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*** Official 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread *** (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Mjolnirs
- Start date
The Ref
Footballguy
Brady Marino
Footballguy
I dunno, if the eye splits the costs of both Cuba and S Florida, not sure if it loses THAT much strength.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
Holy #### - 175 mph, CAT 5. God bless the Caribbean Islands and Florida. Stay safe Fla FBGs.
JaxBill
Footballguy
That's nothing. Hotel rooms in Valdosta GA are booked for Saturday/Sunday and some models have it passing directly overhead!
Big Blue Wrecking Crew
downsized
Any SC FBGs in here? My son is at Coastal Carolina, so just wondering about sources for news specific to that area in order to plan.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
If it does go straight up the state then how strong could it be when it got to Jacksonville and Valdosta?
JaxBill
Footballguy
There's nothing elevation-wise in the state until you get to Ocala and parts near Tampa. Storm is wide enough to draw warm water from either coast not to mention Lake Okeechoboee,
Yeah, it might "only" be a Cat3/2 by the time it hit Valdosta but riding out that storm in a Valdosta motel room isn't on bucket list.
JaxBill
Footballguy
Ditkaless Wonders
Footballguy
Have very infirm parents in Naples, Dad in the Hospital and Mom not really able to care for herself.
culdeus
Footballguy
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
Ditkaless Wonders
Footballguy
Wondering whether I can fly into Atlanta maybe on Thursday night, late, after surgery, drive to Naples at night or early morning, and get out back to Atlanta or thereabouts ahead of the storm.
Don Quixote
Footballguy
Man, FEMA is already stretched thin with Harvey. Hopefully adding, potentially, USVI, Puerto Rico, and Florida as disaster areas does not break it.
GregR
Footballguy
Don't forget to fill up your bathtubs prior to the storm. In addition to drinking water if needed, you could use it for bathing, or grab a bucket and use it to flush the toilets with if the water goes out.
And charge anything that needs charging. Electric camping lights, phones, tablets, portable phone rechargers, etc.
And charge anything that needs charging. Electric camping lights, phones, tablets, portable phone rechargers, etc.
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Senor Schmutzig
Footballguy
Sitting at my desk here in Miami realizing that there won't be a lot of productivity in the office this week. If people aren't looking at SpaghettiModels.com, TropicalTidbits.com, Wunderground, etc, they are talking about it non-stop.
I gotta say....lots of people are #####. You know damn well you have old ladies buying 8 cases of water when they would be fine with 2 cases and then mom and her kids go in the store and wala....no water for them.
Consider this a PSA, FL people. Please take what you need and not too much in excess. Think of of your fellow neighbor who will need it.
I work in Naples. Let me know if I can help.
(If it looks bad, I might be loading up the family and leaving Friday night or Saturday morning).
Senor Schmutzig
Footballguy
I bought some water (6 gallons + 24-pack) before we left for the Labor Day weekend anticipating that we may have to deal with this sometime this week. Also filled up both cars with gas. Need to see if I can scavenge another propane tank for the grill from somewhere. We still have 6-8 gallons left over from last years planning.
I bought a generator last year that I never even took out of the box. I'll have to give that one a test run this week as well as charge the portable drill batteries in anticipation of putting up the hurricane shutters.
I bought a generator last year that I never even took out of the box. I'll have to give that one a test run this week as well as charge the portable drill batteries in anticipation of putting up the hurricane shutters.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
What does this mean? Are you saying it would hit Tampa as a CAT 5 and then go south and hit Miami as a CAT 3 and then head up the Atlantic shore line and hit Charleston as a CAT 2?
My co-worker just turned off our office radio and turned on the weather channel on TV.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
As bad as the destruction will be in the States it seems like some of the Caribbean Islands are about to get destroyed. :(
Ditkaless Wonders
Footballguy
So by current models one can get in and out on Friday, with some presumed heavy traffic to deal with, but still get in and out? My folks are in Tarpon Cove, maybe just over a mile from the estuaries, and a mile and a half to two from open ocean. I think they are only four feet above sea level, but then again that might be true of half of Florida.
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GregR
Footballguy
Don't forget you can fill up all your tupperware containers and such. I use gallon jugs of distilled water with my cpap machine, and keep the jug after to fill from the tap in moments like this. Had about 13 gallons of water in all, plus two full bathtubs, without having to buy any. Anything clean with a lid will serve.
Gawain
Footballguy
This is the argument for price gouging. If water was $10.00 a case, only those folks that really were short would purchase.
When there's no disincentive to purchase, there are no goods reserved for those who may truly need them.
Ditkaless Wonders
Footballguy
Problem solved. My kid brother is going down. His daughter, my niece, will stay with us, I give him my truck, and he will go down starting this afternoon. He should arrive on Thursday and be able to make decisions from there. The truck is fairly capable. Full size Ram with oversized tires and a two inch lift kit, so it rides fairly high. Ill put the snorkel on this afternoon, and the topper. I've contacted the grounds crew at their place. They have the code to the garage. I have some racks out there they can quickly assemble inside and get all the furniture 3 & 1/2 feet off the floor. It only takes about four hours for two guys. They only charge $200 a piece to put things up. The same for undoing things after. If my brother can get their cars up into a 2nd story garage we know of and get the folks to Atlanta or better yet Memphis things should be good.
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culdeus
Footballguy
yes, Most of the models are now pushing eastward with the new data. About 24 hours from knowing more or less with certainty what is going to happen +/- 200 miles.
With the cold front coming in it is a near lock this thing pushes back out to the atlantic and then makes a second landfall up the coast, still quite strong.
If the cold front does not come in as strong then looking at just raking up florida and into georgia, but nearly no models predict this now. The cold front has held together well.
Senor Schmutzig
Footballguy
Although we are only .5 mile from the water, we are located along a limestone "ridge" in Miami Dade county that puts us at 11-12' above sea level. Won't have to worry about local flooding but a storm surge??? That would have to be one hell of a surge.
Doug B
Footballguy
FEMA's acid test was 2005 -- Katrina, Rita, and Wilma all hit within five weeks. 2005 was three U.S. top-10s in one season. Wilma is kind of a forgotten storm ... FL's #2 all time by dollars after Andrew.
2005's silver lining for FEMA, besides ushering in professional disaster managers in upper-level positions, was that the number of disaster-response and recovery staff essentially tripled agency wide. FEMA has had a large reserve staff ever since, and many of them have been brought to bear for Harvey.
Harvey and Irma could be two U.S. top-5s within three weeks. A huge response challenge to be sure.
Ditkaless Wonders
Footballguy
Every couple of years we deal with the possibility. Only once have my parents experienced flooding that infiltrated their home, and only once window damage. Those windows have been massively upgraded.
Still, better safe than sorry.
Still, better safe than sorry.
Ditkaless Wonders
Footballguy
Wow, that is a far better predicament than most. Strange to me, living in Colorado, to think of an extra 7 to 8 feet of elevation being significant, but Florida, Louisiana, Houston, that is the difference between devastation and just riding things out.
Doug B
Footballguy
Not sure what time the hurricane hunters will have data back from their jet stream flight today. The first set of tracks that come out tomorrow morning should be a lot firmer.
Ditkaless Wonders
Footballguy
Do Republican Presidents cause hurricanes?
culdeus
Footballguy
6pm on 9/11 by Euro
Entire peninsula sees hurricane level winds. Eye near tampa.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DI9bMqJUMAAfsqA.jpg:large
Entire peninsula sees hurricane level winds. Eye near tampa.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DI9bMqJUMAAfsqA.jpg:large
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
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Insoxicated
####. My folks live in Tampa. Telling them to pack the #### up and get up to Memphis to stay with me.
Link to this, GB?
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Rather than joining the panic and trying to find bottled water, fill your bathtubs and other containers ahead of time and buy a couple of LifeStraw Steels
ETA: Or better yet, leave if you're on the coast.
ETA: Or better yet, leave if you're on the coast.
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culdeus
Footballguy
All the models will refresh at 2pm today +/-. This will put it 6 days out from landfall. 6 days is still a little too early to project true danger. Wait for those, they will incorporate the HH flights both into the front and the storm this morning.
Tomorrow at 2pm +/- will have as much accuracy as you can hope to expect. This is when the evac orders come.
At 2pm today you have a legit week to run.
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Insoxicated
Thanks GB. I'll keep eyes peeled in here today. My brother, his wife, and my two neices are in Palm City over on the east side. Apparently she is required to stay onsite for her job (all director level folks are mandatory at work for some insane reason). He's considering fleeing to the folks' place with the girls IF it looks like an east coast hit. Looking less likely now.
culdeus
Footballguy
Don't want to scare you but it's gonna be bad no matter where it hits. Cane level winds will extend more than 300 miles.
Peak landfall winds could reach 170. If it doesn't get a bite taken out in cuba could go north of that and approach Camille territory.
I mean that model has Tampa seeing 162. I don't know how high winds have to get to flatten residential structures.
urbanhack
Fight The Power!
And now there is a pretty bad wildfire just to the east of Portland that is calling for evacuations of small towns to the east. If this keeps moving, there are going to be thousands and thousands of people and homes effected. This could become a larger problem as right now it is zero percent contained.
Senor Schmutzig
Footballguy
7-8 feet is considerable in Miami Dade County considering the highest elevation in the 2000 sq mile area is at 20ft.
