I think the maturation of Sanders is a factor but without Peyton I see Maclin, Tate, etc which has value but not 1.02 value. His current ADP of 43 put's him behind the top 5 rookies but ahead of the sixth (Ajayi) and that seems fair to me!
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**Official 2015 Off-Season Dynasty Completed Trades Thread** (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Dr. Octopus
- Start date
FUBAR
Footballguy
As a sanders owner contending I wouldn't trade him for any rookie other than Gurley, gordon, cooper or maybe white. possibly one of the others if they land in a favorable situation like Indy or even Carolina. so yeah, 1.05 seems right. If not contending I'd go lower but want something else included.
VarsityBlues123
Footballguy
give me lynch and thomas all day.
i am of the camp who wonders why anyone worries about next year or on the even more insane approach of two years from now. so many things can happen before next year. i play for this season and will risk anything for next season to win now. with free agency, injuries,, legal issues, drugs, trades and now early retirement, why would anyone hold a player they predict is so valuable for a year or two from now when in an instant everything can change. heck you can even die tomorrow so make sure why do people worry about next year as if right now is not the most important thing. worry about next year when next year comes.
Yea I agree, I think this is pretty much a no-brainer. Crabtree is pretty much worthless at this point, it looks like the lower body injuries he's had have caught up with him. I doubt he is ever fantasy relevant again. So really it's the Seattle backfield (minus Turbin) and DT for Bell. Lev Bell was an absolute stud last season, there is no debating that. But is he worth the rest of DT's career and what is probably another dominant year by the Seattle run game, including whatever returns Michael gives once Lynch is gone or with a new team? I would say definitely not. Considering the current longevity of the RB position, and the movement towards multi-faceted backfields, it's hard to say how many top 5 seasons Bell has left.
My point is that in the short term, you swap a top 5 RB for an RB and a WR 1 (probably both top 6 or 7), an absolute steal for one year. In the long term youre betting that a dominant receiver who won't be 30 for 3 years and a "stud" prospect at RB will outproduce a RB that was a workhorse already in college and has been a workhorse for his 2 years in the pros. I like those odds.
ChuckLiddell
Footballguy
Agree with FUBAR on this. People are still seeing the DT from when Manning was throwing for 50 TDs. Not only is Manning now a different player in a totally different offensive scheme, but he probably is gone in a year. Then its up in the air who will be throwing to him, and how the offense will look. He is still an elite talent, but the DT from 2013 is a ghost. Lynch is a year or 2 away from the cliff.
Bell is 23 years old and looks like the he will be the consensus number one dynasty RB for a while, playing in a young, elite offense that should be able to stay together for a while. I am not 100% sure I wouldn't prefer the Bell side of this trade starting this season myself.
ETA - Upon further review, for this season I would definitely rather have DT/Lynch. There isnt a huge difference between Bell and Lynch this season. Especially with Bell likely to miss a few games with the suspension.
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DT and Lynch
I like Bell but I prefer selling assets when they can't be valued any higher.
FUBAR
Footballguy
That's a valid perspective but in a dynasty, you're running the risk of detroying your team if you take this approach completely. Of course, you could also destroy a team by constantly churning veteran producers for prospects. But that's not what's happening when you trade for Bell.
completely agreed, and I'd take Lynch/DT too. I'm just saying it's understandable to take Bell.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I dont think dynasty is for you.
This approach will lead to terrible teams pretty much every year after year 1 or 2. Ouch
bostonfred
Footballguy
totally agree with this and its a very good point but if I'm going to make that move I don't make it for two expiring assets.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Demaryius Thomas is an expiring asset??? That is sure news to me.
Ok, I get it, in 2 years Lynch is totally worthless.
However in 2 years, it is quite possible DT and Bell are still very close in value.
People sound like they assume Bell will just tear up the league for 6 more years. TERRIBLE assumption for a RB.
It's an ok value deal. I get the appeal to take Bell here, but unless I am stacked at WR already, I will go with DT and Lynch here, improve my chances of winning for the next 1-2 years, and then accept the risk that Bell would have helped me more years 3-4-5 from now than DT will.
RB volatility man. How many times do we need to see a RB looked at as some 5 year mega stud, only to see them take a fairly dramatic downturn within 2 years. It's pretty rare when that DOESN'T happen
Ok, I get it, in 2 years Lynch is totally worthless.
However in 2 years, it is quite possible DT and Bell are still very close in value.
People sound like they assume Bell will just tear up the league for 6 more years. TERRIBLE assumption for a RB.
It's an ok value deal. I get the appeal to take Bell here, but unless I am stacked at WR already, I will go with DT and Lynch here, improve my chances of winning for the next 1-2 years, and then accept the risk that Bell would have helped me more years 3-4-5 from now than DT will.
RB volatility man. How many times do we need to see a RB looked at as some 5 year mega stud, only to see them take a fairly dramatic downturn within 2 years. It's pretty rare when that DOESN'T happen
ghostguy123
Footballguy
VarsityBlues123
Footballguy
has not yet in my over a decade playing and if it didnt work i would have changed my philosophy by now.
VarsityBlues123
Footballguy
I like this quite a bit. I am also in a salary cap auction dynasty, and I have found that paying big money for a RB for an extended period of time is just a killer. This gives you the ability to get out from under the big contract after this season while still maintaining high production.
bostonfred
Footballguy
I'm not so sure. I totally get the value of dumping that salary, but this time next year, if both of them behave like top ten backs as expected, Charles will still have some trade value, even at a high salary. It might not be much, but it's something. Lynch obviously won't, but you'll get the dollars back. So you're basically laying a bet that Charles will drop significantly in value by this time next year, where youre paying (Charles 2016 trade value) plus or minus the value you get from Lynch instead of Charles this year, against the risk of being stuck with Charles for two years. I think it's a close deal but it's a year too early or a year too late imo.
bostonfred
Footballguy
yes, Thomas is an exporting asset. The day manning retires (or earlier if he stinks it up like he did late last year) his trade value drops for a lot of owners, which means your exit value is gone until he reproves himself. Now, you might be very confident that osweiler will come in and make Thomas every bit as good as he was with manning. I'm sure someone will quote his good games with Tebow as proof that he won't miss a beat. But if he doesn't come out strong with osweiler right away, his value will plummet. So this may be the ladt trade window to get elite we value from him, at least for a while, and possibly ever.
I get that he's young, and blah blah blah talent, but look what's happened to Deckers value - and he put up stud numbers with kyle orton. Look at what people are saying about Emanuel sanders - a lot of people are treating him as a rental. Look at how much Randall Cobbs value had fluctuated in the last month. Thomas might be an elite talent, but an elite fantasy receiver is the product of his talent, his quarterback and his offense.
See I disagree. It is my experience in cap formats that big contracts are hard to move. And moreover, there have to be reasonable contracts the you are willing to acquire and that are available to acquire to make such a move. It becomes tricky. I definitely see your points, but if this league works how I think it is does, the cap space may be the most valuable thing in the trade.
I would say that the difference between DT and Manny is that DT is a much better physical specimen. It is easier to see a world where DT is successful with whatever QB they bring in than Sanders doing it. I definitely agree that the perceived value will drop a little, but its not like you don't get the production DT is putting up this year. You can still move him mid-season if you get cold feet or fall out of it, or just trust your player evaluation of DT that he is an elite WR regardless of QB.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Picks
blardorg
Footballguy
VarsityBlues123
Footballguy
unproven talent over a young stud? If he got a legit proven runner back I would go pick side but on just unproven picks alone? not in a million years do i take those picks over a guy i would hope to land with the 1.1 pick anyways.
FUBAR
Footballguy
That's a big part of this, yes. I also get what Boston is saying, and he makes a good argument. I don't know what Charles might go for next year but I do know what his contract would have bought this year and there are a fair amount of good players likely to be available next year. this was one of those deals where I made the offer and have mixed feelings afterwards.
Also, Charles had been shopped for a while before I finally made the deal for him - a bunch of reasonably priced lower rated players, seems nobody else had much interest in him. So this is basically an even swap with an easy out for cap.
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FUBAR
Footballguy
One More Rep
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
In the league I own Bell, I'd likely turn down an offer like this - although it would be awfully tempting of course. I think these last two rookie drafts have spoiled us into thinking every pick turns into a stud. Going back a few years it seemed close to half of rookie first round picks busted.
FUBAR
Footballguy
blardorg
Footballguy
I would actually probably take WRs with both 1.01 and 1.04. Bell is great, but he's not going to maintain last year's production (IMO). Two early firsts and a 2016 1st is enough to buy most any single player from me.
You've already made your position clear about playing only for the next year, so I'm curious what you would take for Bell? All five first picks, 1.01 through 1.05? Hell, that's just more unproven picks, not a single proven running back in there! The whole first round? Not one of them will probably score as much as Bell this upcoming season, so why the hell would you take that?
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Well in the league I own him I finished third last season and should compete for the title this year, so I'd take the bird in hand.
By no means am I saying this is a bad deal for the side getting the picks - just offering a little different perspective about draft picks.
pizzatyme
Footballguy
I wasn't involved in the trade. I thought the team giving picks overpaid by the 2016 1st. Both sides are very happy with the deal. The team with Bell also has D. Murray. Pretty stout!
Are you really comparing DT and Decker? I guess if those players are equal for you then there isn't much to discuss
One More Rep
Footballguy
bostonfred
Footballguy
Yes, I'm comparing them. I'll also compare Fitzgerald and his drop off without warner. And moss in Oakland, maybe the most physically talented receiver in the history of the game. And Andre Johnson post Schaub. And Reggie Wayne the year between manning and luck.
Qbs need receivers. Receivers need qbs. Thomas is very talented but that doesn't necessarily mean he will be an elite fantasy option with Osweiler. Whether you agree that his production will dip or not is irrelevant because the undeniable fact is that some owners will value him lower post manning. And that means his trade value takes a hit because there are fewer buyers, like a house with a swimming pool.
Qbs need receivers. Receivers need qbs. Thomas is very talented but that doesn't necessarily mean he will be an elite fantasy option with Osweiler. Whether you agree that his production will dip or not is irrelevant because the undeniable fact is that some owners will value him lower post manning. And that means his trade value takes a hit because there are fewer buyers, like a house with a swimming pool.
One More Rep
Footballguy
bostonfred
Footballguy
1.1/lynch/turbin
LBH
Footballguy
I think the 2016 1st you gave has a reasonable chance to be better than that. I still like your side a little better
Until DT signs long term in DEN you really don't need to worry about post-Manning DT. Also I can't imagine Elway (the guy who fired a winning HC) would hand a championship caliber team to Osweiler if he isn't adequate or better.
What if DEN just waits and pays Rivers next year? Or trades for Cutler?
Quite a few assumptions and speculation to justify a point DT won't be able to remain an elite WR. There are just as many likely scenarios he does remain an elite WR
ChuckLiddell
Footballguy
It isnt such a matter-of-fact thing to find a great QB off the scrap heap. Ask Dolphins fans how things have been since Marino retired. Or Bills fans how its been around there since Jim Kelly retired. Ask the Jets fans how things have gone since Joe Namath retired - before some people reading this were even born. There isnt always a Luck to follow a Manning, or a Rodgers to follow a Favre. More often there is a Jay Fiedleresqe player that replaces that legend, and everyone else around them sees a dip as a result.
I do believe DT is an elite talent, but I also do believe that people are still chasing the 2013 DT - which is not a realistic goal. If I owned him, I would be looking for one of the people that likes to look backward instead of forward, and I would try to cash in. He is still young, still elite, and still playing with a stud QB. I agree with those saying that his value is at its all time peak right now. If you want to gamble that Elway will replace Manning with another stud, or that DT will go play with Luck or Rodgers when free agency rolls around, thats one way to play it...but the odds are that he never plays with a better QB than the one he played with in 2013 ever again.
Right. His value is at a peak so why sell him for less was my only point? All my leagues you could probably get bell for DT.
I am fine selling guys at their max value...just get max value
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Please dont compare Decker's ability to Thomas. Good god.
Thomas is the type of talent who can and will do well with basically any QB, and it certainly wouldnt be the first time a great WR scores well with crap at QB. See Andre's career, Gordon a couple years ago, and many other examples.
True #1 stud WRs are that for a reason. Thomas is one of those.
Decker and Cobb are not that type of true #1 NFL WR.
I think DT is every bit as good as AJ Green, and Green puts up nice numbers with Dalton who sucks. Just another example.
Again, this seems to be another assumption that a RUNNING BACK will score huge for many years in a row. And again, very very bad assumption to make.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Shhhhhhhhhhhhh, that other thread about making a deal without players/picks on one side will hear you
ghostguy123
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
cstu
Footballguy
If anyone is concerned about a post-Peyton DT, refer them to the second half of 2011 coming off Achilles with Tebow.
Tebow.
...or I could just stop telling all the chicken little's the sky isn't fallin and buy DT on the cheap
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