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Official 2016 GOP thread: Is it really going to be Donald Trump?? (2 Viewers)

If Trump is truly going to be the nominee, then any of you that remain rational (re: anti-Trump) had better support Hillary. Because I don't think Bernie is going to beat him.
socialism vs. capitalism....that won't play well in the United States.
More like socialism vs fascism.Also "socialism" is not a bad word, it's probably the most misunderstood word in America. See Sweden, Finland, Norway and Canada for standard of living and equity among the population. People seem to think socialism and communism are the same thing, which they are not.
the media and the GOP will play it capitalism vs. socialism...I'm guessing Bernie polls terribly vs. Trump.
Haven't looked recently (been focusing more on IA and NH), but last I checked, Bernie was beating Trump, Cruz, and Rubio in head to head polls.
Iirc he polls better than Hillary against those guys. Polls this far out are unreliable but it shows he doesn't in theory poll poorly against them. A lot of folks seem to be okay with his socialism label once he owns it and explains it.

 
If Trump is truly going to be the nominee, then any of you that remain rational (re: anti-Trump) had better support Hillary. Because I don't think Bernie is going to beat him.
Bernie would wipe the floor with Trump in a debate.
I think Hillary would do better in a debate against Trump than Bernie would. There's no telling what would happen but Trump could very well frazzle the old man and it wouldn't take too many gaffes for those on the fence to dismiss Sanders if it happened.

 
And Christie: "Mr President we're coming to kick your rear end out of the White House!" Totally classless. It's like Trump is an infection poisoning the rest of them.
Christie has always spoken like that. Trump stole his shtick and ramped it up ten fold.

 
If Trump is truly going to be the nominee, then any of you that remain rational (re: anti-Trump) had better support Hillary. Because I don't think Bernie is going to beat him.
socialism vs. capitalism....that won't play well in the United States.
More like socialism vs fascism.

Also "socialism" is not a bad word, it's probably the most misunderstood word in America. See Sweden, Finland, Norway and Canada for standard of living and equity among the population. People seem to think socialism and communism are the same thing, which they are not.
the media and the GOP will play it capitalism vs. socialism...I'm guessing Bernie polls terribly vs. Trump.
We're counting on smart guys like you to help explain the distinction to voters.

 
If Trump is truly going to be the nominee, then any of you that remain rational (re: anti-Trump) had better support Hillary. Because I don't think Bernie is going to beat him.
Bernie would wipe the floor with Trump in a debate.
Pfft, he can't even beat Clinton in a debate, and she isn't exactly killing it in those thus far.

Back to Cruz, the minute he busts out that child molester smile, I can't take him seriously. He is the worst.

 
See ya Jeb, ya loser. Stuck down at the end of the stage. Next stop, kicked off the stage. :lmao: The US doesn't need a 3rd round of Bush screwups.

 
So the guy who wants to close our borders, send back illegals, and seems to have issues with most non-whites will somehow wipe the floor with Bernie? Don't demographics work against the Rs so that they have to be able to pull a reasonable share of the black and latino vote in order to win? What minority in their right mind would vote for Trump?

 
If Trump is truly going to be the nominee, then any of you that remain rational (re: anti-Trump) had better support Hillary. Because I don't think Bernie is going to beat him.
Bernie would wipe the floor with Trump in a debate.
I think Hillary would do better in a debate against Trump than Bernie would. There's no telling what would happen but Trump could very well frazzle the old man and it wouldn't take too many gaffes for those on the fence to dismiss Sanders if it happened.
Hillary v. Trump would be insult after insult after insult after insult. Every. Single. Question. On the other hand, Bernie loves to keep things policy-centered which hasn't exactly been Donald's style these last few debates.

 
I tried to watch the debate but ended up finally shutting it off in disgust when Rubio started down the whole tired false meme of Obama running around the world on an apology tour.

These idiots are all fear/hate mongers. The GOP had a chance to show they can be a party of ideas and solutions for real fundamental problems we have on issues like fiscal responsibility but have instead fully embraced demagoguery and became the party of Sarah Palin. Just terrible.

 
And Christie: "Mr President we're coming to kick your rear end out of the White House!" Totally classless. It's like Trump is an infection poisoning the rest of them.
What a scumbag Christie is. He was practically trying to give Obama a rim job when he was there helping Christie out after Hurricane Sandy. But now it fits his agenda to make voters think he hates Obama so he tries flexing his fat-strangled muscles.

 
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I tried to watch the debate but ended up finally shutting it off in disgust when Rubio started down the whole tired false meme of Obama running around the world on an apology tour.

These idiots are all fear/hate mongers. The GOP had a chance to show they can be a party of ideas and solutions for real fundamental problems we have on issues like fiscal responsibility but have instead fully embraced demagoguery and became the party of Sarah Palin. Just terrible.
Unfortunately, a sizable portion of the people who will elect the nominee buy into that sort of talk.

 
And Christie: "Mr President we're coming to kick your rear end out of the White House!" Totally classless. It's like Trump is an infection poisoning the rest of them.
What a scumbag Christie is. He was practically trying to give Obama a rim job when he was there helping Christie out after Katrina. But now it fits his agenda to make voters think he hates Obama so he tries flexing his fat-strangled muscles.
Sandy, moron.

 
And Christie: "Mr President we're coming to kick your rear end out of the White House!" Totally classless. It's like Trump is an infection poisoning the rest of them.
What a scumbag Christie is. He was practically trying to give Obama a rim job when he was there helping Christie out after Katrina. But now it fits his agenda to make voters think he hates Obama so he tries flexing his fat-strangled muscles.
Sandy, moron.
Point remains the same, precious

 
And Christie: "Mr President we're coming to kick your rear end out of the White House!" Totally classless. It's like Trump is an infection poisoning the rest of them.
What a scumbag Christie is. He was practically trying to give Obama a rim job when he was there helping Christie out after Katrina. But now it fits his agenda to make voters think he hates Obama so he tries flexing his fat-strangled muscles.
He's also a pathological liar. (Link)

 
So the guy who wants to close our borders, send back illegals, and seems to have issues with most non-whites will somehow wipe the floor with Bernie? Don't demographics work against the Rs so that they have to be able to pull a reasonable share of the black and latino vote in order to win? What minority in their right mind would vote for Trump?
Even assuming you are right about the demographics, all trump has to do is pick up a,couple percentage points with whites and it will dwarf the loss of minority votes lost.

But if you think Trump won't pull black votes I think you are wrong.

I would be shocked if Trump doesn't pull more black votes than any other Rep since I don't know when.

 
So the guy who wants to close our borders, send back illegals, and seems to have issues with most non-whites will somehow wipe the floor with Bernie? Don't demographics work against the Rs so that they have to be able to pull a reasonable share of the black and latino vote in order to win? What minority in their right mind would vote for Trump?
Even assuming you are right about the demographics, all trump has to do is pick up a,couple percentage points with whites and it will dwarf the loss of minority votes lost.

But if you think Trump won't pull black votes I think you are wrong.

I would be shocked if Trump doesn't pull more black votes than any other Rep since I don't know when.
Why would Trump pull black votes? He's a rich white guy. And how in heaven's name will Trump pull more whites when a decent % of conservatives recognize him to be a buffoon. It seems like only the hardcore conservatives are supporting him. No one even close to moderate wants Trump in the white house. That'd be a huge national embarrassment, just about everyone must see this.

 
So the guy who wants to close our borders, send back illegals, and seems to have issues with most non-whites will somehow wipe the floor with Bernie? Don't demographics work against the Rs so that they have to be able to pull a reasonable share of the black and latino vote in order to win? What minority in their right mind would vote for Trump?
Even assuming you are right about the demographics, all trump has to do is pick up a,couple percentage points with whites and it will dwarf the loss of minority votes lost.

But if you think Trump won't pull black votes I think you are wrong.

I would be shocked if Trump doesn't pull more black votes than any other Rep since I don't know when.
Why would Trump pull black votes? He's a rich white guy. And how in heaven's name will Trump pull more whites when a decent % of conservatives recognize him to be a buffoon. It seems like only the hardcore conservatives are supporting him. No one even close to moderate wants Trump in the white house. That'd be a huge national embarrassment, just about everyone must see this.
Trump is a very different sort of rich white guy than Mitt Romney. Personality matters a lot to voters of all races. Also, plenty of black people are anti-immigrant.

 
So the guy who wants to close our borders, send back illegals, and seems to have issues with most non-whites will somehow wipe the floor with Bernie? Don't demographics work against the Rs so that they have to be able to pull a reasonable share of the black and latino vote in order to win? What minority in their right mind would vote for Trump?
Even assuming you are right about the demographics, all trump has to do is pick up a,couple percentage points with whites and it will dwarf the loss of minority votes lost.

But if you think Trump won't pull black votes I think you are wrong.

I would be shocked if Trump doesn't pull more black votes than any other Rep since I don't know when.
The Left has no idea just how true some of this is. Wait until Trump makes it out of the primary and into the general, his views and his words are going to end up very center IMO. He will at that point figure he has plenty of the white vote and go after the black vote at that point. I'm not sure he is going to appeal to Latinos and that's a problem in a swing state like Florida where he needs every vote.

I still would not put it past Trump to figure out he can carry whites and take Rubio to all but force Latinos to vote for him. Be interesting to see who Bernie or Hilary will take as their VP.

 
So the guy who wants to close our borders, send back illegals, and seems to have issues with most non-whites will somehow wipe the floor with Bernie? Don't demographics work against the Rs so that they have to be able to pull a reasonable share of the black and latino vote in order to win? What minority in their right mind would vote for Trump?
Even assuming you are right about the demographics, all trump has to do is pick up a,couple percentage points with whites and it will dwarf the loss of minority votes lost.

But if you think Trump won't pull black votes I think you are wrong.

I would be shocked if Trump doesn't pull more black votes than any other Rep since I don't know when.
Why would Trump pull black votes? He's a rich white guy. And how in heaven's name will Trump pull more whites when a decent % of conservatives recognize him to be a buffoon. It seems like only the hardcore conservatives are supporting him. No one even close to moderate wants Trump in the white house. That'd be a huge national embarrassment, just about everyone must see this.
Trump is a very different sort of rich white guy than Mitt Romney. Personality matters a lot to voters of all races. Also, plenty of black people are anti-immigrant.
Trump's personality sucks. He's childish and can't come up with a single specific fact when asked how he'd handle certain situations. While his act may play with the right wing extremist who loathe Obama, his schtick will not sit well at all with most regular people. Are you telling me that a majority of people in Ohio, Florida, etc will vote for Trump? No freaking way.

 
So the guy who wants to close our borders, send back illegals, and seems to have issues with most non-whites will somehow wipe the floor with Bernie? Don't demographics work against the Rs so that they have to be able to pull a reasonable share of the black and latino vote in order to win? What minority in their right mind would vote for Trump?
Even assuming you are right about the demographics, all trump has to do is pick up a,couple percentage points with whites and it will dwarf the loss of minority votes lost.

But if you think Trump won't pull black votes I think you are wrong.

I would be shocked if Trump doesn't pull more black votes than any other Rep since I don't know when.
Why would Trump pull black votes? He's a rich white guy. And how in heaven's name will Trump pull more whites when a decent % of conservatives recognize him to be a buffoon. It seems like only the hardcore conservatives are supporting him. No one even close to moderate wants Trump in the white house. That'd be a huge national embarrassment, just about everyone must see this.
Trump is a very different sort of rich white guy than Mitt Romney. Personality matters a lot to voters of all races. Also, plenty of black people are anti-immigrant.
Trump's personality sucks. He's childish and can't come up with a single specific fact when asked how he'd handle certain situations. While his act may play with the right wing extremist who loathe Obama, his schtick will not sit well at all with most regular people. Are you telling me that a majority of people in Ohio, Florida, etc will vote for Trump? No freaking way.
There is an abundance of old people in Florida....They will vote Trump.

Nobody turns out at the polls like the elderly.

 
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So I posted this in the Bernie thread, but I'll post it here too - here's some h2h numbers from a Jan. 10 poll:

Iowa - Clinton 48 v. Trump 40 (Clinton +8)

Iowa - Sanders 51 v. Trump 38 (Sanders +13)

Iowa - Clinton 43 v. Cruz 47 (Cruz +4)

Iowa - Sanders 47 v. Cruz 42 (Sanders +5)

Iowa - Clinton 42 v. Rubio 47 (Rubio +5)

Iowa - Sanders 44 v. Rubio 44 (Tie)

NH - Clinton 45 v. Trump 44 (Clinton +1)

NH - Sanders 56 v. Trump 37 (Sanders +19)

NH - Clinton 44 v. Cruz 48 (Cruz +4)

NH - Sanders 55 v. Cruz 37 (Sanders +18)

NH - Clinton 40 v. Rubio 52 (Rubio +12)

NH - Sanders 50 v. Rubio 41 (Sanders +9)

Looks like the GOP's 'dream' matchup right now would be Rubio vs. Hillary, and the Dem's dream matchup is Bernie vs. Trump.
 
So the guy who wants to close our borders, send back illegals, and seems to have issues with most non-whites will somehow wipe the floor with Bernie? Don't demographics work against the Rs so that they have to be able to pull a reasonable share of the black and latino vote in order to win? What minority in their right mind would vote for Trump?
Even assuming you are right about the demographics, all trump has to do is pick up a,couple percentage points with whites and it will dwarf the loss of minority votes lost.

But if you think Trump won't pull black votes I think you are wrong.

I would be shocked if Trump doesn't pull more black votes than any other Rep since I don't know when.
Why would Trump pull black votes? He's a rich white guy. And how in heaven's name will Trump pull more whites when a decent % of conservatives recognize him to be a buffoon. It seems like only the hardcore conservatives are supporting him. No one even close to moderate wants Trump in the white house. That'd be a huge national embarrassment, just about everyone must see this.
Trump is a very different sort of rich white guy than Mitt Romney. Personality matters a lot to voters of all races. Also, plenty of black people are anti-immigrant.
Trump's personality sucks. He's childish and can't come up with a single specific fact when asked how he'd handle certain situations. While his act may play with the right wing extremist who loathe Obama, his schtick will not sit well at all with most regular people. Are you telling me that a majority of people in Ohio, Florida, etc will vote for Trump? No freaking way.
:lmao: You are in for quite a surprise.

 
So the guy who wants to close our borders, send back illegals, and seems to have issues with most non-whites will somehow wipe the floor with Bernie? Don't demographics work against the Rs so that they have to be able to pull a reasonable share of the black and latino vote in order to win? What minority in their right mind would vote for Trump?
Even assuming you are right about the demographics, all trump has to do is pick up a,couple percentage points with whites and it will dwarf the loss of minority votes lost.

But if you think Trump won't pull black votes I think you are wrong.

I would be shocked if Trump doesn't pull more black votes than any other Rep since I don't know when.
Why would Trump pull black votes? He's a rich white guy. And how in heaven's name will Trump pull more whites when a decent % of conservatives recognize him to be a buffoon. It seems like only the hardcore conservatives are supporting him. No one even close to moderate wants Trump in the white house. That'd be a huge national embarrassment, just about everyone must see this.
Trump is a very different sort of rich white guy than Mitt Romney. Personality matters a lot to voters of all races. Also, plenty of black people are anti-immigrant.
Trump's personality sucks. He's childish and can't come up with a single specific fact when asked how he'd handle certain situations. While his act may play with the right wing extremist who loathe Obama, his schtick will not sit well at all with most regular people. Are you telling me that a majority of people in Ohio, Florida, etc will vote for Trump? No freaking way.
:lmao: You are in for quite a surprise.
I've gone to a couple of right wing forums, and even they recognize what a disaster Trump would be. He's not even winning the R nomination.

No way in hell Trump can sniff the presidency. He's a joke.

 
So the guy who wants to close our borders, send back illegals, and seems to have issues with most non-whites will somehow wipe the floor with Bernie? Don't demographics work against the Rs so that they have to be able to pull a reasonable share of the black and latino vote in order to win? What minority in their right mind would vote for Trump?
Even assuming you are right about the demographics, all trump has to do is pick up a,couple percentage points with whites and it will dwarf the loss of minority votes lost.But if you think Trump won't pull black votes I think you are wrong.

I would be shocked if Trump doesn't pull more black votes than any other Rep since I don't know when.
Why would Trump pull black votes? He's a rich white guy. And how in heaven's name will Trump pull more whites when a decent % of conservatives recognize him to be a buffoon. It seems like only the hardcore conservatives are supporting him. No one even close to moderate wants Trump in the white house. That'd be a huge national embarrassment, just about everyone must see this.
Trump is a very different sort of rich white guy than Mitt Romney. Personality matters a lot to voters of all races. Also, plenty of black people are anti-immigrant.
Trump's personality sucks. He's childish and can't come up with a single specific fact when asked how he'd handle certain situations. While his act may play with the right wing extremist who loathe Obama, his schtick will not sit well at all with most regular people. Are you telling me that a majority of people in Ohio, Florida, etc will vote for Trump? No freaking way.
There is an abundance of old people in Florida....They will vote Trump.Nobody turns out at the polls like the elderly.
Ha! Those old white dems will never vote for Trump....especially when he starts talking about Chyna! Those old farts love Chyna and the thought of getting our ### kicked. Lol

 
So I posted this in the Bernie thread, but I'll post it here too - here's some h2h numbers from a Jan. 10 poll:

Iowa - Clinton 48 v. Trump 40 (Clinton +8)

Iowa - Sanders 51 v. Trump 38 (Sanders +13)

Iowa - Clinton 43 v. Cruz 47 (Cruz +4)

Iowa - Sanders 47 v. Cruz 42 (Sanders +5)

Iowa - Clinton 42 v. Rubio 47 (Rubio +5)

Iowa - Sanders 44 v. Rubio 44 (Tie)

NH - Clinton 45 v. Trump 44 (Clinton +1)

NH - Sanders 56 v. Trump 37 (Sanders +19)

NH - Clinton 44 v. Cruz 48 (Cruz +4)

NH - Sanders 55 v. Cruz 37 (Sanders +18)

NH - Clinton 40 v. Rubio 52 (Rubio +12)

NH - Sanders 50 v. Rubio 41 (Sanders +9)

Looks like the GOP's 'dream' matchup right now would be Rubio vs. Hillary, and the Dem's dream matchup is Bernie vs. Trump.
Pre-nomination h2h numbers are widely considered to be pretty much useless. Pre-nomination h2h polling in states that comprise a combined 10 electoral votes seems even less helpful.

 
So the guy who wants to close our borders, send back illegals, and seems to have issues with most non-whites will somehow wipe the floor with Bernie? Don't demographics work against the Rs so that they have to be able to pull a reasonable share of the black and latino vote in order to win? What minority in their right mind would vote for Trump?
Even assuming you are right about the demographics, all trump has to do is pick up a,couple percentage points with whites and it will dwarf the loss of minority votes lost.

But if you think Trump won't pull black votes I think you are wrong.

I would be shocked if Trump doesn't pull more black votes than any other Rep since I don't know when.
Why would Trump pull black votes? He's a rich white guy. And how in heaven's name will Trump pull more whites when a decent % of conservatives recognize him to be a buffoon. It seems like only the hardcore conservatives are supporting him. No one even close to moderate wants Trump in the white house. That'd be a huge national embarrassment, just about everyone must see this.
Trump is a very different sort of rich white guy than Mitt Romney. Personality matters a lot to voters of all races. Also, plenty of black people are anti-immigrant.
Trump's personality sucks. He's childish and can't come up with a single specific fact when asked how he'd handle certain situations. While his act may play with the right wing extremist who loathe Obama, his schtick will not sit well at all with most regular people. Are you telling me that a majority of people in Ohio, Florida, etc will vote for Trump? No freaking way.
:lmao: You are in for quite a surprise.
I've gone to a couple of right wing forums, and even they recognize what a disaster Trump would be. He's not even winning the R nomination.

No way in hell Trump can sniff the presidency. He's a joke.
He's virtually a lock for the nomination and those Rs you're reading will most likely fall in line come November.

 
The Left has no idea just how true some of this is. Wait until Trump makes it out of the primary and into the general, his views and his words are going to end up very center IMO. He will at that point figure he has plenty of the white vote and go after the black vote at that point. I'm not sure he is going to appeal to Latinos and that's a problem in a swing state like Florida where he needs every vote. votes than any other Rep since I don't know when.

I still would not put it past Trump to figure out he can carry whites and take Rubio to all but force Latinos to vote for him. Be interesting to see who Bernie or Hilary will take as their VP.
Latinos are not going to vote for Trump because he puts Rubio on the ticket. Contrary to what you might think, Latinos will not automatically vote for someone just because they are Latino or have a Latino surname. Trump has gotten a lot of bad press in the Latino community. Trump piñatas are still a bit seller. Latinos haven't forgotten nor will they forget his plan to deport 11 million, many of which are friends and relatives.

And as far as black voters are concerned, the idea that Trump will do well among that group is also fantasy. From a HuffPo article in December talking about Trump and black voters:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/c-nicole-mason/black-vote-donald-trump_b_8711078.html

The Majority of Black People Will Not Vote for Donald Trump

This week in an effort to make inroads with black voters, Donald Trump met with black pastors in New York City. The specific details of the meeting have yet to emerge and no meaningful endorsements have been issued by any of the clergy in attendance. Despite this, Trump remains convinced that black people will turnout for him heftily in the general election. Here's why he's wrong:

On the issues that matter most to black people--the economy, violence, education and healthcare--Trump is consistently on the wrong side of the debate. On the economy, he wants to freeze the minimum wage and allow Wall Street Hedge Fund Managers to take the lead on policy and programs. His economic plan also fails to include any real effort to address the disproportionately high unemployment rate for African-Americans. At 11.6 percent, it is nearly double the national rate of 5.5 percent.

What to do about the violence perpetrated against young black men and women in schools, neighborhoods and cities across the country is also top priority for African-Americans. However, Trump has referred to Black Lives Movement leaders and activists as "trouble," and blocked protesters from entering his campaign rally. He also recently cited misleading statistics on the level of black-on-black crime in order to deflect from the string of murders of young black men and women by law enforcement or vigilantes.

Next, 38 percent of Americans believe healthcare is an extremely important issue, including black people. Nationally, just over one in five (21 percent) of blacks do not have health insurance. They are also less likely than whites to have employer-sponsored coverage. This does not matter to Trump. He would repeal Obamacare and replace it with "something terrific." Repealing the Affordable Care Act and other provisions would have a devastating effect on African-American low-income individuals and families.

On education, Trump wants to cut the Department of Education "way, way down." He also believes public education should be treated as a business and that school vouchers would improve public schools. He's wrong. Starving the Department of Education and treating the public education system like a for-profit venture would hurt the neediest and most disadvantaged students. Black students are more likely to attend schools where fewer than 60 percent of teachers have the appropriate state certification and only one in two students had access to full range of math and science courses in their high schools.

In his head, Trump believes he has the black vote sewn up. In reality, it is a different story. Ninety-two percent of black people polled says Trump doesn't care about them or their issues and only 5 percent said they would vote for him if the election where held today.

After the historic two-term election of Barack Obama, African-Americans and the American electorate, in general, understand the power and weight of their vote. They will not throw it away on a candidate that does not care about them or their communities.
 
So the guy who wants to close our borders, send back illegals, and seems to have issues with most non-whites will somehow wipe the floor with Bernie? Don't demographics work against the Rs so that they have to be able to pull a reasonable share of the black and latino vote in order to win? What minority in their right mind would vote for Trump?
Even assuming you are right about the demographics, all trump has to do is pick up a,couple percentage points with whites and it will dwarf the loss of minority votes lost.

But if you think Trump won't pull black votes I think you are wrong.

I would be shocked if Trump doesn't pull more black votes than any other Rep since I don't know when.
Why would Trump pull black votes? He's a rich white guy. And how in heaven's name will Trump pull more whites when a decent % of conservatives recognize him to be a buffoon. It seems like only the hardcore conservatives are supporting him. No one even close to moderate wants Trump in the white house. That'd be a huge national embarrassment, just about everyone must see this.
Trump is a very different sort of rich white guy than Mitt Romney. Personality matters a lot to voters of all races. Also, plenty of black people are anti-immigrant.
Trump's personality sucks. He's childish and can't come up with a single specific fact when asked how he'd handle certain situations. While his act may play with the right wing extremist who loathe Obama, his schtick will not sit well at all with most regular people. Are you telling me that a majority of people in Ohio, Florida, etc will vote for Trump? No freaking way.
:lmao: You are in for quite a surprise.
I've gone to a couple of right wing forums, and even they recognize what a disaster Trump would be. He's not even winning the R nomination.

No way in hell Trump can sniff the presidency. He's a joke.
He's virtually a lock for the nomination and those Rs you're reading will most likely fall in line come November.
Why do you think he's a virtual lock? Isn't Cruz in at least as good a position as Trump - if not better?

 
So the guy who wants to close our borders, send back illegals, and seems to have issues with most non-whites will somehow wipe the floor with Bernie? Don't demographics work against the Rs so that they have to be able to pull a reasonable share of the black and latino vote in order to win? What minority in their right mind would vote for Trump?
Even assuming you are right about the demographics, all trump has to do is pick up a,couple percentage points with whites and it will dwarf the loss of minority votes lost.

But if you think Trump won't pull black votes I think you are wrong.

I would be shocked if Trump doesn't pull more black votes than any other Rep since I don't know when.
Why would Trump pull black votes? He's a rich white guy. And how in heaven's name will Trump pull more whites when a decent % of conservatives recognize him to be a buffoon. It seems like only the hardcore conservatives are supporting him. No one even close to moderate wants Trump in the white house. That'd be a huge national embarrassment, just about everyone must see this.
Trump is a very different sort of rich white guy than Mitt Romney. Personality matters a lot to voters of all races. Also, plenty of black people are anti-immigrant.
Trump's personality sucks. He's childish and can't come up with a single specific fact when asked how he'd handle certain situations. While his act may play with the right wing extremist who loathe Obama, his schtick will not sit well at all with most regular people. Are you telling me that a majority of people in Ohio, Florida, etc will vote for Trump? No freaking way.
There is an abundance of old people in Florida....They will vote Trump.

Nobody turns out at the polls like the elderly.
Most of the old people in Florida are ex-New Yorkers - they know Trump's a blowhard and won't vote for him

 
Cruz has come back down in Iowa, he and Trump are virtually tied in the polls. Iowa will be a good test, Trump is not strong organizationally in Iowa, and in a caucus state that is a problem. I am predicting much worse than expectations from him in Iowa.

Trump will win NH going away.
The impression is that Trump is not organizationally strong - he's been good at playing possum with some of this stuff though I have noticed.

-QG
Never mind - good window into the s**t show that is the Trump field organzing campaign.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/14/us/politics/donald-trumps-iowa-ground-game-seems-to-be-missing-a-coach.html?_r=1

I envision hordes of would be Trump supporters roaming the backroads of Iowa unable to find their caucus sites.

-QG

 
So the guy who wants to close our borders, send back illegals, and seems to have issues with most non-whites will somehow wipe the floor with Bernie? Don't demographics work against the Rs so that they have to be able to pull a reasonable share of the black and latino vote in order to win? What minority in their right mind would vote for Trump?
Even assuming you are right about the demographics, all trump has to do is pick up a,couple percentage points with whites and it will dwarf the loss of minority votes lost.

But if you think Trump won't pull black votes I think you are wrong.

I would be shocked if Trump doesn't pull more black votes than any other Rep since I don't know when.
Why would Trump pull black votes? He's a rich white guy. And how in heaven's name will Trump pull more whites when a decent % of conservatives recognize him to be a buffoon. It seems like only the hardcore conservatives are supporting him. No one even close to moderate wants Trump in the white house. That'd be a huge national embarrassment, just about everyone must see this.
Trump is a very different sort of rich white guy than Mitt Romney. Personality matters a lot to voters of all races. Also, plenty of black people are anti-immigrant.
Trump's personality sucks. He's childish and can't come up with a single specific fact when asked how he'd handle certain situations. While his act may play with the right wing extremist who loathe Obama, his schtick will not sit well at all with most regular people. Are you telling me that a majority of people in Ohio, Florida, etc will vote for Trump? No freaking way.
:lmao: You are in for quite a surprise.
I've gone to a couple of right wing forums, and even they recognize what a disaster Trump would be. He's not even winning the R nomination.

No way in hell Trump can sniff the presidency. He's a joke.
He's virtually a lock for the nomination and those Rs you're reading will most likely fall in line come November.
Why do you think he's a virtual lock? Isn't Cruz in at least as good a position as Trump - if not better?
My understanding that Cruz is doing well in Iowa but still lagging rather far behind in national polls. For instance, he's 13 points ahead of Cruz in the WSJ/NBC News poll released last night.

 
So the guy who wants to close our borders, send back illegals, and seems to have issues with most non-whites will somehow wipe the floor with Bernie? Don't demographics work against the Rs so that they have to be able to pull a reasonable share of the black and latino vote in order to win? What minority in their right mind would vote for Trump?
Even assuming you are right about the demographics, all trump has to do is pick up a,couple percentage points with whites and it will dwarf the loss of minority votes lost.

But if you think Trump won't pull black votes I think you are wrong.

I would be shocked if Trump doesn't pull more black votes than any other Rep since I don't know when.
Why would Trump pull black votes? He's a rich white guy. And how in heaven's name will Trump pull more whites when a decent % of conservatives recognize him to be a buffoon. It seems like only the hardcore conservatives are supporting him. No one even close to moderate wants Trump in the white house. That'd be a huge national embarrassment, just about everyone must see this.
Trump is a very different sort of rich white guy than Mitt Romney. Personality matters a lot to voters of all races. Also, plenty of black people are anti-immigrant.
Trump's personality sucks. He's childish and can't come up with a single specific fact when asked how he'd handle certain situations. While his act may play with the right wing extremist who loathe Obama, his schtick will not sit well at all with most regular people. Are you telling me that a majority of people in Ohio, Florida, etc will vote for Trump? No freaking way.
:lmao: You are in for quite a surprise.
I've gone to a couple of right wing forums, and even they recognize what a disaster Trump would be. He's not even winning the R nomination.

No way in hell Trump can sniff the presidency. He's a joke.
He's virtually a lock for the nomination and those Rs you're reading will most likely fall in line come November.
Why do you think he's a virtual lock? Isn't Cruz in at least as good a position as Trump - if not better?
They're not even close nationally. Cruz can definitely squeak by in Iowa but that means nothing, look at the last two Iowa winners. Trump is going to cruise everywhere else.

 
How much do national polls really matter? If Cruz wins Iowa and NH and gets momentum, isn't it realistic he could win this?

 
So the guy who wants to close our borders, send back illegals, and seems to have issues with most non-whites will somehow wipe the floor with Bernie? Don't demographics work against the Rs so that they have to be able to pull a reasonable share of the black and latino vote in order to win? What minority in their right mind would vote for Trump?
Even assuming you are right about the demographics, all trump has to do is pick up a,couple percentage points with whites and it will dwarf the loss of minority votes lost.

But if you think Trump won't pull black votes I think you are wrong.

I would be shocked if Trump doesn't pull more black votes than any other Rep since I don't know when.
Why would Trump pull black votes? He's a rich white guy. And how in heaven's name will Trump pull more whites when a decent % of conservatives recognize him to be a buffoon. It seems like only the hardcore conservatives are supporting him. No one even close to moderate wants Trump in the white house. That'd be a huge national embarrassment, just about everyone must see this.
Trump is a very different sort of rich white guy than Mitt Romney. Personality matters a lot to voters of all races. Also, plenty of black people are anti-immigrant.
Trump's personality sucks. He's childish and can't come up with a single specific fact when asked how he'd handle certain situations. While his act may play with the right wing extremist who loathe Obama, his schtick will not sit well at all with most regular people. Are you telling me that a majority of people in Ohio, Florida, etc will vote for Trump? No freaking way.
:lmao: You are in for quite a surprise.
I've gone to a couple of right wing forums, and even they recognize what a disaster Trump would be. He's not even winning the R nomination.

No way in hell Trump can sniff the presidency. He's a joke.
He's virtually a lock for the nomination and those Rs you're reading will most likely fall in line come November.
Why do you think he's a virtual lock? Isn't Cruz in at least as good a position as Trump - if not better?
My understanding that Cruz is doing well in Iowa but still lagging rather far behind in national polls. For instance, he's 13 points ahead of Cruz in the WSJ/NBC News poll released last night.
National polls just don't mean all that much in this primary races when it's state to state and governed by momentum - just ask President Giuliani.

If Trump's organizing really is that poor it's plausible for Cruz to get a surprisingly large win in Iowa. Say he beat Trump by double digits - that would be a big deal (and get through to the SEC primaries which is really the heart of Cruz's plan). New Hampshire likes to spite Iowa, so it may not really help him in NH, but it could enable a dogpile on Trump that brings the others back into in NH.

Everyone likes to pronounce Christie and Kasich (and hell, even Jeb) totally dead - but at this point you can't really do that until New Hampshire is over. New Hampshire likes to surprise and likes to break late. I can't stand Christie - really a guy who ultimately wants to be President so he is someone important and no core convictions whatsoever - but NH is small enough that he could pop the surprise. Same is true of Kasich who is polling much better in NH than overall. McCain was absolutely buried in the polls before his shock win in New Hampshire on late momentum and he was able to carry that through all the way to the nomination.

Side note - does Jeb! think the Graham endorsement adds a 0 to his total changing his 5% to 50%? Graham might be the first case of a rat jumping onto a sinking ship.

-QG

 
How much do national polls really matter? If Cruz wins Iowa and NH and gets momentum, isn't it realistic he could win this?
If he won both he'd Cruz to the nomination. Very very unlikely though - not many candidates are able to pull off that sweep.

-QG

 
Howard Dean probably had an even bigger national lead in 2004 and Iowa and the "Dean Scream" tanked his bid. Or people just had second thoughts when it came time to caucus or vote. So Trump obviously isn't inevitable. The difference is that Trump has already had something like 20 potential Dean Scream moments and none of them have mattered. If suggesting that the female reporter who questions you is on the rag isn't going to hurt your polling it's hard to imagine what will. He'll have to murder a hobo or something.

 
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How much do national polls really matter? If Cruz wins Iowa and NH and gets momentum, isn't it realistic he could win this?
Polls change after every state. Momentum can turn things around for sure. But- the fact is that in recent years Iowa Republicans have been dominated by a certain type of evangelical conservatives, and as a result their choices have not led to national momentum. For example, the last two winners of the Iowa Caucus were Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum.

 
Howard Dean probably had an even bigger national lead in 2004 and Iowa and the "Dean Scream" tanked his bid. Or people just had second thoughts when it came time to caucus or vote. So Trump obviously isn't inevitable. The difference is that Trump has already had something like 20 potential Dean Scream moments and none of them have mattered. If suggesting that the female reporter who questions you is on the rag isn't going to hurt your polling it's hard to imagine what will. He'll have to murder a hobo or something.
Actually Dean had already lost the Iowa caucus before the scream; that came during his concession speech. IMO his campaign was already doomed; people make too much of the scream.
 
Howard Dean probably had an even bigger national lead in 2004 and Iowa and the "Dean Scream" tanked his bid. Or people just had second thoughts when it came time to caucus or vote. So Trump obviously isn't inevitable. The difference is that Trump has already had something like 20 potential Dean Scream moments and none of them have mattered. If suggesting that the female reporter who questions you is on the rag isn't going to hurt your polling it's hard to imagine what will. He'll have to murder a hobo or something.
Actually, I think that's worth +2 points.

 
Winners of Both Iowa and New Hampshire (contested years)

1976 Carter (actually 'uncommitted' won in Iowa but Carter was the vote-getter among actual candidates.

1976 Ford (Reagan challenged the incumbent President in the primaries)

1980 Carter (incumbent President - but Kennedy had challenged him in the primaries)

1992 Bush (kind of an oddball case - Iowa was uncontested but Buchanan announced his challenge to the incumbent President in December of '91 - contesting New Hampshire but not Iowa).

2000 Gore (Shoulda been a split - McCain ended up eating Bradley's independent support throwing NH's primary to Gore)

2004 Kerry

So going back to 1976 there has never been a non-incumbent Republican who has ever swept Iowa and New Hampshire.

-QG

 
Howard Dean probably had an even bigger national lead in 2004 and Iowa and the "Dean Scream" tanked his bid. Or people just had second thoughts when it came time to caucus or vote. So Trump obviously isn't inevitable. The difference is that Trump has already had something like 20 potential Dean Scream moments and none of them have mattered. If suggesting that the female reporter who questions you is on the rag isn't going to hurt your polling it's hard to imagine what will. He'll have to murder a hobo or something.
The Dean Scream didn't tank his bid - it just finished him off for good in terms of any prospect for a comeback. He finished a very poor 3rd there (Kerry 38%, Edwards 32%, Dean 18%). It's considered that the relative inexperience of his organizers was one of the factors that really cost him in Iowa.

Interesting side note - 12 days before those caucuses the polling in Iowa was Dean 30%, Gephardt 23%, Kerry 18%, Edwards 11%. Things can change really fast.

-QG

 

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