Official 2016 GOP thread: Is it really going to be Donald Trump?? (3 Viewers)

[trader jake]

Earlier Rubio said "the constitution is not a living document"? Ugh.

Kind of hoping that line of thought was ending after today's events.

 

[dschuler]

The establishment force is strong in this crowd

 

[BustedKnuckles]

what a #### show

 

[Mario Kart]

On the other hand if nominates a far left leaning judge and tries to force them in by saying the republicans need to do their job.. well then.. see you next year.

And, if this happens, you won't like the result. Which would be a Dem rout in the elections.

Not buying it.. the country is as close to 50/50 now as it was during the Bush vs. Gore year and I don't see one issue changing that no matter how big/nasty the battle gets in the media IF that happens.

But, appointing a new judge is not an "issue" at all. It's the law of the land. 40/40/20 is the breakdown and the people in the "20" are not dumb people. One party holds up the law of the land from happening, that party is held accountable. November will be a landslide if either party holds this up. 125 days seems to be the number of days of a vacancy. Good luck with the "hold out" rhetoric.

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/02/13/mitch-mcconnell-supreme-court-vacancy-should-be-filled-after-election/=

 

[SIDA!]

On the other hand if nominates a far left leaning judge and tries to force them in by saying the republicans need to do their job.. well then.. see you next year.

And, if this happens, you won't like the result. Which would be a Dem rout in the elections.

Not buying it.. the country is as close to 50/50 now as it was during the Bush vs. Gore year and I don't see one issue changing that no matter how big/nasty the battle gets in the media IF that happens.

But, appointing a new judge is not an "issue" at all. It's the law of the land. 40/40/20 is the breakdown and the people in the "20" are not dumb people. One party holds up the law of the land from happening, that party is held accountable. November will be a landslide if either party holds this up. 125 days seems to be the number of days of a vacancy. Good luck with the "hold out" rhetoric.

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/02/13/mitch-mcconnell-supreme-court-vacancy-should-be-filled-after-election/=

If they appoint a liberal to take Scalia's place -- the GOP as a party is dead. It will not survive.

 

[Mario Kart]

If they appoint a liberal to take Scalia's place -- the GOP as a party is dead. It will not survive.

I don't think anyone wants some far lefty. However, no matter who Obama nominates, they won't be anywhere near Scalia in the political spectrum. That will bother some Righties but, I believe, the majority of people understand what does need to happen. The extremists will say otherwise and that is who we will be hearing in the next few days.

 

[Rove!]

This is the highest of high stakes elections.

All chips to middle of the table.

Every four years people complain about the quality of the candidates, but this time around, it has to be the worst ever

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Is there a reason Ben Carson will be standing up there tonight?

You're assuming he makes it onto the stage during introductions.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uafScAiaC44

 

[SameSongNDance]

If you're following this presidential election closely enough.. to the point where you're actually watching a debate on Saturday night, there's no way you wouldn't notice that Jeb stacked the audience. Jeb quite literally thinks Americans are ######ed.

 

[flapgreen]

It was terrible

 

[cosjobs]

McConnell is an idiot. Priebus is scum. This party sucks. The Senate better do their job.

McConnell is an idiot. But hopefully he doesn't #### this up. Maybe for once in his life he can actually get something right.

We can wait until next year for an appointment.

Why do you hate the Constitution?

I love the Constitution. It gives the Senate the power to delay. There is nothing unconstitutional about it.

I'm not familiar with this "delay clause." Please help me out with the Article/Section you are referencing

 

[cosjobs]

It was terrible

I missed Carly, they could have used her whole Cruella DeVille vibe

 

[snogger]

If they appoint a liberal to take Scalia's place -- the GOP as a party is dead. It will not survive.

I don't think anyone wants some far lefty. However, no matter who Obama nominates, they won't be anywhere near Scalia in the political spectrum. That will bother some Righties but, I believe, the majority of people understand what does need to happen. The extremists will say otherwise and that is who we will be hearing in the next few days.

On that part I think you are wrong.. The majority of people have no idea what "needs to happen"..

I had to go read up on what happens to upcoming cases, and what happens to existing cases that were heard but the decision hadn't been released yet to understand the ramifications of his passing as I had no idea.. and others in the Scalia thread were also slightly confused..

As clarification - at least this what I could find.. maybe others can find more information..

Upcoming cases like Obama's immigration Executive order will still be heard.. If the vote is 4-4, then the decision reverts to the lower courts and his executive order is thrown out.

Cases that were already heard are handled differently..

If the vote is 5-4, and his vote was the on the "5" side, then the case is removed and needs to be reheard.. Otherwise the decisions go through.

I think what it will come down to is which side gets more coverage..

If the "we can wait until the next president" coverage gets more push then the "We have to replace him NOW" coverage then the majority of people will say "let's wait, no need to rush"..

On the other hand, if the other side gets more coverage and "push" then they will follow that and scream for an appointment.

IMO, 40-50% of voters right now are sheep and follow what they are told, rather then educating themselves.. and that might be generous.

 

[snogger]

Here is what I could find in regards to existing, and upcoming cases

IMO, Obama should put up a nomination.. It's what he needs to do as President.

The Senate should at least take it up for a vote.. If they deny the nomination.. at least they actually voted on it.. People can disagree on HOW they voted, but not that they didn't vote..

If however they just delay, delay, delay then time for people to

 

[elbowrm]

I think the demographics make any battle waged on culture war grounds a victory for the dems, and the most emotional Supreme Court discussions are always culture war discussions. This also forces Trump's hand on social issues, which he has largely artfully sidestepped.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Trump has played this beautifully setting himself up as the anti-establishment guy. Those idiots booing him are actually helping his campaign.

 

[sho nuff]

CSPAN ‏@cspan

Pres Reagan "to fulfill our constitutional obligation of restoring" #SCOTUS to full strength http://cs.pn/243FKyr

It would be political suicide for any GOP senator to confirm Obama's replacement for Scalia, as he (or she) would almost certainly be primaried from the right, and lose. Ain't gonna happen

And if they hold it all up?

They may lose from the left.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Nate Silver Verified account ‏@NateSilver538

Debate winner (CBS/GfK poll):

Rubio 32%

Trump 24%

Kasich 19%

Cruz 12%

Carson 8%

Bush 5%

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-who-won-the-cbs-news-republican-debate-2016/ …

- I think this reveals the actual core support of Trump fans.

 

[Righetti]

Wow love to see Kasich at 19% in that poll regarding the winner of the debate. Hope his message is taken to heart and translates to votes and the crazies aren't allowed to run the asylum

 

[TripItUp]

Wow love to see Kasich at 19% in that poll regarding the winner of the debate. Hope his message is taken to heart and translates to votes and the crazies aren't allowed to run the asylum

His strategy to stay out of the fray may be working.

 

[timschochet]

I wonder if there's a feeling in the air after Scalia died- maybe people are saying "Damn it's time to get serious?" That would help Rubio or Bush and Clinton.

Just wondering, not predicting anything.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Is there a reason Ben Carson will be standing up there tonight?

but his ego won't let him quit. His quote the other day was "I'm in it unti I win"

Post-Iowa with the whole Cruz kerfuffle there actually was a big influx of $ into his campaign believe it or not.

For those who believe he' sincere - that outflow of support was enough to have him stay in - and normally campaigns crash out when the money dries up, not when the money comes in.

For those who believe it's a grift, well there's still scraps on the table to be had.

-QG

 

[QuizGuy66]

I am fascinated about how candidates have been able to stack debate audiences at times - Rand Paul was very good at this, particularly in the Vega$ debate. You'd think if they could game a ticketing process so effectively they'd be better at running a campaign but alas that has not been shown to be the case.

-QG

 

[NorvilleBarnes]

For those who believe it's a grift, well there's still scraps on the table to be had.

-QG

Yep

 

[QuizGuy66]

Just realized I liked 3 Yankee posts in a row and I'm starting to fear that one of us is going to have to move out of Jersey so that we can run on a ticket together if this craziness keeps up

-QG

 

[QuizGuy66]

If the GOP isn't careful they're going to lose the Senate as well as the Presidency.

Anyone have a feeling how a Trump nomination would affect the down-ticket races? What about Cruz?

The establishment/ political pundits are pushing the narrative that Trump/ Cruz would put the senate at risk due to their unpopularity with independents. That being said, I think that they are ignoring the possibility that Trump's base (or Cruz's) will not turn out for Rubio, Jeb, or Kasich.

Anyone do the math on how many states Trump can qualify for if they take the nomination away from him at the convention? Obviously it can't be 50 but I am curious. Also curious if there are provisions for either uncommitted elector slates or stand-ins as a proxy.

-QG

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

I am fascinated about how candidates have been able to stack debate audiences at times - Rand Paul was very good at this, particularly in the Vega$ debate. You'd think if they could game a ticketing process so effectively they'd be better at running a campaign but alas that has not been shown to be the case.

-QG

This was never an issue before, it's just Trumpites inventing conspiracies.

 

[Higgs]

I am fascinated about how candidates have been able to stack debate audiences at times - Rand Paul was very good at this, particularly in the Vega$ debate. You'd think if they could game a ticketing process so effectively they'd be better at running a campaign but alas that has not been shown to be the case.

-QG

This was never an issue before, it's just Trumpites inventing conspiracies.

GOPe http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/02/14/rnc-under-fire-over-debate-audience-stacking-as-local-gop-chairman-confirms-party-donors-get-debate-tickets/

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

I am fascinated about how candidates have been able to stack debate audiences at times - Rand Paul was very good at this, particularly in the Vega$ debate. You'd think if they could game a ticketing process so effectively they'd be better at running a campaign but alas that has not been shown to be the case.

-QG

This was never an issue before, it's just Trumpites inventing conspiracies.

GOPe http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/02/14/rnc-under-fire-over-debate-audience-stacking-as-local-gop-chairman-confirms-party-donors-get-debate-tickets/

That's so odd.... GOP contributors and volunteers at a GOP debate, what thuh.....http://m.wyff4.com/news/loyal-supporters-of-gop-granted-tickets-to-debate-in-greenville/37950532

 

[the moops]

If the GOP isn't careful they're going to lose the Senate as well as the Presidency.

Anyone have a feeling how a Trump nomination would affect the down-ticket races? What about Cruz?

The senate has always been in play. Dems have 10 seats up for grabs that they currently hold. There is only one (Nevada) that appears to be in play. Although I have heard Colorado might be in play. The rest are considered very safe.

Repubs have 24 seats up for reelection. Up to as many as 16 seats are in play.

Going to be one hell of an election season.

 

[Higgs]

It does favor the establishment candidates though. Last night's crowd was not representative of the polls. I'm not complaining, just explaining.

 

[Shula-holic]

Hard to believe some of the polls are showing Kasich ahead of Bush in SC. If Bush were to finish behind Kasich in a state like SC, I know he still has some money, but what would be the point in going on?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

South Carolina polls over the weekend...

Trump 37%

Cruz 17%

Rubio 14.5%

Kasich 10.5%

Bush 10%

I think the story here is Kasich going from total obscurity in South Carolina to now jumping up to 10%. Give him another week and maybe he can score another 2nd place, that would be huge for his campaign.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Kasich actually hit 15% in one poll done a couple days ago. Seems like he is gaining momentum that is not even being reported, that's not right.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Hard to believe some of the polls are showing Kasich ahead of Bush in SC. If Bush were to finish behind Kasich in a state like SC, I know he still has some money, but what would be the point in going on?

Agree, if he ends up last out of the 5. Bush ends up 5th in the state he said he would be strong, has to be time to close the tent up.

 

[RnR]

Nate Silver Verified account ‏@NateSilver538

Debate winner (CBS/GfK poll):

Rubio 32%

Trump 24%

Kasich 19%

Cruz 12%

Carson 8%

Bush 5%

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-who-won-the-cbs-news-republican-debate-2016/ …

At what cost? Rubio's ad hominems against Cruz (e.g., calling him a liar, challenging his Hispanic card) likely played well to the average, low information voter, but it's going to hurt him with the conservative base, most of whom are Cruz supporters or, at the very least, view him favorably.

I know lots of people who would consider themselves part of the conservative base. I've yet to find one that admits to liking Cruz. No idea what you're talking about.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

If Kasich comes in the top3, it's time to start having him stand right next to Trump. Maybe Kasich can stop reading his resume and just talk to us about what his plans are. He still bores me in spots and tends to revert to traditional rhetoric at times.

He also doesn't seem to have many fans from the state of Ohio on these boards, seems like a slight red flag to me.

 

[SameSongNDance]

Nate Silver Verified account ‏@NateSilver538

Debate winner (CBS/GfK poll):

Rubio 32%

Trump 24%

Kasich 19%

Cruz 12%

Carson 8%

Bush 5%

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-who-won-the-cbs-news-republican-debate-2016/ …

At what cost? Rubio's ad hominems against Cruz (e.g., calling him a liar, challenging his Hispanic card) likely played well to the average, low information voter, but it's going to hurt him with the conservative base, most of whom are Cruz supporters or, at the very least, view him favorably.

I know lots of people who would consider themselves part of the conservative base. I've yet to find one that admits to liking Cruz. No idea what you're talking about.

Yeah, conservatives don't like Cruz. Generally, humans don't like Cruz. I'm still bewildered by the fact the there are people actually voting for him.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Nate Silver Verified account ‏@NateSilver538

Debate winner (CBS/GfK poll):

Rubio 32%

Trump 24%

Kasich 19%

Cruz 12%

Carson 8%

Bush 5%

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-who-won-the-cbs-news-republican-debate-2016/ …

At what cost? Rubio's ad hominems against Cruz (e.g., calling him a liar, challenging his Hispanic card) likely played well to the average, low information voter, but it's going to hurt him with the conservative base, most of whom are Cruz supporters or at the very least view him favorably.

I know lots of people who would consider themselves part of the conservative base. I've yet to find one that admits to liking Cruz. No idea what you're talking about.

Then the "conservatives" you know are not representative of the conservative base, or even the GOP.

Trump is also viewed favorably by more than 6 in 10 of his party’s voters, pollsters found. He has a 67 percent favorability rating; Rubio's is 62 percent, and Cruz's is 61 percent.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/269229-poll-over-4-in-10-back-trump-nationwide

I have to say I'm surprised by the favorability numbers for Trump.

 

[timschochet]

I like Kasich, but what difference does it make how well he's doing if he's 20 points behind Trump? (Same for everybody else.)

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

I like Kasich, but what difference does it make how well he's doing if he's 20 points behind Trump? (Same for everybody else.)

He's still alive in the sweepstakes. And while Jeb seems to be striving to outlast everyone to be the lone governor in the race I don't think Kasich is going anywhere.

It's true with the DEM's too, it's almost like everyone just thinks it's the South left. Not true, eastern, midwest and western states have primaries too, both parties have long hauls in front of them.

 

[bigbottom]

Nate Silver Verified account ‏@NateSilver538

Debate winner (CBS/GfK poll):

Rubio 32%

Trump 24%

Kasich 19%

Cruz 12%

Carson 8%

Bush 5%

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-who-won-the-cbs-news-republican-debate-2016/

At what cost? Rubio's ad hominems against Cruz (e.g., calling him a liar, challenging his Hispanic card) likely played well to the average, low information voter, but it's going to hurt him with the conservative base, most of whom are Cruz supporters or, at the very least, view him favorably.

I know lots of people who would consider themselves part of the conservative base. I've yet to find one that admits to liking Cruz. No idea what you're talking about.

Yeah, conservatives don't like Cruz. Generally, humans don't like Cruz. I'm still bewildered by the fact the there are people actually voting for him.

A whole lot of tea party types support Cruz. He is seen as an uncompromising, anti-establishment ideologue. That's what they like. Carson's a snoozer, Trump is a liberal playing conservative for votes, and the rest are establishment. I think a bunch of people are seriously underestimating Cruz.

 

[NorvilleBarnes]

"Damn it's time to get serious?" That would help Rubio

I don't see it.

 

[SoBeDad]

 "Damn it's time to get serious?" That would help Rubio 

I don't see it.


George W will bring bigger crowds to his brother's campaign, but he won't help his brother at the poll. So, no chance for the 2 boys from Florida. That leaves Cruz, Kasich or Trump.  

 

[Smack Tripper]

Jeb just showed the best fire and speaking of his campaign.  And he looks better without the glasses.  May be too little too late but it was the first time I saw him look Presidential.  

If I were him, I would threaten perhaps even shove Trump the next time he attacks his family.

All bets are off in this race and that will resonate with the Trump voter that sees him as a wimp

 

[timschochet]

All the polls show Trump increasing his lead this morning, not just in South Carolina but in every state as well. Hard to see how Trump will not be the Republican nominee. 

 

[timschochet]

Cruz's numbers went down. 

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

All the polls show Trump increasing his lead this morning, not just in South Carolina but in every state as well. Hard to see how Trump will not be the Republican nominee. 

He's not going to be the nominee if he can't top 30-40 in any state.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Cruz's numbers went down. 

Tim, link? Which poll?

 

[The Commish]

Cruz's numbers went down. 

There's hope for this country yet