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***Official 2013 World Series Thread Red Sox v Cardinals*** (1 Viewer)

Who wins?

  • Red Sox in 7

    Votes: 4 6.9%
  • Red Sox in 6

    Votes: 20 34.5%
  • Red Sox in 5

    Votes: 7 12.1%
  • Red Sox in 4

    Votes: 3 5.2%
  • Cards in 7

    Votes: 4 6.9%
  • Cards in 6

    Votes: 17 29.3%
  • Cards in 5

    Votes: 2 3.4%
  • Cards in 4

    Votes: 1 1.7%

  • Total voters
    58
Lifelong Sox fan here. Not sure where the hate comes from. I remember when everyone hated the Yankees, which was right and just.

Can't even do a top three Red Sox players of all time. Too much love, too many great players.
Red Sox fans carped on the Yankees for a good long while for spending so much. Then Boston kicked their payroll up quite a bit and we're #2 for awhile, now they're #4. That's pretty hypocritical.

Lots of self-importance, lots of general jag-offery, lots of bandwagoners. They seem more unsufferable as a fanbase than your average fanbase, but who knows.

 
Lifelong Sox fan here. Not sure where the hate comes from. I remember when everyone hated the Yankees, which was right and just.

Can't even do a top three Red Sox players of all time. Too much love, too many great players.
Red Sox fans carped on the Yankees for a good long while for spending so much. Then Boston kicked their payroll up quite a bit and we're #2 for awhile, now they're #4. That's pretty hypocritical.

Lots of self-importance, lots of general jag-offery, lots of bandwagoners. They seem more unsufferable as a fanbase than your average fanbase, but who knows.
No, I get the hate. Lots of overblown, media-driven self-importance. I especially remember the bureaucratic change from Sullivan, Duquette, and general incompetence to savvy, crappy PR stuff. It was a tongue-in-cheek post.

 
Some of you folks sound jealous or something with all your Red Sox hatred. Every team has dooshy fans. Boston probably has more than most, but they also have a huge following of intelligent, interested, dedicated die hards that follow the team from around the globe (and that contingent is probably the largest of any fan base).

I imagine icon coming in here and acting like a fool doesnt help things though :kicksrock:
I've already admitted that I'm just jealous (of both teams).
Same here. I hate'em both, but that's mostly because these are the two best organizations in baseball.

 
Money apparently pouring in on the Red Sox to win the series... down to -150 now at Sportsbook.

I don't like seeing that and the price for the Cardinals is starting to get pretty damn tempting.

 
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I miss watching Pedro Martinez pitch.

I think the Cards have the overall advantage re: the DH, with Ortiz either having to sit or displace Napoli (and pick up a glove) in STL. A plus-hitter, even a somewhat-rusty one, is a luxury that the Cards have.

The disadvantage for STL is that they're apparently going to use Kelly over Miller, who is incredibly good at home.
I don't think the debate would be Kelly or Miller. I think it would be Lynn or Miller. And it doesn't matter, 'cause it doesn't sound like they plan to change anything. So frustrating. I hate the way they've (not) used Miller this post-season.

 
Game 1 St. Louis @ Boston Wed, Oct 23 7:30 Game 2 St. Louis @ Boston Thu, Oct 24 7:30 Game 3 Boston @ St. Louis Sat, Oct 26 7:30 Game 4 Boston @ St. Louis Sun, Oct 27 8:00Game 5 Boston @ St. Louis Mon, Oct 28 7:30 Game 6 St. Louis @ Boston Wed, Oct 30 7:30 Game 7 St. Louis @ Boston Thu, Oct 31 7:30
Same dates as the 2004 Sox/Cards Series schedule.

 
Game 1 St. Louis @ Boston Wed, Oct 23 7:30 Game 2 St. Louis @ Boston Thu, Oct 24 7:30 Game 3 Boston @ St. Louis Sat, Oct 26 7:30 Game 4 Boston @ St. Louis Sun, Oct 27 8:00Game 5 Boston @ St. Louis Mon, Oct 28 7:30 Game 6 St. Louis @ Boston Wed, Oct 30 7:30 Game 7 St. Louis @ Boston Thu, Oct 31 7:30
Same dates as the 2004 Sox/Cards Series schedule.
True, but that was a leap year.

 
Bob Sacamano said:
I miss watching Pedro Martinez pitch.

I think the Cards have the overall advantage re: the DH, with Ortiz either having to sit or displace Napoli (and pick up a glove) in STL. A plus-hitter, even a somewhat-rusty one, is a luxury that the Cards have.

The disadvantage for STL is that they're apparently going to use Kelly over Miller, who is incredibly good at home.
I don't think the debate would be Kelly or Miller. I think it would be Lynn or Miller. And it doesn't matter, 'cause it doesn't sound like they plan to change anything. So frustrating. I hate the way they've (not) used Miller this post-season.
Frustrating, indeed. I'd like to give Matheny the benefit of the doubt and think Miller must be too hurt/tired to pitch since he hasn't been used. However, he's been pitching in game simulation BP, which makes me question the notion that Miller has been shut down.

Doubly frustrating since Lynn was an effective middle reliever in 2011 and 2012, even transitioning to the pen late in 2012 as he approached his innings cap after making the All-Star team as a SP.

 
Can't remember the last time the Tigers missed the series and I genuinely liked both teams that made it anyway. The Red Sox strike 3 clucking really bugged me, but if that's my only complaint about a team that's not a bad thing.

I'm not watching though, it'd just piss me off that Detroit's not there. Maybe I'll watch the elimination game, my old man is a die hard Sawx fan, not something I want to think about now. I'm still ill.

Anyway, good luck.

 
[icon] said:
Fun article breaking down the aggression of cardinals hitters vs the patience of boston hitters:

http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2013/10/21/4860650/the-world-series-will-pit-the-patience-of-the-red-sox-against-the

Having faced Detroit prior to St Louis HAS to be a plus with regards to the Sox squaring off against Wain/Wacha.

Will be very interesting.

Cards with the edge at SP. Boston with the edge at RP, Offensive Firepower, Baserunning, and overall Defense IMO.
Not sure about offensive firepower. Boston scored 70 more runs this year, but that's with 9 hitters as opposed to 8. And like I mentioned before, I think STL's DH situation is much better than Boston's no DH situation.

Pens are close too. I think Boston holds a huge edge in terms of defense though, even w/o Iglesias.

 
[icon] said:
Fun article breaking down the aggression of cardinals hitters vs the patience of boston hitters:

http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2013/10/21/4860650/the-world-series-will-pit-the-patience-of-the-red-sox-against-the

Having faced Detroit prior to St Louis HAS to be a plus with regards to the Sox squaring off against Wain/Wacha.

Will be very interesting.

Cards with the edge at SP. Boston with the edge at RP, Offensive Firepower, Baserunning, and overall Defense IMO.
Not sure about offensive firepower. Boston scored 70 more runs this year, but that's with 9 hitters as opposed to 8. And like I mentioned before, I think STL's DH situation is much better than Boston's no DH situation.

Pens are close too. I think Boston holds a huge edge in terms of defense though, even w/o Iglesias.
I don't get this huge defensive advantage for Boston. First of all, there's Yadi. That alone is HUGE. St Louis had fewer errors and I believe turned more double plays. What am I missing here?

 
[icon] said:
Fun article breaking down the aggression of cardinals hitters vs the patience of boston hitters:

http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2013/10/21/4860650/the-world-series-will-pit-the-patience-of-the-red-sox-against-the

Having faced Detroit prior to St Louis HAS to be a plus with regards to the Sox squaring off against Wain/Wacha.

Will be very interesting.

Cards with the edge at SP. Boston with the edge at RP, Offensive Firepower, Baserunning, and overall Defense IMO.
Not sure about offensive firepower. Boston scored 70 more runs this year, but that's with 9 hitters as opposed to 8. And like I mentioned before, I think STL's DH situation is much better than Boston's no DH situation.

Pens are close too. I think Boston holds a huge edge in terms of defense though, even w/o Iglesias.
The Red Sox 117 OPS+ (league & park adjusted) is the highest team number for a decade. I'm mostly a National League guy but it doesn't _seem_ like this Boston club is the best offensive team since 2003. I suspect the horrendous offenses of Houston and the White Sox skews the formula a bit.

 
[icon] said:
Fun article breaking down the aggression of cardinals hitters vs the patience of boston hitters:

http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2013/10/21/4860650/the-world-series-will-pit-the-patience-of-the-red-sox-against-the

Having faced Detroit prior to St Louis HAS to be a plus with regards to the Sox squaring off against Wain/Wacha.

Will be very interesting.

Cards with the edge at SP. Boston with the edge at RP, Offensive Firepower, Baserunning, and overall Defense IMO.
Not sure about offensive firepower. Boston scored 70 more runs this year, but that's with 9 hitters as opposed to 8. And like I mentioned before, I think STL's DH situation is much better than Boston's no DH situation.

Pens are close too. I think Boston holds a huge edge in terms of defense though, even w/o Iglesias.
I don't get this huge defensive advantage for Boston. First of all, there's Yadi. That alone is HUGE. St Louis had fewer errors and I believe turned more double plays. What am I missing here?
I'm looking at Team UZR, but maybe it's misleading. BABIP against for both teams is comparable. :shrug:

 
[icon] said:
Fun article breaking down the aggression of cardinals hitters vs the patience of boston hitters:

http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2013/10/21/4860650/the-world-series-will-pit-the-patience-of-the-red-sox-against-the

Having faced Detroit prior to St Louis HAS to be a plus with regards to the Sox squaring off against Wain/Wacha.

Will be very interesting.

Cards with the edge at SP. Boston with the edge at RP, Offensive Firepower, Baserunning, and overall Defense IMO.
Not sure about offensive firepower. Boston scored 70 more runs this year, but that's with 9 hitters as opposed to 8. And like I mentioned before, I think STL's DH situation is much better than Boston's no DH situation.
More detail IMO from a post of mine elsewhere:

By all accounts the Red Sox featured the most potent offense in the majors this year, leading the league in runs (853), Slugging Percentage (.446) and offensive WAR (wins above replacement) at 36.6. A patient team at the plate, Boston sees more pitches per at bat than any other team. Some point to the perceived “bandbox” of Fenway, however Fenway actually had a slight negative effect on Runs (20th : 0.96) and a significant negative impact on Home Runs (23rd : 0.85).

On top of the power and patience that are hallmarks of the Red Sox offense… they also trump the Cardinals on the base-paths with more doubles, triples and nearly 3 times as many stolen bases. This will be negated somewhat by Molina behind the plate but will be very visible on balls hit into the Cardinals podding outfield trio, who boast MLB's only trio of Negative DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) ratings.. the leagues 24th best (-27) overall. I also must add that one concern for the Cardinals has to be that their SP and RPs reliance on the Fastball (1st in MLB at 63.7%) plays to the strengths of Boston as an excellent fastball hitting club.

On the other side of the diamond, the Cardinals are a very solid hitting club as well. Known for being aggressive hitters that jump on pitches early in the count, the Cardinals have posted good contact numbers and respectable power numbers, they are roughly middle of the road in WAR. A key factor will be how well Craig returns in the DH role in Boston. Given his lack of a true rehab and not having seen live pitching in some time, this could be a concern. The Cardinals lack of a running game (next to last in MLB at 45SB) makes for an interesting flip/flop in AL/NL stereotypes.

Regarding the "8 hitters vs 9 hitters", the Cardinals WAR only increases from 23.3 to 23.7 (13 shy of BOS) and their OPS rises from .733 to .758 (still 40 points shy of BOS) when removing pitchers offensive contributions (or lack thereof) from the equation.

 
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[icon] said:
Fun article breaking down the aggression of cardinals hitters vs the patience of boston hitters:

http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2013/10/21/4860650/the-world-series-will-pit-the-patience-of-the-red-sox-against-the

Having faced Detroit prior to St Louis HAS to be a plus with regards to the Sox squaring off against Wain/Wacha.

Will be very interesting.

Cards with the edge at SP. Boston with the edge at RP, Offensive Firepower, Baserunning, and overall Defense IMO.
Not sure about offensive firepower. Boston scored 70 more runs this year, but that's with 9 hitters as opposed to 8. And like I mentioned before, I think STL's DH situation is much better than Boston's no DH situation.
More detail IMO from a post of mine elsewhere:

By all accounts the Red Sox featured the most potent offense in the majors this year, leading the league in runs (853), Slugging Percentage (.446) and offensive WAR (wins above replacement) at 36.6. A patient team at the plate, Boston sees more pitches per at bat than any other team. Some point to the perceived “bandbox” of Fenway, however Fenway actually had a slight negative effect on Runs (20th : 0.96) and a significant negative impact on Home Runs (23rd : 0.85).

On top of the power and patience that are hallmarks of the Red Sox offense… they also trump the Cardinals on the base-paths with more doubles, triples and nearly 3 times as many stolen bases. This will be negated somewhat by Molina behind the plate but will be very visible on balls hit into the Cardinals podding outfield trio, who boast MLB's only trio of Negative DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) ratings.. the leagues 24th best (-27) overall. I also must add that one concern for the Cardinals has to be that their SP and RPs reliance on the Fastball (1st in MLB at 63.7%) plays to the strengths of Boston as an excellent fastball hitting club.

On the other side of the diamond, the Cardinals are a very solid hitting club as well. Known for being aggressive hitters that jump on pitches early in the count, the Cardinals have posted good contact numbers and respectable power numbers, they are roughly middle of the road in WAR. A key factor will be how well Craig returns in the DH role in Boston. Given his lack of a true rehab and not having seen live pitching in some time, this could be a concern. The Cardinals lack of a running game (next to last in MLB at 45SB) makes for an interesting flip/flop in AL/NL stereotypes.

Regarding the "8 hitters vs 9 hitters", the Cardinals WAR only increases from 23.3 to 23.7 (13 shy of BOS) and their OPS rises from .733 to .758 (still 40 points shy of BOS) when removing pitchers offensive contributions (or lack thereof) from the equation.
Sure it is. :lmao:

 
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[icon] said:
Fun article breaking down the aggression of cardinals hitters vs the patience of boston hitters:

http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2013/10/21/4860650/the-world-series-will-pit-the-patience-of-the-red-sox-against-the

Having faced Detroit prior to St Louis HAS to be a plus with regards to the Sox squaring off against Wain/Wacha.

Will be very interesting.

Cards with the edge at SP. Boston with the edge at RP, Offensive Firepower, Baserunning, and overall Defense IMO.
Not sure about offensive firepower. Boston scored 70 more runs this year, but that's with 9 hitters as opposed to 8. And like I mentioned before, I think STL's DH situation is much better than Boston's no DH situation.

Pens are close too. I think Boston holds a huge edge in terms of defense though, even w/o Iglesias.
I don't get this huge defensive advantage for Boston. First of all, there's Yadi. That alone is HUGE. St Louis had fewer errors and I believe turned more double plays. What am I missing here?
Regarding Yadi; Boston stole 123 bases at a league leading 87% clip this season. This team is not only fast, but very smart on the bases. Yadi will slow them down a little but I'm not sure I'd assume he's going to remove SB from Boston's repertoire.

Regarding Defensive Advantage... utlizing DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) as a stat here is how it shakes down positionally:

C: +12/-6 - Significant advantage to St Louis

1B: -2/10 - Measurable advantage to Boston, however SSS on the part of STL and Ortiz playing 1st in STL could change that.

2B: 15/0 - Significant advantage to Boston

SS: 8/-2 - Measurable advantage to St Louis

3B: -3/-13 - Measurable Advantage to Boston however SSS with Xander

LF: 0/-13 - Measurable Advantage to Boston

CF: 13/-10 - Huge advantage to Boston

RF: 24/-6 - Huge advantage to Boston

Team DRS comes in at 23 (2nd best) for Boston and -6 (18th best) for St Louis - Huge advantage overall for Boston.

 
[icon] said:
Fun article breaking down the aggression of cardinals hitters vs the patience of boston hitters:

http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2013/10/21/4860650/the-world-series-will-pit-the-patience-of-the-red-sox-against-the

Having faced Detroit prior to St Louis HAS to be a plus with regards to the Sox squaring off against Wain/Wacha.

Will be very interesting.

Cards with the edge at SP. Boston with the edge at RP, Offensive Firepower, Baserunning, and overall Defense IMO.
Not sure about offensive firepower. Boston scored 70 more runs this year, but that's with 9 hitters as opposed to 8. And like I mentioned before, I think STL's DH situation is much better than Boston's no DH situation.
More detail IMO from a post of mine elsewhere:

By all accounts the Red Sox featured the most potent offense in the majors this year, leading the league in runs (853), Slugging Percentage (.446) and offensive WAR (wins above replacement) at 36.6. A patient team at the plate, Boston sees more pitches per at bat than any other team. Some point to the perceived “bandbox” of Fenway, however Fenway actually had a slight negative effect on Runs (20th : 0.96) and a significant negative impact on Home Runs (23rd : 0.85).

On top of the power and patience that are hallmarks of the Red Sox offense… they also trump the Cardinals on the base-paths with more doubles, triples and nearly 3 times as many stolen bases. This will be negated somewhat by Molina behind the plate but will be very visible on balls hit into the Cardinals podding outfield trio, who boast MLB's only trio of Negative DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) ratings.. the leagues 24th best (-27) overall. I also must add that one concern for the Cardinals has to be that their SP and RPs reliance on the Fastball (1st in MLB at 63.7%) plays to the strengths of Boston as an excellent fastball hitting club.

On the other side of the diamond, the Cardinals are a very solid hitting club as well. Known for being aggressive hitters that jump on pitches early in the count, the Cardinals have posted good contact numbers and respectable power numbers, they are roughly middle of the road in WAR. A key factor will be how well Craig returns in the DH role in Boston. Given his lack of a true rehab and not having seen live pitching in some time, this could be a concern. The Cardinals lack of a running game (next to last in MLB at 45SB) makes for an interesting flip/flop in AL/NL stereotypes.

Regarding the "8 hitters vs 9 hitters", the Cardinals WAR only increases from 23.3 to 23.7 (13 shy of BOS) and their OPS rises from .733 to .758 (still 40 points shy of BOS) when removing pitchers offensive contributions (or lack thereof) from the equation.
Sure it is. :lmao:
I didn't invent the statistics but I most certainly compiled them and fleshed out the rest of the post. Twas indeed posted by me on Facebook around lunch today in a discussion among some BOS and STL fans. :shrug: No matter to me if you believe me or not.

Like I said.. I usually keep to shtick here and save my higher brow baseball chatter for elsewhere. Not claiming I'm on the level of guys like Eephus here but if you're judging me on my content here then you're allowing yourself to be misled by shtick. :yes:

 
Eephus said:
pats3in4 said:
Game 1 St. Louis @ Boston Wed, Oct 23 7:30 Game 2 St. Louis @ Boston Thu, Oct 24 7:30 Game 3 Boston @ St. Louis Sat, Oct 26 7:30 Game 4 Boston @ St. Louis Sun, Oct 27 8:00Game 5 Boston @ St. Louis Mon, Oct 28 7:30 Game 6 St. Louis @ Boston Wed, Oct 30 7:30 Game 7 St. Louis @ Boston Thu, Oct 31 7:30
Same dates as the 2004 Sox/Cards Series schedule.
True, but that was a leap year.
Does anything get by this guy?

 
Also adding that it has been pointed out elsewhere that Boston hits a lot of fly balls (35.6% or 9th in MLB) which might end up amplifying the defensive range issues of the Cardinal outfield.

 
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[icon] said:
Fun article breaking down the aggression of cardinals hitters vs the patience of boston hitters:

http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2013/10/21/4860650/the-world-series-will-pit-the-patience-of-the-red-sox-against-the

Having faced Detroit prior to St Louis HAS to be a plus with regards to the Sox squaring off against Wain/Wacha.

Will be very interesting.

Cards with the edge at SP. Boston with the edge at RP, Offensive Firepower, Baserunning, and overall Defense IMO.
Not sure about offensive firepower. Boston scored 70 more runs this year, but that's with 9 hitters as opposed to 8. And like I mentioned before, I think STL's DH situation is much better than Boston's no DH situation.
More detail IMO from a post of mine elsewhere:

By all accounts the Red Sox featured the most potent offense in the majors this year, leading the league in runs (853), Slugging Percentage (.446) and offensive WAR (wins above replacement) at 36.6. A patient team at the plate, Boston sees more pitches per at bat than any other team. Some point to the perceived “bandbox” of Fenway, however Fenway actually had a slight negative effect on Runs (20th : 0.96) and a significant negative impact on Home Runs (23rd : 0.85).

On top of the power and patience that are hallmarks of the Red Sox offense… they also trump the Cardinals on the base-paths with more doubles, triples and nearly 3 times as many stolen bases. This will be negated somewhat by Molina behind the plate but will be very visible on balls hit into the Cardinals podding outfield trio, who boast MLB's only trio of Negative DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) ratings.. the leagues 24th best (-27) overall. I also must add that one concern for the Cardinals has to be that their SP and RPs reliance on the Fastball (1st in MLB at 63.7%) plays to the strengths of Boston as an excellent fastball hitting club.

On the other side of the diamond, the Cardinals are a very solid hitting club as well. Known for being aggressive hitters that jump on pitches early in the count, the Cardinals have posted good contact numbers and respectable power numbers, they are roughly middle of the road in WAR. A key factor will be how well Craig returns in the DH role in Boston. Given his lack of a true rehab and not having seen live pitching in some time, this could be a concern. The Cardinals lack of a running game (next to last in MLB at 45SB) makes for an interesting flip/flop in AL/NL stereotypes.

Regarding the "8 hitters vs 9 hitters", the Cardinals WAR only increases from 23.3 to 23.7 (13 shy of BOS) and their OPS rises from .733 to .758 (still 40 points shy of BOS) when removing pitchers offensive contributions (or lack thereof) from the equation.
Sure it is. :lmao:
I didn't invent the statistics but I most certainly compiled them and fleshed out the rest of the post. Twas indeed posted by me on Facebook around lunch today in a discussion among some BOS and STL fans. :shrug: No matter to me if you believe me or not.

Like I said.. I usually keep to shtick here and save my higher brow baseball chatter for elsewhere. Not claiming I'm on the level of guys like Eephus here but if you're judging me on my content here then you're allowing yourself to be misled by shtick. :yes:
If you say so. Stealing posts from others at RedSoxnation.com or wherever and passing them off as your own, does seem like decent shtick though. :thumbup: :bueno:

 
I didn't invent the statistics but I most certainly compiled them and fleshed out the rest of the post. Twas indeed posted by me on Facebook around lunch today in a discussion among some BOS and STL fans. :shrug: No matter to me if you believe me or not.

Like I said.. I usually keep to shtick here and save my higher brow baseball chatter for elsewhere. Not claiming I'm on the level of guys like Eephus here but if you're judging me on my content here then you're allowing yourself to be misled by shtick. :yes:
If you say so. Stealing posts from others at RedSoxnation.com or wherever and passing them off as your own, does seem like decent shtick though. :thumbup: :bueno:
Never happened.

If I repost analysis I'll generally point it out as "reposted from elsewhere" like this and even then I don't cut and paste.

The original post referenced elsewhere in that case:

"One thing that I think could become significant: Both defensive metrics* and some semi-educated observers** suggest that the Cardinals' outfield defense may be be an exploitable weakness. This matters because the Sox are a flyball-hitting team; their FB rate of 35.6% ranked 9th of 30 major league teams, while their GB rate of 41.6% was 29th. (Both teams were near the top in LD rate, the Cardinals #1 and the Sox #3.) Of 140 AL players with 300 or more PA, four Sox show up among the ten lowest GB rates: Gomes, Salty, Drew and Nava.

 
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[icon] said:
Fun article breaking down the aggression of cardinals hitters vs the patience of boston hitters:

http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2013/10/21/4860650/the-world-series-will-pit-the-patience-of-the-red-sox-against-the

Having faced Detroit prior to St Louis HAS to be a plus with regards to the Sox squaring off against Wain/Wacha.

Will be very interesting.

Cards with the edge at SP. Boston with the edge at RP, Offensive Firepower, Baserunning, and overall Defense IMO.
Not sure about offensive firepower. Boston scored 70 more runs this year, but that's with 9 hitters as opposed to 8. And like I mentioned before, I think STL's DH situation is much better than Boston's no DH situation.
More detail IMO from a post of mine elsewhere:

By all accounts the Red Sox featured the most potent offense in the majors this year, leading the league in runs (853), Slugging Percentage (.446) and offensive WAR (wins above replacement) at 36.6. A patient team at the plate, Boston sees more pitches per at bat than any other team. Some point to the perceived “bandbox” of Fenway, however Fenway actually had a slight negative effect on Runs (20th : 0.96) and a significant negative impact on Home Runs (23rd : 0.85).

On top of the power and patience that are hallmarks of the Red Sox offense… they also trump the Cardinals on the base-paths with more doubles, triples and nearly 3 times as many stolen bases. This will be negated somewhat by Molina behind the plate but will be very visible on balls hit into the Cardinals podding outfield trio, who boast MLB's only trio of Negative DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) ratings.. the leagues 24th best (-27) overall. I also must add that one concern for the Cardinals has to be that their SP and RPs reliance on the Fastball (1st in MLB at 63.7%) plays to the strengths of Boston as an excellent fastball hitting club.

On the other side of the diamond, the Cardinals are a very solid hitting club as well. Known for being aggressive hitters that jump on pitches early in the count, the Cardinals have posted good contact numbers and respectable power numbers, they are roughly middle of the road in WAR. A key factor will be how well Craig returns in the DH role in Boston. Given his lack of a true rehab and not having seen live pitching in some time, this could be a concern. The Cardinals lack of a running game (next to last in MLB at 45SB) makes for an interesting flip/flop in AL/NL stereotypes.

Regarding the "8 hitters vs 9 hitters", the Cardinals WAR only increases from 23.3 to 23.7 (13 shy of BOS) and their OPS rises from .733 to .758 (still 40 points shy of BOS) when removing pitchers offensive contributions (or lack thereof) from the equation.
How much does Boston's OPS drop when Ortiz or Napoli is replaced by a pitcher?

Re: fastball reliance, a big part of that has to be because of Miller, who is basically a one-pitch pitcher, and he's not in their post-season rotation.

I also don't think Boston's advantage on the basepaths is going to have that big of an effect overall, it just isn't as big a part of the game. I think they're going to win this series simply because they hit righties very well, they have a great pen, and no jobbers in their rotation (Dempster, wait). None of Boston's pitchers are as good as Wainwright, but they're all a helluva lot better than "Joe Kelly."

Another small factor, playing in Fenway should help disguise Holliday's defensive deficiencies some. At the same time, Boston isn't going to be able to hide Gomes in LF in Busch if they keep playing him over Nava, for God-know-what reason.

 
Addendum: I think if STL has a healthy Garcia in Kelly's spot, this is close to a toss-up.
I was thinking this also, then I remembered the last time the Cards won the WS Waino was gone for the year. Pretty amazing organization.
Garcia's postseason record is a bit shaky, but like GPJ is saying, it would be nice to send a lefty starter out there to give the hitters a different look. As successful as the STL 2094 rotation was, they were all big righties who all threw fastball-sinker-slider: preparing for one was preparing for all.

Also wouldn't have minded having out-all-season Chris Carpenter as an option to start Game 3 or 4. He's past his prime, but he's not that far removed from out gunning Halladay in an elimination game.

 
[icon] said:
Fun article breaking down the aggression of cardinals hitters vs the patience of boston hitters:

http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2013/10/21/4860650/the-world-series-will-pit-the-patience-of-the-red-sox-against-the

Having faced Detroit prior to St Louis HAS to be a plus with regards to the Sox squaring off against Wain/Wacha.

Will be very interesting.

Cards with the edge at SP. Boston with the edge at RP, Offensive Firepower, Baserunning, and overall Defense IMO.
Not sure about offensive firepower. Boston scored 70 more runs this year, but that's with 9 hitters as opposed to 8. And like I mentioned before, I think STL's DH situation is much better than Boston's no DH situation.

Pens are close too. I think Boston holds a huge edge in terms of defense though, even w/o Iglesias.
The Red Sox 117 OPS+ (league & park adjusted) is the highest team number for a decade. I'm mostly a National League guy but it doesn't _seem_ like this Boston club is the best offensive team since 2003. I suspect the horrendous offenses of Houston and the White Sox skews the formula a bit.
To the eye, the Boston 2003 team was the best offensive team I've ever seen. Oh, man, it wasn't...isn't close. This isn't even close to my memory, but stats rule the day, I guess.

 
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How much does Boston's OPS drop when Ortiz or Napoli is replaced by a pitcher?

Re: fastball reliance, a big part of that has to be because of Miller, who is basically a one-pitch pitcher, and he's not in their post-season rotation.

I also don't think Boston's advantage on the basepaths is going to have that big of an effect overall, it just isn't as big a part of the game. I think they're going to win this series simply because they hit righties very well, they have a great pen, and no jobbers in their rotation (Dempster, wait). None of Boston's pitchers are as good as Wainwright, but they're all a helluva lot better than "Joe Kelly."

Another small factor, playing in Fenway should help disguise Holliday's defensive deficiencies some. At the same time, Boston isn't going to be able to hide Gomes in LF in Busch if they keep playing him over Nava, for God-know-what reason.
I don't think we will see Ortiz playing 1B. Napoli epitomizes the Moneyball approach to hitting, and can field balls hit at him.

Swapping Miller for Wacha reduces the % of fastballs Boston will see. Wacha is a 2.5 pitch pitcher at best, but his changeup is fantastic paired with the gas. The bullpen is a lot of 98 MPH fastballs, but all of then besides Rosenthal have at least a second pitch, and Martinez has at least three.

Agree the baserunning thing is overrated. It's not that big a part of the game, and running on Molina gets managers fired. Jay's arm in CF can be run on, but Beltran is still a plus arm in RF.

The Moneyball worshippers scoff at the Cards' impatient hitters, but IMO it is more about zigging when others are zagging than a lack of plate discipline. Pitchers working hard to get ahead in counts against hitters willing to take a strike or two to draw a walk will let their guard down early in counts and throw hittable pitches. Why watch a hittable fastball go by for a strike when it can be driven into the gap for a double?

Boston is great at grinding out at-bats, but STL's bullpen is so deep I'm not sure how much running up pitch counts will matter. You beat the Cardinals staff by hitting mistakes over the fence, not by drawing a bunch of walks.

On paper, it looks like Boston in a long series, but Wacha is such a wild card I don't know how to cap him. Obviously his Walter Johnson impression will have to end at some point, but he's defying explanation.

 
How much does Boston's OPS drop when Ortiz or Napoli is replaced by a pitcher?

The bottom line of the non-pitcher stats is that boston is a superior offense when batting 8 or 9. I'm not sure why you continue to fight this but its simply a fact.

Re: fastball reliance, a big part of that has to be because of Miller, who is basically a one-pitch pitcher, and he's not in their post-season rotation.

This simply isn't true.

The only Cardinals starter with sub 60% fastball rate is Wainright (sinkerballer). Lynn throws more FB's than Miller, and Kelly and Wacha are just a few percent behind Miller.

The VAST majority of the bullpen relies heavily on the heat as well.. most round as much if not more than Miller.

I also don't think Boston's advantage on the basepaths is going to have that big of an effect overall, it just isn't as big a part of the game.

Regarding stolen bases, I agree they may cut back a little but you're still talking about a team who stole well over 100 bases a year. If you don't think Ellsbury and/or victorino are going to swipe a bag or three this series.... likely in key spots... I think you're fooling yourself.

And again, you're completely ignoring the MAIN impact of team speed... and that's stretching singles into doubles, and having very fast 1st to 3rd or 2nd to home times. As stated previously, when paired with STLs horrible range in the OF, it's a bit silly to just brush it off as not a big part of the game :lol:

I think they're going to win this series simply because they hit righties very well, they have a great pen, and no jobbers in their rotation (Dempster, wait). None of Boston's pitchers are as good as Wainwright, but they're all a helluva lot better than "Joe Kelly."

I agree that Cards having a ton of righties hurts... as does their reliance on the fastball. Also agree that the Cards 1/2 on their typical day are on par with Boston's 1/2 on their best days.... starting rotation is definitely a significant plus for the Cards.

Another small factor, playing in Fenway should help disguise Holliday's defensive deficiencies some. At the same time, Boston isn't going to be able to hide Gomes in LF in Busch if they keep playing him over Nava, for God-know-what reason.

The problem with Fenway in Left is there isn't much ground to cover but that wall has made many a visiting LF look stupid... particularly NL guys who don't see it a dozen times a year.
 
Kirkjian said Craig will be healthy enough to DH in Boston and pinch-hit in St. Louis, but probably won't be agile enough to field a position.
Is he ever really agile enough to field a position?
He's neither an asset nor liability at 1B. Putting him in LF instead of Matt Holliday is like upgrading from Steve Kemp to Larry Herndon defensively.
Good analogy although Kemp was pretty terrible. So given that Herndon was pretty good in LF, this must mean Holliday is the worst OF since Bibb Falk.

 
Kirkjian said Craig will be healthy enough to DH in Boston and pinch-hit in St. Louis, but probably won't be agile enough to field a position.
Is he ever really agile enough to field a position?
He's neither an asset nor liability at 1B. Putting him in LF instead of Matt Holliday is like upgrading from Steve Kemp to Larry Herndon defensively.
Good analogy although Kemp was pretty terrible. So given that Herndon was pretty good in LF, this must mean Holliday is the worst OF since Bibb Falk.
Put it this way: if Holliday isn't in the AL two years from now, there's going to be a lot of hits to left field.

 
Kirkjian said Craig will be healthy enough to DH in Boston and pinch-hit in St. Louis, but probably won't be agile enough to field a position.
Is he ever really agile enough to field a position?
He's neither an asset nor liability at 1B. Putting him in LF instead of Matt Holliday is like upgrading from Steve Kemp to Larry Herndon defensively.
Good analogy although Kemp was pretty terrible. So given that Herndon was pretty good in LF, this must mean Holliday is the worst OF since Bibb Falk.
Put it this way: if Holliday isn't in the AL two years from now, there's going to be a lot of hits to left field.
"Matt Holliday plays left field like he's wearing steel pants" -Grant Brisbee

:lol:

 
Kirkjian said Craig will be healthy enough to DH in Boston and pinch-hit in St. Louis, but probably won't be agile enough to field a position.
Is he ever really agile enough to field a position?
He's neither an asset nor liability at 1B. Putting him in LF instead of Matt Holliday is like upgrading from Steve Kemp to Larry Herndon defensively.
Good analogy although Kemp was pretty terrible. So given that Herndon was pretty good in LF, this must mean Holliday is the worst OF since Bibb Falk.
Put it this way: if Holliday isn't in the AL two years from now, there's going to be a lot of hits to left field.
"Matt Holliday plays left field like he's wearing steel pants" -Grant Brisbee

:lol:
He's passable now, and by that, I mean he's not too much of a pariah. But he's not getting any younger, folks.

 
How much does Boston's OPS drop when Ortiz or Napoli is replaced by a pitcher?

Re: fastball reliance, a big part of that has to be because of Miller, who is basically a one-pitch pitcher, and he's not in their post-season rotation.

I also don't think Boston's advantage on the basepaths is going to have that big of an effect overall, it just isn't as big a part of the game. I think they're going to win this series simply because they hit righties very well, they have a great pen, and no jobbers in their rotation (Dempster, wait). None of Boston's pitchers are as good as Wainwright, but they're all a helluva lot better than "Joe Kelly."

Another small factor, playing in Fenway should help disguise Holliday's defensive deficiencies some. At the same time, Boston isn't going to be able to hide Gomes in LF in Busch if they keep playing him over Nava, for God-know-what reason.
I don't think we will see Ortiz playing 1B. Napoli epitomizes the Moneyball approach to hitting, and can field balls hit at him.
Farrell said today we will see Ortiz at 1st (didn't say how many of the 3 games, tho). I expect at least 2

 
How much does Boston's OPS drop when Ortiz or Napoli is replaced by a pitcher?

Re: fastball reliance, a big part of that has to be because of Miller, who is basically a one-pitch pitcher, and he's not in their post-season rotation.

I also don't think Boston's advantage on the basepaths is going to have that big of an effect overall, it just isn't as big a part of the game. I think they're going to win this series simply because they hit righties very well, they have a great pen, and no jobbers in their rotation (Dempster, wait). None of Boston's pitchers are as good as Wainwright, but they're all a helluva lot better than "Joe Kelly."

Another small factor, playing in Fenway should help disguise Holliday's defensive deficiencies some. At the same time, Boston isn't going to be able to hide Gomes in LF in Busch if they keep playing him over Nava, for God-know-what reason.
I don't think we will see Ortiz playing 1B. Napoli epitomizes the Moneyball approach to hitting, and can field balls hit at him.
Farrell said today we will see Ortiz at 1st (didn't say how many of the 3 games, tho). I expect at least 2
Safe to assume to see Ortiz as a late PH for SP in STL when he's not starting. Only gets you one AB vs 4 or so.... but IMO the upgrade of Napoli over Ortiz at 1B defensively for an entire game is more important than the upgrade of Ortiz over Napoli for 3 of 4 ABs....even with Ortiz being LH vs RH Napoli.

JMHO of course.... Will be interesting to see what they decide.

 
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Here's hoping the Red Sox show up for a coronation. For those that think Cards SPs are all about 98mph - think again. What they excel at is location and movement with that velocity. If Red Sox try to lift those pitches great - there might be a record set for double plays. I look forward to a great series and will be shocked if it goes less than 6 games regardless of who wins. Edge probably does go to Red Sox but as a Cards fan only Lynn really worries me and hopefully he has a short leash if he gets rocked.

 
Here's hoping the Red Sox show up for a coronation. For those that think Cards SPs are all about 98mph - think again. What they excel at is location and movement with that velocity. If Red Sox try to lift those pitches great - there might be a record set for double plays. I look forward to a great series and will be shocked if it goes less than 6 games regardless of who wins. Edge probably does go to Red Sox but as a Cards fan only Lynn really worries me and hopefully he has a short leash if he gets rocked.
I hope it's Baby Pedro that gets the first call from the pen if Lynn falters.

BTW, for Red Sox fans, Carlos Martinez is called "Baby Pedro" because he's also a smallish guy named Martinez that throws pure evil. It will be a tragedy if he's not in the rotation next year.

 
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