7.5+ Y/A and 90+% QBR

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/columns/bernie-miklasz/miklasz-bradford-s-still-the-man-for-rams/article_b24668e2-503a-5a99-9a54-705e58771679.html

Miklasz: Bradford's still the man for Rams
• Bernie Miklasz

The Rams are 3-4 since Kellen Clemens took over as the starting quarterback in the aftermath of Sam Bradford’s season-wrecking knee injury.

Clemens has struggled with completion accuracy during his career, so I didn’t expect much. No offense to Clemens, who has admirable energy, competitiveness and intelligence.

I must declare: Clemens has played better than I anticipated. He’s done a good job of running the Rams’ redesigned, run-first offense. His teammates obviously respect him.

And Clemens has been opportunistic, striking opposing defenses for big plays when the Rams have established early momentum. That happened again Sunday in the Rams’ 27-16 ambush of the 10-win New Orleans Saints.

But I have to say, it makes me loony to hear the predictable braying that occurs when the Rams win a game.

See!

The Rams don’t need Bradford!

They’re better with Clemens at quarterback!

Granted, this is a minority view.

I confess that I’m an idiot for paying attention to it instead of just ignoring the emails and tweets. But I can’t help myself. This stuff drives me crazy.

Does anyone of sound mind really believe Clemens is responsible for the Rams’ sporadic improvement over these past seven games?

Really?

Goodness. It’s time to drop some reality-check factoid bombs on this bizarre fantasy land.

In Clemens’ seven games as the starter, the Rams ...

1. Are leading the NFL in rushing, with an average of 159 yards per game.

2. Are second in the NFL with an average of 5.2 yards per rushing attempt.

3. Have a defense that leads the league with 24 sacks.

4. Have a defense that’s second in the NFL with 11 takeaways.

5. Have a defense that’s second against the run, allowing 84 yards per game and 3.4 yards per rushing attempt.

6. Have have a defense that ranks seventh in points allowed, at 20 per game.

7. Have a defense that has nine interceptions while allowing eight touchdowns over this stretch.

And over the last seven games, the Rams’ starting quarterback ranks 17th in passer rating (78.7), with seven touchdown passes and five interceptions. That would be Clemens. And his completion rate of 55 percent over the last seven starts ranks 20th among regular NFL quarterbacks.

Before Bradford got hurt, he made three starts in the revamped offense. He thrived after the change, benefiting from the renewed emphasis on the running game.

Early in the season the young Rams weren’t ready to master a wide-open offense, so coach Jeff Fisher wisely went back to his roots. He installed Zac Stacy as the lead back and turned his offensive line loose to blast opponents with a physical style of play.

Fisher’s offenses in Tennessee always could run the ball with authority. Same with Rams offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer; over his six seasons in charge of the New York Jets’ offense, the team led the NFL in rushing. And Rams offensive line coach Paul Boudreau is good at this too; the Rams’ coaches know how to scheme a running game. That’s obvious.

Here’s what Bradford did in his three games in the heavy, run-based offense: a 65.4 completion rate, seven touchdown passes, one interception and a passer rating of 111.1.

The Rams were 2-1 in those three games. And I would have liked their chances of winning two games (Seattle and Tennessee) that they lost after Bradford was sidelined.

Bradford was well on the way to his best NFL season; at the time of his injury he was ranked 11th among quarterbacks, with a 91 passer rating, and was establishing career highs in completion percentage, touchdown-pass percentage, and for his lowest interception rate.

Did this mean that Bradford was becoming Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees or Peyton Manning?

Of course not.

Bradford still has much to prove.

Bradford might never reach the truly elite level. He might not be the game-changer, the franchise cornerstone, that the Rams hoped for when choosing him No. 1 overall in 2010.

He inherited awful circumstances that obviously stunted his growth. But instead of getting worse, Bradford was improving.

Until going down with torn knee ligaments, we saw a still-young quarterback (age 26) settling comfortably into a compatible offense that gave him more confidence and brought out his best form.

And I firmly believe Bradford would have continued in this positive direction, growing in harmony with the Rams’ young backs and receivers and the more sensible approach on offense.

I’m not saying that the Rams should stick with Bradford for the long term.

I’m not saying the Rams should forget about drafting a quarterback in 2014; cultivating a young quarterback would be a smart move for a number of reasons.

Suppose Bradford is physically compromised by the knee injury?

Suppose the Rams and Sam can’t agree to a new contract after the 2015 season?

Suppose the Rams conclude that it makes more sense to start all over again with a younger quarterback instead of investing another small fortune in Bradford?

All of these considerations are on the table.

If Bradford wants top money to stay here, then over the next couple of years he’s going to have to prove that he’s worth it.

Period.

I can’t predict what will happen to the Bradford-Rams relationship down the road.

I do know this: knee-rehab permitting, Bradford will be this team’s starting quarterback in 2014. And he deserves it.

After seeing Bradford make such obvious progress before a bad break ended his season, it makes no sense to pull the plug now — not unless the knee is so damaged that it will make Bradford a lesser quarterback.

After investing so much time and money in Bradford to get to this stage, you don’t bail out now, not when this team is so close to a breakthrough. Not when the Rams have a winning record (7-6) with increased scoring in the last 13 games started by Bradford.

That would be a dumb move. But not nearly as dimwitted as actually believing that Clemens is the better quarterback.

 
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just a reminder that the rams got five starters (with bailey now starting - that should go up to six if barrett jones starts at center or guard in the near future as expected) in the 2013 draft. it is true that STL had two firsts, but they traded away a second to get austin... there are only 22 starters, so getting more than a quarter (counting jones if he develops) from one draft is extremely impressive. in terms of numbers and talent, that has to be one of the rams best drafts since the GSOT days (fifth rounder stacy looks like an ascendant RB and arguably the top value pick in the entire draft, certainly one of, along with third rounder keenan allen)? did any other teams land as many as 5-6 starters in the NFL this year?

BTW, 2013 was the first draft with snead and fisher's team on board, which bodes very well for the upcoming draft (and that the rams could be positioned to leverage the high pick if they want to move down and generate extra picks, and still land one of probable targets matthews/watkins anyways).

 
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another look at the RGIII trade. not sure jenkins is one of the best CBs in the NFL (STL has given up a ton of passing yards this season), but his 12 pass breakups are tied-fourth in the league.

ogletree excerpt - "Moving down eight spots in the first round, St. Louis picked LB Alec Ogletree, who has started all 14 games as a rookie. His 102 tackles rank first on the team and T-24th in the NFL. He’s tied for 13th in the NFL with nine tackles for loss, and his eight pass breakups are second in the NFL among linebackers."

http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/80837/rams-got-a-haul-in-rgiii-trade

Rams got a haul in RG III trade
By Matt Willis

Less than two years ago, the Washington Redskins made a franchise-changing deal when they traded with the St. Louis Rams to get the second-overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, selecting Robert Griffin III. To get that pick, the Rams received three first-round picks and a second rounder.

Griffin and the Redskins’ performance have been broken down in detail this season. But, in the end, the Rams may have gotten better end of the deal, as they’ve turned the first three picks into seven players, including three defensive starters, and still have the Redskins 2014 first-round pick in hand.

Here’s a look at what each of those picks have become.

2012 First-Round Pick

The Rams didn’t trade down far to make the original trade, only moving down from second to sixth. But from there, the sixth pick was again traded down again, this time to the Dallas Cowboys for the 14th-overall pick and a second-round pick.

The 14th pick became defensive tackle Michael Brockers, who has 9.5 sacks in his two NFL seasons. This season, Brockers has started every game, and his 5.5 sacks are tied for seventh among all defensive tackles.

The second-round pick originally received was traded to the Bears for the pick that became Alshon Jeffery. The Rams moved down five spots in the deal, selecting running back Isaiah Pead, who has mostly contributed on special teams this year. St. Louis also picked up a fifth-rounder in the deal, tackle Rokevious Watkins, who was waived after his rookie season.

2012 Second-Round Pick

The Rams actually held on to this pick, and wisely so, as they selected cornerback Janoris Jenkins.

Jenkins has already emerged as one of the top cornerbacks in the NFL, starting all 14 games this season. He has 12 pass breakups this season, which is tied for the fourth-most in the NFL.

2013 First-Round Pick

The Rams again traded this pick (22nd overall) down, this time to the Falcons, picking up an extra third and sixth-round pick, giving up a seventh-rounder in the deal.

Moving down eight spots in the first round, St. Louis picked LB Alec Ogletree, who has started all 14 games as a rookie. His 102 tackles rank first on the team and T-24th in the NFL. He’s tied for 13th in the NFL with nine tackles for loss, and his eight pass breakups are second in the NFL among linebackers.

The third-round pick became wide receiver Stedman Bailey. He only has 10 receptions for 149 yards in his rookie season, but eight of those receptions and 118 of the yards have come in the last three games, both team highs in that span.

Most Rushing Yards
NFL Rookies This Season
Team Rush Yds
Eddie Lacy GB 1,028
Zac Stacy STL 854
Giovani Bernard CIN 653
Le'Veon Bell PIT 646

The Rams took the sixth-rounder, and packaged it with their existing sixth-rounder to move up to the fifth round to get starting RB Zac Stacy. Stacy’s 854 rushing yards this season are second among rookie running backs.

2014 First-Round Pick

The Rams greatest haul in the deal could come in the next draft, as they will receive the Redskins’ first-round pick this year, which as of right now, stands as the second-overall pick.

In Todd McShay’s first mock draft, he has them selecting Texas A&M OT Jake Matthews in that spot.

 
Bob Magaw said:
cross-posted from the draft thread...

the team has said bradford is their QB. this tends to lead to contentious debates which have begun to bore me, and i don't want to pursue it in this thread. there are other rams and bradford threads. suffice it to say, fisher himself said the two main reasons he came was the presence of bradford, and the 1.2 pick in the 2012 draft (an unsaid reason may be that he coveted more control over operations and personnel than he was promised in MIA?). bradford advocates point to seeming improvement in his six full games. but this too is predictably split, and some detractors heatedly say you are stupid to think that. which is why i don't want to get in the muck and predictably drag the thread through the mud. if the rams extend bradford, it is another way to make his contract more cap friendly. contracts like finnegan's are clearly worse yet they aren't talked about as much. in a carefully orchestrated and meticulously planned and organized multi-year rebuild, i don't see fisher doing what would amount to yanking on the emergency brake going full speed on the freeway. what if they get a manziel, and he bombs. OOPS. that sets the team back 2-3 years. than they can try again, but maybe the replacement bombs. OOPS. other people are down on him, but there is nothing to suggest fisher and snead are, and in fact there is plenty of evidence to the contrary, where they have very vocally and publicly supported him, saying he is the guy next year (with no qualifiers like - if he takes a pay cut). of course, if he is hurt again, all bets are off, which is why i do endorse an upgraded depth/developmental prospect at the position (see below).

if they finish the season at #2, i think they would look to trade down to about 1.4-1.6 (maybe add a 2nd plus a third or another pick next year, not a first). imo the positional value lines up best at LT and WR (matthews or watkins).

a quick note about trading down. NE and belichick have long been praised for flipping picks to stockpile second rounders (when they have used occasional high firsts, they have nailed them with defensive stalwarts like richard seymour and jerod mayo). that is a sweet spot value wise. WRs like desean jackson and alshon jeffery have been among the best WRs in their classes, but came at a reduced price. third round QB russell wilson is a poster boy for this kind of value, but kaepernick was also a second. gronk was a second. rookie RBs bernard, bell, ball and lacy went in the second. randall cobb was a second. the importance of this, is that with the changed landscape with the new CBA, there has been a shift in paying top end rookies to paying top end free agents (this was intended). so it is almost essential to hit on some good non-first round picks, which makes for a healthier cap situation. those that consistently do this best (and the rams don't have a lot to show for three second rounders in 2012 (jenkins may just be an average CB, quick may be a bust, and pead defeinitely is a bust - though on balance, they have more good picks than bad, and i like the 2013 draft a lot more), will be at an advantage and positioned to be players in the free agent market. or in the case of SEA, with so many cheap stars (also sherman, earl thomas, bobby wagner, marshawn lynch only cost a fifth rounder), they were able to trade a first round pick for pro bowl caliber WR percy harvin, and extend him to a top 5 WR contract. he didn't pay off this year, but he is still only like 25? bradford is expected to be extended at some point, though there is debate on what terms and the timing. finnegan is the worst contract on the team by far and needs to be off the books. i think chris long and laurinaitis at $10 million each are questionable, long didn't seem to play as well this year. he is only 28, and may have been dealing with a hip injury.

by trading down from the original RGIII pick, and continuing to do so, they are following this template. i think they are building the team the right way. they cut off a lot of flab from underperforming players, gutted it, and have had the youngest team in the league a few years in a row (hard to remember, but just a few years ago, the rams were one of the oldest teams in the league, besides being 15-65 from 2005-2009, that was a pretty dire and hopeless predicament that fisher and snead had to extricate the team from). there are growing pains, like dumb penalties, assignment mistakes, drops, etc. and they can still be maddeningly inconsistent (easily throttling IND, CHI and NO, nearly beating SEA, but getting thumped by DAL and SF twice). but they seem to be heading in the right direction. there was no such feeling of hope when martz nosedived a super bowl juggernaut straight into the ground, or with the regimes of linehan and spagnuolo. certainly the RGIII trade has been a windfall. perhaps a less established and secure HC would be more impatient, but i think he had a three year plan and is on target (bradford's torn ACL was setback, but hopefully a temporary one). of course, it is a challenge playing in the NFC West, the best division in the NFL, so they have to have a good plan to excel with such withering, relentless competition.

but i digress.

the case for LT jake matthews - saffold expected to get too rich an offer in free agency to be retained, barksdale has played well at RT, but he could be a swing tackle (or maybe they could try him at guard like saffold?). matthews has played RT (when 2012 1.2 pick luke joeckle was LT at texas A&M) and LT, so he could start on the right side, and be the eventual successor for jake long, who is nearing 30, and was hurt a few times in MIA. he is a good run blocker. fisher coached his father for many years. fisher inherited chris long, but added rookie SS TJ mcdonald with the earlier of two thirds, who has great NFL bloodlines. the matthews family has unbelievable, off-the-charts bloodlines and football character. he would protect their investment in the QB, and enhance the value of first rounder austin, etc. there is a school of thought that fisher has a rigid rule against taking OL in the first round. it is true he hasn't in 18 years (between HOU, TEN and STL), but just this year, he reportedly would have taken guard larry warford if ogletree had been off the board at 1.30. michael roos was a high second rounder. and the three times he had a top 10 pick, he had other more pressing needs (took mcnair, VY and pacman - not sure if he had final decision, it may have been floyd reese?). he also had OL like matthews and munchak that were hall of famers and played for a decade or two, so he didn't have the need to draft OL like most teams with mere mortal OL. in other words, i think the pattern which looks good at first could be more flukey than anything else, the result of other factors and a case of some reading too much into this.

the case for sammy watkins - the rams hope in year three of the fisher/snead rebuild blueprint, some good things are going to start coming together. if they get the 1.2 pick, that was a complete gift and totally unexpected at the time. the point being, they might not be in a position to add a blue chip, elite talent at an impact position (like LT or WR, possibly DE?) again for a while. if you look at the rosters of SEA and SF in the division, they both have multiple pro bowlers. the rams probably have one pro bowl caliber talent, in robert quinn, who won't get the publicity to win defensive player of the year, but is having the kind of season to merit more consideration than he is probably getting. tavon austin may have future pro bowl ability as a returner? with so many holes in 2012, they repeatedly traded down. in 2013, they employed a mix (up for austin and stacy, down for ogletree). this year, with a 1.2 and currently around 1.14 (?), they could maneuver a little (again, at the top, down to about 1.4-1.6), and potentially emerge with multiple blue chip players. it is time they start adding quality, and not just quantity. watkins has an interesting resume. for whatever reason, the rams haven't demonstrated an aptitude for developing young WRs (see brian quick, chris givens, austin started slow, bailey is just beginning to make an impact). watkins was arguably the most collegiate ready prep WR EVER. he is the only WR to ever earn AP first team All American as a true freshman (and just fourth at any position - others were luminaries herschel walker, marshall faulk and adrian peterson). he looks like he could hit the ground running. while he isn't in julio jones class as a prospect, and has good but lacks great size at about 6'1" 205, he has sprinter speed, runs good routes, has good hands and is an explosive RAC weapon. STL doesn't have a alpha dog WR1-type on their roster. quick is that physically, but imo is lacking something, and they can't wait around for years to see if the light comes on. pettis is a plodder that lacks explosion and struggles to get open (how many would want him starting for their team?). givens has regressed, and doesn't have a well rounded skill set, may always be best as a situational deep threat. austin is promising, but watkins could bring things to the table as a boundary and red zone weapon that austin can't, so they could be complementary. bailey has starter talent, and reminds me of a love child between hines ward and derrick mason, but he can't match watkins as a prospect. receiving weapons of watkins and bailey on the outside, austin on the inside or coming out of the backfield and TE cook would put tremendous pressure on defenses. mike evans and watkins are my two favorite WRs in the draft, and evans could be avail later. i'll return to him.

if they don't trade down, and he is sitting there at 1.2, clowney could be tempting (i just don't think as tempting as trade down if the phone is ringing - in the old CBA, with a weak class, they were forced to draft jason smith, but it is cheaper to trade up, and there are a few QB prospects and needy teams that should be conducive to a trade). fisher drafted jevon kearse, another physical specimen and athletic phenom capable of running a legit 4.4, who terrorized QBs and seemed destined for the hall of fame until chronic foot injuries sadly derailed his career (he could have been an all time great). i have concerns about his motor, and fisher already had a bad experience with DT haynesworth. but there is some appeal. i myself said it didn't make sense with quinn and long already on the roster. but quinn is signed through 2014. and i think long's contract wouldn't present a problem to make a move after 2014? i do think they value his leadership, but his play has seemed to slip this year, and he makes a lot of money. this in't as exciting an option as LT or WR to me for reasons outlined above. BUT, if clowney realized his potential (maybe by fisher lighting a fire under him), with quinn, that would be easily the top set of DE bookends in the league (and potentially one of the best ever, just looking at them athletically). i think it is important to balance BPA (look what happens with positional reaches such as ponder) with team need (just because QB BPA in first, you don't take one a decade straight). but increasingly, i've been thinking, why not strip away all the clutter, and just make the move you think best helps you get to the super bowl. after at first being vocally against this, increasingly i am warming to the idea, and more open and receptive to the possibility that it could improve the overall team's fortunes the most?

if the rams had lost to NO, and lost out, there might have been a chance they could have had a 1.2 and 1.8 pick. than they may not have had to choose, and maybe could have traded down from 1.2 to 1-4, gotten matthews, and still gotten watkins with the second pick. now that the second pick is more in the 1.13-1.14 range, they may have to choose between LT and WR. UNLESS, mike evans were to drop, and they could add him with the earlier matthews pick. another possible permutation would be to take watkins in the 1.4-1.6 range, and there should be some good LT prospects left with the second pick... lewan, LTs from alabama, auburn, florida state? if matthews isn't compellingly better than them (i think he is more technically sound than the later trio, but they may have physical and athletic upside and could be coached up), i think watkins is a better prospect and safer projection than evans (struggled to separate last few games, though he certainly had some high profile star making performances, for instance against alabama).

what other positions? a safety like clinton-dix or interior OL like cyril richardson would be attractive, but maybe not good value there, so possibly in a trade down scenario. in fact, if they were to add a second and a third with a trade down from the 1.2, maybe they could package one of them with their own mid-second to move back into the first (sort of like MIN having three firsts this year). i don't think clinton-dix drops into the second (1.20-1.25?)... he may fall between vaccaro/reid and elam/cyprien as a prospect. richardson could go anywhere from 1.20 to the second (?), though also not sure he falls that far. the stanford guard yankey could be another interior OL target. richardson has positional flexibility, having played both OT and guard (everything but center?), so could be a starter on the inside but also a swing guard/tackle if needed (guard likely his best pro position, but maybe he could fill in on the outside in a pinch). as noted above, the rams were prepared to take guard larry warford with their 1.30 pick if ogletree had been gone. the rams did use a high fourth rounder on former alabama OL and outland trophy winner barrett jones with the expectation he is the future at center or guard. but as mentioned, saffold, who was a revelation at guard, has probably priced himself out of the rams budget. vet interior OL scott wells and harvey dahl are solid, but make a lot of money, wells has missed significant time both seasons (dahl has also missed time in 2013) and may soon be expendable due to their age. so they probably need some new blood on the inside.

another attractive and appealing thought about trading down from the 1.2 and getting an extra second and maybe a third, is they might be able to add a RB. richardson and pead don't cut it. stacy has been a revelation, but he has a very physical, punishing style (sometimes to himself) without a lot of wiggle - one reason i wasn't that high on him when he was in college - much to the detriment of my fantasy teams, but i was happily wrong in terms of real football. i think they need a complement. with the RB position increasingly viewed as commoditized and fungible, we are seeing good backs drop to the second or further (see 2013 class noted above). if they were to add a LT AND a WR like watkins or evans, it is tantalizing to think of a 1-2 RB punch with stacy and a complement like seastrunk or gordon, or double down with a hard charging bruiser like carlos hyde (eddie george, who starred for fisher, and is an ohio state alum like hyde will soon be, stated he thought he could be a super star at the next level).

between OL, WR and RB, that would have offense pretty well covered. most rams observers (people like jim thomas, bernie miklasz, jeff wagoner, etc.) would be shocked if they don't take a QB, given bradford missing large parts of two seasons, and clemens being a below average emergency starter. i'd like to see maybe a low day two or high day three pick like an aaron murray or mettenberg (could be value picks after ACL injuries). maybe the alabama QB if he falls to the third?

on defense, we already touched on safety. CB is a big need, but ideally one that could be filled in the second if not third (again, adding extra picks could fill more needs), if this is viewed as higher priority than interior OL, safety or backup RB. finnegan looks done, his play fell off a cliff despite being just 29, and he carries more than a $10 million cap figure if he is still on the roster past june. even if they restructure and he gets a severe salary haircut, it would be reckless to count on him. jenkins and trumaine johnson flash promise, but intermittently and sporadically. i think there is a good possibility this could be partly scheme-related, and the DC may in fact be on the hot seat (runblings that fisher is taking a more active role in the defensive play calling). if you break down the raw pass defense stats, they aren't pretty. they are giving up an unacceptable completion percentage to opposing QBs. they likely need a starter, not just depth (trumaine johnson could be an excellent nickel, but questionable starter). it wouldn't surprise me if they use the second first on one (maybe with another trade down scenario). i don't think there is an elite, joe haden-type prospect worthy of a top 5-10 overall pick, so we can probably safely rule that out (using the higher first on that position).

LB pops up a lot in discussions about possible draft targets of the rams, value-wise, there are some good ones (notably mack, mosley, shazier, van noy). my question is, with laurinaitis and former safety ogletree seemingly firmly entrenched in the nickel, why spend a high first rounder on an effectively two down player? a player like mack is a terror in the pass rush, so would they remove him from the field in precisely the situation he could shine in? it doesn't add up. ogletree and mack would be a nasty set of nickel LBs (like quinn and clowney would be at DE). but than do they sit laurinaitis in the nickel? he is like chris long, in that he is thought of as a cornerstone defender and overall player, as well as a respected team leader - but he may not be an elite talent, which he is being paid as. within the NFC West division, he isn't as good as wagner in SEA, and SF (willis/bowman) and ARI (washington/dansby - though karlos turns 33 this year) each have TWO ILBs better. so a player like mosley might make sense like clowney could, as an eventual successor, if he plays a situaional role initially, but is groomed to start in the middle in a year or two. i just think that very good LB prospects can be found later in the draft in future years (see ogletree - end of first), while blue chip LT and WR prospects as good as matthews and watkins are rarer, and would make more sense as investments of a high pick. free agent OLB dunbar is expected to move on, but if this is to be a two down position (again, unless they want to draft a mosley-type as heir apparent to laurinaitis), maybe the hole can be filled the same as it was with dunbar in the first place, with a competent but not bank breaking vet free agent. maybe with a lower draft pick. BTW, it has been pointed out that ogletree started outside (actually, may even have started at safety, explaining his great athleticism, coverage ability and ball skills - eerily similar resume to karlos dansby at auburn) at georgia before moving inside, so maybe HE could be the heir apparent for laurinaitis (meaning it might make more sense to add a mack or mosley-type, the latter himself could be jon beason-like and able to play inside or outside). the down side is, some scouts thought that tangling with and getting off blocks (which he would have to do as MLB) is not his strong suit, and his best fit is as a WLB-type (though STL employs left/right designations, not strong/weak side, as fisher did in TEN) where he can roam sideline-to-sideline chasing ball carriers, and best leverage his formidable speed and athleticism. the upside is, with physical maturation (already about 240-245?), coaching up and technical refinement, he could be a daryl washington-like beast as an inside presence?

while the rams are building a core of young talent, they still have a lot of holes, if not at starter, when depth is included. i don't think there is an elite DT prospect that would warrant a pick as high as the 1.2 (or 1.4-1.6 in trade down). but maybe with the second first (notre dame DT nix would make an impressive size and power tandem with brockers), or in a trade down, or possibly a day two or even three pick. i used to think kendall langford wasn't playing up to his contract, but he is solid, and i think his contract is structured in a way it will be better to keep him at least one more year, and if he continues to improve (last year he was dealing with the conversion from a 3-4 DE to 4-3 DT), maybe longer.
Click to expand...
Has there ever been a detailed, expansive, and thorough post about one NFL team?

Kudos.

 
robert quinn had 3 sacks, giving him 18 for the season, breaking the franchise season record (kevin carter had 17 in 1999).

i think that also vaulted him over robert mathis for the league lead.

not sure if he will, but he should get serious consideration for defensive player of the year (along with SEA FS earl thomas).

 
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http://www.stltoday.com/sports/columns/bernie-miklasz/bernie-rams-have-a-new-identity/article_85438062-0da0-5684-ab4c-8835389d9aa1.html

Bernie: Rams have a new identity
• Bernie Miklasz •

"The young Rams don’t win this game earlier in the season. No, they would have blown up their chances with knucklehead penalties, a loose defense and foolish play-calling on offense.

That was before the Rams figured out who they were. That was before they established, then sharpened, a team identity. That was before they started to take firm steps.

On the surface, Sunday’s a 23-13 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers was nothing special. The Rams hunkered down, got physical and beat up on a lesser team.

Which is exactly the point: The Rams did what they were supposed to do. And that hasn’t happened enough around here in recent years, with the Rams repeatedly allowing vulnerable opponents to escape with wins.

Any team that aspires to become a consistent winner can’t stumble into traps and get taken down by lesser teams. The Rams lost such a clunker earlier this season, losing 28-21 to Tennessee at home on Nov. 3. When measured against that setback, Sunday’s methodical win over Tampa Bay was a sign of newfound maturity for the NFL’s youngest team.

“It’s all starting to come together,” Rams defensive end William Hayes said. “We were just young earlier in the season. And everybody’s playing the way they’re supposed to play right now. We get it right now. Everybody gets it.

“We know you’re going to go through growing pains. We’ve got to be able to handle that adversity and overcome it.”

The Rams redefined themselves after returning from the bye week. In their last game before the break, they were humiliated at home by San Francisco, clobbered 35-11 and getting booed off the field.

That’s when coach Jeff Fisher reshaped the offense and altered the mind-set. The Rams junked a bad-fit passing game and returned to earth, determined to win games on the ground.

“We made a change,” quarterback Kellen Clemens said. “That’s our blueprint. We’re going to run the football. We’re going to get completions when we can and play good defense.”

That’s the formula.

It’s working, with the Rams having gone 4-2 in their last six games. And in the 11 weeks since reverting to a more basic but effective approach, the Rams are 6-5. That includes a 6-2 record in games played outside the badlands of the NFC West.

The Rams averaged 45 passing attempts a game in the first four weeks, the most in the NFL. The young skill-position players weren’t right for a wide-open offense, so Fisher adjusted and had his team muscle up.

Over the last 11 contests the Rams have attempted 26 passes a game; only two NFL teams have thrown the ball fewer times over that time. And at the same time, they’re engaged in the full ground and pound mode, averaging nearly 31 rushing attempts a game.

During this transforming 11-game stretch the Rams are second in the NFL in rushing yards per game (141.) The Rams’ more anchored approach on offense has helped the the defense.

With the Rams’ offense cranking out drives, games tend to be less helter-skelter now, and the defense has more of a chance to settle in and battle under more normal circumstances.

Over the last 11 games, the Rams’ defense ranks sixth in the NFL in fewest points allowed per game (19.6). They’re second in the league in rushing defense, giving up only 91 yards a game.

By stopping the run to win so many first and second downs, the Rams’ defense is frequently putting quarterbacks in predictable passing situations. And that’s when the Rams pounce, ranking No. 2 in sacks (40) and No. 1 in takeaways (24) over the last 11 games.

“Our defense has done a great job getting us turnovers, getting us short fields,” Clemens said. “And once we can get a little bit of a lead, we can turn those two war daddies (loose) off the outside.”

Clemens was referring to Rams defensive ends Robert Quinn and Chris Long, who have combined for 25.5 sacks through 15 games.

The crazed Quinn had three more sacks Sunday to set the unofficial franchise record for most sacks (18) in a season. That was part of the defensive mayhem that included seven sacks of battered Bucs quarterback Mike Glennon.

After the game, Tampa Bay coach Greg Schiano seemed astounded by the Rams’ ability to invade and destroy his team’s pass protection. His anti-Quinn plan failed.

“I am anxious to watch the tape,” said Schiano, who compared Quinn to Lawrence Taylor earlier in the week. “I want to see how, with some of the things we had in place, why it didn’t slow them down more than it did.”

The Rams limited Tampa Bay to only 170 yards overall. On offense, the Rams fed rookie running back Zac Stacy 33 times and he fought for 104 yards.

Stacy is an important part of the new-look Rams. In his 11 games as a starter he’s rushed for 954 yards and seven touchdowns.

“When you’re playing at this level, you have to be tough,” Stacy said. “Regardless of what the situation is, what game, what opponent you are playing. It all starts up front, in the trenches. We emphasize being physical. We emphasize being dominant, week in and week out.”

Stacy came to the Rams from Vanderbilt in the SEC. That makes sense, because after trashing the early-season flag football strategy, the Rams have gone into an SEC football mode.

Be physical and run the ball.

Be physical and stop the run.

Be physical and hunt down quarterbacks.

“I tell people all the time — the SEC was a great internship for me,” Stacy said. “Just playing against all of those NFL-type bodies in that league. From my standpoint this is like playing Alabama week in and week out.”

Well, at 7-8, the Rams won’t be playing in the upcoming BCS championship.

And they’ve already been eliminated from NFL postseason contention.

That said, they have a chance to go 8-8 for the first time since 2006.

And the Rams have gotten stronger, and better. Some perspective is necessary. Remember, Fisher took over a sorry, sad-sack Rams program that had coughed up the worst five-year record (15-65) in NFL history.

In Fisher’s two seasons the Rams are 14-16-1, which represents the best two-year record by the franchise since 2005-2006. More than anything, Fisher has given the young Rams a defined form. We know who they are and what they stand for now.

“Run the football, play good defense, and then the other things happen,” Fisher said. “They stem off those things. You play good defense, you rush the passer, you get off the field on third down, and run the football, and then good things happen.”

And ultimately, winning happens."

 
The injury to Long and the presumed departure of Saffold really puts Matthews in play. At this point, I don't think the Rams would avoid taking him unless someone blew their doors off with an offer, or if they manage to get Saffold back. Considering the somewhat acrimonious offseason with him, that likely isn't a possibility.

I'm warming to the Matthews pick, though. It's really hard to fault whatever they take, considering the talent deficit we started with a few years ago. The last few drafts have established much of our defensive core, and while it's easy to say we need another DT, LB, and S, most teams have one or two weak links and starters can be found in later rounds more effectively than on offense.

Also, I'm glad to see Bailey starting. Good for him, and good for us.

 
lyon812 said:
The injury to Long and the presumed departure of Saffold really puts Matthews in play. At this point, I don't think the Rams would avoid taking him unless someone blew their doors off with an offer, or if they manage to get Saffold back. Considering the somewhat acrimonious offseason with him, that likely isn't a possibility.

I'm warming to the Matthews pick, though. It's really hard to fault whatever they take, considering the talent deficit we started with a few years ago. The last few drafts have established much of our defensive core, and while it's easy to say we need another DT, LB, and S, most teams have one or two weak links and starters can be found in later rounds more effectively than on offense.

Also, I'm glad to see Bailey starting. Good for him, and good for us.
Click to expand...
cross-posted from the draft thread, thoughts on how the long injury might impact their draft plans*...

first, addressing some good preliminary issues you have raised. there are a lot of moving parts with the rams off-season plans and priorities, between free agency and the draft. if long hadn't been injured, it might have increased the chance they let saffold walk (and maybe they still do?). they could also retain saffold, and still add a LT. they might be able to add a LT in the draft other than matthews later (like the ones from michigan, alabama, auburn and florida st.), possibly with the second, mid-first round pick, add blue chip WR watkins first, and still do all this after a trade down of a few slots. if i'm not mistaken, if they release wells and dahl, that would be about the money it would take to re-sign saffold (it isn't like he is joe thomas and is going to get more than $10 million a year, plus he has been dinged a lot). i think he is over any disappointment he may have felt at the time about adding jake long. in a recent interview, he didn't address that or pending free agency specifically, but it sounded like he was happy and realizes the rams could be building something. i also think he may realize he is potentially above average at OT, but could be special at guard, one of the best in the league. maybe demoff can construct an offer that is a compromise, and splits the difference between guard and tackle money (i do think they need to make a competitive offer, and don't assume he will extend them a home team discount, i'm just sceptical he is going to fetch a break the bank LT offer with other teams, due to his very checkered medical record in STL)?

my issue with a high, first round pick on a LB (mack or mosley-type) is they filled dunbar's spot with a free agent, possibly they could do so again. maybe re-sign him cheaply, he probably was more impressive statistically in 2012, before the arrival of ogletree (who hits like a sledghammer and has 6 FFs, i think among the league leaders, and is also around top five among LBs in pass breakups... imo, he has pro bowl potential). as long as ogletree and laurinaitis (just 27) are around, that position is almost certainly going to be a two down player. also, if they can add an extra second and/or third (let alone a first with CLE), they could have multiple seconds to find a FS (got mcdonald in the third, and he looks like a keeper and future leader of the secondary, some scouts thought he graded out like a first rounder after the 2011 season), CB or DT. with multiple thirds and/or fourths, they could look for a complementary RB to spell steal of the entire NFL draft stacy and provide injury insurance (carlos hyde or tre mason?) and upgraded QB depth/developmental prospect (previously possible second/third rounders murray and mettenberger could drop due to torn ACLs, maybe mccarron?).

some people thought bailey was just a guy, but he put up better single season numbers than michael crabtree under the same dana holgorsen "air raid" passing attack. he reminds me of a cross between hines ward/derrick mason, two other WRs that didn't set the league on fire initially, lacked elite triangle number measurables and athletic traits, but ran great routes, had great hands, were tough as nails, extremely productive and had far longer and more distinguished careers than some of the flashier contemporaries and peers in their respective draft classes. mason was a high fourth round pick (drafted in '97 by fisher in HOU), ward, like bailey, a low third round pick ('98).

* "i have seen OAK (1.4) linked with watkins, but that is just speculation, maybe informed conjecture. we could make an equally strong case for a blue chip defender like clowney or barr, or a QB.

so if STL has their heart set on watkins, it might be risky to drop below OAK. with the feared torn ACL injury to LT jake long, that could alter their draft plans, in the direction of LT matthews (if they weren't leaning that way already). ATL (1.6) and TB (1.7) might make sense as destinations for the LT. maybe the rams won't be locked into a player, and if they are OK with watkins or matthews (they might be able to get a WR like evans or LT like those from michigan, alabama, auburn and florida state later?), that increases the chance they would be comfortable sliding down 2-3 spots to about 1.5-1.6. note that if teams like OAK or ATL want to move up to 1.2 (?), it would probably be for a player like clowney (or possibly a QB in OAKs case) which would reduce the risk of losing watkins trading places with OAK, or matthews trading paces with ATL. snead came from ATL, which could facilitate a trade (they made one with the second of their first round picks in the 2013 draft).

ideally, STL could drop from 1.2 (if that spot holds through the last game) to about 1.4-1.5, add anywhere from a second and a third to maybe CLE's two firsts (i'm starting to think that would only happen if they were moving up to get bridgewater at 1.1 or 1.2, if HOU takes clowney, and even that is uncertain), than...

if they get watkins, add one of the other LTs with the mid-first (i like robinson a lot, huge upside, but he hasn't declared)... recommending this is that the gap between matthews and robinson may be less than that between watkins and evans? in fact, robinson could have higher upside than matthews, he just is raw and a bit untested in pass protection, but a dominant run blocker (which come to think of it, might be a better fit for fisher and the rams emerging smashmouth offensive identity). they might need to trade up from the mid-first for a LT of their liking, which they could pay for with one of the picks they could scoop up moving down from 1.2 to 1.4-1.5. in 2013, they mirrored the eight pick move up for austin from 1.16 to 1.8, with an eight pick move down for ogletree from 1.22 to 1.30.

if they add matthews, add evans with the mid-first. matthews has much to recommend him. while not as fast or explosive, evans has superior size to watkins and would make an excellent complement to austin and bailey. he reminds some scouts of vincent jackson, but i don't think he will run as well.

i like what is behind door number one (watkins/LT), because there are more LTs that could fit on the back end of this two pick sequence or permutation, whereas with door number two (matthews/evans), there is more risk evans is gone?

some OL thoughts with jake long injured late in the year and maybe not available to start the 2014 season (PUP list candidate?). i think his salary is guaranteed for the first two years, so wouldn't make sense to cut him.

re-sign saffold. he is more valuable to the team than center wells AND guard dahl combined. where else are they going to get an OL (in free agency or the draft) that has pro bowl guard upside, but has the athleticism and smarts to be a swing tackle, who can fill in for as long as needed while jake long recuperates. even if they do draft a LT of the future (matthews or one of the other candidates noted above), with long maybe getting prematurely old and breaking down and saffold's more natural position looking like guard, it would remove the pressure to necessarily use the first pick on one (freeing them up to take watkins), or to start them immediately. barksdale is a very solid bookend RT to long or saffold or some LT of the future. barrett jones is waiting in the wings to fill in at center or guard (if not for lis-franc foot fracture, he might have been drafted in the second or third round, one of the best interior OL in the 2012 draft after cooper and warmack, and even more positional versatility than saffold, having played every position on the line at alabama - though, like saffold, more natural on the inside). that frees the team up to release wells and dahl. wells is hurt too much anyways to justify his salary (missed the first seven of 2012, last six of 2013?), and both are approaching mid-30s with little to no upside. if they don't add a LT in the draft (if they resign saffold, jake long returns to form, they have barksdale, that gives them three), they could add an interior OL prospect like baylor guard cyril richardson (they would have taken warford if ogletree had been gone at 1.30 in the 2013 draft). i think re-signing saffold is the key, though, due to his versatility to cover for long on an interim basis and upside on the inside. this should be doable, as resigning him (and the presence of jones) makes wells and dahl expendable."

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Looks like Snead is wanting to trade the #2 pick:

http://mmqb.si.com/2013/12/30/aaron-rodgers-rob-chudzinski-monday-morning-quarterback/2/

"Snead made it clear that, with the second pick, the Rams are open for business. He’d like to get an extra first-rounder out of the deal if possible, and with a major bargaining chip like Jadeveon Clowney or Teddy Bridgewater (if the Louisville quarterback comes out, as expected) in play, he may be able to reach his goal. “There are going to be some teams that want to pick a quarterback,” said Snead, “and that could increase the value of our pick. I have told people I’m not sure I know how to draft without multiple first-round picks, so I’m always going to be interested when it comes to making sure I can continue to do that.”"

 
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