Official 2016 GOP thread: Is it really going to be Donald Trump?? (2 Viewers)

[joffer]

my fear on cruz is that his strategy may work

his strategy seems to be keep crazy and prais trump and hope when trump does something REALLY dumb that costs him the nomination Cruz picks up Trump's wackos

it is not a bad strategy

i don't see Trump wackos becoming Cruz wackos. Completely different wackos.

 

[Sinn Fein]

While the Democratic party is as corrupt as the day is long, the Republican party is similarly inept.

It is too late into the campaign to still have 15 candidates. It time to narrow to the best 6

Ted Cruz

Marco Rubio

John Kasich

*** The top-3 are the best choices to win the general election

Carly Fiorina - strong VP candidate, particularly if Clinton gets the Dem nomination

Jeb Bush - has name and money, but simply lacks the charisma to energize his party.

Donald Trump/Ben Carson - run-off to see who gets the last spot - neither are viable general election candidates

These candidates are where Republican supporters should be stockpiling SuperPAC money. The longer the party wastes time on fringe candidates, the longer it will take to build the brand of the ultimate nominee.

Trump and Carson are crushing the polls, each should be in.

What do they have - 30% support? I would not call that "crushing" it. They are winning because there are too many candidates. Narrow the field to 6, and then see where everyone stands.

The democrats have kept the field small by the party establishment, and big money donors, keeping the riff-raff out (I think they have done themselves a dis-service by going all in with Hillary - there should have been 2-3 well-supported young democrats in the field, if for experience and nothing else). The GOP can do the same, if they start putting their weight and money behind certain candidates - and letting the funding dry up for the fringe.

LOL...so in your world...division winners play for the wildcard spot...but guys who are in fifth place get automatic byes? Awesome.

Wat??? That makes no sense.

Do you think either Trump or Carson can garner over 50% of the vote? I don't. If Carson dropped out, I don't think his supporters would go to Trump, nor do I think Trump's supporters would go to Carson.

Having the most support among 15 candidates is not the same as saying you have enough support to get the nomination.

 

[fatguyinalittlecoat]

A candidate doesn't need to get 50% of the vote to get the nomination.

 

[B-Deep]

my fear on cruz is that his strategy may work

his strategy seems to be keep crazy and prais trump and hope when trump does something REALLY dumb that costs him the nomination Cruz picks up Trump's wackos

it is not a bad strategy

i don't see Trump wackos becoming Cruz wackos. Completely different wackos.

i am not so sure

but i hope you are right

 

[Amused to Death]

I just keep coming back to Rubio as my guy here and probably the only person I'd vote for over Hillary.

I know he's not high up in the power rankings and I just don't get why. Is he the most centrist of the base or at least the most reasonable?

He always seems to have clear, concise and well thought out actual answers to the questions asked. He doesn't look like a doofus like most of the others and just has a more "Presidential" vibe to me. He comes off as extremely smart and well spoken.

Am I way off here? Is the base right now just too far to the right to even see what I see with Rubio?

Someone talk me out of him...please (I don't really know if I'm right leaning or left leaning - I switch back and forth depending on the issue - so just looking for someone of like mind to talk me out of Rubio here or tell me why he's and I are both crazy.

He seems good at one thing: memorizing medium length passages and delivering them with minimal flubs. I've never heard him just speak off the cuff. Everything is canned. Cruz is the same way. They're like those dolls where you pull the string and they say one of 8 things.

This is exactly how I describe my view of him. He may be very good in the future, I just don't view him as "Presidential" right now.

 

[TobiasFunke]

No mention of this amazing Jeb! tweet yet?

Might not be dumbest presidential candidate tweet in the history of Twitter but right now I can't think of a dumber one.

 

[Sinn Fein]

A candidate doesn't need to get 50% of the vote to get the nomination.

They need 50% of the delegates...

How many states are winner take all v. apportioned?

 

[Slapdash]

No mention of this amazing Jeb! tweet yet?

Might not be dumbest presidential candidate tweet in the history of Twitter but right now I can't think of a dumber one.

Wow

 

[Slapdash]

Bung Dan ‏@swarthyvillain 1h1 hour ago

@JebBush thats a picture of him at a place he didn't keep safe pal

 

[SIDA!]

While the Democratic party is as corrupt as the day is long, the Republican party is similarly inept.

It is too late into the campaign to still have 15 candidates. It time to narrow to the best 6

Ted Cruz

Marco Rubio

John Kasich

*** The top-3 are the best choices to win the general election

Carly Fiorina - strong VP candidate, particularly if Clinton gets the Dem nomination

Jeb Bush - has name and money, but simply lacks the charisma to energize his party.

Donald Trump/Ben Carson - run-off to see who gets the last spot - neither are viable general election candidates

These candidates are where Republican supporters should be stockpiling SuperPAC money. The longer the party wastes time on fringe candidates, the longer it will take to build the brand of the ultimate nominee.

Trump and Carson are crushing the polls, each should be in.

What do they have - 30% support? I would not call that "crushing" it. They are winning because there are too many candidates. Narrow the field to 6, and then see where everyone stands.

The democrats have kept the field small by the party establishment, and big money donors, keeping the riff-raff out (I think they have done themselves a dis-service by going all in with Hillary - there should have been 2-3 well-supported young democrats in the field, if for experience and nothing else). The GOP can do the same, if they start putting their weight and money behind certain candidates - and letting the funding dry up for the fringe.

LOL...so in your world...division winners play for the wildcard spot...but guys who are in fifth place get automatic byes? Awesome.

Wat??? That makes no sense.

Do you think either Trump or Carson can garner over 50% of the vote? I don't. If Carson dropped out, I don't think his supporters would go to Trump, nor do I think Trump's supporters would go to Carson.

Having the most support among 15 candidates is not the same as saying you have enough support to get the nomination.

You are the one talking about paring down the current field.

How in the hell can you pare down the current field and decide that the ones who are leading the pack have to fight to get one spot, but all the other guys you put in there have single digit support.

I don't think anyone can garner 50% right now. And I sure as #### do not think Trump supporters or Carson supporters are going to establishment candidates if they drop out. I am pretty clued in to the GOP grassroots and I think Trump supporters are more likely to go with Carson than John Kasich.

 

[fatguyinalittlecoat]

A candidate doesn't need to get 50% of the vote to get the nomination.

They need 50% of the delegates...How many states are winner take all v. apportioned?

They don't need to get 50% of delegates awarded to them in the primaries and caucuses.

 

[Dickies]

Just finished watching on the DVR.

Walker looked like he was stoned.

Trump sounding more like a politician, especially the exit interview.

Carly was very prepared. Carly vs Hillary would be awesome. She would crush Hillary in a debate.

Rubio and Christie stepped up to the plate, and missed a few pitches.

Carson actually was a little louder than usual several times he spoke as compared to last time. He should stick to the 10% and not call it tithing. He also gained about 500,000 FB followers today.

Cruz, it would take him about two seconds to find the camera to focus on and then would send us all his creepy, laser stare.

Jeb smokes pot Well, at least we will get to remember him by this.

Kasich never gets enough air time.

WTF is Paul doing on that stage?

Huckabee is a x 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

So true

 

[Sinn Fein]

A candidate doesn't need to get 50% of the vote to get the nomination.

They need 50% of the delegates...How many states are winner take all v. apportioned?

They don't need to get 50% of delegates awarded to them in the primaries and caucuses.

Trump does - he is not getting any of the party delegates...

ETA - if he gets half the available delegates from the states, he would have 1016 delegates, and need 1235.

If he gets 30%, which is where he is polling, he would have 609 delegates - a long way from getting the nomination.

 

[Dickies]

This morning the media consensus seems to be: Fiorina won, Trump lost. I won't believe Trump lost until I actually see him go down in the polls. They said he lost last time too.

As for Carly, I'm probably not the right guy to ask because to me she spouts such nonsense about nearly everything. But she is very composed and forceful about it.

You are the perfect person to ask

 

[QuizGuy66]

my fear on cruz is that his strategy may work

his strategy seems to be keep crazy and prais trump and hope when trump does something REALLY dumb that costs him the nomination Cruz picks up Trump's wackos

it is not a bad strategy

Yep, I've been saying this for a while in the thread - Cruz's strategy is one I totally understand. And it seems like the best way for him to move up - I don't think he could get the number he needs to get on his own.

-QG

 

[timschochet]

Here's the problem with all this talk about candidates quitting and shrinking the field: thanks to Citizens United and Superpacs, a lot of these guys won't quit anytime soon. They may be getting nothing in the polls but so what? A few rich guys are willing to throw money at them anyhow. Why should they quit?

 

[bakes]

No mention of this amazing Jeb! tweet yet?

Might not be dumbest presidential candidate tweet in the history of Twitter but right now I can't think of a dumber one.

Wow

He just committed primary election suicide, and if he somehow gets the nomination, this tweet will haunt him.

 

[ffldrew]

No mention of this amazing Jeb! tweet yet?

Might not be dumbest presidential candidate tweet in the history of Twitter but right now I can't think of a dumber one.

Wow

That weed he admitted to smoking? Turns out weed does cause short term memory loss.

 

[QuizGuy66]

A candidate doesn't need to get 50% of the vote to get the nomination.

They need 50% of the delegates...How many states are winner take all v. apportioned?

They don't need to get 50% of delegates awarded to them in the primaries and caucuses.

Trump does - he is not getting any of the party delegates...

ETA - if he gets half the available delegates from the states, he would have 1016 delegates, and need 1235.

If he gets 30%, which is where he is polling, he would have 609 delegates - a long way from getting the nomination.

Roughly half (I think about 23) of the states allot delegates proportionately on the Republican side. States differ in how they do allocation I believe (a little tricky to nail down). The winner-take-all states start in the middle of March (side note - Ohio moved their primary back a week, into winner-take-all territory, presumably to benefit Kasich).

Ultimately you need a majority of the delegates. But if there is still a crowded field in the middle of March, say 6 or 7, it's totally possible that Trump could scoop all of the delegates in a state with a low total like 30%. Later on in the primaries, April, May, June is generally when the field has been winnowed down to 2 or 3 - and at that point the win percentage in these states will move up to the 50% range.

If this year is different (and it very well could be) and a high number of candidates (say 6) end up going into May - that will benefit a low-ceiling candidate like Trump.

The fun part is if Trump ends up with the most delegates going into the convention (say like 35%) but not near enough of a majority. Depending on the mix of other candidates - it could be a very crazy convention. Here's hoping

-QG

 

[fatguyinalittlecoat]

The fun part is if Trump ends up with the most delegates going into the convention (say like 35%) but not near enough of a majority. Depending on the mix of other candidates - it could be a very crazy convention. Here's hoping

-QG

This is what I was getting at. If a lot of candidates stick around for a while, the eventual nominee could be someone that earned far fewer than 50% of delegates.

 

[QuizGuy66]

For fun I looked at the Wikipedia page for the 2012 Republican primaries.

For the early states (first 11) it had the Results split out.

Here's the breakdown of Votes won vs Delegates won - note how much the percentage skews up in delegate % for the top candidate.

Romney 1,854,670 votes (40.7% of vote) - 155 delegates (54.4.%)

Santorum 1,099,596 votes (24.1% of vote) - 27 delegates (9.5%)

Gingrich 990,989 votes (21.8% of vote) - 29 delegates (10.2%)

Paul 511,547 votes (11.2% of vote) - 72 delegates (25.3%)

Huntsman 52,896 votes (1.2% of vote) - 2 delegates (0.7%)

It's not the number of votes you win, as much as where you win 'em

-QG

 

[Sinn Fein]

The fun part is if Trump ends up with the most delegates going into the convention (say like 35%) but not near enough of a majority. Depending on the mix of other candidates - it could be a very crazy convention. Here's hoping

-QG

This is what I was getting at. If a lot of candidates stick around for a while, the eventual nominee could be someone that earned far fewer than 50% of delegates.

You had an odd way of going about it....and, the candidate that wins will certainly have over 50% of the delegates - they will simply have taken on the delegates of candidates who have dropped out. Not sure how much loyalty remains in those situations - if the candidate pledges his/her support for another, whether the delegates will follow suit....

 

[jamny]

Jeb thinks Margaret Thatcher should be on the $10 Bill.

 

[TobiasFunke]

No mention of this amazing Jeb! tweet yet?

Might not be dumbest presidential candidate tweet in the history of Twitter but right now I can't think of a dumber one.

Wow

He just committed primary election suicide, and if he somehow gets the nomination, this tweet will haunt him.

His problem is that he doubled down on it by saying it yesterday and tweeting it out today, so he can't lie about "misspeaking" like he did on when he made that gaffe about spending on women's health issues.

 

[fatguyinalittlecoat]

Everyone knows the first terrorist attack is just a warmup and doesn't count in the stats.

 

[QuizGuy66]

On Super Tuesday:

Romney 1,406,599 votes (38%) - 238 delegates (56%)

Santorum 998,762 votes (27%) - 85 delegates (20%)

Gingrich 836,903 votes (23%) - 79 delegates (19%)

Paul 419,800 votes (11%) - 21 delegates (5%)

The skew matters. If the field doesn't consolidate and Trump is able to keep that 30%+ number who knows.

-QG

 

[QuizGuy66]

The fun part is if Trump ends up with the most delegates going into the convention (say like 35%) but not near enough of a majority. Depending on the mix of other candidates - it could be a very crazy convention. Here's hoping

-QG

This is what I was getting at. If a lot of candidates stick around for a while, the eventual nominee could be someone that earned far fewer than 50% of delegates.

You had an odd way of going about it....and, the candidate that wins will certainly have over 50% of the delegates - they will simply have taken on the delegates of candidates who have dropped out. Not sure how much loyalty remains in those situations - if the candidate pledges his/her support for another, whether the delegates will follow suit....

Pretty sure that if a candidate drops out the delegates have free choice - one would think that the endorsement of their original candidate would matter - but the backchannel wooing of those delegate will be intense.

-QG

 

[TobiasFunke]

Everyone knows the first terrorist attack is just a warmup and doesn't count in the stats.

Planes flying into buildings= safe. Vaccines= unsafe.

The GOP presidential campaign, everyone.

 

[Sand]

Still rooting for Rubio but damn he needs to settle down and learn to be more natural. His opening water joke was ill-advised as well. People on the left are using it as a joke on the drought when he was really just joking about himself.

Was a really stupid joke.

1) It really wasn't funny

2) "Hey California, I know you have a historically bad drought and are restricting water, so I brought my own so I don't have to use yours!"

Very not funny. But honestly not even close to a historically bad drought. Which is why California is ####ed - citizens tend to think they live in never never land.

 

[urbanhack]

Jeb thinks Margaret Thatcher should be on the $10 Bill.

not sure what was worse, those answers or the answers about what their code name would be for the SS.

 

[SIDA!]

Can't stand Jeb Bush, but love the hysterics about the comment he made with respect to his brother.

The fact of the matter is that had you taken a poll a month or so after 9/11 about whether or not Americans thought there would be another terrorist attack during Bush's presidency, you better believe that number would have been sky high.

Through Bush and Obama...it has been quite an amazing job on their part thus far. I mean, not even a random suicide bomber on a bus, etc.

I know there have been some questionable incidents, but all in all, in a nation of over 300 million people, I think both administrations have done a heck of a job.

Lot of silly nit-picking talk going on in here and on the innernets right now.

 

[the moops]

Still rooting for Rubio but damn he needs to settle down and learn to be more natural. His opening water joke was ill-advised as well. People on the left are using it as a joke on the drought when he was really just joking about himself.

Was a really stupid joke.

1) It really wasn't funny

2) "Hey California, I know you have a historically bad drought and are restricting water, so I brought my own so I don't have to use yours!"

Very not funny. But honestly not even close to a historically bad drought. Which is why California is ####ed - citizens tend to think they live in never never land.

Isn't it like the worst drought in 500 years?

 

[Hilts]

Trump, Paul and Kaisch are the only ones that aren't batsh$t crazy.

I know some will comment on Trump but honestly I think he knows what he is doing. I think if he were to win the presidency he would actually be fairly calm about it all and not spend his first 4 years trying to defund planned parenthood and instead focus on creating jobs and getting things going (even thought the economy is officially humming along). he says big things to keep the attention on him. It's smart

The rest are just crazy.

I agree. I think Trump isn't quite as stupid or crazy as he seems. And most of the others are clearly worse. Tallest midget and whatnot.

 

[Lupe]

It really is amazing we have not had any remotely similar to the 9/11 attack in the 15 years since. Props to both Bush and Obama (and the CIA and whoever else). But y'all can rip Jeb if you want for his comment, carry on.

 

[TobiasFunke]

Can't stand Jeb Bush, but love the hysterics about the comment he made with respect to his brother.

The fact of the matter is that had you taken a poll a month or so after 9/11 about whether or not Americans thought there would be another terrorist attack during Bush's presidency, you better believe that number would have been sky high.

Through Bush and Obama...it has been quite an amazing job on their part thus far. I mean, not even a random suicide bomber on a bus, etc.

I know there have been some questionable incidents, but all in all, in a nation of over 300 million people, I think both administrations have done a heck of a job.

Lot of silly nit-picking talk going on in here and on the innernets right now.

I have a lot of really sad news for you. You might want to pull up a chair and pour yourself a stiff drink for this one. Let me know when you're ready.

 

[bakes]

Still rooting for Rubio but damn he needs to settle down and learn to be more natural. His opening water joke was ill-advised as well. People on the left are using it as a joke on the drought when he was really just joking about himself.

Was a really stupid joke.

1) It really wasn't funny

2) "Hey California, I know you have a historically bad drought and are restricting water, so I brought my own so I don't have to use yours!"

Very not funny. But honestly not even close to a historically bad drought. Which is why California is ####ed - citizens tend to think they live in never never land.

Isn't it like the worst drought in 500 years?

Per USGS:

California's 2014 Water Year, which ended September 30, 2014, was the third driest in 119 years of record. It also was the warmest year on record.

 

[bakes]

It really is amazing we have not had any remotely similar to the 9/11 attack in the 15 years since. Props to both Bush and Obama (and the CIA and whoever else). But y'all can rip Jeb if you want for his comment, carry on.

The comment was stupid and insensitive, as well as inaccurate, and made infinitely worse by showing a picture of his brother standing on a pile of rubble which contained the remains of thousands of dead people who died as the result of a terrorist attack committed while he was President and who, if they could, would likely disagree with Jeb's point. Vehemently.

 

[Don Quixote]

To people defending Jeb: If 9/11 happened on Obama's watch, would you say Obama kept America safe?

 

[bakes]

To people defending Jeb: If 9/11 happened on Obama's watch, would you say Obama kept America safe?

My guess is that if you were to take a poll of republican voters, at least 10% would say 9/11 was on either Clinton's or Obama's watch.

 

[trogg78]

W sure did keep Bin Laden safe.

 

[Dickies]

To people defending Jeb: If 9/11 happened on Obama's watch, would you say Obama kept America safe?

My guess is that if you were to take a poll of republican voters, at least 10% would say 9/11 was on either Clinton's or Obama's watch.

Yea, I have a Facebook friend that insists Bin Laden was caught under Bush's watch, and that the current state of Iraq and the entire Middle East is Obama's fault. I can't comprehend how people come up with this stuff

 

[MattFancy]

To people defending Jeb: If 9/11 happened on Obama's watch, would you say Obama kept America safe?

My guess is that if you were to take a poll of republican voters, at least 10% would say 9/11 was on either Clinton's or Obama's watch.

You think it's that low?

 

[TobiasFunke]

It really is amazing we have not had any remotely similar to the 9/11 attack in the 15 years since. Props to both Bush and Obama (and the CIA and whoever else). But y'all can rip Jeb if you want for his comment, carry on.

It really is amazing that we have not had any stories remotely similar to the Monica Lewinsky affair in the 20 years since.

Bill Clinton: he was faithful to his wife.

 

[Dickies]

To people defending Jeb: If 9/11 happened on Obama's watch, would you say Obama kept America safe?

My guess is that if you were to take a poll of republican voters, at least 10% would say 9/11 was on either Clinton's or Obama's watch.

You think it's that low?

Can't be more than 10%, but those 10% tend to be the loudest.

 

[bakes]

To people defending Jeb: If 9/11 happened on Obama's watch, would you say Obama kept America safe?

My guess is that if you were to take a poll of republican voters, at least 10% would say 9/11 was on either Clinton's or Obama's watch.

Yea, I have a Facebook friend that insists Bin Laden was caught under Bush's watch, and that the current state of Iraq and the entire Middle East is Obama's fault. I can't comprehend how people come up with this stuff

Ever listen to right wing talk radio?

 

[SIDA!]

Can't stand Jeb Bush, but love the hysterics about the comment he made with respect to his brother.

The fact of the matter is that had you taken a poll a month or so after 9/11 about whether or not Americans thought there would be another terrorist attack during Bush's presidency, you better believe that number would have been sky high.

Through Bush and Obama...it has been quite an amazing job on their part thus far. I mean, not even a random suicide bomber on a bus, etc.

I know there have been some questionable incidents, but all in all, in a nation of over 300 million people, I think both administrations have done a heck of a job.

Lot of silly nit-picking talk going on in here and on the innernets right now.

I have a lot of really sad news for you. You might want to pull up a chair and pour yourself a stiff drink for this one. Let me know when you're ready.

I am ready.

 

[SIDA!]

To people defending Jeb: If 9/11 happened on Obama's watch, would you say Obama kept America safe?

I think I just did.

If 9/11 happened in 2009 and we hadn't had anything else since then, then yeah.

I mean...because we all were thinking that suicide bombers would hijack planes and fly them into buildings.

Our leaders need to be proactive and run through hypothetical scenarios...but I don't expect them to be psychics.

If keeping America safe equals guaranteeing no terrorist attack ever occurs under your watch..that is an impossible standard. And especially comical in light of the fact that many of the same folks bashing Bush in here have no problem with wide open borders where any Tom, **** and Harry can walk across.

I didn't vote for Bush in 2004 and never would vote for Obama. But on this issue I am not sure what the hell people expect. I think their administrations have done a fantastic job.

 

[TobiasFunke]

Can't stand Jeb Bush, but love the hysterics about the comment he made with respect to his brother.

The fact of the matter is that had you taken a poll a month or so after 9/11 about whether or not Americans thought there would be another terrorist attack during Bush's presidency, you better believe that number would have been sky high.

Through Bush and Obama...it has been quite an amazing job on their part thus far. I mean, not even a random suicide bomber on a bus, etc.

I know there have been some questionable incidents, but all in all, in a nation of over 300 million people, I think both administrations have done a heck of a job.

Lot of silly nit-picking talk going on in here and on the innernets right now.

I have a lot of really sad news for you. You might want to pull up a chair and pour yourself a stiff drink for this one. Let me know when you're ready.

I am ready.

OK. Let's start here:

1. George W Bush was the president on September 11, 2001. Some particularly unsafe things happened that day. Therefore it's kinda silly to say that he kept us safe.

2. There have been several terrorist attacks on US soil since September 11.

3. There are many other things that endanger the safety of Americans (the "us" in Jeb's tweet) other than terrorist attacks. George W Bush didn't really do anything to prevent most of them, and n one case he actually started up the unsafe thing himself.

 

[TobiasFunke]

To people defending Jeb: If 9/11 happened on Obama's watch, would you say Obama kept America safe?

I think I just did.

If 9/11 happened in 2009 and we hadn't had anything else since then, then yeah.

I mean...because we all were thinking that suicide bombers would hijack planes and fly them into buildings.

Our leaders need to be proactive and run through hypothetical scenarios...but I don't expect them to be psychics.

If keeping America safe equals guaranteeing no terrorist attack ever occurs under your watch..that is an impossible standard. And especially comical in light of the fact that many of the same folks bashing Bush in here have no problem with wide open borders where any Tom, **** and Harry can walk across.

I didn't vote for Bush in 2004 and never would vote for Obama. But on this issue I am not sure what the hell people expect. I think their administrations have done a fantastic job.

I think maybe you're conflating two things. Nobody is saying that W made some horrible mistake that allowed the 9/11 attacks to happen. We're saying it's really stupid to say that he kept us safe when it happened on his watch. He didn't. And including a picture of him standing on the rubble that buried the corpses of the people he didn't keep safe while declaring that he kept us safe is incredibly stupid.

 

[SIDA!]

I'm curious. Do you think the FAA keeps the American skies safe and make flying a safe activity?