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Official 2016 GOP thread: Is it really going to be Donald Trump?? (3 Viewers)

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Trump's ex-wife: I raised the kidsIvana Trump is taking credit for rearing her three children with ex-husband Donald Trump, saying “I really raised them.”

“I decided on their schooling and everything they did,” Trump, who was married to the GOP presidential front-runner from 1977 until the early '90s, says in an interview this week with The Daily Front Row.

Ivana Trump has three now-grown children with the real estate mogul: Donald Jr., Ivanka and Eric Trump.

"When I divorced Donald, the children were like 4, 6, and 8,” Trump tells the fashion publication. “I had full custody, and there was only one cook in the kitchen, which was me.”

...
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http://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/in-the-know/269312-trumps-ex-wife-i-raised-the-kids

 
Righetti said:
Right to Rise airing an attack ad against Kaish for having cut defense spending

I like the guy better every day
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yeah the only other person I would vote for other than Bernie sanders is kasich. Disappointing he can't garner more support among the crazies but hopefully he can out last Rubio or bush. Still baffled at how Cruz is doing so well.

 
bagger said:
Righetti said:
Right to Rise airing an attack ad against Kaish for having cut defense spending

I like the guy better every day
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yeah the only other person I would vote for other than Bernie sanders is kasich. Disappointing he can't garner more support among the crazies but hopefully he can out last Rubio or bush.
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Bovada now has Kaish the same POTUS odds as Jeb Bush. Hard to imagine that a few months ago.

http://www.oddsshark.com/entertainment/us-presidential-odds-2016-futures

 
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Similar to what I posted in the Trump thread...

Winner take all states, Trump has about 300-400 delegates sewn up unless he completely blunders. He has worked hard since last summer or his people are perhaps the best campaign chiefs we have ever seen.

Trump is around 40% of the vote Nationally so use that as a guide. 2,400+ delegates from the states, many are doled out on a % basis. Take 40% of the remaining 2,000 up for grabs and Trump now has 1,200 delegates which almost exactly what he needs to win.

Cruz might get 500 and that's generous. Based on him continuing to get 20% of those 2,000 delegates left. Then you have 3 more establishment candidates and probably none of them can gather more than about 400-500 each. Even if they drop out and leave one, it won't happen until likely after March 1st when 12 states vote. Then OH and FL and a couple other winner take all on March 15th.

There isn't enough time to try and beat what Trump started last summer. He was out there early, he hit hard from the start, he has carved it out the hard way. And the media gift wrapped a lot of air time for him.

I don't see how the math isn't strongly in Trump's favor.

 
cstu said:
Trump has about 300-400 delegates sewn up unless he completely blunders.
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I don't even know what a blunder would be for him.
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If he were caught boinking a campaign worker I don't think the undecideds would flock to him. Might piss off some of his unlikely but true female base he has right now. A lot of women surprisingly coming coming to Trump. I think female GOP just like his candidness, he reminds a lot of folks of their fathers, he really does. He has an Archie Bunker way about him, and even the racism that gets piled onto that character, he is quite similar.

If Trump were super rude to a poor person and it was caught on video, a Mitt Romney speech moment like in 2012 could derail him some. but you are correct, he can't do much wrong at the moment.

 
Trump is like Edwin Edwards. People love him because he's all out in the open with his warts and offensiveness. That doesn't mean he isn't hiding anything but it leads his supporters to believe he isnt. There are still Edwards supporters in Louisiana, even as a thrice indicted, once convicted 90 year old felon he could haul in 20% of the vote statewide today.

For Trump, it's like Edwards said: live boy or dead girl, that's pretty much it.

 
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SaintsInDome2006 said:
Trump is like Edwin Edwards. People love him because he's all out in the open with his warts and offensiveness. That doesn't mean he isn't hiding anything but it leads his supporters to believe he isnt. There are still Edwards supporters in Louisiana, even as a thrice indicted, once convicted 90 year old felon he could haul in 20% of the vote statewide today.

For Trump, it's like Edwards said: live boy or dead girl, that's pretty much it.
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He was actually indicted on 6 counts and found not guilty on one, 5 others were declared a mistrial by the judge. Edwards now is running a personal injury law firm'(that's right, ambulance chaser) with his daughter in N.C.

 
Ministry of Pain said:
SaintsInDome2006 said:
Trump is like Edwin Edwards. People love him because he's all out in the open with his warts and offensiveness. That doesn't mean he isn't hiding anything but it leads his supporters to believe he isnt. There are still Edwards supporters in Louisiana, even as a thrice indicted, once convicted 90 year old felon he could haul in 20% of the vote statewide today.

For Trump, it's like Edwards said: live boy or dead girl, that's pretty much it.
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He was actually indicted on 6 counts and found not guilty on one, 5 others were declared a mistrial by the judge. Edwards now is running a personal injury law firm'(that's right, ambulance chaser) with his daughter in N.C.
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Mon frere, you have the wrong Edwards. Edwin Edwards is the comp.

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
Trump is like Edwin Edwards. People love him because he's all out in the open with his warts and offensiveness. That doesn't mean he isn't hiding anything but it leads his supporters to believe he isnt. There are still Edwards supporters in Louisiana, even as a thrice indicted, once convicted 90 year old felon he could haul in 20% of the vote statewide today.

For Trump, it's like Edwards said: live boy or dead girl, that's pretty much it.
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Just read the Wikipedia entry to him, fascinating stuff

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
Ministry of Pain said:
SaintsInDome2006 said:
Trump is like Edwin Edwards. People love him because he's all out in the open with his warts and offensiveness. That doesn't mean he isn't hiding anything but it leads his supporters to believe he isnt. There are still Edwards supporters in Louisiana, even as a thrice indicted, once convicted 90 year old felon he could haul in 20% of the vote statewide today.

For Trump, it's like Edwards said: live boy or dead girl, that's pretty much it.
Click to expand...
He was actually indicted on 6 counts and found not guilty on one, 5 others were declared a mistrial by the judge. Edwards now is running a personal injury law firm'(that's right, ambulance chaser) with his daughter in N.C.
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Mon frere, you have the wrong Edwards. Edwin Edwards is the comp.
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My bad, I guess all great Edwards think alike.

 
Shtuff just got real.

Quick thoughts in a crass political context:

SCOTUS situation helps Cruz and Jeb;

I think it hurts Trump and Rubio

Neutral on Kasich

And looking at the side opposite it definitely helps Clinton imo.

-QG

 
Not sure how Scalia dying hurts Trump, failing to make the connection.

The American people spoke up in 2008 and 2012 voting for Obama and entrusting in him the authority to make decisions like appoint SCJs.

I think the GOP needs to calm down and not act like they are going to shut the country down if Obama appoints another progressive. I got news for you, he will and take great delight in it as will a large section of the population.

 
Simple, conservatives will want a conservative SC and who knows what Trump wants but if you want a clue look up the record of his judge sister whom he said would make a great SC justice.

Meanwhile Hillary gets a bump because of her self alleged winnability and it gives Dems a reason to turn out without Bernie.

 
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Ministry of Pain said:
Not sure how Scalia dying hurts Trump, failing to make the connection.

The American people spoke up in 2008 and 2012 voting for Obama and entrusting in him the authority to make decisions like appoint SCJs.

I think the GOP needs to calm down and not act like they are going to shut the country down if Obama appoints another progressive. I got news for you, he will and take great delight in it as will a large section of the population.
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Well, id say that no sane person should want Trump in charge of appointing an SC justice...but sane and voting for Trump already makes no sense...

 
bolzano said:
It's going to be interesting to see how this impacts Cruz/ Rubio. Cruz has to fight Obama's appointment, as it's his brand. Moreover, it gives him something to campaign on that will play well to primary voters. What will Rubio do though? Will he allow Cruz to push him on this issue, and play obstructionist? Will he stay out of it, with an eye towards the general, thereby boosting his electability argument?
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Yes.

 
Righetti said:
SaintsInDome2006 said:
Trump is like Edwin Edwards. People love him because he's all out in the open with his warts and offensiveness. That doesn't mean he isn't hiding anything but it leads his supporters to believe he isnt. There are still Edwards supporters in Louisiana, even as a thrice indicted, once convicted 90 year old felon he could haul in 20% of the vote statewide today.

For Trump, it's like Edwards said: live boy or dead girl, that's pretty much it.
Click to expand...
Just read the Wikipedia entry to him, fascinating stuff
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I liked how one is his opponents for office changed his name officially to "none of the above". That is some great schtick

 
Yankee23Fan said:
McConnell is an idiot. Priebus is scum. This party sucks. The Senate better do their job.
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McConnell is an idiot. But hopefully he doesn't #### this up. Maybe for once in his life he can actually get something right.

We can wait until next year for an appointment.

 
NorvilleBarnes said:
SaintsInDome2006 said:
This is the highest of high stakes elections.
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People say that every election.
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Yeah but this time it's actually true. Biggest election since 1968 in my opinion. Potential for far Left or far Right. Insiders versus outsiders. Obama years could be repudiated or they could be set in stone. The Supreme Court will be set for a generation, maybe even two. The national debt has to be addressed as it is close to hitting critical mass. Many political scientists are very concerned about what is going on geopolitically. The world economy is very shaky and there is a rise in protectionism. The Middle East is in shambles and the chess pieces there will continue to move in all sorts of dangerous ways. The stakes have never been higher in my opinion.
 
Why are people even suggesting on waiting? That is not a viable option at all and would only hurt Obama if he is not swift in his decision (give 3-4 weeks tops). To do so otherwise would be stupid and idiotic.

 
Mario Kart said:
Why are people even suggesting on waiting? That is not a viable option at all and would only hurt Obama if he is not swift in his decision (give 3-4 weeks tops). To do so otherwise would be stupid and idiotic.
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There is no need to :argue: on nominating as he has already said he would.Now the confirmation of that nomination is going to be something to watch.

It all comes down to the WHO.. if a moderate and republicans refuse to vote just because Obama nominated them then yea people need to get ticked off.

On the other hand if nominates a far left leaning judge and tries to force them in by saying the republicans need to do their job.. well then.. see you next year.

 
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Yankee23Fan said:
SIDA! said:
Yankee23Fan said:
McConnell is an idiot. Priebus is scum. This party sucks. The Senate better do their job.
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McConnell is an idiot. But hopefully he doesn't #### this up. Maybe for once in his life he can actually get something right. We can wait until next year for an appointment.
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No we can't. And that is a massively dangerous position to take.
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I agree but when WOULD it be acceptable to wait? Suppose this was September? Would it be OK for the Senate to stall then?
 
RnR said:
bolzano said:
It's going to be interesting to see how this impacts Cruz/ Rubio. Cruz has to fight Obama's appointment, as it's his brand. Moreover, it gives him something to campaign on that will play well to primary voters. What will Rubio do though? Will he allow Cruz to push him on this issue, and play obstructionist? Will he stay out of it, with an eye towards the general, thereby boosting his electability argument?
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Yes.
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Yes is the logical answer, but you have to consider the likelihood of Trump shutting up about any subject more than 15 minutes.

 
timschochet said:
Yankee23Fan said:
SIDA! said:
Yankee23Fan said:
McConnell is an idiot. Priebus is scum. This party sucks. The Senate better do their job.
Click to expand...
McConnell is an idiot. But hopefully he doesn't #### this up. Maybe for once in his life he can actually get something right. We can wait until next year for an appointment.
Click to expand...
No we can't. And that is a massively dangerous position to take.
Click to expand...
I agree but when WOULD it be acceptable to wait? Suppose this was September? Would it be OK for the Senate to stall then?
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The constitution had no such provision that says appointment to the supreme court depends on the time of year and election cycle. IF Ted Cruz and Mitch McConnell do what they are threatening they are doing the exact opposite of what Scalia held to as a jurist.

 
snogger said:
On the other hand if nominates a far left leaning judge and tries to force them in by saying the republicans need to do their job.. well then.. see you next year.
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And, if this happens, you won't like the result. Which would be a Dem rout in the elections.

 
cosjobs said:
SIDA! said:
Yankee23Fan said:
McConnell is an idiot. Priebus is scum. This party sucks. The Senate better do their job.
Click to expand...
McConnell is an idiot. But hopefully he doesn't #### this up. Maybe for once in his life he can actually get something right.

We can wait until next year for an appointment.
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Why do you hate the Constitution?
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I love the Constitution. It gives the Senate the power to delay. There is nothing unconstitutional about it.

 
Amazing a Republican can say the Iraq War was a mistake during the debate. It's a good thing. That would have been heresy not too long ago.

 
Mario Kart said:
snogger said:
On the other hand if nominates a far left leaning judge and tries to force them in by saying the republicans need to do their job.. well then.. see you next year.
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And, if this happens, you won't like the result. Which would be a Dem rout in the elections.
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Not buying it.. the country is as close to 50/50 now as it was during the Bush vs. Gore year and I don't see one issue changing that no matter how big/nasty the battle gets in the media IF that happens. :shrug:

 
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