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Official 2016 GOP thread: Is it really going to be Donald Trump?? (1 Viewer)

SaintsInDome2006 said:
Sure but it's a problem for him, it's good as long as the rest of the field is fractured. He won't be a consensus nominee at this rate, he may not be nominee at all.
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Let me guess...the favorite to win the nomination is the guy who placed 3rd in Iowa and 5th in NH and might finish 3rd in SC?

Bush, Rubio and Kasich are in until the 15th when both Ohio and Florida vote. By the end of that night...half the states will voted.  And I love how the anti-Trumpers completely overlook the fact that Trump is going to outperform other GOPers in blue states. 

 

 
SIDA! said:
Let me guess...the favorite to win the nomination is the guy who placed 3rd in Iowa and 5th in NH and might finish 3rd in SC?

Bush, Rubio and Kasich are in until the 15th when both Ohio and Florida vote. By the end of that night...half the states will voted.  And I love how the anti-Trumpers completely overlook the fact that Trump is going to outperform other GOPers in blue states. 

 
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Well he's been in Iowa and NH so far and he hasn't done much, he has to get over 50 consistently to get momentum to win the nomination.

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
Well he's been in Iowa and NH so far and he hasn't done much, he has to get over 50 consistently to get momentum to win the nomination.
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I feel like I am literally in the twilight zone. You should probably stick to keeping us updated on the HRC email scandal. Because you aren't making any sense here.

Finishing 2nd with an ultra conservative evangelical electorate and first in NH while outperforming his poll numbers isn't "much"?  :lmao:

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
Sure but it's a problem for him, it's good as long as the rest of the field is fractured. He won't be a consensus nominee at this rate, he may not be nominee at all.
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It is such a huge problem, just like the problem that Donald absorbed over 80% of the votes from the prior candidates who dropped out. 

 
Not a fan of Jeb but he's a beaten man and I feel a little bad for him.

About as normal the GOP candidates were this year, Trump's whipping boy, killed by his own party in favor of Rubio. Guy would have made a pretty decent and smart candidate IMO (compared to the rest of the field) and definitely a way better Pres than his idiot brother.

Guy has been nothing but classy this election "season". /tip of the cap 

 
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John Bender said:
Not a fan of Jeb but he's a beaten man and I feel a little bad for him.

About as normal the GOP candidates were this year, Trump's whipping boy, killed by his own party in favor of Rubio. Guy would have made a pretty decent and smart candidate IMO (compared to the rest of the field) and definitely a way better Pres than his idiot brother.

Guy has been nothing but classy this election "season". /tip of the cap 
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Jeb would have been way better than W.

 
Loan Sharks said:
It is such a huge problem, just like the problem that Donald absorbed over 80% of the votes from the prior candidates who dropped out. 
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Yeah? Well he shows up as 2nd choice for only 10% if other GOP voters in the polls.

Look past GOP nominees have won with under 40 in many states but ultimately towards the end they gain consensus and become the choice of the far greater majority.

Trump's candidacy is almost entirely built on his personality, just him really, no policies, no agenda, and most people aren't going to just start liking him. He's not some standard bearer for the party. Even if he gets the nom is support is just as tepid as those other guys who were puttering along winning in the 30s-40s.

 
If Jeb would have listened to me a month and a half ago, he wouldn't have spent $40 million of his superpacks :moneybag:  

They could have given that money to Mozambique to feed the entire country for a month. 

 
Jeb dropping out is definitely good for Rubio.  I think Carson's support would go to Cruz, and I hope Carson stays in just to stick to him, a) for that nonsense in Iowa, and b) because Cruz is a slimy sack of ####.  He's so awful that I'd even vote for a Clinton over him. 

 
Through all of this circus, how is it that Cruz is the biggest clown here?

At least Trump doesn't try to hide the fact that he thinks you are all morons.

 
Ghost Rider said:
Jeb dropping out is definitely good for Rubio.  I think Carson's support would go to Cruz, and I hope Carson stays in just to stick to him, a) for that nonsense in Iowa, and b) because Cruz is a slimy sack of ####.  He's so awful that I'd even vote for a Clinton over him. 
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He's a real pos

 
John Bender said:
Not a fan of Jeb but he's a beaten man and I feel a little bad for him.

About as normal the GOP candidates were this year, Trump's whipping boy, killed by his own party in favor of Rubio. Guy would have made a pretty decent and smart candidate IMO (compared to the rest of the field) and definitely a way better Pres than his idiot brother.

Guy has been nothing but classy this election "season". /tip of the cap 
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#### Jeb Bush.  He wasted all that money. I despise him as a human being.  

 
I get the Rubio speech, he got what he needed in Jeb dropping out to at least have a fighting shot going forward.  I think that is a win for him.  

For Cruz, this isn't good, no two ways about it.  He lost to Rubio in a largely evangelical state while Jeb Bush was actually still in the race.  Serious questions for him now where exactly he wins without any momentum at all headed into the South.  He can say whatever he wants to, but there is no plausible path for Cruz without winning evangelical states.

 
Loan Sharks said:
Kasich voters would almost all go to Trump IMO, the exit profile graphic I saw on TV show a lot of Trump overlap.
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Kasich supporters feel like outsiders even though Mr Ohio is actually establishment. 

-Bush 8%...some will slide to Rubio but remember Bush has blasted Rubio, spent $40M telling everyone how bad he is...wouldn't look for a super surge for Rubio yet. 

-If and when Kasich bows out and I don't think he is quite done, I would see a slight uptick for Trump and Kasich likely to endorse him IMO. 

Trump 40%

Rubio 30%

Cruz 20-25%

Carson and field 5-10%

It's going to be hard for Rubio who isn't that liked to suddenly start handing Trump his lunch. The problem from the start has been no real alternative to Trump's TV Pop persona to even make it as the GOP leader. I'm sure Bruce Willis could have done the same had he desired to be President. Die Hard 2016!

 
Did anyone see the moment Bush stated he was suspending his campaign?

:lmao:

Crowd acts shocked and Bush does his best funny moment yet with...

"Oh yeah, Oh yeah" and it's filled with so much emotion like "Please Please, don't embarrass yourselves, I've finished almost dead last and pissed away $100M from the SuperPacs, I'll be lucky if I don't end up in the Potomac by morning"

:lmao:

About 20 seconds in

 
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Ministry of Pain said:
Kasich supporters feel like outsiders even though Mr Ohio is actually establishment. 

-Bush 8%...some will slide to Rubio but remember Bush has blasted Rubio, spent $40M telling everyone how bad he is...wouldn't look for a super surge for Rubio yet. 

-If and when Kasich bows out and I don't think he is quite done, I would see a slight uptick for Trump and Kasich likely to endorse him IMO. 

Trump 40%

Rubio 30%

Cruz 20-25%

Carson and field 5-10%

It's going to be hard for Rubio who isn't that liked to suddenly start handing Trump his lunch. The problem from the start has been no real alternative to Trump's TV Pop persona to even make it as the GOP leader. I'm sure Bruce Willis could have done the same had he desired to be President. Die Hard 2016!
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Trump's unfavorable number among Republicans is 31%, Rubio's is 16.

Trump is +31 fav/unfav among GOP.

Rubio is +50.

 
Ministry of Pain said:
Kasich supporters feel like outsiders even though Mr Ohio is actually establishment. 

-Bush 8%...some will slide to Rubio but remember Bush has blasted Rubio, spent $40M telling everyone how bad he is...wouldn't look for a super surge for Rubio yet. 

-If and when Kasich bows out and I don't think he is quite done, I would see a slight uptick for Trump and Kasich likely to endorse him IMO. 

Trump 40%

Rubio 30%

Cruz 20-25%

Carson and field 5-10%

It's going to be hard for Rubio who isn't that liked to suddenly start handing Trump his lunch. The problem from the start has been no real alternative to Trump's TV Pop persona to even make it as the GOP leader. I'm sure Bruce Willis could have done the same had he desired to be President. Die Hard 2016!
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That seems a little contradictory to me.  I do not see him in the Trump camp, unless he lasts long enough to the point that it is clear Trump will be the nominee.  I think Kasich will play loyal party politics and fall in line with whomever the party ends up nominating, perhaps angling for a VP spot.   But hey, I've been wrong before. I expected Trump to be out of this race long ago.

 
Trump 35% in NH, 32% in SC.  I don't see him getting higher than this. Who would switch to him after their candidate dropped out?

Carson 7% stole from Cruz in SC. Carson appeals to the very religous.  They aren't moving to Trump unless Trump announced Carson as his VP.

When Cruz or Rubio dropout, those will go the winner here for party line reasons. Probably the same for Kasich.

 
Yeah Rubio might beat Trump if it was just the two of them.  But Cruz being in there splits the vote up and by the time Cruz drops out its too late.

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
Yeah? Well he shows up as 2nd choice for only 10% if other GOP voters in the polls.

Look past GOP nominees have won with under 40 in many states but ultimately towards the end they gain consensus and become the choice of the far greater majority.

Trump's candidacy is almost entirely built on his personality, just him really, no policies, no agenda, and most people aren't going to just start liking him. He's not some standard bearer for the party. Even if he gets the nom is support is just as tepid as those other guys who were puttering along winning in the 30s-40s.
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Trumps candidacy is built on some policies

1  - crackdown on illegal immigration

2 - crackdown on muslims

it's built on those two things plus

3 perception that he can help the economy

4 perception as an outsider not afraid to go off script.

those first two are as legitimate of policy positions as anybody else has proposed....

i hate him, but he dies have policy proposals...

 
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