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*** Official 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread *** (1 Viewer)

Nice summary from reddit 

What happened overnight?

The models are all centered around Florida. The GFS trended slightly west from 00z to show a graze to the east coast of Florida. The Euro held it's serve and shows a direct impact to the Miami area before moving offshore along Florida's northern coast. The UKMet, a quite reliable model we haven't seen mentioned much until now, has stuck with Western Florida.

All models then take the storm into Georgia to North Carolina, varying in strength from a monster cat 4-5 to a category 1 depending on land interaction with Florida.

The reason you have not seen the UKMet model much until now is because the NHC hasn't mentioned it much, but they finally have started mentioning it. It has actually got one of the best track verifications to this point with Irma, and so we will begin to mention the UKMet model, which also runs around the same time as the European model.

What does this mean for landfall?

The NHC track is now the best place to get forecast landfall points. They have taken all of the models and their performances and created this track. Put simply, the chances are extremely high for a South Florida landfall, and South Florida is under the gun in the 3 day cone. What it does from there depends on where it makes landfall. A western landfall puts Tampa/Orlando/Jacksonville and the entire Florida peninsula at greatest risk. A Southern landfall puts Miami and the East Coast of Florida at greatest risk. A graze puts Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina at greatest risk. We will not truly know which one of these scenarios will happen until we are much too close to make plans.

The advice for those living in the area of the cone is to be enacting your plans throughout the day, whether it means evacuating or staying put. This storm is an extremely dangerous storm with the potential to maintain category 5 strength up until landfall. The images coming out of places where this has hit are devastating.

What are the next updates?

At 11:00 ET we will get an NHC track update and discussion.

At 11:30 ET we will get a GFS model initializaiton.

at 2:00 PM we will get an intermediate NHC advisory and a new Euro model, as well as a new UKMet.

●

 
Looks like Jose, and Disturbance #38 behind it, are forecast to curl up into the Atlantic, so hopefully no threat to the mainland. A few islands may get it again though.

 
Should be a relatively quiet day today.  Won't make any big landfall during daytime today.  Just model watching.

 
culdeus said:
Should be a relatively quiet day today.  Won't make any big landfall during daytime today.  Just model watching.
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You thinking that the 2pm update should give us a pretty accurate picture for the next 48-72 hours?  Or could it change drastically from there?

 
pantherclub said:
You thinking that the 2pm update should give us a pretty accurate picture for the next 48-72 hours?  Or could it change drastically from there?
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NOAA alone is making 6 flights into it today.  Will get AF flights and other data.  I think the way I've heard it explained is that by 6pm today they will be able to be within 125miles +/- and be able to say with 100% confidence the region in which there is a 50% chance of seeing Cat 3+ winds anywhere in florida.  (if that makes sense).

 
GFS haters out there are picking apart the fact that when the model runs it is always initializing to the east of the storm, producing a stronger, more eastern track.  

Funny to see people picking the model they like the "best" based on the results they would prefer.  Also called "wishcasting".  

Tampa NWS just revised track to center it on a east coast run.  

 
pantherclub said:
You thinking that the 2pm update should give us a pretty accurate picture for the next 48-72 hours?  Or could it change drastically from there?
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This is really a horrible track to nail down because it will be parallel to the coastline of Florida. Any errors in this track can have drastic results as to whether a direct hit on Miami happens, or it stays offshore for Florida and then makes landfall further north. Like I said above, a 50 mile error can make a big difference with this track, as opposed to a 50 mile error on a track that is perpendicular to the coast. 

We are waiting for the track to turn more northerly, and that isn't forecast to begin to happen until sometime late Friday or Saturday. Things to watch for include how far north or south from the current forecast track the storm is going. The models may help us on the next couple of runs to help understand how the hurricane is forecast to interact with other systems that are the ones that will determine the exact path of Irma. So it is pretty much a wait and see until tomorrow at least. 

 
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culdeus said:
NOAA alone is making 6 flights into it today.  Will get AF flights and other data.  I think the way I've heard it explained is that by 6pm today they will be able to be within 125miles +/- and be able to say with 100% confidence the region in which there is a 50% chance of seeing Cat 3+ winds anywhere in florida.  (if that makes sense).
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yes that makes sense, and again thanks for your input you are especially dialed into this and give great updates

 
Don Quixote said:
I take it Turks and Caicos is in the path tonight?  (Honeymooned there.  Beautiful place.)
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T&C supposed to get hit night time.  Right now the track has the eye threading the needle and not actually making landfall on any of the populated spots.  

You can sort of see how it's called here:

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0c72fc57a6b5c60d0d259c6296b0a2c42a931f760ed0736e0cd74754b1fc93db.gif

I mean if you had to pick a path for Thursday/Friday I think this is how you avoid a lot of damage :shrug:  

 
So the hotel in Pensacola left a voice mail for me to confirm my reservation thru Travelocity. I'm supposed to have until Saturday to cancel. I am going to ignore it for now. I'm a probable to leave but don't want to be on I10 in the madness unless I have to.

 
Is there no practical way to say the south bound side of the interstate becomes one lane each way?  Why does it have to be all or nothing?  Can't people get follow simple directions like, stay to the right?

 
WhatDoIKnow said:
How does Cuba, the Bahamas and other islands in the Caribbean keep coming back from hurricanes?  They seem to get hit hard at least once a year.  Have we even heard of devastation of Cuba in the past?
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Dunno, but if we learned anything yesterday it is that short of a direct hit from a 3+ eyewall these places are built like tanks.  The islands that took 3+ winds seem reasonably ok.  

 
culdeus said:
Is there no practical way to say the south bound side of the interstate becomes one lane each way?  Why does it have to be all or nothing?  Can't people get follow simple directions like, stay to the right?
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you know the answer to this already.

 
cosjobs said:
wtf do we do if someone dies?
Click to expand...
Lets hope and pray nothing like that happens but one thing I can say is this is a pretty tight community for a random message board where most folks have never actually meet anyone.  

 
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culdeus said:
Dunno, but if we learned anything yesterday it is that short of a direct hit from a 3+ eyewall these places are built like tanks.  The islands that took 3+ winds seem reasonably ok.  
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just saw pics of Anguilla (scroll down), which was right in the thick of things when it was still Cat 4 or 5. lots of roofs lost, windows blown in and power lines down, bunch of stick framed buildings down (including most tourists' favorite spot, the pumphouse). but most of the buildings- at least from the pictures- look structurally ok. concrete and concrete block is the typical construction standard and they seem to have endured. 

 
culdeus said:
Is there no practical way to say the south bound side of the interstate becomes one lane each way?  Why does it have to be all or nothing?  Can't people get follow simple directions like, stay to the right?
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Unlike other states, Florida will not enact Contra-Flow. Instead their plan is to open the shoulder as an extra travel lane. What could possibly go wrong with people running out of gas?

http://www.firstcoastnews.com/news/new-hurricane-evacuation-plan-makes-use-of-right-shoulder-on-i-10/444924340

 
The margin of error encompasses essentially a worst case scenario for a Miami and a hurricane that just causes rain (for Florida).

All depends when the move north happens and the closer we get to that move, the more accurate all the models will be.

 
culdeus said:
Wow. This can't be real.  How has this never bit them in the ### before? 

I thought Florida was THE contra flow state that invented the entire concept.  
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Of ALL the states to use Contra Flow, You would THINK the giant ####### North-South peninsula that has the highest rate of hurricane landfall and only ONE path to flee to safety would be a prime candidate for this sort of thing.... :lol:  

 
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shader said:
The margin of error encompasses essentially a worst case scenario for a Miami and a hurricane that just causes rain (for Florida).

All depends when the move north happens and the closer we get to that move, the more accurate all the models will be.
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Yup.  We won't really know anything until Saturday/Sunday.

 
Henry Ford said:
Yup.  We won't really know anything until Saturday/Sunday.
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We should be able to narrow the field of uncertainty by tomorrow, as the models will get a chance to get a better grip on the trough that is expected to pull Irma north. It won't be exact, but could show a reduced risk to the west coast of Florida.

 
This obviously pales in comparison to what Florida will go through, but what are the odds of Irma affecting my wife's flight to Baltimore next Wednesday.  Is Maryland far enough North?

 
Well I'm not sure if I mentioned this in here or not but we made the decision to stay.

the wife has nightmares about getting on the road north and running out of gas even though the tank is full and we have 20G in reserve.  Also made the valid point that the storm could just follow us and depending on where we go may not have a place to stay.

everything is all set.  Shutters are up.  Generator was serviced and running.  We have enough water to fill a pool.  Need more beer, this is a real problem.

wish us luck of you outside the state.  If you are inside the state keep us posted and drop me a PM if you get into trouble.  Boynton beach here.

 
Speaking of beer our local breweries are canning filtered water and selling it at can cost.

they are also blowing out inventory and are going to fill all tanks with water for the aftermath.

due south

 copperpoint

nobo

 
The Ref said:
Well I'm not sure if I mentioned this in here or not but we made the decision to stay.

the wife has nightmares about getting on the road north and running out of gas even though the tank is full and we have 20G in reserve.  Also made the valid point that the storm could just follow us and depending on where we go may not have a place to stay.

everything is all set.  Shutters are up.  Generator was serviced and running.  We have enough water to fill a pool.  Need more beer, this is a real problem.

wish us luck of you outside the state.  If you are inside the state keep us posted and drop me a PM if you get into trouble.  Boynton beach here.
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I set up a check-in thread for Irma for those of you staying in the path.

https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/759929-hurricane-irma-roll-call/

Stop by occasionally and let us know you're alive.  Others will do the same.

 
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