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*** Official 2016 AtlanticHurricane Season thread *** (1 Viewer)

A couple of interesting and scary for FL posts from weather geeks:

****MATTHEW NOW A MONSTER CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE, UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, OUTTER EYEWALL NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 65 NAUTICAL MILES IN DIAMETER****

Matthew beginning to strengthening, and is now replacing it's eyewall with a much larger/wider eyewall. Very serious situation unfolding for Florida

Hurricane WARNINGS have been extended to the ORLANDO area. Some models bring the eye of Matthew a bit further inland. The new NWS forecast for Orlando calls for gusts up to 105 MPH.
 
Though Nicole shouldn't affect the US (other than attracting Matthew, Hey Girl!) it is now a hurricane.

 
hard to believe so many people are riding it out rather than evacuating for a strong CATEGORY 4 storm..  I remember driving through Homestead after Andrew- it just ate entire blocks upon blocks and turned them to rubble..  ugh

 
Parrothead said:
hard to believe so many people are riding it out rather than evacuating for a strong CATEGORY 4 storm..  I remember driving through Homestead after Andrew- it just ate entire blocks upon blocks and turned them to rubble..  ugh
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It's got to be a hard thing to sit and look at your neighborhood and know it could be gone in a couple days.  Some people just have a hard time grasping that.

 
Parrothead said:
hard to believe so many people are riding it out rather than evacuating for a strong CATEGORY 4 storm..  I remember driving through Homestead after Andrew- it just ate entire blocks upon blocks and turned them to rubble..  ugh
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Based on the video from Nassau - this doesn't look like an Andrew to me. Trees are still keeping their tops - Andrew sheared off all the trees in the Homestead area. So hopefully its not as bad in the end - still better to be prepared on the side of caution.

 
ffldrew said:
Based on the video from Nassau - this doesn't look like an Andrew to me. Trees are still keeping their tops - Andrew sheared off all the trees in the Homestead area. So hopefully its not as bad in the end - still better to be prepared on the side of caution.
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Quite a few trees were snapped in a live video I was watching.

 
Stay safe Florida (& GA & SC & maybe NC) FBGs. I hope most folks down there took the warnings to heart.  

 
ffldrew said:
Based on the video from Nassau - this doesn't look like an Andrew to me. Trees are still keeping their tops - Andrew sheared off all the trees in the Homestead area. So hopefully its not as bad in the end - still better to be prepared on the side of caution.
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Andrew had winds of 165 and pressure of around 922 I believe when it landed.

 
This expansion into a double eyewall isn't good.  The winds really aren't as strong in this secondary "outer" eyewall.  But given another 15-20 hours, they should begin to speed up dramatically, as this outer eyewall is still a very new feature of the storm.

What this means is that the hurricane wind field is getting much, much larger.  

 
Code: 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 78.6W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES
 
Man, thoughts and prayers for all those in the path. This thing looks pretty rough :(

Blizzards suck, but I don't think I could deal with hurricanes, even with the great weather all the rest of the time.

 
:blackdot:   I'm on standby to head into the damaged area for work.  I've done the same having worked long term assignments Andrew, Katrina, the 4 FL Hurricanes in '04 and Ike.  Like others I strongly hope folks heed the evacuation warnings.  I got to Andrew just days after it passed and left in November of 1993 after a year plus there and still have trouble describing the devastation I observed.  I hate to mention it, but I ran the future cast on https://www.windytv.com/27.757/-81.464?27.128,-80.994,9 and it looks like there is a chance of a second landfall the middle of next week that could hamper recovery efforts.  

 
2Young2BBald said:
:blackdot:   I'm on standby to head into the damaged area for work.  I've done the same having worked long term assignments Andrew, Katrina, the 4 FL Hurricanes in '04 and Ike.  Like others I strongly hope folks heed the evacuation warnings.  I got to Andrew just days after it passed and left in November of 1993 after a year plus there and still have trouble describing the devastation I observed.  I hate to mention it, but I ran the future cast on https://www.windytv.com/27.757/-81.464?27.128,-80.994,9 and it looks like there is a chance of a second landfall the middle of next week that could hamper recovery efforts.  
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What do you do to be involved with this, 2Y2BB?

 
Uruk-Hai said:
What do you do to be involved with this, 2Y2BB?
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Insurance.  Early in my career I worked large disasters full time.  From Andrew in August of 1992 through 9 months of working the Northridge Earthquake in 1994 I worked almost 2 years straight at one point.  In fact, I was home less than 5 weeks over that span.  Now, it has been much more sporadic and more often just the major events post 2000.  While it may sounds nuts, I find working these very rewarding as this is when folks need us the most.  

 
The Ref said:
I'm calling BS on this one to a point so long as the money is truly segregated.  They have collected $4-$8K a year from every house in Florida and haven't paid out anything in 12 years.   They should already have billions set aside.
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One would think the fund is large enough, but how the hell did they run out in 2005-2006?  There had not been a major storm since Andrew iirc, then a bunch came that one year.

 
Quez said:
One would think the fund is large enough, but how the hell did they run out in 2005-2006?  There had not been a major storm since Andrew iirc, then a bunch came that one year.
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Katrina and them Wilma. Wilma had a large hurricane-force wind-field and left wide-spread damage over many counties on both coasts. I lost power for over a week near Miami Beach. Thousands of wooden power lines were downed.

 
Should start raining tomorrow here.  They are saying 9-15 inches of rain.  Looks to be closer to the coast around Charleston, they are saying it could be down to a cat 1 by then, but the hurricane force winds will be further inland with this.

Watching how this is skimming, it seems to be playing the "I'm not touching you" game.

 
This is so much more difficult to forecast than a traditional hurricane.  Little "wobbles" to the right or left can mean the difference in this thing riding 20 miles offshore or being a complete destroyer of the Florida seacoast.

The good news is that it doesn't appear we're going to get massive strengthening.  The Cat5 hurricane doesn't appear possible, unless it begins undergoing some major intensification very soon, which hasn't been the case over the past 8 hours or so.

 
GroveDiesel said:
Man, thoughts and prayers for all those in the path. This thing looks pretty rough :(

Blizzards suck, but I don't think I could deal with hurricanes, even with the great weather all the rest of the time.
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True story...I've lived in FL since 2009 and haven't been affected by a hurricane  (including this one). Meanwhile, my old home in NJ has had multiple hurricanes (including Sandy) along with boatloads of snow. 

I think people sometimes misunderstand and think that ALL of FL gets hit by a hurricane every year or at least every other year.

 
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