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Official 2016 GOP thread: Is it really going to be Donald Trump?? (1 Viewer)

SaintsInDome2006 said:
Mark Murray Verified account ‏@mmurraypolitics


Per natl NBC/WSJ poll:

Clinton 50, Trump 39

Clinton 46, Cruz 44

Sanders 52, Cruz 40

Kasich 51, Clinton 39

Ryan 45, Clinton 44

I guess we all know Kasich and Sanders do well if they break into the open, but few realize how decently Cruz has been polling vs Hillary.

-eta - also, Ryan on the board and opens a favorite.
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Right now Cruz is most notable as the not-Trump candidate.  If he gets the nomination his unfavorability numbers will climb considerably.

 
Ted Cruz, John Kasich join forces to stop Donald Trump

Ted Cruz and John Kasich are joining forces in a last-ditch effort to deny Donald Trump the Republican presidential nomination.

Within minutes of each other, the pair issued statements late Sunday saying they will divide their efforts in upcoming contests with Cruz focusing on Indiana and Kasich devoting his efforts to Oregon and New Mexico. The strategy -- something the two campaigns have been working on for weeks -- is aimed at blocking Trump from gaining the 1,237 delegates necessary to claim to GOP nomination this summer.
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Just has the feel of too little too late to me. 

As I wrote earlier, it's like the end of a Monopoly game where one guy has all the hotels, and the remaining players give each other immunity hoping they can survive a few more turns, but the outcome is never in doubt. 

 
James Daulton said:
Please please please please please let there be a contested convention.  IDGAF who comes out of it the nominee, I just want the stupidity of the party to be on full display for as long as possible.

Although, the Dems casting Bernie aside for a candidate in Hillary who most everyone hates is pretty head scratching to me too.
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They're on the same path.  The GOP is just further down the path.

 
James Daulton said:
Please please please please please let there be a contested convention.  IDGAF who comes out of it the nominee, I just want the stupidity of the party to be on full display for as long as possible.

Although, the Dems casting Bernie aside for a candidate in Hillary who most everyone hates is pretty head scratching to me too.
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Weird how the candidate who "everybody hates" has way more votes than the candidate everybody loves. 

Group think narrative at its finest. 

 
timschochet said:
What path is that? 

The Democratic Party will be fine. The Republicans are in disarray. 
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disenfranchisement....and the GOP was "fine" just a few elections ago too.  

ETA:  And let's be honest, the GOP really isn't in disarray...they have a pretty good representation everywhere but in the office of President.  They aren't going anywhere.  This success shows us (well, me anyway) no one really trusts either party on their own

 
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timschochet said:
What path is that? 

The Democratic Party will be fine. The Republicans are in disarray. 
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Nobody wants to believe that more than me. But this article demonstrates how the GOP has embedded itself into control of the House.  It's somewhat of a double-edged sword, however, in that the system is encouraging the type of Republicans who won't be able to win the Oval Office because national demographics are trending away from them. Nationalists with religious bents will only be able to hang on, not expand power into the new voters coming of age.

 
Once America gets a good look at Cruz if he had that spotlight of a nomination, he wouldn't garner 40 percent of the popular vote.  What an absolutely loathsome worm.

 
cstu said:
The last time the GOP was 'fine' was 2000. 
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Agreed,,,it can go sideways quickly.  This backlash within the GOP should be a warning to everyone involved though.  This can happen to either if people get fed up enough.  The "at least I'm not as bad as him" excuse can only last for so long before it crushes those using the excuse.

 
The Commish said:
Agreed,,,it can go sideways quickly.  This backlash within the GOP should be a warning to everyone involved though.  This can happen to either if people get fed up enough.  The "at least I'm not as bad as him" excuse can only last for so long before it crushes those using the excuse.
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The biggest threat to Democrats isn't themselves but Republicans making their message palatable to centrist Democrats.  That would require a sea change on many issues and I don't know how they can do that without alienating their base (although where else will they go?).

 
Kasich and Cruz in any order will be the ticket.
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But wait....all the Trumpkins have been claiming that Kasich will be Trump's VP candidate to guarantee a victory in Ohio. Does that mean that Trump will have to bring on Rubio or LEB to guarantee a victory in Florida??

 
cstu said:
The biggest threat to Democrats isn't themselves but Republicans making their message palatable to centrist Democrats.  That would require a sea change on many issues and I don't know how they can do that without alienating their base (although where else will they go?).
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And this is key....both democrats and republicans know they have most people right where they want them, so it'll be a #### show for sure, but it won't change a whole lot.  At some point I'm hopeful the fringe are ignored and we can move forward with grown up discussions about what's best for the electorate rather than the parties, individual politicians and/or big business.  I doubt I see that in my lifetime, but if I can help push us that way, I will.

 
Joe Summer said:
Kasich and Cruz in any order will be the ticket.
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But wait....all the Trumpkins have been claiming that Kasich will be Trump's VP candidate to guarantee a victory in Ohio. Does that mean that Trump will have to bring on Rubio or LEB to guarantee a victory in Florida??
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I don't see any of the 3 forming a ticket, whether Cruz/Kasich, Trump/Kasich, or Kasich/Cruz.  All of them seem to have large egos that would not allow them to "take a step back" to let the other guy lead.  For them, it appears it's all or nothing.

Even after striking this alliance, Cruz went on TV at a rally and blasted Kasich as a non-candidate. It's a free-for-all out there.

 
Came across a friend of mine who is an intelligent business man and supporting Trump. When it comes down to it- though he never put it in these words, he is sick of the politicians/establishment and this is his way of saying "F U" to the lot of them.

I pointed out numerous flaws from Trump. He basically agreed with all of them with the exception that Trump is questionable as a 'conservative'. But still didn't faze his support. The only other big area of disagreement was that my position that Trump gets slaughtered in the general while he thinks Trump can win the general.

:wall:

 
Chadstroma said:
Came across a friend of mine who is an intelligent business man and supporting Trump. When it comes down to it- though he never put it in these words, he is sick of the politicians/establishment and this is his way of saying "F U" to the lot of them.

I pointed out numerous flaws from Trump. He basically agreed with all of them with the exception that Trump is questionable as a 'conservative'. But still didn't faze his support. The only other big area of disagreement was that my position that Trump gets slaughtered in the general while he thinks Trump can win the general.

:wall:
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I'd be rethinking both my friendship and my opinion of this guy in your shoes.

 
The frenemy alliance is a necessary thing - and they had to do it publicly because it's the only way they can signal the super PACs supporting each of them - they could not do a secret deal for this reason - because if the super PACs pull out absent this signal it actually is a sign of illegal collusion.  Is this goofy?  Yes.  But by doing it this way they are actually going about it the legally correct way.

The deal benefits Cruz more than Kasich IMO, but it does benefit them both.  They can't go out and say "vote for the other guy" directly but watch their travel schedules - I'd think you don't see Kasich in Indiana at all.

I don't think it presages any further deal (i.e. a Cruz/Kasich ticket).  It is more a Seinfeld/Newman kind of pact coming about out of temporary necessity.

Funniest part about the deal is that it entails Kasich abandoning a state that borders his own (Indiana) and Cruz abandoning a state that border his own (New Mexico).

One final note - I totally expect Cruz to sneakily dominate the delegate slates in Oregon and New Mexico with sleeper cell agents anyway.  It fits with his strategy and technically goes along with the alliance.

-QG

 
This Kasich and Tricky Ted thing is interesting as it plays right into Trump's current narrative that the establishment is corrupt and trying to silence the will of the voters. Nate Silver posted something the other day postulating that Trump's recent bounce in the polls is resonating with a group of Republicans he called "Trump Tolerant." Not supporters but not in the Never Trump camp either. It seems like a somewhat risky strategy since Trump was pretty unlikely to get to the delegate threshold anyway. 

 
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Arsenal of Doom said:
This Kasich and Tricky Ted thing is interesting as it plays right into Trump's current narrative that the establishment is corrupt and trying to silence the will of the voters. Nate Silver posted something the other day postulating that Trump's recent bounce in the polls is resonating with a group of Republicans he called "Trump Tolerant." Not supporters but not in the Never Trump camp either. It seems like a somewhat risky strategy since Trump was pretty unlikely to get to the delegate threshold anyway. 
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It is risky but it worked in Ohio. Biggest problem is it still requires Kasich to show up and win two states all on his own.

 
Trump winning all five states should pretty much end this thing. I'm a bit disappointed as I wanted to see a circus at the convention! 

It's still going to be interesting to see if the republican establishment change and get behind Trump.

I guess they have to?

 
Arsenal of Doom said:
This Kasich and Tricky Ted thing is interesting as it plays right into Trump's current narrative that the establishment is corrupt and trying to silence the will of the voters. Nate Silver posted something the other day postulating that Trump's recent bounce in the polls is resonating with a group of Republicans he called "Trump Tolerant." Not supporters but not in the Never Trump camp either. It seems like a somewhat risky strategy since Trump was pretty unlikely to get to the delegate threshold anyway. 
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These GOP candidates are real idiots.  They think teaming up to prevent the will of the people is a good thing.  These guys are dumb beyond belief.  Really dumb.  Borderline special needs

 
The Commish said:
Weirdest thing in that opinion is how Cruz was somehow better than Trump...GOP dodges a big bullet if Cruz gets the snub.  Yeah, Trump's a moron, but he's not Cruz.
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Agreed Trump is fine he has the ability to work and deal with anyone. Cruz is like something out of the dark ages. 

 
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