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*** Official 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread *** (1 Viewer)

That GFS model if correct would put a sub 900mb cane to the SE of Miami with never before seen winds.  So yeah, I guess you have a look at what the world looks like with a Cuba landfall or without.  Without is the Florida is for all intents and purposes wiped of all living organisms up to about miami beach.  

edit, and a 2nd landfall at charleston as a Cat 3!

And a 3rd landfall somewhere in CT as a near Cat 1, because why not right?

jesus

 
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Senor Schmutzig said:
Sitting at my desk here in Miami realizing that there won't be a lot of productivity in the office this week. If people aren't looking at SpaghettiModels.com, TropicalTidbits.com, Wunderground, etc, they are talking about it non-stop. 
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Should probably be leaving, no?

 
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905136481035046912

Bottom line, Euro hasn't changed from midnight and the NHS loves it.  

Euro has this thing just crushing cuba, turning right and up the east coast making landfall as Cat4+/943mb. 

GFS is the absolute superstorm that will end life as everyone knows it.  They are now on an island, most models released at noon are now getting in step with Euro.

Following this stuff is amazing, I do risk studies for a living and getting real time stats coming in is wild.

 
I promised myself I wouldn't get caught up in all this and try not to worry

i'm starting to break the promise I made to myself

 
jeebus... Antigua/Barbuda, St Barths, St Maarten... this is going to be bad. some of my favorite places...

really hoping for the best for all those in the way of this thing. don't #### around and take chances- stay safe friends!

 
Newest models (other than UKMET and CLP5) are tracking further west again.  Any further and we'll have one of the strongest storms ever on record traveling over the Gulf for some unspecified period of time before landfall.  Not good.

 
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Kal El said:
Personally, even as a Floridian, it's somebody else's turn in the barrel.
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I think we're all saying that down on the Gulf Coast, too  :(   These things didn't come so often or so hard in the 70s and 80s (until Hugo, anyway).

 
Henry Ford said:
Newest models (other than UKMET and CLP5) are tracking further west again.  Any further and we'll have one of the strongest storms ever on record traveling over the Gulf for some unspecified period of time before landfall.  Not good.
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At that link, I'm still seeing the same 11 a.m. EDT models I've been looking at the last few hours. Are you seeing something newer?

 
Doug B said:
At that link, I'm still seeing the same 11 a.m. EDT models I've been looking at the last few hours. Are you seeing something newer?
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If you click "computer models" you get models "interpolated to Tue 2:00 pm EDT"

(they're mislabeled as 11 AM EDT at the top)

 
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Henry Ford said:
Newest models (other than UKMET and CLP5) are tracking further west again.  Any further and we'll have one of the strongest storms ever on record traveling over the Gulf for some unspecified period of time before landfall.  Not good.
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Looks about in line with the previous model run to me. There's that one pesky HWRF one, though, that has it pretty much missing FL to enter the Gulf.

 
Doug B said:
Looks about in line with the previous model run to me. There's that one pesky HWRF one, though, that has it pretty much missing FL to enter the Gulf.
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They've moved a few degrees west. It's not a huge jump over that four hours, but they've all been pushing slowly west for days.

 
Bacon is Delicious said:
Irma really cranked West. huh? Or was it always expected to do that?
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Its track has been moving progressively west since Day One. 5 days or so ago, there was no real idea of when it might turn northward and some models back then had it just staying out over open ocean. As time has passed, the potential steering currents (cold front coming down, etc.) are becoming better defined.

 
Is it just me or is this thing going to need to turn soon to miss Puerto Rico to the North like the models say?

 
Henry Ford said:
They've moved a few degrees west. It's not a huge jump over that four hours, but they've all been pushing slowly west for days.
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Some models yesterday morning had landfall in the FL panhandle, then those were walked back east by the time I went to bed last night.

 
Doug B said:
Some models yesterday morning had landfall in the FL panhandle, then those were walked back east by the time I went to bed last night.
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Yeah, I'm not talking Ensemble Models - one of the members had it hitting New Orleans directly last night.  Particularly AEMI and NGX2 have bumped slightly westward every time there's an update.

 
JaxBill said:
Is it just me or is this thing going to need to turn soon to miss Puerto Rico to the North like the models say?
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It would have to turn right about now to spare Puerto Rico. All models have the eye raking Puerto Rico's northern coast, differing only slightly  in how far north it will pass from that coast.

 
Huh, then after a 30 seconds or so it shifts to Saturday.  Don't know why it's doing that, but for the first 30 seconds or so it's this image.

 
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[icon] said:
Wait.... that is showing 50ft waves with this thing? 

What would that mean once it gets into the gulf..surely it won't be generating 50ft waves into Tampa or Ft Meyers.... 
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I wouldn't think so. Water level is a lot shallower.

 
As a Canadian and no experience with hurricanes I find this fascinating and terrifying. 

Can't imagine what it is like watching this and wondering if it will break correctly, or hit your city with catastrophic impact. 

Worried about my friends in St Marten, a favourite place for me to visit but it looks like it will get hit hard. 

 
The Duff Man said:
As a Canadian and no experience with hurricanes I find this fascinating and terrifying. 

Can't imagine what it is like watching this and wondering if it will break correctly, or hit your city with catastrophic impact. 

Worried about my friends in St Marten, a favourite place for me to visit but it looks like it will get hit hard. 
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Yeah, that's a bad place to be right now.  Outer bands hit a couple hours ago.

 
[icon] said:
Wait.... that is showing 50ft waves with this thing? 

What would that mean once it gets into the gulf..surely it won't be generating 50ft waves into Tampa or Ft Meyers.... 
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Big sandbars will take down the waves.  Same can't be said for the islands.  

 
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