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*** Official 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread *** (1 Viewer)

Crap, I hope Disney doesn't get messed up.  I just realized that and now I'm really nervous.  Love me some Typhoon Lagoon. 

 
There was a great message board someone posted on here during Matthew.  They were total nerds and it was great.  Anyone know what I'm talking about?  Tia

 
JaxBill said:
Yeah, that's one the reasons I'm grappling with what to do with son at USF. He is ready to drive to Jacksonville tomorrow then evac with us to Pensacola if needed.

Current plan is to check 5am NHC tomorrow and possibly tell him to stay put and ride it out.
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No way I'd pull my kid out of there and put on the roads given all the traffic.  Probably one of the safest places to be is stay right where he is at.

 
Welp......the hope is it stay offshore to the east in the Atlantic.

I think we know nothing till tomorrow night......Friday afternoon...maybe even Friday night. Things can change fast. The cone of uncertainty is huge.

Fingers crossed this thing pulls out far enough to sea that we simply get some tropical storm like conditions.....which is a typical afternoon squall down here in the summer.

 
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i have a daughter at Univ of Tampa, and stays at the nearby hotel they use for dorms.

They have a bunch of kids that are there, most of whom cant leave, we live in jersey.

I am thinking / hoping this thing stays mostly east, and they get a bunch of rain with some med winds.

 
John Bender said:
ETA I see the NOAA cone around SC at 2 PM Monday, this thing is huge though, meaning the outer bands could almost certainly be affecting all the way up to DC by midnight
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My current itinerary has me connecting in DC en route back to Charlotte Monday afternoon.  Somehow, I think that changes.

 
DreamTheater said:
i have a daughter at Univ of Tampa, and stays at the nearby hotel they use for dorms.

They have a bunch of kids that are there, most of whom cant leave, we live in jersey.

I am thinking / hoping this thing stays mostly east, and they get a bunch of rain with some med winds.
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They can't leave? My niece is at UT as well, my brother has her on a flight home tomorrow. 

 
The Dr. on TWC just said a 4-day forecast can be off 175 mile, greater than the width of Florida - basically, if anybody is telling you that it will miss west or east is full of #### as we just don't know yet.  I'd be getting the hell out of dodge.

 
They are saying this has stayed at 185 mph for 36 hours - basically doubling the record for longest time for CAT 5 (180+) Atlantic hurricane.

My question is this - if it's stayed CAT 5 this long is there any reason it couldn't stay CAT 5 all the way to a landfall in Miami?  Other than it being unprecented is there something that will slow it?

 
For those of you staying in the path, I've added a Hurricane Irma roll call thread.  I know I (and probably others) will appreciate hearing you're all alive and well while this thing rolls through, especially if it gets bad. 

 
AAABatteries said:
They are saying this has stayed at 185 mph for 36 hours - basically doubling the record for longest time for CAT 5 (180+) Atlantic hurricane.

My question is this - if it's stayed CAT 5 this long is there any reason it couldn't stay CAT 5 all the way to a landfall in Miami?  Other than it being unprecented is there something that will slow it?
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They just talked about it. If the eyewall goes through replacement, it could slow down. Also as it approaches land it could get stretched out and lose soeed.

 
Billy Bats said:
They can't leave? My niece is at UT as well, my brother has her on a flight home tomorrow. 
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well...yes they can...I can get her on a flight on Sunday am and back on wed.

I have plenty of family in the area, Tampa, Sarasota. All staying, saying it wont be as bad on the west coast as they are making it out to be. She can always go there, if she wanted to site in traffic for 1/2 day for a 45 min ride.  And she can stuck on 275 / 75 with no gas.

She is going to stay with her floor mates. I am thinking that hotel might be one of the safest places there is if built right.

maybe I am naive...who knows....We lived through Sandy.

 
AAABatteries said:
They are saying this has stayed at 185 mph for 36 hours - basically doubling the record for longest time for CAT 5 (180+) Atlantic hurricane.

My question is this - if it's stayed CAT 5 this long is there any reason it couldn't stay CAT 5 all the way to a landfall in Miami?  Other than it being unprecented is there something that will slow it?
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Land interaction with Cuba

 
Since @culdeus isn't around for his usual model update, the latest GFS is keeping Irma from directly hitting Miami, and staying offshore about 30 miles or so. Then a run up the Florida coast a little further out, and then turning in and making landfall around Georgetown, SC. This would be a better run for Florida, and horrible for SC/NC, but that is how these things go. Keep in mind the GFS has been the model that has favored this slightly more eastern track, and the Euro has been more western, and it doesn't run for another couple of hours. Also, models are just tools, this really falls into the margin of error and the cone will likely remain similar. It really is only going to take a 50 mile swing east or west to change the fortunes of many.

 
Yeah, slight shift East here in the few latest runs.

Looking worse and worse for Virginia.  3 more hours til flight leaves.  Still 50/50 if I'm going or not.

 
John Bender said:
Yeah, slight shift East here in the few latest runs.

Looking worse and worse for Virginia.  3 more hours til flight leaves.  Still 50/50 if I'm going or not.
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Here is a wind tool showing earliest reasonable, or most likely times that tropical storm force winds will reach a place. 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/235728.shtml?mltoa34#contents

Keep in mind that depending on the track, some of the places along those lines won't get any tropical storm force winds. 

 
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John Bender said:
Oh ####.  8 am Monday for me.  That's pretty bad for a 10 pm flight
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That is earliest reasonable. Most likely is not showing a time yet for Richmond (see the buttons). Again, this is only if the storm is headed in that direction (the forecasts I have seen are directing it more inland towards my neck of the woods in WNC). I can't tell you what to do. But if I could ensure that someone could go by my house on Tuesday, I would go to Vegas. It is a calculated risk, but you are well inland and on the periphery of the projected track.

 
SoBeDad said:
I work in a Miami Beach hospital and there is panic among many of my co-workers who plan to drive north. Many are not sure where to go. A few made hotel accommodations days ago, but most have no specific place to go. They could run out of gas on I-95, I-75 or the turnpike, or have to wait in line for hours to get gas. They might not find a hotel with availability. Or they could drive into the worst of the storm.  I'm talking about people who live 5 or more miles inland and have CBS houses with storm shutters. I live in a dorm type housing where i work on Miami Beach, with new hurricane impact windows on the second floor. Most of the residents, including myself, plan to stay. The 2nd floor is about 15 feet above the ground, perhaps 19 feet above Biscayne Bay.  
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#### like this is why I shake my head when idiots on this board mock people who prepare for #### like this with fuel cans, water supplies, etc. 

fuel jerry cans cost $50 max for 5gal units. Keep 3-4 empty. Top them off at the first sign of trouble. Use them to fill your car next week if trouble passes. 

5gal water cannisters run about $5-10ea.

Its not hard to be prepared for the basics. 

Not talking smack st those who aren't prepared... more toward those who perpetuate the stigma that those who are, are crazy/paranoid. Especially if you live in harms way. 

 
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Kilgore Trout said:
Since @culdeus isn't around for his usual model update, the latest GFS is keeping Irma from directly hitting Miami, and staying offshore about 30 miles or so. Then a run up the Florida coast a little further out, and then turning in and making landfall around Georgetown, SC. This would be a better run for Florida, and horrible for SC/NC, but that is how these things go. Keep in mind the GFS has been the model that has favored this slightly more eastern track, and the Euro has been more western, and it doesn't run for another couple of hours. Also, models are just tools, this really falls into the margin of error and the cone will likely remain similar. It really is only going to take a 50 mile swing east or west to change the fortunes of many.
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So it goes, but the less time on land the better.  Targeting the Horry county area this far out gives me hope it gets pushed even further.  Gulfstream is a powerful, helpful mother####er. 

 
Slapdash said:
So it goes, but the less time on land the better.  Targeting the Horry county area this far out gives me hope it gets pushed even further.  Gulfstream is a powerful, helpful mother####er. 
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Technically that would be Georgetown county, but close enough.

 
Euro model is out, and is more west once again. Landfall right around Miami, then staying along or just inland along the coast of Florida. Would be very bad for South Florida if this is the path. Can't tell if it gets back out over water around Jacksonville, but it goes back inland south of Savannah. All caveats apply.

https://imgur.com/2u4WGq7

 
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Henry Ford said:
For those of you staying in the path, I've added a Hurricane Irma roll call thread.  I know I (and probably others) will appreciate hearing you're all alive and well while this thing rolls through, especially if it gets bad. 
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wtf do we do if someone dies?

 
Uruk-Hai said:
Is the yellow building the restaurant?

I can't imagine the orders-of-magnitude involved in the logistics of a recovery/rebuild on a tiny island like this as compared to a giant land mass like the U.S. (where, if you can open up highways, an endless train of resources can be brought in).
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just before it.  there is a white signpost similar to a real estate for sign post.  that's the restaurant.

 
Orlando International Airport shutting down at 5pm on Saturday. I did see that until then, JetBlue has capped prices of all direct flights leaving Florida at $99. Orlando-Sanford airport still operating, no time listed for shutdown as of now.

 
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A little further west and this storm could take almost the same track Donna did in 1960.I was 5 and I still remember my father putting the bookcase in front of our front windows that had blown out.

 
I managed to find gas to top off my wife's gas tank. I will look for gas for my car after the morning rush. A lot of stations around here running out.

 
I saw a good tip on the news for securing your garage door if you have a pick-up and a long board...

Pull your truck into the garage with the bed end near the garage door. Close the door and put the long board vertically against the door (have someone it for a second). Then slowly back up the pickup until the weight is pressing against the board and door.  

Never did it personally but sounds like it would definitely help keep your garage door intact.

 
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